Newbie Mini XII
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On April 30 2012 12:44 DeMorcerf wrote: (^I will miss Awake when it goes off-air.) Sorry to do this, but: Millers - they are listed on the "remaining list" but not on the "Roles and Setup Info"; so are there potentially millers in this game? Vigilante has only 1 bullet? Hypothetically, if the Framer frames the Godfather, does he return 'Mafia'? When a mafia dies, will we be told specifically if they were goon, framer, rolecop, etc? Jailer protects from "1kp and roleblock" : so if the jailed player is targeted by multiple kps they would die? If they are "protected from roleblock" does that imply that their action still occurs, or is being jailed the same as being roleblocked? Does jailing also prevent investigation by detective or rolecop; does it also prevent being framed? What happens if Jailkeeper and Mafia Drug-Roleblocker act on each other? Drugged players are informed; are jailed players informed? Why would the framere frame the Godfather? | ||
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On April 30 2012 21:10 Mattchew wrote: WIFOM = Wine in front of me. Best described here http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM AF i have no idea what that means If you read all the links in the 4th OP post Useful Guides This will help you greatly with abbreviations and game play I've found that day play has very little WIFOM. Typically there is an optimal way for townspeople to play and since there is no reason for a townsperson to make himself look like a Mafia, there is no circular reasoning. The mafia will try their best to look like townspeople. The townspeople will try their best to look like townspeople. In my experience WIFOM only applies in hit or miss situations where, say, the detective has revealed himself/herself to combat a lategame roleclaim by scum when a doctor/protector has already revealed himself. At this point the doctor must think through the reasoning of whether he should protect himself or the detective. In newbie games (in person), if I happen to get the protector role, in the absence of roleblockers, I always reveal myself immediately and instruct the detective not to do the same. This turns the game into one where knowing friends' IRL personalities and tells will win the game (which tends to favor me since I like to stare at the hot chicks I play with), rather than ridiculous WIFOM mixed strategy nonsense. Since it is not particularly easy to detect "tells" in online text-based play (especially in newbie games where nobody knows one another), I'm not sure how such a game plays out as anything more than the result of luck and random whimsy. In the absence of tells, it seems to me like the dominant strategy in day play is to vote off whoever is most useless. Following this train of logic, the surviving players will be those that are least experienced so the identity of the winning team will be determined solely by the distribution induced by the initial RNG. Even if, on the other hand, the fact that this is a newbie game might result in a number of players genuinely having no idea about the basics of game theory, backward induction, or the mechanics of the game of mafia, scum pretending to be a such a noob unfamiliar with game mechanics is the surest way to get lynched. The interesting part of this comes into play if the number of mafia KP + roleblocks outnumbers the town roles/roleblocks. Then mafia will have a winning chance of making headway by removing the most useful players. Then, there's some interesting play where being useless during the day protects you from being targeted at night, but might get you lynched. All this analysis seems to yield the existence of at least one fun Nash Equilibrium: 1.) In the absence of role blocks or any roleclaims, the protector should always be as useful as he or she can be during the day. 2.) Mafia should try their best to be useful since they cannot be targeted at night. These two strategies are roughly dominant since the lack of information about the number of initial roles cannot inform a nontrivial bayesian prior, and thus no real information is revealed by being "useful." 3.) Townspeople should play a mixed strategy since there is a tradeoff between being targeted during the day or being targeted during the night. Depending on townspeoples' beliefs as to the number of mafia remaining in the game, the distribution of usefulness to uselessness should be modified accordingly. | ||
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In a very rough approximation if a certain faction has the advantage, it behooves them to play randomly, since there is no advantage the other team can gain against such random play. This is only rough, however, since certain roles give critical information whose value is hard to quantify. | ||
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Seeing as I have no data so far, my notes are currently based only on the chosen usernames. + Show Spoiler + 1.) dahdum -> This guy has a silly name. 2.) Gummy -> This is me. I am a vanilla townie. 3.) AcesRequiem -> What a tryhard name. Expect serious things from this pro. 4.) Matriarch -> this person is probably not female. Maybe MtF transgender. Or maybe just a feminist who believes in a merits of a matrilineal society 5.) DeMorcerf -> Don't understand this name. Maybe he is esoteric. 6.) FirmTofu -> Somebody with this amazing a name cannot be scum. I hope I'm not proven wrong. 7.) Clawtrocity -> Sense some violent undercurrents in this one. Very anakin-esque. 8.) paschl -> Good clean fun name. Hard to see such a wonderful name as scum. 9.) Ange777 -> Numbers in the name. Sounds like a smurf. Be weary of this one. Troll sense activated. | ||
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I suspect we will have the standard detective and medic(just looked it up and it's apparently called a medic in this game. Very bw-esque) on the townie side. I also suspect the size of the Mafia faction is 2. Any more and the most likely outcome leaves the mafia winning by day 3. Any fewer, and they don't stand a chance. Based on this hypothesis, the composition of the scum faction is up in the air. It might be that both members of the mafia are special roles. Since this is a newbie game and Mattchew presumably wants to make this as fun for as many of us as possible, I am going with this gut feeling. I suspect one scum is a rolecop. The other scum is a goon/blocker/framer. I don't think it would make sense for there to be two from the set of goon/blocker/framer since they more or less are out to do the same thing.... sabotage the detective. | ||
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On May 01 2012 08:35 paschl wrote: Im gonna give Gummy some townie points for the opening. Sounds honest/happy to play and he makes a promise to keep giving notes. Once per page even. Since i think its hard to keep this up (to be clear, i dont think its possible to get the list in once per page) i think a scum would be unlikely to make the promise in the first time. So love is all around. I'm going to give paschl some scum points since, as I mentioned in the preface chatter, that basically everybody should play the strategy of being useful with nonzero probability. However, to presume that I am a Vanilla Townie is the least probable given a set of Bayesian priors, since townies have an optimal mixed strategy between being helpful and laying low. At worst you are scum trying to direct my attention away from you. At best, you have poorly laid out your train of deduction and given the few number of players we have and the utter lack of information regarding the number and composition of roles, such naivete is ample reason for me to cast my vote for you. Alas, nobody else has opened their mouths yet. Just to be clear, I am gambling on their not being a role blocker and there being a medic. I hope that by laying out notes I will be a sufficiently attractive target for the medic to save for the first 2 nights or so. | ||
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List of hypothesized roles and corresponding claims: Townies: 1 Detective 1 Medic 2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy, Paschl Scum 1 Framer 1 Rolecop | ||
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On May 01 2012 08:54 Ange777 wrote: Oh, the game started, I am really excited Seems like I should have chosen a better name? ^^ Anyway, I am no smurf just a long time reader creating the account to try TL Mafia. I only played a similar game IRL once so I really wanted to try this. Isn't it a bit harsh to judge the players by their names? Maybe we should talk about the name Gummy. Perhaps someone who loves gummy bears and apparentely tofu. Weird sense of taste @Paschl: I think you can change your timezone in your profile by picking the right country. Hey scum. You gonna claim a role? | ||
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Townies: 1 Detective 1 Medic 2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy, Paschl 2 Other roles? Scum 1 Framer - Ange777 1 Rolecop | ||
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On May 01 2012 08:59 paschl wrote: Gummy you shouldnt do this. Nowhere did i claim vanilla townie. I might be the detective. Youre making the job easy for the scum. And you included the scum roles for "corresponding claims"? I hope someone signs up lol. On May 01 2012 08:59 Gummy wrote: List of hypothesized roles and corresponding claims: Townies: 1 Detective 1 Medic 2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy 2 Other roles? Scum 1 Framer - Ange777 1 Rolecop - Paschl | ||
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On May 01 2012 09:06 paschl wrote: Fwiw, i read through the forum a little and there were previous 9er newbie games. In the setup thread it lists the following possible lineups: " 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor." So i highly suspect this game uses one of the same systems. And no Gummy, you usually dont win if youre wrong. Half those games had no detective/cop. What is this?!?!?! lol | ||
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On May 01 2012 09:10 Matriarch wrote: Yay the game started! I'm vanilla townie and am very excited to be in my first real game. I really hope we get some more active posters soon as so we can get rolling on this scum hunt! Don't worry. I already figured out who the scum are. It's paschl and ange. Thank me later. | ||
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On April 28 2012 04:20 Mattchew wrote: Remember, three or fewer games played to sign up! Player List
2.) Gummy 3.) AcesRequiem 4.) Matriarch 5.) DeMorcerf 6.) FirmTofu 7.) Clawtrocity 8.) paschl 9.) Ange777 Filter
2.) 3.) 4.) 5.) 6.) 7.) 8.) 9.) Replacements
2.) 3.) 4.) 2/2 Mafia Remaining ?/? Goon(s) ?/? Roleblocker(s) ?/? Framer(s) ?/? Godfather(s) ?/? Role cop(s) Mafia KP currently equals 1 7/7 Town ??/?? Vanilla Townie(s) ??/?? Detective(s) ??/?? Medic(s) ??/?? Jailkeeper(s) ??/?? Vigilante(s) As usual, PM me for the observer QT, or if you wish to be listed as an official coach | ||
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On May 01 2012 19:55 Gummy wrote: ##Vote Clawtrocity There is no strategic reason to claim medic first turn. That is suicide if you cannot save yourself. The way I see it, clawtrocity is: 1.) Useless 2.) A townie who is trying to take the bullet for the real medic. I have no reason to believe there would be two medics. 3.) Scum who is trying to cast away suspicion from himself. | ||
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Just fyi, in case you vote me off, I currently suspect Clawtrocity and Paschl. I am almost certain that ange777 demorcef dahdum firmtofu are good guys. I believe Matriarch and AcesRequiem, so far, to be entirely useless. | ||
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Claw is not medic, but is banking on there being "another" medic who will waste his save on him since he has now "revealed" himself as the medic. Tofu revealed detective contingent on Claw's being medic to save him. But this reasoning is inherently flawed since he is in the best case dead second night. Both revealed means night 1.) mafia kill medic -> 2.) mafia kill detective. This strategy is so obvious that these night kills won't even reveal any information as to the identity of the scum. Thus, we can infer that there was collusion between Claw and Tofu's role claims. Therefore, if one is scum, so is the other. | ||
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Poll: Who should I save? DeMorcef (5) paschl (5) Ange777 (3) dahdum (2) AcesRequiem (2) Matriarch (2) FirmTofu (2) Clawtrocity (2) 23 total votes Your vote: Who should I save? (Vote): dahdum | ||
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Lying is just part of this game. | ||
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On May 02 2012 02:41 dahdum wrote: I'm on PDT (-7) time, so it's morning at work for me, hence recent inactivity. LAL (Lynch All Liars) is in the best interest of town since scum want people confused and questioning, as well as the ability to lie themselves. I can post more at lunch/evening. If claw and tofu are gone and we still haven't won, you will be the next person on my list. Scum suspicion level: 1 ) Clawtrocity 2.) FirmTofu 3.) dahdum 4.) paschl 5.) AcesRequiem 6.) Matriarch 7.) Ange777 8.) DeMorcerf | ||
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On May 02 2012 03:04 paschl wrote: Not all lies are bad. It should be called selectively lynch a lot of liars. So we have a lot of liars now? Sounds pretty scummy to me. | ||
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1.) There are not 2 medics 2.) I am the medic and he is not the medic. Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case. Tofu, as DeMorcef implied, put himself straight in the Mafia's cross hairs. He won't be alive more than 2 nights. So either he's bad, he's a martyr, or he's scum. As a martyr, he could be buying the real detective at least 2 nights of unchecked reveals. Legitimate reason to lie, especially since clawtrocity's role claim and subsequent waffling takes precedence in day play. More likely, however, Claw and Tofu got together and hatched a poorly thought out plan to make subsequent role claims. Scum is scum is scum. Seeing as I've already counter-claimed medic, there is no plausible reason to kill me first day, since I'll be targeted first night anyway. I might not be targeted first night so as to cast aspersion on my credibility, but this is highly unlikely since a dead medic is strictly better than a weakly credible medic from the scum's point of view. Since I am 99% sure that clawtrocity is scum, leaving 6 v 1 with at least one townie special role remaining are fantastic odds. This narrative should be corroborated by the results of the first cycle. | ||
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Secondly, you're basically using a "It would be too obvious if I were Mafia, therefore I'm not Mafia" argument which isn't going to fly. The wine is in front of you, not in front of me, scum. I have to study for finals now, so I'll see you guys next cycle. That said my vote is in and I've cast my save via PM already in case I don't get lynched this day cycle. Recommend voting clawtrocity and tofu immediately. | ||
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1.) Why am I so aggressive to the point of nonsensicality? I want to place pressure on players. Inexperience implies high vulnerability to pressure. Since I know I'm not scum I have nothing to hide by running around randomly placing pressure on every player who gives me reason to doubt their cool headedness. Contradictory roleclaim by clawtrocity and subsequent suicidal roleclaim by tofu were typical actions I was hoping to see from such pressure. 2.) Why did I not reveal my medic role immediately after Claw's reveal? I did if you were watching carefully. I wanted to do it in a measured fashion until I saw Claw's reaction immediately after my casting a vote for him. Once I was reasonably confident I made a very obvious counter claim. 3.) Why am I suddenly more interested in Tofu than in Paschl? A bit of a.) delayed reasoning based on my focus on Claw's text that didn't make it obvious to me until about the time I placed my vote for Claw that Tofu's role claim was either conditioned entirely on the probability of their being more than one protective townie role or his being suicidal/scum. b.) his subsequent "defense" when I began to pressure him became exquisitely suspicious. In particular, his rebuttal of my accusation: On May 02 2012 13:14 FirmTofu wrote: Say what? You're passing this off as...logic? First of all, mafia won't attack Claw unless they wish to take a HUGE risk. They'd essentially be betting that there isn't a second medic out there, just to kill a claimed medic. It's a bad idea, no matter how you look at it. They'll need all the kills they can get from night to night and risking a non-kill on someone who might get healed is a bad idea. Your conclusion of my death by night two does not follow from your premises. Therefore, your argument is logically flawed. Yes, it is a possibility I may die on night 2, but there was a possibility of me dying on night 2 even if I didn't claim detective. I think my roleclaim is forcing the mafia's hand as we speak. Let's assume mafia takes the enormous risk. EVEN IF Clawtrocity dies night 1, a jailkeeper is always out there to protect me. Furthermore, the fact that you want to kill me after I claim detective is extremely scummy. Do you really think Claw and I somehow planned all this out, the roleclaim and everything, as a mafia team? It would be a very foolish long-term strategy for mafia, because if either one died for ANY reason, the other would be incriminated immediately. I am not so short-sighted. The bolded section, from the Mafia's perspective is not even a risk worth considering. His entire rebuttal rests, then, on an assumption by the Mafia that there is a >50% chance of there being another protective role in the town and that protective role is somehow willing to waste a vote protecting two suicidal roleclaims instead of a very likely useful and cool-headed townie like Demorcef. The question in the thread On May 01 2012 10:38 FirmTofu wrote: Hi! I'm very excited to start playing this game. The last TL Mafia game I played, I got lynched pretty early because day ended earlier than I expected and I hadn't said much, but this time I can assure you that I will be a lot more active. So far, I feel like I can trust Clawtrocity and Gummy. Paschl seems a bit...meh, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Matriarch could be anything, it's hard to say. Ange777 is either scum or is very inexperienced. I've got my eye on her in particular. I want to attempt to do something, but first I need a question answered. Are doctors notified int he event that their heal ends up healing their target? Is the healed person notified that they they have been attacked and healed? Was already explicitly answered in the pre-game chatter. I found his re-asking that same question particularly suspicious and the answer he received to that question entirely inconsistent with his legitimately being a detective. While no mention is made of the actual result of the medic's action, for example, that somebody's being alive and nobody else being dead means either 1.) My save was effective 2.) Townies have more than one protective role. 3.) Mafia be trollin'. So then, after going through a few practice exams, I came back and thought about why that question would need to be answered, and most obvious reason I could see for it was to open up a medic roleclaim by somebody with whom he had previously been in communication. Since only mafia are allowed to privately communicate and since I was, by this time, convinced by Claw's scumminess, my attention turned entirely to Claw. This following exerpt: I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive. I explained why in my second post. If you see any problems with that logic, feel free to poke holes in it and I'll be glad to answer. These ad hominem arguments aren't getting us anywhere other than, "You're scum because it's scummy to claim on day 1!" Please provide some reasoning to back up your accusations. in particular became damning in my eyes. "I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive." It's not that I don't buy that logic, but rather I don't buy that anybody would be legitimately foolish enough to believe that logic. Turning to his second post, reproduced here: On May 01 2012 18:01 FirmTofu wrote: Clawtrocity, I am going to assume your Medic claim is true and ask you to heal me. This is a win-win situation for us and I'll tell you why. 1) If Clawtrocity is mafia, he will not want me dead because my death would imply he is not the medic. He is half of his team. My life for his is a great trade for town. 2) If Clawtrocity is medic, he will heal me and I am completely safe from death. Mafia will be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw is telling the truth. 3) If Clawtrocity is vanilla townie, mafia will still be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw to be the medic. HOWEVER, there is one potential hole in my plan. Claw could be vanilla townie, and I may die tonight. If this occurs we will be in a very bad position going forward. I am confident that mafia will not make such a bold move because the chances of success are minimal. Let's look at this reasoning based on maximizing expectation of surviving. Presume, for the sake of argument, that he is the detective, he believes Claw's claim, and he is genuinely trying to stay alive. What is his probability of being targeted after Claw's reveal on the first night? The obvious answer is that it's the same probability he enjoyed of being lynched had he not revealed Detective himself. He, in no way, increases the probability of survival of himself or the medic on the first night since the medic cannot heal himself. What about night 2? Presuming 2 lynches and 1 mafia kill (on the presumedly legitimate medic), there are 6 townies left in the second night. He is sure to die. What if he had not revealed himself? Then his probability of surviving to make a second ID is at least 5/6. Giving him a 5/6 probability on day 3 of having 2 reveals ready to go on the remaining 5 players. If the town believes him, the town wins, since the majority of the town has been identified. Now there is nothing complex or subtle about this line of reasoning and I am not convinced that Tofu would have been oblivious to this prior to his claim of such a vulnerable and valuable role... Until we take the counterfactual where he is not detective and knows that he will not be targeted either of these two nights. Well then, his hope would be that he could bullshit his way through day play. Then be in the same situation on day 3 with 2 bullshit reveals. Now, his only task remains to stay consistent with his flawed logic. If the town believes him, Mafia immediately win. Now I reiterate... there is no WIFOM going on in this reasoning here and no circularity is implied. I am merely laying out optimal strategies for Tofu given two possible states of the world. In one state of the world (where he is actually detective), his strategy is suicidal. In another state of the world (where is not detective), his strategy makes only makes sense insofar as his opponents are not clever enough to pick out the aforementioned sub-optimality. And as far as text-based Mafia goes without knowing people's prior personalities and/or tells, suboptimality of strategy is all you can really use to incriminate somebody. The next question is "Gummy, why are you so noble as to place yourself in the crosshairs?" Well this is easy to understand based on the prior train of reasoning. I am sufficiently confident in Claw being scum, that my being killed off tonight will leave the town in a 6 v. 1 situation. Simplification in such games always works in the majority's favor. Also, I'm just a really good guy. <- not actual reasoning So TL;DR: Claw is definitely scum. When I'm dead after the first night, presume Tofu as the subsequent prime suspect. | ||
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On May 02 2012 15:02 Clawtrocity wrote: That's about the best I'll get out of Gummy then. I was merely telling him he wasn't mafia to trick him into getting defensive. In a nutshell if I called him out as being mafia he'd say I was stupid and move on, but because I told him that he wasn't mafia he inadvertently got defensive and used a defensive mechanic called projection. If you notice in his post he claims this: How is it ok for Tofu to do it, but not okay for me to lie about my role? I believe he's projecting himself onto me which is why he claimed Medic. He's trying to say that I'm the one that's sneaky and lying, even though he did the exact same thing. If you look hard enough you'll see projections with everything he says. He admits that lying is ok, but condemns me for lying even though he lied as well. So if we take into account his love to project himself onto everyone else then we can also take into account the fact that he is accusing everyone of being scum. That in combination with his slightly defensive attitude and role claim after I said he wasn't scum makes me think he's scum. At worst he's a citizen who's skill has gone way to much to his head At best he's a scum who'll lie and bullshit his way around until eventually getting lynched while his teammate sits in the back and does almost nothing. ##Vote Gummy There is nothing categorically wrong in this game with lying. What matters instead, is whether or not you can deduce lying as an optimal strategy given a set of beliefs or objectives. Claiming to be a medic when you're not a medic is only optimal insofar as to be a martyr. However this is only conditional on a belief that there is a high probability in there being a real medic, which using the history Ange777 posted as a Bayesian prior, is only 50%. So we are expected to believe that Claw would be willing to suicide himself with 100% probability on night 1 for the sake of protecting a role that has only a 50% chance of existing, and would only have a 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 (depending on how day play goes) of being targeted anyway. That is not consistent with the victory conditions of the townspeople. There should really be no doubt in anybody's mind that Claw is scum... On the other hand, claiming to be a vanilla in case of an actual role, as I did, is consistent with my aforementioned strategy of placing pressure on people to role claim. Cool headed, townie-faction should optimally claim either Vanilla Townie or just flatly refuse to role claim as a number of players correctly did. So conditioned on the fact that I needed to make the "ROLE CLAIM NAO!" act convincing and I needed to make a role claim of some sort, I was much safer claiming Vanilla than an actual role, since it is a dominant strategy in expectations, conditional on role claiming and the given roles where you can't save yourself (especially with a potential roleblocker), to claim vanilla. I've already worked through the cases as to why this is so for the roles of detective and medic (see this post for medic and previous post for detective). The logic for jailkeeper and vigilante are basically the same. Thus my lie is consistent with my being in the townie faction. Claw's lie was not. | ||
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Poll: How Pro is Gummy? Crazy pretentious douchebag. (10) Obvious scum is obvious. (4) Greatest natural to ever play TLM. (3) Kinda schizo. (1) 18 total votes Your vote: How Pro is Gummy? (Vote): Obvious scum is obvious. | ||
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Since this is a newbie game, it's kind of hard to tell between innocuous shitty play, as from myself, and genuinely scummy play, as from Claw. Maybe it's like Garena HoN where ♬ Anything is possible! ♬ | ||
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On May 02 2012 05:00 DeMorcerf wrote: ...Seriously, I feel like you are burying us with your posts Gummy. That huge poll...what? Distractions and spam = scummy, not helpful. (dahdum is correct, and Gummy and paschl are wrong.) In this game, LAL is best. It is wrong to suggest that Town all have an incentive to lie. An honest Townie can be quite powerful. Once a Town player has lied, even with good intentions, the rest of us can no longer trust him for the remainder of the game. Hence, there is no justifiable reason for us to lie. And since we need at least one plan to stick with, we should lynch all proven liars. Claw, I think you are overthinking things. The Mafia will not avoid hitting you because they think you are lying: they are just as likely to hit a townie by randomly hitting someone else, so their best bet is to hit you with the chance of you having been honest (since liars get lynched). A revealed DT and medic are not going to be left living after 2 nights. The Mafia cannot and will not risk letting Tofu live any longer than that because with only 2 members they can't afford the chance he is DT and manages to finger one of them. Took a shower and I feel awake! Yay Caffeine! A stronger strategy than LAL, especially in newbie games, is LSP or Lynch Suboptimal Play. If people play strategies that are not rationalizable given their claimed set of beliefs, either they don't know what they are doing or they are lying about their beliefs. LAL is too restrictive a solution concept and when brought to a logical conclusion, everybody posts "I am a vanilla townie. I don't know anything" as often as possible and no information is brought out. Bullying people into making hasty plays is a much stronger strategy, imo. Even if that bullying requires some lying on my part. As far as I'm concerned I'm a dead man walking anyway, so I might as well get as much information out as possible for you guys before I get shot in my sleep tonight. | ||
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A stronger strategy than LAL, especially in newbie games, is LSP or Lynch Suboptimal Play. If people play strategies that are not rationalizable given their claimed set of beliefs, either they don't know what they are doing or they are lying about their beliefs. Glossary Information set: A set of states of the world between which a given player cannot distinguish. Information partition: A set of nonintersecting information sets. Each player's information partition may differ from every other person's. I don't actually use this term, but it serves to place the previous term in context. A person can be said to be "omniscient" if all his or her information sets within his/her information partition is of size 1. A player is said to have "imperfect information" otherwise. Strategy: A mapping from an information set to an action. An example would be "If I am here, I will play this action with some probability." In Rock paper scissors, since you don't know what your opponent is playing, your strategy can only be a probability distribution on R, P, or S. You can't say "If my opponent plays rock, I'll play paper" since what your opponent will play (Rock, paper or scissors) are all in the same information set. In chess, however, you can say "If my opponent plays E4 for his first move, I'll play E5 for my first move." Belief: In a game of imperfect information, this is a probability distribution conditioned on you being in a given information set over the possible states of the world in that information set. For example you can say in Rock Paper Scissors, I believe that my opponent will play Rock. Thus, your belief places a probability of 1 on rock and probability of 0 on the other two actions playable by your opponent. You can say that a strategy is optimal with respect to a player's beliefs if he plays "Scissors" in response to a claimed belief of Paper. Correct or Reasonable Beliefs: There are some beliefs that are obviously incorrect. Computation of correctness of a belief is rather pedantic and involves taking limits. As far as is necessary to understand, when I use the term "reasonable beliefs" or "set of beliefs" I am referring to the "Support" of reasonable beliefs, or that is the states of the world one can reasonably believe himself to be in with nonzero probability. States of the world are just different possible scenarios you could be in within a given information set. (Again with RPS, the opponent having made up his mind to play scissors is one state of the world. Paper would be another, etc...) To expand on this for people unfamiliar with game theory.... We are all playing a game of imperfect information. We can assume that people play rationalizable strategies given their claimed set of beliefs. Rationalizable means best response. In rock paper scissors, this means that I play rock if I think you will play scissors, etc... If, however, it turns out that somebody claims they were expecting scissors, but then play paper, we know they were lying. But lying isn't important. What is important is that we can deduce from a given set of play, a set of beliefs (see glossary) for which that play is optimal or near-optimal. In the instance where somebody says "I'm expecting paper" yet invariably plays rock, for example, we can deduce that he ACTUALLY was expecting scissors or is just bad. So while LAL is a good starting point for casting suspicion, we need to see the set of beliefs for which the discovered lie is optimal. If the set of beliefs for which the discovered lie is optimal does not intersect with correct beliefs to be held by townspeople, only then do we lynch them. To illustrate this point with another example... presume that revealing yourself as a role increases your believed likelihood of getting targeted at night if you're a townie, but does not increase your believed likelihood of getting targeted at night if your'e a mafia. Thus, suicidal role revelation is not an action consistent with any beliefs that might be reasonably held by a townsperson. It is, however, almost consistent with some beliefs that could be reasonably held by a Mafia, depending on how we model players' conditioning of beliefs based on information sets. I've used "imperfect information" "beliefs" and "states of the world." These are all different ways for saying more or less the same thing in somewhat different frameworks. You can simulate "states of the world" in a game of imperfect information by adding an impartial player at the beginning, named "Nature" if you will, who plays a strategy unobservable by some subset of the players. Then we can model beliefs based on what each player believes about which unobservable strategies were played. | ||
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I am so bad at English. | ||
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Whether certain beliefs make sense for a player depends on payoffs of all players. We don't know the payoff of a given player, say Gummy, but if we hypothesize the setup of the game, we can ascertain payoffs for certain roles. Mafia, for example, have positive payoff when a nonmafia is lynched during day play. Townspeople, on the other hand have a positive payoff wherever Mafia have a negative payoff. From payoffs, we can derive beliefs, so in that sense the pedantic computation of limits I dismissed a few posts up is significant. In most cases, however, such computations are simply consistent with common sense. | ||
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On May 02 2012 22:06 Mattchew wrote: 2 things No more polls. (They are stupid) Do not edit your posts. Claw has been warned. The only change in his post is the bold'ing of his vote. This is Mod-Confirmed. Lots of stupid things are fun though. Some people even find things fun precisely because those things are stupid. More to the point, I feel that polls are a way of anonymously involving the input of nonplayer TL members and gives the game an illusion of interactivity that will draw more observers and garner more interest in future TLM games! | ||
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On May 02 2012 21:30 paschl wrote: Gummy, its a newbie game. A lof of people are gonna make mistakes because theyre new to the game. Lynching suboptimal play in a newbie game makes 0 sense. I feel like my head just exploded. So what's the alternative? Voting people off via an arbitrary and provably exploitable strategy (LAL)? | ||
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Your reasoning for voting Dahdum is that he's useless. If that's his worst offense, then I recommend you vote for nolynch. Clawtrocity, imo, has not only shown himself to be a liar, but has shown himself to be a liar with motives that could only be scummy. It's not that he's useless, it's that he's actively hurting the townie's position with his play (luring out a detective). Whether or not he is scum, he needs to go. Despite what Claw warned you of, I am confident enough in my case and the reasoning I have laid out to say that anybody defending Claw or even deflecting attention away from Claw is suspect. There is literally no evidence in this format that could be more incriminating than what has already been presented. So incriminating is the evidence against him that even as his partner in scum, you should be voting for him at this point. A lot of the faulty logic I've seen so far is "let it play out. We'll have more information later." You don't get free information in this game. If you don't land a lynch on a Mafia you are in exactly the same information state in the next day, only you're in a worse position than the day before. Anybody can claim to be detective and make something up. That's not information. The only information in this game you can trust is stuff revealed directly from Mattchew and your own deductions based on those revelations. So when somebody says "He's made himself suspicious enough for us to vote him off later." That is a huge logical fallacy. If he's made himself suspicious enough NOW, then you must vote him off NOW. | ||
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You MUST vote clawtrocity or we will be in EXACTLY the same place as we are right now, only down one and 6/7ths of a townie only up (2/8=)1/4th of a mafia in expectation, since a vote for anybody else is essentially a shot in the dark at this point. Any vote not directed toward clawtrocity is a vote against the town. Seeing as I'm dead anyway, it would be fair to say that you are either with me or against me. Make my sacrifice worth it | ||
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There is nothing categorically wrong with the lie. It's what that lie reveals about the underlying beliefs. Reading tone in your second language on an internet forum is not a valid source of information in a newbie game. Your statistic on blue roles not getting killed on day one is ridiculous. It's not conditioned on day 1 contestation of role claims. Given that a blue player (myself) came out with a role on day one means that I have sufficient confidence in my accusation to risk myself for the greater good of the team. To be honest your reasoning of "I will divine the mafia by analyzing tone" will hold us back far more than it will help us going forward. Vote the obvious scum. Claw IS scum. | ||
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I am making an ultimatum here. If Claw is not voted off today, then I will shut up for the rest of the game, only posting enough not to get modkilled. I will vote nolynch every day after this one if Claw is not voted off today. So make your choice between him or me. GL HF folks. | ||
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this link. Furthermore, the ultimatum serves as a computation simplifier for those players unwilling or unable to run through the logic I have presented. I have reduced the question of "how does Gummy's lie differ from Claw's lie and what can we infer about their intentions based upon those differences" to "Who would we rather have on our team going forward?" | ||
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My ultimatum is entirely consistent with wanting to help the town via the folk theorem. Seeing as I am very confident that claw is scum, what I do from here on out if people do not lynch claw is irrelevant since we cannot win. Since all outcomes in which claw is not lynched end in the town losing, my voting no lynch is just as useful a vote as any other. Further, since I expect to be targeted the first night anyway, since the mafia would be stupid not to, I would very much prefer that Claw be taken down as well. Not using my save on somebody who refuses to vote for claw is bait for a reason that is obvious if you think through what has been revealed so far. Even if it were not bait, I would rather there be somebody sympathetic to my reasoning in the morning than otherwise. Mafia would prefer the opposite. Thus, everything I have said so far is consistent with my interests being aligned with the town's. If my rhetoric is offensive or annoying, be assured that it is intentional. I will complete this post a little later. | ||
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On May 03 2012 05:38 Clawtrocity wrote: There is nothing fallacious about my claim. You have yet to provide any reasonable justification for why you role claimed medic and encouraged the detective to reveal him/herself. Slippery slope fallacy This is not a slippery slope. It is an explicit win condition of the game. You are scum. All scum must be voted off for the town to win (unless they decide to suicide). You must be voted off or the town cannot win. There is no appeal to authority. There is me asking a question and then me making a contingent statement based on a presumed answer to that question. I am not protecting you. I am trying to get you voted off. You are either scum or you are trolling this game in a manner that is directly hurting our town making you as bad as scum. | ||
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On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. We stand to gain more information that way than by any day 1 lynch that is as rash as their role-claims. Why: + Show Spoiler + Just to put it out there: the setup could hypothetically be 2 medics as the towns power roles. In spite of that, we all seem to agree is likely that at least one of the current medic claims is a lie. (Note that both could be lies.) What do we learn by lynching Claw today? If he flips Medic, then in all likelihood we either see Gummy killed tonight or lynched tomorrow. If Gummy then flips Medic, the town is doomed. If Gummy then flips town, we learn nothing and are in a bad position. If Gummy flips Mafia, then we are in a good position. If we lynch Claw today and he flips Townie? Then again, the town and any vigilante will be compelled to kill Gummy. If Claw flips Mafia, then we cheer and Gummy is trusted but also likely is killed by mafia. Lynching Tofu today produces similar scenarios. Lynching Gummy as Matriach suggests? Well, if Gummy flipped Town then we would have to kill Claw. If Gummy flipped Mafia, then we would trust Claw. But note, that if Gummy dies tonight, we still either kill Claw or have him confirmed on Day 2. If Claw dies tonight, then if he is town we turn against Gummy. If Claw dies tonight and flips Mafia, or if Claw doesn't die, then we can lynch him on Day 2. If Tofu dies tonight and flips Town, we lynch Claw. Now if Gummy is town, the Mafia will be more likely to kill him than Claw. So we stand to confirm or condemn one of Gummy, Claw, or Tofu based on whichever one of them dies. How can the Mafia not kill one of them if all 3 have claimed blue roles? If none of the 3 die and a random townie dies? Then all 3 have to prove their claims on Day 2 and if Tofu gives us a report we let him live for another day, while we either lynch who he claims is red or if his report greens someone then we lynch the least trusted Medic-claimee hoping the medic lives and Tofu provides a second report on Day 3. If these outcomes sound flawed, please let me know. Look, Gummy is playing aggressive, loud, and loose. I understand the logic behind his vote on Claw. But I remain unconvinced that we, today, can be 99% certain Claw is Mafia, or that Claw and Tofu are mafia colluding on their claims. Why would, with only 2 players, the mafia claim to be blue. There is no rational scenario in which the town doesn't lynch someone who claims blue and then lives for another 2 nights. The role claims draw far too much attention and responsibility upon them, especially DT, to be a good rational mafia strategy plan. Mafia want to blend in by 'nodding with the town' not being 'nodded at'. If they indeed turn out to be mafia, they have already lost even if we don't lynch one today. If, however, more likely they are Town either being honest or vanilla townie trying to confuse mafia, we only hurt ourselves by mislynching one of them on Day 1. Gummy, imo, really hurt himself and, if he is town, the town by making that ultimatum threat. It's hard to trust someone willing to quit on us. It's also hard to keep up with someone who posts so much. You could form just as, if not more so, convincing an argument without spamming every thought you have. Tofu, whether he's a bad DT or a bad mafia, clearly seemed to believe there would be at least 3 blue roles, which is fairly unlikely when thinking about balance. (At the same time, I'd like to point out to anyone studying paschl's list of previous setups, that there is nothing statistically informative about 6 data points.) dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts. Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet. Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: + Show Spoiler + On May 01 2012 09:04 Ange777 wrote: Ok, I am a townie. But: Isn't it better to abstain from any roleclaiming? Otherwise isn't it easier to identify the special roles? Furthermore scum could just claim to be regular townies and right now we have no way to prove anything. I would have thought claiming to be a townie is just as suspicious as saying nothing about it but hey, I don't have any experience in this game On May 01 2012 09:12 Ange777 wrote: But then we will just have 9 people claiming to be townie. I don't understand what kind of information you will get from that. On May 03 2012 01:27 Ange777 wrote: 2) Claw is the real medic and you are desperate to kill him before someone reveals you as scum. Although this logic is flawed as everbody would blame you if Claw flipped blue. Or you are playing a huge mindgame and already calculated that possibility? God, this is just soo confusing ... Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"? paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime). As I don't feel I can say 99% someone is mafia, I feel no lynch day 1 is better for us than a mislynch. How often have you seen a Day 1 lynch be mafia and not mislynch? Mafia want us to help them by mislynching the first couple days, why would the mafia draw attention to themselves or lie on day 1 and potentially get caught in the noose's spotlight? ##Vote: No Lynch So you're saying "Ok, I agree with your logic on Claw but I don't want to vote him off because he's incriminated himself anyway." You end up in the same situation tomorrow as today. Only you're a townie down. As Ange said, when an obvious Mafia is on the table, you lynch him. You do not wait to lynch him especially when the suspicion of him is public. I don't think anything Claw has said in the last few pages has made anything approaching sense. Also, I post a lot because I make long posts with a lot of info. Then I realize I can't edit, so I make amendments. This is how no-edit forum mafia works.... | ||
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1.) I will be targeted tonight by the Mafia unless they are retarded. It is literally a dominant strategy in expectations at this point to target me. So long as the Mafia believe my extremely obvious role claim, there is no mind game to be played here. It's not like I want to die tonight, but any of you can run through the calculations. 2.) Since I am extremely confident in Claw's being scum, and we cannot win unless we vote off all scum, we need to vote off Claw. If we do not vote off Claw, we will be in the same position tomorrow, with one fewer townie with which to vote of Claw. Once you have identified scum and that scum knows he has been identified (look how Claw is melting down) you need to vote him off. It is a dominant strategy. To vote him off now is strictly better than voting him off tomorrow. You will not have my vote tomorrow because I will be dead. You will not gain any information by not voting him off. You will merely be in the same situation tomorrow with one fewer townie and in all likelihood one fewer power role. If by some retarded coincidence I end up alive tomorrow, there will be no reason for me to vote for anybody except Claw. Unless you are willing to vote off Claw, I am just as well off voting no lynch for the duration of the game until claw is voted off or scum win. This is hardly even a threat. Assuming some positive utility (say 1) for lynching a mafia and a negative utility (say -1) for mislynching, voting for Claw is a utility of 1 - epsilon. Voting for anybody else is 1/7(chance of hitting a mafia at random less Claw and myself) - 6/7(chance of hitting a townie at random less claw and myself) = -5/7. Voting for a no lynch is trivially 0. So obviously, I either vote Claw or no lynch. 3.) I will not save you if you are not voting in my favor: a.) Since somebody has to die, I would prefer the person who gets killed during the night to more likely be somebody who is not able or willing to follow my reasoning. Obviously I believe in my own reasoning enough to prefer that someone who shares my reasoning survive to the following day. b.) I am the person who will die tonight so who I cast my vote to save doesn't matter. So my ultimatum is simply, as I claimed, a computation simplifier. Choose between me and claw. If you think about it, since I'm going to die tonight anyway with a very high probability, you're choosing between getting rid of a very small fraction of me or a very large fraction of claw. The choice is so obvious I want to scream. Here's some logic you guys might comprehend. Get Rid Of Claw. It spells out GROC. Groc is pronounced like Grok which is German for comprehend. Do you guys comprehend? Claw: That's a logical fallacy. My response: No shit, sherlock. | ||
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On May 03 2012 07:06 Mattchew wrote: Votecount: Clawtrocity (2) - AcesRequiem, Gummy gummy (2)- matriach, clawtrosity Matriarch (1)- dahdum dahdum (1)- paschl No-Lynch (1) - DeMorcerf With 9 Alive its 5 to lynch, currently no one is set to be lynch. Please PM me or Mattchew if you see any mistakes. A little under 2 hours until the voting deadline Unless somebody changes their vote and the two latecomers vote Claw, you guys are a very suicidal town. | ||
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DO PEOPLE REALLY NOT UNDERSTAND HOW MAJORITY VOTING GAMES WORK!?!??!?!!? YOU ARE THROWING YOUR VOTE AWAY UNLESS YOUR VOTE IS GOING TOWARD THE MAJORITY!!!!!!!!!!!!!! | ||
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Why would you force other people to claim their role before that if youre the medic? Since I have nonpublic information, I can discern information from role claims that others might not. I've already explained the reason behind putting pressure on people. Forcing people to do things they are not comfortable doing is the easiest way to get them to take belief-revealing actions. How does my play not make sense. Walk through the sequence I took through my shoes, taking one step at a time. Given the information I took in between posts and given the information I had being the medic, I've acted in a consistent manner the whole way through. In conclusion, my theory is optimal and your arguments are based on nothing. | ||
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On May 03 2012 07:25 paschl wrote: So there is no chance claw makes the medic claim as a vanilla towny? There is no belief for which that play would be optimal except if he was scum. Think it through and this conclusion is obvious. | ||
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On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack. I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics. The best part is the Mafia won't attack me because they'll think I'm a vanilla townie trying to bite the bullet for the town. If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him. We really just need to keep the detective alive for as long as possible because with so many non-power roles we'll be powerless eventually. I'd be wary of Gummy for being so aggressive so early on. He's most likely trying to accuse other people so if anyone tries to point fingers at him he can claim that they're protecting the person he's pressuring. That's a pretty shady tatic and with his confindence in himself going to his head he might be trouble. | ||
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On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack. I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics. The best part is the Mafia won't attack me because they'll think I'm a vanilla townie trying to bite the bullet for the town. If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him. We really just need to keep the detective alive for as long as possible because with so many non-power roles we'll be powerless eventually. I'd be wary of Gummy for being so aggressive so early on. He's most likely trying to accuse other people so if anyone tries to point fingers at him he can claim that they're protecting the person he's pressuring. That's a pretty shady tatic and with his confindence in himself going to his head he might be trouble. | ||
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APPEARING SCUMMY ONLY GETS YOU TARGETED IN DAY PLAY. YOU GET NO ADVANTAGE FOR APPEARING SCUMMY EVER. | ||
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On May 03 2012 07:37 paschl wrote: Yes, there definitively is. Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt? A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases. So you're saying that you can trick the detective into wasting a turn on you by pretending to be scum. This helps the town how? | ||
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I'm not saying it makes a whole lot of sense for scum to act scummy. I'm saying that there is only one conclusion we can draw from his being scummy. That he is scum. | ||
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On May 03 2012 07:40 FirmTofu wrote: Gummy, I think I know what you're doing. Let it be known to posterity that I think its a terrible strategy. We aren't going to have a lynch today. I think both Claw and Gummy are town, and no one else has enough evidence on top of them for me to even consider lynching them. Get over yourself Gummy. There is no way you can deduce everyone's alignment from a handful of Day 1 posts. Let's wait a day and see if we get some REAL information. ##vote: No Lynch YOU WILL BE IN THE SAME SITUATION TOMORROW AS YOU WILL BE IN TODAY WITH ONE FEWER TOWNIE. What information do you hope to gain? Let's say you're the detective. You live the night anyway and nobody's voting you off today. You get the night to make your detection anyway. From everybody else's perspective 0 information was gained, since nobody can confirm that you're the detective. The Mafia will not reveal anything by killing one of their own. CLAW HAS ALL BUT SAID "I AM SCUM" AND YOU GUYS REFUSE TO VOTE HIM. WHAT KIND OF "EVIDENCE" ARE YOU GUYS LOOKING FOR?!?!?! | ||
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On May 03 2012 07:43 Clawtrocity wrote: By drawing attention in the daychat I'm being pressured into being lynched. That means killing me at night is stupid because I'll be killed during the day time. It's just as simple as not lynching people who act scummy on purpose and you succeed. No offense to you, but I do hope you're the one that gets shot because you're not the real medic so losing a vanilla townie isn't so bad. I have to heal Tofu just in case they try to pull any fishy things where they think I'm trying to make them target you so I can heal you at night. You're almost having a panic attack in the middle of the day just because people don't see something the way you see it. Calm down and look at the situation with open eyes. Look at this guy changing his story again... He keeps further incriminating himself. AND WHY YOU NO UNDERSTAND MATHS?!?!?!??!! | ||
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On May 03 2012 07:49 Clawtrocity wrote: Just out of curiosity Gummy, have you played SC2 Mafia? The strategy you're employing works perfectly there. The one where you just spam your opinion until everyone follows your word. You don't address any points. You misapply randomly taken names of logical fallacies you ripped from wikipedia. Then you change your story. Then you say something nonsensical. Then people defend you for being TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM. Then you change your story again. | ||
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On May 03 2012 07:43 Clawtrocity wrote: By drawing attention in the daychat I'm being pressured into being lynched. That means killing me at night is stupid because I'll be killed during the day time. It's just as simple as not lynching people who act scummy on purpose and you succeed. No offense to you, but I do hope you're the one that gets shot because you're not the real medic so losing a vanilla townie isn't so bad. I have to heal Tofu just in case they try to pull any fishy things where they think I'm trying to make them target you so I can heal you at night. You're almost having a panic attack in the middle of the day just because people don't see something the way you see it. Calm down and look at the situation with open eyes. Pick any proposed equilibrium path of beliefs. Say that the mafia believe that the townspeople believe that you are too scummy to be scum. You will still get targeted at night. Say that the mafia believe that the townspeople believe that you are not too scummy to be scum. You will still get targeted at night. No equilibrium path of beliefs leads "too scummy to be scum" to be a valid strategy. I don't know why I even need to explain this. | ||
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On May 03 2012 07:43 paschl wrote: Youre not getting what i mean by too scumy to be scum. We have this thing on our forum where outed scum post lolcats when theyre getting lynched as to give nothing away. Its a tradition in the forum. Now someone goes ahead and makes his first post of the game a lolcat. What scum would ever do that? So you could assume he is a towny because a towny is more likely to just go ahead and post it. Similarly ive seen scum post screenshots of something with a seemingly random aim window called "scumchat" open. You are appealing to an arbitrary psychological conjecture based on anecdotal evidence of people uniformly playing suboptimally. What are you trying to argue. That he is not scum, but that he is trolling? | ||
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On May 03 2012 07:54 dahdum wrote: I too suspect Claw, but I don't think we gain enough information from a lynch to overcome the chance he's Town. If we gain no matter what he reveals, I can see it being worthwhile. What do we gain by lynching claw now? a) Claw reveals Medic: We lose a medic. b) Claw reveals Scum: Win. c) Claw reveals VT: Gummy is medic, mafia very likely kills him. 2 of those scenarios are very bad for us, and I don't think we should take the risk. You are giving each of these scenarios equal weight as though you just appeared in this thread and haven't read anything Claw has posted... or any of my previous 5 posts. b.) is Much more likely than the other two. and a.) is an epsilon probability. You are also overstating the marginal impact of case c.) . I am dead anyway tonight. The Mafia would be insane not to kill me regardless of Claw's status. | ||
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On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote: I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well. That one color won't be of any use since the Mafia won't kill themselves. | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:01 paschl wrote: You could also call it experience but ok. And i said it before, he could be a towny just trying to take a bullet for a blue role. I said before that its an easy play for scum but the mafia doesnt know the roles either. So its not a bad play for a towny to claim medic on day1 in this setup. Especially since theyre not gonna find the detective on n1 (ok the could randomly hit him). Again, how many actual games of werewolf have you played before? So now you don't think he's too scummy to be scum. | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote: This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. Quote the nonsense please. Just because something is in all caps and bold doesn't make it nonsense. I get the feeling that at least 4 of our players aren't reading. YOU GUYS COME ON BOLDED CAPITALIZED TEXT WITH THE TONE OF ANGER IS EASIER TO PICK OUT of a wall of text. | ||
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You're not acknowledging or rebutting my claims. You are making an orthogonal claim that you are experienced and that you have experienced such play. Is it really too hard to say something like "link me to a source" or "I don't follow your logic, could you try to explain in a way that uses less jargon?" I'm a random person on the internet with extensive training in game theory. You don't have to "win" an argument with me. I am a townie and I want to win. You can "win" your argument with me by changing your vote to Claw. | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote: This. All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions. As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check. You say "This." yet you seem to entirely disagree with the text you quoted. This makes me doubt your reading comprehension abilities or your allegiance. | ||
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That doesn't even make sense. I've used that phrase multiple times before. I make sure to prefix the word "townie" with the modifier "Vanilla" for disambiguation. | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:11 Gummy wrote: Just for evidence, here's a link to my word choice. ctrl-f "townie" | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:12 paschl wrote: Dude i study computer science, ive posted on english messaged boards for the better part of 13 years. I understand your theory i just dont think its applicable in a game with this much imperfect information. You just answered my post by turning words i never used around to jump at me. You're still making irrelevant points. I'm glad you've posted on "english messaged boards" for the better part of 13 years. If you understood my theory you would know that it was particularly devised specifically for dynamic games of imperfect information. And game theory and computer science have intersections in incentive compatibility and mechanism design, but not much else. I know because I double major in these two fields. | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:14 Gummy wrote: You're still making irrelevant points. I'm glad you've posted on "english messaged boards" for the better part of 13 years. If you understood my theory you would know that it was particularly devised specifically for dynamic games of imperfect information. And game theory and computer science have intersections in incentive compatibility and mechanism design, but not much else. I know because I double major in these two fields. See link if you are interested in learning more. | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:23 paschl wrote: ##VOTE: Gummy pure spitevote. id rather kill the medic than go on and play day2 with an obnoxiously arogant, self centered game theory whiz who thinks he is a genius. That's grounds for a modkill, correct? | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:26 paschl wrote: god i hope so. If you're going to vote for me, then do so not out of spite and make up a reason. People call me childish, but at every point in the game my actions have been consistent with the objective of the town's eventual victory. Don't blatantly make a vote for me and then admit to it being out of spite. | ||
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None of your evidence includes any of my painstakingly crafted game theoretic models. | ||
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I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die. 1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept. Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims. No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum. Evidence for Claw being scum: -Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it. -Gummy thinks Claw is scum. -Gummy has used careful and stepwise game theoretic logic that you can freely examine to further the claim that Claw's play is not consistent with any townie objective. Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie: -Claw is a troll. Evidence for Claw being medic: -Claw claimed medic. Conclusion: We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong. Oops. Reposting previous post without spoilers so you can see my asinine insertion. | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:33 FirmTofu wrote: That's probably because I see no reason to apply your painstakingly crafted game theoretic models to this game. This is a game that is dependent more on psychology than anything else. As you said, it is a game of limited information and we should acknowledge that. I see no reason to believe you can model the individual psychologies of all players with your extensive knowledge of game theory. Bragging about your major isn't exactly helping your case. I cannot model the individual psychologies. I can make assumptions like "Townspeople want to win by eliminating Mafia" and "Mafia want to win by eliminating Townspeople." From there I can make assumptions such as "If a townie wants to win, he or she will take actions that should maximize the probability of winning" and vice versa. If you think that this type of modeling is outside the realm of game theory, please see the link I posted above. The notation and terminology used is a little excessive, but the insights are very well-rooted in common sense. | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:36 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't see how being medic and claiming medic hurt my chances of winning when the mafia are quite aware of a thing called WIFOM. By virtue of me claiming medic they don't think I'm medic at all and I'm allowed to heal whomever I please. Here's a simplified model. Mafia have no other information to work with than your claim. I assume they are expectation maximizing. Presume they believe you have a 50/50 chance of telling the truth. Your chance of being the medic from their perspective is now 50%. This is higher than the 1/7 chance you had before (assuming nobody got voted off in day play). It would be a dominant strategy for them to target you. Fortunately, you are not a medic and, as scum,you will be the one targeting me. And since nobody is willing to vote you off, I sincerely hope you follow your own twisted suboptimal logic and invent some WIFOM excuse for not lynching me. | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:39 FirmTofu wrote: See, the main reason I don't think your game theoretic models apply to this game is because I am a town detective and your game theoretic models directly oppose this fact. Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me? So you reveal Detective after medic reveals himself with full knowledge that medic cannot protect himself. How would this even be reasonable play if the medic could protect himself? I've already explained this several times and you have yet to come up with a valid answer as to why you would reveal yourself following Claw's revelation unless you two communicated and planned it ahead of time. Tell us what your belief was that made you think in that moment that claiming detective was a wise thing to do. | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:43 FirmTofu wrote: Additionally, you seem to distance your activities from ours as if you are somehow confirmed town and no one should doubt your alignment. Have you tried applying your game theory models to yourself? You seem to be voting Claw after doing the exact same thing you said was scummy about him: claiming medic. At least I am consistent in my actions. I think both you and Claw are town. However, you are not. If Slaw is scum by your logic, then you must be scum as well. You quite literally pulled the exact same gambit he did. I've run through this example many times already, but for the sake of dumb hope I'll do it again. My revelation of medic was chiefly to call out Claw's 100% scummy behavior with the anticipation that getting rid of a scum on day 1 in exchange for medic on night 1 is a good trade. It IS a good trade. There's nothing inconsistent about that. Initially claiming vanilla townie is a valid strategy regardless of role or alignment. There's nothing inconsistent about that. Where are you claiming inconsistencies? | ||
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On May 03 2012 08:52 FirmTofu wrote: My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night. If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results. If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward. If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about. Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it. Your analysis is wrong on at least 2 levels. 1.) Once Claw has claimed medic, he has made himself the single target (if he is not scum). You gain nothing by revealing except for a certain turn 2 death. Assuming rational night play by Mafia, you would've had a 1/6 chance of dying night 2. Now you have a 1 in 1 chance of dying night 2, since the medic is dead. 2.) If Claw flips scum, as I say he will, you are screwed because I am the medic and I will be killed tonight. Even if I am foolish enough to use my save on you, you will still die on night 2. | ||
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Claw and Tofu have made quite a case against themselves with their nonsense. Whatevz. | ||
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Thanks again all of you! <3 | ||
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On May 03 2012 09:58 Matriarch wrote: Does it matter that I am female? Yes! If at some point in the future there are gene splicing therapies an my Y-chromosome somehow gets corrupted, I will know not to ask you for a DNA transplant. =3 | ||
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If you disagree with any point I have made, then contest it. I understand I have made many pages worth of arguments. But most of those arguments can be taken in the context of a few blocks of posts. If you don't have time to read them, frankly tell me tl;dr. If I use terminology that doesn't make sense, please ask me to explain. It is not in the best interest of the town going forward to cast arguments you don't understand as nonsensical unless you can provide evidence supporting its nonsensicality. 1 hour left to live.... What's taking you so long, claw? | ||
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On May 04 2012 11:05 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't understand how I'm playing bad. I've stuck with my role claim and pointed out all the logical fallacies Gummy is using to try and discredit me. You really don't know what a logical fallacy is. | ||
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My explanation is that claw has enough confidence in his explanation of his illogical behavior to waste a night kill to, instead of kill me, attempt to discredit me. My post history stands. Mafia did not make the right play tonight, but I will let that be their problem ^_^ | ||
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Logical deduction isn't the engine for this particular game, so I'm going to sit back and observe. Maybe I'll have a better time with forum Mafia next game. | ||
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##Vote: No Lynch | ||
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On May 05 2012 01:20 Gummy wrote: ##Unvote: Clawtrocity ##Vote: No Lynch I'll change back to Claw if it will help him get a majority. | ||
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On May 05 2012 03:11 dahdum wrote: So you'll happily bandwagon but not initiate his vote? I don't think you can have it both ways. Pretty sure I can. | ||
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Someone else can get the train rolling today. | ||
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Now: 6 + 2 Today after mislynch: 5 + 2 Tomorrow after night: 4 + 2 Day after: Mislynch 3 + 2 Night after -> Loss. You can afford 2 more mislynches at this point (including today). There isn't a case for dahdum. There is all too strong a case for claw, tofu, or even me. Let's presume we are wrong today. Mafia will be a 3rd of the town, and given the lack of determination on the part of townspeople to find the scum..... We are in trouble. | ||
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It seems that FirmTofu and Clawtrocity, regardless of their alignment, aren't so much playing to win as playing to be unpredictable and to troll. That kind of behavior can only hurt the town. You can't confuse the mafia by being trolly since the mafia know who you are. And since the mafia read the same thing on the forum as everybody else, consistent assessments will result in consistent actions. Without getting too formal.... We say that an assessment of a situation is consistent if what you think about it is what other people think that you think about it. If I think I'm fat, but nobody else thinks that I think I'm fat, then my initial assessment was consistent. In particular, we are interested in how actions affect what the town thinks, and affect what the mafia thinks that the town thinks. Let's walk through some cases Case 1: You troll hard enough so that the townspeople think you're mafia, then you have trolled enough for the mafia to think that the townspeople think that you're mafia. This only hurts the town because if the townspeople genuinely think that you're mafia, you only get lynched during day play. Case 2: You troll just hard enough so that the townspeople don't think you're mafia, but that the mafia mistakenly think the townspeople think you're mafia. This is beneficial, but this is what you would call an "inconsistent" assessment. Since Mafia have access to a superset of information, regarding alignments, as the townies during day play, it is illogical to think that mafia think that the town believes something it doesn't. <- Lots of I think that he thinks, but if you read that last sentence a few times it should be pretty clear. Case 3: You troll hard enough so the townspeople think you're mafia, but the mafia mistakenly think the townspeople think you're mafia. This is a double-edged bad situation. You get yourself voted off in day play, and just to be sure, you haven't reduced the probability of your being targeted in night play. Case 4: You don't troll enough to make the townspeople think you're mafia, and the mafia know that you haven't trolled enough to make the townspeople think you're mafia. This is the only consistent assessment that doesn't hurt the town. Conclusions: Illogical, trolly, or generally scummy behavior should be taken as an indicator of being scum. Dahdum, Aces, and Matriarch, and to a lesser degree Ange, are more or less inactive. They haven't said anything of import in one way or the other. Basically only echoing previously posted sentiment or posting one off comments without having those comments materialize into legitimate accusations or votes. There is really no point in lynching any of them at this stage in the game when it is clear that lynching one of the three troublemakers (me, tofu, or claw) will actually reveal information, even if we flip a VT. If I flip medic, you know my accusations of Claw have been unfounded. If Claw flips anything other than medic, you know my accusations of Claw have been right on. My case against claw has been heavily documented and you can see it by using the filter command on my posts or his. I'd rather not get into that again. Tofu, on the other hand, has made an interesting play. He illogically claimed detective and then apparently illogically used his vote on an inactive, which he knew would 90%+ chance yield no information. If, as he claimed, he was afraid of wasting his check on claw or me, he could've used it on Demorcef or Paschl, who actually have taken stances that alignments might shed light on. And this fear, again, was based on the assumption of there being a godfather or framer who would be lucky enough to target the same person he did (in the case of a framer) or just a 1/9 chance of him accidentally hitting a godfather. Given that a check on me or claw would be gamebreaking, and given that his chance of being roleblocked was significantly less than 50% assuming any reasonable belief about the presence of either a Godfather or Framer and the distribution of the Framer's choices, his play was (however you look at it) suboptimal. + Show Spoiler [proof of suboptimality] + Let's say he believes that, as in each of the previous 11 games, that there has been 1 roleblocker for the Mafia and that there was a p probability that that roleblocker was a framer and a 1-p probability that the roleblocker was a Godfather. Presume that his probability of being blocked conditional on there being a godfather was 1/9. Presume that his probability of being blocked conditional on their being a framer was less than or equal to 50% (which is a minimax safe strategy in a symmetric guessing game achieved by randomly choosing me or claw). Then, his probability of being roleblocked was p*(1/2) + (1-p)*(1/9), which we can see is maximized (through first order conditions and resulting corner case) where p = 1. Therefore, his probability of being role blocked in the very worst case was 50%. If, however, he more reasonably believed that the chance of a framer or a Godfather was equal (p=1/2) then his probability of being blocked was only 5/18. | ||
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I guess in a newbie game, it's a weaker argument than it might be otherwise. I guess the best way to address suboptimal play is with more suboptimal play. Whatever. Vote me off and make what you will of my medic flip ##Unvote: No Lynch ##Vote: Gummy It's probably better than a no lynch at this point since this actually gives you guys information you can trust without having to work through deduction or math, and since you guys don't seem to have the balls to make reasonable votes on candidates who might actually get a majority. ^_^ GL HF friends! | ||
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##vote:clawtrocity | ||
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##vote:dahdum | ||
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GL HF | ||
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Also, the people who jumped on the bandwagon last minute even after Claw's mistaken post with host clarification, in a normal game, should be considered seriously suspect. But let's be real now. This isn't a normal game. | ||
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Matriarch and aces, I think. | ||
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inb4 shitstorm. | ||
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This is a picture of my beautiful daughter. + Show Spoiler + My wonderful wife of 18 years. + Show Spoiler + I'm so sorry I was late on last week's protection fees. Business at the diner just hasn't been good lately, but with the tourist season approaching, I know I'll make good in the coming month. Just please, give me some more time. Don't leave my beautiful daughter fatherless and her mother all alone in this cold, cruel town. Spare me, that is all I ask. | ||
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I hope you can understand. | ||
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##Vote: Dahdum Just so you know, if yo're wrong about me, you guys automatically lose. | ||
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##Unvote: Dahdum ##Vote: FirmTofu | ||
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1.) I pressured everybody to role claim to see if people would do something stupid. Claw and Tofu made questionable role claims. 2.) I put additional pressure on Claw by counter-revealing to see how he would react. Instead of backing down immediately in a reasonable manner or making some kind of convincing story, he just kept changing his story with, looking back, the probable intention to be as confusing as possible so as to somehow avoid getting targeted in night play. And just to be unpredictable and to troll. 3.) Night 1, Demorcef is lynched, because scum was genuinely confused by the accusations between me and Claw, somehow. 4.) Day 2, Claw gets lynched. I had all the reason going into the lynch to give him the boot seeing as his playstyle was consistent with either scum or a troll. Then at the last second he makes a goodbye post (with 30 minutes to go) that appeared to be a legit explanation that he never wanted to make during the course of the game. I felt full of anguish, but at that moment I knew I was wrong about his being scum and right about him being a troll. I changed my vote to no lynch in a last ditch effort to save him, but Paschl changed his vote to lynch second before he was to be saved. 5.) Night 2, I start spewing nonsense about how I'm Mafia so as to save myself for one more night. You will see how this is consistent if you go back and read over my post about why Claw's and Tofu's play were suspect. In particular, night play trolling is a proper example of case 1. The implications of it during night play are different, however, since you still get the chance to make a case for yourself, as I am now, during day play. Anyway, Matriarch gets killed. 6.) Day 3, Tofu puts is vote on me after claiming to be detective and having confirmed my guilt as Mafia. Matriarch just flipped as a VT, but Tofu already knew, assuming he was correct in being a detective. Therefore, Tofu, having lied about my alignment but having enough confidence to target Matriarch instead of one of the other inactives who he had not laid claim to, could only be operating under the certainty that Matriarch was indeed VT. Therefore, FirmTofu, given my information, can only be a Mafia Rolecop. I suspect he did use his check on me last night and he knows that I am medic. This also gives an explanation as to why he seemingly wasted a check on matriarch the night before. He knew for a fact that neither Claw nor I were scum, but he already knew that at least one of us was medic. Subsequently, he just used his check arbitrarily on the remaining townspeople to get information that might be more useful. Suggested Course of action 1.) Now is the time to make counter claims. If I (or any VT) gets lynched today, it is an autoloss. (Since Tofu knows that I am medic, he will just target me tonight for the victory since I cannot protect myself). Everybody should reveal their role today, since we lose automatically on a mislynch and nolynch leads to 2/5 scum without medic, which strongly, strongly favors mafia. 2.) DO NOT vote me. If you vote me you lose. Plain and simple. Do not be swayed by peer pressure at this stage in the game. Mafia have two votes, and they will very likely use them together so as to increase their chance of immediate victory. That is not to say that you should clear people based on who they vote for. Use your own reasoning. Take a good 5 minutes and think it over before you vote. 3.) We must get a majority or we will have an automatic no lynch, which is terrible for the reasons described above. You need to stay active and make sure that your vote counts today. Think before you vote. In particular filter through the post history of the person you are considering to vote for and make sure you can point to incriminating evidence in their posts. Tofu has such incriminating, unexplained/mis-explained action. I do not. His accusation of me a few posts up doesn't actually contain any evidence incriminating me. His argument can be reduced to simply saying "I found out that he's mafia. Given that he's mafia, he screwed up in his play." Nowhere does he say "This is why Gummy is Mafia." If you presume that I'm actually the medic, as I am, you can see that none of his accusations carry the slightest weight. 4.) A point of caution . Tofu may actually be bad and there might be a framer who targeted me last night. Then lynching him would lead to the same instant defeat. HOWEVER, this explanation is contingent on there being a framer, which given the random distribution of role assignment observed in previous games, is less than 1/2. A vote on tofu, then, is a gamble with winning expectation, but very high variance. Unfortunately, I can't say that there exists another vote, with the information I have, with positive expectation REGARDLESS of variance. 5.) Keep your eye on Paschl . He may be using feigned short temper to mask scummy play as emotionally influenced play. His last-minute vote-change to Claw after I, the person who had led the vendetta against Claw withdrew my vote, is hugely suspect. | ||
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On May 07 2012 18:37 FirmTofu wrote: I'd just like to shed some light on what Gummy did. It all started when Claw claimed medic and I claimed Detective right afterwards. Gummy did not want to attack into either of the two roles because the risk of a heal going through was too great. He saw my plan's potential and had to figure out some way to discredit it(and me) before it could come to fruition. Here's the critical part. He saw a hole in my logic and by extension in Claw's logic that he could exploit IF AND ONLY IF he could convince everyone that the mafia were going to play optimally. He used his game theory calculations as a veil to cover up the fact that he was basing everything on this primary underlying assumption--Mafia would act in their best possible interest. But would mafia really always act in their best possible interest, or would they be swayed by emotions and what they perceive the actions of others to be? Is this a numbers game, as Gummy asserts, or it is more psychological? I'll be the first to admit it. Gummy's logic wasn't fabricated. The problem was the underlying assumption. The assumption that should not have been assumed because the mafia: 1) May know anything about game theory (Information deficiency) 2) Could be Gummy himself, which he failed to acknowledge as a possibility. Which only supports my position as being medic 3) May choose their actions based upon suboptimal play because of WIFOM. If Gummy can predict optimal play, then supoptimal play BECOMES optimal, does it not? Suboptimal play does NOT become optimal even under WIFOM. If there is a mixed strategy solution, which in pretending to be Mafia during day play does not contain No mafia wants their night actions predicted by a town member, and if they are forced to play suboptimally to circumvent that, they that suboptimal play becomes optimal because it turns into the best course of action. Being unpredictable is only sometimes helpful. You play to maximize expectation. A medic cannot save himself, and the probability of a second save is less than 50%. A kill on me first night, assuming Claw was scum, would've been optimal regardless of predictability. Since he was not scum and merely trolling, my explanation for why I was the optimal target for mafia first night was correct. This provides no evidence that I am Mafia. So why did Gummy claim medic? A short-sighted plan for a new guy who thinks he knows everything there is to know about mafia. He wanted to prove to everyone on this site that he was a force to be reckoned with and his deceptive skills in the art of persuasion were top-notch. A pretentious douchebag? Perhaps. I wouldn't go that far. I'd say he was looking to prove himself and made a critical blunder that overlooked basic logic in favor of making a spectacle of himself. For all his knowledge of game theory, he couldn't run run a simple cost-benefit analysis to predict the repercussions of his actions. What should have gone through Gummy's brain on Day 1: + Show Spoiler + If I claim medic and get Claw lynched... what will people think of me? He will either flip vanilla townie or medic and both of those flips would make me look bad. If he flips vanilla townie, I might be able to get out of a lynch, but if he flips medic, I'm screwed. How sure am I that this guy is a medic? Is he worth a lynch if he isn't? But what's the point? Either way I end up looking bad for no real gains for my team! Yeah, I might be able to get a medic lynched, but that would be at the cost of my own life! Conclusion: I should NOT claim medic and try to get Clawtrocity lynched. There is no accusation until here. I am assumed to be Mafia and then this logic furthers the point that my play so far would have been highly suboptimal if I were scum. Nowhere does he give any evidence that I am scum. Remember that flip-flop thing he did on Day 1? That was your scum tell. I initially didn't believe it because I thought it was too obvious, and Gummy seemed like an intelligent guy, but that was my mistake. That was not a scum tell. This is a medic tell. That was entirely consistent with getting rid of a Mafia. As I had said many times before, I thought of this action as a separating equilibrium. If you filter through my post history you will see me saying over and over again "a medic for a scum is a good trade." If you're going to question my intelligence, at least pick an issue I didn't explicitly already account for. I thought Gummy was town only because I assumed that he was logical enough not to make such a serious blunder. Claiming medic as mafia on Day is poor play by any standards because it invites your eventual death. This is an obvious contradiction against what he said in the previous paragraph. There is nothing but rhetorical jujitsu here. Up until this point he has yet to give a shred of evidence that I am Mafia but has repeated that I am Mafia. This is "proof by repetition" at its most classic. Hopefully the last mafia can keep this game interesting, but we are definitely far ahead at this point. We've only lost 3 vanillas in exchange for half of the mafia team. The medic is still safely hidden so if he survives one more night without me dying, we be able to safely investigate the rest of the town and clinch victory. This analysis is mathematically incorrect, even if it assumed certainty about my alignment. 4v1 is far from a "far ahead" situation for the Mafia. 3v1 without any additional Host-provided information or medic is a worst case 67% win rate for Mafia (2/3 chance of lynching a townie. Nobody will no-lynch since no-lynch is autoloss). With medic it becomes 50/50. (1/3 chance of autowin by lynching medic. 1/3 chance of 50% guess on medic, 1/3 chance of autoloss by lynch = 50%) In conclusion, my certainty that Tofu is Mafia is strengthened from my previous post. He does not even ACKNOWLEDGE the possibility of a framer and is single-mindedly pursuing a lynch against me. Let's assume, by way of contradiction, that Tofu is actually the detective since we know that he knows that there might be a framer, he knows that there is an autoloss in play if the framer targeted me. While making a vote for me would be correct either way, making a rhetorically senseless and apparently desperate attempt to lynch me is not consistent with the probability of there being a framer.... But let's take a step back. Knowing that he would play in this way during the day, knowing that there would be a framer and that I was the most likely target of that framer, and knowing that a subsequent mislynch would be an auto-loss, Tofu should not have used his detection on me, since as long as my probability of being targeted by a framer is higher than anybody else, the probability of auto-losing as a result of his read would be strictly higher for me than for anybody else. Thus, there is a contradiction in his play. Either he is lying about his read or he is lying about being detective. I infer from this contradiction that, since both lies result in auto-losses for the town he knew that there is no framer, that he is scum. Furthermore, I infer from previous points about matriarch's lynch and previous read, that Tofu is not only scum, but a power role scum. | ||
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On May 07 2012 21:19 Gummy wrote: If anybody is hesitant about "WHAT IF WE LYNCH THE DETECTIVE" just remember that at this point in the game all mislynches are equivalent. If we happen to lynch the detective, the detective being a townie, we lose just the same as if we lynched any other innocent townie. Actually Mafia are allowed to communicate among themselves, so he might not be a power role and, instead, is just using information gained from his partner in crime. Nonetheless I believe there is a special role and that the special role is a rolecop. | ||
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On May 07 2012 20:45 Ange777 wrote: @Gummy: It's not being wrong about you but being wrong about the next lynch that would make us lose. Even without Tofu confirming you mafia, your word is the least credible. ##Vote: Gummy My guess for the last mafia is Aces or Dahdum as well. Having Gummy very actively trying to confuse town and the other mafia member somehow lurking and hidden seems like a good strategy. Tofu and Paschl are both too active and pro town for that. I suggest Tofu to check Aces or Dahdum the following night. None of them were very active in this game so it's hard to guess. I'll check their filter later once more. If Tofu can get the crucial bit of information there will be a good chance for us to win this game. Thanks for identifying yourself as the second mafia. | ||
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Your insistence, despite my very clear and repeated warnings that this is the last night make you very obviously scum. | ||
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WAKE UP ALL INACTIVES AND VOTE TOFU! | ||
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If you are wrong, you lose. | ||
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On May 08 2012 02:16 Ange777 wrote: @Gummy: During both day 1 and day 2 you strongly push for a Claw lynch. Right before the lynch you switch your vote. You explain this by analyzing his good-bye post to be town. I can explain this by saying that having him flip town would prove you wrong and scummy which you wanted to prevent. You were so sure that we would not get all 5 votes together that you pushed very hard for this case so you'd look like a very pro town player. During night 2 you claim mafia explaining that you want mafia to be convinced that we will lynch you the following day. Well I can explain you claimed mafia in order to fool us into believing your theory. Same logic. Now on day 3 you have already voted dahdum, voted Tofu, suspected Paschl, suspected me. You sure you don't want to vote for Aces as well or at least suspect him? Your behaviour fits all three of them so yeah, you are scum. Besides, there is Tofu's check on you confirming you mafia. Lynching you leaves us with 4 townies - 1 mafia. After night we will still have 3 townies - 1 mafia, of course there will be an additional lynch. There's no point in arguing my case further. It's sound, but you have the votes you need. No logic or reason will sway a stubborn heart like Paschl's. Well played you and tofu | ||
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Paschl is an awesome guy His smile is sweet, his hair is fly. Hockey is his sport of choice. His ride is cooler than a 'Royce. Paschl is my favorite man I am but his biggest fan! How very cool a man is he Oh Paschl, dear, I pray to thee Change your vote! You are the key! ( to the town's victory ) | ||
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On May 08 2012 02:16 Ange777 wrote: @Gummy: During both day 1 and day 2 you strongly push for a Claw lynch. Yes, and for good reason Right before the lynch you switch your vote. You explain this by analyzing his good-bye post to be town. Read his good-bye post one more time if you don't think that's good enough reason to risk the no-lynch I can explain this by saying that having him flip town would prove you wrong and scummy which you wanted to prevent. The only thing that would prove me wrong or scummy is if he flipped medic. My case was that either he was scum, or that he was playing in such a way that would be hurting the town. It turned out, unfortunately for us, to be the latter. You were so sure that we would not get all 5 votes together that you pushed very hard for this case so you'd look like a very pro town player. If I were Mafia, as Tofu and Ange are, I would be all in favor of getting rid of the innocent townie. Even better if it's a medic. I could say the same thing I'm saying to you now and just say "I wasn't online for his last post." But since I did not do that, you should take it to mean that I really did believe in his innocence and wanted to protect him for the sake of the town. This is called the intuitive criterion. During night 2 you claim mafia explaining that you want mafia to be convinced that we will lynch you the following day. Well I can explain you claimed mafia in order to fool us into believing your theory. Same logic. Of course it is. I wanted you to think, as you now do, that you have a clear and simple path to victory. If you got rid of a vanilla townie during the night and then used my apparent confession to lynch me during the day, the game would be the scum's. You two have basically revealed yourselves to be scum based on the apparent desperation and heavy rhetoric in your arguments, but I'm not really sure you care anymore since you have the votes you need to win, x_x. Now on day 3 you have already voted dahdum, voted Tofu, suspected Paschl, suspected me. You sure you don't want to vote for Aces as well or at least suspect him? My vote was on dahdum, before I refreshed the page and noticed Firm's accusation of me based on an alleged read (the first time I thought he was blindly echoing paschl's vote). Once I noticed he was lying about his read, and could not come up with a justifiable townsperson's rationale for lying about the read, I concluded that he must be Mafia. My accusation of you, ange, is based on your echoing his sentiment in this post, again, without any real substance. Furthermore, you posted after Claw's goodbye vote, yet you did not retract your vote as I did. Your behaviour fits all three of them so yeah, you are scum. Besides, there is Tofu's check on you confirming you mafia. Night play is a very different beast from day play. I pretended to be scum so as to have one last chance to make the case that I'm making before the town today, with the egocentric mentality that I would notice something that the inactive townies might not. Lynching you leaves us with 4 townies - 1 mafia. After night we will still have 3 townies - 1 mafia, of course there will be an additional lynch. Seeing as I'm the medic, lynching me makes it 3 townies - 2 mafia. Tonight, you win, ange! | ||
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The key reason why I'm trying to vote tofu is that a mislynch today is an autoloss. | ||
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Let's assume for a moment that Tofu is detective and Ange is a VT voting either of them off would result in a loss for the town. That said, we should be voting ENTIRELY based on whoever is MOST LIKELY to be mafia with no other consideration for what roles might be. Tofu has been lying about being detective (which can't help the townspeople) so he must be scum. While I'm reasonably confident that Ange is scum, I'd rather not take the risk of reduced certainty for no benefit. | ||
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On May 08 2012 03:20 Gummy wrote: Look here's my take on it: Let's assume for a moment that Tofu is detective and Ange is a VT voting either of them off would result in a loss for the town. That said, we should be voting ENTIRELY based on whoever is MOST LIKELY to be mafia with no other consideration for what other roles they might be. Tofu has been lying about being detective (which can't help the townspeople) so he must be scum. While I'm reasonably confident that Ange is scum, I'd rather not take the risk of reduced certainty for no benefit. | ||
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On May 08 2012 04:13 dahdum wrote: As of now, I don't have any reason to suspect Tofu is lying. He outed himself after a double medic claim, assuming he would be protected (safe assumption) and has been forthright in his checks. I didn't like the Matriarch check but the check on Gummy is logical to me. There is only a chance of a framer + a chance they frame Gummy, and mafia/town alike will use that same defense, so playing the odds sounds right to me. ##Vote: Gummy That's not correct. He outed himself after a single medic claim. I only questioned Claw's medic claim afterwards. | ||
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I think my best bet, given how strong a case I've made for myself, is just to be quiet and let you guys think it over. If you really want to win, the choice is obvious. Vote for tofu. If not, then by all means vote me off and get a big fat "I told you so" when the game ends during the night cycle. | ||
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On May 08 2012 06:00 paschl wrote: *cough*antispew*cough* Given all that you posted itt you now want to lynch the guy who claimed seer while there hasnt been a counterclaim and his peek has been killed tonight? It makes no sense. There is no detective. That's why there's no counterclaim... | ||
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On May 08 2012 06:06 Gummy wrote: There is no detective. That's why there's no counterclaim... That or the detective is one of the inactives. | ||
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On May 08 2012 06:36 FirmTofu wrote: Aces is the last mafia and Gummy is already dead by now. Votes on Gummy(Need 4 to lynch): paschl FirmTofu Ange777 dahdum GG. I didn't even read his counter-arguments because they are all Gummy flailing at town hoping to appeal to emotion. For the record, Claw's fallacies were quite on target this game. It's a shame you all killed him instead of Gummy. There was not a single appeal to emotion in any of my rebuttals. The only appeal to emotion was my poem for Paschl. | ||
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On May 08 2012 06:31 paschl wrote: Is this another mafia claim? I was talking about Tofu. And how do you even know a generator like this was used? I could just aswell see him having 5-7 finished setups and rolling a dice instead of the method wikipedia uses. How is this a mafia claim. Your proposed method also precludes double-medic. | ||
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On May 08 2012 03:14 AcesRequiem wrote: All of you could be scum, seriously. Paschl mainly because he voted for Claw when you switched your vote, Gummy. Even though you were strongly convinced Gummy was the enemy and Claw was innocent, you still voted for his lynch. I can understand this from one point, but it looks very scummy from another. FirmTofu and Gummy you two are seriously both so confusing, however, you both bring up some fine arguments. Will look into this deeper in a moment. Gummy, why are you so sure Ange777 is maffia? Stop throwing around random accusations and please explain. I'm suspecting him aswell. But why would we not go for a save lynch and lynch the lurker, being dahdum? We should've done this on day one for christ sake. ##Vote: dahdum This is a waste of a vote at this point. Since the hammer doesn't come down until 8PM EDT tomorrow, I'll just try my best to refute nonsense. Even if you believe dahdum is Mafia, tofu is the surer bet. | ||
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@paschl: Do a filter of Tofu's previous posts all the way back to when he accuses me today. Does that sound like the play of a scum or a legitimate detective. Dismissing legitimate arguments as "emotional" is a very clever way to deflect without having to say a word in response. When it comes down to logic vs. sophistry, I know you're smart enough to vote in the right direction. @dahdum: Get your ass back in this thread and read ffs. You gave a reason for your vote that was flatly incorrect. Go back to page 6 and see how that conversation played out. @aces: Your vote for dahdum is a waste. If you don't put it on tofu, this game is over. @Ange/Tofu: Continue to be impressed with your play, though I recommend actually rebutting logic with logic in any subsequent non-newbie games you play! | ||
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On May 08 2012 06:49 Mattchew wrote: Gummy there will be no betting or money involved Is there a TL Mafia leaderboard or something like that? Something to motivate people to actually care about the outcome of the game? One of the things I love about TL is that members are generally quite hardcore and play to win. At least 3/9 people in this particular game (I won't mention names, but you know who you are) have not played to win, either by way of inactivity/inattention or via intentionally suboptimal play. | ||
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Then I turned my attention to Tofu as a result of his willingness to reveal after a medic claimed. It seemed like this game was mostly townies making stupid decisions regarding role claims and votes, and me yelling at everybody, and then everybody getting mad that I was yelling at everybody. Fun game. I think my next game isn't going to be a newbie mini, though. Don't know if my heart can take this! | ||
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I incorrectly thought, then, that hunting bad play was equivalent to hunting scum. | ||
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