EPTNewbie Mini Mafia V - Page 5
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gunman103
United States84 Posts
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gunman103
United States84 Posts
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
On March 01 2012 12:38 gunman103 wrote: I agree. However, we will lose our number advantage more rapidly if we do lynch someone just for the sake of lynching. If there's no potential for information to be gained by lynching him, then we should not do so. I agree Gunman. I oppose any Random lynching.. I’d rather only do it for a reason. I’m going to touch a bit on this on my other posts… I’m finding some things a bit troubling with some of the other posters. You take this position again later on in the posts- and I like it. Trackd00r- Thank you. I agree. We need activity if we’re going to lynch successfully. What I’m most worried about is that the mafia are eyeing inactive townies and plan on trying to swing us in that direction…. Sufficiency- your posts REALLY made me think that you’re wanting to random lynch so that scum can get a 2 for 1. You make it sound like we’re in a very urgent situation- and I don’t see it that way. Also- what does FoS stand for? I’m assuming its an indication that you think gunman is scum because he doesn’t want to kill anyone off. I’m not thinking Gunman is being suspicious- but rather doesn’t want to sacrifice a townie. As I discussed a bit above. And wow, Sufficiency, you just keep accusing people with literally nothing to go on…. Tiystus- you’re in the same boat as Sufficiency- and it also makes me suspicious… Lastly friedchicken is also in the bandwagon… So.. believe it or not guys.. Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency… 3 support randomly lynching…. And there are 3 mafia…. I’d like to hear more out of you guys- but the bandwagoning behind this idea is highly suspicious…. Just to be clear, I'm against a completely Random Lynch. But I would be up for finding out if any of those 3 are mafia. | ||
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Tiystus
United States5 Posts
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
Also, if anyone is curious, our current lurkers are Mementoss, Rainmaker, Pablols and Beorn. So I'd be really interested to hear what you guys have to say about our current discussion as well. Lastly, I'd like Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency to explain to me the advantages of a Random Lynch and how doing so would be in the town's best interest. Keeping in mind we have a 75% chance of lynching a townie if we were do it randomly. | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
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Tiystus
United States5 Posts
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
Situation Ratio of Mafia:town___ Percent Mafia influence_______ Change in Mafia Percentage Right now 3: 9 ______________ 33% Mafia Best case: 1:4 ______________ 25% Mafia ______________ -8% difference ______________ 25% chance of this Worst Case: 3: 7 ______________43% Mafia _____________+10% difference ______________75% chance of this Nothing 3:8: ______________ 37.5%Mafia ______________+4.5% Difference ______________ Depends. I'm not sure if this is helpful to anyone- but I'm finding this game really interesting!! I agree with your assessment that it will have a big payoff- but in all honesty, if we're thinking that a RL is the best option... not lynching will only result in slight change of the Mafia's influence, as opposed to the drastic choices associated with the other two. I guess I'm not much of a gambler- especially when there are 3 people in this thread who have an alternate agenda!! And we have 9 people still trying to orientate ourselves to 'who's, who'. It would be a lot easier for the mafia to influence our decisions on a random townie- which they KNOW is a random townie, and we wouldn't even know it until they've been lynched, and we're left trying to piece it all together. Not to mention if we randomly lynch someone, its likely that we won't get any information since they wouldn't of posted any information in the first place!! So as much as a big payoff as it is for the Town, it also could potentially be a HUGE pay off for the mafia- even more than for Town. One thing that obviously makes it difficult to go 'by the numbers' - is suspicions about certain people which make we feel like our percentage is a lot better that we'll hit a mafia. I appreciate your response- but can you also let me know why you think it is so urgent to make this decision at this point in the game? | ||
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Pablols
Chile519 Posts
On March 01 2012 11:51 trackd00r wrote: Hi everyone, I hope you enjoy the game. This is my second game on this forums. My previous game was Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII. To be very honest, I played pretty bad that game T_T and I hope I can play better in this one. You can take a look and check my meta if you wish. I don't mind. The first lynch is very hard to achieve successfully due to the limited information we have at this moment. The most important thing at this phase of the game is to stay active. Usually, the mafia are able to push out a Townie lynch in Day 1 because inactive or lurkish players don't follow the rhythm of the thread and are prone to make unclear reads and staying out of contributing substantially. Therefore, they are rendered as uncooperative. Plus, they might not have the chance to defend themselves and that pretty much seals their lynch. We obviously don't want this situation to happen, so please be active. Try to post as much good content as you can. This means that you shouldn't post one liners or random fluff to clutter up the thread. Mafia is going to have an easy time hiding if we miss the direction of our goal, which is to lynch scum. This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage. Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent. About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2. I'll be on the thread for about an hour or so today. It seems that we don't have a wide variation of Time zones, so hopefully all of us can be discussing at the same time. Seems really suspicious, almost like he is trying too hard to prove his innocence without real proof. He also uses "we" as if he already proved himself too be innocent, it sounds very suspicious. | ||
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Pablols
Chile519 Posts
They have almost 100% chance of getting a townie every single night, we have the advantage of having more people making it viable to take risks, if we do not lynch we will be on almost the same position tomorrow, but one down. They have much more to lose if we nail a scum than if we lose a townie, so I think we should probably lynch someone who is asking for no lynch. | ||
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friedchicken
United States143 Posts
On March 01 2012 15:00 Maverick32x wrote: I want to just tie together my first post and my latest post. Re-Reading my original post sounds like I'm bloodthirsty to lynch someone, and I just want to be clear that my intention for lynching is that I suspect a Mafia. Not because I want to just search around. Also, if anyone is curious, our current lurkers are Mementoss, Rainmaker, Pablols and Beorn. So I'd be really interested to hear what you guys have to say about our current discussion as well. Lastly, I'd like Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency to explain to me the advantages of a Random Lynch and how doing so would be in the town's best interest. Keeping in mind we have a 75% chance of lynching a townie if we were do it randomly. Apologies, I wasn't clear in my first post. I feel lynching a lurker or someone we suspect to be a Mafia is most definitively better then a RL. I don't feel RL is the best option, just better then not lynching anybody. To quote Pablols: "They have almost 100% chance of getting a townie every single night, we have the advantage of having more people making it viable to take risks, if we do not lynch we will be on almost the same position tomorrow, but one down. They have much more to lose if we nail a scum than if we lose a townie " tl;dr If we don't have anyone to lynch, I think a RL lynch would be better then a no-lynch. | ||
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DimmuKlok
United States225 Posts
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
I am opposed to the general idea of the Random Lynch, it is highly risky, there will be one of us leaving no matter what. So that will put us at 8-3. -->73% Chance we get a townie, now I can see the logic for a Random Lynch, but not in this circumstance. Maybe if it was 50/50. I would say the generally, the people pushing for the Random Lynch, not just stating they agree, but saying things such as its required, or it would be stupid not to are scum. Also I am generally confused with trackd00rs play. He is the first to be active and brings up the idea of the random lynch. He pushes it by saying we lose if we don't get a good lynch early. He also pushes his "innocence" by showing his experience in play, and saying he's bad at the game (not a threat). His back and forth opinions, are possibly of a liar, or someone set to confuse the town. Lets analyze some of his filter here. + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 11:51 trackd00r wrote: This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage. Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent. About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2. ^^ Here trackd00r is all about the Random Lynch, it was his idea of course hes with it. + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though. ^^ Here trackd00r is all opposed to the Random Lynch. What is he trying to do here. He's not helping the gathering of information, hes keeping the debate of the Random Lynch alive, rather than actually looking for helpful information. Killing more of the towns time. Thats my thoughts anyways. | ||
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
Friedchicken: This is my biggest concern when it comes to lynching a lurker, and you guys can tell me I'm wrong, or that its stupid. Lets say all 3 mafia are being active right now. Wouldn't it make sense that they would want us to lynch someone who is not being active, since they KNOW that we would be lynching a town? They wouldn't even have to influence this decision, but just stay back and watch us kill someone. And then after we kill them, we would of literally made NO progress, and now be playing from even more behind. Mementoss: Thanks for posting. Concerning Trackd00r: My only thought is that his first post you quoted kinda doesn't imply that he's for a random lynch.. but that he would like to try to lynch someone the first day. I think these are two extremely different perspectives. Right now I'm FoS'ing Sufficiency. Accusatory out of nowhere, almost picking a fight with multiple people who really haven't given any information. And then is suspicious of someone because they don't want to take a huge risk? Just seems like he has a bit of an agenda to push... Not to mention it really didn't sit with me very well that he just accuses someone, yet has LITERALLY no proof/logic besides "he's a compromiser". What say you Sufficiency? Or anyone else about my assessment so far? | ||
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Rainmaker5
United States1027 Posts
Anyway, I'm not sold that we have strong evidence against anyone currently, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't lynch on the first night. In the end, even i we randomly lynch a townie that just means there's less noise to help find the mafia later. Bare in mind this my first game of mafia in a few years so I might just be wrong. | ||
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
Friedchicken --> Stance: no lynch better than random lynch. About your point about lynching a lurker, it makes sense that if mafia is active than lynching a lurker could definitely be a safe bet for them. But on the other hand lynching a lurker is a risk free way of not hurting the town. Lurkers aren't helping us gather information to find scum and there is a possibility of them actually being mafia. That being said I think we have better options right now. Sufficiency --> Stance: Pushing RL. FoS: OtoshimonoU, gunman103. -He is quick to FoS people, given little information and FoS multiple people at once. Also starting an argument for the sake of wasting posts/making the thread confusing. No logic towards OtoshimonoU, but I think it worth looking at his filter next. OtoshimonoU --> Stance: Initially against any sort of first day lynch, then tries to blend by saying he will follow the major if they want a random lynch. - His filter is filled with 1 liners, most that contribute nothing. His opinion follows the trend of the thread. First post is actually him asking opinions of others rather than stating his own. I'm generally in agreement with you maverick. I would consider Sufficiency suspicious. I'm not really with you on Friedchicken yet, you didn't provide anything related to him. Just the situation if mafia are all active. | ||
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trackd00r
Chile284 Posts
On March 01 2012 23:13 Mementoss wrote: First game here, so maybe I don't understand completely whats going on. But i'm pretty sure Random Lynch isn't the solution.. We really have barely any information to go off of other than the people that support Random Lynching, vs the people that oppose the Random Lynch. Additionally, we can look at the way in which the people are either stating their opinion on this discussion, or rather pushing their opinion on the rest of the town. I am opposed to the general idea of the Random Lynch, it is highly risky, there will be one of us leaving no matter what. So that will put us at 8-3. -->73% Chance we get a townie, now I can see the logic for a Random Lynch, but not in this circumstance. Maybe if it was 50/50. I would say the generally, the people pushing for the Random Lynch, not just stating they agree, but saying things such as its required, or it would be stupid not to are scum. Also I am generally confused with trackd00rs play. He is the first to be active and brings up the idea of the random lynch. He pushes it by saying we lose if we don't get a good lynch early. He also pushes his "innocence" by showing his experience in play, and saying he's bad at the game (not a threat). His back and forth opinions, are possibly of a liar, or someone set to confuse the town. Lets analyze some of his filter here. + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 11:51 trackd00r wrote: This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage. Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent. About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2. ^^ Here trackd00r is all about the Random Lynch, it was his idea of course hes with it. + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though. ^^ Here trackd00r is all opposed to the Random Lynch. What is he trying to do here. He's not helping the gathering of information, hes keeping the debate of the Random Lynch alive, rather than actually looking for helpful information. Killing more of the towns time. Thats my thoughts anyways. @Memetoss: You are misinterpreting my words. In that post I never mentioned that I was in favor of a random lynch. By no means I was trying to push one. I just said that I don't want a no-lynch because we will lack of information later on. That doesn't imply that I'm giving priority to a random lynch. @Marverick: I appreciate your activity, but I need to say that making those kind of probability calculations are not really worth it IMO. It will be barely of any use later, as we are trying to not lynch someone just because of the sake of doing it. The reason why I don't like a random lynch it's because it's likely to be mafia play. Targeting someone randomly pretty much sets the fuse to chaos and instability in the thread, and then scum they can freely fall back. That's what we need to avoid. That's what I have to say at the moment. We shouldn't be talking about lynch policies too long. I'll try to post some reads later. | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
Agreed, my other two reads (Fried and Tiystus) I'm not as confident in. So I am open to reconsidering. OtoshimonoU is a good read on your part- I'll keep my eye on it. I like your reasoning on it with the "follows what is the trend". I'll be interested to see how that pans out. @RainMaker- Thats a good point- but I guess thats an issue of do we want to lynch someone because they're not playing the game well? I think its important to remember that our goal is to get mafia. But I do see your point. @Trackd00r- haha, the calculations were a bit much, I agree. I'm trying to prevent a random lynch. I see a lynch as an opportunity to actually use the information we have to see if its accurate- not as chance to get 'lucky'.... How much time do we have before a vote? I'm thinking that we may get some information from that? | ||
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