EPTThat's how I see it.
Pick Your Power: Redux - Page 45
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
That's how I see it. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 01:48 Palmar wrote: I don't actually intend to pardon people. From where I stand at the moment, Sentinel's claim makes absolutely no sense from mafia perspective. If we try to solve the puzzle given Sentinel is mafia, he basically has forced a triangle of lynch between him, risk and marv. This makes almost no sense at all because the mafia is already weak after getting deconduo shot 5 minutes into the game. The other two at the moment make much more sense. next medal going out. Exactly what I said 12 hours ago but maybe people listen to you instead like people listened to Qatol pregame although I said the exact same thing. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:06 Snarfs wrote: Toad, you keep tossing around "modconfirmed townie" in Sentinel's direction. What do you know that we don't? He said he's a VT and he said that either risk or marv is a janitor => He either is a mafia who tries to get himself lynched in a 1v1 fashion on purpose or he's a modconfirmed townie due to the set-up (only one role available). I don't think mafia try to lynch themselves. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:05 Snarfs wrote: Palmar, you say that Sentinel claiming VT is very unlikely for mafia, but if he had claimed anything else he would be going against a plan that he had agreed to before day 1 and would very likely be under fire anyways. By claiming VT, if he is janitor, he at least has a chance to survive until the night and hide the flip and whatever information that might contain. That's how I see it. You forget that sentinal did not have to claim at all. And if we lynch townie today, we're killing the other two anyway, so whatever. | ||
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risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
While yes I may act arrogant but I'm only an arrogant stubborn hardass when I think I'm right and only aslong as I think I'm right. If you see things differently it's not my fault if you can't persuade me just like it's not the customers fault if the salesman can't sell his product. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
sent: I give sent] about 5% chance to flip mafia, tops. Marv: Honestly I don't see marv flipping mafia either because he's looking really townish, asking questions, asking what people meant (mostly what I meant) to say and stuff like that. That's a town attitude. I would usually say he's about 10% mafia 90% town but the fact that he played really bad in C9++ and nothing like that as a townie makes me think it's maye 20-30% mafia and rest town because he didn't play that way as town. Maybe coaching on how to play townish or mafia advice on how to play townish or he simply got better Risk: He's really ignorant, always, no matter of alignment. I could see him do this as both town and mafia but I'd give him a 50% chance to flip mafia. Agree / Disagree? Think we have a chance to get someone other than sent lynched? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
I've been thinking all along that the most logical possibility is that Marv is scum. He was the scummiest behaviorally before all this went down anyway for sure (lotsa one liners, tendency to jump to spamming up the thread - see his exchances with risk.nuke prior to daybreak). Let me now show you The Marvellosity Hypothesis Let us first examine the scum's reason for taking Janitor but saying they didn't. We shall hear from the horse's mouth itself, Deconduo: On May 16 2012 20:59 deconduo wrote: We had agreed on a plan. There was plenty of opportunity to voice any objections to it before the draft list was revealed. It was also mentioned that there would be no changing after the draft was revealed. And yet you come out of nowhere saying you might not follow the plan, and you give no reasoning behind it. It looks a lot like a scum wanting to be able to use janitor without having any consequences. 'Oh janitor was used? I didn't like the plan so I didn't take it, it wasn't me.' Might be because my initial plan was to take GF, when I figured it was a bit stronger than it actually is. However its pretty obvious that I abandoned that plan ages ago, and agreed with the current one. No idea why he would bring it up again now. To understand what's going on it's necessary to examine the sequence of events. 1) Draft order resolves, and scum team gets CPR doctor at #1. This is great. They have no reason to buck the plan. Then, 2) Risk.nuke comes in going crazy, saying he will not follow the plan. I actually think that his behavior gives mafia the idea to do it as well. 3) Deconduo Publicly scolds risk.nuke for his avoidance of the plan. Does a scummate really call a scummate scummy for something they know that the other guy is going to do? REALLY? No. What makes more sense is that the scum team was thinking of doing the same thing as risk (taking janitor but saying they didn't) but what they were really setting up for is laying the blame at risk's feet when the janitor power was used. 4) Marv states that he is going to RNG between the two, looking for all intents and purposes like he is following the plan. Fine. 5) Sentinel says "I will pick Janitor but I'd rather Risk complied, please comply risk!" He never states after that that for sure he will pick Janitor. If he is town, then scumteam doesn't actually know that he in fact will do so. 6) Risk picks his role. For the sake of argument, let's assume he picks vigilante. Because he probably did and everyone's already thinking it so I doubt I'm clueing in the scumteam. 7) Zelblade picks his role. Zel is 6th - and for whatever reason he also picks vigilante. I actually have thought that behaviorally zelblade is the scummiest guy here and if he picked vig at the 6 spot I think it would be consistent with a risky scum move though not necessarily indicative of one. 8) Zelblade posts that "there have been some shenanigans at the top" and therefore that "the janitor needs to claim". This is before ANY of the other claims against Janitor have been made. He knows that something fishy is going on because he picked a role that bounced - why he is certain his bounce is related to the janitor choice and not just off sentinel is something that needs to be carefully considered. 9) Immediately after zelblade's post, Marv states "I am not Janitor" 10) Zelblade asks for confirmation, giving Marv the opportunity to state that he did not pick either CPR or Janitor, but thought that by saying he would he would keep the players above him in line. Ok, fine. This could be true for town, and it also fits the requirements of what deconduo has already told us: take janitor but say you didn't. He probably should have claimed CPR - VT if he's scum, as zelblade sets him up to do, but he doesn't. 11) Sentinel then comes in an says "I did not get Janitor". If he is scum - why??? Why does he draw attention to himself like this? Here's the case for it, if I really think about it - he thought he was forced to say he picked Janitor based on what he had posted earlier, even though that post didn't make clear that he actually would do it. Therefore he felt he was forced into a lie. Why on earth does he lie that he tried for Janitor and didn't get it - I have no idea. This makes incredibly little sense. He should have lied that he took another role or tell the truth that he is Janitor. The scum team is already down one member at this point - by lying he's really hurting his team if he's scum. The other possibility of course is that he's not lying, and is town. 12) Risk.nuke confirms that he did not take Janitor. 13) Clusterfuck ensues. The real key here is events 2) and 3). If it's sentinel - why would the scum team be already showing that they had this idea, when they had no idea what Marv would do? Are they really saying "Oh, Risk isn't going to take Janitor - well maybe Sentinel can try for it." Sentinel could have just taken angry vigilante, or day vig (which is the same as GF), or any other great scum role, and avoided the possibility of hitting the wrong side of a 50/50 flip. If it's Risk.nuke, then why is he so adamant and cocksure about defying the plan? Why is Deconduo calling attention to him about it, literally spelling out why the plan is scummy? That's too silly if risk is scum - then risk uses janitor later and deconduo has already planted the seed that he's scum? Doesn't make sense. If it's Marv, then it actually makes some sense - he was #3, and suddenly risk is saying he's not going to pick janitor. Great! Now he can pick it. But he still needs to eventually come up with a lie that says that he didn't pick it. This is the weakest part of this case, because I think his optimal lie is what zelblade suggested to him: CPR - VT. But what he went with wasn't that bad either. Suddenly sentinel comes along and fucks everything up by saying that he might pick janitor too - and then he does and claims it. I think if Marv knew that this was for sure going to happen, he would have claimed CPR - VT. But he probably figured that Sentinel didn't pick Janitor at all, which would lead everyone to believe it had slipped lower in the cracks or hadn't been picked at all. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:10 Palmar wrote: You forget that sentinal did not have to claim at all. And if we lynch townie today, we're killing the other two anyway, so whatever. I don't think we would have forgotten about him if he just didn't claim. I agree with risk that it seems like he rushed into this without thinking everything through fully. Either way, everyone needs to be voting between Sentinel and risk.nuke at this point to ensure we have a lynch. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:14 risk.nuke wrote: From how people explain sentinels action these last pages. You people are beeing corrupted by the situation. You need to go back and reread how sentinel started this. While yes I may act arrogant but I'm only an arrogant stubborn hardass when I think I'm right and only aslong as I think I'm right. If you see things differently it's not my fault if you can't persuade me just like it's not the customers fault if the salesman can't sell his product. The problem is you're not making a decision easy. If you're town you're deliberately making it hard to come to a conclusion. It's strictly bad play. There is not a single role in that pool of roles that's so important that you can't out that you have it. It's not even a given that mafia got a roleblocker. Roleblocker was actually one of the roles I had my sights on if I had gotten in early, I really like being a town roleblocker, it's almost better than a medic. The only one of those three selling a complete product is Sentinel, why on earth would the only outspoken and "honest" person in the group be the scum? That makes no sense. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:17 Snarfs wrote: I don't think we would have forgotten about him if he just didn't claim. I agree with risk that it seems like he rushed into this without thinking everything through fully. Either way, everyone needs to be voting between Sentinel and risk.nuke at this point to ensure we have a lynch. So you think that after seeing 2 out of 3 people not doing what they were supposed to do according to our plan and the third flipping mafia he would be crazy panicing as mafia and "shitshitshit, they will lynch me if I tell them I didn't do what I was supposed to do"? Just a straight yes or no. Want to know if I need to talk you in the future. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:20 marvellosity wrote: talis - why would I think Sentinel wouldn't pick janitor? Because his post didn't say that he would - he said he was ok with it, but would rather risk cooperated. He never committed. It's also possible that you had already picked at that point. I still would like to clarify this point: Were players allowed to change their rolepicks up to the deadline? Or was it only one shot and no do-overs? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:20 marvellosity wrote: talis - why would I think Sentinel wouldn't pick janitor? In addition, you and deconduo had already been working together to set Risk.nuke up to take the fall for this, given how both of you attacked him during the rolepicking phase. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:24 talismania wrote: Were players allowed to change their rolepicks up to the deadline? Or was it only one shot and no do-overs? Rolepicks could be changed up to the deadline, as usual | ||
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Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:14 risk.nuke wrote: From how people explain sentinels action these last pages. You people are beeing corrupted by the situation. You need to go back and reread how sentinel started this. While yes I may act arrogant but I'm only an arrogant stubborn hardass when I think I'm right and only aslong as I think I'm right. If you see things differently it's not my fault if you can't persuade me just like it's not the customers fault if the salesman can't sell his product. Get a clue. You are the salesman, we are the costumers. You are not convincing that sentinel is mafia(not me at least). lynch risk. I wont let another scum slip from my hands by hiding behind this card again. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On May 19 2012 02:19 Toadesstern wrote: So you think that after seeing 2 out of 3 people not doing what they were supposed to do according to our plan and the third flipping mafia he would be crazy panicing as mafia and "shitshitshit, they will lynch me if I tell them I didn't do what I was supposed to do"? Just a straight yes or no. Want to know if I need to talk you in the future. My answer is whichever will prevent you from talking to me in the future (of this game). Nothing personal, but I think you talking less in general would be beneficial for town. If you can't be clear enough with your posting that you have to bust out multiple posts every day whining about how someone said the same thing that you did, except in a way that made sense, maybe you should put some more time into your posts. I don't want to drag the discussion away from scum-hunting though, so please don't reply to this. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
2 scum are dead I think, maybe even until there's only 1 scum left. Even if your stab misses scum it would still help town by eliminating a possibility and help you by getting rid of a good role no matter what. | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On May 19 2012 00:44 Qatol wrote: Does the Janitor's ability affect any posts other than the day post immediately following the Janitor's PM? It also hides town, mafia and SK numbers in the OP, so you won't know how many of each are left. It does not affect that days lynch or any future day or night posts. | ||
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