EPTThanks Hopeless and iamperfection for posting your reads. Please continue to chime in as well as join me in voting for no lynch.
Hapha, what do you think about other people's case on calgar?
Newbie Mini Mafia XXI - Page 57
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Thanks Hopeless and iamperfection for posting your reads. Please continue to chime in as well as join me in voting for no lynch. Hapha, what do you think about other people's case on calgar? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
Since it's 4-2 its MYLO not LYLO. No lynch is clearly the best move right now. Mafia mislynch is game over. We are improving our chance for a lynch the next day and also giving DT another night to check. I figure there's no med, probably no vigi since no kill to date, and I guess there could be another vet but I think it's more likely DT. I don't think DT should claim. I've been trying to say that I don't think claiming is good here. We should get one more night of a potential DT check before doing a mass claim. I find it odd that you guys are voting on MYLO. ##Vote nolynch | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
On July 25 2012 18:01 YourHarry wrote: Would you clarify this? The vote would just pile up until the end of the 48 hour period right, giving them time to switch away?Wait, never mind. Calgar could still be the scum, but town calgar means either hopeless1 or iamperfection (or both) MUST be scums. This is because, if both hopeless1 and iamperfection are town voting for calgar, the scums would have already mislynched calgar. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 25 2012 18:01 YourHarry wrote: Wait, never mind. Calgar could still be the scum, but town calgar means either hopeless1 or iamperfection (or both) MUST be scums. This is because, if both hopeless1 and iamperfection are town voting for calgar, the scums would have already mislynched calgar. I don't follow - please explain? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 25 2012 17:59 YourHarry wrote: FOS Speedbump and Calgar for being inactive and possibly lurking. Come share your thoughts with us. Thanks Hopeless and iamperfection for posting your reads. Please continue to chime in as well as join me in voting for no lynch. Hapha, what do you think about other people's case on calgar? Dood - I made the case on calgar =/ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=55#1092 | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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iamperfection
United States9634 Posts
On July 26 2012 00:08 Hopeless1der wrote: Here's my problem with voting for a No-Lynch. We'd need to be prepared for the last minute vote from scum, because its plurality and they might be able to sneak the mislynch in today. I'm usually available at deadline, but I can't guarantee it, and I don't want to even give scum the chance to pull a fast one. If we can get 5 of us to agree to be around at the deadline I'll consider it. If you and me switch to no lynch that cant happen. that would bring it to 5 if a "town" speed bump randomly voted for someone and if the two scum switched no lynch would still win. Right? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 25 2012 16:48 YourHarry wrote: --SNIP-- Hapha, when Jingle started accusing drwiggles, what made you so obviously sure that drwiggles was scum? And you felt so adamant about everyone taking their votes from me. You were so sure? Whoops missed this on my first readthrough: Drwiggl3s scumslip + Jingle's Case (Click) were pretty convincing justification to lynch wiggl3s. I mean that scumslip was really really bad. As for being adamant about getting votes off of you, drwiggl3s "trap" (being so sure that you were going to flip green) strongly suggested that you were townie. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 26 2012 00:16 iamperfection wrote: If you and me switch to no lynch that cant happen. that would bring it to 5 if a "town" speed bump randomly voted for someone and if the two scum switched no lynch would still win. Right? I think you're right actually. I wasn't considering "No-Lynch" to be a person and thought if someone came away with even 1 vote they'd get lynched. ##Unvote ##Vote: No Lynch | ||
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iamperfection
United States9634 Posts
## vote no lynch | ||
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iamperfection
United States9634 Posts
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
I’ve rethought what I think about hopeless and him calling out that there was no doctor. Jingle knew there might not be a doctor but he tried to stay alive by ‘requesting’ it nevertheless. Hopeless points out that there probably isn’t one. Jingle is mad because hopeless has just killed whatever small chance jingle had of living to the next day. I think mafia wouldn’t have wanted jingle to be warned so explicitly. Maybe he still had some hope left and might not have done anything productive at night. I’ll stop here because it descends into even more WIFOM but I think hopeless is town because of this. Now, town should 100% no lynch. Whoever mafia hits, even Harry who we have strong feelings about, the field will be narrower and there is one less person to hide behind. Town will have a good chance at getting mafia lynched and that will bring it to 3-1, still very winnable. Mafia wants to lynch today and for people to get overzealous and go for their reads prematurely. Town needs to play logically here. Logic says no lynch is the best call statistically. My case now is against our replacement. Whatever you think about me, I think there is a better case for him. I think the burden is on the replacer to clear their name with aggressive posting and reads. I think if he were town he would have tried much harder to do so. Wouldn’t you if you had replaced in? This isn’t someone like tube who signed up and then gave up. He signed up as a replacement and then accepted it. I think he should care more considering he joined recently. He should have been posting much more, except for the fact that he hasn’t needed to since lurking would have almost won with people lynching on MYLO. He left us dangling with a promise to return. iamperfection is on the right track for calling him out. It’s interesting that mafia didn’t kill harry OR Speedbump-- not shooting Harry was a gamble, since he’s confirmed townie, to try and get a mislynch. Speedbump, though, as a replacement, traditionally gets the ‘benefit of the doubt’ and wouldn’t be lynched at LYLO. Mafia has definitely thought of this! viscera would have thought of it, and they are probably aware of it from guides also. Replacement townies are a huge liability for the mafia-- speedbump being alive should be very suspicious + everything else added on. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
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Speedbump
New Zealand338 Posts
First of all, Vote No Lynch. I honestly had massive suspicions of Fulla, but I lost internet access half-way through making a case on him. I agree that the safest course of action that town has is to go with a No Lynch. It means that town can play much more cautiously and still win. My role is Senior. At the risk of OMGUS, I think that this post from calgar is over-assumptive. On July 26 2012 03:54 calgar wrote: My play has definitely been reckless. I’ve been aggressive and posted reads and made mistakes. That’s been the same all game long. I was grasping at straws when I tried to read in hopeless, kind of like with my attempted meta-analysis of iamperfection. Here’s my new case. I’ve rethought what I think about hopeless and him calling out that there was no doctor. Jingle knew there might not be a doctor but he tried to stay alive by ‘requesting’ it nevertheless. Hopeless points out that there probably isn’t one. Jingle is mad because hopeless has just killed whatever small chance jingle had of living to the next day. I think mafia wouldn’t have wanted jingle to be warned so explicitly. Maybe he still had some hope left and might not have done anything productive at night. I’ll stop here because it descends into even more WIFOM but I think hopeless is town because of this. Now, town should 100% no lynch. Whoever mafia hits, even Harry who we have strong feelings about, the field will be narrower and there is one less person to hide behind. Town will have a good chance at getting mafia lynched and that will bring it to 3-1, still very winnable. Mafia wants to lynch today and for people to get overzealous and go for their reads prematurely. Town needs to play logically here. Logic says no lynch is the best call statistically. My case now is against our replacement. Whatever you think about me, I think there is a better case for him. I think the burden is on the replacer to clear their name with aggressive posting and reads. I think if he were town he would have tried much harder to do so. Wouldn’t you if you had replaced in? This isn’t someone like tube who signed up and then gave up. He signed up as a replacement and then accepted it. I think he should care more considering he joined recently. He should have been posting much more, except for the fact that he hasn’t needed to since lurking would have almost won with people lynching on MYLO. He left us dangling with a promise to return. iamperfection is on the right track for calling him out. It’s interesting that mafia didn’t kill harry OR Speedbump-- not shooting Harry was a gamble, since he’s confirmed townie, to try and get a mislynch. Speedbump, though, as a replacement, traditionally gets the ‘benefit of the doubt’ and wouldn’t be lynched at LYLO. Mafia has definitely thought of this! viscera would have thought of it, and they are probably aware of it from guides also. Replacement townies are a huge liability for the mafia-- speedbump being alive should be very suspicious + everything else added on. Bolded the logical flaw I see in your post. It's much easier to make assumptions about how replacements play, instead of actually playing the game. To answer your flawed analysis there; unless the player pre-replacement plays exceptionally poorly, I don't think that the replacement has any onus of burden to defend himself overzealously, like you're implying. In fact, overzealous play causes more problems for town, with potential mislynches. But then, when one is reckless and grasping at straws the whole game, it would be easier to make more brash and reckless assumptions to mislynch and win. Have you got anything substantial to go on, or is this all purely WIFOM? FoS calgar | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 25 2012 21:04 calgar wrote: Would you clarify this? The vote would just pile up until the end of the 48 hour period right, giving them time to switch away? Yes you are right. I stand corrected. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 26 2012 09:55 Speedbump wrote: Bolded the logical flaw I see in your post. It's much easier to make assumptions about how replacements play, instead of actually playing the game. To answer your flawed analysis there; unless the player pre-replacement plays exceptionally poorly, I don't think that the replacement has any onus of burden to defend himself overzealously, like you're implying. In fact, overzealous play causes more problems for town, with potential mislynches. But then, when one is reckless and grasping at straws the whole game, it would be easier to make more brash and reckless assumptions to mislynch and win. Have you got anything substantial to go on, or is this all purely WIFOM? FoS calgar Calgar's suspicions are pretty reasonable, and its inexcusable for a player to not post for 48 hours when the town's at MYLO. You claim your internet cut out, but you were pretty quick to defend yourself when people started calling you out. You also spend more time decrying Calgar's "flawed analysis" than actually analyzing his case. Hell, I haven't seen you analyze well... anything since you joined. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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