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On March 02 2012 01:28 Maverick32x wrote:
@Mementoss-
Agreed, my other two reads (Fried and Tiystus) I'm not as confident in. So I am open to reconsidering. OtoshimonoU is a good read on your part- I'll keep my eye on it. I like your reasoning on it with the "follows what is the trend". I'll be interested to see how that pans out.
@RainMaker-
Thats a good point- but I guess thats an issue of do we want to lynch someone because they're not playing the game well? I think its important to remember that our goal is to get mafia. But I do see your point.
@Trackd00r-
haha, the calculations were a bit much, I agree. I'm trying to prevent a random lynch. I see a lynch as an opportunity to actually use the information we have to see if its accurate- not as chance to get 'lucky'....
How much time do we have before a vote? I'm thinking that we may get some information from that?
Yeah, I realize that's not the kindest method of playing, but the win condition is to make sure there are no mafia left. Not to make sure we never hit a townie.
If people are opposed to a random lynch, please lets move forward with some sort of organized lynch. I've got to head to class, but I'll post my thoughts on who I think is suspicious later on.
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On March 02 2012 03:08 Rainmaker5 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 01:28 Maverick32x wrote:
@Mementoss-
Agreed, my other two reads (Fried and Tiystus) I'm not as confident in. So I am open to reconsidering. OtoshimonoU is a good read on your part- I'll keep my eye on it. I like your reasoning on it with the "follows what is the trend". I'll be interested to see how that pans out.
@RainMaker-
Thats a good point- but I guess thats an issue of do we want to lynch someone because they're not playing the game well? I think its important to remember that our goal is to get mafia. But I do see your point.
@Trackd00r-
haha, the calculations were a bit much, I agree. I'm trying to prevent a random lynch. I see a lynch as an opportunity to actually use the information we have to see if its accurate- not as chance to get 'lucky'....
How much time do we have before a vote? I'm thinking that we may get some information from that? Yeah, I realize that's not the kindest method of playing, but the win condition is to make sure there are no mafia left. Not to make sure we never hit a townie. If people are opposed to a random lynch, please lets move forward with some sort of organized lynch. I've got to head to class, but I'll post my thoughts on who I think is suspicious later on.
That's exactly what we are doing right now. We're moving forward with an organized lynch by starting discussing who we think are suspicious. People who seemed to be relatively active early in the thread haven't been by today. It will be interesting to see what their thoughts are, as well as when you and Trackd00r get back. Also to answer mavericks question I think in the rules it says 48 hour days 24 hour nights.
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Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low.
I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
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On March 01 2012 23:13 Mementoss wrote:
I am opposed to the general idea of the Random Lynch, it is highly risky, there will be one of us leaving no matter what. So that will put us at 8-3. -->73% Chance we get a townie, now I can see the logic for a Random Lynch, but not in this circumstance. Maybe if it was 50/50.
In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. Three of us are scum. They get to act as a group and they can easily influence us on day 1 since there is not much information. Also, they have 3 votes to easily tip the scales if we were deciding between two players.
Then again, how do we go about lynching at random? Is it possible to vote for the admin to do a random lynch?
If not, then doing it random isn't an option.
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On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote:Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Show nested quote +On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
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On March 02 2012 05:12 Pablols wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2012 23:13 Mementoss wrote:
I am opposed to the general idea of the Random Lynch, it is highly risky, there will be one of us leaving no matter what. So that will put us at 8-3. -->73% Chance we get a townie, now I can see the logic for a Random Lynch, but not in this circumstance. Maybe if it was 50/50.
In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. Three of us are scum. They get to act as a group and they can easily influence us on day 1 since there is not much information. Also, they have 3 votes to easily tip the scales if we were deciding between two players. Then again, how do we go about lynching at random? Is it possible to vote for the admin to do a random lynch? If not, then doing it random isn't an option.
No, random lynch is not good at all. Better to go on some hunch. We already have a few little hunches that I would rather go on then just nothing at all. We also have someone who is inactive thus far. Those are 2 better options then random lynch.
Also, looking at Pablols filter, Stance: Random Lynch, lynch someone who opposes the lynch.
--> Labels first post of the game as suspicious. 1 liner, no real logic to why its suspicious. Filler really.
--> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves.
-->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie.
-->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching. The general consensus of those without scummy tendencies have been to try and figure out a good candidate to lynch or lynch no one at all. He is really trying to push a lynch no matter what, risky play. As the townie mafia numbers get closer, the mafia advantage rises significantly. Two bad lynches could be game. Logic should be our weapon, not rolling the dice.
All in all lynching someone with no basis is an absolutely terrible option in this situation. Some circumstances in the game where you cannot risk the scum even getting 1 up, and you have no leads is a good situation to pick someone at random. This is not the case. We currently hold our people advantage and there is no desperation at this point in the game.
That being said I think we have some decent information to come up with the best lynchable candidate and we should try to keep discussing to get as much information out there as we can based on peoples post behavior.
Here are my top picks for scum right now:
OtoshimonoU
Pablols
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
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On March 02 2012 05:41 OtoshimonoU wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote:Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have. FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum??
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On March 02 2012 05:50 Mementoss wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 05:41 OtoshimonoU wrote:On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote:Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have. FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me) Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum??
I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others.
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On March 02 2012 05:58 OtoshimonoU wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 05:50 Mementoss wrote:On March 02 2012 05:41 OtoshimonoU wrote:On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote:Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have. FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me) Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum?? I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others.
He wasn't complaining about your inactivity, in fact, other than me your one of the most active. In fact he's complaining about your (Post) to (Meaningful Post). Right now that ratio is 6:1. You've had seven posts, only one in which discusses what the town should be doing/ has some sort of active strategic value for getting rid of scum. Here it is:
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Stating how you are against a first day lynch. All other posts have been filler. Even this post here is suspicious as you try to draw attention away from yourself and towards someone who is a non-poster. After that post you either post something that has nothing to do with anything. Or post something that agrees with someone 1 or more people have said, trying to blend in with ideas. This is the reason you posts have 0 content. Cause you don't want to attract attention to yourself by having a unique opinion.
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On March 02 2012 06:08 Mementoss wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 05:58 OtoshimonoU wrote:On March 02 2012 05:50 Mementoss wrote:On March 02 2012 05:41 OtoshimonoU wrote:On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote:Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have. FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me) Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum?? I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others. He wasn't complaining about your inactivity, in fact, other than me your one of the most active. In fact he's complaining about your (Post) to (Meaningful Post). Right now that ratio is 6:1. You've had seven posts, only one in which discusses what the town should be doing/ has some sort of active strategic value for getting rid of scum. Here it is: Show nested quote +On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Stating how you are against a first day lynch. All other posts have been filler. Even this post here is suspicious as you try to draw attention away from yourself and towards someone who is a non-poster. After that post you either post something that has nothing to do with anything. Or post something that agrees with someone 1 or more people have said, trying to blend in with ideas. This is the reason you posts have 0 content. Cause you don't want to attract attention to yourself by having a unique opinion.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhh, I see. So attracting attention to yourself is a good thing!
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On March 02 2012 06:11 OtoshimonoU wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 06:08 Mementoss wrote:On March 02 2012 05:58 OtoshimonoU wrote:On March 02 2012 05:50 Mementoss wrote:On March 02 2012 05:41 OtoshimonoU wrote:On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote:Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have. FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me) Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum?? I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others. He wasn't complaining about your inactivity, in fact, other than me your one of the most active. In fact he's complaining about your (Post) to (Meaningful Post). Right now that ratio is 6:1. You've had seven posts, only one in which discusses what the town should be doing/ has some sort of active strategic value for getting rid of scum. Here it is: On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Stating how you are against a first day lynch. All other posts have been filler. Even this post here is suspicious as you try to draw attention away from yourself and towards someone who is a non-poster. After that post you either post something that has nothing to do with anything. Or post something that agrees with someone 1 or more people have said, trying to blend in with ideas. This is the reason you posts have 0 content. Cause you don't want to attract attention to yourself by having a unique opinion. Ohhhhhhhhhhhh, I see. So attracting attention to yourself is a good thing!
I need to go eat supper now will be back later tonight, but let me leave you with this question that you will hopefully answer before my return. Who do you think is scum based on the current situations and clearly outline why using physiological reason /evidence and quotes. Maybe asking questions is the only way to get some sort of articulate posting out of you.
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On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
[
Also, looking at Pablols filter, Stance: Random Lynch, lynch someone who opposes the lynch.
--> Labels first post of the game as suspicious. 1 liner, no real logic to why its suspicious. Filler really.
--> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves.
-->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie.
-->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching. The general consensus of those without scummy tendencies have been to try and figure out a good candidate to lynch or lynch no one at all. He is really trying to push a lynch no matter what, risky play. As the townie mafia numbers get closer, the mafia advantage rises significantly. Two bad lynches could be game. Logic should be our weapon, not rolling the dice.
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Seriously? It seems like you either trying to take things out of context or just skimming through my posts.
-->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie.
I contradict myself? I never wanted passive play, that is stupid, like I said on this post:
"They have almost 100% chance of getting a townie every single night, we have the advantage of having more people making it viable to take risks, if we do not lynch we will be on almost the same position tomorrow, but one down. They have much more to lose if we nail a scum than if we lose a townie"
You quote "In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. "
You left out "Three of us are scum. They get to act as a group and they can easily influence us on day 1 since there is not much information. Also, they have 3 votes to easily tip the scales if we were deciding between two players."
-------
--> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves.
Of course if you take one sentence out of a post it will say nothing.
You just looked at the first PART of that sentence, and ignored everything after "however". Or maybe you are taking it out of context purposely?
You quote "Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks."
You left out "They have almost 100% chance of getting a townie every single night, we have the advantage of having more people making it viable to take risks, if we do not lynch we will be on almost the same position tomorrow, but one down. They have much more to lose if we nail a scum than if we lose a townie, so I think we should probably lynch someone who is asking for no lynch."
-->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching.
What? Maybe I'm seeing this wrong but everyone was talking about random lynching, because it's a huge part of day 1.
The one derailing is you, you didn't even read my posts and then you jump to accusing people. This is the reason why we shouldn't go on someone's hunch when choosing who to lynch on day one. You are jumping to conclusions without any real proof. It seems like you should really read more careful because just looking at page 5 we can see the same thing happening.
You called out someone, trying to take his words out of context and when he confronted you, you just backed down.
Mementoss: "Rereading trackd00r's filter, I see my mistake now. I read it as both concerning towards random lynch. But really, it was just being opposed to a no lynch and opposed to a random lynch. Sorry for the hasty accusations trackd00r. I am still not convinced, but I agree Maverick that you bring up some better suspects."
If we were to lynch someone on day one it should probably be this guy, I do not have enough proof to say he is scum but even if he isn't we can agree he is dangerous because he either doesn't take the time to read an entire post or he is scum.
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On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
Here are my top picks for scum right now:
OtoshimonoU
Pablols
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy post
Honestly, the only people who should jump to conclusions like that list are scum, it's only day one and unless you know who not to vote for you wouldn't be calling people out like that. You didn't even give real reasoning to why Sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are on that list
"All in all lynching someone with no basis is an absolutely terrible option in this situation. Some circumstances in the game where you cannot risk the scum even getting 1 up, and you have no leads is a good situation to pick someone at random. This is not the case. We currently hold our people advantage and there is no desperation at this point in the game."
You said it yourself. But you really seem to be trying really hard to blame someone with no basis so that we organize and lynch then day 1..
As you can read on my other posts I was thinking that random post was the best option because of the lack of information, but now I think I know who I should vote for. You're dangerous to the town even if you're not scum
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I have to go to class  , I'll be back in 3 hours.
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@Pablo I see that you're getting defensive and that you're worried that you're becoming a target (either because you're scum or town, I dont know?) but either way, you're accusing Mementoss of coming up with information out of nowhere, but I'm seeing the direction that he is taking- and I understand it. You're contradicting a lot...I think trying to shift the blame onto Mementoss is not helping your case either...
@Mementoss- Good reads. I also want to hear more from sufficiency!!! I know you guys are looking at OtoshimonoU and Pablols, but I didn't get a good a read off them intially... however based on that last post, I will agree that these are my main 3 suspects. Also I specifically asked a couple questions to some people, and I'm curious to see if they're sidestepped or if they confront the question..
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edit: Just to be clear, I pointed out 2 other Tiystus and friedchicken based off their bandwagoning with Sufficiency... I'm still suspicious of those two, but I'm willing to give them time to respond.. .
But Mementoss has a good argument for OtoshimonU and Pablols as well... obviously they all can't be mafia.. but those are the people that are sticking out suspiciously at this moment..
I'm hoping that my 'suspicions' are well explained and logical, I don't want to appear bloodthirsty, but I also think its important to apply some pressure and see what pans out.
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Also just checked the filter for Trackd00r, for a guy saying that the activity is really low in the game, he sure hasn't contributed much of ANYTHING.... I hadn't noticed that until now. Also nitpicking at specific words someone says? I still don't understand the "are" thing as a 'slipup' or a tell? I'm worried that he may be trying to lead us into a strange place with this style of analysis.. I'm more focused on content, less on if someone types the wrong thing....
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Hey guy was just now able to read through the thread and have time to post. I haven't played a mafia yet on TL but I've played the custom game quite a bit (which I know really isn't too much like this since we have much more time) but it seems the vast majority of the time you lynch on the first night it turns out bad.
However with that said, we do have much more time to get reads on everyone so if a good hunch is found out I'm game for a first night lynch. Definitely prefer it to not be random which it seems everyone agrees.
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Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads.
Look at this quote for example.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
No, random lynch is not good at all. Better to go on some hunch. We already have a few little hunches that I would rather go on then just nothing at all. We also have someone who is inactive thus far. Those are 2 better options then random lynch.
Also, looking at Pablols filter, Stance: Random Lynch, lynch someone who opposes the lynch.
--> Labels first post of the game as suspicious. 1 liner, no real logic to why its suspicious. Filler really.
--> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves.
-->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie.
-->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching. The general consensus of those without scummy tendencies have been to try and figure out a good candidate to lynch or lynch no one at all. He is really trying to push a lynch no matter what, risky play. As the townie mafia numbers get closer, the mafia advantage rises significantly. Two bad lynches could be game. Logic should be our weapon, not rolling the dice.
All in all lynching someone with no basis is an absolutely terrible option in this situation. Some circumstances in the game where you cannot risk the scum even getting 1 up, and you have no leads is a good situation to pick someone at random. This is not the case. We currently hold our people advantage and there is no desperation at this point in the game.
That being said I think we have some decent information to come up with the best lynchable candidate and we should try to keep discussing to get as much information out there as we can based on peoples post behavior.
Here are my top picks for scum right now:
OtoshimonoU
Pablols
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
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I just came back home.
On March 02 2012 05:41 OtoshimonoU wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote:Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have. FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
I know you didn't bold that part. I took it out and post it as a quote. What I wanted to point out is that you were refereing to the town as 'them'. If you use that conjugation, it could mean that you are mafia addressing to town. In that moment, I thought it might be probably a newbie mistake.
Now you are defending yourself in a quite weird way:
On March 02 2012 05:58 OtoshimonoU wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2012 05:50 Mementoss wrote:On March 02 2012 05:41 OtoshimonoU wrote:On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote:Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote:
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have. FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me) Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum?? I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others.
I didn't attack you because of your inactivity, I pointed you because you didn't contribute that much in that moment compared to other people like friedchicken or maverick. You don't really want to point fingers, or to take the lead of the opinions. It looks like you are just checking the thread. What do you think about the Sufficiency situation? Or Pablols?
Getting away with one liners might be a more than enough justification of newbiness in an active mafia game, but doing it now leaves you more exposed. Even when you defended yourself, you didn't touch any other of the issues present here. That's why I'm getting more suspicious of your actions.
You said you don't tend to to kick the same point over and over. You don't do it because you haven't posted substantially yet, or at least you don't appear to. It's like saying that you don't get bad grades on a certain class because you don't attend it.
If you are town, prove it by taking a more active role.
More posts coming up.
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EPT
