I'll jump in if my Newbie Mini Mafia XX wraps up in the next few days.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXI
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I'll jump in if my Newbie Mini Mafia XX wraps up in the next few days. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 16 2012 09:06 calgar wrote: I have to disagree with you here. We saw firsthand how hapa crushed hopeless last game with a thorough meta-analysis. This means it is at least worth something. Having said that, I think it will be less useful this game since those who saw what happened will be more careful to avoid similar mistakes. And some players (like me) have no history to analyze. One of the lessons I learned from the last game (Newbie Mini Mafia XX) was how fickle meta-analysis can be. My case against Hopeless was mostly based around him mis-representing evidence and fingerpointing. The Meta was the icing on the cake. Also note that my cases/meta arguments against two players (Release and JingleHell) were ulitmately wrong. While meta has a place as supplemental evidence against players who are not self-aware of their own history, Otherwise, it lead you on a goose chase after a player who's in a bad mood in a particular game. To re-iterate, meta is icing on the cake. We should always look for suspicious behavior and mafia-motive before even considering something like meta. Suspicious behavior like the bolded part below: On July 16 2012 09:06 calgar wrote: ---SNIP--- And some players (like me) have no history to analyze. That's a really subtle way to point out your newbieness. That's some mafia behavior right there. FOS calgar | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 16 2012 09:40 tube wrote: whats the point of fos btw doesnt that just make the fos'ed person more careful in their posts if they actually are mafia i mean i would rather just gather more evidence then outright accuse them It's a way to pressure people and get them to talk - I found it very effective in my last game, and I'll continue to do it this game. Someone mentioned in our last game that people on other mafia sites like throwing around votes early in the game to pressure. The FOS thing is similar. At this point, almost any action can be justified if it gets people to talk. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
FOS tube While he has five posts in this game, all of them are substance-less and short. Beyond an initial burst of one-liners early in the game, he hasn’t done anything of value so far. I find his last two posts especially suspicious: On July 16 2012 10:26 tube wrote: in a game this small where everyone said "i will be active" i dont think lurking is a good idea for anyone, esp mafia Incredibly obvious one-liner. Note the wishy-washy wording, “I don’t think lurking is a good idea” – OF COURSE lurking isn’t a good idea! He’s being timid and posting obvious statements. On July 16 2012 23:25 tube wrote: idk what igmeoy means but i just didnt do any analysis He plays off his lack of substance and analysis as no big deal. This is incredibly suspicious and is anti-town mentality – townies JUMP at the opportunity to provide analysis instead of playing it off as no big deal. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 04:30 tube wrote: what lol maybe i just dont see anything to analyze in day 1 with no information The issue I have is how flippant your attitude is toward analysis so far. You're not making an effort to converse - you've just asked some neutral questions, posted neutral statements, made some fluff one-liners, and responded "what lol" to the first accusation against you. Zero substance, and highly suspicious. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 05:04 tube wrote: half of the people in the game have already been accused and i literally dont agree with any of the arguments that were made yet because they're all too speculative yeah those are my thoughts i guess im mafia Again - why are you dismissing all forms of analysis so easily? You also refuse to take a stand against anyone so far despite posting many one-liners and substanceless posts to make you seem active. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 05:22 tube wrote: i didnt martyr myself i thought making a sarcastic statement like that would make people realize how pointless it is to lynch me Sooo... you thought making sarcastic one-liners would shift suspicion off you? If you want to avoid suspicion, take the points against you seriously and start posting with substance. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 05:39 tube wrote: the points against me are that im being an active lurker and thats supposedly our best lynch how am i supposed to respond to that other than "i just felt like posting" because i didnt want to be inactive from my point of view im not attracting suspicion to begin with WAT. Holy scumslip. Posting for no reason other than to appear active? That smells like a mafia trying to put up a facade of townieness without providing any info. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 05:45 JingleHell wrote: And if you flip town, I'll consider them as plausible targets. If you flip scum, I'll consider them confirmed townie. Deal? Let's not pre-determine our lynches less than 24 hours into day 1 Jingle. While tube is at the top of my list right now (even moreso after chainsaw defending himself with a list of lurkers), we don't know if he'll be the scummiest player by the D1 lynch deadline. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 05:51 JingleHell wrote: I was actually fishing for a reaction more substantial than his current posting, thanks for interfering. And you're one to talk, remember XX N1 where you were like 72 hours away from deadline planning to lynch me until DT confirmed me on D2? Of course I remember - it was a huge mistake, and I don't want to see it repeated. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 06:09 JingleHell wrote: No, it's not a scum slip. It's what I said earlier, if we don't have anybody who really screams "scum" at us, we can just lynch the person who might just be actively bad town. The "noob game" excuse doesn't fly with me, we're all newbs, thus being in the game. This game is plurality lynch. Most votes at the end of the day dies. So yes, someone who's actively not contributing can be a severe detriment. Ask Hapa about the town win in XX. Where the guy I would have lynched for being such a PITA was trying to coerce people into not voting for the guy we ended up lynching. Who flipped red and won us the game. Actively bad town are scum's best friend. And if they make it to MYLO or LYLO, they can cause a town loss, because they look scummy. In XVIII I won as scum because of an actively bad town player who I was able to lead a mislynch on and walk away from it because he was so scummy sounding. Scum had all 3 alive at endgame. There's never an exuse to lynch someone because you think they're "bad town" - they can always be ignored by the other folks. In regards to the XX game, you mean Lazer defending Bass from being lynched on D3? That certainly doesn't justify lynching Lazer D1 instead of the more suspicious player (who ended up flipping red). In regards to the XVIII game, I haven't read it over so I can't comment. All that being said, I've FOS'd tube not because I think he's a bad townie, but because he's the most suspicious player in the game so far. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=11#220 | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Regarding you being "non-commital" - people define committment as the willingness to take a strong stance against a player or take a controversial opinion. Generally (according to the guides), mafia are often timid and non-controversial, because they don't want to attract attention. As it stands, your posts so far sound a lot like that - harmless one-liners that try to deflect attention from yourself. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
As far as I'm concerned, tube's one-liners seem much more suspicious. Furthermore, we have a handful of lurkers that need to be pressured by town to increase their post counts. It's not good if town ends Day 1 with a couple of players who have posted nothing of substance. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 17 2012 06:21 Hopeless1der wrote: Lynching a bad townie in absence of scum to choose from is the best play town can make (unless its MYLO) imo. Are we allowed to Vote: No Lynch? There's some theoretical crap about even numbers of town-vs-scum being better for a potential mislynch or something to that effect. I might have it backwards in some way, but anyways, mislynching still gives information and the entire process leading up to getting tube (mis)lynched will give us information as well. If along the way someone makes a scumslip well guess what, I'll probably be voting for the scummy player. We need to do something to force reads from people who refuse to contribute. Almost getting them lynched should work as reasonable motivation I'd hope. Woah, can't believe I missed this - this is pretty interesting, and you wouldn't happen to have a reference for this? I can't ever see rationale for a nolynch, especially since lynch votes and actions are a great source of information when investigating mafia motive. As far as I'm concerned, a nolynch just gives the mafia a free kill, while the town is stuck on day 1 with no reads and less information. Since this post, there has fortunately been a burst of activity, and hopefully someone can build a case. I'm planning to dig through it all tomorrow to build something more definite. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
So far, YourHarry’s play is ringing a lot of alarm-bells for me. He’s posted very little content, he’s never explained his opinions, and he’s displayed a very different mentality from his town play in his last game (Newbie Mini Mafia XX). A Quick Meta Summary NOTE: “Meta” is strictly supplemental evidence. Consider my entire case before dismissing it a as a simple meta argument. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066&user=106290 A quick look at YourHarry’s first two pages of filters reveals an active and genuine player. He makes genuine cases, real analysis, and longer posts. He’s willing to throw his votes around, but does so decisively and explains his reasoning. Take a look at some of the below posts to get a feel for YourHarry’s town play in Newbie Mini Mafia XX: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=5#94 - Defends LazerMonkey early in the game. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=7#129 - Votes JingleHell for pressure, explains reasoning http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=8#152 - Clearly explains reasoning for Unvoting JingleHell In summary, he clearly gives reasoning for all his actions, displays urgency to catch scum, and is willing to defend people he believes are coming under unjust attacks. Very townie behavior. YourHarry in this game is a very different person in a Mafia-Oriented Way YourHarry’s Scummy Play YourHarry’s actions have no reasoning. His vote against Obvious.660 consists of the following justifications: On July 16 2012 14:07 YourHarry wrote: ##Vote Obvious.660 Obvious scum BTW, "wait and see" does not mean that we should actively stop what we are discussing to see what happens. It could mean, carry on with discussions and finger pointing and see where our scum hunting leads us. On July 17 2012 11:31 YourHarry wrote: Obvious.660 is obviously mafia. Kill with fire. On July 17 2012 11:36 YourHarry wrote: KILL OBVIOUS.660!!! He still has not provided justification for this, and despite his early provocations, withdrew his vote without any justification, AGAIN. Note his wishy-washy tone and emphasis on stalling. Despite what I said about needing to start voting, I don't know who to vote. I will reconsider tomorrow morning ##Unvote Furthermore, this contradicts directly with a post he made earlier: On July 17 2012 14:59 YourHarry wrote: With 17 hours left, we should start making votes - just to allow us to see the direction of the lynch. More than just the contradiction, this is anti-town mentality. He basically suggests us to throw votes for no reason, which will serve no purpose other than to create chaos and panic. 17 hours from the deadline is no time to be panicking over a lynch, especially with the burst of posting over the last few hours. Finally, I find his “suspicion” against me the polar opposite of his townie play. On July 17 2012 14:56 YourHarry wrote: Based on meta alone, I find Hapha suspicious. He hasn't yet to post his signature lengthy analysis on players he find suspicious. Of course, the easy answer is that he hasn't found anyone suspicious. Look how indecisive this post is. He gives unclear reasoning, then quickly backtracks on it with an explanation. The ENTIRE goal of the post is to spread suspicion instead of making a read. Overall, I think YourHarry is the most suspicious player so far. His thought process and character has been very different than that of his townie persona. Furthermore, he’s produced no content, posted many one-liners, and his posts incite panic and suspicion without providing reasoning. ##Vote YourHarry | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
While Tube has made some suspicious posts, he's waaaaay too upfront/naieve about his suspicious behavior, and comes across as a really really bad townie player. Suspicion alone is not enough to lynch someone - its more important to look for Mafia Motive. Obvious.660 reads as pretty townie to me. He has many lengthy posts, provides clear reasoning for his actions, is playing recklessly. I don't understand the bandwagon at all, and this looks all too similar to the "LYNCH LAZERMONKEY" bandwagon on Day 1 in Newbie Mini Mafia XX. I don't want to spend pages and pages screaming in his defense this game, but I will do if we do this bandwagon shit again. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
There was a similar player in the last game I played (Mackin). He was a townie, but often provided his information/reads in "list" posts like these. In short, while it can be interpreted as suspicious, it doesn't read as such. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 00:02 JingleHell wrote: And Hapahauli kicks off his usual behavior of trying to railroad the town, based on his oh so exemplary record of finding one whole scum in Newbie XX, and conveniently ignoring all the bad cases he personally had going there while knocking any cases he disliked from it. /yawn I'll just stick with ignoring you, thanks. Jingle. I don't want us getting into a dickfight again in this game. It'll only create chaos in the town. I will make every effort to remain civil with you, and all I ask you provide reasoning for your opinions as opposed to dismissing my case based on my "ego" or whatever. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 00:18 JingleHell wrote: Are you blind, or just ignoring everything you disagree with again? I already provided my reasoning for voting on Obvious, and you dismissed it completely, based purely on WIFOM and assumptions. You're a brick wall in an argument, so I'm not going to bother. Would you like me to link some posts (which you ignored completely) explaining why you're at the very least not worth the bother of arguing against, and in some ways, have the potential to be bad for town? Would you like me remind you of the BassInSpace case you were busily trying to tear to shreds? You know, the guy we lynched in part because of my ego, who was the LAST SCUM? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=51#1001 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=51#1007 So what? I made a mistake about Bass. Most of my case was based off his voting pattern rather than the content of his posts, which were suspicious in hindsight (took wishy-washy stances on Mackin/YourHarry). However, may I remind you about LazerMonkey, who you relentlessly tried to lynch D1 despite him flipping townie at the end? Obvious.660 reminds me more of LazerMonkey - I'm defending him based on his posting style and tone. How on earth is he more suspicious than YourHarry? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 00:44 YourHarry wrote: Haph. Regards to meta. While I believe that meta is very useful in determining town/scum alignments, I do not think it's useful to simply compare the length of the posts. Scum Harry does know that people like you, jingle, and hopeless would keep his eyes on my posts to compare meta from our previous game. I would be motivated to emulate the types of posts I made in Newbie XX, to mislead you guys that I am, yet again, town. And it would be easy to do - especially, if the length of the posts is the one thing I need to emulate. Look for my motivation of the posts - which I admit is lacking - because I am not sure who is suspicious. But in my defense, I did read every post in this thread. As for your accusation for wishy-washy comments and voting Obvious.660 without reason... do you really think this goes against my meta? I think I have also done quick voting in XX without much reason. It is true that in this game I practically provided 0 reason, LOL, but hopefully that should not make me more scummy. Also, sometimes I would like the person I am accusing to make a guess at why I am accusing him. You also accused me of trying to "spread suspicion" rather the give reads. I haven't given much read, except to point out that you Hapha were suspicious for not making one of your signature analysis. In my original post, I too cited the length of the posts in analyzing your meta, so yes that would be a contradiction to what I am writing in this post. In regards to Obvious.660, I don't know why people find that suspicious. He was simply giving out his reads on all of the players. Non-noncommittal, you say? Just because he didn't vote? As a town, you often do feel unsure about town/scum alignments of players. Just because I express that I am not sure player X is town or scum, should not make me scummy. It's true. In regards to your Obvious.660 voting, it's extremely different from your previous game. Quick voting is one thing. Quick voting without reasoning is entirely another. In the previous game, you were very upfront about using Quickvoting for pressure. In this game, it looks like you're doing it for shits and giggles. Its also worth saying that my meta argument is entirely supplementary, and is used to reinforce the other points: your one-liners, lack of reasoning, and lack of content are all extremely suspicious. I also highly doubt you all of a sudden switched your townie posting style to this in order to prove your innocence via. some crazy WIFOM meta thing. In regard to "spreading suspicion" - the tone and manner is highly scummy. I would have no objections if you immediately FOS'd me, saying that me not having posted a long case was a scumtell. However, you backtracked on it immediately after you said it. What purpose could that post have other than creating suspicion? I KNOW you're capapble of being decisive, yet you didn't do it. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
You voted for Obvious based on his "suspicious" vote for tube. While it was a bad read and a stupid play, I don't find it suspicious. His tone is genuine, and he acknowledges the reasons for his mistake - in no way does it "deflect" or "mislead." Bad votes =/= suspicious votes, there has to be an identifiable mafia-motive/manner, and there isn't one. You're suspicious of the "sacrificial lamb thing" - this again comes across as reckless/stupid, not suspicious. Do you honestly think mafia would post something like that? Its reckless, and even if its "stupid", its a townie trait. Your'e suspicious of his "give you a chance before I throw you under the bus" quote. You just take him out of context and misinterpret his definition of "bus". You're supsicious of his "list" post. I explained why I don't think its suspicious. Remember Mackin? ...and that's it. Now why are you not suspicious of YourHarry? I think he's a far better D1 lynch. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 00:50 JingleHell wrote: Considering he's accusing me of tunneling too much, and you of spreading too much suspicion, I'd just assume it's yet another case of Hapa being Hapa. For christ sake Jingle - the backhanded comments are getting rediculous. Exactly how do you think this helps the town? Cut it out. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Anywho, we can agree to disagree on the Obvious.660 posts. I still believe I'm right, and I'll be pushing for the lynch of YourHarry as previously stated. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 01:37 JingleHell wrote: I'll cut it out the second you stop thinking that cardboard crown you got from Burger King proves you're king shit. Did you actually read the posts I referred you to, and try being open minded about them, or were you too busy trying to decide how best to subjugate others to your ego? Since when does pushing for my case constitute "ego?" Its a scumhunt, and I'm going to try to argue to get the scummiest player lynch. You're doing the exact same thing with Obvious.660. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Jingle is playing exactly like he was last game as a townie. Look at my case from last game; he's perfectly capable of blatantly bad advice, lack of reasoning, and anti-town mentality. Yet he flipped town. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=21#404 So far, he's as reckless as he was in his town game, and I see no reason to suspect him. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
YourHarry's been far more suspicious so far: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=20#384 | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 03:51 JingleHell wrote: And if the two of us are agreeing on it, you'd think it would be obvious as all hell to anyone else, right? I'm shocked we're on the same side of this issue tbh o_O | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 04:36 Evulrabbitz wrote: I will throw my vote on Obvious.660 based on his eagerness to vote for Tube for something that didn't even occur. ##Vote Obvious.660 That vote isn't even suspicious! Bad vote =/= scummy behavior, and he's been pretty townie otherwise. Hell if you're not going to listen to me, atleast read Calgar's opinion on Obvious.660 | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 05:25 calgar wrote: @hapa Will you consider swinging your vote to iamperfection? We can potentially bag him over obvious.660 if we can convince people. I think the argument against iamperfection is stronger than YourHarry now. He made some points and if his posting shapes up and continues like it has then we'll know more. At least we've 'aired the dirty laundry' on him, so to speak. I haven't gone through iamperfection's filter all too thorougly yet. Let me take a look, and I'll get back to you in a few minutes. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 05:25 calgar wrote: @hapa Will you consider swinging your vote to iamperfection? We can potentially bag him over obvious.660 if we can convince people. I think the argument against iamperfection is stronger than YourHarry now. He made some points and if his posting shapes up and continues like it has then we'll know more. At least we've 'aired the dirty laundry' on him, so to speak. Welp. YourHarry is still my #1 Mafia read. Regardless, I feel pretty strongly about my obvious.660 townie read, and if we can save him from getting lynched by voting for a semi-suspicious player, I'll do so. [/b]##Unvote YourHarry ##Vote iamperfection[/b] NOTE: I have to catch a train and I'll be gone until close to the lynch deadline. Can I rely on you to lobby for the iamperfection lynch Calgar? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
##Unvote YourHarry ##Vote iamperfection | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
@ Jingle - well if he claimed vet, he would've survived, no? It also confirms a townie and doesn't waste a lynch. @ Town - Balls. Fortunately we should be able to get some information from the bandwagon. I'll be looking through vote patterns and rereading filters tonight. In the mean time, make sure you post your reads before the end of the night!! I'll try to post mine in a couple of hours - we don't want anyone dying from the mafia night kill without providing any information. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 08:37 JingleHell wrote: I wouldn't count someone claiming vet as confirmed townie unless they actually survived an attack. That's like claiming VT, with the exception that if they're telling the truth, it means scum won't waste an NK on them, and the only ways to confirm it are to have a Vigi shoot them or have a DT investigate them. I can't say GG, myself, when, even if we assume that 100% of the scum voted for him, which we have no way of knowing for sure, he still seemed scummy to enough townies to be in serious danger without scum voting on him. I'm by no means suggesting that all the scum voted for Obvious.660. However, I'd be pretty damn surprised if no scum voted for him, given the extremely strong bandwagon in the second half of D1. A bandwagon like that doesn't get started without some mafia cooperation. As for the vet stuff, I'm no expert on role-claiming logic, so meh. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 08:45 YourHarry wrote: Of course he should have claimed. Though claiming may or may not have saved him, since this is semi-open set up. I am probably going to guess that he would have lived. On the positive side. I AM POSITIVE THAT FULLA IS TOWN. Explain? Him showing up near the deadline to pile on Obvious.660 didn't look good to me. Hell, look at his last post: On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote: Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens. Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch. Good point, I overlooked that. Let's see what he flips then. ## Vote Obvious.660 He doesn't even understand the voting situation - his vote wouldn't have mattered, yet he plays it up like a big deal. In addition, he doesn't even know this is plurality lynch. This looks like a mafia member who joins bandwagons (look at his suspicion on Tube in his 2nd post) and doesn't even bother to read the thread, knowing all he has to do is stay friendly and cast suspicion. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 08:55 YourHarry wrote: This vote was made 50 minutes before the deadline. At this time, Obvious.660 had 6 votes vs. iamperfection's 3 votes. Fulla could have voted on someone else or not voted and the Obvious.660 lynch was VERY IMMINENT. There is no way scum Fulla would have risked looking suspicious knowing that he will be a part of a mislynch that was going to happen ANYWAY. A single vote isn't enough to clear a lurking player (with 4 posts) that shows up right before the lynch deadline. Moreover, what about the content of his post? He overplays the importance of his post ("Sigh... it seems it's all down to me..." WAT) and clearly demonstrated that he's not keeping up with the thread and votecount. Hell, he doesn't even know the game is plurality lynch before voting. For all I know, this sudden "I'M POSITIVE HE'S TOWNIE" stuff could've been a plan between the two of you in Mafia QT. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 09:09 YourHarry wrote: Lurking is not excusable behavior for TOWN AND SCUM. And in the absence of strong scum/town read, it may be OK to start a bandwagon against a lurking player. But when a player is obviously townie (and in my opinion, Fulla is obv townie), deciding to lynch a lurking townie may not be the best play for town. Hopefully he would start posting more. But WHYYYYY is he so obviously townie? You only list his vote as your reasoning. Do you think this outweighs his low post count, lurking, showing up right before the deadline, bandwagoning (against Tube and Obvious.660) AND misrepresenting the importance of his vote? Is there something I'm missing here? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 11:02 JingleHell wrote: Hapa, (yes, I'm about to ask your opinion, maybe the two of us will do better working together, since we operate from different angles), how do you feel about this notion, pure hypothetical: Scum tube, finally gets people off his case, sees Jingle as "aggressive townie", jumps on Obvious to try and ride the bandwagon. My primary reason for thinking this is plausible, tube was too happy to jump behind me, but once the heat on him dies down, and people start remembering "he made an effort", his posting starts regressing mostly. Thoughts? Its plausible, but I don't find it likely. For one, Tube's "post quality" doesn't deteriorate significantly, and it's a pretty natural reaction to post a bit carefree when the suspicion is shifted off of you. I devoted a few posts to establishing his innocence as well, so I think any shifts in posting style are explainable. This seems like a case of one townie willing to jump behind a strong personality of another likely-townie. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 11:08 calgar wrote: @vigilante – I believe our next lynch has a high likelihood of being iamperfection. A number of people currently consider him the best choice now. It doesn’t look like he is bothered to respond to accusations or post much in general. I strongly advise to (carefully) consider a hit on him to save us a day, imo. Then on to the bigger fish. It's only justifiable for vigi (if we haveone) to shoot someone if there's a really strong case against them. I'm not a fan of N1 vigi kills in general because of the relatively little information we have. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 12:13 tube wrote: You just stated all the consequences of vigi shooting a townie, which are inherent and already known to everyone. However, the much more likely scenario is that he actually is mafia and should therefore be taken out as early as possible. If you disagree with all of Mufaa's, Hapa's, and calgar's cases against him, then you should explain where the reasonable doubt comes from, because "it's too easy" doesn't really convince anyone. I never posted a case on iamperfection. I voted for YourHarry, and switched my vote when Calgar tried to lobby votes to prevent the Obvious.660 lynch by trying to vote for iamperfection. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 18 2012 07:31 Probulous wrote: Vote Count Obvious.660 (6): Tube (2): YourHarry (0): Fulla (1): Hopeless1der iamperfection (3): JingleHell (0): Obvious.660 set to be lynched Sooo here's the votelist. Let's break down the voting actions: I have limited time right now, so I'll break down the other non-Obvious.660 votes later today. DO NOT use this as an excuse to tunnel suspicion on only these people - make sure you read the filters of all the other players (including me) before casting votes. Voted for Obvious: YourHarry - Votes Obvious early (little reasoning), then votes JingleHell (quickly retracts), then revotes Obvious. JingleHell - Throws his votes/suspicion around several players, then settles on Obvious for most of D1 iamperfection - FOS on Calgar/YourHarry, then votes Obvious after the "list" post Tube - Spends most of D1 defending himself, then votes Obvious midway into D1 EvulRabbitz - Few posts/no FOS's, then votes Obvious for his vote on Tube Fulla - few posts, casts suspicion on Tube/Obvious, then votes Obvious close to the deadline On voting patterns alone, YourHarry and Evul stick out the most. Evul's filter consists of contentless-posts, then votes for Obvious.660. He hasn't casted a single FOS all game and has been pretty anti-discussion overall. Given that he just requested a replacement, I'm not sure if this is due to scum-motivated lurkiness (as the town lynches its own members) or simple inactivity. YourHarry's quick voteswitch to JingleHell looks REALLY suspicious to me - especially the content of his voteswitch post. Pay attention to his changing attitude/reasoning towards Jingle throughout the post. On July 18 2012 02:56 YourHarry wrote: If you think this, then uh-oh, you would be even more suspicious of me. I forgot to mention that when 3 people suddenly stacked on Obvious.660, I had my vote on him also, which made 4 votes. 3 sudden votes in the course of one hour, when Obvious.660 made it clear that he won't be able to comeback to defend himself, makes the voters scummy. And I - of course being town- can't help but suspect that scums are pushing Obvious.660 mislynch and then blame me (the first person to accuse Obvious.660 with little reason) for the mislynch. And I am not exactly accusing Jingle for not being logical. I find it suspicious that Jingle is quickly dismissing your defense of Obvious.660 though. So if I am right and some of the scums are quickly targeting Obvious.660, their motivation could be two fold. Obviously to mislynch Obvious.660. And to distract the town from suspecting one of the scums. Who was being accused at the time? Tube. FOS Tube and Jingle. I am OK with either lynch. Maybe we should go with Tube since Jingle has history with some of the players here, which would hopefully make it easier for townies to read if he is mafia indeed. ##Unvote ##Vote tube This looks sooooo scummy. First he says that he's suspicious of Jingle for dismissing my defense of Obvious, then he fingerpoints at Tube, then he removes his vote from Jingle (WAT!??!?!). | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Secondly, what's the point of your experience as mafia in a past game? Its useless to speculate what mafia will do based on completely seperate player pools. Moreover, you cast suspicion on Jingle (who me and Calgar have strong townie reads on), and suggest that you believe there's an active mafia based on the events of completely different players!!! Lastly, what's with your language? You're suspicious of two players, and you don't even cast an FOS or take any strong stances. What are you afraid of - if you're suspicious, make it clear instead of saying something wishy-washy like "There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players." FOS iamperfection | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
What do you mean you weren't suspicious of Jingle? What else is the purpose of this then? On July 18 2012 22:50 iamperfection wrote: There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players. What is your goal jingle? Do you want to win or do you want to be just justfied in your reasoning for when you get lynches. What purpose does this comment make? Well if perfection flips town he deserved it so dont look at me it was his fault not mine. Our goal is to win not to look good in our reasoning. It dosent matter if your reasoning is solid it has to be right. Dunno about others, but this reads as "I'm suspicious of Jingle." | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Funny enough, it's something I did this game =O http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=26#519 | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=29#577 Also, I haven't commented at all on your vote on Obvious.660. It could be seen as a bandwagon, but I don't find it suspicious in itself. As far as your posting goes, I suggest looking at the filters of Calgar and Mufaa, who've pointed suspicion at you. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 19 2012 04:32 iamperfection wrote: So you want me to throw out fingers of suspicon that really would serve no purpose other than to be used against me later. What purpose would fos serve the game will change in a few hours and as town the very little information we get come from the result of the night actions. Why be pigenholed now during the night. Its the same reason calgar is upset that jinglehell is trying to make a final be all decesion on who vig should kill. Also you didnt answer the question. my position on obvious was by far the worse i can do nothing to change on what i posted on day 1. Why wouldnt i just make a throwaway vote and semi bandwagon later on sombody else with less votes if i was a lurking mafia? I'm assuming the "throw out FOS" bit is in regards to my linked reply. I'm saying to take a strong stance against someone. You're wishy-washy and simply throw around suspicion without committing anywhere. This is a mafia-trait. TBH, I don't even understand your question. Its not like you voted for Obvious - you voted for him when his fate was still in question. How does your vote for Obvious vindicate you? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Its not like you voted for Obvious when he was set to be lynched - Instead of: Its not like you voted for Obvious - | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Evul was pretty quiet all game, so maybe Mafia was trying to kill a blue? Regardless, I'm happy to be alive, and let's make this day of discussion better than the last. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
tl;dr - I think Calgar is very townie. When looking for suspicious posts, its important to take the entire context of a person's play rather than individual posts. For example, I can dig through Jingle's filter and build a case on him for "suspicious and inconsistent play," yet Jingle is one of my very strong townie reads. Why? Because his play in full context shows a reckless player who tries to generate discussion - he's bound to have inconsistent/suspicious play based on his posting style alone. In the case against Calgar, I'm seeing all his inconsistent posts brought to light while ignoring the context of his play and any pro-townie evidence in his favor. So here's a question; has Calgar's play hurt or helped us this game? I'd say he helped us quite a bit. He generated a lot of discussion and got a lot of lurkers to talk. In Jingle's case, this is interpreted as him bandwagonning suspicion on several players before casting a vote on iamperfection. His fingerpointing play appears townie in full context. Another point Jingle makes is his "me-too" bandwagonning on my suspicions/ideas. Again, in full context, this isn't suspicious. I assume that Calgar thinks his strongest townie reads are Jingle and I, and he's been actively trying to make peace with (and between) us. Just take a look at this post: 1. @jingle and @hapa – jesus christ guys chill out already. Your back and forth is unproductive, distracting, spammy, and most importantly, anti-town. That is reason enough to stop, immediately. Deal with your issues outside of the thread. What part of this even makes sense from a mafia perspective? Why the hell would he attempt to break up a fight between us? Other than his last post to Jingle, he's been very active in trying to get on good terms with his top townie reads and stopped us from our distracting fight. This is 100% pure-colombian townie. As a final point, while I see "inconsistency" in Calgar's play, I don't see any any attemps to lie, mislead, or deflect. Inconsistency is indicative of reckless townie play - misleading play is very very mafia oriented. I don't see any indication of the latter at all. So before the town goes and bandwagons Calgar, ask yourself; is he really the most suspicious player here? Does he have any mafia-motive? In my opinion, no and no. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Regarding the "vigi hit" proposed by Calgar - The point about him disagreeing with Jingle and then agreeing with me is certainly "inconsistent," but where's the mafia motive? On him "trying" to get Obvious.660 Lynched - at that point, it was pretty much a hopeless cause. The votecout was 6 to 3, and swinging two votes given the town's general attitude seemed impossible, especially without any help (since I was gone catching a train). Regarding him "implying" suspicion Jingle then calling him strong townie read - Again, this seems more reckless than mafia-oriented. It looks like he was upset at Jingle's play rather than implying suspicion. There would be no reason for mafia to call Jingle a strong townie. It doesn't make sense. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
should be: On him "trying" to get iamperfection lynched Damn my lack of proofreading. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 19 2012 15:51 Hopeless1der wrote:Vigi hit: The mafia motive is to very weakly bus iamperfection, assuming they are both scum, while casting suspicion on Jingle and hoping to turn to you later to support him. The bus is the primary motive here to me. First of all, I don't see where he casts suspicion on Jingle. He's definetely critical of Jingle's play, but I don't see any instances of him casting direct suspicion (link me a post if I'm wrong, could've missed something). Critical =/= accusatory. Secondly, his "bus" on iamperfection isn't weak at all. He's really consistent about his attitude towards him throughout D1 and holds his suspicions throughout N1. But here's the key point: why would mafia EVER try to push for a N1 vigi kill on their ally?! Trying to Lynch Iamperfection: It WAS NOT completely hopeless at that point. The vote count never changed until after he'd made his statement that he was having a hard time defending Obvious.660 and gave up trying. - You switched vote to iamperfection --> Obvious 5, iamperfection 2 - Calgar joins your vote --> Obvious 5, iamperfection 3 - Calgar half asses his defense of Obvious and fails to push for iamperfection in any meaningful manner (I know he has a lack of posts to analyze and make a case with, but there was essentially nothing done other than rehash the fact that he looks scummy without adding anything new) - Fulla drops what could have been considered the hammer vote (plurality so not exactly, but whatever) At THIS point it is inevitable. Calgar had just about conceded his position two posts PRIOR to Fulla's vote. There's no difference between 6-3 and 5-3. Both situations still require two people to switch votes. Furthermore, there was a lot of reason to believe that the relatively inactive Fulla wouldn't come in to vote at all. Implying suspicion: There isn't a good reason for him to call Jingle town AND imply that he is being scummy. Calgar has seemingly done both, in that order. Though he maintains that Jingle is a town read, his 'elephant on piano keys' post details how Jingle's actions are scummier than calgar's, BUT Jingle is still a town read. This does not make sense to me and I considered that post to be riddled with scummy behavior. Is it wildly inconsistent and not make sense? Yes. Is it mafia-motivated? No. Why would he ever establish Jingle as a strong townie read? It just doesn't make sense from a mafia perspective. It's more plausible from a bad analysis/bad townie post perspective. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=20#384 Brought most of this stuff up, and he has some replies (in my opinion, insufficient) to those posts shortly afterwards. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 19 2012 21:53 JingleHell wrote: 1: The post was already linked. He directly implied only a scummy motive would want more evidence with perfection rather than wanting a vigi hit. You bring up WIFOM, but let's face it. At that point in time, if I was on the scum team, I'd be thinking the best possible use for Perfection would be dying to get me town credit. 2:Scum need at least one visible townie to keep around as a smokescreen for their own active players until later in the game. If they've been known to be unlucky like me, so much the better. Scum can't push an agenda if the entire thread is quiet. 3: Calgar, despite being so much more logical than me (according to himself) has yet to respond to my points with anything other than attempts to pick fights. 4: You've asked why scum Calgar would have posted telling us to stop fighting. That's ridiculous. Visible scum aiming for town leadership should do exactly that. 5: My case may seem like it's made up of tiny little things... wasn't it Calgar who, at the beginning, gave the scum a huge amount of credit saying not to look for big obvious things? 1) Perfection wasn't close to dying at any point in D1. Also, Calgar initiated the suspicion and was the first to vote against Perfection. I'd understand if Perfection attracted significant suspicion beforehand, but Tube was coming under very heavy fire for the few pages prior to Calgar's initial suspicion: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=16#302 2) You're speculating what mafia's going to do - how are we to know what the Mafia's plans are? Also, I don't understand the "unlucky" thing. 3) We're not even half-way into D2, so I don't want to make judgments on the validity of his defense. 4) I read this action the complete opposite. There's a lot of town motive in stopping thread-derailing fights as well. Could it be a mafia ploy? Maybe, but highly highly unlikely. 5) I don't follow your logic here. You're suggesting that Calgar willingly posted this scumhunting advice knowing it would hurt him in the future? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Secondly, if Calgar and I were mafia, wouldn't killing the only other vocal townie (and sniping a blue on top of that) be really freggin' good for us? We would dominate the discussion for the rest of the game and get people lynched at will. Thirdly, why the hell would we both be actively establishing your innocence, even AFTER you pushed the Obvious.660 mislynch? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 20 2012 00:11 JingleHell wrote: Haven't I already commented on the pile of WIFOM you're trying to feed me? Shooting me would have removed the panic button of pointing fingers at me for mislynches. I already explained that twice, so if you're not going to respond to the explanation, I've got nothing further to say on this. And your thirdly I've also answered. Please don't respond by asking questions I answered already with no substance, all WIFOM. That doesn't make any sense! Your theory is that you didn't get shot because people would fingerpoint you for the mislynch. The fingerpointing didn't happen! Hell both Calgar and I have actively asserted your innocence in spite of the mislynch! How the hell is that WIFOM? Your story about you not getting shot literally doesn't make any sense! | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
You think that Calgar and I, as hypothetical mafia, killed Evul instead of you, KNOWING that you'd think that you were kept alive by virtue of your "smokescreen" theory. Then KNOWING that you anticipated being fingerpointing for the mislynch (mind you, all of this prior to the N1 kill), we instead defended you in pure WIFOM. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 20 2012 00:19 JingleHell wrote: I'm saying that if I'm alive, I'm a diversion. If I'm dead, I'm the guy who was in Calgar's face about wanting a vigi on Perfection. If that doesn't make sense, I've given you far too much credit. In fact, I hope people won't believe you suddenly not being able to think. More than anyone else here, I can't stand your personality, but I still know you're sharp enough to understand what I'm saying, and feigning ignorance is so grossly out of character for you as a defense, that I hope others see it too. I still don't understand this. If you die, doesn't that increase the chances of iamperfection getting killed due to lack of townie opposition? Do you think that the lurkers in this game would take suspicion off iamperfection on the basis of your lynch? Or would they all bandwagon like they did with the Obvious.660 lynch? As far as I'm concerned, your suspicions are based on implausible stories. That Calgar and I, as hypothetical mafia, decided to jump through hoops and come up with a horrendously excessive and complex plan (leaving you alive and defending you) rather than taking an easy and effective solution (killing you). | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 20 2012 01:24 iamperfection wrote: --SNIP-- I think the mafia has been caught off guard by jingles claim and have resorted to logical fallicies in order to defend each other between hapa and calgar. I havent seen any suggestion by hapa and calgar in the last few pages of who we should be actively going for instead or if they have any new reads to go on they simply have resorted to attacking jingles defense. If calgar thinks im scum has he simply forgot that he should be scum hunting. If im this blatant scum read why hasent he tried to push with some more evidence. Im not buying his defense. ## vote calgar I"ve made it very clear that I want YourHarry lynched. Hell I even posted a link to my when Fulla mentioned his suspicions of YourHarry. If you're going to fire accusations, atleast READ damnit. As for Calgar, he's made it clear that he wants you dead - need he say it more? I mean hell, we have 30+ hours until the lynch deadline and you're blaming people about not pushing cases? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Good to see suspicion drifting off Calgar - vocal townies fighting vocal townies is a bad situation all around. Calgar, fantastic job defending yourself. YourHarry has been at the top of my lynch list since midway through D1, and he's been trying frantically to point any suspicion he can at Jingle/Calgar over the last few pages. He has not vindicated himself in my eyes, and I believe my earlier suspicions still hold valid. (I'll be sure to read his case and defense tomorrow to make sure. ) So for the reasons posted below: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=20#384 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=29#568 ##Vote YourHarry | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 20 2012 10:47 JingleHell wrote: Hey, Hapa. Credit where due, I also kept the situation tenable for communication to cool things down instead of going ballistic. Stroke my ego here a little ^5 I'll admit, I never would have seen you switching votes of Calgar a couple of hours ago. Good jobs all around. In addition, the Calgar case proved to be quite informative - YourHarry's reactions/bandwagon on Calgar pretty much convinced me he was scum. It's also interesting that the other player attracting suspicion (iamperfection) joined the bandwagon on Calgar as well. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
To break things down nice and neatly for Harry to respond. Suspicious early D1 Behavior: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=20#384 <--- My original case Suspicious D1 Voting Pattern (particulearly his vote and unvote of JingleHell) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=29#568 <--- My Explanation Suspicious attitude on Calgar/Jingle: On July 20 2012 01:05 YourHarry wrote: OH WOW. I THINK WE HAVE TO KILL JINGLE HELL........ JINGLE WHY DID YOU DRAW MAFIA.......... I WILL BE BACK LATER TO CLARIFY MY THOUGHTS On July 20 2012 01:09 YourHarry wrote: But....... Calgar today, i think. Jingle tomorrow maybe. "Desperation" to cast suspicion on JingleHell: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=39#762 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=38#755 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=40#781 That's the brief rundown. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=20#398 | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 20 2012 12:56 YourHarry wrote: To summarize: Jingle should have thought that vanillas also receive "roleblocked" notification (based on game XX). Therefore should NOT have thought that I was role hunting. Moreover, he continued to think I was role hunting even after our mod clarified that there was a confusion about "roleblocked" notification. I am going to the gym. Will be back in an hour or so. This is JingleHell's 4th game. His beliefs on roleblock notification aren't only influenced by game XX. I suggest looking at what the rules were regarding roleblock notification in his previous two games. On July 20 2012 13:02 YourHarry wrote: Before I leave, really quickly: Evidence why Jingle is Jail Keeper 1. No one has counter claimed. But this is semi-open, so there may not be Jail Keeper to counter claim 2. There is no reason why Jingle should have left the breadcrumb and claim JailKeeper if he were a scum. It would be very risky and almost had to depend on absence of Jail keeper. Small caveat. Jingle's initial breadcrumb did not actually say he is a jail keeper, it said JAILER CALGAR. Course of action If he is a Jail Keeper, he should be NK'ed soon enough anyway. When I come back, I am going to outline my case against calgar, who I think should be a lynch today. These are two HUGE caveats. How on earth can you suspect him after bringing these up yourself? As far as I know, that's your entire case. Hell, your points for Jingle are stronger tha your points against him. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
@ iamperfection: On July 21 2012 01:18 iamperfection wrote: i might regret this but The one thing i dont like about it is that he tries to cast suspicion on you. In my view looking at it you are basically mod confirmed townie in my view now. The only other possibilty is their would have to be a roleblocker on the scum team. However, combined with your ability to play the role of aggresive townie and the actual circumstance of the bread crumb i highly doubt your lying and combined with probulous basically confirming that their is a role block role i think its safe to assume your town. What i dont like about is why would the scum team continue to rally against you. It seems kind of silly to me to try and waste effort to try and cast doubt on you. Maybe im giving the scum team to much credit but in my view thier efforts are better spent else where. So basically harrys accusation are so dumb in my view that he might be town because the scum team as whole i would think would recognize it would be a lost cause to go against you. The problem is that YourHarry isn't really going after JingleHell. He's just pointing some vague suspicion at him (roleblock stuff) while pushing a case against Calgar. Watch how his attitudes to JingleHell change: On July 20 2012 01:05 YourHarry wrote: OH WOW. I THINK WE HAVE TO KILL JINGLE HELL........ JINGLE WHY DID YOU DRAW MAFIA.......... I WILL BE BACK LATER TO CLARIFY MY THOUGHTS On July 20 2012 01:09 YourHarry wrote: But....... Calgar today, i think. Jingle tomorrow maybe. Hapha, I do understand that the absence of counter claim is the cause of doubt in my case against Jingle. Until that happens, I am in no way suggesting Jingle lynch, at least not today. All this over the last day. That should speak for itself. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 21 2012 01:25 JingleHell wrote: Hapa, meta case please? He's annoying as town, but not this terrible. And frankly, on the incredibly off chance he flips town, I still wouldn't call it a wasted day to ditch him. Any time there's a lull he makes the dumbest possible case? Maybe in the first half of D1 you can argue for that, but that's about it. Frankly, I find it incredibly fishy that someone who's under suspicion would try to defend Harry. Meta case was posted D1 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=20#384 I'm hesitant to do anything past D1, since he's displayed awareness of his meta after this was posted. I think his D1 behavior should speak for itself though. As for iamperfection - I'm trying to wrap my head around how he voted for YourHarry a couple of pages ago to please us, and now is defending YourHarry with his vote still on him. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
##unvote YourHarry ##Vote drwiggl3s Furthermore, I'll be re-opening my suspicions on tube tomorrow for this vote. (Mafia bandwagon to the rescue?) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=44#870 | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 21 2012 06:32 YourHarry wrote: OMG this is a miracle, but I am OK for lynching anyone else but me of course. I think I still prefer Hopeless, but wiggles has been lurking and is trying to benefit from my lynch. ##Unvote ##Vote drwiggl3s You should send him a thank-you card, he just saved your life xD | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 21 2012 08:45 JingleHell wrote: Fulla and Tube, you really need to explain your votes. As I mentioned a few hours ago, the timing of Tube's post is pretty rediculous: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=44#870 Jingle had just confronted wiggles for the scumslip, and Tube comes crashing in (without any analysis) with a vote on iamperfection, the person with the most votes at the time. Furthermore, Tube hadn't posted ALL of day 2 - a mafia sitting back and lurking while the town teared each other limb from limb? He only came back when his buddy was under fire. FOS Tube | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 21 2012 13:13 Hopeless1der wrote: --SNIP-- Day 1, wiggles was pushing tube as his scum read. I sincerely doubt he would have tried to bus that early in the game. This is a much weaker conclusion, but the case on tube seemed like a legitimate attempt to get him lynched. I'm not 100% convinced that tube is town, but he's now going to be one of the last players I consider as a potential scum. --SNIP-- While wiggles did build a case on Tube, its important to note the timing and situation in which he did so. Wiggles votes for Tube when the bandwagon train is firmly on Obvious.660 (3 votes for obvious, vs 1 vote for a bunch of other people) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=22#423 They then get into an "argument" when Obvious.660 is set to lynch. After the night, drwiggl3s never mentions Tube again, even after grilling him for so long. This points to the "argument" being staged in a safe situation for both mafia. But the most incriminating evidence against Tube is his D2 vote and his complete lack of posting on D2. Tube was willing to post plently on N1, then immediately got quiet when suspicion was flying around Calgar and YourHarry. Furthermore, he comes in right when Jingle points out drwiggl3s scumslip and bandwagon votes iamperfection. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=44#870 <--- the vote, be sure to read the context around it | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 21 2012 23:57 JingleHell wrote: Hapa, what do you think about that directly contradictory posting by Fulla? Can't tell if its bad-townie or mafia-oriented. He hasn't posted enough for me to make a read either way. If he continues with his low postcount (despite his earlier promises to do otherwise), he'll be my target of suspicion (after Tube of course). | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 21 2012 23:57 calgar wrote: Careful, you know where this got me last time around lol Oh noes D= We do have 2 days of information this time around though, so I'm pretty comfortable with the vigi taking a shot on our body of information. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 22 2012 02:39 iamperfection wrote: also im going to the casino for the rest of the night wish me luck. Good luck sir, may they not rob you for all you're worth =D | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
D2 started out on the wrong track, but fortunately we pulled a good lynch out of it at the end. Let's find us another scum D3. @ Calgar - I'm on the same page with you on iamperfection, but I thought you mentioned before the D2 lynch that you were reading him as townie? Why the change in attitude? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
"Intro Posts" - The sample intro posts you give, while similar in length, are far different in content. His mafia XIX post is policy bullshit and attempting to be diplomatic. His XXI post is pretty confrontationa. "Asserting Noobiness" - He asks a legitimate question in your first quote, and then draws attention to himself (asking to clarify accusations against him) on his second. This is far from asserting "noobieness" "Attacks on other player's logic" - Again, these are completely different attitudes. In mafia XIX, he directly attacks the person's logic and uses it against them. In Mafia XXI, he disagrees with your premise, but supports your conclusion. "Showing Indecision" - Completely two different posts - he's indecisive and fingerpointing in XIX ("unsure between fencer and anceltus"), but in XXI, he is aggressive and decisive in his desire to persue "active mafia." Do I support his rationale? No. But is the tone completely different? Yeah. "A promise to return to action" - I don't think these are scumtells on their own. Plus, he did come back from the casino and delivered some Admiral Ackbar. On that subject, I find it unlikely that mafia iamperfection would come home drunk from a casino and post admiral ackbar in his defense. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
@ SpeedBump - please elaborate your thoughts on iamperfection. I know you're catching up, but "gut feeling" isn't enough to get someone lynched. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 23 2012 01:09 calgar wrote: Maybe you're right. The point that convinced me the most was that he seemed like a better player last game - let me know what you think about that. Playing better or worse isn't a scumtell as far as I'm concerned. In fact, playing worse could be viewed as reckless "townie" play. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 23 2012 03:17 Fulla wrote: I've tried building a case but it just gets ignored. If someone would point out why I am wrong or they disagree I could rethink. Whoops sorry for missing this, I'll get to your case later tonight | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=50#997 I completely agree about Tube, and and I posted my suspicions on him here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=50#981 He really hasn't attempted to defend himself so far, and his only response to my accusation was a one-liner scarcastic post. As for Hopeless, I don't think he's mafia. He's been posting some good analysis today, and him defending Tube against the entire town can be seen as a townie-trait. If Tube flips mafia, I'll have to look very carefully at Hopeless's filter, but other than that, I have no basis to suspect him of anything. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Since I haven't done this already for some reason: ##Vote Tube It is important that we don't use the heavy suspicion on Tube to completely stop our discussion. First half of D3 was pretty quiet by all of our standards (myself included), and we should be maintaining our discussions for the next 24 hours. Remember, even if Tube flips red, there's still a 2nd mafia out there we need to find. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Mafia dying w/out giving any reads. Pretty standard. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I had Calgar as a very pro-town read earlier in the game (and came to his defense on D2), but I’ve found some of his actions over the past few days very suspicious. Calgar’s Response to drwiggl3s’ Scumslip After JingleHell posts his case against drwiggl3s and votes him, Calgar posts this: On July 21 2012 04:38 calgar wrote: I'll agree with you that drwiggles is a good lynch right now. Is he better than harry though? I'm planning to move my vote away from iamperfection - I may have come up with a solution to him, I'll post more on that in a little. Harry under fire has given us good reads on how several people have reacted. He keeps his options open, while maintaining his suspicions against YourHarry. He only votes drwiggl3s after three more townies INSTANTLY vote drwiggl3s after reading his exchange with Jingle. By then, drwiggl3s is firmly in the vote lead. Given how sudden the counter-bandwagon was on drwiggl3s (since YourHarry was basically set to mislynch D2), this is consistent with a mafia in disarray and not sure what to do after the drwiggl3s scumslip. After drwiggl3s flips red, Calgar posts an analysis of drwiggl3s filter – a “summary post.” http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=48#960 Calgar “tunneling” suspicion on multiple players Calgar has been fingerpointing several players throughout the game. Early in the game, he posts suspicion against three players: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=31#610 Then immediately after the drwiggl3s lynch, Calgar posts: On July 22 2012 08:23 calgar wrote: Alright townies, I’ll call it like I see it. Sorry to see you go jingle, we'll bag the rest for ya. @confirmed townies – I consider everyone besides iamperfection, tube, fulla, and speed to be more or less ‘confirmed’ as town. This is in varying degrees, of course, considering the fact that we're going on guesses based on our reasoning. I feel reasonably confident that there is enough info to make solid assumptions here in most of the cases. @direction – It’s difficult to say where to go now because the remaining players are a mix of inactivity and suspicious activity which is helping the mafia hide. I think all four of them have been generally inactive, some moreso than others. I assessed what tiny bit of mufaa’s old filter was there and the vague feel I got based off of it was town. Going off of what little that is, I’m inclined to put him/speedbump on hold and go towards the other three for now. IGMEOY iamperfection, tube, fulla I'll kick things off with this vote since it seems to be where hopeless and hapa are leaning towards also. ##Vote iamperfection He then posts what I consider a really bad meta case against iamperfection. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=52#1022 After my response… http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=52#1029 …he puts more suspicion on iamperfection: On July 23 2012 01:09 calgar wrote: Maybe you're right. The point that convinced me the most was that he seemed like a better player last game - let me know what you think about that. After which he gives up his case without a word and votes Tube, right after iamperfection votes for Tube: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=53#1045 | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
There's a huge difference between trying to make oneself less suspicious and drawing attention to one's potentially suspicious actions. Hopeless does the latter in the posts mentioned in Calgar's case: On July 18 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote: So, am I going to get chewed out for not changing my vote? If I do, its a last minute bandwagon, and if I don't its because I Obviously (teehee) "knew" he was town. Unless someone unvotes Obvious.660, there is no way to alter the vote at this point because he got to 6 votes first. Points suspicion to his own vote - why would he do that as Mafia? On July 18 2012 07:51 Hopeless1der wrote: If he flips scum, I still look bad because I've said he looked scummy, but didn't put my vote on him. I made that post to demonstrate the fact that I think I'm screwed no matter what I do at this point. Points suspicion to himself again... On July 18 2012 07:58 Hopeless1der wrote: I'm preemptively pointing out the fact that I'm going to look scummy regardless of what I do, before someone can turn it into a case and run with it. Perhaps I should have just stayed quiet, but I've already said I'd be around at the deadline and I can see this turning out poorly for me. I'm trying to make my situation as transparent as possible to prevent people from considering I'm scum because of my voting pattern. Again, pointing suspicion at himself. He doesn't make excuses for his actions at all. Hopeless has already commented on the quote about him "positioning" after the Tube lynch, and I think he gives a satisfactory explanation - Calgar reads into his post the wrong way | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
For everyone else, I'd appreciate any comments on my FOS on Calgar http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=55#1092 | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I figure our 3rd blue is a 2nd Vet, detective, or a vigi. Since we're in MYLO and there's likely only one blue role left it seems like a good time to roleclaim. Thoughts? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 25 2012 11:23 YourHarry wrote: Dude, guys. This is MYLO. We should NOT vote. You can FOS, but voting could allow scums to bandwagon and end the game immediately. I don't mind votes if they lead to discussion. Remember, votes are easily changeable, especially with just under 48 hours left until the lynch deadline. What are your thoughts on the suspicions brought forth so far? (Hopeless1der and Calgar) | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 25 2012 12:15 YourHarry wrote: Hapha, are you vanilla? Vanilla Townie (Senior?) indeed - thought I didn't need to make it clear, since I'd have roleclaimed already if I was blue. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 25 2012 13:01 YourHarry wrote: Yea, that's what I assumed but just to make it clear. I don't know... I suck Someone help LOL. Well sitting around asking for help isn't going to get Mafia to reveal themselves to us. Dig through some filters and try to find something. Or atleast comment on one of the existing cases. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 25 2012 18:01 YourHarry wrote: Wait, never mind. Calgar could still be the scum, but town calgar means either hopeless1 or iamperfection (or both) MUST be scums. This is because, if both hopeless1 and iamperfection are town voting for calgar, the scums would have already mislynched calgar. I don't follow - please explain? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 25 2012 17:59 YourHarry wrote: FOS Speedbump and Calgar for being inactive and possibly lurking. Come share your thoughts with us. Thanks Hopeless and iamperfection for posting your reads. Please continue to chime in as well as join me in voting for no lynch. Hapha, what do you think about other people's case on calgar? Dood - I made the case on calgar =/ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=55#1092 | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 25 2012 16:48 YourHarry wrote: --SNIP-- Hapha, when Jingle started accusing drwiggles, what made you so obviously sure that drwiggles was scum? And you felt so adamant about everyone taking their votes from me. You were so sure? Whoops missed this on my first readthrough: Drwiggl3s scumslip + Jingle's Case (Click) were pretty convincing justification to lynch wiggl3s. I mean that scumslip was really really bad. As for being adamant about getting votes off of you, drwiggl3s "trap" (being so sure that you were going to flip green) strongly suggested that you were townie. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 26 2012 09:55 Speedbump wrote: Bolded the logical flaw I see in your post. It's much easier to make assumptions about how replacements play, instead of actually playing the game. To answer your flawed analysis there; unless the player pre-replacement plays exceptionally poorly, I don't think that the replacement has any onus of burden to defend himself overzealously, like you're implying. In fact, overzealous play causes more problems for town, with potential mislynches. But then, when one is reckless and grasping at straws the whole game, it would be easier to make more brash and reckless assumptions to mislynch and win. Have you got anything substantial to go on, or is this all purely WIFOM? FoS calgar Calgar's suspicions are pretty reasonable, and its inexcusable for a player to not post for 48 hours when the town's at MYLO. You claim your internet cut out, but you were pretty quick to defend yourself when people started calling you out. You also spend more time decrying Calgar's "flawed analysis" than actually analyzing his case. Hell, I haven't seen you analyze well... anything since you joined. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 26 2012 11:57 Speedbump wrote: @Hapahauli and calgar: So what you're claiming is that I would somehow lie about internet connections being disconnected, and then conspicuously re-appear when I defend myself? Would you say the same thing if I re-appeared and I wasn't in the situation of defending myself? I find it odd that people tend to misconstrue things that happen with unfortunate timings with less trepidation than is due. Matter of fact is, my net cut out for two days. This was both my mobile internet and the wifi at the backpackers I was staying at during the time. There was literally nothing I can do about that. If you want to overlook hunting for mafia to rail at me for not having an internet connection at the time, then town will lose. Even if we ignore your 48 hour break, you still haven't done anything resembling analysis. Furthermore, this is the second time you're bandwagonning on the suspicion du jour - first Tube and now Calgar. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 27 2012 05:28 calgar wrote: You still haven’t posted any analysis or reads besides your OMGUS. Any of that coming anytime? Why don't you post some of you reads? Calgar, are we reading the same posts here? Speedbump posted some pretty damning evidence against you, and you brush it off as "OMGUS." I mean look at this: On July 26 2012 14:09 Speedbump wrote: Day 1, you spend all your time flip-flopping your vote between iamperfection who you had constantly railed and backflipped to the whole day and YourHarry. (who you only decided to vote for after Hapahauli made his case) This was done in a manner of a person who doesn't care which person is lynched, which is heavily anti-town. Day 2, more time spent flip-flopping between YourHarry and imperfection. This time, you spend a slight amount of time on Fulla's inactivity, while still heavily railing YourHarry and iamperfection. Afterwards, you continue your tunneling of iamperfection. You tthen decided to sheep drwiggl3s, while still tunneling YourHarry, only voting for drwiggl3s once he had 4 votes on him. Day 3, yet more time spent tunneling iamperfection, only deciding to follow iamperfection in voting tube, after Hapahauli and Hopeless1der had already weighed in their suspicions of tube. This sudden flip-flop on your aggression towards iamperfection looks very suspicious, considering a mislynch in that scenario leads to MYLO the next day. That's some pretty serious stuff here that warrants a serious response. Also, I found this quote amusing: On July 26 2012 03:54 calgar wrote: My play has definitely been reckless. I’ve been aggressive and posted reads and made mistakes. That’s been the same all game long. I was grasping at straws when I tried to read in hopeless, kind of like with my attempted meta-analysis of iamperfection. Here’s my new case. I haven't seen you take one controversial issue all game. Speedbump does a great job of pointing this out - you've piggybacked off other people's suspicions/cases (often mine) for the last few days. Furthermore, the only consistent case you've made (against iamperfection) you've wildly flip-flopped attitudes on. I suggest you start defending yourself. ##Vote Calgar | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
##Vote Calgar | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 28 2012 11:12 calgar wrote: Does Harry's read as town not mean anything to you? Can you explain Harry's read to me? I honestly have no idea why that makes you town, nor do I even understand it. Humor me - what if I were town? Certainly mafia would leave me alive, right? I'm an automatic mislynch because of all the suspicion on me. Are you really sure there are no blues left? I think there's one more. Look at past games - I doubt there have ever been only two. This is all WIFOM, but if no one had a strong read on me, why would I go posting my bullshit cases on several people? I think this shows the motive of desperate townie more than mafia. ...or you're alive because you're mafia. Why else would you ignore the cases against you, or dismiss Speedbump's post as "OMGUS" when it had some pretty damning content. Oh, and there can be two blues in a game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856 | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 29 2012 04:57 calgar wrote: Well, I don't really know, but if I had to guess I'd say speedbump + hapa. Congratulations Calgar, you now have standing suspicions against every player in this game. But seriously... you're saying you bandwagonned on all of my suspicions and cases since Day 1 because you thought I was mafia?!?! | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Hey town! I’d like to post a formal response on Calgar’s defense to accusations against him. Calgar uses misleading evidence in his defense, and furthermore, uses this misleading evidence to cast suspicion on other people. This all but confirms to me that he is a desperate mafia. (For Reference: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=59#1171) The bulk of Calgar’s defense is comprised of the following points: 1) All the people who had town reads on him are dead 2) Speedbump is a better lynch 3) YourHarry’s “read” 4) Defending his actions On the first two points, Calgar uses misleading/false evidence to make his defense. On sections 3 and 4, I find Calgar’s defense insufficient, and there are other instances of misleading evidence as well. Defense #1 (Misleading): ”All the people who had town reads on Calgar are dead” Obvious.660 read me as town. So did jingle. Apparently YourHarry did too. You’re voting against all of their reads, as confirmed town. Doesn’t sound smart to me. On July 29 2012 03:27 calgar wrote: --SNIP— YourHarry got his read right on me. So did jingle, so did obvious. One last mislynch and it’s game over. Am I really the best lynch? On July 29 2012 08:35 calgar wrote: --SNIP-- Everyone who thought I was town was shot. Is that not a little bit weird? Is mafia not trying to aim a mislynch in a certain direction? Seems like it would be really easy to do so. Calgar implies that YourHarry, Jingle, and Obvious were killed because they suspected him of being town. This is false and inconsistent on several levels. Firstly, Obvious was lynched, and NOT night-killed by mafia. Calgar suggests that mafia got Obvious lynched (via bandwagonned), then promptly casts suspicion on Speedbump and myself… who didn’t vote for Obvious.660 Day 1!!! This is completely inconsistent, and Calgar uses false statements to cast suspicions on multiple player. Secondly, Calgar implies that Jingle and YourHarry were lynched because mafia wanted a mislynch. This is absurd, considering that YourHarry was a confirmed townie and Jingle breadcrumbed Jailkeeper. Again, misleading evidence. Defense #2 (Misleading): ”Speedbump is a better lynch” Calgar posts the following against Speedbump in his defense: I see mafia motive behind speedbumps' lack of posting. He should have been more active since he agreed to replace in. He didn't need to be, though, because the town was headed to mislynch with fingers pointing the wrong direction. He steps in soon after getting attacked, but only enough to divert attention. Where are his reads? Why isn't he posting any analysis? He doesn't need to be. I was the easiest target for him to focus on because of my recent accusation against hopeless, so he pointed the finger back to me. Well, it's worked so far so tip of the hat to him. Calgar accuses Speedbump of not posting any analysis, yet he responds to that very analysis in the very same post! (see the section titled: “what it boils down to”). Speedbump posts analysis of Calgar’s voting/suspicion history http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=58#1146]HERE[/url], yet Calgar pretends it has never existed for the purposes of his accusation. Calgar simply sticks to his original case against Speedbump, tunneling accusations with outdated rationale. Calgar also does exactly what he accuses Speedbump of doing (re: attacking the easiest target). Calgar attacks Speedbump for lurking (after iamperfection first points out his lurkiness mind you), and as previously stated, tunnels him with outdated case (re: not posting analysis). Defense #3 (Insufficient): “YourHarry’s ‘read’” Calgar posts this on YourHarry’s “read”: I think it does show me as town, though. At this point jingle is essentially ‘confirmed town’ and had most of the towns support. When I was asked if I were roleblocked, the easiest answer would have been to say yes. By saying I didn’t, I directly contradicted everything jingle had said and claimed. He claimed jailor, he claimed he jailed me, according to the rules, I should have been notified. Why would I challenge him like that if I were mafia? I posted honestly, instead, contradicting him. The mod came in and conveniently explained everything so that jingle was once again essentially confirmed, and me essentially confirmed as having no active role due to the lack of notification. I couldn’t have known that the mod was going to post the explanation though. As far as I was concerned, it could have turned into a huge “me vs. jingle who is lying about the roleblock” debate. I had less town cred so I would have lost that, guaranteed. From what I understand, the YourHarry read comes down to the moderator somehow confirming Calgar being town through a mod message. I haven’t found anything to suggest this. The mod confirms that Calgar doesn’t have a role, which means he’s either town or role-less mafia. I’m obviously leaning towards the latter. Calgar considers his denial of him getting roleblocked to confirm him as town. This is ridiculous – if he said he received the PM, then the mod clarified the roleblock, he would have to fake a blue role without having breadcrumbed one earlier in the game. It would be easy to catch him in this lie in the late game. Defense #4 (Insufficient/Misleading): “Defense of his Actions” This is an assortment of other parts of his defense that I find highly suspect: First, his defense of his stance on iamperfection is misleading: I’ve already explained my thoughts on iamperfection. If he flips mafia then I guess I’m the fool for falling for his antics. I’ve seen the other people playing poorly this game flip town. I changed my mind before I had to see him flip this time. Well, this didn’t work very well considering jingle died. The selection where Calgar quotes himself is from directly before the drwiggl3s lynch. He treats it as if that was his final stance on iamperfection and that it was the end of his suspicions. This is a lie Later in the game, he resumes his suspicions on iamperfection with this bad meta case (as I pointed out in my original suspicions of Calgar) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=52#1022 He misrepresents his quote as his final attitude on iamperfection and conveniently ignores his bad meta case. Regarding “the breadcrumb revisited”, Calgar says that his response-breadcrumb to JingleHell proves his innocence, because JingleHell should have died that night if Calgar was scum. I find this insufficient and “WIFOMy,” in light of all the evidence against Calgar’s play suggesting the exact opposite. tl;dr: Calgar uses misleading evidence in his defense, and uses this misleading evidence to cast suspicion on other players. Calgar is Mafia | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 29 2012 10:31 calgar wrote: You've posted twice in 60 hours - sleep has nothing to do with this. What does a different timezone have to do with that kind of inactivity? Mafia is literally lurking to victory here. A real townie would be making reads and trying to be productive. Speedbump's filter (or absence in this case) should speak for itself. I think a lot of the case for poor voting can be made for hopeless and iamperfection. Come on guys, switch your votes! They're hoping you'll go along with the case. Try and rethink it objectively based on the facts. "Come on guys, switch your votes! Don't listen to all the evidence against me! Trust me!" lol. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
My Analysis of Calgar's Defense http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=59#1180 tl;dr: Calgar uses misleading evidence in his defense, and uses this misleading evidence to cast suspicion on other players. Calgar is Mafia | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 30 2012 08:30 JingleHell wrote: So, would a scum mind explaining the NKs that weren't me? Augh, the NK's were terrriiiibad in hindsight. Kinda got lucky not shooting Calgar though. Here's the rundown: Night 1: - I liked the general direction of the town D1 (from a scum perspective) and the EvulRabbitz NK was a way to get a "clean kill," keeping the town pointing suspicions at each other. Evul was also being really really quiet, and we thought he could be the medic or something. This, in hindsight, was stupid considering his DT meta in Newbie XX. We also debated killing Fulla (possible bluesnipe/clean kill) and Calgar (town analyst) Night 2: Killed Jingle (duh) on the basis that Medic/Jailer/3rd blue seemed too OP a possible blue setup. Fun fact: none of us spotted Jingle's breadcrumb. Night 3: Killed Fulla as a bluesnipe. In retrospect, this was a terrible decision, and we should have shot YourHarry without question. Night 4: YourHarry for being a confirmed townie. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Reference: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=59#1171 For starters, I liked Calgar's defensive style - bolded points w/ spoiler tags, I'mma goin to steal that from him. When defending himself against my case, Calgar had some really really good stuff for his defense that unfortunately got buried in the rest of his post. His point, "revisiting the breadcrumb" was incredibly strong, and spamming it throughout the thread may well have saved him from getting lynched. IMO it practically confirmed him as town, and I was terrified of addressing it directly (hence me burying it at the end of my "formal response" to his defense, dismissing it as "WIFOM"). Furthermore, he didn't push for Speedbump's lynch nearly hard enough. The bulk of Calgar's plea to lynch Speedbump was buried in a longer 4-paragraph post (HERE). When dealing with less-vocal townies (Hopeless and iamperfection), it may be more effective to emphasize your suspicions (bold "speedbump is scummy", "why isn't he dead as replacement", etc) - tell people how to think rather than trust them to read and consider your posts. On July 30 2012 09:56 Blazinghand wrote: ... Also, iamperfection should have known calgar was town since he had a town read on hopeless-- if calgar is scum, even, one of hapa/speed had to be scum, and for them to bus so thoroughly made little sense. Can you explain this? Thanks! | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 30 2012 10:38 calgar wrote: Eh, I dunno. I don't think I could have overcome confirmation bias... they weren't contemplating any other possibility. Anything I said would have been (and was) twisted immediately and since they hadn't figured it out by then I don't think anything I could have said would have mattered. Well that's what I mean - you trust the town's analyitical skills too much. By the time you start being aggressive, the town is already convinced of your guilt. For example, what if you responed to my original accusation like this: "It doesn't make sense for me to be scum considering my reverse-breadcrumb at JingleHell. Scum Calgar would have NK'd him on the spot. There would be no reason for me to leave him alive, unless I somehow forsaw these events a week ago. If someone can prove to me how this doesn't confirm me as town, I'll respond to the accusations against me." IMO, you'd have a pretty good chance of convincing Hopeless and iamperfection of your innocence. To me the final giveaway was when you made the fake 'FoS' and then backed off and came at me with the huge 'case'. Yeah, at that point, I figured I could close out the game regardless of your suspicions. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 30 2012 13:34 JingleHell wrote: And you told me it was too obvious. Which is when I started coming up with tons of contingency plans for it that had NOTHING to do with the original intent. Never show indecisiveness. Even if you backtrack all over yourself, do it aggressively. It makes you townie. Like Hapa. He stayed assertive and stayed below people's most scummy spot. What was the original plan behind your breadcrumb? I didn't know what to think when you mentioned you were trying to get me NK'd xD | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 30 2012 23:10 JingleHell wrote: The original plan was to RB Calgar, who I thought was shady. The notion of "trying" to get you NKed to see if scum were after you came when I was told it was blatantly obvious by BallsinHand. Well, if it's that obvious, how can I use that? You got to admit, from a contingency plan point of view, it was a good use. Or could have been, had it been actually noticed. I thought your read (regarding me being not dead) was pretty good, and you might have gotten on the right track had you not stuck to the Me + Calgar scumteam theory. Wasn't too much a fan of the "obviousness" of the breadcrumb though - Jailer's a pretty powerful townie role, and is pretty bad to get a blue role like that shot N2. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 31 2012 10:02 Hopeless1der wrote: You trying to get both of them convinced me that one of them was definitely scum. I really thought it was calgar and iamperfection. @Hapa, did you really have a train to catch day1? I regretted typing it immediately after I sent it, but it was 100% truth - I was travelling in and out of the city for the past week EDIT: And I promise this is not covering my bases for future game meta or anything =P | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Non-suspicious player trying to look less suspicious = mafia motive | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 31 2012 10:51 JingleHell wrote: True story. The mafia know who's who. Everyone else only knows about themselves and flips. Best solution, never trust anybody. Never make a soft case. Even if a case is weak, make a hard sale. People seemed to think I was overly relentless early, that's actually just because if you back off from a position without a good reason, it's scummy as all hell. Hapa, can you honestly tell me you wouldn't have had me mislynched in five minutes if I'd been similarly vocal, but with soft pressure instead of the relentless shit I did? Wishy washy, preparing busses, spreading confusion... I agree with being aggressive, but as Probulous said, it's very dangerous to cross the line into being relentless. In a game with such limited information, it gets really easy to lock onto an opponent and twist everything he/she says into scummy behavior (re: my case on you D2 in Newbie XX). So yes, it's rarely a good idea to be wishy-washy and simply point suspicion. However, it's not scummy to be aggressive against someone, then simply switch to another target if they seem townie enough. As for a hypothetical Jingle playing wishy-washy... well I'd wonder if there were two scumteams in the game or something o_O The only way to play active town is to be implacable. If you're really town, you should be able to explain most of your motive for actions if you get quizzed on them. That's why scum lurk a lot. Less to explain. But it does lose you the hidden benefit of having provided a town read (assuming you can stay fairly consistent). Example - If Hapa had tried what Wiggles did, when he did, it would have turned into a last minute 50/50 OMGUS shouting match to see who got lynched. Or just a straight up success for the ploy. 50% from an OMGUS war would have been my BEST odds of living through it. Highly highly disagree with the bolded statement. While a lot of newbie-game cases tend to focus on pointing out inconsistent play, it's rarely mafia behavior. For example, YourHarry, Tube, and Calgar all got mislynched for "inconsistent" play (and an inability to explain their play), however, they were all town. For example, YourHarry's consipracy theories should have made him seem very town, even though they were crazy theories overall. Also, Calgar's play was inconsistent, it was more inline with "recklessness" rather than scummy behavior. Basically, I think the typical newbie-game participant tends to emphasize the wrong reads when finding scum. Inconsistent play is often townie play, and if you don't have a perfect story for your actions, I'd be inclined to read you as town. Inconsistent play isn't bad townie play - it just can be bad in newbie games since newbies focus on surface-reads rather than looking for mafia-motive. | ||
| ||