EPTOn July 24 2012 10:24 YourHarry wrote:
Mod could you update the player list on page 1? Thanks!
Mod could you update the player list on page 1? Thanks!
Done!
Newbie Mini Mafia XXI - Page 55
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
On July 24 2012 09:44 ghost_403 wrote: @Town: Pay close attention to people who are trying to (a) convince you they are somehow "confirmed town" and (b) make long posts without contributing. These are what the scum try to spend their time doing. A good town player will spend their time trying to find scum. Scum will try to spend their time convincing you that they're spending their time trying to find scum. Learn the difference and punish people who do the latter. With this idea in mind, I looked at who is positioning to look best after a mislynch. Positioning for after the mislynch will let them remind us how they are somehow “confirmed town”. They got their read right, so must be on our side. Since tube flipped town, mafia will try to position well for the mislynch. So I’m thinking – who of the 7 of us left voted and positioned to look best after the result? Only one person made any effort to justify their standing after the lynch. Yes, you hopeless. On July 23 2012 06:35 Hopeless1der wrote: Think about this quote very carefully. What is he actually saying here? I’ve put in numbers and translated this post.I was reading him as town, and you as scum. Even after reading your case I thought so, as I feel you're pressed into a corner and have nothing else to push for except for tube's lynch. Having read his post, the fact that he doesn't seem to take this very seriously is very suspicious and drives me to want to vote for him instead of you. I'm not ready to swap my vote over completely, but I am prepared to ##Unvote This is looking like its going to be "too easy" to get tube voted. I'm pretty much the only one who ever gave him a town read to begin with.1 Seeing his posting regress to his initial garbage version makes we want to get rid of him as he was thoroughly berated for his style of posting and doesnt seem to give a damn. However, that in itself doesn't seem that scummy to me because it shows he's distinctly NOT trying, which sucks for town but doesn't prove his affiliation to me. I don't want to be lynching someone for being bad-town on D3.2 If he doesn't provide anything useful my hands are probably going to be tied as perfection has at least tried to make himself useful to town. Tube has not.3 1-I think he’ll flip town. I’m the only one that thinks he’s town. 2-Here’s why you guys suspect him; here’s why I don’t. 3-I’m going to vote for him anyways. Why is he reminding us that he is the only one who thinks he's town, when he's voting for him anyways? He gives reasoning why his opinion has decayed over time but neverthless he's trying to assert that he thinks tube is town. This is irrelevant because he is going to be killed anyways. The only thing your read could effect is our idea of you as a player afterwards. Another point in the filter that demonstrates the same concept. While I was hoping that obvious was mafia, hopeless is trying to actively assert his innocence. I don’t think he’s in a necessarily suspicious position. He made his vote early and stuck on it and his vote wouldn’t have mattered. If he were town, he could have said something like “I had my read and I stuck to my guns… it was decided without me either way. I’m trying to pressure him to talk” I don’t think this would have been suspicious – he would be justified here in my opinion. What irks me is the fact that he brings it up. He is actively worried about what others are thinking of him, moreso than actually finding mafia. I think he is trying to confirm himself town, rather than actually hunt. If it wasn’t suspicious, then why is he trying to make himself even less suspicious when he wasn’t in the first place? On July 18 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote: So, am I going to get chewed out for not changing my vote? If I do, its a last minute bandwagon, and if I don't its because I Obviously (teehee) "knew" he was town. Unless someone unvotes Obvious.660, there is no way to alter the vote at this point because he got to 6 votes first. On July 18 2012 07:51 Hopeless1der wrote: If he flips scum, I still look bad because I've said he looked scummy, but didn't put my vote on him. I made that post to demonstrate the fact that I think I'm screwed no matter what I do at this point. On July 18 2012 07:58 Hopeless1der wrote: I'm preemptively pointing out the fact that I'm going to look scummy regardless of what I do, before someone can turn it into a case and run with it. Perhaps I should have just stayed quiet, but I've already said I'd be around at the deadline and I can see this turning out poorly for me. I'm trying to make my situation as transparent as possible to prevent people from considering I'm scum because of my voting pattern. He’s going to try and talk and squirm his way out but the actions can’t be taken back. Is his attitude focused on hunting or is it focused on asserting his innocence? I think it’s the latter. Why have we considered him town until now? One of the reasons I don’t agree with is that he (stupidly, if town) reminded us that there is no medic. I think that this move is bad for both town and mafia, though, and therefore not evidence of town. | ||
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iamperfection
United States9640 Posts
On July 22 2012 14:31 iamperfection wrote: time= 1 am condition= intoxicated casino winnings= $300 Capitalization randomizer= operaTiOnal Spell cehk = off Grammer check= unlikely to not be on log entry Return from casino in great mood wons lots of money hit straight flush in 3 card poker. Return to accusations against the perfect one.. NoT cool. Hoever condition allows me to see things more clearly i see the end game i see the light i see what i have been looking. For. Son of a bitch You son of a bitch @ calgar This was the response On July 23 2012 06:35 Hopeless1der wrote: @Perfection, there are a couple things you've brought up. 1 is my "trap" set for calgar. I originally suspected you two of bussing from the start, especially after calgar neglected to really push for your lynch day1. Now ive been trying to wrap my had around this answer. So he admidts that there is a trap for both me and calgar but ive been thinking what kind of town player would set a trap? As hopeless has so greately reminded the town that there is likely no dt he has no extra information. There is no reason for regular town player to set traps since really almost always we are just making educated guesses.Why put your fellow town players at risk when for making a misread? Plus he was somewhat liberal with the truth in the second part of the statement. calgar has basically tried to get me killed at every point in the game he really hasent pushed of at all untill now. My vote will go for hopeless when we start. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 24 2012 11:13 Hopeless1der wrote: What proof is there that there is a detective? There isn't one. I sort of assume there would be either vig or detective though, since it seems like we don't have medic. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I am pretty sure there are 2 scums left, and 5 townies. So after scums NK, there would be 2 scums and 4 townies, which is LYLO in the absence of medic. So here, I would encourage the vigilante, if there is one, to target someone he thinks is scum. Even in the case that he's wrong, there would be 2 scums and 3 townies in the beginning of Day 3, so we are still LYLO with better chance to correctly pick the scum. But if vigilante gets one of the scums, we will be so much better off. So this way, we get two chances to find the scum rather than one. And either way, we should think about start claiming beginning of tomorrow. | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
On July 24 2012 15:42 YourHarry wrote: No point, nothing to gain. Everyone will claim VT regardless.And either way, we should think about start claiming beginning of tomorrow. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 25 2012 01:56 calgar wrote: No point, nothing to gain. Everyone will claim VT regardless. Are you trying to role hunt? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Response to Calgar's Case On July 24 2012 12:12 calgar wrote: OK guys – here goes. I’ve looked through lots of filters and gotten nowhere. I referred back to XIX for inspiration and I went back through using this quote offered as advice at the end. With this idea in mind, I looked at who is positioning to look best after a mislynch. Positioning for after the mislynch will let them remind us how they are somehow “confirmed town”. They got their read right, so must be on our side. Since tube flipped town, mafia will try to position well for the mislynch. So I’m thinking – who of the 7 of us left voted and positioned to look best after the result? Only one person made any effort to justify their standing after the lynch. Yes, you hopeless. Not a chance. My entire stance since Jingle has died is that the only confirmed townie is YourHarry. Calgar, YOU were the one who spewed out 'confirmed townie'+ Show Spoiler + On July 22 2012 08:23 calgar wrote: Alright townies, I’ll call it like I see it. Sorry to see you go jingle, we'll bag the rest for ya. @confirmed townies – I consider everyone besides iamperfection, tube, fulla, and speed to be more or less ‘confirmed’ as town. This is in varying degrees, of course, considering the fact that we're going on guesses based on our reasoning. I feel reasonably confident that there is enough info to make solid assumptions here in most of the cases. @direction – It’s difficult to say where to go now because the remaining players are a mix of inactivity and suspicious activity which is helping the mafia hide. I think all four of them have been generally inactive, some moreso than others. I assessed what tiny bit of mufaa’s old filter was there and the vague feel I got based off of it was town. Going off of what little that is, I’m inclined to put him/speedbump on hold and go towards the other three for now. IGMEOY iamperfection, tube, fulla I'll kick things off with this vote since it seems to be where hopeless and hapa are leaning towards also. ##Vote iamperfection Further to ghost's quote, where are the LONG posts where I don't contribute anything? I think I've done a decent job of providing my reads and building cases when called upon. Responses to the quote below are italicized: On July 24 2012 12:12 calgar wrote: Think about this quote very carefully. What is he actually saying here? I’ve put in numbers and translated this post. 1-I think he’ll flip town. I’m the only one that thinks he’s town. 1a - I THOUGHT he'd flip town. I WAS the only one who THOUGHT he WAS town. Reads change. If that's scummy, then why aren't you still pushing iamperfection over me? 2-Here’s why you guys suspect him; here’s why I don’t. 2a- Here's why I'm still skeptical about voting for him, but I will acknowledge that he is behaving in a suspicious manner 3-I’m going to vote for him anyways. 3a- If he makes no effort to defend himself or contribute anything to town (Which he didn't and I voted for him as a result) Why is he reminding us that he is the only one who thinks he's town, when he's voting for him anyways? He gives reasoning why his opinion has decayed over time but neverthless he's trying to assert that he thinks tube is town. This is irrelevant because he is going to be killed anyways. The only thing your read could effect is our idea of you as a player afterwards. I was trying to explain WHY I changed my read so that THIS EXACT SITUATION could be avoided. Learn to understand the use of tenses to denote past, present and future thoughts or ideas. Everyone else thought tube was scum. I saw evidence that compelled me to agree and I adjusted my read accordingly. I explained my reasoning and followed through with my opinion as it changed. On July 24 2012 12:12 calgar wrote: Another point in the filter that demonstrates the same concept. While I was hoping that obvious was mafia, hopeless is trying to actively assert his innocence. I don’t think he’s in a necessarily suspicious position. He made his vote early and stuck on it and his vote wouldn’t have mattered. If he were town, he could have said something like “I had my read and I stuck to my guns… it was decided without me either way. I’m trying to pressure him to talk” I don’t think this would have been suspicious – he would be justified here in my opinion. What irks me is the fact that he brings it up. He is actively worried about what others are thinking of him, moreso than actually finding mafia. I think he is trying to confirm himself town, rather than actually hunt. If it wasn’t suspicious, then why is he trying to make himself even less suspicious when he wasn’t in the first place? He’s going to try and talk and squirm his way out but the actions can’t be taken back. Is his attitude focused on hunting or is it focused on asserting his innocence? I think it’s the latter. Why have we considered him town until now? One of the reasons I don’t agree with is that he (stupidly, if town) reminded us that there is no medic. I think that this move is bad for both town and mafia, though, and therefore not evidence of town. @Bolded: Actively tried to assert innocence AFTER I determined that I'd probably look scummy later. I WANT people to see the things I've done so that I get called out on it and get the opportunity to explain myself. The more you try to evoke a response from me, the more activity you get from me. The harder I get tunnelled, the more info to hunt scum is revealed after I die on the players who attacked me. I DON'T want to hide my actions. I explained what I saw and why I don't think my vote should be considered scummy the way it ended up at the end of Day 1. This is of course for the purpose of making myself 'look innocent' because the alternative is to let someone else bring it up and I look like I'm panicking to defend myself for my "suspicious vote." At the end of Day 2, we pestered Fulla and Tube for NOT explaining their actions. Now you're pestering me because I DID explain my vote. I'm not going to try to "squirm my way out". I explained myself, you read my explanation and you found it scummy. Pretty cut and dry. If other people agree or disagree, please let me know if you think I need to explain myself further. Overall, I'd like to believe my attitude has been on hunting scum. In this particular instance, it was 20 minutes to deadline with what looked like a hammered target. Was my attitude focused on my innocence right then and there? Yes. Did my attitude remain that way? I leave this question for the rest of the town to answer. Read my filter and let me know if you think I haven't been contributing my fair share towards scumhunting. Presumably, calgar and iamperfection are hurting over my 'trap' laid for them and I have limited faith in their propensity to change their read on me. I'm counting on YourHarry, Speedbump and Hapa to weigh in and let me know of anything else they think I should address. Fulla's welcome to join in as well, if he'll actually read the defense I posted on his case first. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 25 2012 01:56 calgar wrote: No point, nothing to gain. Everyone will claim VT regardless. If there is any blue role that can semi-confirm themselves that's a huge gain for town. If, in the event that there are no other blues, then you are correct. In which case we're right back to where we started. WHAT IS THERE TO LOSE BY CLAIMING? | ||
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calgar
United States1277 Posts
By saying people shouldn't claim? Don't follow you here. If someone wants to claim then they will if they think its the right time, that's their choice to make. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I had Calgar as a very pro-town read earlier in the game (and came to his defense on D2), but I’ve found some of his actions over the past few days very suspicious. Calgar’s Response to drwiggl3s’ Scumslip After JingleHell posts his case against drwiggl3s and votes him, Calgar posts this: On July 21 2012 04:38 calgar wrote: I'll agree with you that drwiggles is a good lynch right now. Is he better than harry though? I'm planning to move my vote away from iamperfection - I may have come up with a solution to him, I'll post more on that in a little. Harry under fire has given us good reads on how several people have reacted. He keeps his options open, while maintaining his suspicions against YourHarry. He only votes drwiggl3s after three more townies INSTANTLY vote drwiggl3s after reading his exchange with Jingle. By then, drwiggl3s is firmly in the vote lead. Given how sudden the counter-bandwagon was on drwiggl3s (since YourHarry was basically set to mislynch D2), this is consistent with a mafia in disarray and not sure what to do after the drwiggl3s scumslip. After drwiggl3s flips red, Calgar posts an analysis of drwiggl3s filter – a “summary post.” http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=48#960 Calgar “tunneling” suspicion on multiple players Calgar has been fingerpointing several players throughout the game. Early in the game, he posts suspicion against three players: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=31#610 Then immediately after the drwiggl3s lynch, Calgar posts: On July 22 2012 08:23 calgar wrote: Alright townies, I’ll call it like I see it. Sorry to see you go jingle, we'll bag the rest for ya. @confirmed townies – I consider everyone besides iamperfection, tube, fulla, and speed to be more or less ‘confirmed’ as town. This is in varying degrees, of course, considering the fact that we're going on guesses based on our reasoning. I feel reasonably confident that there is enough info to make solid assumptions here in most of the cases. @direction – It’s difficult to say where to go now because the remaining players are a mix of inactivity and suspicious activity which is helping the mafia hide. I think all four of them have been generally inactive, some moreso than others. I assessed what tiny bit of mufaa’s old filter was there and the vague feel I got based off of it was town. Going off of what little that is, I’m inclined to put him/speedbump on hold and go towards the other three for now. IGMEOY iamperfection, tube, fulla I'll kick things off with this vote since it seems to be where hopeless and hapa are leaning towards also. ##Vote iamperfection He then posts what I consider a really bad meta case against iamperfection. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=52#1022 After my response… http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=52#1029 …he puts more suspicion on iamperfection: On July 23 2012 01:09 calgar wrote: Maybe you're right. The point that convinced me the most was that he seemed like a better player last game - let me know what you think about that. After which he gives up his case without a word and votes Tube, right after iamperfection votes for Tube: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=53#1045 | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
There's a huge difference between trying to make oneself less suspicious and drawing attention to one's potentially suspicious actions. Hopeless does the latter in the posts mentioned in Calgar's case: On July 18 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote: So, am I going to get chewed out for not changing my vote? If I do, its a last minute bandwagon, and if I don't its because I Obviously (teehee) "knew" he was town. Unless someone unvotes Obvious.660, there is no way to alter the vote at this point because he got to 6 votes first. Points suspicion to his own vote - why would he do that as Mafia? On July 18 2012 07:51 Hopeless1der wrote: If he flips scum, I still look bad because I've said he looked scummy, but didn't put my vote on him. I made that post to demonstrate the fact that I think I'm screwed no matter what I do at this point. Points suspicion to himself again... On July 18 2012 07:58 Hopeless1der wrote: I'm preemptively pointing out the fact that I'm going to look scummy regardless of what I do, before someone can turn it into a case and run with it. Perhaps I should have just stayed quiet, but I've already said I'd be around at the deadline and I can see this turning out poorly for me. I'm trying to make my situation as transparent as possible to prevent people from considering I'm scum because of my voting pattern. Again, pointing suspicion at himself. He doesn't make excuses for his actions at all. Hopeless has already commented on the quote about him "positioning" after the Tube lynch, and I think he gives a satisfactory explanation - Calgar reads into his post the wrong way | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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