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Analysis part 1: (God I hope I get further before my nighttime commitment... running out of time)
Prom: The Potstirrer
Far and away the most suspicious of the people for many reasons: (Smallest first)
1) The late powerplay against Hapa.
This strikes of desperation. Honestly, Prome's thoughts about this being an elaborate bussing of the mob boss to garner town support occurred to me as well. So... instead of jumping out and making unsubstantiated claims, I wanted to get a tally of everything surrounding GK and his fall. See this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=42#840
Guess what I found? Little and less. There are straws there potentially that you could attempt to grasp at... and hell I even organized them for you if you'd care to read, but there are far more conflicting accounts than confirming.
2) I hate everything about this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=32#624
In an effort to make up for lurking, he begins an epic sized thread with nothing but clouding language and conjecture. The first two paragraphs are nothing but throwing sand in the air.
Damn, now I have to take a step back every time I think you are scummy and try to decide if it is just because you annoy the hell out of me with your attitude or if you actually appear scummy. Still leaning red.
*snip
Iamperfection feels very scummy here, he plays on the emotional side to avoid making a case. He has stated that my posting feels 'weird' to him but doesn't have a case to make. This feels like it has a scum motivation: creating pressure on a townie without backing it up with a case or a vote. This leaves him open to jumping on a bandwaggon or not; town doesn't need to be wishy washy.
Misunderstood my fluffy sidenote as an attempt at undermining Dandel:
What was your aha moment? I don't get it from your post and I would love to know what you have learned, or think you have learned about our flowery friend.
In answer: + Show Spoiler +I'm sorry you misunderstood. My sidenote has nothign to do with Dandel. I was saying Dandel's post gave me the persepctive to not fear death, because as a vanilla townie I will vindicated in the end.
The post continues, but basically there's no analysis in the post, just conjecture and spraying attentions any which way.
People on Prom's suspicious list at end of post in order of suspiciousness:
Sid (duh the vote)
Axero
Dandel
Lvdr
Shady
YH
3) Operation Deflection.
If we could please open to Page 3 of the Promethelax filter:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&user=251061¤tpage=3
This is where I'm getting the name. There isn't a post in this that wasn't designed to obscure the intentions of the group at large. The only saving grace in this page is that Prome doesn't discriminate and is willing to cast doubt on now named Mafia:
Mkfuba isn't here and I don't like it. But why only push him? There are a tonne of lurkers this game. Why are you tunneling one when Shady has been an active lurker, Kronen has barely posted, GK is "the champion lurker"
Why focus on just one of them?
But, this post comes suspiciously before GK's lengthy reiteration of Prom's vote for Sideni. (Almost like he knew the GK post was incoming...) It's worth noting that vast majority of votes on the bottom of the page (the ones that don't call for a recount) are designed to refute or challenge unvotes on now strongly suspected townies. There's one exception: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=36#712 but even that exception springboards into further confusion and distraction when Hapa begins the hunt of GK.
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Summary and hypothesis:
Promethelax set out to obscure any notion and distract town efforts up until the final vote because he knew at least one of his mafia cohort would be unable to respond. When his time ran out, he cut his losses and mustered a makeshift and rushed defense. At this juncture he saw it as his only option to attempt to unseat a seemingly unstoppable force.
Personal note regarding the GK vote: Hot damn did we dodge a bullet. If GK had offered his login info to fellow mafia to respond even once on the lead-up things could've gone drastically differently. The biggest confirming factor in the lead-up to my eyes was the lurkiness and lack of self-defense. It's too obvious to jump into Hapa's redirect as mafia that close to deadline... The only way to refute would be GK coming back from the dead....
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@ Kronen - what are your thoughts on ShadySands, mkfuba, and YourHarry? There's a good chance that the last scum (since one is probably Promethelax) is in that group + you.
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Alrighty I'm out for an hour or two.
I wish you all the best of luck surviving the NK! Hope to see you on the other side of the deadline, but if not, I think I've made all my reads known. My scumteam is currently Promethelax and mkfuba07. Please lynch Promethelax before making too many snap judgements about Scum #2 though.
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Ugggh... typos you see as soon as you post haunt me.
For any glaring errors/omissions you see in either of please don't hesitate to let me know. Took alot of time today to marshal this effort... Has to be a more efficient way of collating that information than just flat out re-reading and time-stamping.
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On August 12 2012 06:30 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2012 05:18 mkfuba07 wrote:Right now I would still say Shady. In addition to my previous post here + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#884 , I have more thoughts concerning his actions around the time of the vote. On August 11 2012 07:43 Hapahauli wrote:On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? Basically, he's been lurking, he hasn't contributed any original analysis, and he's tunneled suspicion on Axero/Sideni. He's taken safe positions while never sticking his neck out. Especially in light of how insane D1 has been, I find this strange. TBH, I'm just incredibly unsatisfied with the current lynch candidates (Sideni and Lvdr) - I think they're bad townies. He doesn't accept Hapa's reasoning here, when I see no flaws with it from a pro-town standpoint. Only after Kronen clinches the vote for GK does Shady actually confirm his vote on Lvdr. He uses Lvdr's "suspicious" decision as reasoning, when I don't see it as suspicious at all. At this point, his vote will not sway the vote either way, so I don't see it as particularly townish to stubbornly stick with his original vote. He also earns some towncred along the way for not bandwagoning. He even included this post that establishes his willingness to go either way if given a reason: On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:
I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? But when his vote no longer impacts the lynch, he doesn't change his vote despite valid reasons being presented. Here's the problem with your logic. After Kronen clinched the vote, no matter which way I voted, you can use that to argue that I'm scum. If I voted GK, then it can look like a scum trying to look innocent, and if I voted someone else, then you can argue the WIFOM-ish argument you just posted. What happened is that about 30 minutes before the lynch, I came into the thread and saw a huge pileup on GoodKarma when most of the D1 discussion had been around Sideni and Lvdr. I was really confused, and asked for people to help me recap what had happened. After that, I thought that the case on GK was not as good as the one on Lvdr, so I went with the Lvdr vote. Someone tell me why this is scum behavior?
The bit you're referring to was my reasoning through Hapa's belief of you as leaning pro-town, when I don't feel as though sticking to your vote was evidence of that. Your vote had no impact, so it was not a danger. Your sticking to your guns was as motivation-revealing as my switch to GK (as well as Kronen's vote, since his came only two minutes before mine).
Essentially, I feel like sticking to your vote was a null tell at best, but the vote itself was scum motivated.
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All of Kronen's post-lynch posts give me strong townie vibes. I don't place much weight on how/when he voted, but the amount of effort he's taken to make the situation easy to analyze makes him my strongest town read out of the rest (excluding myself).
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After everyone FoSing or voting me I assume I'll live through the night. Thanks I guess.
I'll save mkfuba for the day cycle, we'll see how it goes.
I think YH is null, I honestly can't read him at all.
Kronen is somewhat townie to me. His posting has been pretty pro-town doing all the leg work even if he doesn't know how to do the analysis.
Shady I still think is scummy with Hapa and Dandel.
On August 12 2012 03:05 Hapahauli wrote:HAHAHAHAHA oh my god you think I'm mafia. 100% desperation right there. Also, scumslip: No town reads because you don't want to give scum information they already have? Lastly, respond to this or I'll vote you the second D2 starts: Show nested quote +@ Kronen, mkfuba, YourHarry, Promethelax, and ShadySands - I want to hear your thoughts on the other 4 players before the night is over. No exceptions.
TOWN, make sure you hold each and every person on this list accountable for the above!
Are you actually retarded? I didn't want to put my town reads into the thread since mafia knows who is town but no who I think is town. Herp derp.
On August 12 2012 03:41 Lvdr wrote:
@Prome: Please answer these questions regarding Hapa busing.
1. Why was the godfather bused instead of a goon?
2. Why was the strategy to bus instead of taking out Sideni/Axero with a easily disguiseable mislynch?
I don;t think the role is as important as the player. GK was lurking if the other two mafia are active they would be better to keep around for the end game.
Look at all these 'confirmed townies' seems like a good strategy to me.
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So humor me Promethelax - How does me bussing GK make sense? Why would I bus the godfather who had zero suspicion on him? Also, why on earth would GK consent to getting bussed given the lack of suspicion on him.
If you can answer these questions coherently, I'll take you seriously.
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Shouldn't the daypost be now?
Or is night 48 hours also?
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Raypost be a bit late...sry for inconvenience
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Alright, going to sleep !
I'll see you guys tomorrow.
I'd still like to have some feedback on my "case" on promethelax and Mkfuba scumteam.
Just your thoughts. Just to see if it's not a mistake from me to think what I'm thinking and to see if people agree.
Hell, just because last case I made was bad (I know this one is more like 2-3 arguments) and now that I find something interesting, I want to know if it's worth something ! :D
See you later and I seriously think that we will win this game ! :D
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@Hapa per your request:
mkfuba: My read of apportioned thought and being slow to anger shaped a large part of how I viewed the early game up until first night, perhaps to my detriment. It locked me into inaction in the final moments leading up to the vote. I shaped how I viewed the first day around the mkfuba case against lvdr, and largely respected how both parties handled themselves. While Lvdr and Dandel were engaging in the Sideni debacle, mkfuba was one of the few people who kept out and refused to speculate, earning brownie points from me. Granted, that's largely due to the ongoing spat between the fuba and Lvdr.
Fuba largely kept his nose clean on the lead-up to the final vote. I'm unable to read whether that was designed or not, so I won't speculate. And in the day since, I haven't found anything particularly objectionable or note-worthy about his analysis of other people. Honestly... null read. I err on the side of liking the way he approaches problems.
Also, I'm still fuzzy on the modkill and the explanations/implications.
YourHarry: Strikes me as the class clown whose humor just hits wrong. Too many of his posts are just bleh... One thing that I actively found suspicious was the claim to have not checked his alignment PM until well into the game. While I find the "Gawd! He was only drunk! You can't hold his words against him!" post suspicious: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=24#470 I at the same time fail to see the point (other than general confusion).
This interchange actually gave more credence to the Lvdr case in my mind at the time. A non-related third party is coming to aid of someone just befuddled me.
He then jumps back into his "Why didn't you tell me what I misunderstood? God, read my mind better!" defense. Careful scum to just incompetent up until this point.
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I need to leave for a party at 8 now... If still alive, I'll respond to the suspicions of YH and SS on my behalf. Largely, I don't find exception to them, they're just thin.
fluffy sidenote:+ Show Spoiler +I'm also kinda sad my When Harry Met Sally joke feel flat... oh well.
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Kronen the VT was killed. Flavorlessly.
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Are we allowed to post freely until the Daypost? Or should we stop until it pops up?
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I didn't expect it, but I see why it happened. He was being very helpful to town.
Though I would have expected one of the confirmed townies first, since the rest of us are going to pick ourselves apart...
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EPT
