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On June 30 2012 06:46 NrGmonk wrote:
Also, if I'm understanding this right, Vivax pointed Keirathi as definite scum. But why did he vote for Jingle? Also, why is Keirathi also voting for Jingle if Vivax accused him of returning scum? Either Vivax is detective or not. I don't see a combination of roles which would make this make sense, unless something is really wrong.
Sorry for the short posts btw. I'm/we're really short on time, and I really want to get quick responses.
No, Jingle returned scum to the check, not Keirathi. Keirathi was lurking and playing passively and earned my FoS for it. I have already said that it would have been useless for me to attack Jingle alone at that point. Noone was willing enough to lynch him, so I emphasized the extra gain of information from lynching him over Esspen.
@ Miltonkram
Yeah, I should just have let Jingle get me lynched based off ridiculous claims. That would sure have been the better play from a DT.
In my last game the medic got lynched day 1 and he didn't claim. It's stupid to not claim as blue when you're in danger of getting lynched. That I couldn't breadcrumb the results better is due to the fact that Jingle's countercase gained momentum much faster than mine. I had to go for the direct way.
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United States8476 Posts
On June 30 2012 07:08 Esspen wrote:
I do not get all this Jingle vs Vivax discussion. Whomever we lynch, the result will be the same in the end. Even if we confirm that Vivax is the DT, he'll be killed during the night immediately.
Not unless there's a doctor. This post seems scummy, as it's the only important decision we have to make at the moment, and the discussion in the end will benefit town, so why not discuss it? But then again, it could be bad play.
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I'm aware of this as well, that his vote switch didn't actually matter and it could very well have been planted "proof".
I posted before the mod, and you really think mafia would try to ninja the mod post and risk being the next sure lynch if it fails when a mislynch is all you can wish for the moment, when you are scum and don't have to do anything except watching a townie getting killed?
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On June 30 2012 07:09 NrGmonk wrote:
Because of all these points, I'm leaning towards voting Vivax at the moment, but I'm not going to change my vote until the last minute possible for me to leave my options open.
Just don't be late like Vivax last day if you decide to change your mind.
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I can't believe so many people bought into the smoke and mirrors.
On June 29 2012 20:58 Vivax wrote:
Also, thank you for giving in to the pressure created by my delayed defense.
Upon my eventual death you might be the first to land on the chopping block.
Directed at Milton, a threat, not so subtle. "Agree with me or else".
He's made similar attempts to direct people via reactions that way throughout. He hasn't trusted in his innocent motive to shine through his "case". He's shoved his purported innocence down people's throats, even going so far as to make a blatantly false DT claim.
The whole OMGUS against me (he'll say it wasn't, but after I replaced in for an inactive player, I went for him long before he was interested in anything besides lynching Keirathi, even though he claims to have known all along I was scum. Sure.) anyways, the whole OMGUS against me is based on his claimed innocence and the fake roleclaim. If you don't assume he's innocent, and look at the cases side by side, where he's tried to manipulate, I've tried to expose.
I'll be waiting by the tree. Hopefully to see justice done.
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United States8476 Posts
On June 30 2012 07:14 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +I'm aware of this as well, that his vote switch didn't actually matter and it could very well have been planted "proof". I posted before the mod, and you really think mafia would try to ninja the mod post and risk being the next sure lynch if it fails when a mislynch is all you can wish for the moment, when you are scum and don't have to do anything except watching a townie getting killed?
?? Your vote wouldn't have mattered even if it went through and you know it. Don't even understand the rest of your post.
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Another point regarding the version where i bluff-protect hopeless to gain cred:
If I bluff-protected him, then that means I didn't plan on lynching roflwaffle55/JingleHell at that moment. So how do you explain that I try to get him lynched afterwards? Why would I try to lynch the guy I didn't want to be lynched when I bluffed-vote him to gain cred? That would be pointless. And way too risky for a scum player when there's no need to do something like that, but I already mentioned this.
And that is how I debunk this version of events where I voted so late to gain cred.
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On June 30 2012 07:08 Esspen wrote:
I do not get all this Jingle vs Vivax discussion. Whomever we lynch, the result will be the same in the end. Even if we confirm that Vivax is the DT, he'll be killed during the night immediately.
Thats not necessarily true.
What if there's a doctor and he saved Vivax?
What if we lynch Vivax and hes DT, and then mafia kills another blue role tonight?
There are lots of possibilities where this plays out differently than Jingle and Vivax both dying.
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Here's how I see it: There's a small but very real possibility that Vivax is actually DT. He was being put under pressure via votes, so decided to claim his role.. If that's the case, then lynching him to "prove" it hurts town more in the long run. We can always hope for a Doctor, and guarantee some good results.
There's a decent probability that he's Mafia and use the claim to buy himself an extra day. In this case, lynching his target hurts town in the short run, but basically guarantees us a mafia kill tomorrow, and possibly more leads from a real DT.
IMO, its better to take the safe route than to just bet on the fact that he's lying. The opportunity cost is small enough at 10 players that its worth it.
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I wasn't aware of the rule where the first to gain a majority is going to be lynched at that point.
The host actually responded to this in the previous page. I have not been taking that into consideration all the time.
I realize that this puts me in a bad spot. I would also understand if you voted for me now that you mentioned it, at least then I can finally lean back and post what I've prepared in case I get lynched.
Let me just tell you one thing: whatever happens, from the kill of either of both of us there's gonna be much information to be gained. And I will be coming up with a huge post right before my death adressing that information, should i finally get lynched.
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TL;DR: Lynching a DT who played badly hurts town more than lynching a vanilla, as I've said before.
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On June 30 2012 07:27 Keirathi wrote:
Here's how I see it: There's a small but very real possibility that Vivax is actually DT. He was being put under pressure via votes, so decided to claim his role.. If that's the case, then lynching him to "prove" it hurts town more in the long run. We can always hope for a Doctor, and guarantee some good results.
There's a decent probability that he's Mafia and use the claim to buy himself an extra day. In this case, lynching his target hurts town in the short run, but basically guarantees us a mafia kill tomorrow, and possibly more leads from a real DT.
IMO, its better to take the safe route than to just bet on the fact that he's lying. The opportunity cost is small enough at 10 players that its worth it.
Small opportunity cost? With three scum, and only 7 of us left, with night kills, there's only 2 mislynches needed to bring our team down to equal with the scum.
Worse, it's plurality, so if the scum vote fast at that point, we lose.
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EBWOP: If you couldn't tell, the point was, there's no "small opportunity cost", we should target scummy.
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On June 30 2012 07:30 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 07:27 Keirathi wrote:
Here's how I see it: There's a small but very real possibility that Vivax is actually DT. He was being put under pressure via votes, so decided to claim his role.. If that's the case, then lynching him to "prove" it hurts town more in the long run. We can always hope for a Doctor, and guarantee some good results.
There's a decent probability that he's Mafia and use the claim to buy himself an extra day. In this case, lynching his target hurts town in the short run, but basically guarantees us a mafia kill tomorrow, and possibly more leads from a real DT.
IMO, its better to take the safe route than to just bet on the fact that he's lying. The opportunity cost is small enough at 10 players that its worth it. Small opportunity cost? With three scum, and only 7 of us left, with night kills, there's only 2 mislynches needed to bring our team down to equal with the scum. Worse, it's plurality, so if the scum vote fast at that point, we lose.
One scum dies either today or tomorrow.
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On June 30 2012 07:32 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 07:30 JingleHell wrote:On June 30 2012 07:27 Keirathi wrote:
Here's how I see it: There's a small but very real possibility that Vivax is actually DT. He was being put under pressure via votes, so decided to claim his role.. If that's the case, then lynching him to "prove" it hurts town more in the long run. We can always hope for a Doctor, and guarantee some good results.
There's a decent probability that he's Mafia and use the claim to buy himself an extra day. In this case, lynching his target hurts town in the short run, but basically guarantees us a mafia kill tomorrow, and possibly more leads from a real DT.
IMO, its better to take the safe route than to just bet on the fact that he's lying. The opportunity cost is small enough at 10 players that its worth it. Small opportunity cost? With three scum, and only 7 of us left, with night kills, there's only 2 mislynches needed to bring our team down to equal with the scum. Worse, it's plurality, so if the scum vote fast at that point, we lose. One scum dies either today or tomorrow.
If a scum dies today, we don't lose a town vote in the process of lynching a scum. If a scum dies tomorrow, we do lose a town vote.
Since the DT claim is easily refuted, and an obvious desperation measure, buying into it makes no sense, so why not just vote based on behavior to begin with, and keep a town vote alive?
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Just because it's desperation doesn't necessarily mean he's lying.
Basically it comes down to why he was pressuring my if he knew jingle was scum. It's a valid question, and one I want to know a good answer for. Lynching a lurker to give another night of investigations, while eliminating a possible mafia sort of makes some small amounts of sense, though.
However I'm much more inclined to believe hes just a newbie (this is the newbie mafia after all) and was trying to conceal the fact that he was DT for as long as possible, than I am inclined to lynch a DT claim on day2, no matter how desperate.
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United States8476 Posts
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Keirathi, the question doesn't come down to "what does town lose if player X is telling the truth." It comes down to who you think is scum. The fact that you acknowledge that there is a decent case against him but you does not reflect well on your alignment. Here is why I'm voting Vivax over JingleHell: Vivax's play has been incredibly scummy, JingleHell's has not. It's that simple.
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I really hope for town's sake that I'm wrong and his claim was a last ditch effort at avoiding a lynch, because if he IS the DT, town basically loses the game as soon as the vote goes through.
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EBWOP: "The fact that you acknowledge that there is a decent case against him but you don't vote for him does not reflect well on your alignment."
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EPT
