EPT/in
This will be my 4th game.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXII
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
/in This will be my 4th game. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 23 2012 13:18 Promethelax wrote: Nice, I look forward to playing with you from the beginning. Hopefully from the same side of the coin this time :D | ||
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Keirathi
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!!FUN!! or maybe even !!SCIENCE!! | ||
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Keirathi
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Now let annihilate this infestation (including you marv, /shoo). | ||
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Keirathi
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If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum. Some policy discussion: Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis. Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis. Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles? I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early. | ||
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On July 27 2012 06:45 Promethelax wrote: No, we do not. We can no-lynch by making sure that no single candidate has a majority on them. Correct. We can engineer a no-lynch, but everyone HAS to vote. If we are able to ##Vote No-Lynch is up to the hosts discretion, but in a previous game with ghost as the host, we weren't able to, so to no-lynch we had to spread our votes out. | ||
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On July 27 2012 06:53 Promethelax wrote: I've only seen that as a possibility in a plurality lynch while we are playing a majority lynch. Different mechanics. So Keir: any thoughts yet? Shall we lynch Obvious for being obviously scum? and keep the pattern going, shall we attack Zork for being unable to answer my vague questions or try to lynch one of the two of us for being too active? All of the above. Lynch EVERYTHING! Nah, I just hope more people show up so we can get the ball rolling. | ||
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I approve. | ||
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On July 27 2012 07:19 aRyuujin wrote: its quite clear that he is breadcrumbing that his role is that of a dick Haha. Where's my +1 button  | ||
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On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote: Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on Keirathi K (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote: First things first: If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum. Some policy discussion: Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis. Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis. Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles? I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early. 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI. I think you misunderstood. I am not claiming RB at all. I just mentioned it after reading through the possible roles list to see if anyone should claim (IE, self-aware millers should *ALWAYS* claim day1, there's no reason not to), and I remembered we had a discussion about town-aligned roleblockers claiming on day1 in I Can't Believe It's Not Themed game, and whether or not they should ever use their powers. I was just commenting on the set-up, not some pseudo-claim or anything. | ||
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Keirathi
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On July 27 2012 08:24 Keirathi wrote: I think you misunderstood. I am not claiming RB at all. I just mentioned it after reading through the possible roles list to see if anyone should claim (IE, self-aware millers should *ALWAYS* claim day1, there's no reason not to), and I remembered we had a discussion about town-aligned roleblockers claiming on day1 in I Can't Believe It's Not Themed game, and whether or not they should ever use their powers. I was just commenting on the set-up, not some pseudo-claim or anything. EBWOP: I meant I think you were misunderstanding my intentions. I assume you understood what I was saying. Also, everyone can just call me Keir. Its much easier that way, and most everyone who knows my by this name call me Keir already. | ||
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On July 27 2012 08:42 MrMedic wrote: Well, I might as well introduce my self. I have never played mafia before and wanting to try it out on TL this is my frist mafia game. I hope everyone has a good time. Nice! Your first game is always so intense, and it can be quite daunting. Some tips: trust your reads, be confident in your cases, and don't get frustrated when people inevitably point fingers at you. If you can do those things, you should be right at home here! | ||
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At the same time, you can't just give people a free ride for lurking. Like Mordanis pointed out + Show Spoiler + Mordanis wrote: Easiest way for scum to win is to have town all say "Yeah, Lurkers are a bad target, we'll always lynch our best read". Its a pretty common scum strategy to lurk while the active townies FOS all over each other, and eventually kill themselves. It's a balancing act of deciding if people are "lurking with intent" or just townies not posting much. | ||
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On July 27 2012 12:18 Golbat wrote: Keir: I'm not sure if you understood my post, but I probably wasn't all that clear. What I meant was, if we have no solid reads on who might be scum, then we can lynch a lurker. But, if we do have a good idea of who might be scum, we have to prioritize investigating/lynching them over taking the easy lynch of a lurker. Basically I think that policy lynching lurkers before considering people who are even the least bit scummy is a bad play. On the flip side, policy lynching liars is not a bad play, because the only reason to lie is because you're scum (apart from potentially claiming VT when actually a blue role, I think). Not really misunderstood, we're just communicating the same things in different ways. I wasn't disagreeing with you, I was agreeing but with the stipulation that at some point we have to pressure the lurkers or we give scum a "get out of jail free" card. | ||
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On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote: Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler + way too much!!!! I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. Your whole case was based on a false premise: that I was pseudo-claiming RB. Like I said immediately after you posted, that is not the case at all. I am not roleblocker. Just making sure everyone knows. As far as Ver's quote: I made one post discussing one blue role out of the 4 (5 if you count Mason as a blue role) possible town power roles. Again, I was mentioning it because it was brought up in a previous game, so might as well head off the discussion early and make my stance known (just for reference, my stance is that if we have a town RBer, he should *NOT* day 1 claim, and he should be very careful with his powers, erring to the side of not using it unless hes 90% sure he's blocking a scum). | ||
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On July 27 2012 14:03 Shady Sands wrote: As if my last post didn't make it clear already: ##Vote Mordanis Where is Ange777? If he doesn't show up prior to the vote tally I may consider changing my vote to him. His tag says he's in Germany, so its like 7am there. I imagine he should be around some time soon. | ||
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Keirathi
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I mostly agree with your assessment of Mordanis. I feel like it would be a really silly play for a mafia to try to pull this early. It *WAS* a suspiciously weak case though, but mostly I feel like it was a townie trying to find something to push rather than a scum trying to start a bandwagon. I'll be keeping my eye on him though, that's for sure. About your suspects: aRyuujin I don't really have much to comment about him. I feel like its too early to start qualifying people as lurkers. It is the middle of the night in US times, so I suspect a lot of people are sleeping. MrMedic In his longest post, he did have some good insight despite how hard the post was to follow. He noted how each point of the Mordanis case against me seemed to be trying to paint me dying in a good light. Would definitely like to hear more from him, hopefully in an easier to follow writing style next time though. Promethelax People have to work and sleep. I've played with Prom before, I have no doubt that he'll be active when he has time. People have to work and sleep, they can't be active 24 hours a day. That being said, Prom has been scum in most (all?) of his previous games, so I'm definitely keeping an eye on him  | ||
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In my last game, someone proposed a really silly plan early in day 1 to "generate discussion". Turns out he was scum. Obviously I'm not lumping you into the same category as him, but that's the kind of discussion that WIFOM leads to. Making cases keeps conversation rolling, but base them on facts rather than WIFOM please. But at least you were right that I'm not roleblocker! | ||
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On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote: Keir He hasn't even called out his accuser as being scummy at all. On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote: Mord I really like the OMGUS! vote though, <3. So you call Mord out for OMGUS'ing you, but want me to OMGUS him? | ||
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On July 28 2012 05:24 Golbat wrote: Okay, now I'm back. It looks like pretty much everyone else in the thread seems to think I'm scum. Well that's not good, because i'm not. You all seem to think that my incredibly poor play has something to do with me being scum, when that's not the case at all. I'm town. I'm very town, I'm just bad. I Honestly thought all of my posts were helpful when I posted them. I can see now why they aren't. I also think you can do better than lynching me. I propose instead that today we lynch someone who hasn't been a part of the conversation much, as it's entirely possible that the mafia has decided to sit back and let me and Mord go at it while the town analyzes itself to pieces. I feel that in that regard, Keir has been suspiciously quiet so far. Besides defending himself from Mord's suspicions early on, and this post, + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 15:32 Keirathi wrote: @goodkarma: I mostly agree with your assessment of Mordanis. I feel like it would be a really silly play for a mafia to try to pull this early. It *WAS* a suspiciously weak case though, but mostly I feel like it was a townie trying to find something to push rather than a scum trying to start a bandwagon. I'll be keeping my eye on him though, that's for sure. About your suspects: aRyuujin I don't really have much to comment about him. I feel like its too early to start qualifying people as lurkers. It is the middle of the night in US times, so I suspect a lot of people are sleeping. MrMedic In his longest post, he did have some good insight despite how hard the post was to follow. He noted how each point of the Mordanis case against me seemed to be trying to paint me dying in a good light. Would definitely like to hear more from him, hopefully in an easier to follow writing style next time though. Promethelax People have to work and sleep. I've played with Prom before, I have no doubt that he'll be active when he has time. People have to work and sleep, they can't be active 24 hours a day. That being said, Prom has been scum in most (all?) of his previous games, so I'm definitely keeping an eye on him On July 27 2012 11:46 Keirathi wrote: @Goldbat: At the same time, you can't just give people a free ride for lurking. Like Mordanis pointed out + Show Spoiler + Mordanis wrote: Easiest way for scum to win is to have town all say "Yeah, Lurkers are a bad target, we'll always lynch our best read". Its a pretty common scum strategy to lurk while the active townies FOS all over each other, and eventually kill themselves. It's a balancing act of deciding if people are "lurking with intent" or just townies not posting much. I had to sleep and go to work. I'm not really sure how that is "lurking". People have obligations outside the game, which I also mentioned (but you didn't quote that, of course, because it would make your case weaker). Just reading through your filter so far, I feel like you are saying "Oh shit, I made a mistake. Now how can I fix it?" The problem wasn't voting Mordanis early. You voted him without giving a solid reason why, then as soon as someone called you out on it, you backed off with "Sorry, I'm an over-zealous noob." Being wrong doesn't make you scum, but not having conviction and flip-flopping that fast is certainly suspicious. As far as "not contributing to the scumhunt", I'm not going to make bad cases just to put pressure on people. Like I also said, making cases is what keeps the game moving, but when they are just bad cases you give the scum ammunition to push their own agendas. | ||
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On July 28 2012 06:36 Mordanis wrote: I'm starting to get a really bad feeling about Shady. Remember his post that said that no game in 20 lynched scum D1? + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 09:02 Shady Sands wrote: So pretty much, I looked through about 20 mafia games and found not a single night one lynch resulting in a red kill. This suggests one thing: Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. Here are the D1 lynches from several games: NMM XXI: blue NMM XX: red NMM XIX: blue NMM XVIII: green NMM XVII: red NMM XVI: blue (I couldn't find XV or XIV, so I chose to go to the SNMMs) SNMM XI: red SNMM X: green SNMM IX: green So we have 3 blues lynched, 3 VT lynched, and 3 scum lynched. So it would appear that in Newbie mini mafia games, there is about a 1/3 chance of lynching scum D1. With 3/13 chance a random lynch would hit scum (~24%), and historically a 1/3 chance of hitting scum through hunting, the choice is clear. This is for future reference really, as we're already hunting. But this brings up the fact that Shady almost certainly lied. Now there is sometimes a reason for a townie to lie. If it opens up an avenue for them to discover scum, or take one for the team, or accomplishes another goal it can be a boon to lie to the town. On the other hand, by suggesting that scum hunting D1 is useless, Shady is 1) discouraging discussion (why discuss when it only lowers the probability of hitting scum?), 2) stalling the game (mafia wants to stall as long as possible. they use their kp regardless of where our lynch ends up), and 3) trying to influence newbies' thinking (if analysis/scum hunt isn't the main priority, then mafia get off free for mistakes while being able to penalize some other player. This goes with stalling). In short, Shady lied in a pretty baldfaced manner, and the lie only serves the interest of mafia. Also, after reading through Obvious's filter last game, I saw that his behavior was almost identical to Golbat's. Golbat, you need to contribute, because if you don't, you're going to be looking even scummier. But I have seen almost identical play from a townie (Obvious was lynched D1 though), so for now I am going to switch my vote. ##Unvote ##Vote: Shady_Sands To be fair, he said he looked through 20 mafia games (which I assumed was an exaggeration, but I'll let him clarify), not that he looked through the *LAST* 20 games, or specifically looked at newbie games. Overall, I'm leaning townie on Shady despite the case against him. He feels like a townie getting caught up in wild conspiracy/connection theories rather than a scum. I don't think scum can be quite that obvious about it, especially this early into day 1. | ||
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On July 28 2012 07:39 Golbat wrote: Of course people have to sleep and work. But how can we tell if you're sleeping/working or just lurking if you just abruptly stop posting in the middle of a discussion. Context clues would be a good start. My tag says I'm in the US, and my last post was around 3:30 am CDT or so. I think its a pretty easy assumption that I went to sleep. On July 28 2012 07:39 Golbat wrote: What do you mean I didn't have a solid reason to vote for Mordanis? I meant you didn't make a case about why his post was scummy. I mean, you SAID it was scummy, but you just questioned him without firmly stating WHY you thought it was scummy. + Show Spoiler + Golbat wrote:From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt. was the closest you came to a real reason, but thats pretty WIFOMyYou then followed that quote up with questioning Mordanis' reply, then immediately afterwards voting him. It's just suspicious that you jumped on the bandwagon on the first person getting any real heat, but then flip-flopped off of him so quickly. You can't keep using being a noob as an excuse. EVERYONE is a noob, thats a given. On July 28 2012 07:39 Golbat wrote: You could read over someone's filter and point out inconsistencies I guess you forgot where I pointed out a perceived inconsistency in your list post. You deflected it, but to say I haven't pointed out anything is ludicrous, especially when it was directed at you. | ||
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On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote: I still would like to assert my opinion that removing lurkers from the game on day one is the most valuable play for town. Obviously, lurkers are hard to read. Mafia can easily hide as lurkers without any worry of slipping up. Meanwhile, day one, the most vocal people are sure to say some things that don't resonate quite right with the town. It is easy to start a lynch bandwagon on these people, while the lurkers sit back and provide no further information about themselves or their agendas. Lynch the vocal individuals day one, and you'll know just as little about the lurkers come day two. I think its folly to assume that all the mafia are lurkers. If mafia sits back and lets the town lead discussion each day, then when it gets to be "do or die" time, they don't have any influence in discussion and swinging votes. If you want to see how a "good" scum plays, check out Promethelax's filter from Newbie XIX. He went out of his way early to get people on his side, and by the end of the game he had everyone in the town eating out of his hands because he was active and involved in the town proceedings. In fact, 2 of the 3 scum in that game were the "town leaders", while only 1 was actually lurking. On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote: In the quote below he acknowledged himself as a smart suspect (which I find it hard to believe a townie would do). Then just moves on and redirects his discussion towards MrMedic and then other already discussed candidates. Redirection and "blending in with trending town arguements" are scum plays. I don't see why a townie wouldn't recognize that they are potential suspects to everyone else. In fact, that quote actually makes me less suspicious of him because he didn't feel the need to spend a ton of time defending himself and instead carried on with his own reads. On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote: Also, a smaller point: your analysis is one of the most important things you can bring to the town, so why does aRyuujin encase it in spoilers? Maybe this is his writing style, or maybe it's because he doesn't want people following his analysis closely. But it does feel like a smart thing for mafia to try. Thats a big maybe considering thats exactly what filters are for; to follow people's changing thoughts and patterns. If he didn't want people following up on what he said, it seems like it would make more sense to just not say it. That said, I'll concede this point for now and read through his filter again and keep an eye on him. | ||
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I assume karma, but you quoted my post. | ||
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On July 28 2012 11:56 goodkarma wrote: Lurkers are a good target, especially when you don't have any good leads to go off of. That's the whole problem with your argument. Within 48 hours we should ALWAYS have a good lead to go off of. I don't see how anyone as town can read through day 1 and not have any reads at all on the other players in the game. Even if those reads are wrong, without them the discussion grinds to a halt, and our eventual lynch doesn't give us any information even if they flip scum. I don't disagree that townies lurking is a bad thing for town. The more townies lurk, the easier it is for a scum or two to blend in with the crowd. But certainly they can't ALL lurk. That's a recipe for them losing. Your posts, however, seem to be attempting to shift the scumhunt from the active people onto the lurkers. Every time someone starts pushing reads, you chime in with another post about lurkers. That kind of thinking is what causes chaos. People need to be posting thoughts and discussion based on what has been posted, not on what hasn't been posted. You can WIFOM all day about someone who hasn't posted anything, but its just speculation. I agree that we need to encourage people to post, but lurking isn't inherently scummy. About your case on Ryu; I agree with you that he hasn't posted anything of substance yet, which is bad. Neither has ~half of the town, though. I just give him some townie points back for not feeling the need to defend himself. He's pretty thoroughly a null read for me. @Ryu: I kind of wish you would stop posting in haikus though. It was novel for a bit, but it feels like you dont have enough depth to your messages because you are using the artificial sentence structure. | ||
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Again, my fault for not reading carefully enough. | ||
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Golbat (as an aside, am I the only person that has trouble typing Golbat instead of Goldbat?) :[
Two other people that I am minorly interested in: goodkarma I find repeatedly pushing to have lurkers lynched is an anti-town trait. Our goal is to lynch scum. You claim it's impossible to make solid reads on day 1, but without people making reads, our ability to get successful lynches later in the game diminishes. Repeatedly trying to sheep us back onto lurkers and away from active cases is suspicious. Mordanis While I don't find his initial case against me particularly suspicious (other than the fact that it was pure WIFOM) because it could reasonably have been made by either town or mafia, he hasn't full escaped my notice. He repeatedly tried to assert that I wasn't blue. What good is that information to town, and why did he feel the need to point it out? Town never has a reason to "blue hunt", but scum always does. I really feel like Golbat is our best chance of flipping scum at the moment, so: ##Vote Golbat | ||
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Really? You were gone for 14 hours and that's all you have to comment on? What are your current feelings on my Golbat case? Mordanis? goodkarma? What about people like aRyuujin who was getting some heat as well? I don't understand how "townie" Promethelax can be a worse player than the scum Promethelax I played with in XIX. Shady Sands The main argument against him seems to be him saying + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 20:39 Shady Sands wrote: 1) He flips red, in which case we've gotten a D1 red lynch which puts us in the 75% win range 2) He flips green or blue, in which case Mordanis will be under quite a bit of pressure. On July 18 2012 08:10 Risen wrote: Why should we not lynch you? Your flip gives us so much information. If you're scum Mattchew is in a rough spot, if you're town scib/Keir are pretty much dead men (unless mason claim) He gets some townie points back though for his active scumhunting. I dunno if he's been right or not, but he has what no one else has had yet this game: conviction. He lays out his reads without caring what other people think of them. He's pushed cases on Mordanis and Golbat that for the most part had solid reasoning based on fact and logic rather than WIFOM. Honestly, I find the townie points in his filter to outweigh his scummy points, and therefor I would be highly against with lynching Shady today. There are just flat-out better candidates imo. | ||
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We need everyone to be contributing. Can you comment on the current cases please? Also aRyuujin, alan, Obvious, and Prom: you guys have overall been pretty quiet comparatively as well. At least you guys have posted cases, but you really need to step up your amount of input. EVERYONE needs to be giving reads as much as possible. Being wrong isn't a crime, but sitting back and letting others lead the discussion just means you have less "town power" and people are going to be more hesitant to listen to what you have to say when you do randomly decide to chime in. | ||
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On July 29 2012 03:55 alan133 wrote: While your defence sounded solid, it comes to do whether if we believes if you are lying about the statistics or not. What could he possibly be lying about? He said specifically that he did a thread title search for TL Mafia. Do the search yourself and compare the results. I'll admit he used a less-than-optimal set of sample data, since the TL Mafia games are generally 25-30 player games rather than minis, but he didn't lie. | ||
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My only real problem in this game is just the general lack of activity. I really, REALLY encourage people to start posting more. You make it extremely hard to win if you aren't saying anything. | ||
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GG Golbat, sorry we lynched you. My advice to you is to work on doing thing that make you SEEM town, instead of relying on saying you are town. | ||
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On July 29 2012 06:43 ghost_403 wrote: MrMedic has been pardoned for failing to vote, and will not be modkilled. Well where the heck is he? He certainly hasn't posted here. | ||
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Keirathi
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On July 29 2012 08:01 MrMedic wrote: ##Vote Golbat A bit late considering day 1 is already over and Golbat flipped Vig | ||
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On July 29 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote: I just woke up and I need to get some food. I will go through the day post again when I am back with the information we got now - Golbat flip blue. I hope everyone else do the same. This. 1000 times this. EVERYONE please read back through the thread before tomorrow with the knowledge that Golbat was a townie. I understand its a lot to read through, but the new perspective can really change your insight. | ||
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On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote: > Keirathi - that Shady's posting resembles a cop's posting in a previous game. I'd like to know how that's relevant, unless Shady was that cop, we're talking about different things completely. I fail to see how it was a "different thing completely". I was making the point that wild connection theories isn't necessarily a scum trait, and is pretty null alignment wise. I used the fact that other townies do the same thing in other games as proof. | ||
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On July 30 2012 02:29 alan133 wrote: Keirathi also said this: Are you actually discouraging discussions here? For all I know scums can push their own agendas based on these "bad" discussions as well? You are right, scum can push agendas from "bad" discussion. That's exactly what I said. My point was that pointing out every little thing that you find scummy isn't helping the thread find scum, because one or two little scummy blips does not a scum make. THAT'S the reason I put my scum reads all into one big post. Its much harder for scum to refute a lot of points at one time than one or two points on multiple occasions. Also, things like my reply to goodkarma ARE scumhunting in a sense. By saying that I find people townie, I am narrowing down my suspect list. | ||
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I already mentioned Mordanis and goodkarma here. I just want to add that since that post, Mordanis has done things to relieve my suspicion of him a bit. goodkarma, however, has made me a big more suspicious. He said he didn't want to post his reads at night, and would wait until today. How could you be so sure you weren't going to die and never get those reads out for people to see? Posting them at the end of the night would have been ideal if you actually are townie. Moving on, as bad as the Golbat lynch was, most of the people who voted him had solid reasoning. Being wrong isn't necessarily bad, it's just wrong. The only person I'm really uncomfortable with the reasoning he voted Golbat was Zorkmid. Regarding Zorkmid: I'm pretty saddened by your lack of participation so far. You've shown the ability to make constructive posts. Therefor, I question your vote onto Golbat without much in the way of explanation. Was it just to avoid a no-lynch, or did you actually think he was scum? Also, this quote bothers me: Zorkmid wrote The reason that my opinion from "lynch all liars and lynch all inactives" to not feeling as strongly about it is just because I was not aware that a non-lynch was possible. I am curious as to why the possibility of no-lynching makes you feel less certain about lynching liars and lurkers. Not stating a solid stance just because of the possibility of a no-lynch doesn't make much sense to me. However, I don't think all of the scum were in on the Golbat vote. I feel like they would have seen what was going down and realized that he would be mislynched without their help, and could have put their votes on other people to aleviate suspicion once Golbat flipped town. The people not voting for Golbat were DarthPunk, alan133, Promethelax, and Obvious.660. I'm fairly confident that at least one, possibly 2 scum are in that list. My biggest suspects out of that list are Promethelax, and Obvious.660. Promethelax He came into the game with guns blazing, with multiple posts and a promise that he was a townie. Once discussion got rolling, however, he had to leave. That in-and-of itself isn't scummy, but I feel like I must ask: Why did you sign up then? I'm left questioning your motives. You weren't around to defend your case against Shady at the deadline because you were busy. But, from my perspective, I have to think "What if he's just ambivalent as to which one of the two dies?" On top of that, given your relatively limited amount of play time, you don't seem to be trying very hard. That might not be a very nice thing to say, but you spent all of your effort tunneling Shady without responding to everything else that was going on in the thread. I know you're capable of better than that. And there's the fact that you're playing so differently this game. I know this is WIFOMy as fuck, and people should take this point with a grain of salt, but you know how hard I nailed you in XIX. So if you ARE scum again, what could you do to screw up my ability to read you? Lurking is probably the easiest option. I would be expecting townie Prom to still be posting cases like he did in XIX. Your response to my post was that you "knew everyone's alignment beforehand". Sure, you knew the alignment of the people you were making cases against, but its not like you were fabricating evidence. Making cases against someone doesn't rely on you knowing their alignment, it just relies on if you interpret their actions as scummy. The only difference as a townie is that you don't know whether their actions are based on a scum-agenda, or just mis-spoken townie. Obvious.660 A lot of my mistrust of Obvious stems from similar reasons to my distrust of Promethelax. He was extremely active in the pre- and early-game stages, then has virtually disappeared except to push Shady. However, he said Obvious.660 wroteI will do my best to get back to the thread before deadline to respond accordingly to any changes, but I'd not like getting modkilled for failing to vote. Okay, so he didn't show up again before the end of the day to defend his read, what's the big deal? Well he posted just THREE minutes after the day post saying "What the fuck."If you were around for the day post, or had the ability to be around, why weren't you there defending your read of Shady? Again, from my perspective it feels like you were just ambivalent as to which one died, and keeping your vote on Shady distanced you from the people who voted Golbat. | ||
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Our JOB as townies is to question people's motives. We have to wonder if you were really busy or using it as a convenient excuse to lurk. If you want to prove us wrong, don't shout at us that you were busy. PROVE that you can be an active, productive member of the town via constructive posts and well-reasoned arguments. | ||
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On July 30 2012 10:02 Promethelax wrote: + Show Spoiler + Back, after the night deadline but still back. I feel really bad about the minimal amount of time I've been putting into this game. I would like to say I'm sorry to my fellow towines and you're welcome to all the scum players. Keir: I /in'd this game even with limited time because I really like playing this game. I find joy in it and chose to play for that joy. I had more free time when I /in'd which was about six years before this game actually started as you may remember. I recently switched to night shifts and one of my co-workers in on vacation so I'm working fifty hours weeks mostly between dusk and dawn. I am trying to put real thoughts into my posts and give you something to work with, in all honesty I think the fact that you had me so pegged in XIX should help you here, keep an eye on me look deep into my filter whatever it is you want to do. Just know that town and I hope that my posting will prove that to you. I was tunneling Shady because he is playing scummily. I am, as I write this, looking into other people and making a case or two. I've been going back and forth in my head on the issue of where scum voted, I originally thought that Golbat couldn't have all the scum on him and than I started to think, it is day one so mislynching doesn't reflect too badly on you, bad day one reads are a fact to most players of mafia, TL mafia players don't believe in thinking through day one like any other day. But a no-lynch would be a problem for mafia, they need to kill us quickly so I was wondering about the last vote(s) on Golbat maybe a scum came over to hammer him, although as town I too would switch to ensure a lynch on d1. As such I'll be looking particularly closely at SS and Zork but am not entering their filters with the assumption that they are scum based on their votes. I'd like to take a moment to laugh about this NK, that is 100% percent of my town games where there has been an unexplained lack of a night hit. @(probably)The Medic: you da man. I just want to remind you that the Roleblocker might have blocked scum so you don't have a 100% green guy and RB, the medic might have saved so you don't have a 100% red guy. It isn't worth revealing yourself over this information, keep doing what you are doing and: thanks! On Zork, I've just read through your filter and while I don't get any real scum vibes from you (besides hammering a vigi) I also don't get townie vibes. The most important thing a townie can do is prove themselves town. Make cases, your defense, while probably true that you are/were busy doesn't add anything to town just as the fact that I was working a lot adds nothing. Make some cases backed up with evidence and commit to some reads, if you are town this helps town and if you are scum this helps town since you have to appear town let me say this: if you continue without making a case I will view you as scum. Don't leave yourself so many outs; tell us what you think of somebody and why. On to a case on GoodKarma: We begin with this early assertation that lynching lurkers is not the best idea On July 27 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote: snippy snippy I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful. Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me. snip snip Karma wants us to look for guys who are somewhere in the middle, not lurking but not leading either. Okay, that seems reasonable, I don;t agree with his opinion but it is one that makes some sense as long as he sticks with it. On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote: I still would like to assert my opinion that removing lurkers from the game on day one is the most valuable play for town. Obviously, lurkers are hard to read. Mafia can easily hide as lurkers without any worry of slipping up. Meanwhile, day one, the most vocal people are sure to say some things that don't resonate quite right with the town. It is easy to start a lynch bandwagon on these people, while the lurkers sit back and provide no further information about themselves or their agendas. Lynch the vocal individuals day one, and you'll know just as little about the lurkers come day two. -SNIP- TL;DR: My call to action: Lurkers will perish If you will follow my vote aRyuujin you're first Oh...well. I guess he changed his mind based on...something? He follows this post with an assertion that lynching a green lurker is good for town which doesn't resonate well with me. Having one less townie is bad more townies is good. Having a pants-on-head retarded townie is still better than not having them, townies are the life blood of town our win-con is getting all the scum before they get us. We need townies alive so that MYLO and LYLO are postponed, even if the townies we have suck they are an asset to town. After Golbat flips our man Karma says this On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote: Just a small update: I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same... I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him. Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too... Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...). Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town. I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made. Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. Someone who feels this strongly must have defended their read in the thread and actively worked to make sure such an obvious townie wasn't lynched. On July 29 2012 03:25 goodkarma wrote: I am going to change my vote, but first I'd like to explain a few things. Now is the time to get behind a lynch candidate, and that is the intention of this post. -SNIPPY- Since I'm still not 100% convinced that anyone is scum right now, I'm going to look at the worst case scenario. The person we lynch flips town. This makes the candidate for lynching much easier to choose. Golbat has flip-flopped on candidates several times. He seems content to try to form bandwaggons around candidates with what I consider to be a lack of satisfactory analysis of his own. This seems to be a general sentiment of several others voting for him, so I'll leave their well formulated analysis (which I mostly agree with) to stand in right now for why I'm behind this lynch. The one thing I want to add to the "Lynch Golbat" case is that even if he flips town, bandwaggoning is only going to hurt the town. Townies need to look through the arguements and think for themselves if we're going to have a shot at winning this. His multiple efforts to form bandwaggons around candidates along with his weak analysis indicates he's either a bad mafia or bad townie. If he's scum we're that much closer to winning. And if he's town: lynching a bad townie day one is still bad, but it should at least add clarity to town discussion, which is a good thing. Just very briefly, why not shady sands?: I feel that shady sands is still suspicious, mainly due to his misrepresented stats on day one lynches which he has tried to address. But he has provided some meaningful discussion for the town, and hasn't jumped on every bandwaggon he sees... I hope that everyone can get behind a candidate before the deadline. We're dangerously close to a no-lynch, and Golbat has done enough scummy things to deserve a vote. ##unvote aRyuujin ##Vote Golbat PS: + Show Spoiler + I've kind of rushed this post due to deadline. If you find anything unclear please let me know... oh, I see, all those things which you totally knew were townie traits were scum traits when you swapped on to him but you weren't really sure he would flip mafia. This seems like scum trying to distance themselves from a mislynch and buy townie cred for having the 'right' read before the flip. That is what I have for now. I hope you all will look at my case on SS from yesterday as I still feel that he is scummy, with this new look at Karma though I think that he may be even scummier. Right now I am torn between these two for my vote; I know its still early but I want to lynch scum our Power Role (or scum incompetence) has bought us an extra day, I plan on not letting it go to waste. Thank you. A well-reasoned and convincing argument like I know you are capable of. I've definitely had some suspicions of Karma, and this makes me more wary of him going forward. On July 30 2012 10:07 Zorkmid wrote: Sorry, you're right. Apologies for the tone of last post. DON'T LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN! No, I'm kidding. I understand this game can be extremely frustrating when you feel like your back is against the wall. Just work on proving your innocence through your future actions. | ||
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I listed the 5 people that I feel are scummy at this point in the game. | ||
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On July 30 2012 10:23 Promethelax wrote: You said that Obvious and I were scummy because we both changed our play after playing poorly in our last games, him as town and me as scum. Err what? I didn't reference Obvious's previous game at all. I haven't even read his previous game. | ||
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I'm not really sure which one of those two I would vote for, but I have a lot of time to make up my mind. | ||
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And WHAT? I was "unkillable" in XIX only because Hopeless was so scummy on day1 and you didn't need to try to kill me. I even spent half of my first day arguing with him being your scum partner. Both of your partners were low reads on my list when I subbed in. The only person I was really confident in, at least before the second night kill, was you and I couldn't push you anyways. | ||
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On July 30 2012 10:44 Promethelax wrote: I wanted to know why it was those two mosre than the other three. That is why you feel that your cases against them are better than the ones against Me, Mord and Zork. goodkarma - I just can't imagine a townie reasoning for his disrupting discussions and bringing us back to talking about lurkers repeatedly. Add in to that the case that you made, and for now I feel the strongest about him. Obvious.660 - I can't really nail down what makes him stick out. I mean, I laid out my points against him, but its hard to pinpoint why I feel so strongly about him. I think its mostly because his "What the fuck" post is such an obvious response as a scum trying to distance himself from the Vigi lynch. As far as Mord and Zork, their recent postings have bought some townie cred back in my eyes. Mordanis mostly for this post. His point about "Town is going about scumhunting the wrong way; we should be looking for play that hurts town but benefits scum, rather than just illogical posting" strikes me as extremely townie. Sure it could be faked, but it feels genuine to me. Plus my case about the blue hunting is relatively weak to begin with. It made me wary, and I plan to continue paying good attention to him from that point onward, but I don't think it makes him 100% scum. Zorkmid's recent post, and his frustration at people suspecting him just strikes me as townie. Again, the frustration could be faked (or hell, even scum could be frustrated), but just the fact that he cares pushes him down below GK and Obvious. As far as you, I don't really have a case against you. Its entirely WIFOM and meta. That isn't enough for me to vote you at this point. And plus, if you ARE town, then I would rather not mislynch you because I know how much effort and intelligence you can provide. Plus, my points against you have had their intended effect already. On July 30 2012 10:44 Promethelax wrote: The way you pushed your reads (at least the one on me, maybe I over emphasize it in my head because it was on me) was perfect. You stuck to your guns played it right and gave us a real run for our money in a game we essentially already won. Thank the lord for Hopeless. I think you are misremembering. I never even pushed my read on you past when you quit responding to my "notes" post. I only even mentioned you a couple times throughout the rest of the game, mainly just saying that you were "still my best scum-read but I won't push you because you have almost unanimous town support." We only ended up voting for you on the last day because Bob refused to vote for UA, and Hopeless finally realized the situation we were in and switched with me despite him saying earlier that he didn't think my notes against you were strong or convincing. We should probably quit arguing about a previous game though | ||
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On July 28 2012 14:28 Obvious.660 wrote: Shady Sands' is 100% convinced Mordanis is scum. And is willing to waiting 2 days to lynch him. This is bad play. If we identify scum, we kill them. No crazy circular logic of if x person dies then we have more information y person. Just no. Scum can scheme, they are aware of eachother. Town cannot, except in the case of Masons. Shady Sands is my current #1 scum read. #FOS: Shady Sands Sure, that doesn't necessarily make you scum. I mean, MrMedic didn't have any scumhunting whatsoever. But at least in his one real post, he had some interesting insight. I think you should be able to understand why people are suspicious of you. Again, like I said to Zorkmid: If you want people off your back, PROVE it through your actions. You have ~40 hours to change our minds. | ||
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On July 30 2012 13:48 Promethelax wrote: You are doing a good job of making it seem that you are town I just realized: that statement bothers me for some reason. I mean, objectively, I've pushed fairly hard for the lynch on our Vigi. I've spent a fair amount of post space defending your top scum read. So what exactly seems like I'm town? I don't want to sound ungrateful, but honestly I feel like I should probably be a fairly high suspect in your list. | ||
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I can confirm that this is legit. I was playing in that game. I know I've read somewhere that posting outside information was against the rules as well, but for the life of me I can't find it right now. | ||
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On July 30 2012 15:29 Promethelax wrote: Keir: since you are here what do you think of GK's case? Since you and I agree that he looks scummy how do you think he has done with his new case? His response to your first point about the lurkers was a pretty solid defense. Defense of your second point about Golbat wasn't quite as solid. The "In retrospect" point only applies if he never thought about the possibilities beforehand, which seems unlikely. Saying "Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that." before the "in retrospect" point, and the fact of the statement alone, seems to indicate some previous thinking on the subject. What I mean is, that sentence isn't something I feel like you would just randomly think about after a flip since its so important to how you scumhunt on day1. Aside from that, he makes some rather weak points when specifically building a case on you: the "a instead of my" thing is silly, the posting outside of thread contention I can understand a bit but still feel like you posting for short periods of time in other threads is alignment telling. Not much to say about the townie-town-town thing. You brushed it off as a joke but I had already jotted it down just in case I ever decide that you are scummy enough to pursue a case again I will say that I'm glad he has posted a case though. It's something to think about. | ||
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On July 30 2012 16:19 Mordanis wrote: The cool thing about having tons of time to think about the game (making pizzas isn't exactly the most intellectually challenging task on earth) is that I have time to think about a lot of abstractions. I can't read through filters or analyze, but I can think of ways to hunt scum or new ways of thinking about the game. Like this: Many mini mafia setups start with 9 town 3 scum. We're basically starting the game anew, but with a slight disadvantage in power roles and a fairly large amount of content. So I'm pretty confident! Another cool thing is that when I get back to the thread, I can read through and look at someone's name and think "Hey, I had almost forgotten they were in the game". One such player for me was Ange. Then I get to read through that player's filter and get a fairly unbiased feel on their play. So here's what I came up with my investigation. Ange was very early in jumping on Golbat's case. She FOSs and votes in these posts: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 18:11 Ange777 wrote: Hey guys. Sorry for posting this late, but I was asleep when the game started. Deadline is at 11 pm for me so I should be online for it but probably going to bed shortly after deadline. I just read through the posts and the case against Mordanis and Golbat. Mordanis: Right now I dont think he is scum. Basically people are calling him scum based on two things: Illogical arguments and persistence in his case on Keir. His post about Keir claiming blue was not very convincing, but he tried to use the little posting and information we had at that time to contribute to scum hunting. The first case made won't be of the finest quality because usually there is so little to work with. The far more important thing is to get people talking about something else than policy lynches so Mordanis was more than successful. Not changing his view on Keir directly after being called out on his poor case is not suspicious in my opinion. On the contrary, as townie you aren't afraid of being held responsible because when you make cases you are convinced they are scum. It's more the scum players who try to not gain too much attention when making cases as they might be lynched for a mislynch. So right now I have a slight town read on Mordanis. Golbat: You just unvoted Mordanis. Without an explanation. And you posted a list of every single player. I hate those lists. If you are town, you just show Mafia your entire town read. If you are scum, you can easily get town cred and posts with such a list. Why post that list? Town should makes cases, not lists. Besides that you never commented on Mordanis' case against you which is far more convincing than his first one on Keir btw. I am going to reread Golbat, but for now ##FoS Golbat On July 27 2012 18:23 Ange777 wrote: EBWODP: So what exactly is the overwhelming evidence you just found out that he isn't scum? I assume you haven't found anyone else scummier as you haven't made a case. ##Vote Golbat + Show Spoiler + Sorry for triple posting but guys where are you? :D I don't want to talk to myself ^^ Her later posts in the day are also pretty suspicious. + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 23:24 Ange777 wrote: @Promethelax: You made some good points on Shady. I must admit I missed them. I felt a strange vibe from all his fluff posts but couldn't put the finger on it. Although before reading your post I was astonished to read this: @Shady: Why would you assume that one of them has to be scum? It's not like both of them were claiming one blue role and therefore one of them had to be lying. This really seems as if you were preparing for possible mislynches. I want to hear your defense. On July 28 2012 23:03 Ange777 wrote: @Golbat: Your explanation for voting and then unvoting Mordanis is just weird. I don't understand how you can assume that he is godfather just because he was actively pursuing a poor case. Furthermore why should early voting be scummy? It is important to use your vote to pressure others and sometimes casting a vote early into a day is the only weapon you have. So just to be sure I understood you correctly, your best scum read when you unvoted was still Mordanis, you only feared to appear scum because of this early vote and therefore unvoted? I am curious because in your next post you state: So now you vote aRyujin. He already gave up the haiku style posting which seems to be your only issue with him. Any other reason why he should be lynched in your opinion? And why is Mord missing in your scum reads? @goodkarma: What? Yes, having lurkers is incredibly painful for town. Especially at MYLO or LYLO having lurkers just cripples town's ability to vote properly. But why would you even consider lynching a lurker when there are suspicious players? It's not always what they say that makes them scum but the intent behind it. And to be honest your post only deflects from the cases already made. Exactly. So why are you talking about lynching a lurker and totally ignoring existing cases? Scum? So you are saying that there is no way to have an accurate read on players before any flip. I would say it is hard but not impossible. Pressuring people for the content of their posts and not the quality of their posts allows for a good read. If instead we just ask people to be more active and talk about safe topics such as policy lynches than nothing is accomplished through this! Which by the way is exactly what you achieved with your post ... We have ~7 hours till deadline and yet the only thing you have talked about over and over again is your policy lynch. You may vote for whomever's death is most beneficial for town in your opinion but before that I want to hear you comment on the existent cases. And just to remind everyone making strong and logical cases is one of the more difficult things for scum. Therefore the easiest thing for scum is to just start a case on a lurker because let's admit it, everyone has to hate lurkers! ##FoS goodkarma And don't get me wrong. I am hundred percent behind getting rid of lurkers. So if we have vigs, please do your job! On July 29 2012 00:01 Ange777 wrote: @Obvious: While I have my suspicions about Shady I got the the feeling that Mordanis wasn't his strongest scum read especially as he soon after targeted Golbat. Your point is valid but I think it's quite common if you encounter active controversial players on day 1 to let them be and see how things go. Your filter is still pretty empty though, no other contribution than this rather sloppy case on Shady. I am still waiting for you to comment on Golbat! On July 29 2012 00:24 Ange777 wrote: No offense Shady but it took you this long to write the defense above?? How about all the other questions we posted earlier? On July 29 2012 00:35 Ange777 wrote: @Mordanis: Wait ... did you even consider Promethelax' case on Shady? Shady's latest posts have made a few people suspicious (including me) and yet you believe his posting to have improved? And then more posts where she casts suspicion on every player but Golbat. So once the lynch train is moving pretty solidly on Golbat, Ange starts to cast suspicion on other players. This turns out excellently in hindsight knowing that Golbat flips green. She gets points for agreeing with a case most players found agreeable (Even if all 3 scum voted for Golbat, 4 townies voted for Golbat, 3 for Shady, so most townies found Golbat the scummiest), points for getting in on the case very early, points for keeping the lynch going even though she suspected other players, points for distancing herself from the case against Golbat by posting mostly on other players. It's all just too perfect. She played in the way that minimized her scumminess, which strains credulity to believe meshes with belief that she had no knowledge of the flip. But we need to know the timing of her switch to truly see how suspicious her play is. The transition occurs in this post :+ Show Spoiler + On July 28 2012 23:03 Ange777 wrote: @Golbat: Your explanation for voting and then unvoting Mordanis is just weird. I don't understand how you can assume that he is godfather just because he was actively pursuing a poor case. Furthermore why should early voting be scummy? It is important to use your vote to pressure others and sometimes casting a vote early into a day is the only weapon you have. So just to be sure I understood you correctly, your best scum read when you unvoted was still Mordanis, you only feared to appear scum because of this early vote and therefore unvoted? I am curious because in your next post you state: So now you vote aRyujin. He already gave up the haiku style posting which seems to be your only issue with him. Any other reason why he should be lynched in your opinion? And why is Mord missing in your scum reads? @goodkarma: What? Yes, having lurkers is incredibly painful for town. Especially at MYLO or LYLO having lurkers just cripples town's ability to vote properly. But why would you even consider lynching a lurker when there are suspicious players? It's not always what they say that makes them scum but the intent behind it. And to be honest your post only deflects from the cases already made. Exactly. So why are you talking about lynching a lurker and totally ignoring existing cases? Scum? So you are saying that there is no way to have an accurate read on players before any flip. I would say it is hard but not impossible. Pressuring people for the content of their posts and not the quality of their posts allows for a good read. If instead we just ask people to be more active and talk about safe topics such as policy lynches than nothing is accomplished through this! Which by the way is exactly what you achieved with your post ... We have ~7 hours till deadline and yet the only thing you have talked about over and over again is your policy lynch. You may vote for whomever's death is most beneficial for town in your opinion but before that I want to hear you comment on the existent cases. And just to remind everyone making strong and logical cases is one of the more difficult things for scum. Therefore the easiest thing for scum is to just start a case on a lurker because let's admit it, everyone has to hate lurkers! ##FoS goodkarma And don't get me wrong. I am hundred percent behind getting rid of lurkers. So if we have vigs, please do your job! My verdict after this analysis: Pretty suspicious. It isn't enough yet to vote for her, but it certainly warrants more investigation. I need to analyze her posts themselves before I do much more, but right now I just got back from work and I have to go back in 9 hours, so I need to grab some shut-eye while I can. Hopefully someone else can use this information while I sleep though. Holy cow. Nice case. This is the the kind of analysis that takes really careful combing through filters and picking up on extremely subtle patterns. I'm eagerly awaiting a response from Ange now. | ||
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I just want to add before I sleep though that I feel like the discussion so far today has been extremely good. I'm feeling more confident in our ability to lynch scum now. | ||
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You are acting so close to the way you acted in XIX :o Changing your posting patterns/habits after day 1 - check Buddying up with people - check Repeating town/pro-town/etc a lot - check Trying to help lead discussion - check Like I said, if you are town, I really don't want to mislynch you. But I'm certainly not convinced that you are town yet. | ||
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On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote: @Keir Seems like Keir has not replied, I noticed he is sleeping, so while I eagerly wait for his response: I'm not exactly sure what you want me to reply to. I assume you are talking about this: + Show Spoiler + On July 30 2012 19:23 alan133 wrote: @Kei + Show Spoiler + On July 30 2012 04:13 Keirathi wrote: You are right, scum can push agendas from "bad" discussion. That's exactly what I said. My point was that pointing out every little thing that you find scummy isn't helping the thread find scum, because one or two little scummy blips does not a scum make. THAT'S the reason I put my scum reads all into one big post. Its much harder for scum to refute a lot of points at one time than one or two points on multiple occasions. Also, things like my reply to goodkarma ARE scum hunting in a sense. By saying that I find people townie, I am narrowing down my suspect list. The problem I have against you is that you were not standing out nor wanting to commit to a case. You argued that you don't want to make "bad cases" in case scums make use of it. While I don't totally agree: How are we supposed to scum hunt during the day without putting the pressure on based on any little evidence we found, in the night post you changed your position and suddenly encourages us people, who made cases based on one or two scumslip, to keep up with building more cases. It seems like when you talk about not wanting to build "bad cases", you are putting yourself in a position to sit back, while encourage other players to go at against each other, and then finally build your own case based on how the discussion is going. The "refrain from building bad case" was meant to excuse yourself when people accuse you of lacking scum hunting commitment. I don't buy the "narrowing down" suspects as a form of scum hunting. Not really much to comment on though. I don't believe that one or two little scummy things necessarily makes someone scum, but PATTERNS of scummy things do. All the cases that I've posted have been based on patterns of doing things that I find scummy. I understand that without a little pressure, people aren't going to voluntarily make those scummy mistakes though. It's just my way of playing, and it might be wrong, or bad, or whatever you want to call it, but it has worked for me in my past games. I got called out in I Can't Believe Its Not Themed game for not making solid day 1 reads and insisting that I preferred making reads based on patterns/connections as well. I just hate being wrong, and its much easier to be right when I have more to go on. As far as changing my position and suddenly encouraging people to make cases based on one or two scumslips after the night post, can you point out exactly where I did that. I looked back through my filter and I don't see me saying that at all, so I'd specifically like to know what post you misunderstood. On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote: When I read about your night post urging other people to make cases, my impression on you is that you were scummy to try to wait for other players to chip in their cases, which allow you to judge who to go after that could have benefit scum. I went through the day 1 post up to Golbat's lynch focusing on your posts and found you it matches what I thought: your filter reveals while you were posting a lot, you did not make any hard stance against any players. You made one case which leads to your vote on Golbat, and spent most other time deflecting cases against you, and other times defending players, or trying to befriend new players. I made 3 cases, not one. I just felt stronger about Golbat at the time than Mordanis or GK. Again, you'll notice that all 3 cases were about patterns of things I found scummy. Golbat with repeatedly changing his mind, GK for repeatedly interrupting discussion to start talking about lurkers again, and Mordanis for repeatedly trying to assert that I wasn't a blue role. On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote: I moved over looking at your day 2 posts and found out you actually did some scum hunting on your own, which partially negate my claim that you were "not aligning early towards any scum reads". However, I am not a big fan of your "small talk" with Promethelax about a past game you guys were in. Please focus on this game only, unless you meant to mention how Promethelax plays in the past to build a case. I wasn't kidding when I said I wanted everyone to completely read back through day 1 while knowing that Golbat was town. I did it myself, and pushed my new cases. I posted out 3 completely new cases, and new facts for my 2 previous cases. As far as the small talk with Prom, I agree, it was pointless spam. It DID start out as me using his meta from our previous game to put pressure on him, though. On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote: Also, I found this: + Show Spoiler + On July 30 2012 16:32 Keirathi wrote: Holy cow. Nice case. This is the the kind of analysis that takes really careful combing through filters and picking up on extremely subtle patterns. I'm eagerly awaiting a response from Ange now. While some may not find this post scummy at all, it fits into my reads on you, that you "did not make a stance", "Wait for other players to talk", and then "push accordingly". I guess you did indeed imply that you agree with Mordanis' case when you say it is a nice case, but these were not very committing stance that can always be dismissed when needed. Maybe I wasn't clear enough. When I read that case, it was extremely well reasoned and put Ange into a new light that I hadn't noticed, and her (him? i assume her because she didn't correct Mordanis for his constant use of her) response to it was very important to how I would ultimately feel towards her after it. Her response was satisfactory, but not particularly convincing. I haven't had a chance to go back through her filter yet myself and make a final decision, but I'm more wary of her now after Mordanis' case. That's all I meant. On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote: TL:DR I am not a big fan of Kei's "passive" scum hunt play that allows him to sit back and judge the direction townies headed, while possibly moulding his own stance to get the best out of scum. I would like to see Kei's response. I apologize if it feels like I'm being passive. I just don't agree with committing early. All the cases I've pushed have followed my meta of picking up patterns, but that's because I generally believe I'm much better at that than pressuring people for one silly little thing at a time. | ||
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Keirathi wrote: He said he didn't want to post his reads at night, and would wait until today. How could you be so sure you weren't going to die and never get those reads out for people to see? Posting them at the end of the night would have been ideal if you actually are townie. For reference, heres the post I got that from: + Show Spoiler + On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote: Just a small update: I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same... I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him. Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too... Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...). Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town. I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made. Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. It doesn't make any sense for a townie to claim that he has reads and not share them before the night ends. If you had died, you never would have gotten to post them, and you would have completely wasted your time and hurt the thread overall. Were you completely unafraid of dying? Also, you said you would post them before the night ended in your previous post + Show Spoiler + On July 29 2012 07:57 goodkarma wrote: With the day passed, and our first flip, I plan on making a rather lengthy analysis thread on top suspects. I promise to have it before night ends, but don't expect to see it for several hours. | ||
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On July 31 2012 14:23 alan133 wrote: When you call for other people to make case, it occurs to me; didn't you disagree with that method of scum hunting that you're avoiding from? Why are you asking for them to post now? I think this is the key thing: I realize the necessity of all those other small points, I just don't like to play like that. What I mean is that while I would love everyone to just post big, solid, well-reasoned cases, I realize that without the small cases and pressure that those big cases would be harder to make. Maybe I need to change my playstyle, but like I"ve said, this is what has worked for me in the past and changing habits is hard. | ||
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I will say that his cases in this game, compared to his cases in XIX where he was scum, are 100% better. To use his own terms from the end of XIX: "I liked my pants-on-head retarded connection theories." There is one similarity from XIX and this game that I will mention that I haven't before. In day 1 on XIX, he pushed a case on another townie really hard, and then after day 1 he virtually quit mentioning it for no reason. Or rather, mentioned it a few times but without any real conviction or pressure. It kind of feels like the same thing he's done to Shady in this game. | ||
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I may consolidate just to avoid a no-lynch if I have to, but for now: ##Vote goodkarma | ||
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On August 01 2012 04:09 Ange777 wrote: Could you give me your reasoning for this vote? I quickly skimmed through your filter to look for your suspicions against goodkarma and only found the following: - pushing for lurker lynches - not immediately telling us his second scum read - the "in retrospect" thing I feel his posting has improved a lot in comparison to earlier, he did reveal his second scum read later on and well about the "in restrospect" thing, I guess this is just whether you are willing to give him the benefit of doubt. Compared to this I think the case on Promethelax is much more stronger. Is the meta read the only thing that is keeping you from voting him? That's basically it. I still don't think there's a justifiable reason for him interrupting conversations in day 1 to push that we should lynch lurkers. Not posting his scum reads at night is a big red-flag as well. He waited until other people had already made their day2 cases before he posted his. I still think if he had reads before night ended, then the only reason not to post them is if you are unafraid of being NK'd. As far as Promethelax, yea its mostly meta. And honestly its not a strong conviction. I feel like a lot of his play this game has been similar to his play as scum in XIX. But his scum play in XIX was so pro-town, that I'm not sure how a real town Promethelax would actually play. I would assume it couldn't actually be that much different, just in the quality of his cases, and I do think they have improved. | ||
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Is it even possible for a RB to block mafia KP? How is mafia KP handled in this game? | ||
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On August 01 2012 04:33 Ange777 wrote: In my first game ever I rolled scum and I would have never thought of that possibility. What would they gain by faking a medic? If they aren't forced into claiming early, then as long as they make it to LYLO/MYLO, one of them can claim medic and that he has a "confirmed townie". They only need to get one mislynch at that point, and how many times are you going to lynch a claimed medic when there was a night without a kill? | ||
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On August 01 2012 04:44 Ange777 wrote: Ok, good point. Didn't occur to me. However they would have to get to LYLO/MYLO first and how do you do that? By getting rid of as many townies as you can before they get suspicious of you. So risky ... Btw ... Shady, where are you? You popped back to the thread 2,5 hours ago with your promise to post. You're right. It is extremely risky. But you if you get away with it and make it to LYLO/MYLO, you've basically won the game. | ||
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On August 01 2012 05:18 Ange777 wrote: Well I would say that disrupting the scum hunt, getting town cred and buddy up with other players is quite a lot of scum motivation. But ok, I see your point. I was too hasty. I can see townie motivation for the second and third point too, though. Not disrupting the scumhunt, but I haven't really seen much of him doing that. The only example that comes to mind immediately is when he and I were discussing XIX, but despite the spam, we kept talking about our reads and opinions as well. Just threw the XIX stuff in at the end. I do apologize again for that, though. We should have waited until after the game. | ||
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On August 01 2012 05:22 marvellosity wrote: I am assuming MrMedic is gone for the world, gonna make the call atm that 6 is the number for the lynch (majority from 11) Mehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. | ||
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On August 01 2012 05:26 Ange777 wrote: But why would buddying up with players be town motivation? There is no way you can know one's alignment for sure until they flip. So by buddying up with someone you are just tying yourself closer to someone whom you don't know if he is town or scum. It really depends on his flip. If he flips medic and he's the one that made the save last night, I can see him trying to buddy up with who he now knows is a townie without having to specifically claim. | ||
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On August 01 2012 05:54 Ange777 wrote: But we still don't know whether it was a successful roleblock or medic save therefore I'd say even if he was the medic there could not be 100% assurance that the one he had targeted was townie. That's true. But I think if I was medic and I saw one power role flip on d1, I would be fairly confident that I was the only one left. Especially since most newbie games that I've seen have only had 2 active roles (although I think one recently, maybe XXI? had 2 active roles and a vet). But you're right, that is purely speculation. | ||
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On August 01 2012 06:13 DarthPunk wrote: I really don't understand that claim hint in regards to keirathi now. Me either :o | ||
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On August 01 2012 08:49 marvellosity wrote: JingleHell replaces MrMedic Oh god, /terror. | ||
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On August 01 2012 09:56 goodkarma wrote: Wow... I really can't understand how Prox felt that playing like he played scum in the past, combined with his lack of transparency, would strengthen his town claim. I look forward to hearing his thoughts in the post-game. @JingleHell: One analysis post and you will have already contributed more than MrMedic has the entire game. I look forward to hearing more from you. Ange is right that inactivity is killing us. One thing that I will immediately note as suspicious is that many lynch votes this second round were very last-minute. I encourage everyone to look through voting patterns, as I suspect that at least one mafia bandwaggoned for the Prox lynching near the end when it became apparent it might be necessary to secure the lynch. I will be assessing the strength of everyone's Prox lynch arguements, especially for those who stalled their votes until the last minute. My thoughts on last-minute voting: If some truely compelling evidence presents itself, a vote can be changed. Lingering around until like one hour before the voting deadline does nothing to demonstrate you believe in your arguements, and denies town access to your position until it can't realistically be considered... Stalling like that definitely isn't in town's best interest. Like I said near the end of the day, if Prom's scum play was so townie-like, then how would his actual townie play differ? The only thing I could really think of would be the quality of his cases, which did improve compared to scum. I kind of feel bad that he was lynched based on meta arguments that I started. He is legitimately a solid player, and I was overly scared of his prior scum play without a real townie-play (he was townie in MTG, but he wasn't "in his element" so to say) to compare it to. As far as voting near the end of the day: I know I did that as well, even though my vote was for you, rather than Prom. And that's just because no one was a clear choice. I had enough things to make me suspect multiple people, but nothing "concrete" to make me vote one over the others. Purely indecision. I will say, though, that had marv not changed the required amount of votes to get a lynch, that I was considering changing my vote to Prom solely to avoid a no-lynch. A no-lynch on day2 would have been pretty terrible, IMO. That's why I said "Mehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh" after marv posted the rules change: I felt like changing the rules 1 hour before the end of the day took the power out of our (well, specifically MY) hands, and made my decision meaningless. Granted, it wouldn't have mattered anyways with Shady posting his vote just before the deadline, but I didn't like the rule change. I understand why he did it, but I still wish that he wouldn't have. | ||
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On August 01 2012 11:59 Obvious.660 wrote: If my understanding is correct, a majority of the suspicion about me stems from posting "What the fuck?" not long after the Golbat flip? LOL. Seriously? Thats the most massive over-generalization I've ever seen. The "What the fuck" point was just icing on the cake. And it wasn't even about what you said, it was when you said it. After saying you didn't think you would be around for the end of the day (but that if you were, you would give some insight), you show up exactly 3 minutes after the flip to admonish the Vig lynch. For reference as to things about you I find scummy outside of the post-flip timing: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15660499 Since then, you haven't changed my perspective towards you one bit. You have done nothing but tunnel Shady the entire game. The only other "case" you have made at all was the post about alan and Darth here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15662306 . That post says ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. You didn't call out anything they did as scummy, nor did you actually commit to a read of them being connected. You just beat around the bush about nothing whatsoever. | ||
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What I said was that there were things about you and GK and Prom that I found scummy and I didn't know which one to vote for. I decided GK because I feel really strongly about his day 1 play. | ||
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On August 01 2012 13:37 Obvious.660 wrote: If you think I'm scum, then I'm the worst scum in this game. That's the bottom line, because it's obvious. Well you aren't doing a good job of proving your worth to the town either. You deflect and dismiss any arguments against you, while simultaneously casting suspicion on whoever makes the accusations. That's not pro-town at all. | ||
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On August 02 2012 03:36 Ange777 wrote: I get the not having finished reading all of the thread part. And while I understand that it takes a while to get into a game at the start of night 2, I still believe that you can make good reads on the other players because you haven't been here for the discussion. It makes you unbiased. And looking back at the conversation after a mislynch only considering the flip and not your own judgement may be a plus point for you. I agree with Ange. You were in Newbie XIX and died before I replaced in, and look at the discussion that my "notes" sparked. I was completely unbiased with them other than knowing who had already died, and it gave me a better insight into each persons actions because I wasn't emotionally invested into the conversations surrounding them. | ||
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My top suspects right now are Obvious and GK. I've laid out my cases against them already, and they haven't changed much. I'm just letting it be known who I will pursue during the daytime so you can't say I'm being non-committal. I'll have my full cases laid out again sometime tonight. | ||
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Combo! | ||
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GG town. Absolutely amazing play from Ange. GJ Shady for stepping up to be a town leader once I died and confirmed you. | ||
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My main motivation for writing that Will was because I knew Shady was going to be taking a lot of pressure if I died, and I *FULLY* expected to be shot night1 if Promethelax was scum.So my bias ended up working out in the end since I did give Shady a clear claim, but for the wrong reasons. @Golbat: Not really much to say here. I think you leaned a lot from this game that you can carry over into your subsequent games. Sorry we lynched you so early! @Mordanis: I still don't get the point of you pushing that I wasn't blue, although maybe that is the reason that the Medic and Scum both targetted me. Your post-day1 reads were solid overall though. It's too bad you couldn't overcome the suspicions on you from day1 and had to play with your back against the wall for the rest of the game. @Shady: Stepped up when it counted. It was interesting to see your progression in mentality from day2, up until the end. Blazing really did a good job of coaching you, and I'm glad you listened and took his advice to heart. Your play dramatically improved once you did. @Ange777: Good fucking game. There's really not much more to say. The crumbs were excellent, you made a clutch save, you caught the Zork slip, and were a big proponent in all 3 scum lynches. I feel sorry for any scum team that has to play against you if they let you live. @GoodKarma: I kind of tunneled you a bit because of your day 1 play, and I apologize. I just want to note that it IS possible to get solid reads on day 1. I think that was the big thing I took offense with. Solid play for the rest of the game, though. My only real suggestion would be to be more active. @Obvious.660: Not really a whole lot to comment here either. I thought you were scum early on. Being more active could have helped you feel more townie, but I understand you were going though RL things. @JingleHell: Meh. Good cases, bad execution. You played like you were a confirmed townie and that your cases should be 100% taken at face value and got angry when they were turned back towards you. I think everyone in the Obs QT thought you were scum at one point or another, so it wasn't just the people in the thread questioning your motives. @aRyuujin: I honestly liked the haikus at first, but eventually they started to obfuscate your thoughts because of the forced sentence structure. Your willingness to stop once I asked was a plus, though. You kind of came out of nowhere to push the DP case, which was good timing, but it definitely could have backfired on you just because you weren't more active for the rest of the game. @Promethelax: Sorry you couldn't be more active. Please FOR THE LOVE OF GOD quit saying town multiple times per post. Other than that, I think you played similarly enough to your scum meta to make you suspicious, but your cases were different enough (read: actually good, not pants-on-head retarded) that I was leaning town on you by the time of your lynch and I couldn't do anything to stop it @Zorkmid: Gotta be wiling to get bussed. DP said in Obs QT that your goal with the medic claim was to draw the real medic out: if you wanted to do that, you really needed to try harder. Your claim lacked enough evidence or passion for anyone to take it at face value, I think. @DarthPunk: Man you had me 100% fooled, at least until the Zork wagon got rolling. Literally my last words to Shady before I died were "Strong town read on Darth". Good job overall, just a series of unfortunate events led to your lynch and eventual loss. Good game, though. @alan133: People have said it already, but reading through the scum QT was enlightening. You really have a good mind for how to fluently manipulate the situation to your advantage. One or two small things happening another way and you would have easily carried this game to a scum win. Good job, and I sincerely hope that this isn't your last game. | ||
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On August 11 2012 01:29 alan133 wrote: Would like to see the reason for buddying up Kei: Could be strong townie reads, interested to see why. It was actually the opposite. He thought I was scum, and was trying to buy his way out of the lynch so that he could make a case against me during the night. | ||
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