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On July 27 2012 05:28 calgar wrote:
You still haven’t posted any analysis or reads besides your OMGUS. Any of that coming anytime? Why don't you post some of you reads?
Calgar, are we reading the same posts here? Speedbump posted some pretty damning evidence against you, and you brush it off as "OMGUS." I mean look at this:
On July 26 2012 14:09 Speedbump wrote:Day 1, you spend all your time flip-flopping your vote between iamperfection who you had constantly railed and backflipped to the whole day and YourHarry. (who you only decided to vote for after Hapahauli made his case) This was done in a manner of a person who doesn't care which person is lynched, which is heavily anti-town. Day 2, more time spent flip-flopping between YourHarry and imperfection. This time, you spend a slight amount of time on Fulla's inactivity, while still heavily railing YourHarry and iamperfection. Afterwards, you continue your tunneling of iamperfection. You tthen decided to sheep drwiggl3s, while still tunneling YourHarry, only voting for drwiggl3s once he had 4 votes on him.Day 3, yet more time spent tunneling iamperfection, only deciding to follow iamperfection in voting tube, after Hapahauli and Hopeless1der had already weighed in their suspicions of tube. This sudden flip-flop on your aggression towards iamperfection looks very suspicious, considering a mislynch in that scenario leads to MYLO the next day.
That's some pretty serious stuff here that warrants a serious response.
Also, I found this quote amusing:
On July 26 2012 03:54 calgar wrote:
My play has definitely been reckless. I’ve been aggressive and posted reads and made mistakes. That’s been the same all game long. I was grasping at straws when I tried to read in hopeless, kind of like with my attempted meta-analysis of iamperfection. Here’s my new case.
I haven't seen you take one controversial issue all game. Speedbump does a great job of pointing this out - you've piggybacked off other people's suspicions/cases (often mine) for the last few days. Furthermore, the only consistent case you've made (against iamperfection) you've wildly flip-flopped attitudes on.
I suggest you start defending yourself.
##Vote Calgar
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(its for dramatic effect)
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Calgar, all I ask is for you to defend yourself. There is plenty to suggest mafia-motive in your voting pattern, and time and time again you refuse to directly address the evidence against you.
##Vote Calgar
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On July 28 2012 11:12 calgar wrote: Does Harry's read as town not mean anything to you?
Can you explain Harry's read to me? I honestly have no idea why that makes you town, nor do I even understand it.
Humor me - what if I were town? Certainly mafia would leave me alive, right? I'm an automatic mislynch because of all the suspicion on me. Are you really sure there are no blues left? I think there's one more. Look at past games - I doubt there have ever been only two. This is all WIFOM, but if no one had a strong read on me, why would I go posting my bullshit cases on several people? I think this shows the motive of desperate townie more than mafia.
...or you're alive because you're mafia. Why else would you ignore the cases against you, or dismiss Speedbump's post as "OMGUS" when it had some pretty damning content.
Oh, and there can be two blues in a game:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856
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Calgar, I'm currently reading through your defense and will post a response later tonight. But I HAD to comment on this right away:
On July 29 2012 04:57 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 04:52 iamperfection wrote:
@calgar
just to be clear
Who do you think the second scum member is? Is it still hopeless in your eyes? Well, I don't really know, but if I had to guess I'd say speedbump + hapa.
Congratulations Calgar, you now have standing suspicions against every player in this game.
But seriously... you're saying you bandwagonned on all of my suspicions and cases since Day 1 because you thought I was mafia?!?!
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On Calgar’s Defense
Hey town!
I’d like to post a formal response on Calgar’s defense to accusations against him. Calgar uses misleading evidence in his defense, and furthermore, uses this misleading evidence to cast suspicion on other people. This all but confirms to me that he is a desperate mafia.
(For Reference: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=59#1171)
The bulk of Calgar’s defense is comprised of the following points:
1) All the people who had town reads on him are dead
2) Speedbump is a better lynch
3) YourHarry’s “read”
4) Defending his actions
On the first two points, Calgar uses misleading/false evidence to make his defense. On sections 3 and 4, I find Calgar’s defense insufficient, and there are other instances of misleading evidence as well.
Defense #1 (Misleading): ”All the people who had town reads on Calgar are dead”
Obvious.660 read me as town. So did jingle. Apparently YourHarry did too. You’re voting against all of their reads, as confirmed town. Doesn’t sound smart to me.
On July 29 2012 03:27 calgar wrote:
--SNIP—
YourHarry got his read right on me. So did jingle, so did obvious. One last mislynch and it’s game over. Am I really the best lynch?
On July 29 2012 08:35 calgar wrote:
--SNIP--
Everyone who thought I was town was shot. Is that not a little bit weird? Is mafia not trying to aim a mislynch in a certain direction? Seems like it would be really easy to do so.
Calgar implies that YourHarry, Jingle, and Obvious were killed because they suspected him of being town. This is false and inconsistent on several levels.
Firstly, Obvious was lynched, and NOT night-killed by mafia. Calgar suggests that mafia got Obvious lynched (via bandwagonned), then promptly casts suspicion on Speedbump and myself… who didn’t vote for Obvious.660 Day 1!!! This is completely inconsistent, and Calgar uses false statements to cast suspicions on multiple player.
Secondly, Calgar implies that Jingle and YourHarry were lynched because mafia wanted a mislynch. This is absurd, considering that YourHarry was a confirmed townie and Jingle breadcrumbed Jailkeeper. Again, misleading evidence.
Defense #2 (Misleading): ”Speedbump is a better lynch”
Calgar posts the following against Speedbump in his defense:
I see mafia motive behind speedbumps' lack of posting. He should have been more active since he agreed to replace in. He didn't need to be, though, because the town was headed to mislynch with fingers pointing the wrong direction. He steps in soon after getting attacked, but only enough to divert attention. Where are his reads? Why isn't he posting any analysis? He doesn't need to be. I was the easiest target for him to focus on because of my recent accusation against hopeless, so he pointed the finger back to me. Well, it's worked so far so tip of the hat to him.
Calgar accuses Speedbump of not posting any analysis, yet he responds to that very analysis in the very same post! (see the section titled: “what it boils down to”). Speedbump posts analysis of Calgar’s voting/suspicion history http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=58#1146］HERE[/url], yet Calgar pretends it has never existed for the purposes of his accusation. Calgar simply sticks to his original case against Speedbump, tunneling accusations with outdated rationale.
Calgar also does exactly what he accuses Speedbump of doing (re: attacking the easiest target). Calgar attacks Speedbump for lurking (after iamperfection first points out his lurkiness mind you), and as previously stated, tunnels him with outdated case (re: not posting analysis).
Defense #3 (Insufficient): “YourHarry’s ‘read’”
Calgar posts this on YourHarry’s “read”:
I think it does show me as town, though. At this point jingle is essentially ‘confirmed town’ and had most of the towns support. When I was asked if I were roleblocked, the easiest answer would have been to say yes. By saying I didn’t, I directly contradicted everything jingle had said and claimed. He claimed jailor, he claimed he jailed me, according to the rules, I should have been notified. Why would I challenge him like that if I were mafia? I posted honestly, instead, contradicting him. The mod came in and conveniently explained everything so that jingle was once again essentially confirmed, and me essentially confirmed as having no active role due to the lack of notification. I couldn’t have known that the mod was going to post the explanation though. As far as I was concerned, it could have turned into a huge “me vs. jingle who is lying about the roleblock” debate. I had less town cred so I would have lost that, guaranteed.
From what I understand, the YourHarry read comes down to the moderator somehow confirming Calgar being town through a mod message. I haven’t found anything to suggest this. The mod confirms that Calgar doesn’t have a role, which means he’s either town or role-less mafia. I’m obviously leaning towards the latter.
Calgar considers his denial of him getting roleblocked to confirm him as town. This is ridiculous – if he said he received the PM, then the mod clarified the roleblock, he would have to fake a blue role without having breadcrumbed one earlier in the game. It would be easy to catch him in this lie in the late game.
Defense #4 (Insufficient/Misleading): “Defense of his Actions”
This is an assortment of other parts of his defense that I find highly suspect:
First, his defense of his stance on iamperfection is misleading:
I’ve already explained my thoughts on iamperfection. If he flips mafia then I guess I’m the fool for falling for his antics. I’ve seen the other people playing poorly this game flip town. I changed my mind before I had to see him flip this time. Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 04:54 calgar wrote:
I also want to propose a temporary solution to iamperfection. I may have been reading his actions on the wrong side of the coin. I’ve said in my previous posts that it boiled down to whether he was mafia or confused townie. At the time we didn’t have anything better to go off of so I considered it to be our best vote in order to maximize the % of killing mafia. What he’s said recently in his vote on YourHarry made me change my mind. His defense of YourHarry shows his reluctance to put the vote there, so he shouldn’t have any trouble changing to match with jingle again. Well, this didn’t work very well considering jingle died.
The selection where Calgar quotes himself is from directly before the drwiggl3s lynch. He treats it as if that was his final stance on iamperfection and that it was the end of his suspicions. This is a lie
Later in the game, he resumes his suspicions on iamperfection with this bad meta case (as I pointed out in my original suspicions of Calgar)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=52#1022
He misrepresents his quote as his final attitude on iamperfection and conveniently ignores his bad meta case.
Regarding “the breadcrumb revisited”, Calgar says that his response-breadcrumb to JingleHell proves his innocence, because JingleHell should have died that night if Calgar was scum. I find this insufficient and “WIFOMy,” in light of all the evidence against Calgar’s play suggesting the exact opposite.
tl;dr: Calgar uses misleading evidence in his defense, and uses this misleading evidence to cast suspicion on other players.
Calgar is Mafia
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On July 29 2012 10:31 calgar wrote:
You've posted twice in 60 hours - sleep has nothing to do with this. What does a different timezone have to do with that kind of inactivity? Mafia is literally lurking to victory here. A real townie would be making reads and trying to be productive. Speedbump's filter (or absence in this case) should speak for itself.
I think a lot of the case for poor voting can be made for hopeless and iamperfection. Come on guys, switch your votes! They're hoping you'll go along with the case. Try and rethink it objectively based on the facts.
"Come on guys, switch your votes! Don't listen to all the evidence against me! Trust me!"
lol.
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...and if there's anything I missed, let me know and I'll address it.
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GG folks! Things were shaping up to be very one-sided until the drwiggl3s lynch, which made the last few days really interesting on both ends - had a lot of fun with the game on the red side of things.
On July 30 2012 08:30 JingleHell wrote:
So, would a scum mind explaining the NKs that weren't me?
Augh, the NK's were terrriiiibad in hindsight. Kinda got lucky not shooting Calgar though. Here's the rundown:
Night 1: - I liked the general direction of the town D1 (from a scum perspective) and the EvulRabbitz NK was a way to get a "clean kill," keeping the town pointing suspicions at each other. Evul was also being really really quiet, and we thought he could be the medic or something. This, in hindsight, was stupid considering his DT meta in Newbie XX. We also debated killing Fulla (possible bluesnipe/clean kill) and Calgar (town analyst)
Night 2: Killed Jingle (duh) on the basis that Medic/Jailer/3rd blue seemed too OP a possible blue setup. Fun fact: none of us spotted Jingle's breadcrumb.
Night 3: Killed Fulla as a bluesnipe. In retrospect, this was a terrible decision, and we should have shot YourHarry without question.
Night 4: YourHarry for being a confirmed townie.
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I think Release lived on in spirit through YourHarry this game... I have no idea what YH was thinking half the time.
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Just wanted to comment on Calgar's defense against my "cases:"
Reference: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=59#1171
For starters, I liked Calgar's defensive style - bolded points w/ spoiler tags, I'mma goin to steal that from him.
When defending himself against my case, Calgar had some really really good stuff for his defense that unfortunately got buried in the rest of his post. His point, "revisiting the breadcrumb" was incredibly strong, and spamming it throughout the thread may well have saved him from getting lynched. IMO it practically confirmed him as town, and I was terrified of addressing it directly (hence me burying it at the end of my "formal response" to his defense, dismissing it as "WIFOM").
Furthermore, he didn't push for Speedbump's lynch nearly hard enough. The bulk of Calgar's plea to lynch Speedbump was buried in a longer 4-paragraph post (HERE). When dealing with less-vocal townies (Hopeless and iamperfection), it may be more effective to emphasize your suspicions (bold "speedbump is scummy", "why isn't he dead as replacement", etc) - tell people how to think rather than trust them to read and consider your posts.
On July 30 2012 09:56 Blazinghand wrote:
...
Also, iamperfection should have known calgar was town since he had a town read on hopeless-- if calgar is scum, even, one of hapa/speed had to be scum, and for them to bus so thoroughly made little sense.
Can you explain this? Thanks!
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On July 30 2012 10:38 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 10:24 Hapahauli wrote:Furthermore, he didn't push for Speedbump's lynch nearly hard enough. The bulk of Calgar's plea to lynch Speedbump was buried in a longer 4-paragraph post ( HERE). When dealing with less-vocal townies (Hopeless and iamperfection), it may be more effective to emphasize your suspicions (bold "speedbump is scummy", "why isn't he dead as replacement", etc) - tell people how to think rather than trust them to read and consider your posts. Eh, I dunno. I don't think I could have overcome confirmation bias... they weren't contemplating any other possibility. Anything I said would have been (and was) twisted immediately and since they hadn't figured it out by then I don't think anything I could have said would have mattered.
Well that's what I mean - you trust the town's analyitical skills too much. By the time you start being aggressive, the town is already convinced of your guilt. For example, what if you responed to my original accusation like this:
"It doesn't make sense for me to be scum considering my reverse-breadcrumb at JingleHell. Scum Calgar would have NK'd him on the spot. There would be no reason for me to leave him alive, unless I somehow forsaw these events a week ago.
If someone can prove to me how this doesn't confirm me as town, I'll respond to the accusations against me."
IMO, you'd have a pretty good chance of convincing Hopeless and iamperfection of your innocence.
To me the final giveaway was when you made the fake 'FoS' and then backed off and came at me with the huge 'case'.
Yeah, at that point, I figured I could close out the game regardless of your suspicions.
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Yeah... I didn't pick up on the whole "mod apologizing" thing until you pointed it out =P
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If you fakeclaimed (or from my in-game perspective, actually claimed), I was going to accuse you of lying unless you breadcrumbed your role and all your reads. Since you didn't breadcrumb, you would have looked really bad given that you reverse-breadcrumbed JK to Jingle.
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On July 30 2012 13:34 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 13:30 Blazinghand wrote:
No problem dude! Only Calgar and I spotted it-- most people didn't till it was pointed out to them.
And you told me it was too obvious. Which is when I started coming up with tons of contingency plans for it that had NOTHING to do with the original intent. Never show indecisiveness. Even if you backtrack all over yourself, do it aggressively. It makes you townie. Like Hapa. He stayed assertive and stayed below people's most scummy spot.
What was the original plan behind your breadcrumb? I didn't know what to think when you mentioned you were trying to get me NK'd xD
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On July 30 2012 23:10 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 22:14 Hapahauli wrote:On July 30 2012 13:34 JingleHell wrote:On July 30 2012 13:30 Blazinghand wrote:
No problem dude! Only Calgar and I spotted it-- most people didn't till it was pointed out to them.
And you told me it was too obvious. Which is when I started coming up with tons of contingency plans for it that had NOTHING to do with the original intent. Never show indecisiveness. Even if you backtrack all over yourself, do it aggressively. It makes you townie. Like Hapa. He stayed assertive and stayed below people's most scummy spot. What was the original plan behind your breadcrumb? I didn't know what to think when you mentioned you were trying to get me NK'd xD The original plan was to RB Calgar, who I thought was shady. The notion of "trying" to get you NKed to see if scum were after you came when I was told it was blatantly obvious by BallsinHand. Well, if it's that obvious, how can I use that? You got to admit, from a contingency plan point of view, it was a good use. Or could have been, had it been actually noticed.
I thought your read (regarding me being not dead) was pretty good, and you might have gotten on the right track had you not stuck to the Me + Calgar scumteam theory. Wasn't too much a fan of the "obviousness" of the breadcrumb though - Jailer's a pretty powerful townie role, and is pretty bad to get a blue role like that shot N2.
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On July 31 2012 10:02 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 07:35 JingleHell wrote:On July 31 2012 07:20 Hapahauli wrote:On July 30 2012 23:10 JingleHell wrote:On July 30 2012 22:14 Hapahauli wrote:On July 30 2012 13:34 JingleHell wrote:On July 30 2012 13:30 Blazinghand wrote:
No problem dude! Only Calgar and I spotted it-- most people didn't till it was pointed out to them.
And you told me it was too obvious. Which is when I started coming up with tons of contingency plans for it that had NOTHING to do with the original intent. Never show indecisiveness. Even if you backtrack all over yourself, do it aggressively. It makes you townie. Like Hapa. He stayed assertive and stayed below people's most scummy spot. What was the original plan behind your breadcrumb? I didn't know what to think when you mentioned you were trying to get me NK'd xD The original plan was to RB Calgar, who I thought was shady. The notion of "trying" to get you NKed to see if scum were after you came when I was told it was blatantly obvious by BallsinHand. Well, if it's that obvious, how can I use that? You got to admit, from a contingency plan point of view, it was a good use. Or could have been, had it been actually noticed. I thought your read (regarding me being not dead) was pretty good, and you might have gotten on the right track had you not stuck to the Me + Calgar scumteam theory. Wasn't too much a fan of the "obviousness" of the breadcrumb though - Jailer's a pretty powerful townie role, and is pretty bad to get a blue role like that shot N2. Well, yes, like I said, I wasn't expecting people to notice it readily since I was already a prolific poster. Apparently that worked better than BH thought, but since Calgar brought it up, I decided to play that hand instead. I just overdid it a bit, instead of seeing the obvious part that I did later, where only one of you could possibly be scum, or I'd just have turned into a mislynch, since any two of the three of us could have controlled town opinion at that point in the game. It wasn't until the Wiggles vote that I realized that, though, since both of you being scum might not have been able to turn it into a mislynch on me safely, but you certainly could have sustained the votes on YH into a mislynch and brushed it off easily for a cakewalk D3 mislynch on me. You trying to get both of them convinced me that one of them was definitely scum. I really thought it was calgar and iamperfection. @Hapa, did you really have a train to catch day1?
I regretted typing it immediately after I sent it, but it was 100% truth - I was travelling in and out of the city for the past week
EDIT: And I promise this is not covering my bases for future game meta or anything =P
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On that subject BH, even though I was telling the truth, there was still mafia-motive behind me posting that. I had posted earlier that I would try and lobby against the Obvious.660 lynch, and given my meta in Newbie XX of doing just that with Lazermonkey D1, I wanted to cover my bases.
Non-suspicious player trying to look less suspicious = mafia motive
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On July 31 2012 10:51 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 10:42 Blazinghand wrote:
Regardless, like most things in Mafia, Its not what's true that matters, its who you can convince and what you can prove. Whether or not he was really busy is literally irrelevant IMO. True story. The mafia know who's who. Everyone else only knows about themselves and flips. Best solution, never trust anybody. Never make a soft case. Even if a case is weak, make a hard sale. People seemed to think I was overly relentless early, that's actually just because if you back off from a position without a good reason, it's scummy as all hell. Hapa, can you honestly tell me you wouldn't have had me mislynched in five minutes if I'd been similarly vocal, but with soft pressure instead of the relentless shit I did? Wishy washy, preparing busses, spreading confusion...
I agree with being aggressive, but as Probulous said, it's very dangerous to cross the line into being relentless. In a game with such limited information, it gets really easy to lock onto an opponent and twist everything he/she says into scummy behavior (re: my case on you D2 in Newbie XX). So yes, it's rarely a good idea to be wishy-washy and simply point suspicion. However, it's not scummy to be aggressive against someone, then simply switch to another target if they seem townie enough.
As for a hypothetical Jingle playing wishy-washy... well I'd wonder if there were two scumteams in the game or something o_O
The only way to play active town is to be implacable. If you're really town, you should be able to explain most of your motive for actions if you get quizzed on them. That's why scum lurk a lot. Less to explain. But it does lose you the hidden benefit of having provided a town read (assuming you can stay fairly consistent).
Example - If Hapa had tried what Wiggles did, when he did, it would have turned into a last minute 50/50 OMGUS shouting match to see who got lynched. Or just a straight up success for the ploy. 50% from an OMGUS war would have been my BEST odds of living through it.
Highly highly disagree with the bolded statement. While a lot of newbie-game cases tend to focus on pointing out inconsistent play, it's rarely mafia behavior. For example, YourHarry, Tube, and Calgar all got mislynched for "inconsistent" play (and an inability to explain their play), however, they were all town. For example, YourHarry's consipracy theories should have made him seem very town, even though they were crazy theories overall. Also, Calgar's play was inconsistent, it was more inline with "recklessness" rather than scummy behavior.
Basically, I think the typical newbie-game participant tends to emphasize the wrong reads when finding scum. Inconsistent play is often townie play, and if you don't have a perfect story for your actions, I'd be inclined to read you as town. Inconsistent play isn't bad townie play - it just can be bad in newbie games since newbies focus on surface-reads rather than looking for mafia-motive.
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EPT
