EPTNewbie Mini XII
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
On April 30 2012 12:44 DeMorcerf wrote: (^I will miss Awake when it goes off-air.) Sorry to do this, but: Millers - they are listed on the "remaining list" but not on the "Roles and Setup Info"; so are there potentially millers in this game? Vigilante has only 1 bullet? Hypothetically, if the Framer frames the Godfather, does he return 'Mafia'? When a mafia dies, will we be told specifically if they were goon, framer, rolecop, etc? Jailer protects from "1kp and roleblock" : so if the jailed player is targeted by multiple kps they would die? If they are "protected from roleblock" does that imply that their action still occurs, or is being jailed the same as being roleblocked? Does jailing also prevent investigation by detective or rolecop; does it also prevent being framed? What happens if Jailkeeper and Mafia Drug-Roleblocker act on each other? Drugged players are informed; are jailed players informed? Why would the framere frame the Godfather? | ||
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
On April 30 2012 21:10 Mattchew wrote: WIFOM = Wine in front of me. Best described here http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM AF i have no idea what that means If you read all the links in the 4th OP post Useful Guides This will help you greatly with abbreviations and game play I've found that day play has very little WIFOM. Typically there is an optimal way for townspeople to play and since there is no reason for a townsperson to make himself look like a Mafia, there is no circular reasoning. The mafia will try their best to look like townspeople. The townspeople will try their best to look like townspeople. In my experience WIFOM only applies in hit or miss situations where, say, the detective has revealed himself/herself to combat a lategame roleclaim by scum when a doctor/protector has already revealed himself. At this point the doctor must think through the reasoning of whether he should protect himself or the detective. In newbie games (in person), if I happen to get the protector role, in the absence of roleblockers, I always reveal myself immediately and instruct the detective not to do the same. This turns the game into one where knowing friends' IRL personalities and tells will win the game (which tends to favor me since I like to stare at the hot chicks I play with), rather than ridiculous WIFOM mixed strategy nonsense. Since it is not particularly easy to detect "tells" in online text-based play (especially in newbie games where nobody knows one another), I'm not sure how such a game plays out as anything more than the result of luck and random whimsy. In the absence of tells, it seems to me like the dominant strategy in day play is to vote off whoever is most useless. Following this train of logic, the surviving players will be those that are least experienced so the identity of the winning team will be determined solely by the distribution induced by the initial RNG. Even if, on the other hand, the fact that this is a newbie game might result in a number of players genuinely having no idea about the basics of game theory, backward induction, or the mechanics of the game of mafia, scum pretending to be a such a noob unfamiliar with game mechanics is the surest way to get lynched. The interesting part of this comes into play if the number of mafia KP + roleblocks outnumbers the town roles/roleblocks. Then mafia will have a winning chance of making headway by removing the most useful players. Then, there's some interesting play where being useless during the day protects you from being targeted at night, but might get you lynched. All this analysis seems to yield the existence of at least one fun Nash Equilibrium: 1.) In the absence of role blocks or any roleclaims, the protector should always be as useful as he or she can be during the day. 2.) Mafia should try their best to be useful since they cannot be targeted at night. These two strategies are roughly dominant since the lack of information about the number of initial roles cannot inform a nontrivial bayesian prior, and thus no real information is revealed by being "useful." 3.) Townspeople should play a mixed strategy since there is a tradeoff between being targeted during the day or being targeted during the night. Depending on townspeoples' beliefs as to the number of mafia remaining in the game, the distribution of usefulness to uselessness should be modified accordingly. | ||
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
In a very rough approximation if a certain faction has the advantage, it behooves them to play randomly, since there is no advantage the other team can gain against such random play. This is only rough, however, since certain roles give critical information whose value is hard to quantify. | ||
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
 Seeing as I have no data so far, my notes are currently based only on the chosen usernames. + Show Spoiler + 1.) dahdum -> This guy has a silly name. 2.) Gummy -> This is me. I am a vanilla townie. 3.) AcesRequiem -> What a tryhard name. Expect serious things from this pro. 4.) Matriarch -> this person is probably not female. Maybe MtF transgender. Or maybe just a feminist who believes in a merits of a matrilineal society 5.) DeMorcerf -> Don't understand this name. Maybe he is esoteric. 6.) FirmTofu -> Somebody with this amazing a name cannot be scum. I hope I'm not proven wrong. 7.) Clawtrocity -> Sense some violent undercurrents in this one. Very anakin-esque. 8.) paschl -> Good clean fun name. Hard to see such a wonderful name as scum. 9.) Ange777 -> Numbers in the name. Sounds like a smurf. Be weary of this one. Troll sense activated. | ||
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
I suspect we will have the standard detective and medic(just looked it up and it's apparently called a medic in this game. Very bw-esque) on the townie side. I also suspect the size of the Mafia faction is 2. Any more and the most likely outcome leaves the mafia winning by day 3. Any fewer, and they don't stand a chance. Based on this hypothesis, the composition of the scum faction is up in the air. It might be that both members of the mafia are special roles. Since this is a newbie game and Mattchew presumably wants to make this as fun for as many of us as possible, I am going with this gut feeling. I suspect one scum is a rolecop. The other scum is a goon/blocker/framer. I don't think it would make sense for there to be two from the set of goon/blocker/framer since they more or less are out to do the same thing.... sabotage the detective. | ||
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
On May 01 2012 08:35 paschl wrote: Im gonna give Gummy some townie points for the opening. Sounds honest/happy to play and he makes a promise to keep giving notes. Once per page even. Since i think its hard to keep this up (to be clear, i dont think its possible to get the list in once per page) i think a scum would be unlikely to make the promise in the first time. So love is all around. I'm going to give paschl some scum points since, as I mentioned in the preface chatter, that basically everybody should play the strategy of being useful with nonzero probability. However, to presume that I am a Vanilla Townie is the least probable given a set of Bayesian priors, since townies have an optimal mixed strategy between being helpful and laying low. At worst you are scum trying to direct my attention away from you. At best, you have poorly laid out your train of deduction and given the few number of players we have and the utter lack of information regarding the number and composition of roles, such naivete is ample reason for me to cast my vote for you. Alas, nobody else has opened their mouths yet. Just to be clear, I am gambling on their not being a role blocker and there being a medic. I hope that by laying out notes I will be a sufficiently attractive target for the medic to save for the first 2 nights or so. | ||
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
List of hypothesized roles and corresponding claims: Townies: 1 Detective 1 Medic 2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy, Paschl Scum 1 Framer 1 Rolecop | ||
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
On May 01 2012 08:54 Ange777 wrote: Oh, the game started, I am really excited  Seems like I should have chosen a better name? ^^ Anyway, I am no smurf just a long time reader creating the account to try TL Mafia. I only played a similar game IRL once so I really wanted to try this. Isn't it a bit harsh to judge the players by their names? Maybe we should talk about the name Gummy. Perhaps someone who loves gummy bears and apparentely tofu. Weird sense of taste @Paschl: I think you can change your timezone in your profile by picking the right country. Hey scum. You gonna claim a role? | ||
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
Townies: 1 Detective 1 Medic 2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy, Paschl 2 Other roles? Scum 1 Framer - Ange777 1 Rolecop | ||
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
On May 01 2012 08:59 paschl wrote: Gummy you shouldnt do this. Nowhere did i claim vanilla townie. I might be the detective. Youre making the job easy for the scum. And you included the scum roles for "corresponding claims"? I hope someone signs up lol. On May 01 2012 08:59 Gummy wrote: List of hypothesized roles and corresponding claims: Townies: 1 Detective 1 Medic 2 Vanilla Townie - Gummy 2 Other roles? Scum 1 Framer - Ange777 1 Rolecop - Paschl | ||
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Gummy
United States2169 Posts
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