Newbie Mini XII

On April 30 2012 12:44 DeMorcerf wrote:
(^I will miss Awake when it goes off-air.)
Sorry to do this, but:
Millers - they are listed on the "remaining list" but not on the "Roles and Setup Info"; so are there potentially millers in this game?
Vigilante has only 1 bullet?
Hypothetically, if the Framer frames the Godfather, does he return 'Mafia'?
When a mafia dies, will we be told specifically if they were goon, framer, rolecop, etc?
Jailer protects from "1kp and roleblock" : so if the jailed player is targeted by multiple kps they would die? If they are "protected from roleblock" does that imply that their action still occurs, or is being jailed the same as being roleblocked?
Does jailing also prevent investigation by detective or rolecop; does it also prevent being framed?
What happens if Jailkeeper and Mafia Drug-Roleblocker act on each other?
Drugged players are informed; are jailed players informed?

On May 01 2012 07:04 Mattchew wrote:

wut?

On May 01 2012 08:35 paschl wrote:
Im gonna give Gummy some townie points for the opening.
Sounds honest/happy to play and he makes a promise to keep giving notes. Once per page even.
Since i think its hard to keep this up (to be clear, i dont think its possible to get the list in once per page) i think a scum would be unlikely to make the promise in the first time.

So love is all around.

On May 01 2012 08:54 Ange777 wrote:
Oh, the game started, I am really excited

Seems like I should have chosen a better name? ^^ Anyway, I am no smurf just a long time reader creating the account to try TL Mafia. I only played a similar game IRL once so I really wanted to try this.

Isn't it a bit harsh to judge the players by their names? Maybe we should talk about the name Gummy. Perhaps someone who loves gummy bears and apparentely tofu. Weird sense of taste

@Paschl: I think you can change your timezone in your profile by picking the right country.

On May 01 2012 08:59 paschl wrote:
Gummy you shouldnt do this. Nowhere did i claim vanilla townie. I might be the detective.
Youre making the job easy for the scum.
And you included the scum roles for "corresponding claims"? I hope someone signs up lol.

On May 01 2012 08:59 Gummy wrote:
List of hypothesized roles and corresponding claims:
Townies:
1 Detective
1 Medic
2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy
2 Other roles?

---

Scum
1 Framer - Ange777
1 Rolecop - Paschl

On May 01 2012 09:06 paschl wrote:
Fwiw, i read through the forum a little and there were previous 9er newbie games.
In the setup thread it lists the following possible lineups:
" 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor."

So i highly suspect this game uses one of the same systems.

And no Gummy, you usually dont win if youre wrong.

On May 01 2012 09:10 Matriarch wrote:
Yay the game started!
I'm vanilla townie and am very excited to be in my first real game.
I really hope we get some more active posters soon as so we can get rolling on this scum hunt!

On April 28 2012 04:20 Mattchew wrote:
Remember, three or fewer games played to sign up!

Player List

1.) dahdum
2.) Gummy
3.) AcesRequiem
4.) Matriarch
5.) DeMorcerf
6.) FirmTofu
7.) Clawtrocity
8.) paschl
9.) Ange777

Filter

1.)
2.)
3.)
4.)
5.)
6.)
7.)
8.)
9.)

Replacements

1.)
2.)
3.)
4.)

2/2 Mafia Remaining
?/? Goon(s)
?/? Roleblocker(s)
?/? Framer(s)
?/? Godfather(s)
?/? Role cop(s)
Mafia KP currently equals 1

7/7 Town
??/?? Vanilla Townie(s)
??/?? Detective(s)
??/?? Medic(s)
??/?? Jailkeeper(s)
??/?? Vigilante(s)

As usual, PM me for the observer QT, or if you wish to be listed as an official coach

On May 01 2012 19:55 Gummy wrote:
##Vote Clawtrocity

On May 02 2012 02:41 dahdum wrote:
I'm on PDT (-7) time, so it's morning at work for me, hence recent inactivity. LAL (Lynch All Liars) is in the best interest of town since scum want people confused and questioning, as well as the ability to lie themselves.

I can post more at lunch/evening.

On May 02 2012 03:04 paschl wrote:
Not all lies are bad. It should be called selectively lynch a lot of liars.

On May 02 2012 13:14 FirmTofu wrote:

Say what?

You're passing this off as...logic? First of all, mafia won't attack Claw unless they wish to take a HUGE risk. They'd essentially be betting that there isn't a second medic out there, just to kill a claimed medic. It's a bad idea, no matter how you look at it. They'll need all the kills they can get from night to night and risking a non-kill on someone who might get healed is a bad idea.

Your conclusion of my death by night two does not follow from your premises. Therefore, your argument is logically flawed. Yes, it is a possibility I may die on night 2, but there was a possibility of me dying on night 2 even if I didn't claim detective. I think my roleclaim is forcing the mafia's hand as we speak.

Let's assume mafia takes the enormous risk. EVEN IF Clawtrocity dies night 1, a jailkeeper is always out there to protect me.

Furthermore, the fact that you want to kill me after I claim detective is extremely scummy. Do you really think Claw and I somehow planned all this out, the roleclaim and everything, as a mafia team? It would be a very foolish long-term strategy for mafia, because if either one died for ANY reason, the other would be incriminated immediately. I am not so short-sighted.

On May 01 2012 10:38 FirmTofu wrote:
Hi! I'm very excited to start playing this game. The last TL Mafia game I played, I got lynched pretty early because day ended earlier than I expected and I hadn't said much, but this time I can assure you that I will be a lot more active.

So far, I feel like I can trust Clawtrocity and Gummy. Paschl seems a bit...meh, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Matriarch could be anything, it's hard to say. Ange777 is either scum or is very inexperienced. I've got my eye on her in particular.

I want to attempt to do something, but first I need a question answered.

Are doctors notified int he event that their heal ends up healing their target?
Is the healed person notified that they they have been attacked and healed?

I claimed detective because I see it as the best way for me to stay alive. I explained why in my second post. If you see any problems with that logic, feel free to poke holes in it and I'll be glad to answer. These ad hominem arguments aren't getting us anywhere other than, "You're scum because it's scummy to claim on day 1!" Please provide some reasoning to back up your accusations.

On May 01 2012 18:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Clawtrocity, I am going to assume your Medic claim is true and ask you to heal me.

This is a win-win situation for us and I'll tell you why.

1) If Clawtrocity is mafia, he will not want me dead because my death would imply he is not the medic. He is half of his team. My life for his is a great trade for town.
2) If Clawtrocity is medic, he will heal me and I am completely safe from death. Mafia will be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw is telling the truth.
3) If Clawtrocity is vanilla townie, mafia will still be afraid to attack me because they fear Claw to be the medic.

HOWEVER, there is one potential hole in my plan. Claw could be vanilla townie, and I may die tonight. If this occurs we will be in a very bad position going forward. I am confident that mafia will not make such a bold move because the chances of success are minimal.

On May 02 2012 15:02 Clawtrocity wrote:
That's about the best I'll get out of Gummy then. I was merely telling him he wasn't mafia to trick him into getting defensive. In a nutshell if I called him out as being mafia he'd say I was stupid and move on, but because I told him that he wasn't mafia he inadvertently got defensive and used a defensive mechanic called projection.

If you notice in his post he claims this:



How is it ok for Tofu to do it, but not okay for me to lie about my role?

I believe he's projecting himself onto me which is why he claimed Medic. He's trying to say that I'm the one that's sneaky and lying, even though he did the exact same thing. If you look hard enough you'll see projections with everything he says.

He admits that lying is ok, but condemns me for lying even though he lied as well.

So if we take into account his love to project himself onto everyone else then we can also take into account the fact that he is accusing everyone of being scum. That in combination with his slightly defensive attitude and role claim after I said he wasn't scum makes me think he's scum.

At worst he's a citizen who's skill has gone way to much to his head

At best he's a scum who'll lie and bullshit his way around until eventually getting lynched while his teammate sits in the back and does almost nothing.

##Vote Gummy

On May 02 2012 05:00 DeMorcerf wrote:
...Seriously, I feel like you are burying us with your posts Gummy. That huge poll...what? Distractions and spam = scummy, not helpful.

(dahdum is correct, and Gummy and paschl are wrong.) In this game, LAL is best. It is wrong to suggest that Town all have an incentive to lie. An honest Townie can be quite powerful. Once a Town player has lied, even with good intentions, the rest of us can no longer trust him for the remainder of the game. Hence, there is no justifiable reason for us to lie. And since we need at least one plan to stick with, we should lynch all proven liars.

Claw, I think you are overthinking things. The Mafia will not avoid hitting you because they think you are lying: they are just as likely to hit a townie by randomly hitting someone else, so their best bet is to hit you with the chance of you having been honest (since liars get lynched). A revealed DT and medic are not going to be left living after 2 nights.
The Mafia cannot and will not risk letting Tofu live any longer than that because with only 2 members they can't afford the chance he is DT and manages to finger one of them.

A stronger strategy than LAL, especially in newbie games, is LSP or Lynch Suboptimal Play. If people play strategies that are not rationalizable given their claimed set of beliefs, either they don't know what they are doing or they are lying about their beliefs.

On May 02 2012 21:30 paschl wrote:
Gummy, its a newbie game.
A lof of people are gonna make mistakes because theyre new to the game. Lynching suboptimal play in a newbie game makes 0 sense.
I feel like my head just exploded.

On May 03 2012 05:38 Clawtrocity wrote:

There is nothing fallacious about my claim. You have yet to provide any reasonable justification for why you role claimed medic and encouraged the detective to reveal him/herself.



Slippery slope fallacy

This is not a slippery slope. It is an explicit win condition of the game. You are scum. All scum must be voted off for the town to win (unless they decide to suicide). You must be voted off or the town cannot win.



There is no appeal to authority. There is me asking a question and then me making a contingent statement based on a presumed answer to that question.

On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote:
I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. We stand to gain more information that way than by any day 1 lynch that is as rash as their role-claims. Why:
+ Show Spoiler +
Look, Gummy is playing aggressive, loud, and loose. I understand the logic behind his vote on Claw. But I remain unconvinced that we, today, can be 99% certain Claw is Mafia, or that Claw and Tofu are mafia colluding on their claims. Why would, with only 2 players, the mafia claim to be blue. There is no rational scenario in which the town doesn't lynch someone who claims blue and then lives for another 2 nights. The role claims draw far too much attention and responsibility upon them, especially DT, to be a good rational mafia strategy plan. Mafia want to blend in by 'nodding with the town' not being 'nodded at'. If they indeed turn out to be mafia, they have already lost even if we don't lynch one today. If, however, more likely they are Town either being honest or vanilla townie trying to confuse mafia, we only hurt ourselves by mislynching one of them on Day 1.

Gummy, imo, really hurt himself and, if he is town, the town by making that ultimatum threat. It's hard to trust someone willing to quit on us. It's also hard to keep up with someone who posts so much. You could form just as, if not more so, convincing an argument without spamming every thought you have.

Tofu, whether he's a bad DT or a bad mafia, clearly seemed to believe there would be at least 3 blue roles, which is fairly unlikely when thinking about balance. (At the same time, I'd like to point out to anyone studying paschl's list of previous setups, that there is nothing statistically informative about 6 data points.)

dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts.

Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet.

Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: + Show Spoiler + if you believe it's better not to claim, why go ahead and claim vanilla townie, and then state that such a claim is useless information? Yet, you don't go crazy when Gummy pressures you; and you then put forward Gummy's medic slip and analyze how Claw appears to be a bad liar. But this: + Show Spoiler + yes is illogical and should not have been posted. All in all, I don't currently think we have enough to lynch Ange, but if either Gummy or Ange flip mafia, I believe the other is a reasonable follow-up lynch because Ange seems to be agreeing with and answering for Gummy while trying to distance from Gummy at the same time.

Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"?

paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime).


As I don't feel I can say 99% someone is mafia, I feel no lynch day 1 is better for us than a mislynch. How often have you seen a Day 1 lynch be mafia and not mislynch? Mafia want us to help them by mislynching the first couple days, why would the mafia draw attention to themselves or lie on day 1 and potentially get caught in the noose's spotlight?
##Vote: No Lynch

On May 03 2012 07:25 paschl wrote:
So there is no chance claw makes the medic claim as a vanilla towny?

On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote:
I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack.

I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics.

The best part is the Mafia won't attack me because they'll think I'm a vanilla townie trying to bite the bullet for the town. If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him. We really just need to keep the detective alive for as long as possible because with so many non-power roles we'll be powerless eventually.

I'd be wary of Gummy for being so aggressive so early on. He's most likely trying to accuse other people so if anyone tries to point fingers at him he can claim that they're protecting the person he's pressuring. That's a pretty shady tatic and with his confindence in himself going to his head he might be trouble.

On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote:
I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack.

I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics.

The best part is the Mafia won't attack me because they'll think I'm a vanilla townie trying to bite the bullet for the town. If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him. We really just need to keep the detective alive for as long as possible because with so many non-power roles we'll be powerless eventually.

I'd be wary of Gummy for being so aggressive so early on. He's most likely trying to accuse other people so if anyone tries to point fingers at him he can claim that they're protecting the person he's pressuring. That's a pretty shady tatic and with his confindence in himself going to his head he might be trouble.

On May 03 2012 07:37 paschl wrote:
Yes, there definitively is.
Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt?
A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases.

On May 03 2012 07:40 FirmTofu wrote:
Gummy, I think I know what you're doing. Let it be known to posterity that I think its a terrible strategy.

We aren't going to have a lynch today. I think both Claw and Gummy are town, and no one else has enough evidence on top of them for me to even consider lynching them.

Get over yourself Gummy. There is no way you can deduce everyone's alignment from a handful of Day 1 posts. Let's wait a day and see if we get some REAL information.

##vote: No Lynch

On May 03 2012 07:43 Clawtrocity wrote:


By drawing attention in the daychat I'm being pressured into being lynched. That means killing me at night is stupid because I'll be killed during the day time. It's just as simple as not lynching people who act scummy on purpose and you succeed.

No offense to you, but I do hope you're the one that gets shot because you're not the real medic so losing a vanilla townie isn't so bad. I have to heal Tofu just in case they try to pull any fishy things where they think I'm trying to make them target you so I can heal you at night.

You're almost having a panic attack in the middle of the day just because people don't see something the way you see it. Calm down and look at the situation with open eyes.

On May 03 2012 07:49 Clawtrocity wrote:
Just out of curiosity Gummy, have you played SC2 Mafia?

The strategy you're employing works perfectly there. The one where you just spam your opinion until everyone follows your word.

On May 03 2012 07:43 Clawtrocity wrote:


By drawing attention in the daychat I'm being pressured into being lynched. That means killing me at night is stupid because I'll be killed during the day time. It's just as simple as not lynching people who act scummy on purpose and you succeed.

No offense to you, but I do hope you're the one that gets shot because you're not the real medic so losing a vanilla townie isn't so bad. I have to heal Tofu just in case they try to pull any fishy things where they think I'm trying to make them target you so I can heal you at night.

You're almost having a panic attack in the middle of the day just because people don't see something the way you see it. Calm down and look at the situation with open eyes.

On May 03 2012 07:43 paschl wrote:


Youre not getting what i mean by too scumy to be scum.
We have this thing on our forum where outed scum post lolcats when theyre getting lynched as to give nothing away. Its a tradition in the forum.
Now someone goes ahead and makes his first post of the game a lolcat.
What scum would ever do that? So you could assume he is a towny because a towny is more likely to just go ahead and post it.
Similarly ive seen scum post screenshots of something with a seemingly random aim window called "scumchat" open.

On May 03 2012 07:54 dahdum wrote:
I too suspect Claw, but I don't think we gain enough information from a lynch to overcome the chance he's Town. If we gain no matter what he reveals, I can see it being worthwhile.

What do we gain by lynching claw now?
a) Claw reveals Medic: We lose a medic.
b) Claw reveals Scum: Win.
c) Claw reveals VT: Gummy is medic, mafia very likely kills him.

2 of those scenarios are very bad for us, and I don't think we should take the risk.

On May 03 2012 07:57 Ange777 wrote:
I still don't understand. Voting no lynch will leave us in almost the same situation on day 2 as now, only difference is we will know one colour but are down one townie. I fear that this won't be sufficient to rule scum out on day 2 as well.

On May 03 2012 08:01 paschl wrote:


You could also call it experience but ok.
And i said it before, he could be a towny just trying to take a bullet for a blue role.
I said before that its an easy play for scum but the mafia doesnt know the roles either. So its not a bad play for a towny to claim medic on day1 in this setup.
Especially since theyre not gonna find the detective on n1 (ok the could randomly hit him).
Again, how many actual games of werewolf have you played before?

On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote:

This.

All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions.

As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check.

On May 03 2012 08:04 paschl wrote:

wat?

On May 03 2012 08:02 FirmTofu wrote:

This.

All I see with Gummy is a guy who thinks he is better than everyone else here and thinks he has the game figured out. He wants everyone to see how right he is, so he is pushing Claw with a single-minded focus with utter disregard for any legitimate strategy. I am not one who will vote with someone who allows his emotions to sway his decisions.

As you can see with all his bolded posts, he is simply spewing rhetoric and nonsensical arguments to get people to listen to him at this point. As I mentioned earlier, we should adopt a strict policy of ignoring Gummy until he gets his emotions in check.

On May 03 2012 08:09 Clawtrocity wrote:


Freudian Slip.

I knew you weren't a medic.

On May 03 2012 08:11 Gummy wrote:
Just for evidence, here's a link to my word choice.

On May 03 2012 08:12 paschl wrote:
Dude i study computer science, ive posted on english messaged boards for the better part of 13 years.
I understand your theory i just dont think its applicable in a game with this much imperfect information.

You just answered my post by turning words i never used around to jump at me.

On May 03 2012 08:14 Gummy wrote:

You're still making irrelevant points. I'm glad you've posted on "english messaged boards" for the better part of 13 years. If you understood my theory you would know that it was particularly devised specifically for dynamic games of imperfect information. And game theory and computer science have intersections in incentive compatibility and mechanism design, but not much else. I know because I double major in these two fields.

On May 03 2012 08:23 paschl wrote:
##VOTE: Gummy

pure spitevote.
id rather kill the medic than go on and play day2 with an obnoxiously arogant, self centered game theory whiz who thinks he is a genius.

On May 03 2012 08:26 paschl wrote:
god i hope so.

I should have explained my position on his quote in detail. I agreed with the facts, but not the eventual conclusion drawn from it(whether it was good or bad). I think it's better to Let one townie die at night, then to be lynching one AND letting one die.

1 townie dead is better than 2 townies dead. Pretty simple concept.

Now you may argue that we will get some information about me and you if we lynch Claw, but I disagree. We still haven't had a night with night actions yet, so we don't have any contradictory claims.

No matter what Claw flips, our claims are still independent of his. If you think double medic is somehow less likely than any other combination of blue roles, that is your prerogative. I will not jump to that conclusion. Therefore, Claw is not an information lynch and we will not be better off lynching him unless he is scum.

Evidence for Claw being scum:
-Gummy counter-claims medic after Claw claims it.
-Gummy thinks Claw is scum.
-Gummy has used careful and stepwise game theoretic logic that you can freely examine to further the claim that Claw's play is not consistent with any townie objective.

Evidence for Claw being vanilla townie:
-Claw is a troll.

Evidence for Claw being medic:
-Claw claimed medic.

Conclusion:
We don't actually know anything and anyone who says he has the game figured out at this point is dead-wrong.

On May 03 2012 08:33 FirmTofu wrote:

That's probably because I see no reason to apply your painstakingly crafted game theoretic models to this game. This is a game that is dependent more on psychology than anything else. As you said, it is a game of limited information and we should acknowledge that.

I see no reason to believe you can model the individual psychologies of all players with your extensive knowledge of game theory. Bragging about your major isn't exactly helping your case.

On May 03 2012 08:36 Clawtrocity wrote:
I don't see how being medic and claiming medic hurt my chances of winning when the mafia are quite aware of a thing called WIFOM. By virtue of me claiming medic they don't think I'm medic at all and I'm allowed to heal whomever I please.

On May 03 2012 08:39 FirmTofu wrote:
See, the main reason I don't think your game theoretic models apply to this game is because I am a town detective and your game theoretic models directly oppose this fact.

Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me?

On May 03 2012 08:43 FirmTofu wrote:
Additionally, you seem to distance your activities from ours as if you are somehow confirmed town and no one should doubt your alignment.

Have you tried applying your game theory models to yourself? You seem to be voting Claw after doing the exact same thing you said was scummy about him: claiming medic.

At least I am consistent in my actions. I think both you and Claw are town. However, you are not. If Slaw is scum by your logic, then you must be scum as well. You quite literally pulled the exact same gambit he did.

On May 03 2012 08:52 FirmTofu wrote:

My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night.

If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results.

If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward.

If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about.

Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it.

On May 03 2012 09:58 Matriarch wrote:
Does it matter that I am female?

On May 04 2012 11:05 Clawtrocity wrote:
I don't understand how I'm playing bad. I've stuck with my role claim and pointed out all the logical fallacies Gummy is using to try and discredit me.

On May 05 2012 03:11 dahdum wrote:


So you'll happily bandwagon but not initiate his vote? I don't think you can have it both ways.

On May 05 2012 04:23 Gummy wrote:

Pretty sure I can.

On May 07 2012 18:37 FirmTofu wrote:
I'd just like to shed some light on what Gummy did.

It all started when Claw claimed medic and I claimed Detective right afterwards. Gummy did not want to attack into either of the two roles because the risk of a heal going through was too great. He saw my plan's potential and had to figure out some way to discredit it(and me) before it could come to fruition.

Here's the critical part. He saw a hole in my logic and by extension in Claw's logic that he could exploit IF AND ONLY IF he could convince everyone that the mafia were going to play optimally. He used his game theory calculations as a veil to cover up the fact that he was basing everything on this primary underlying assumption--Mafia would act in their best possible interest.

But would mafia really always act in their best possible interest, or would they be swayed by emotions and what they perceive the actions of others to be? Is this a numbers game, as Gummy asserts, or it is more psychological?

I'll be the first to admit it. Gummy's logic wasn't fabricated. The problem was the underlying assumption. The assumption that should not have been assumed because the mafia:
1) May know anything about game theory (Information deficiency)
2) Could be Gummy himself, which he failed to acknowledge as a possibility. Which only supports my position as being medic
3) May choose their actions based upon suboptimal play because of WIFOM. If Gummy can predict optimal play, then supoptimal play BECOMES optimal, does it not? Suboptimal play does NOT become optimal even under WIFOM. If there is a mixed strategy solution, which in pretending to be Mafia during day play does not contain
No mafia wants their night actions predicted by a town member, and if they are forced to play suboptimally to circumvent that, they that suboptimal play becomes optimal because it turns into the best course of action. Being unpredictable is only sometimes helpful. You play to maximize expectation. A medic cannot save himself, and the probability of a second save is less than 50%. A kill on me first night, assuming Claw was scum, would've been optimal regardless of predictability. Since he was not scum and merely trolling, my explanation for why I was the optimal target for mafia first night was correct. This provides no evidence that I am Mafia.

So why did Gummy claim medic?

A short-sighted plan for a new guy who thinks he knows everything there is to know about mafia. He wanted to prove to everyone on this site that he was a force to be reckoned with and his deceptive skills in the art of persuasion were top-notch. A pretentious douchebag? Perhaps. I wouldn't go that far. I'd say he was looking to prove himself and made a critical blunder that overlooked basic logic in favor of making a spectacle of himself.

For all his knowledge of game theory, he couldn't run run a simple cost-benefit analysis to predict the repercussions of his actions.

What should have gone through Gummy's brain on Day 1:
+ Show Spoiler +


There is no accusation until here. I am assumed to be Mafia and then this logic furthers the point that my play so far would have been highly suboptimal if I were scum. Nowhere does he give any evidence that I am scum.

Remember that flip-flop thing he did on Day 1? That was your scum tell. I initially didn't believe it because I thought it was too obvious, and Gummy seemed like an intelligent guy, but that was my mistake. That was not a scum tell. This is a medic tell. That was entirely consistent with getting rid of a Mafia. As I had said many times before, I thought of this action as a separating equilibrium. If you filter through my post history you will see me saying over and over again "a medic for a scum is a good trade." If you're going to question my intelligence, at least pick an issue I didn't explicitly already account for.

I thought Gummy was town only because I assumed that he was logical enough not to make such a serious blunder. Claiming medic as mafia on Day is poor play by any standards because it invites your eventual death. This is an obvious contradiction against what he said in the previous paragraph. There is nothing but rhetorical jujitsu here. Up until this point he has yet to give a shred of evidence that I am Mafia but has repeated that I am Mafia. This is "proof by repetition" at its most classic.

Hopefully the last mafia can keep this game interesting, but we are definitely far ahead at this point. We've only lost 3 vanillas in exchange for half of the mafia team. The medic is still safely hidden so if he survives one more night without me dying, we be able to safely investigate the rest of the town and clinch victory. This analysis is mathematically incorrect, even if it assumed certainty about my alignment. 4v1 is far from a "far ahead" situation for the Mafia. 3v1 without any additional Host-provided information or medic is a worst case 67% win rate for Mafia (2/3 chance of lynching a townie. Nobody will no-lynch since no-lynch is autoloss). With medic it becomes 50/50. (1/3 chance of autowin by lynching medic. 1/3 chance of 50% guess on medic, 1/3 chance of autoloss by lynch = 50%)

On May 07 2012 21:19 Gummy wrote:
If anybody is hesitant about "WHAT IF WE LYNCH THE DETECTIVE" just remember that at this point in the game all mislynches are equivalent. If we happen to lynch the detective, the detective being a townie, we lose just the same as if we lynched any other innocent townie.

On May 07 2012 20:45 Ange777 wrote:
@Gummy:
It's not being wrong about you but being wrong about the next lynch that would make us lose. Even without Tofu confirming you mafia, your word is the least credible.

##Vote: Gummy

My guess for the last mafia is Aces or Dahdum as well. Having Gummy very actively trying to confuse town and the other mafia member somehow lurking and hidden seems like a good strategy. Tofu and Paschl are both too active and pro town for that.

I suggest Tofu to check Aces or Dahdum the following night. None of them were very active in this game so it's hard to guess. I'll check their filter later once more. If Tofu can get the crucial bit of information there will be a good chance for us to win this game.

On May 08 2012 02:16 Ange777 wrote:
@Gummy:
During both day 1 and day 2 you strongly push for a Claw lynch. Right before the lynch you switch your vote. You explain this by analyzing his good-bye post to be town. I can explain this by saying that having him flip town would prove you wrong and scummy which you wanted to prevent. You were so sure that we would not get all 5 votes together that you pushed very hard for this case so you'd look like a very pro town player.

During night 2 you claim mafia explaining that you want mafia to be convinced that we will lynch you the following day. Well I can explain you claimed mafia in order to fool us into believing your theory. Same logic.

Now on day 3 you have already voted dahdum, voted Tofu, suspected Paschl, suspected me. You sure you don't want to vote for Aces as well or at least suspect him?



Your behaviour fits all three of them so yeah, you are scum. Besides, there is Tofu's check on you confirming you mafia.

Lynching you leaves us with 4 townies - 1 mafia. After night we will still have 3 townies - 1 mafia, of course there will be an additional lynch.

On May 08 2012 02:16 Ange777 wrote:
@Gummy:
During both day 1 and day 2 you strongly push for a Claw lynch. Yes, and for good reason Right before the lynch you switch your vote. You explain this by analyzing his good-bye post to be town. Read his good-bye post one more time if you don't think that's good enough reason to risk the no-lynch

I can explain this by saying that having him flip town would prove you wrong and scummy which you wanted to prevent. The only thing that would prove me wrong or scummy is if he flipped medic. My case was that either he was scum, or that he was playing in such a way that would be hurting the town. It turned out, unfortunately for us, to be the latter. You were so sure that we would not get all 5 votes together that you pushed very hard for this case so you'd look like a very pro town player. If I were Mafia, as Tofu and Ange are, I would be all in favor of getting rid of the innocent townie. Even better if it's a medic. I could say the same thing I'm saying to you now and just say "I wasn't online for his last post." But since I did not do that, you should take it to mean that I really did believe in his innocence and wanted to protect him for the sake of the town. This is called the intuitive criterion.

During night 2 you claim mafia explaining that you want mafia to be convinced that we will lynch you the following day. Well I can explain you claimed mafia in order to fool us into believing your theory. Same logic. Of course it is. I wanted you to think, as you now do, that you have a clear and simple path to victory. If you got rid of a vanilla townie during the night and then used my apparent confession to lynch me during the day, the game would be the scum's. You two have basically revealed yourselves to be scum based on the apparent desperation and heavy rhetoric in your arguments, but I'm not really sure you care anymore since you have the votes you need to win, x_x.

Now on day 3 you have already voted dahdum, voted Tofu, suspected Paschl, suspected me. You sure you don't want to vote for Aces as well or at least suspect him? My vote was on dahdum, before I refreshed the page and noticed Firm's accusation of me based on an alleged read (the first time I thought he was blindly echoing paschl's vote). Once I noticed he was lying about his read, and could not come up with a justifiable townsperson's rationale for lying about the read, I concluded that he must be Mafia. My accusation of you, ange, is based on your echoing his sentiment in this post, again, without any real substance. Furthermore, you posted after Claw's goodbye vote, yet you did not retract your vote as I did.



Your behaviour fits all three of them so yeah, you are scum. Besides, there is Tofu's check on you confirming you mafia. Night play is a very different beast from day play. I pretended to be scum so as to have one last chance to make the case that I'm making before the town today, with the egocentric mentality that I would notice something that the inactive townies might not.

Lynching you leaves us with 4 townies - 1 mafia. After night we will still have 3 townies - 1 mafia, of course there will be an additional lynch. Seeing as I'm the medic, lynching me makes it 3 townies - 2 mafia. Tonight, you win, ange!

On May 08 2012 03:20 Gummy wrote:
Look here's my take on it:

Let's assume for a moment that Tofu is detective and Ange is a VT voting either of them off would result in a loss for the town.

That said, we should be voting ENTIRELY based on whoever is MOST LIKELY to be mafia with no other consideration for what other roles they might be. Tofu has been lying about being detective (which can't help the townspeople) so he must be scum.

While I'm reasonably confident that Ange is scum, I'd rather not take the risk of reduced certainty for no benefit.

On May 08 2012 04:13 dahdum wrote:
As of now, I don't have any reason to suspect Tofu is lying. He outed himself after a double medic claim, assuming he would be protected (safe assumption) and has been forthright in his checks. I didn't like the Matriarch check but the check on Gummy is logical to me. There is only a chance of a framer + a chance they frame Gummy, and mafia/town alike will use that same defense, so playing the odds sounds right to me.

##Vote: Gummy

On May 08 2012 06:00 paschl wrote:


*cough*antispew*cough*
Given all that you posted itt you now want to lynch the guy who claimed seer while there hasnt been a counterclaim and his peek has been killed tonight?
It makes no sense.

On May 08 2012 06:06 Gummy wrote:

There is no detective. That's why there's no counterclaim...

On May 08 2012 06:36 FirmTofu wrote:
Aces is the last mafia and Gummy is already dead by now.

Votes on Gummy(Need 4 to lynch):
paschl
FirmTofu
Ange777
dahdum

GG.

I didn't even read his counter-arguments because they are all Gummy flailing at town hoping to appeal to emotion.

For the record, Claw's fallacies were quite on target this game. It's a shame you all killed him instead of Gummy.

On May 08 2012 06:31 paschl wrote:


Is this another mafia claim?
I was talking about Tofu.

And how do you even know a generator like this was used? I could just aswell see him having 5-7 finished setups and rolling a dice instead of the method wikipedia uses.

On May 08 2012 03:14 AcesRequiem wrote:
All of you could be scum, seriously.

Paschl mainly because he voted for Claw when you switched your vote, Gummy. Even though you were strongly convinced Gummy was the enemy and Claw was innocent, you still voted for his lynch. I can understand this from one point, but it looks very scummy from another.

FirmTofu and Gummy you two are seriously both so confusing, however, you both bring up some fine arguments. Will look into this deeper in a moment. Gummy, why are you so sure Ange777 is maffia? Stop throwing around random accusations and please explain. I'm suspecting him aswell.

But why would we not go for a save lynch and lynch the lurker, being dahdum? We should've done this on day one for christ sake.

##Vote: dahdum