Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules:
Cheating: Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information. 2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town. 3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role. 4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles. 5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. 6. Posting or sharing any PM you receive from a host. 7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip. 8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts. 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. 10. Sharing accounts with other players. Only you may post on your account. 11. Breadcrumbing the specific phrasing of your role PM. Do not compare the phrasing in your role PM to prove your alignment. You can claim the abilities you have, but you can't use the specific phrasing of your role PM
Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs: Are not allowed. This is a newbie game, don't try to take advantage of it.
Spam: Please keep spam to a minimum.
Editing: Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be modkilled. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts: If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, Flamewheel, or Mig before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally. I have zero tolerance for flaming.
Reporting posts: The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, Flamewheel, or Mig before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions: Please wait until this game is over to talk about modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Out of thread communication:
It is common for mafia (and town circles if PMs are allowed) to use a medium outside of TL such as QuickTopics or IRC to communicate during the game. Please be mindful that other players may be more tech savvy than you and they may attempt impersonate members of your team or attempt to infiltrate your chat. You use these media at your own risk.
Voting rules:
1. Voting is done in this thread. Please keep votes there, and only vote there. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: Kavdragon. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance. 3. No conditional voting. 4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. This game uses Extended Majority Lynch. That is, at the deadline the player with a majority of votes is lynched (majority = 1/2 the remaining players, rounded down + 1), if no one has a majority then no lynch will take place. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain. You MAY vote for a no lynch by posting ##Vote: No Lynch
Signups:
This game is open newbies only, that is, you must have played three or fewer game on TL.
Game-specific rules:
Modkills: This game follows the TL Mafia Ban List. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM Flamewheel or post in the Ban List.
Replacements This game uses replacements. Replacements will be made in the game until Night 3. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list.
Clues: There are NO clues.
PMs PMs are NOT allowed in this game.
Time Cycle: This game will follow a 24 hour night/48 hour day cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is 02:00 GMT (+00:00), but that is subject to change. Actions/votes will be accepted up to and including the posted time, but not after. Credits: Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer. Thanks to everyone who helped balance this game.
If you have not read all the rules, please go back and do so. Thanks!
This is a semi-open setup, that is, exact role counts will not be known, but the possible roles will be known. All roles presented here are not necessarily in the game, but no roles not included here are present.
Town Roles
Town Win Condition- The town wins when there are no mafia left in the game
Vanilla Townie - You are just a normal player with no night actions. All you can do is vote during the day for someone to be lynched. Your wits and your votes will carry the town to glorious victory or shameful defeat.
Miller- You are just an ordinary citizen of the town of Liquidia. Well, almost ordinary. Unbeknownst to you, you sleepwalk and often end up visiting the graveyard and other suspicious locations. For that reason, you return Mafia to detectives who choose to check you. Millers are not informed that they are millers; rather, they are given regular vanilla townie PMs. The Miller will be revealed as a Miller upon his/her death. The Miller is on the side of the Townies and wins if they win.
Detective - You are a incredible sleuth with keen powers of observation and deduction. Thus, you have the ability to inspect a player every night. You will find out if they are Town or Mafia. You are guaranteed to be sane, but beware of millers, framers and the godfather.
Medic - As the town's doctor, your medical knowledge and healing skills give you the power to save lives. Once per night you can watch a player. If your target is attacked, you will block one hit aimed at them. If you make a successful save, both you and your target will be notified of the save. You cannot save yourself.
Veteran - You've been around the block a few times and know how to escape an attack on your life. But for how long? The veteran gets one additional night life, meaning he must be hit by two attackers to kill him (much like having two medics watching over you, except you lose one life if you incur one attack). If a medic is protecting you, you will not lose a life for the hit the medic protects. If you incur a hit, I will notify you via PM the following day.
Vigilante - You are armed and dangerous! You may, only once during the game, kill a player of your choice during the night. If your hit overlaps with mafia or another vigilante, then I will cancel it and they will kill the person instead. In the case of overlapping vigilantes, the hit that was sent first is the one that goes through. In both cases you will not know who caused your hit to be canceled and you will be able to use your hit anytime after that during the game. You may not use this ability on Night 1.
Mafia Roles
Mafia Win condition- The mafia wins when they equal or outnumber the remaining townies.
Mafia Powers - (all mafia have these, unless specifically stated otherwise) All mafia may vote, as ordinary citizens of Liquidia. All mafia may communicate with each other outside the thread, by any means they wish, and know who the other mafia are. As a group, the mafia team have Kill Power (KP) equal to one, each night, which they may use however they want.
Mafia Goon- One of the newest recruits to the mafia, you are here to visit vengeance upon the town. You have no special powers outside the regular mafia powers. Now destroy these fools and make them see the power of the mafia!
Mafia Roleblocker - You are a mafia member who has the ability to prevent a player from performing a night action. Once per night, you may roleblock a player, and your target will be unable to perform night actions for that night. Your target will be informed that they have been roleblocked (even if they didn't have a night action). You do not have to use your action every night.
Mafia Godfather - The Mafia as a group must choose which Mafia member becomes the Godfather before Day 1 ends. If they do not, the Godfather will be randomly selected. The Godfather will appear to be Town to any detective that investigates him/her.
1.) Its already in the rules, but remember, no editing. I'd rather not modkill for this 2.) Behave as gentlemen (or ladies), things get heated here, but personal attacks are unacceptable, I *will* hold you to the same standards I would anywhere else on teamliquid. 3.) If there is an issue, or you don't understand something, or you think your brilliant plan may be against the spirit of the rules, PM me or EchelonTee. There is no shame in asking. 4.) Don't talk about the game outside the game. Sometimes it can be tempting to discuss it in IRC with a friend, or someone who isn't playing, unless its a private conversation with someone you KNOW isn't in the game, its not a good idea. Getting advice from more experienced players is fine though, just let me know who you are going to for coaching. 5.) This is a game, have fun, and don't carry grudges. 6.) Have fun, seriously.
I've played some games of Werewolf (basically the same as mafia, just the roles have different names) with my friends before, but never played one online. Sign me up.
Sitting out of this one! Didn't realise voting didn't count as a post when I last play Mafia on here so got banned for it, want to play again though so I'll serve my time.
Like I said, I'm new to playing this online, so if I'm missing something obvious or misusing the question text or whatever please correct me. Anyway, I had a question:
The rules mention "Framer" a few times as a mafia role, but it isn't listed in the roles section. Will Framer be a role in this game and if so, what does it do?
On February 28 2012 08:11 TestSubject893 wrote: Like I said, I'm new to playing this online, so if I'm missing something obvious or misusing the question text or whatever please correct me. Anyway, I had a question:
The rules mention "Framer" a few times as a mafia role, but it isn't listed in the roles section. Will Framer be a role in this game and if so, what does it do?
opps, no there won't be a framer in this setup.
For reference:
Mafia Framer - An ex-detective, you know exactly what those schmucks look for when investigating people. In addition to the normal mafia powers, you may choose to frame a player each night, making them return the opposite of what they should to detectives, that is a framed mafia goon returns Town and a framed Vanilla Townie returns Mafia
Sorry, but I am hoping to steal a few newbies from this game to replace into Newbie Mini Mafia IV. One person has already asked to be replaced, and we may be modkilling players on Night 1. I will be PMing some of the people who signed up, so don't be surprised if you receive a PM from me. If you are an interested newbie, please let me know if you'd like to replace into NMM IV. The game isn't very far along, so you wouldn't have too much to catch up on if you take another player's place in the game.
On February 28 2012 13:20 dreamflower wrote: Just to let you know, zelblade, TestSubject893, and nttea have agreed to replace into Newbie Mini Mafia IV.
Looks like everyone is from the US, Chile or Canada. Take me off the list chief, wouldn't want to be that guy who can't make it in time for the serious discussions. /out
On February 29 2012 14:01 FourFace wrote: Looks like everyone is from the US, Chile or Canada. Take me off the list chief, wouldn't want to be that guy who can't make it in time for the serious discussions. /out
That's mean. The game has just filled up and the hosts have confirmed it is about to start. You shouldn't sign up for games that you don't intend on playing.
On February 29 2012 14:01 FourFace wrote: Looks like everyone is from the US, Chile or Canada. Take me off the list chief, wouldn't want to be that guy who can't make it in time for the serious discussions. /out
That's mean. The game has just filled up and the hosts have confirmed it is about to start. You shouldn't sign up for games that you don't intend on playing.
No worries, we actually have an extra replacement that I can throw in for the last spot. Should still be good to go by tomorrow ^_^
On February 29 2012 14:01 FourFace wrote: Looks like everyone is from the US, Chile or Canada. Take me off the list chief, wouldn't want to be that guy who can't make it in time for the serious discussions. /out
Appreciate the sentiment. Come back to play whenever you have the time.
On February 29 2012 14:01 FourFace wrote: Looks like everyone is from the US, Chile or Canada. Take me off the list chief, wouldn't want to be that guy who can't make it in time for the serious discussions. /out
That's mean. The game has just filled up and the hosts have confirmed it is about to start. You shouldn't sign up for games that you don't intend on playing.
It filled up without me, actually. But yes I am mean most of the time on the web because it doesn't have serious consequences.
On February 29 2012 14:01 FourFace wrote: Looks like everyone is from the US, Chile or Canada. Take me off the list chief, wouldn't want to be that guy who can't make it in time for the serious discussions. /out
That's mean. The game has just filled up and the hosts have confirmed it is about to start. You shouldn't sign up for games that you don't intend on playing.
It filled up without me, actually. But yes I am mean most of the time on the web because it doesn't have serious consequences.
Let's keep this civil k guys? Some newbies going to be playing here in a bit.
A player has decided to drop out so we now have one slot open for signups. If someone joins by today, role pms will still go out tonight. Otherwise, they will be delayed until the slot is filled
Role pms will be going out shortly. Please remember you are not allowed to directly quote a pm from a mod. Please do not post until the day post when the game will officially begin.
Rita: Ahh! After 10,000 years I'm free! It's time to conquer Earth! Zordon: Alpha, Rita's escaped! Recruit a team of teenagers, with attitude! Alpha 5: Aye-yi-yi-yi-yi! Zordon, it appears that Rita has allied with the local mob to take over Newbieville! The fate of the town lies in the hands of the Power Rangers!
kitaman27 the Zordon has recruited nine Power Rangers to fight the forces of evil EchelonTee the Alpha 5 vote counting bot has had his circuits fried Erandorr the helpless bystander was devoured by Pudgy Pig GMarshal the Pony Cultist has escaped from Rita's dumpster as well! (Don't ask how he got there)
The game has officially begin. You have approximately 48 hours to determine your first lynch. The current deadline is scheduled for 02:00 GMT (+00:00). Good luck!
This is my second game on this forums. My previous game was Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII. To be very honest, I played pretty bad that game T_T and I hope I can play better in this one. You can take a look and check my meta if you wish. I don't mind.
The first lynch is very hard to achieve successfully due to the limited information we have at this moment. The most important thing at this phase of the game is to stay active. Usually, the mafia are able to push out a Townie lynch in Day 1 because inactive or lurkish players don't follow the rhythm of the thread and are prone to make unclear reads and staying out of contributing substantially. Therefore, they are rendered as uncooperative. Plus, they might not have the chance to defend themselves and that pretty much seals their lynch. We obviously don't want this situation to happen, so please be active. Try to post as much good content as you can. This means that you shouldn't post one liners or random fluff to clutter up the thread. Mafia is going to have an easy time hiding if we miss the direction of our goal, which is to lynch scum.
This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage.
Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent.
About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2.
I'll be on the thread for about an hour or so today. It seems that we don't have a wide variation of Time zones, so hopefully all of us can be discussing at the same time.
Rita: Ahh! After 10,000 years I'm free! It's time to conquer Earth! Zordon: Alpha, Rita's escaped! Recruit a team of teenagers, with attitude! Alpha 5: Aye-yi-yi-yi-yi! Zordon, it appears that Rita has allied with the local mob to take over Newbieville! The fate of the town lies in the hands of the Power Rangers!
kitaman27 the Zordon has recruited nine Power Rangers to fight the forces of evil EchelonTee the Alpha 5 vote counting bot has had his circuits fried Erandorr the helpless bystander was devoured by Pudgy Pig GMarshal the Pony Cultist has escaped from Rita's dumpster as well! (Don't ask how he got there)
The game has officially begin. You have approximately 48 hours to determine your first lynch. The current deadline is scheduled for 02:00 GMT (+00:00). Good luck!
what am i not important enough to die in the daypost???
I too feel that we should push for a lynch on day one. Mafia has nothing to lose with with a no lynch on day one, where the town loses the potential for more information with a lynch. That's why it's crucial that everyone posts their opinions on topics and stays active so we can get reads on everyone.
I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
I agree- We should get a first day lynch if possible. I see your point OtoshimonU about being at a disadvantage- but I think we won't be gathering any information if we DON'T lynch.... plus it gives mafia a free kill on the first night. I hope everyone stays active since that is pretty much the only way we will be able win.
One question to you Trackdoor, you say "Don't be afraid to accuse anyone", but we really don't know ANYTHING right now. I'd like to try to stick to the facts/logic that are presented. Your post sounds really bold for being a first post. I'm not saying there is anything particularly scummy about that.. just something I noticed!
On March 01 2012 12:30 Maverick32x wrote: I agree- We should get a first day lynch if possible. I see your point OtoshimonU about being at a disadvantage- but I think we won't be gathering any information if we DON'T lynch.... plus it gives mafia a free kill on the first night. I hope everyone stays active since that is pretty much the only way we will be able win.
One question to you Trackdoor, you say "Don't be afraid to accuse anyone", but we really don't know ANYTHING right now. I'd like to try to stick to the facts/logic that are presented. Your post sounds really bold for being a first post. I'm not saying there is anything particularly scummy about that.. just something I noticed!
I do believe that he got that quote from a Mafia Guide here on TL, and also it's his second time playing so he might have more experience that any of first timers.
On March 01 2012 12:30 Maverick32x wrote: I agree- We should get a first day lynch if possible. I see your point OtoshimonU about being at a disadvantage- but I think we won't be gathering any information if we DON'T lynch.... plus it gives mafia a free kill on the first night. I hope everyone stays active since that is pretty much the only way we will be able win.
One question to you Trackdoor, you say "Don't be afraid to accuse anyone", but we really don't know ANYTHING right now. I'd like to try to stick to the facts/logic that are presented. Your post sounds really bold for being a first post. I'm not saying there is anything particularly scummy about that.. just something I noticed!
I do believe that he got that quote from a Mafia Guide here on TL, and also it's his second time playing so he might have more experience that any of first timers.
Or maybe I confused his words with the mafia guide... Anyway, if everyone is willing to random lynch I will too,
On March 01 2012 12:14 DimmuKlok wrote: I too feel that we should push for a lynch on day one. Mafia has nothing to lose with with a no lynch on day one, where the town loses the potential for more information with a lynch. That's why it's crucial that everyone posts their opinions on topics and stays active so we can get reads on everyone.
I agree. However, we will lose our number advantage more rapidly if we do lynch someone just for the sake of lynching. If there's no potential for information to be gained by lynching him, then we should not do so.
Yeah, that phrase was regarding any moment of the game. In my last game, I actually nailed some scum reads on day 3, but as I didn't take an active role in the thread and many already drew suspicion upon me it was practically impossible to push them in that moment. That's why I make that clear.
By the way, that's the kind of observation we need Maverick. I appreciate that.
I just hope we won't have many inactive players the following hours.
On March 01 2012 12:14 DimmuKlok wrote: I too feel that we should push for a lynch on day one. Mafia has nothing to lose with with a no lynch on day one, where the town loses the potential for more information with a lynch. That's why it's crucial that everyone posts their opinions on topics and stays active so we can get reads on everyone.
I agree. However, we will lose our number advantage more rapidly if we do lynch someone just for the sake of lynching. If there's no potential for information to be gained by lynching him, then we should not do so.
No. We are better off to RL lynch someone. Town typically cannot kill players, so RL every day is required unless it cannot be afforded.
On March 01 2012 12:57 Sufficiency wrote: How many townies do we have? We should random lynch if we have a free lynch.
9 townies, 3 mafia atm. Not very good odds for getting a mafia in a random lynch imo. We should play it smart and only lynch to get information or to kill mafia. Not just blindly hope to get a mafia by pure luck.
Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
On March 01 2012 12:14 DimmuKlok wrote: I too feel that we should push for a lynch on day one. Mafia has nothing to lose with with a no lynch on day one, where the town loses the potential for more information with a lynch. That's why it's crucial that everyone posts their opinions on topics and stays active so we can get reads on everyone.
I agree. However, we will lose our number advantage more rapidly if we do lynch someone just for the sake of lynching. If there's no potential for information to be gained by lynching him, then we should not do so.
No. We are better off to RL lynch someone. Town typically cannot kill players, so RL every day is required unless it cannot be afforded.
I'm just saying that we should lynch people to get information. RL is fine if we have no suspicions to go on and it should be used as a last resort imo. I'm not opposed to RL, but there are better alternatives.
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
All I was saying is that we should use our lynches carefully. If you think that RL is better than actually thinking about who your going to lynch, what they said, and what information could be potentially gained by lynching them, that's your choice.
We shouldn't need to worry about a RL and I don't see the point in discussing one. Even if we don't have a solid case on someone after the first day, we would be better off lynching a lurker than someone at random. Mafia would love to not have to contribute.
The way I see it, if we don't do a day one Lynch, the mafia kills one of us. If we do a lynch, the mafia kills one of us and we get a chance to kill one of them. There is the chance that we'll lynch one of our own, but if we do, at least we get some info.
DimmuKlok is right. If we have to do a lynch without a strong case, lynching a lurker would be more effective than a RL seeing as how most mafia are lurkers. Also, lets wait before we decide to lynch someone because we don't need to worry about it right now.
On March 01 2012 12:14 DimmuKlok wrote: I too feel that we should push for a lynch on day one. Mafia has nothing to lose with with a no lynch on day one, where the town loses the potential for more information with a lynch. That's why it's crucial that everyone posts their opinions on topics and stays active so we can get reads on everyone.
I agree. However, we will lose our number advantage more rapidly if we do lynch someone just for the sake of lynching. If there's no potential for information to be gained by lynching him, then we should not do so.
I agree Gunman. I oppose any Random lynching.. I’d rather only do it for a reason. I’m going to touch a bit on this on my other posts… I’m finding some things a bit troubling with some of the other posters. You take this position again later on in the posts- and I like it. Trackd00r- Thank you. I agree. We need activity if we’re going to lynch successfully. What I’m most worried about is that the mafia are eyeing inactive townies and plan on trying to swing us in that direction…. Sufficiency- your posts REALLY made me think that you’re wanting to random lynch so that scum can get a 2 for 1. You make it sound like we’re in a very urgent situation- and I don’t see it that way.
Also- what does FoS stand for? I’m assuming its an indication that you think gunman is scum because he doesn’t want to kill anyone off. I’m not thinking Gunman is being suspicious- but rather doesn’t want to sacrifice a townie. As I discussed a bit above.
And wow, Sufficiency, you just keep accusing people with literally nothing to go on…. Tiystus- you’re in the same boat as Sufficiency- and it also makes me suspicious… Lastly friedchicken is also in the bandwagon…
So.. believe it or not guys.. Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency… 3 support randomly lynching…. And there are 3 mafia…. I’d like to hear more out of you guys- but the bandwagoning behind this idea is highly suspicious….
Just to be clear, I'm against a completely Random Lynch. But I would be up for finding out if any of those 3 are mafia.
Let me clarify my support of random lynching - it is a last ditch, last choice, and it is only better than a no-lynch, I will support anything else. This is my first game on the TL forums, but in games where there is no lynching on the first night, You see the mafia getting a free kill. I will not push for a RL, as it a bad thing to do, I will take a lynch with a hunch over a RL. (given the hunch has some back-up)
I want to just tie together my first post and my latest post. Re-Reading my original post sounds like I'm bloodthirsty to lynch someone, and I just want to be clear that my intention for lynching is that I suspect a Mafia. Not because I want to just search around.
Also, if anyone is curious, our current lurkers are Mementoss, Rainmaker, Pablols and Beorn. So I'd be really interested to hear what you guys have to say about our current discussion as well.
Lastly, I'd like Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency to explain to me the advantages of a Random Lynch and how doing so would be in the town's best interest. Keeping in mind we have a 75% chance of lynching a townie if we were do it randomly.
An RL would have a 75% chance of a town member dead, and 25% mafia. A townie will be killed off. so its a trade-off between getting 2 townies or a mafia & townie. While the chances are lower, the payoff is greater. It is betting with odds. If we lose, its still 7 to 3, while if we win, its 8 to 2. risky yes, but it can pay-off
If we are making completely random choices- this is how the numbers role out. (99% sure...)
Situation Ratio of Mafia:town___ Percent Mafia influence_______ Change in Mafia Percentage Right now 3: 9 ______________ 33% Mafia Best case: 1:4 ______________ 25% Mafia ______________ -8% difference ______________ 25% chance of this Worst Case: 3: 7 ______________43% Mafia _____________+10% difference ______________75% chance of this Nothing 3:8: ______________ 37.5%Mafia ______________+4.5% Difference ______________ Depends.
I'm not sure if this is helpful to anyone- but I'm finding this game really interesting!! I agree with your assessment that it will have a big payoff- but in all honesty, if we're thinking that a RL is the best option... not lynching will only result in slight change of the Mafia's influence, as opposed to the drastic choices associated with the other two. I guess I'm not much of a gambler- especially when there are 3 people in this thread who have an alternate agenda!! And we have 9 people still trying to orientate ourselves to 'who's, who'.
It would be a lot easier for the mafia to influence our decisions on a random townie- which they KNOW is a random townie, and we wouldn't even know it until they've been lynched, and we're left trying to piece it all together. Not to mention if we randomly lynch someone, its likely that we won't get any information since they wouldn't of posted any information in the first place!! So as much as a big payoff as it is for the Town, it also could potentially be a HUGE pay off for the mafia- even more than for Town.
One thing that obviously makes it difficult to go 'by the numbers' - is suspicions about certain people which make we feel like our percentage is a lot better that we'll hit a mafia.
I appreciate your response- but can you also let me know why you think it is so urgent to make this decision at this point in the game?
On March 01 2012 11:51 trackd00r wrote: Hi everyone, I hope you enjoy the game.
This is my second game on this forums. My previous game was Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII. To be very honest, I played pretty bad that game T_T and I hope I can play better in this one. You can take a look and check my meta if you wish. I don't mind.
The first lynch is very hard to achieve successfully due to the limited information we have at this moment. The most important thing at this phase of the game is to stay active. Usually, the mafia are able to push out a Townie lynch in Day 1 because inactive or lurkish players don't follow the rhythm of the thread and are prone to make unclear reads and staying out of contributing substantially. Therefore, they are rendered as uncooperative. Plus, they might not have the chance to defend themselves and that pretty much seals their lynch. We obviously don't want this situation to happen, so please be active. Try to post as much good content as you can. This means that you shouldn't post one liners or random fluff to clutter up the thread. Mafia is going to have an easy time hiding if we miss the direction of our goal, which is to lynch scum.
This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage.
Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent.
About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2.
I'll be on the thread for about an hour or so today. It seems that we don't have a wide variation of Time zones, so hopefully all of us can be discussing at the same time.
Seems really suspicious, almost like he is trying too hard to prove his innocence without real proof. He also uses "we" as if he already proved himself too be innocent, it sounds very suspicious.
@ maverick, the game is indeed really interesting. Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks. They have almost 100% chance of getting a townie every single night, we have the advantage of having more people making it viable to take risks, if we do not lynch we will be on almost the same position tomorrow, but one down. They have much more to lose if we nail a scum than if we lose a townie, so I think we should probably lynch someone who is asking for no lynch.
On March 01 2012 15:00 Maverick32x wrote: I want to just tie together my first post and my latest post. Re-Reading my original post sounds like I'm bloodthirsty to lynch someone, and I just want to be clear that my intention for lynching is that I suspect a Mafia. Not because I want to just search around.
Also, if anyone is curious, our current lurkers are Mementoss, Rainmaker, Pablols and Beorn. So I'd be really interested to hear what you guys have to say about our current discussion as well.
Lastly, I'd like Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency to explain to me the advantages of a Random Lynch and how doing so would be in the town's best interest. Keeping in mind we have a 75% chance of lynching a townie if we were do it randomly.
Apologies, I wasn't clear in my first post. I feel lynching a lurker or someone we suspect to be a Mafia is most definitively better then a RL. I don't feel RL is the best option, just better then not lynching anybody.
To quote Pablols:
"They have almost 100% chance of getting a townie every single night, we have the advantage of having more people making it viable to take risks, if we do not lynch we will be on almost the same position tomorrow, but one down. They have much more to lose if we nail a scum than if we lose a townie "
tl;dr If we don't have anyone to lynch, I think a RL lynch would be better then a no-lynch.
Maverick, FoS stands for finger of suspicion. You can use it to bring more attention to that player, and is also often used to show who you plan on voting to lynch before actually voting for them. Your basically telling everyone that that person looks suspicions and that people should keep their eye on them.
First game here, so maybe I don't understand completely whats going on. But i'm pretty sure Random Lynch isn't the solution.. We really have barely any information to go off of other than the people that support Random Lynching, vs the people that oppose the Random Lynch. Additionally, we can look at the way in which the people are either stating their opinion on this discussion, or rather pushing their opinion on the rest of the town.
I am opposed to the general idea of the Random Lynch, it is highly risky, there will be one of us leaving no matter what. So that will put us at 8-3. -->73% Chance we get a townie, now I can see the logic for a Random Lynch, but not in this circumstance. Maybe if it was 50/50.
I would say the generally, the people pushing for the Random Lynch, not just stating they agree, but saying things such as its required, or it would be stupid not to are scum. Also I am generally confused with trackd00rs play. He is the first to be active and brings up the idea of the random lynch. He pushes it by saying we lose if we don't get a good lynch early. He also pushes his "innocence" by showing his experience in play, and saying he's bad at the game (not a threat). His back and forth opinions, are possibly of a liar, or someone set to confuse the town. Lets analyze some of his filter here.
This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage.
Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent.
About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2.
^^ Here trackd00r is all about the Random Lynch, it was his idea of course hes with it.
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
^^ Here trackd00r is all opposed to the Random Lynch. What is he trying to do here. He's not helping the gathering of information, hes keeping the debate of the Random Lynch alive, rather than actually looking for helpful information. Killing more of the towns time.
In terms of the information I brought up, it was mainly designed to highlight the risk of randomly just choosing someone. Again, lynching someone we suspect is a lot different then randomly doing it.. Unless I'm mistaken by what we mean by 'random'.....
Friedchicken: This is my biggest concern when it comes to lynching a lurker, and you guys can tell me I'm wrong, or that its stupid. Lets say all 3 mafia are being active right now. Wouldn't it make sense that they would want us to lynch someone who is not being active, since they KNOW that we would be lynching a town? They wouldn't even have to influence this decision, but just stay back and watch us kill someone. And then after we kill them, we would of literally made NO progress, and now be playing from even more behind.
Mementoss: Thanks for posting. Concerning Trackd00r: My only thought is that his first post you quoted kinda doesn't imply that he's for a random lynch.. but that he would like to try to lynch someone the first day. I think these are two extremely different perspectives.
Right now I'm FoS'ing Sufficiency. Accusatory out of nowhere, almost picking a fight with multiple people who really haven't given any information. And then is suspicious of someone because they don't want to take a huge risk? Just seems like he has a bit of an agenda to push... Not to mention it really didn't sit with me very well that he just accuses someone, yet has LITERALLY no proof/logic besides "he's a compromiser". What say you Sufficiency? Or anyone else about my assessment so far?
Sorry I'm late, midterm sneaked up like a little cunt.
Anyway, I'm not sold that we have strong evidence against anyone currently, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't lynch on the first night. In the end, even i we randomly lynch a townie that just means there's less noise to help find the mafia later.
Bare in mind this my first game of mafia in a few years so I might just be wrong.
Rereading trackd00r's filter, I see my mistake now. I read it as both concerning towards random lynch. But really, it was just being opposed to a no lynch and opposed to a random lynch. Sorry for the hasty accusations trackd00r. I am still not convinced, but I agree Maverick that you bring up some better suspects.
Friedchicken --> Stance: no lynch better than random lynch. About your point about lynching a lurker, it makes sense that if mafia is active than lynching a lurker could definitely be a safe bet for them. But on the other hand lynching a lurker is a risk free way of not hurting the town. Lurkers aren't helping us gather information to find scum and there is a possibility of them actually being mafia. That being said I think we have better options right now.
Sufficiency --> Stance: Pushing RL. FoS: OtoshimonoU, gunman103. -He is quick to FoS people, given little information and FoS multiple people at once. Also starting an argument for the sake of wasting posts/making the thread confusing. No logic towards OtoshimonoU, but I think it worth looking at his filter next.
OtoshimonoU --> Stance: Initially against any sort of first day lynch, then tries to blend by saying he will follow the major if they want a random lynch. - His filter is filled with 1 liners, most that contribute nothing. His opinion follows the trend of the thread. First post is actually him asking opinions of others rather than stating his own.
I'm generally in agreement with you maverick. I would consider Sufficiency suspicious. I'm not really with you on Friedchicken yet, you didn't provide anything related to him. Just the situation if mafia are all active.
On March 01 2012 23:13 Mementoss wrote: First game here, so maybe I don't understand completely whats going on. But i'm pretty sure Random Lynch isn't the solution.. We really have barely any information to go off of other than the people that support Random Lynching, vs the people that oppose the Random Lynch. Additionally, we can look at the way in which the people are either stating their opinion on this discussion, or rather pushing their opinion on the rest of the town.
I am opposed to the general idea of the Random Lynch, it is highly risky, there will be one of us leaving no matter what. So that will put us at 8-3. -->73% Chance we get a townie, now I can see the logic for a Random Lynch, but not in this circumstance. Maybe if it was 50/50.
I would say the generally, the people pushing for the Random Lynch, not just stating they agree, but saying things such as its required, or it would be stupid not to are scum. Also I am generally confused with trackd00rs play. He is the first to be active and brings up the idea of the random lynch. He pushes it by saying we lose if we don't get a good lynch early. He also pushes his "innocence" by showing his experience in play, and saying he's bad at the game (not a threat). His back and forth opinions, are possibly of a liar, or someone set to confuse the town. Lets analyze some of his filter here.
This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage.
Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent.
About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2.
^^ Here trackd00r is all about the Random Lynch, it was his idea of course hes with it.
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
^^ Here trackd00r is all opposed to the Random Lynch. What is he trying to do here. He's not helping the gathering of information, hes keeping the debate of the Random Lynch alive, rather than actually looking for helpful information. Killing more of the towns time.
Thats my thoughts anyways.
@Memetoss: You are misinterpreting my words. In that post I never mentioned that I was in favor of a random lynch. By no means I was trying to push one. I just said that I don't want a no-lynch because we will lack of information later on. That doesn't imply that I'm giving priority to a random lynch.
@Marverick: I appreciate your activity, but I need to say that making those kind of probability calculations are not really worth it IMO. It will be barely of any use later, as we are trying to not lynch someone just because of the sake of doing it.
The reason why I don't like a random lynch it's because it's likely to be mafia play. Targeting someone randomly pretty much sets the fuse to chaos and instability in the thread, and then scum they can freely fall back. That's what we need to avoid.
That's what I have to say at the moment. We shouldn't be talking about lynch policies too long.
@Mementoss- Agreed, my other two reads (Fried and Tiystus) I'm not as confident in. So I am open to reconsidering. OtoshimonoU is a good read on your part- I'll keep my eye on it. I like your reasoning on it with the "follows what is the trend". I'll be interested to see how that pans out.
@RainMaker- Thats a good point- but I guess thats an issue of do we want to lynch someone because they're not playing the game well? I think its important to remember that our goal is to get mafia. But I do see your point.
@Trackd00r- haha, the calculations were a bit much, I agree. I'm trying to prevent a random lynch. I see a lynch as an opportunity to actually use the information we have to see if its accurate- not as chance to get 'lucky'....
How much time do we have before a vote? I'm thinking that we may get some information from that?
On March 02 2012 01:28 Maverick32x wrote: @Mementoss- Agreed, my other two reads (Fried and Tiystus) I'm not as confident in. So I am open to reconsidering. OtoshimonoU is a good read on your part- I'll keep my eye on it. I like your reasoning on it with the "follows what is the trend". I'll be interested to see how that pans out.
@RainMaker- Thats a good point- but I guess thats an issue of do we want to lynch someone because they're not playing the game well? I think its important to remember that our goal is to get mafia. But I do see your point.
@Trackd00r- haha, the calculations were a bit much, I agree. I'm trying to prevent a random lynch. I see a lynch as an opportunity to actually use the information we have to see if its accurate- not as chance to get 'lucky'....
How much time do we have before a vote? I'm thinking that we may get some information from that?
Yeah, I realize that's not the kindest method of playing, but the win condition is to make sure there are no mafia left. Not to make sure we never hit a townie.
If people are opposed to a random lynch, please lets move forward with some sort of organized lynch. I've got to head to class, but I'll post my thoughts on who I think is suspicious later on.
On March 02 2012 01:28 Maverick32x wrote: @Mementoss- Agreed, my other two reads (Fried and Tiystus) I'm not as confident in. So I am open to reconsidering. OtoshimonoU is a good read on your part- I'll keep my eye on it. I like your reasoning on it with the "follows what is the trend". I'll be interested to see how that pans out.
@RainMaker- Thats a good point- but I guess thats an issue of do we want to lynch someone because they're not playing the game well? I think its important to remember that our goal is to get mafia. But I do see your point.
@Trackd00r- haha, the calculations were a bit much, I agree. I'm trying to prevent a random lynch. I see a lynch as an opportunity to actually use the information we have to see if its accurate- not as chance to get 'lucky'....
How much time do we have before a vote? I'm thinking that we may get some information from that?
Yeah, I realize that's not the kindest method of playing, but the win condition is to make sure there are no mafia left. Not to make sure we never hit a townie.
If people are opposed to a random lynch, please lets move forward with some sort of organized lynch. I've got to head to class, but I'll post my thoughts on who I think is suspicious later on.
That's exactly what we are doing right now. We're moving forward with an organized lynch by starting discussing who we think are suspicious. People who seemed to be relatively active early in the thread haven't been by today. It will be interesting to see what their thoughts are, as well as when you and Trackd00r get back. Also to answer mavericks question I think in the rules it says 48 hour days 24 hour nights.
Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
I am opposed to the general idea of the Random Lynch, it is highly risky, there will be one of us leaving no matter what. So that will put us at 8-3. -->73% Chance we get a townie, now I can see the logic for a Random Lynch, but not in this circumstance. Maybe if it was 50/50.
In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. Three of us are scum. They get to act as a group and they can easily influence us on day 1 since there is not much information. Also, they have 3 votes to easily tip the scales if we were deciding between two players. Then again, how do we go about lynching at random? Is it possible to vote for the admin to do a random lynch? If not, then doing it random isn't an option.
On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote: Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
I am opposed to the general idea of the Random Lynch, it is highly risky, there will be one of us leaving no matter what. So that will put us at 8-3. -->73% Chance we get a townie, now I can see the logic for a Random Lynch, but not in this circumstance. Maybe if it was 50/50.
In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. Three of us are scum. They get to act as a group and they can easily influence us on day 1 since there is not much information. Also, they have 3 votes to easily tip the scales if we were deciding between two players. Then again, how do we go about lynching at random? Is it possible to vote for the admin to do a random lynch? If not, then doing it random isn't an option.
No, random lynch is not good at all. Better to go on some hunch. We already have a few little hunches that I would rather go on then just nothing at all. We also have someone who is inactive thus far. Those are 2 better options then random lynch.
Also, looking at Pablols filter, Stance: Random Lynch, lynch someone who opposes the lynch. --> Labels first post of the game as suspicious. 1 liner, no real logic to why its suspicious. Filler really.
--> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves.
-->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie.
-->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching. The general consensus of those without scummy tendencies have been to try and figure out a good candidate to lynch or lynch no one at all. He is really trying to push a lynch no matter what, risky play. As the townie mafia numbers get closer, the mafia advantage rises significantly. Two bad lynches could be game. Logic should be our weapon, not rolling the dice.
All in all lynching someone with no basis is an absolutely terrible option in this situation. Some circumstances in the game where you cannot risk the scum even getting 1 up, and you have no leads is a good situation to pick someone at random. This is not the case. We currently hold our people advantage and there is no desperation at this point in the game.
That being said I think we have some decent information to come up with the best lynchable candidate and we should try to keep discussing to get as much information out there as we can based on peoples post behavior.
Here are my top picks for scum right now: OtoshimonoU Pablols Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote: Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum??
On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote: Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum??
I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others.
On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote: Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum??
I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others.
He wasn't complaining about your inactivity, in fact, other than me your one of the most active. In fact he's complaining about your (Post) to (Meaningful Post). Right now that ratio is 6:1. You've had seven posts, only one in which discusses what the town should be doing/ has some sort of active strategic value for getting rid of scum. Here it is:
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Stating how you are against a first day lynch. All other posts have been filler. Even this post here is suspicious as you try to draw attention away from yourself and towards someone who is a non-poster. After that post you either post something that has nothing to do with anything. Or post something that agrees with someone 1 or more people have said, trying to blend in with ideas. This is the reason you posts have 0 content. Cause you don't want to attract attention to yourself by having a unique opinion.
On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote: Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum??
I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others.
He wasn't complaining about your inactivity, in fact, other than me your one of the most active. In fact he's complaining about your (Post) to (Meaningful Post). Right now that ratio is 6:1. You've had seven posts, only one in which discusses what the town should be doing/ has some sort of active strategic value for getting rid of scum. Here it is:
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Stating how you are against a first day lynch. All other posts have been filler. Even this post here is suspicious as you try to draw attention away from yourself and towards someone who is a non-poster. After that post you either post something that has nothing to do with anything. Or post something that agrees with someone 1 or more people have said, trying to blend in with ideas. This is the reason you posts have 0 content. Cause you don't want to attract attention to yourself by having a unique opinion.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhh, I see. So attracting attention to yourself is a good thing!
On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote: Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum??
I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others.
He wasn't complaining about your inactivity, in fact, other than me your one of the most active. In fact he's complaining about your (Post) to (Meaningful Post). Right now that ratio is 6:1. You've had seven posts, only one in which discusses what the town should be doing/ has some sort of active strategic value for getting rid of scum. Here it is:
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Stating how you are against a first day lynch. All other posts have been filler. Even this post here is suspicious as you try to draw attention away from yourself and towards someone who is a non-poster. After that post you either post something that has nothing to do with anything. Or post something that agrees with someone 1 or more people have said, trying to blend in with ideas. This is the reason you posts have 0 content. Cause you don't want to attract attention to yourself by having a unique opinion.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhh, I see. So attracting attention to yourself is a good thing!
I need to go eat supper now will be back later tonight, but let me leave you with this question that you will hopefully answer before my return. Who do you think is scum based on the current situations and clearly outline why using physiological reason /evidence and quotes. Maybe asking questions is the only way to get some sort of articulate posting out of you.
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote: [ Also, looking at Pablols filter, Stance: Random Lynch, lynch someone who opposes the lynch. --> Labels first post of the game as suspicious. 1 liner, no real logic to why its suspicious. Filler really.
--> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves.
-->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie.
-->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching. The general consensus of those without scummy tendencies have been to try and figure out a good candidate to lynch or lynch no one at all. He is really trying to push a lynch no matter what, risky play. As the townie mafia numbers get closer, the mafia advantage rises significantly. Two bad lynches could be game. Logic should be our weapon, not rolling the dice.
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Seriously? It seems like you either trying to take things out of context or just skimming through my posts.
-->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie.
I contradict myself? I never wanted passive play, that is stupid, like I said on this post: "They have almost 100% chance of getting a townie every single night, we have the advantage of having more people making it viable to take risks, if we do not lynch we will be on almost the same position tomorrow, but one down. They have much more to lose if we nail a scum than if we lose a townie"
You quote "In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " You left out "Three of us are scum. They get to act as a group and they can easily influence us on day 1 since there is not much information. Also, they have 3 votes to easily tip the scales if we were deciding between two players." ------- --> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves.
Of course if you take one sentence out of a post it will say nothing. You just looked at the first PART of that sentence, and ignored everything after "however". Or maybe you are taking it out of context purposely?
You quote "Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." You left out "They have almost 100% chance of getting a townie every single night, we have the advantage of having more people making it viable to take risks, if we do not lynch we will be on almost the same position tomorrow, but one down. They have much more to lose if we nail a scum than if we lose a townie, so I think we should probably lynch someone who is asking for no lynch."
-->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching.
What? Maybe I'm seeing this wrong but everyone was talking about random lynching, because it's a huge part of day 1. The one derailing is you, you didn't even read my posts and then you jump to accusing people. This is the reason why we shouldn't go on someone's hunch when choosing who to lynch on day one. You are jumping to conclusions without any real proof. It seems like you should really read more careful because just looking at page 5 we can see the same thing happening. You called out someone, trying to take his words out of context and when he confronted you, you just backed down.
Mementoss: "Rereading trackd00r's filter, I see my mistake now. I read it as both concerning towards random lynch. But really, it was just being opposed to a no lynch and opposed to a random lynch. Sorry for the hasty accusations trackd00r. I am still not convinced, but I agree Maverick that you bring up some better suspects."
If we were to lynch someone on day one it should probably be this guy, I do not have enough proof to say he is scum but even if he isn't we can agree he is dangerous because he either doesn't take the time to read an entire post or he is scum.
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote: Here are my top picks for scum right now: OtoshimonoU Pablols Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy post
Honestly, the only people who should jump to conclusions like that list are scum, it's only day one and unless you know who not to vote for you wouldn't be calling people out like that. You didn't even give real reasoning to why Sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are on that list
"All in all lynching someone with no basis is an absolutely terrible option in this situation. Some circumstances in the game where you cannot risk the scum even getting 1 up, and you have no leads is a good situation to pick someone at random. This is not the case. We currently hold our people advantage and there is no desperation at this point in the game."
You said it yourself. But you really seem to be trying really hard to blame someone with no basis so that we organize and lynch then day 1.. As you can read on my other posts I was thinking that random post was the best option because of the lack of information, but now I think I know who I should vote for. You're dangerous to the town even if you're not scum
@Pablo I see that you're getting defensive and that you're worried that you're becoming a target (either because you're scum or town, I dont know?) but either way, you're accusing Mementoss of coming up with information out of nowhere, but I'm seeing the direction that he is taking- and I understand it. You're contradicting a lot...I think trying to shift the blame onto Mementoss is not helping your case either...
@Mementoss- Good reads. I also want to hear more from sufficiency!!! I know you guys are looking at OtoshimonoU and Pablols, but I didn't get a good a read off them intially... however based on that last post, I will agree that these are my main 3 suspects. Also I specifically asked a couple questions to some people, and I'm curious to see if they're sidestepped or if they confront the question..
edit: Just to be clear, I pointed out 2 other Tiystus and friedchicken based off their bandwagoning with Sufficiency... I'm still suspicious of those two, but I'm willing to give them time to respond.. .
But Mementoss has a good argument for OtoshimonU and Pablols as well... obviously they all can't be mafia.. but those are the people that are sticking out suspiciously at this moment..
I'm hoping that my 'suspicions' are well explained and logical, I don't want to appear bloodthirsty, but I also think its important to apply some pressure and see what pans out.
Also just checked the filter for Trackd00r, for a guy saying that the activity is really low in the game, he sure hasn't contributed much of ANYTHING.... I hadn't noticed that until now. Also nitpicking at specific words someone says? I still don't understand the "are" thing as a 'slipup' or a tell? I'm worried that he may be trying to lead us into a strange place with this style of analysis.. I'm more focused on content, less on if someone types the wrong thing....
Hey guy was just now able to read through the thread and have time to post. I haven't played a mafia yet on TL but I've played the custom game quite a bit (which I know really isn't too much like this since we have much more time) but it seems the vast majority of the time you lynch on the first night it turns out bad.
However with that said, we do have much more time to get reads on everyone so if a good hunch is found out I'm game for a first night lynch. Definitely prefer it to not be random which it seems everyone agrees.
Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads.
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote: No, random lynch is not good at all. Better to go on some hunch. We already have a few little hunches that I would rather go on then just nothing at all. We also have someone who is inactive thus far. Those are 2 better options then random lynch.
Also, looking at Pablols filter, Stance: Random Lynch, lynch someone who opposes the lynch. --> Labels first post of the game as suspicious. 1 liner, no real logic to why its suspicious. Filler really.
--> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves.
-->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie.
-->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching. The general consensus of those without scummy tendencies have been to try and figure out a good candidate to lynch or lynch no one at all. He is really trying to push a lynch no matter what, risky play. As the townie mafia numbers get closer, the mafia advantage rises significantly. Two bad lynches could be game. Logic should be our weapon, not rolling the dice.
All in all lynching someone with no basis is an absolutely terrible option in this situation. Some circumstances in the game where you cannot risk the scum even getting 1 up, and you have no leads is a good situation to pick someone at random. This is not the case. We currently hold our people advantage and there is no desperation at this point in the game.
That being said I think we have some decent information to come up with the best lynchable candidate and we should try to keep discussing to get as much information out there as we can based on peoples post behavior.
Here are my top picks for scum right now: OtoshimonoU Pablols Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote: Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
I know you didn't bold that part. I took it out and post it as a quote. What I wanted to point out is that you were refereing to the town as 'them'. If you use that conjugation, it could mean that you are mafia addressing to town. In that moment, I thought it might be probably a newbie mistake.
Now you are defending yourself in a quite weird way:
On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote: Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum??
I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others.
I didn't attack you because of your inactivity, I pointed you because you didn't contribute that much in that moment compared to other people like friedchicken or maverick. You don't really want to point fingers, or to take the lead of the opinions. It looks like you are just checking the thread. What do you think about the Sufficiency situation? Or Pablols?
Getting away with one liners might be a more than enough justification of newbiness in an active mafia game, but doing it now leaves you more exposed. Even when you defended yourself, you didn't touch any other of the issues present here. That's why I'm getting more suspicious of your actions.
You said you don't tend to to kick the same point over and over. You don't do it because you haven't posted substantially yet, or at least you don't appear to. It's like saying that you don't get bad grades on a certain class because you don't attend it.
If you are town, prove it by taking a more active role.
The voting thread is now available here. Make sure to post there if you want your vote to count. You may change your vote as many times as you wish during the course of the day.
I have some things on my mind that I want to post and will post within the next few hours before I go to bed. I'm kind of waiting it out to hear some other peoples opinions/people to respond and speak up. cough* OtoshimonoU cough*
Now, regarding Pablols, he has a null read for me at the moment.
For one part, I think that his defense was pretty spontaneous. He doesn't recognize any contradiction in those quotes, and neither do I. I think you might be pushing too hard checking for any word that could be opposed to another. Those contradictions that mementoss explained were taken from incomplete statements. This can be really dangerous, because doing this that often can lead us to tunnel some players and lose any cred on them, just because other posters won't worry about he said, rather they'll worry how he say it. Plus, Pablols joined the thread some time after we started discussing, so it's proabable that he didn't make clear thoughts in a start and therefore, misinterpretations will take place.
But...
He actually wants to lynch mementoss because he claims dangerous play. He stated that twice:
On March 02 2012 06:23 Pablols wrote: (...) If we were to lynch someone on day one it should probably be this guy, I do not have enough proof to say he is scum but even if he isn't we can agree he is dangerous because he either doesn't take the time to read an entire post or he is scum.
On March 02 2012 06:35 Pablols wrote: As you can read on my other posts I was thinking that random post was the best option because of the lack of information, but now I think I know who I should vote for. You're dangerous to the town even if you're not scum
What bugs me is that he seems so confident about lynching him without looking at other players yet. He indirectly states that there is a probability that he isn't town and even he cant show us any evidence addressing this fact. Well, if he isn't 100% that he is scum, why does he take a conclusion like that? It looks like a OMGUS for me (when you accuse a player just because he accused you).
Add to that situation that he first post in his thread was drawing suspicion upon me, yet I don't see it materializes after that.
On March 01 2012 11:51 trackd00r wrote: Hi everyone, I hope you enjoy the game.
This is my second game on this forums. My previous game was Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII. To be very honest, I played pretty bad that game T_T and I hope I can play better in this one. You can take a look and check my meta if you wish. I don't mind.
The first lynch is very hard to achieve successfully due to the limited information we have at this moment. The most important thing at this phase of the game is to stay active. Usually, the mafia are able to push out a Townie lynch in Day 1 because inactive or lurkish players don't follow the rhythm of the thread and are prone to make unclear reads and staying out of contributing substantially. Therefore, they are rendered as uncooperative. Plus, they might not have the chance to defend themselves and that pretty much seals their lynch. We obviously don't want this situation to happen, so please be active. Try to post as much good content as you can. This means that you shouldn't post one liners or random fluff to clutter up the thread. Mafia is going to have an easy time hiding if we miss the direction of our goal, which is to lynch scum.
This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage.
Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent.
About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2.
I'll be on the thread for about an hour or so today. It seems that we don't have a wide variation of Time zones, so hopefully all of us can be discussing at the same time.
Seems really suspicious, almost like he is trying too hard to prove his innocence without real proof. He also uses "we" as if he already proved himself too be innocent, it sounds very suspicious.
Suddenly dropping suspicions is a often a scum trait.
Yeah, Mementoss is top of my list, I guess I was too direct on accusing him. I only suspect him, day 1 it's impossible to know. I just have a hunch.
Regarding my first post, the 2 liner one, I must admit it was pretty bad. It's the first time I play mafia and I am still getting the hang of it. When I posted that I hadn't even finished reading the guide to mafia threads. I don't blame you guys because it does look suspicious. After getting a better understanding of how this works I retract that statement, I do not suspect Trackdoor.
I stand on my position towards Mementoss and Maverick, both say I contradict myself. I don't see it... And it was not explained. It's important for people to defend themselves after being accused, it's the natural response and without it false accusations from scum would win them the game easily.
On March 02 2012 09:09 Mementoss wrote: How many hours before the voting thread closes?
I have some things on my mind that I want to post and will post within the next few hours before I go to bed. I'm kind of waiting it out to hear some other peoples opinions/people to respond and speak up. cough* OtoshimonoU cough*
Admin said: The game has officially begin. You have approximately 48 hours to determine your first lynch. The current deadline is scheduled for 21:00 EST (-05:00). Good luck!
I believe it should be tomorrow night? Is that right? I don't want to miss voting
Now that I have read more logic on the against RL, I do agree, that it is a bad idea. Not that it matters anymore, as hunches have been made since then. and The way Mementoss played on the words of Pablols is kinda sketchy, and he could be scum because of that.
I also would like to hear of Suffeciency again. I want to hear what he says after all this pointing of fingers. I think Dimmuklok is a townie for sure, or both he and Mementoss are scum.
Sorry for a short post, Thursdays are hell on my schedule. Ill have more time in 3 hours
Hey everybody, sorry that I'm not in the daytime .
Here are my thoughts on who seems like they MIGHT be scum based on their posts.
I've been reading the thread and it seems OtoshimonoU isn't really bringing anything to the table. All I've seen from him is unless posts and one stating he is against a lynch (seems suspicious)
Mementoss: Looks like he is stating his thought clearly and with the town in mind.(not suspicious right now)
Pabloas: Flip-flops on issues, points fingers without any logic behind his accusations.(suspicious)
Sufficiency: His posts are all one-liners, he doesn't state his opinions clearly, FoS's people without much proof.(suspicious)
Maverick32x: Seems he logical in his accusations and states his thoughts clearly.(not suspicious)
Beorn1: Hasn't post much. The one post he does have states something that we have a already decided.(not sure, leaning towards suspicious)
Trackd00r: Seems logical in his thoughts.(not suspicious)
Not sure about gunman, rainmaker, dimmuklok and tiystus
Those are my thoughts. Right now I'm leaning towards lynching OtoshimonoU or Pabloas.
Okay guys. This is ALL of my reads over the past day. Let me know what you think. If any is inaccurate let me know, but I broke it down into looking at each player's tendency to agree/disagree with someone else to see if there are any patterns of "allegiance" that I can spot. I also looked at behaviors that can be interpreted as either Mafia or Town. I obviously couldn't hit on everything, but these were the things that jumped out at me.. feel free to agree/disagree all you'd like. Lastly, I put in some miscellaneous information that I just thought was interesting or factual about a stance that the person had.
I obviously didn't write stuff about myself, but if you'd like to create one for me, go ahead.
Agrees with: Dimx2 Disagrees with: Sufficiency. Mafia Behaviors: A kind of wishy-washy with his policy. Starts to fall to RL as a last resort if necessary. Though previously stated he wants to lynch for info, he now is considering a RL, but would prefer a ‘lurker’. Town Behaviors: Doesn’t want to lynch unless there is information to be gained. Repeats this information. Reinforces this idea a third time Misc: Against random lynching. Should only lynch for info. .
Agrees with: Maverickx2 Disagrees with: Trackd00r but takes it back. Sufficiency, OtoshimonUx3, Friedchicken, Pablols Mafia Behaviors: Possibly keeping attention off himself by focusing on others, Especially OtoshimonoU. Town Behaviors: Against Random Lynch- presents a well thought out argument. Continues to detail out his reasoning. Consistent with the people he disagrees with and the people he suspects. Misc: Claims himself as one of the most active. True?
Agrees with: Dissagrees with: Mafia Behaviors: Willing to sac a townie. Responds very late with little substancex2 Town Behaviors: Misc: Wants to move onto a new topic since random lynch has been discussed to death.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r-> takes it back(after being exonerated by him), lightly disagrees with Maverick, Mementossx4 Mafia Behaviors: Brings it back to the RL, despite everyone moving on from it. Rambles on a bit at this point. Town Behaviors: Decently argues for a move to lynch in looking at the long term perspective, willing to take a risk. Puts a lot of effort into pointing out that Mementoss if taking his words out of context. Wants to lynch for a purpose. Misc: Randomly accuses Mementoss seemingly because he is upset that he was accussed. A bit overaction.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Mementoss Mafia Behaviors: Indecisive. Encouraging risky/chaotic behaviors.Still contradictory statements. Says Dim is town, but then also accuses him of possibly being mafia. Brings back the RL discussion (though he has been mia for awhile) Town Behaviors: Would rather go with a hunch than a RL, but feels a lynch is necessary or town will lose. Misc: all for random lynch- posts that he’s reluctant. Sticks with reluctance, but again is on the “we need to do something NOW train” Back tracks and now is saying RL is a last resort. Didn't answer numerous questions directed at him.
Agrees with: Trackd00r, Mementoss Disagress with Mafia Behaviors: First post indicates a strong desire to try to push for a lynch. Town Behaviors: Still thinks we could lynch a lurker to ‘flush out mafia’, but doesn’t want to randomly do it. Recognizes that we are talking circles about Random lynching or not and wants to change topics. Misc:wants to lynch on day 1. But wants to see active posters and seems to want to decide on someone. Against random lynching though.
Mafia Behaviors: Wants to RL- pushes this hard. Accusses without any evidence or reasoning. Town Behaviors: Agrees with: Disagrees with: Gunman, OtoshimonU
Mafia Behaviors: poor logic, wants to lynch no matter what. Flips kind of. Would be willing to lynch a lurker, not necessarily random. There could be only town that are lurking however, so this could be a setup. Town Behaviors:
Agrees with: Pablols Disagrees with: Sufficiency- then flips to say he is town. OtoshimonUx2 Mafia Behaviors: Seems eager in the initial post to try to get people to accuse others right away. Uses past game as evidence of his ability to hunt down mafia to try to set up innocence. Brings up that the activity is too low, but hasn’t posted much. Town Behaviors: Initial post is encouraging and pro-town. Continues this trend, wants to hear people talk. Doesn’t want to RL Misc:Seems positive about staying active. Focuses on wording as his evidence.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r and Dim Mafia Behaviors: Wishy-washy. Willing to along with everyone, seems to be trying to lie low. Town Behaviors: Recognizes the disadvantages of a first day lynch and feels its too hasty. Misc: Against first day lynching since town is at disadvantage- but will go along if everyone else will do it. Defends Trak’s usage of “accusing” and seems to support him.
@Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. I would say based on posts friedchicken and tiystus are low priority. But their low post count could be scummy. I disagree with trackd00r, he seems pro town. He promotes activity, talks opinions on town matters, and recently brought up a good point towards Pablols. Also this is the second time you mentioned yourself being "bloodthirsty" lol..
@trackd00r - I will stay away from partial quotes from now and keep them in context. Even in context, re-read Pablols filter and I still think it is consistent with what I said. I still have a scummy read Pablols.
I want to point out a couple of important things, I specifically asked OtU for his opinion in this post
On March 02 2012 06:21 Mementoss wrote: I need to go eat supper now will be back later tonight, but let me leave you with this question that you will hopefully answer before my return. Who do you think is scum based on the current situations and clearly outline why using physiological reason /evidence and quotes. Maybe asking questions is the only way to get some sort of articulate posting out of you.
And despite being an active poster for the 30 minutes before that defending him self in one liners, he suddenly dissapeared after this request. That was over 3 hours ago.
Another things I wanted to point out is the pressure has been getting people talking for better reads (Pablols, OtU) So town, keep this up, except we need more different posters. Without them, the town doesn't have to reply. On this point I made a list.
Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
Based on my little list above, I would like to purpose a Plan to the Town. Since voting is in the next 24 hours, I would like every one to post their top 2 scum reads within the next 12 hours. I want to know why they are your scum reads, quoting someone elses opinion is not acceptable. Must be backed up by some evidence, filter quotes, pyscological reasons why they would say that if they were scum, why their behaviour is scummy etc. Many people have said will post later scum opinions and never have.
Important READ THIS This plan will be pointless unless ALL town posts, if even 1 town does not post, the mafia can remain silent. If all town posts this forces mafia to post and might cause a slip, if they don't post suspicion is brought upon them. Right now we have about 6 barely active players, even if they are town they aren't coming up with ideas or opinions. This hurts everyones reads on scum.
People who have already posted their reads, me, trackd00r, and maverick. Feel free to re look at your reads and repost, but this plan is more focused towards the no opinion/little content posting section.
Peace, hopefully this will further prove/enforce some of my reads.
Well it looks like we all decided to spend some time making a good post haha
As for the 'bloodthirsty' comment.. I was reading through my filters and I seriously /facepalmed when I saw that I had written it twice.... I KNEW someone would mention it! I don't really have much else to say about it- I want to keep people pressured, but I don't want to be seen as reckless, emotional and illogical- because I don't make decisions that way.
Anyways, I'll follow through with your plan shortly.
Feel free to read through my reads for some more detail.
#1: Sufficiency: This guy gets accused HARD. Never responds and keeps lurking. His only response so far has been to accuse others. I didn't like how he just jumped out at people for seemingly no reason. #2: Tiystus: Just a ton of back and forth. Never makes a decision. Really seems to be trying to stay out of the spot light.
Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs. I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts.
Thank you for putting that list together, I like the idea of everyone posting their top suspects and the reasoning behind it. As of now this are my most suspected players
Sufficiency: I would really like for this guy to respond to some of the accusations, as it is now he seems to be dodging the questions. Maybe he is just busy with real life, but if he doesn't post again he is definitely worth looking at.
Mementoss: I have already explained in detail why I think his accusation towards me was illegitimate since he only responded to parts of my posts and left out crucial information. That is the reason why I think he could be scum, we should never misquote people or leave out important information when calling someone out.
Maverick: I suspect you less than the other two, but I must say that the following post made me feel as if you have some sort of connection with Mementoss:
"@Mementoss- Good reads. I also want to hear more from sufficiency!!! I know you guys are looking at OtoshimonoU and Pablols, but I didn't get a good a read off them intially... however based on that last post, I will agree that these are my main 3 suspects. Also I specifically asked a couple questions to some people, and I'm curious to see if they're sidestepped or if they confront the question.. "
You have the same suspects, and Mementoss later on responds to you in a friendly manner: "... Also this is the second time you mentioned yourself being "bloodthirsty" lol.."
Thank you for putting that list together, I like the idea of everyone posting their top suspects and the reasoning behind it. As of now this are my most suspected players
Sufficiency: I would really like for this guy to respond to some of the accusations, as it is now he seems to be dodging the questions. Maybe he is just busy with real life, but if he doesn't post again he is definitely worth looking at.
Mementoss: I have already explained in detail why I think his accusation towards me was illegitimate since he only responded to parts of my posts and left out crucial information. That is the reason why I think he could be scum, we should never misquote people or leave out important information when calling someone out.
Maverick: I suspect you less than the other two, but I must say that the following post made me feel as if you have some sort of connection with Mementoss:
"@Mementoss- Good reads. I also want to hear more from sufficiency!!! I know you guys are looking at OtoshimonoU and Pablols, but I didn't get a good a read off them intially... however based on that last post, I will agree that these are my main 3 suspects. Also I specifically asked a couple questions to some people, and I'm curious to see if they're sidestepped or if they confront the question.. "
You have the same suspects, and Mementoss later on responds to you in a friendly manner: "... Also this is the second time you mentioned yourself being "bloodthirsty" lol.."
Dude we have some sort of freaking connection too. I 100% agree with your suspicions on Mementoss, He does attack everyone other than the selected maverick. Mementoss has done an excellent job pushing the accusations on those that seem off from his point of view to get rid of his suspicion and lead every accusation and funnily enough he puts himself a person that is not suspicious. He's very aggressive and myself I like to keep my patience and move slowly because town has a number advantage. Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
On March 02 2012 11:04 OtoshimonoU wrote: Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs. I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts.
I just don't understand why you jump to the thread, having like 3 people accusing you and yet you bring up a highly WIFOMy case (based on mostly speculation). It looks like you are just skimming through the thread.
These kinds of traits might happen subconsciously, and the connections between players don't really represent their alignment. Often, players tend to agree with others because they like their style of posting, or just by the fact they give town reads to each other. There are another stances where we can spot any scummy link. A good example of putting this on practice is the plan brought up by mementoss. But I repeat, these connections often happen, and mafia will actually try to hide them
Oto: It's kinda weird though, because you claim that others are taking the lead of the thread. The rest are the only ones that, well, can like prevent this to happen if it was actually of any problem. This includes you, and I haven't seen something substantial from your part.
I agree with you on this, everyone needs to be more active. More interactions among more people will result on more information to analyze and then maybe we can make day 1 lynch an educated group decision we won't regret instead of just 3 or 4 players doing everything. Although I suspect Maverick and Momentoss I like the fact that they post often, it's great and we shouldn't discourage it. ----- If it seems like they are taking control of the thread then post, and challenge them when you don't agree. We are all equal at this point and everyone's opinion is worth hearing.
#1 Tiystus- He was fine with randomly killing someone early on but then changes his mind later. Seems like one of his scum friends told him what to say. He also never seems to make a decision on anything. #2 Pablols- I think that he overreacted to Mementoss and accuses him with no real reason other than that he was accused by Mementoss. Also, he accuses trackdoor pretty early on in the game with no real evidence against him other than "he is trying too hard to prove his innocence without real proof" a weak argument imo.
Mementoss would probably be third simply because he left out a lot of Pablol's statement and left out crucial information. Seems like a scummy thing to do imo. You should never intentionally misquote someone, even though it probably was an accident, you never know.
If it seems like they are taking control of the thread then post, and challenge them when you don't agree. We are all equal at this point and everyone's opinion is worth hearing.
I just want to stress this last point. I admit that my posts are gigantic. As for not analyzing myself- feel free to!! The spot is left blank for anyone to put in information about me. I did that on purpose, and even pointed it out. So I encourage anyone to challenge what I'm saying. I posted that to get feedback- not to assert control over everyone.
If you read through my spoilers Oto, I specifically point out that Mementoss is shifting the focus off himself and onto you consistently. I enjoy his style of analysis, and I'm liking how thorough he is with his analysis, and in that way we are both similar. Do I agree with everything he says? No. Do I like to have someone to bounce ideas around with? Yes.
Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
On March 02 2012 11:54 gunman103 wrote: Sorry I haven't been able to post much.
#1 Tiystus- He was fine with randomly killing someone early on but then changes his mind later. Seems like one of his scum friends told him what to say. He also never seems to make a decision on anything. #2 Pablols- I think that he overreacted to Mementoss and accuses him with no real reason other than that he was accused by Mementoss. Also, he accuses trackdoor pretty early on in the game with no real evidence against him other than "he is trying too hard to prove his innocence without real proof" a weak argument imo.
Mementoss would probably be third simply because he left out a lot of Pablol's statement and left out crucial information. Seems like a scummy thing to do imo. You should never intentionally misquote someone, even though it probably was an accident, you never know.
Just to clarify I accused mementoss because of the misquote issue, that's it. Other people have called me out but I have had no reason to suspect them and I didn't accuse them. For example, your post, there is no reason to suspect anything. But like I said, misquoting is dangerous play and shouldn't be taking lightly. Even if he isn't part of the mafia, in my opinion, he could be dangerous to the town.
Regarding the trackdoor accusation I already took that back,
"Regarding my first post, the 2 liner one, I must admit it was pretty bad. It's the first time I play mafia and I am still getting the hang of it. When I posted that I hadn't even finished reading the guide to mafia threads. I don't blame you guys because it does look suspicious. After getting a better understanding of how this works I retract that statement, I do not suspect Trackdoor."
On March 02 2012 11:54 gunman103 wrote: Sorry I haven't been able to post much.
#1 Tiystus- He was fine with randomly killing someone early on but then changes his mind later. Seems like one of his scum friends told him what to say. He also never seems to make a decision on anything. #2 Pablols- I think that he overreacted to Mementoss and accuses him with no real reason other than that he was accused by Mementoss. Also, he accuses trackdoor pretty early on in the game with no real evidence against him other than "he is trying too hard to prove his innocence without real proof" a weak argument imo.
Mementoss would probably be third simply because he left out a lot of Pablol's statement and left out crucial information. Seems like a scummy thing to do imo. You should never intentionally misquote someone, even though it probably was an accident, you never know.
Just to clarify I accused mementoss because of the misquote issue, that's it. Other people have called me out but I have had no reason to suspect them and I didn't accuse them. For example, your post, there is no reason to suspect anything. But like I said, misquoting is dangerous play and shouldn't be taking lightly. Even if he isn't part of the mafia, in my opinion, he could be dangerous to the town.
Regarding the trackdoor accusation I already took that back,
"Regarding my first post, the 2 liner one, I must admit it was pretty bad. It's the first time I play mafia and I am still getting the hang of it. When I posted that I hadn't even finished reading the guide to mafia threads. I don't blame you guys because it does look suspicious. After getting a better understanding of how this works I retract that statement, I do not suspect Trackdoor."
I read your post again and I was wrong. Sorry for the misinterpreting what you said. For all it's worth Tiystus is still #1 and mementoss is #2.
On March 02 2012 10:36 Maverick32x wrote: Okay guys. This is ALL of my reads over the past day. Let me know what you think. If any is inaccurate let me know, but I broke it down into looking at each player's tendency to agree/disagree with someone else to see if there are any patterns of "allegiance" that I can spot. I also looked at behaviors that can be interpreted as either Mafia or Town. I obviously couldn't hit on everything, but these were the things that jumped out at me.. feel free to agree/disagree all you'd like. Lastly, I put in some miscellaneous information that I just thought was interesting or factual about a stance that the person had.
I obviously didn't write stuff about myself, but if you'd like to create one for me, go ahead.
Agrees with: Dimx2 Disagrees with: Sufficiency. Mafia Behaviors: A kind of wishy-washy with his policy. Starts to fall to RL as a last resort if necessary. Though previously stated he wants to lynch for info, he now is considering a RL, but would prefer a ‘lurker’. Town Behaviors: Doesn’t want to lynch unless there is information to be gained. Repeats this information. Reinforces this idea a third time Misc: Against random lynching. Should only lynch for info. .
Agrees with: Maverickx2 Disagrees with: Trackd00r but takes it back. Sufficiency, OtoshimonUx3, Friedchicken, Pablols Mafia Behaviors: Possibly keeping attention off himself by focusing on others, Especially OtoshimonoU. Town Behaviors: Against Random Lynch- presents a well thought out argument. Continues to detail out his reasoning. Consistent with the people he disagrees with and the people he suspects. Misc: Claims himself as one of the most active. True?
Agrees with: Dissagrees with: Mafia Behaviors: Willing to sac a townie. Responds very late with little substancex2 Town Behaviors: Misc: Wants to move onto a new topic since random lynch has been discussed to death.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r-> takes it back(after being exonerated by him), lightly disagrees with Maverick, Mementossx4 Mafia Behaviors: Brings it back to the RL, despite everyone moving on from it. Rambles on a bit at this point. Town Behaviors: Decently argues for a move to lynch in looking at the long term perspective, willing to take a risk. Puts a lot of effort into pointing out that Mementoss if taking his words out of context. Wants to lynch for a purpose. Misc: Randomly accuses Mementoss seemingly because he is upset that he was accussed. A bit overaction.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Mementoss Mafia Behaviors: Indecisive. Encouraging risky/chaotic behaviors.Still contradictory statements. Says Dim is town, but then also accuses him of possibly being mafia. Brings back the RL discussion (though he has been mia for awhile) Town Behaviors: Would rather go with a hunch than a RL, but feels a lynch is necessary or town will lose. Misc: all for random lynch- posts that he’s reluctant. Sticks with reluctance, but again is on the “we need to do something NOW train” Back tracks and now is saying RL is a last resort. Didn't answer numerous questions directed at him.
Agrees with: Trackd00r, Mementoss Disagress with Mafia Behaviors: First post indicates a strong desire to try to push for a lynch. Town Behaviors: Still thinks we could lynch a lurker to ‘flush out mafia’, but doesn’t want to randomly do it. Recognizes that we are talking circles about Random lynching or not and wants to change topics. Misc:wants to lynch on day 1. But wants to see active posters and seems to want to decide on someone. Against random lynching though.
Mafia Behaviors: Wants to RL- pushes this hard. Accusses without any evidence or reasoning. Town Behaviors: Agrees with: Disagrees with: Gunman, OtoshimonU
Mafia Behaviors: poor logic, wants to lynch no matter what. Flips kind of. Would be willing to lynch a lurker, not necessarily random. There could be only town that are lurking however, so this could be a setup. Town Behaviors:
Agrees with: Pablols Disagrees with: Sufficiency- then flips to say he is town. OtoshimonUx2 Mafia Behaviors: Seems eager in the initial post to try to get people to accuse others right away. Uses past game as evidence of his ability to hunt down mafia to try to set up innocence. Brings up that the activity is too low, but hasn’t posted much. Town Behaviors: Initial post is encouraging and pro-town. Continues this trend, wants to hear people talk. Doesn’t want to RL Misc:Seems positive about staying active. Focuses on wording as his evidence.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r and Dim Mafia Behaviors: Wishy-washy. Willing to along with everyone, seems to be trying to lie low. Town Behaviors: Recognizes the disadvantages of a first day lynch and feels its too hasty. Misc: Against first day lynching since town is at disadvantage- but will go along if everyone else will do it. Defends Trak’s usage of “accusing” and seems to support him.
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
It's past 4 in the morning here so I'm going to wait to post who I think we should lynch for in the morning. What I do want to post now is who is slipping underneath the radar... Rainmaker has posted twice so far. In his last post he said he had to head to class and that he would post his later on, which he never did. Beorn has only had one post thus far in which he agrees with the general consensus on random lynches.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote: My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
It's past 4 in the morning here so I'm going to wait to post who I think we should lynch for in the morning. What I do want to post now is who is slipping underneath the radar... Rainmaker has posted twice so far. In his last post he said he had to head to class and that he would post his later on, which he never did. Beorn has only had one post thus far in which he agrees with the general consensus on random lynches.
I'm actually starting to agree with you here. I have thought about it a bit after I left last night, and while Pablols early filter may have shifted him in the scummy direction. His recent filter behavior points otherwise. He has been actively posting, stating an opinion with evidence and logic/ quotes, not afraid to directly respond to someone's accusations or questions. He doesn't respond with 2 liners/ or blanket statements which hang on both sides of the fence. He also made some great points like the following: If it seems like they are taking control of the thread then post, and challenge them when you don't agree. We are all equal at this point and everyone's opinion is worth hearing.
Pablols, your off my list for now. There seem to be much better leads to be leaning towards. I will get into these people now.
OtoshimonoU - scummy behaviour from the start. As you can see in his early filter, and stated by me towards him in an earlier post. [
On March 02 2012 00:11 Mementoss wrote: OtoshimonoU --> Stance: Initially against any sort of first day lynch, then tries to blend by saying he will follow the major if they want a random lynch. - His filter is filled with 1 liners, most that contribute nothing. His opinion follows the trend of the thread. First post is actually him asking opinions of others rather than stating his own. .
When I do pressure him to get a direct confrontation I get 1 liner contentless posts as well or posts that tend to try to avoid stating an opinion. He has the same attitude towards trackd00r.
On March 02 2012 05:41 OtoshimonoU wrote: FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhh, I see. So attracting attention to yourself is a good thing!
Recently however, OtoshimonU has been coming up with an opinion and trying to put a little more effort into his posts. He realizes he is number one on a couple peoples lists, and at least has been thought about by everyone as scum. He tries to get out of it the only way he can, by getting other people on his side. He sees the disagreement between me and pablols and decides to create a conspiracy theory to sway other people on his side/derail the lynch discussion.
On March 02 2012 11:04 OtoshimonoU wrote: Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs. I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts.
This seems like a last effort close to voting time to shift the attention in a quick swift way that requires no evidence or logic, but sounds like a good storyline statement so other people will get caught up in the excitement. He goes on to further agree with pablols some more.
As for the behind the sceners. Beorn and rainmaker. These guys scare me. This is why I tried to get a plan going to pressure some posts out of these guys. The thing I am most worried about is being wrong on 2/3 of my FoS and one of these guys being mafia. Since there are probably 7 different FoS floating around by different people with different opinions. These guys have no reason to post if there mafia. There safe as far as they're concerned.
Onto my next FoS.Sufficiency. Has been on mine and others FoS since the early game. His early game constisted of 6 1-liners. They go on to suggesting an RL hard, and FoS OtoshimonoU and gunman. His last quote before leaving for a good part of the mid game in day 1 is as follows.
On March 02 2012 12:45 Sufficiency wrote: I say we lynch OtoshimonoU or gunman103
Keep in mind, this is when random lynch was the main discussion. Most people had 3 posts maximum. And I think 4 -5 people were still lurkers at this moment. Very snap decision making, no reasoning. This is why I think he's suspicious. Trackd00r defends his sloppy play for being early game, noob mistakes. But sufficiency comes back in the late game (present) with the same types of posts. Sloppy, no evidence, no reasoning, 1 liners.
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
On March 01 2012 13:17 Sufficiency wrote: I also FoS OtoshimonoU for being a compromiser.
These posts are ridiculous.
On March 02 2012 17:16 Sufficiency wrote: How long have you been playing mafia, Maverick32x?
Another great post regarding mavericks list. Does not give his opinion on it. Just asks a non relevant question. Trying to derail conversation that maverick is actually smurfing or something of the sort.
On March 02 2012 17:31 Sufficiency wrote: OtoshimonoU: don't you find me scummy? I did fos you without explaining much.
Trying to get OtoshimonoU to talk again bring the attention back on him, as the most popular suspect, or at least most approached.
And here is the king of explanations for FoS. The icing on the cake, he either is having a hard time making up lies and opinions, or would rather remain almost totally opinionless for no reason.
On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103?
gutty feelings.
After going through his filter, I am 100% Sufficiency is one of the following: Scum, or the worst townie of all time. Either way he is a good option for lynch. Lynching him will in way hurt the town and there is a good chance he is scum.
Top FoS in order: Suffiency OtoshimonoU Lurker (Beorn or Rainmaker)
Ok, analyzing the situation right now, I think we have viable candidates for lynch this day.
OtoshimonoU: He made himself present some hours ago. Yet he didn't respond to any of his accusations. This can leave us with two options:
1) He is townie not putting effort to read the thread. Rather he skims through the big posts and doesn't care about the rest. 2) He is a scum trying to avoid any accusations and making quick agreements.
Sufficiency: I have to admit that he didn't look suspicious to me before because of the way that he got attention, something that mafia hardly would do. But, he made a succession of awkward, one-liner posts (see mementoss post) that are confusing the hell out of me. I would accept that behavior for one day, but doing it twice already just looks wrong.
I don't understand why a player would play like that. I still do have the little hope that he is just a uninterested townie. It's a very tiny chance, but it is one. He is another good candidate. I don't think we might lose much by lynching him.
The player I would like to lynch today is OtoshimonoU. He gets my vote by now.
##Vote: OtoshimonoU (voting is done in the voting thread, but I'll post it here as well to make it public.
As for Tiystus, he promised that he would be back posting in three hours or so. He didn't.
Rainmaker promised something as well. Again, no posts.
I'll check the filters once again. There is a chance that I can change my vote.
Probably the weirdest thing about sufficiency is that if you check his profile, he posts on average 4 times a day...and posts FREQUENTLY.... I'm not entirely sure who to vote for.. but I have class today from 6pm cst- 9pm cst... So I will have to come up with an answer rather quickly I suppose!!
Heading to work, I'll post more when I get there. Lurkers are really barely contributing also.... makes me wonder what is going on with them.
trackd00r I agree with you in almost every way in the above post. However i'm still on the fence about OtoshimonoU and Sufficiency. The one thing that keeps me puzzled the most is Sufficiency's FoS on OtoshimonoU. They are both suspicious but this FoS makes it look like at least one of them is not scum. What would the reason of Sufficiency FoS a fellow mafia.
I guess the question is: Who has the most to gain from early FoS?
Mafia: Pros: Creates confusion, takes attention away from fellow mafia players. Cons: Creates disscussion between the town, makes posters more active. Could lead back to the person themself
Town: Pros: Creates disscussion between the town, makes posters more active Cons: Lack of evidence makes you look like mafia. Allows mafia players to lurk, as attention is shifted away.
Unless they were both mafia, and this was a trick. This seems the most unlikely however. As to make a move that blantantly obvious at the beginning of the game, bringing attention to yourself and the other person. As well as it would have been hard for them to communicate this idea with the mafia so early on in the game.
Overall, either lynch would be good. They both have possibilities for scum and are both bad townies. Before I commit to a vote, I still would like to hear the defense / opinions of some other posters. Will check back later after lunch.
Ok, I'm between Sufficiency and Tiystus personally, but I'm willing to see everyone's point with OtoshimonU....
One thing that I was thinking about on my drive over to work is, "What information will we get if we lynch Sufficiency?"
My answer to that is "Not very much". He doesn't appear to be very involved with the game, so even his 'FoS's' aren't of THAT much use... That being said, he doesn't contribute much of anything to the game, and his tone is kind of destructive which I don't really want.
What if we lynch Oto? Well, if he's town we are going to have some issues- due to the ferocity that a lot of people have been targetting him. If he's Mafia: That will go a very long way in narrowing down our list of suspects...
Would still like to hear more before a decision!!! I'll post my vote at 4:00CST since I won't be around to vote after that.
The lack of posting in this thread is really disturbing and bad for the town, espeically so close to a vote. Im still interested to hear Dim's lynch opinion. Also I would really like to hear from people such as friedchicken, tityus, rainmaker, gunman, and beorn. There opinion on the current lynch, and their opinion to people suspecting them of being scum (tityus)
@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town.
Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well
On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote: Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r.
Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine.
On March 02 2012 04:20 trackd00r wrote: Being very honest now, the activity in this game is too low. I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess.
About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content.
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have.
FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me)
Zero content at all in this above post. (He bolded that part to make a point) OtoshimonoU getting mad/defensive about the point and his suspicious activity. Blames the suspicion it on lack of posting in first days, yet he posted three times pretty early (before most). Still has no logical discussion on who to lynch this week. Scared of bringing more attention to himself or fellow scum??
I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others.
He wasn't complaining about your inactivity, in fact, other than me your one of the most active. In fact he's complaining about your (Post) to (Meaningful Post). Right now that ratio is 6:1. You've had seven posts, only one in which discusses what the town should be doing/ has some sort of active strategic value for getting rid of scum. Here it is:
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
Stating how you are against a first day lynch. All other posts have been filler. Even this post here is suspicious as you try to draw attention away from yourself and towards someone who is a non-poster. After that post you either post something that has nothing to do with anything. Or post something that agrees with someone 1 or more people have said, trying to blend in with ideas. This is the reason you posts have 0 content. Cause you don't want to attract attention to yourself by having a unique opinion.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhh, I see. So attracting attention to yourself is a good thing!
I need to go eat supper now will be back later tonight, but let me leave you with this question that you will hopefully answer before my return. Who do you think is scum based on the current situations and clearly outline why using physiological reason /evidence and quotes. Maybe asking questions is the only way to get some sort of articulate posting out of you.
He's avoiding speaking anything controversial or giving an opinion on anything, he cannot function as a part of the town, and good chance he is acting this way as mafia.
Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information.
My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red]
Will come back to check on more posts. Open and willing to change my mind if a good point or debate comes up.
Anyway, the way I see it now, Beorn, OtoshimonoU, Rainmaker5 are either indifferent towns or scums. I was pointing FoS'es like crazy everywhere and these three failed to make any responses. I am especially happy about a beorn lynch because he said almost nothing so far (in case we actually want to do a lynch today). Surely, sometimes vanilla towners can be very quiet, but if he is allowed to live for too long, in lylo situations we may hammer wrong because he has only made one post so far.
I actually think Tiystus is town. The way he defended NL was pretty towntelling for me.
If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
Ok I'm going to draft up a list and announce my vote real quick. this formatiting will be a bit wonky but I don't have time to really make shit pretty right now.
going to link post #s so I don't have to explain where I'm getting information
Otoshi~~~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011 Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch.
Gunman Don't really have a read on him b/c he doesn't really seem sure of his own opinion would like to hear more from him but I can't really say that FoSing currently
Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good
Mav is seems pretty opposed to a random lynch, not to much to say after that
Beorn doesn't really seem to have an opinion- no read
So I don't really like Pablos's style, but he cleaned up towards the end. Mav and Memtoss are off my radar currenly because even if they're scum they're encouraging posts and moving forward that's going to hurt them. Suff is kinda sketchy- takes attention away from his rampant fingering by putting it on people who didn't react.
But I really feel the guy who's generating the most noise is definitely OtoshimonoU. He feels really scummy and even if he's jsut playing poorly is the type of guy that real scum can use to keep deflecting attention.
Which I guess is something you can suspect me of doing lol
Anyway that's my vote and my analysis. Wish me luck on my Midterm!
Remember guys we need majority for a lynch. In this case 7 votes. A no-lynch would imo would be pretty bad in this situation. So everyone get to posting their opinions so we can work out as a whole who to vote out. A lurker lynch would be better than a no lynch.
On March 03 2012 03:33 Rainmaker5 wrote: Ok I'm going to draft up a list and announce my vote real quick. this formatiting will be a bit wonky but I don't have time to really make shit pretty right now.
going to link post #s so I don't have to explain where I'm getting information
Otoshi~~~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011 Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch.
Gunman Don't really have a read on him b/c he doesn't really seem sure of his own opinion would like to hear more from him but I can't really say that FoSing currently
Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good
Mav is seems pretty opposed to a random lynch, not to much to say after that
Beorn doesn't really seem to have an opinion- no read
So I don't really like Pablos's style, but he cleaned up towards the end. Mav and Memtoss are off my radar currenly because even if they're scum they're encouraging posts and moving forward that's going to hurt them. Suff is kinda sketchy- takes attention away from his rampant fingering by putting it on people who didn't react.
But I really feel the guy who's generating the most noise is definitely OtoshimonoU. He feels really scummy and even if he's jsut playing poorly is the type of guy that real scum can use to keep deflecting attention.
Which I guess is something you can suspect me of doing lol
Anyway that's my vote and my analysis. Wish me luck on my Midterm!
The only useful thing about this post is your opinion on OtoshimonoU. There is no point in bringing up the names of people that are not on our current suspect list and then not even accuse them of anything. That kind of information is just taking up space. You haven't posted much up until now and that post is looking pretty suspicious to me...
We really, really, REALLY need to hear beorn, tiystus and friedchicken.
The idea of a beorn lynch doesn't seem bad for me as well, but I'd to hear his opinion. Remember that if he doesn't cast it's vote today he will be modkilled. So if he doesn't want to risk that, he should better be up with a good reason to lynch someone.
@Dimmuklok, why do you claim that the only useful thing about Rainmaker post is the Oto? What about the comments he made about Pablols? Plus, you say that there is no need to bring up more names. Then, what's the point FoSing him? That move was rather unnecessary.
I'm currently holding vote on Oto, but as I said I'll consider anything else. This is very important. If any of these candidates are heading up to a mis-lynch (townie lynched), Mafia will try to push very hard them without leaving their hands dirty. This hasn't finished yet. We still have 7 hours so let's them wisely.
On March 03 2012 04:15 trackd00r wrote: We really, really, REALLY need to hear beorn, tiystus and friedchicken.
The idea of a beorn lynch doesn't seem bad for me as well, but I'd to hear his opinion. Remember that if he doesn't cast it's vote today he will be modkilled. So if he doesn't want to risk that, he should better be up with a good reason to lynch someone.
@Dimmuklok, why do you claim that the only useful thing about Rainmaker post is the Oto? What about the comments he made about Pablols? Plus, you say that there is no need to bring up more names. Then, what's the point FoSing him? That move was rather unnecessary.
I'm currently holding vote on Oto, but as I said I'll consider anything else. This is very important. If any of these candidates are heading up to a mis-lynch (townie lynched), Mafia will try to push very hard them without leaving their hands dirty. This hasn't finished yet. We still have 7 hours so let's them wisely.
How is what he says about Pablols of any use at all? He first says that Pablols is suspicious, then right after says that he thinks that he supports random lynching. How can you get anything of use if the person posting doesn't even know the stance of the person they are posting about?
The only useful thing I can see from that post is his stance on Oto. Not even what he posts about him, because it brings nothing new to the table, but just that he wants to lynch Oto is important to note. He voted that he's willing to lynch Oto, and yet this is his read on him "Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch."
If he really wanted to benefit the town, he could have made a detailed post on why he's willing to lynch Oto, instead of a bunch of useless info.
On March 03 2012 04:15 trackd00r wrote: We really, really, REALLY need to hear beorn, tiystus and friedchicken.
The idea of a beorn lynch doesn't seem bad for me as well, but I'd to hear his opinion. Remember that if he doesn't cast it's vote today he will be modkilled. So if he doesn't want to risk that, he should better be up with a good reason to lynch someone.
@Dimmuklok, why do you claim that the only useful thing about Rainmaker post is the Oto? What about the comments he made about Pablols? Plus, you say that there is no need to bring up more names. Then, what's the point FoSing him? That move was rather unnecessary.
I'm currently holding vote on Oto, but as I said I'll consider anything else. This is very important. If any of these candidates are heading up to a mis-lynch (townie lynched), Mafia will try to push very hard them without leaving their hands dirty. This hasn't finished yet. We still have 7 hours so let's them wisely.
How is what he says about Pablols of any use at all? He first says that Pablols is suspicious, then right after says that he thinks that he supports random lynching. How can you get anything of use if the person posting doesn't even know the stance of the person they are posting about?
The only useful thing I can see from that post is his stance on Oto. Not even what he posts about him, because it brings nothing new to the table, but just that he wants to lynch Oto is important to note. He voted that he's willing to lynch Oto, and yet this is his read on him "Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch."
If he really wanted to benefit the town, he could have made a detailed post on why he's willing to lynch Oto, instead of a bunch of useless info.
I think he was trying to organize information of what he thought of everybody similar to maverick. Point is he does a fairly poor job of it. Most of the information is old/irrelavant and should/could have been discussed when it actually happened. (Actually quotes trackd00rs first post of the game). Rehasing old information that has already been discussed or addressed, or is plain just not important is a good way to get the town running in circles.
I think his reasoning behind this post is to show he's not an opinionless lurker. The whole post is just agreeing with either the general majority or is so wishy washy that it doesn't say anything. Sorta like "he seems suspicious, but then he did this, maybe I don't understand his style". He also disregards someone as mafia because they support the lynch, which is just poor logic. I agree it woulda been better having a fleshed out post of who he thought too lynch, and maybe another paragraph naming his 2nd idea. I don't nessecarily think this post was distracting on purpose, but it is worth mentioning and keeping an eye on rainmaker.
Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
@Sufficiency- Good posts!! I'm really glad to hear from you!! That being said, I truly am suspecting the following people as the most likely to be mafia at this point-
Sufficiency- Its not so much the things you said, but the reactions that I've been gathering from the bottom two. Obviously I suspected you from the start due to your poor posting. But it seems like a lot of the other people were eager to let you get by as "poor town", and you weren't confronted at all. Then all of a sudden you post that you want to get rid of the lurker, and Dim hopes right on board. You've established zero credability in this thread, if anything you were seen as a non-helpful, yet for some reason you're getting bandwagon support.....
Dim- You've spent a lot of time defending Mementoss, and bandwagoned with Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote:
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads. Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
I think this is highly suspicous behavior. Both players have bounced off each other and defended each other's actions to establish credability.
Mementos:
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Creating excuses for Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him.
You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia.
On March 03 2012 02:57 Mementoss wrote:
@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town.
Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well
On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote: Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r.
Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information.
My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red]
Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes.
All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia...
So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded.
On March 03 2012 05:51 Maverick32x wrote: @Sufficiency- Good posts!! I'm really glad to hear from you!! That being said, I truly am suspecting the following people as the most likely to be mafia at this point-
Sufficiency- Its not so much the things you said, but the reactions that I've been gathering from the bottom two. Obviously I suspected you from the start due to your poor posting. But it seems like a lot of the other people were eager to let you get by as "poor town", and you weren't confronted at all. Then all of a sudden you post that you want to get rid of the lurker, and Dim hopes right on board. You've established zero credability in this thread, if anything you were seen as a non-helpful, yet for some reason you're getting bandwagon support.....
Dim- You've spent a lot of time defending Mementoss, and bandwagoned with Sufficiency.
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads. Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
I think this is highly suspicous behavior. Both players have bounced off each other and defended each other's actions to establish credability.
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him.
You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia.
@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town.
Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well
On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote: Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r.
Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information.
My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red]
Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes.
All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia...
So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded.
I am not sure what you are getting at - it almost sounds like you are trying to buddy me.
On March 03 2012 06:09 Maverick32x wrote: Okay, well clearly you've only read the first sentence -_-.... also make sure you vote in the voting thread... if you haven't already...
No I read the whole thing, obviously. I just can't put my finger on what you are trying to get at.
Okay, well this will probably be my last post before I leave for class. I will be voting for OtoshimonoU. I feel like I'm a bit stuck into this position, but feel like we can learn a lot more from that lynch than lynching an inactive. (Beorn)
@Sufficiency- Good posts!! I'm really glad to hear from you!! That being said, I truly am suspecting the following people as the most likely to be mafia at this point-
Sufficiency- Its not so much the things you said, but the reactions that I've been gathering from the bottom two. Obviously I suspected you from the start due to your poor posting. But it seems like a lot of the other people were eager to let you get by as "poor town", and you weren't confronted at all. Then all of a sudden you post that you want to get rid of the lurker, and Dim hopes right on board. You've established zero credability in this thread, if anything you were seen as a non-helpful, yet for some reason you're getting bandwagon support.....
Dim- You've spent a lot of time defending Mementoss, and bandwagoned with Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote:
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads. Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
I think this is highly suspicous behavior. Both players have bounced off each other and defended each other's actions to establish credability.
Mementos:
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Creating excuses for Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him.
You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia.
On March 03 2012 02:57 Mementoss wrote:
@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town.
Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well
On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote: Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r.
Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information.
My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red]
Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes.
All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia...
So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded.
Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time.
Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other.
On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more.
I honestly believe that Beorn will be getting modkilled tonight, so I just don't want to waste the lynch. But yeah, we need to put more pressure on the lurkers definitely in day 2. We need to hear from a few more people still on their opinion. Right now the vote is 5 - OtoshmonoU 1 - Beorne.
We still need to hear opinions from, bubbles, gunman, pablols, titystis, and Beorn.
I think sufficiency spoke up in a last effort to get Beorne lynched because he knew it be easy to convince at least a few people to vote Beorne and it was easy to get people to agree with him, why? Post count 1, thats why. Possibly he done this as a pressure play, but it also coulda been a play against the town to take away the majority and get a no lynch. Something to think about at least, and we will see if he changes vote or remains.
I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency. I can't tell if he's smart and trying to get reactions out of people with his posts, or one of the many other things I've considered. If people are interested I can make a more detailed case on my opinion of him, but even I'm not too confident in my read on him.
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him.
You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia.
@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town.
Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well
On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote: Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r.
Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information.
My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red]
Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes.
All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia...
So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded.
Alright, I feel as though I should respond to this. Some of the points have me a bit confused.
1. Creating excuses for Sufficiency, I've actively been against Sufficiency. Early game he was very suspicious, and trackd00r brought the point up about him just being a noob. He hadn't posted in a while and I thought this could be the case but needed to wait for a response. He responds, with 4 post string of absolute garbage, and thats when I write my big analysis of him. At that point I was 60% Sufficiency, 40% OtoshmonoU.
2. The list. If you read back through the thread, you will see for the early part of the thread (when the list was created), people gave some 1 liner opinions on RL situation and had a couple pages where they just stopped posting. Others were quick to jump to FoS, multiple times without evidence. Dimmkuk was on the Opinion given part on the list, cause he gave a unique response on what he thought of me, and provided actual evidence/reasons to back it up. At that point of the thread quality posts were very hard to come by and only came by me you and trackd00r.
3. If you were 60% Sufficiency, 40% OtoshmonoU, why did I vote OtoshmonoU? I had a good scum read on both of them, but felt pressured to vote OtoshmonoU at the time because trackd00r did. Why did I feel pressured? For a good almost like 4-5 hours post count was amazingly low for it being so close to voting time. Pressure was being put on lurkers to post and they still weren't. I was scared of a no-lynch situation and that the low post activity would make it too hard to have a good discussion in which we could get at least 7 people to vote the same person.
4. I wasn't trying to sway your vote in an aggressive manner, I was just pointing out that 3 people have put pressure plays on him to post opinionated posts and none of it worked. Scummy situation. Hard to get a read off someone completely neutral or thoughtless in all of his posts.
5.Recently Sufficiency at least made some good posts and gave an opinion, which in the end put OtoshmonoU slightly ahead in my books for the person who needs to be Lynched.
Could trackd00r be purposely pressure OtoshmonoU vote by putting in his vote so early? Its possible, but I haven't really got a scummy read from him all game.
Yes 3 and 4 were good. I can relate to 3... Sitting in bad traffic now so can't go into much more detail... When I get home I plan on getting a way to organize people's fos and alignment to each other... Could be helpful post vote??
I'm very interested to see how it all shakes out!!
Gunman, did you honestly think this would go un-noticed?
On March 03 2012 08:03 gunman103 wrote: ##Vote: Tiystus
I thought I would go eat and give you time to give some time to give reasoning in the thread. Its been a half hour. You'd think you would post reasoning before running straight to the vote thread. You do realize voting without trying to at least convince your case/state your opinions in the thread is very suspicious play? The below is hardly reasoning.
On March 02 2012 11:54 gunman103 wrote: #1 Tiystus- He was fine with randomly killing someone early on but then changes his mind later. Seems like one of his scum friends told him what to say. He also never seems to make a decision on anything. .
This vote seems very selfish, and mafia motivated. Give some more reasoning behind this choice and why is this vote a better vote than OtoshmonoU? Why didn't you like the OtoshmonoU evidence that was given by a couple different people in this thread. It seems like you wanted vote without bringing attention to yourself, and to split the town into a no-lynch situation.
On March 01 2012 14:11 gunman103 wrote: DimmuKlok is right. If we have to do a lynch without a strong case, lynching a lurker would be more effective than a RL seeing as how most mafia are lurkers. Also, lets wait before we decide to lynch someone because we don't need to worry about it right now.
You even said it yourself, if your going to lynch you need a strong case. What is your strong case in this situation? Later in the above quote you said lynching a lurker would be better than lynching without a strong case, however your reasoning behind voting tiystus didn't mention anything about you thinking him, because he was a lurker. And if you were to vote for a lurker, wouldn't Beorn be a better case as he has the least amount of posts, and has given no kind of read yet?
On March 03 2012 08:03 gunman103 wrote: ##Vote: Tiystus
I thought I would go eat and give you time to give some time to give reasoning in the thread. Its been a half hour. You'd think you would post reasoning before running straight to the vote thread. You do realize voting without trying to at least convince your case/state your opinions in the thread is very suspicious play? The below is hardly reasoning.
On March 02 2012 11:54 gunman103 wrote: #1 Tiystus- He was fine with randomly killing someone early on but then changes his mind later. Seems like one of his scum friends told him what to say. He also never seems to make a decision on anything. .
This vote seems very selfish, and mafia motivated. Give some more reasoning behind this choice and why is this vote a better vote than OtoshmonoU? Why didn't you like the OtoshmonoU evidence that was given by a couple different people in this thread. It seems like you wanted vote without bringing attention to yourself, and to split the town into a no-lynch situation.
On March 01 2012 14:11 gunman103 wrote: DimmuKlok is right. If we have to do a lynch without a strong case, lynching a lurker would be more effective than a RL seeing as how most mafia are lurkers. Also, lets wait before we decide to lynch someone because we don't need to worry about it right now.
You even said it yourself, if your going to lynch you need a strong case. What is your strong case in this situation? Later in the above quote you said lynching a lurker would be better than lynching without a strong case, however your reasoning behind voting tiystus didn't mention anything about you thinking him, because he was a lurker. And if you were to vote for a lurker, wouldn't Beorn be a better case as he has the least amount of posts, and has given no kind of read yet?
Your move gunman.
Alright, I'll change my vote. I suppose I didn't really get a good enough read on oto and focused to much on lurkers. Now that I look at his posts, he does look suspicious. I suppose I thought that lynching a lurker would be better than killing a potential town because lynching a lurker wouldn't actually hurt us all that much because they don't add anything to the discussion, where as if we he turns out to be town, we wouldn't get his input.
On March 03 2012 08:35 Mementoss wrote: Gunman, did you honestly think this would go un-noticed?
On March 03 2012 08:03 gunman103 wrote: ##Vote: Tiystus
I thought I would go eat and give you time to give some time to give reasoning in the thread. Its been a half hour. You'd think you would post reasoning before running straight to the vote thread. You do realize voting without trying to at least convince your case/state your opinions in the thread is very suspicious play? The below is hardly reasoning.
On March 02 2012 11:54 gunman103 wrote: #1 Tiystus- He was fine with randomly killing someone early on but then changes his mind later. Seems like one of his scum friends told him what to say. He also never seems to make a decision on anything. .
This vote seems very selfish, and mafia motivated. Give some more reasoning behind this choice and why is this vote a better vote than OtoshmonoU? Why didn't you like the OtoshmonoU evidence that was given by a couple different people in this thread. It seems like you wanted vote without bringing attention to yourself, and to split the town into a no-lynch situation.
On March 01 2012 14:11 gunman103 wrote: DimmuKlok is right. If we have to do a lynch without a strong case, lynching a lurker would be more effective than a RL seeing as how most mafia are lurkers. Also, lets wait before we decide to lynch someone because we don't need to worry about it right now.
You even said it yourself, if your going to lynch you need a strong case. What is your strong case in this situation? Later in the above quote you said lynching a lurker would be better than lynching without a strong case, however your reasoning behind voting tiystus didn't mention anything about you thinking him, because he was a lurker. And if you were to vote for a lurker, wouldn't Beorn be a better case as he has the least amount of posts, and has given no kind of read yet?
Your move gunman.
Alright, I'll change my vote. I suppose I didn't really get a good enough read on oto and focused to much on lurkers. Now that I look at his posts, he does look suspicious. I suppose I thought that lynching a lurker would be better than killing a potential town because lynching a lurker wouldn't actually hurt us all that much because they don't add anything to the discussion, where as if we he turns out to be town, we wouldn't get his input.
Im not trying to post this in an aggressive way, although it sounds that way. You don't have to change your vote im just saying it seems suspicious and you should back up your actions, while or before you take them.
On March 01 2012 15:33 Maverick32x wrote: If we are making completely random choices- this is how the numbers role out. (99% sure...)
Situation Ratio of Mafia:town___ Percent Mafia influence_______ Change in Mafia Percentage Right now 3: 9 ______________ 33% Mafia Best case: 1:4 ______________ 25% Mafia ______________ -8% difference ______________ 25% chance of this Worst Case: 3: 7 ______________43% Mafia _____________+10% difference ______________75% chance of this Nothing 3:8: ______________ 37.5%Mafia ______________+4.5% Difference ______________ Depends.
Before I post my opinions, this is hurting my eyes, so me correct you. Maybe you just used the word "influence" wrong, maybe it's a case of semantics, maybe it's an innocent mistake. Anyway:
Situation Ratio of Mafia:town___ Percent Mafia influence_______ Change in Mafia Percentage Right now 3: 9 ______________ 25% Mafia Best case: 2:8 ______________ 20% Mafia ______________ -5% difference ______________ 25% chance of this Worst Case: 3: 7 ______________30% Mafia _____________+5% difference ______________75% chance of this Nothing 3:8: ______________ 27,3%Mafia ______________+2,3% Difference ______________ Depends.
Sorry guys, its a bit overwhelming trying to take in 7/8 pages of discussion, especially considering how many filler/opinion summaries there are. Frankly I think opinion "summaries" are worthless (especially from non-confirmed PRs on day 1). Accusing someone for not wanting NL/normal lynch/RL/whatever is also worthless, because all of those have merits (and statistics, which we don't have, will eventually tell us which is best) . Anyway, for the current discussion:
I don't see what Otoshi has done enough to warrant so much suspicion.
1) He first said he wanted no lynch then said would agree with a random lynch. Flip-flopping, but not a major case. 2) He comments on track's bold first post and sends a few one-liners. Suspicious? Sure. Derailing the discussion? It may have been filler, but not annoying, distracting filler, so no. 3) His tell on his 4th post. OK, I will admit this looks pretty damn suspicious, but idk, may just have been phrasing. If anything, this shows that Trackdoor is really on the ball (so far as the first day goes, he's the only one here who looks slightly trustworthy). 4) The rest of his posts he defends himself from Mementos. He doesn't put much effort into his posts, and doesn't post much. This is scumtelling, but I'm not convinced its enough.
I'm sticking with a ##Vote: No Lynch. There's already 6 votes on him and I'm not convinced enough to hammer.
On March 01 2012 14:42 Maverick32x wrote: So.. believe it or not guys.. Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency… 3 support randomly lynching…. And there are 3 mafia…. I’d like to hear more out of you guys- but the bandwagoning behind this idea is highly suspicious….
1) Slightly confusing graph (as I pointed out last post) and willing to accuse people at once just because they had an argument pro-RL (sure, Tiystus and Sufficiency were pointing fingers as well, but your enphasis was on the pro-RL). In the first day we're here to try to point out mistakes and inconsistencies, and the mafia is (probably) not stupid enough to show themselves together so easily. Your willingness to accuse 3 at once and act like you've solved the case is suspicious.
On March 01 2012 14:42 Maverick32x wrote: Trackd00r- Thank you. I agree. We need activity if we’re going to lynch successfully. What I’m most worried about is that the mafia are eyeing inactive townies and plan on trying to swing us in that direction….
2) The whole point of lynching lurkers is that they are usually scum, not usually town. There's a good chance there are 2 mafia guys going along with the discussion, but that a third one is hanging back to not endanger himself of later days. If we have to choose between two lurkers, it is up to us (town) to not be dissuaded by someone (or two) who knows which lurker is mafia and which one is town. Still, lynching lurkers is a good strategy, having no better suspect.
3) Nervous of sounding "bloodthirsty". You're not even close to the accusation center and you apologise in 3 different posts?
On March 02 2012 10:36 Maverick32x wrote: Okay guys. This is ALL of my reads over the past day. Let me know what you think. If any is inaccurate let me know, but I broke it down into looking at each player's tendency to agree/disagree with someone else to see if there are any patterns of "allegiance" that I can spot. I also looked at behaviors that can be interpreted as either Mafia or Town. I obviously couldn't hit on everything, but these were the things that jumped out at me.. feel free to agree/disagree all you'd like. Lastly, I put in some miscellaneous information that I just thought was interesting or factual about a stance that the person had.
I obviously didn't write stuff about myself, but if you'd like to create one for me, go ahead.
Agrees with: Dimx2 Disagrees with: Sufficiency. Mafia Behaviors: A kind of wishy-washy with his policy. Starts to fall to RL as a last resort if necessary. Though previously stated he wants to lynch for info, he now is considering a RL, but would prefer a ‘lurker’. Town Behaviors: Doesn’t want to lynch unless there is information to be gained. Repeats this information. Reinforces this idea a third time Misc: Against random lynching. Should only lynch for info. .
Agrees with: Maverickx2 Disagrees with: Trackd00r but takes it back. Sufficiency, OtoshimonUx3, Friedchicken, Pablols Mafia Behaviors: Possibly keeping attention off himself by focusing on others, Especially OtoshimonoU. Town Behaviors: Against Random Lynch- presents a well thought out argument. Continues to detail out his reasoning. Consistent with the people he disagrees with and the people he suspects. Misc: Claims himself as one of the most active. True?
Agrees with: Dissagrees with: Mafia Behaviors: Willing to sac a townie. Responds very late with little substancex2 Town Behaviors: Misc: Wants to move onto a new topic since random lynch has been discussed to death.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r-> takes it back(after being exonerated by him), lightly disagrees with Maverick, Mementossx4 Mafia Behaviors: Brings it back to the RL, despite everyone moving on from it. Rambles on a bit at this point. Town Behaviors: Decently argues for a move to lynch in looking at the long term perspective, willing to take a risk. Puts a lot of effort into pointing out that Mementoss if taking his words out of context. Wants to lynch for a purpose. Misc: Randomly accuses Mementoss seemingly because he is upset that he was accussed. A bit overaction.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Mementoss Mafia Behaviors: Indecisive. Encouraging risky/chaotic behaviors.Still contradictory statements. Says Dim is town, but then also accuses him of possibly being mafia. Brings back the RL discussion (though he has been mia for awhile) Town Behaviors: Would rather go with a hunch than a RL, but feels a lynch is necessary or town will lose. Misc: all for random lynch- posts that he’s reluctant. Sticks with reluctance, but again is on the “we need to do something NOW train” Back tracks and now is saying RL is a last resort. Didn't answer numerous questions directed at him.
Agrees with: Trackd00r, Mementoss Disagress with Mafia Behaviors: First post indicates a strong desire to try to push for a lynch. Town Behaviors: Still thinks we could lynch a lurker to ‘flush out mafia’, but doesn’t want to randomly do it. Recognizes that we are talking circles about Random lynching or not and wants to change topics. Misc:wants to lynch on day 1. But wants to see active posters and seems to want to decide on someone. Against random lynching though.
Mafia Behaviors: Wants to RL- pushes this hard. Accusses without any evidence or reasoning. Town Behaviors: Agrees with: Disagrees with: Gunman, OtoshimonU
Mafia Behaviors: poor logic, wants to lynch no matter what. Flips kind of. Would be willing to lynch a lurker, not necessarily random. There could be only town that are lurking however, so this could be a setup. Town Behaviors:
Agrees with: Pablols Disagrees with: Sufficiency- then flips to say he is town. OtoshimonUx2 Mafia Behaviors: Seems eager in the initial post to try to get people to accuse others right away. Uses past game as evidence of his ability to hunt down mafia to try to set up innocence. Brings up that the activity is too low, but hasn’t posted much. Town Behaviors: Initial post is encouraging and pro-town. Continues this trend, wants to hear people talk. Doesn’t want to RL Misc:Seems positive about staying active. Focuses on wording as his evidence.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r and Dim Mafia Behaviors: Wishy-washy. Willing to along with everyone, seems to be trying to lie low. Town Behaviors: Recognizes the disadvantages of a first day lynch and feels its too hasty. Misc: Against first day lynching since town is at disadvantage- but will go along if everyone else will do it. Defends Trak’s usage of “accusing” and seems to support him.
Mafia Behaviors: Longest Lurker by far. First post has 0 content. Town Behaviors:
4) Your big "summary post". Great way to sound pro-town while being useless. You're just lumping absolutely everything that happened during the day into one big post. Not only is it a horrible way to pass a point across, but it can end up misleading as to what is truly important. The only situation in which this could be useful is when coming from a confirmed PR, and even then it wouldn't be a summary of what happened during the day and who agreed/disaggred with whom, it would have to be more succint. If you're really town, please don't do it like this again.
Not enough evidence here to outright call you scum, but I'm wary of you.
Gunman, now tell us why you want to lynch oto. You haven't given a reason why yet.
@ mementoss: My vote for oto, believe it or not, isn't that early. I've waited 3 times for him to come up with a reasonable answer to my accusations and he didn't. I think that's pretty enough time to wait before casting a vote. Plus in other games, voting in the first 8-10 hours of the first day is not uncommon. Maybe yes, some of them are for just purely pressure goals, but you don't imagine what kind of wonders (scum slip ups) can happen when pressure is up to any player, no matter if it is a townie or mafia.
Aside of that, casting votes too late often lead to a mis or no lynch.
On March 03 2012 08:35 Mementoss wrote: Gunman, did you honestly think this would go un-noticed?
On March 03 2012 08:03 gunman103 wrote: ##Vote: Tiystus
I thought I would go eat and give you time to give some time to give reasoning in the thread. Its been a half hour. You'd think you would post reasoning before running straight to the vote thread. You do realize voting without trying to at least convince your case/state your opinions in the thread is very suspicious play? The below is hardly reasoning.
On March 02 2012 11:54 gunman103 wrote: #1 Tiystus- He was fine with randomly killing someone early on but then changes his mind later. Seems like one of his scum friends told him what to say. He also never seems to make a decision on anything. .
This vote seems very selfish, and mafia motivated. Give some more reasoning behind this choice and why is this vote a better vote than OtoshmonoU? Why didn't you like the OtoshmonoU evidence that was given by a couple different people in this thread. It seems like you wanted vote without bringing attention to yourself, and to split the town into a no-lynch situation.
On March 01 2012 14:11 gunman103 wrote: DimmuKlok is right. If we have to do a lynch without a strong case, lynching a lurker would be more effective than a RL seeing as how most mafia are lurkers. Also, lets wait before we decide to lynch someone because we don't need to worry about it right now.
You even said it yourself, if your going to lynch you need a strong case. What is your strong case in this situation? Later in the above quote you said lynching a lurker would be better than lynching without a strong case, however your reasoning behind voting tiystus didn't mention anything about you thinking him, because he was a lurker. And if you were to vote for a lurker, wouldn't Beorn be a better case as he has the least amount of posts, and has given no kind of read yet?
Your move gunman.
Alright, I'll change my vote. I suppose I didn't really get a good enough read on oto and focused to much on lurkers. Now that I look at his posts, he does look suspicious. I suppose I thought that lynching a lurker would be better than killing a potential town because lynching a lurker wouldn't actually hurt us all that much because they don't add anything to the discussion, where as if we he turns out to be town, we wouldn't get his input.
Im not trying to post this in an aggressive way, although it sounds that way. You don't have to change your vote im just saying it seems suspicious and you should back up your actions, while or before you take them.
I guess I should stick to my guns more. But you did bring up a good point and I did contradict myself now that I look back on it. And thanks for bringing oto to my attention. I guess I just got sloppy and let him slip by without getting a decent read on him.
On March 03 2012 09:08 Sbrubbles wrote: Sorry guys, its a bit overwhelming trying to take in 7/8 pages of discussion, especially considering how many filler/opinion summaries there are. Frankly I think opinion "summaries" are worthless (especially from non-confirmed PRs on day 1). Accusing someone for not wanting NL/normal lynch/RL/whatever is also worthless, because all of those have merits (and statistics, which we don't have, will eventually tell us which is best) . Anyway, for the current discussion:
I don't see what Otoshi has done enough to warrant so much suspicion.
1) He first said he wanted no lynch then said would agree with a random lynch. Flip-flopping, but not a major case. 2) He comments on track's bold first post and sends a few one-liners. Suspicious? Sure. Derailing the discussion? It may have been filler, but not annoying, distracting filler, so no. 3) His tell on his 4th post. OK, I will admit this looks pretty damn suspicious, but idk, may just have been phrasing. If anything, this shows that Trackdoor is really on the ball (so far as the first day goes, he's the only one here who looks slightly trustworthy). 4) The rest of his posts he defends himself from Mementos. He doesn't put much effort into his posts, and doesn't post much. This is scumtelling, but I'm not convinced its enough.
I'm sticking with a ##Vote: No Lynch. There's already 6 votes on him and I'm not convinced enough to hammer.
On March 01 2012 14:42 Maverick32x wrote: So.. believe it or not guys.. Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency… 3 support randomly lynching…. And there are 3 mafia…. I’d like to hear more out of you guys- but the bandwagoning behind this idea is highly suspicious….
1) Slightly confusing graph (as I pointed out last post) and willing to accuse people at once just because they had an argument pro-RL (sure, Tiystus and Sufficiency were pointing fingers as well, but your enphasis was on the pro-RL). In the first day we're here to try to point out mistakes and inconsistencies, and the mafia is (probably) not stupid enough to show themselves together so easily. Your willingness to accuse 3 at once and act like you've solved the case is suspicious.
On March 01 2012 14:42 Maverick32x wrote: Trackd00r- Thank you. I agree. We need activity if we’re going to lynch successfully. What I’m most worried about is that the mafia are eyeing inactive townies and plan on trying to swing us in that direction….
2) The whole point of lynching lurkers is that they are usually scum, not usually town. There's a good chance there are 2 mafia guys going along with the discussion, but that a third one is hanging back to not endanger himself of later days. If we have to choose between two lurkers, it is up to us (town) to not be dissuaded by someone (or two) who knows which lurker is mafia and which one is town. Still, lynching lurkers is a good strategy, having no better suspect.
3) Nervous of sounding "bloodthirsty". You're not even close to the accusation center and you apologise in 3 different posts?
On March 02 2012 10:36 Maverick32x wrote: Okay guys. This is ALL of my reads over the past day. Let me know what you think. If any is inaccurate let me know, but I broke it down into looking at each player's tendency to agree/disagree with someone else to see if there are any patterns of "allegiance" that I can spot. I also looked at behaviors that can be interpreted as either Mafia or Town. I obviously couldn't hit on everything, but these were the things that jumped out at me.. feel free to agree/disagree all you'd like. Lastly, I put in some miscellaneous information that I just thought was interesting or factual about a stance that the person had.
I obviously didn't write stuff about myself, but if you'd like to create one for me, go ahead.
Agrees with: Dimx2 Disagrees with: Sufficiency. Mafia Behaviors: A kind of wishy-washy with his policy. Starts to fall to RL as a last resort if necessary. Though previously stated he wants to lynch for info, he now is considering a RL, but would prefer a ‘lurker’. Town Behaviors: Doesn’t want to lynch unless there is information to be gained. Repeats this information. Reinforces this idea a third time Misc: Against random lynching. Should only lynch for info. .
Agrees with: Maverickx2 Disagrees with: Trackd00r but takes it back. Sufficiency, OtoshimonUx3, Friedchicken, Pablols Mafia Behaviors: Possibly keeping attention off himself by focusing on others, Especially OtoshimonoU. Town Behaviors: Against Random Lynch- presents a well thought out argument. Continues to detail out his reasoning. Consistent with the people he disagrees with and the people he suspects. Misc: Claims himself as one of the most active. True?
Agrees with: Dissagrees with: Mafia Behaviors: Willing to sac a townie. Responds very late with little substancex2 Town Behaviors: Misc: Wants to move onto a new topic since random lynch has been discussed to death.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r-> takes it back(after being exonerated by him), lightly disagrees with Maverick, Mementossx4 Mafia Behaviors: Brings it back to the RL, despite everyone moving on from it. Rambles on a bit at this point. Town Behaviors: Decently argues for a move to lynch in looking at the long term perspective, willing to take a risk. Puts a lot of effort into pointing out that Mementoss if taking his words out of context. Wants to lynch for a purpose. Misc: Randomly accuses Mementoss seemingly because he is upset that he was accussed. A bit overaction.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Mementoss Mafia Behaviors: Indecisive. Encouraging risky/chaotic behaviors.Still contradictory statements. Says Dim is town, but then also accuses him of possibly being mafia. Brings back the RL discussion (though he has been mia for awhile) Town Behaviors: Would rather go with a hunch than a RL, but feels a lynch is necessary or town will lose. Misc: all for random lynch- posts that he’s reluctant. Sticks with reluctance, but again is on the “we need to do something NOW train” Back tracks and now is saying RL is a last resort. Didn't answer numerous questions directed at him.
Agrees with: Trackd00r, Mementoss Disagress with Mafia Behaviors: First post indicates a strong desire to try to push for a lynch. Town Behaviors: Still thinks we could lynch a lurker to ‘flush out mafia’, but doesn’t want to randomly do it. Recognizes that we are talking circles about Random lynching or not and wants to change topics. Misc:wants to lynch on day 1. But wants to see active posters and seems to want to decide on someone. Against random lynching though.
Mafia Behaviors: Wants to RL- pushes this hard. Accusses without any evidence or reasoning. Town Behaviors: Agrees with: Disagrees with: Gunman, OtoshimonU
Mafia Behaviors: poor logic, wants to lynch no matter what. Flips kind of. Would be willing to lynch a lurker, not necessarily random. There could be only town that are lurking however, so this could be a setup. Town Behaviors:
Agrees with: Pablols Disagrees with: Sufficiency- then flips to say he is town. OtoshimonUx2 Mafia Behaviors: Seems eager in the initial post to try to get people to accuse others right away. Uses past game as evidence of his ability to hunt down mafia to try to set up innocence. Brings up that the activity is too low, but hasn’t posted much. Town Behaviors: Initial post is encouraging and pro-town. Continues this trend, wants to hear people talk. Doesn’t want to RL Misc:Seems positive about staying active. Focuses on wording as his evidence.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r and Dim Mafia Behaviors: Wishy-washy. Willing to along with everyone, seems to be trying to lie low. Town Behaviors: Recognizes the disadvantages of a first day lynch and feels its too hasty. Misc: Against first day lynching since town is at disadvantage- but will go along if everyone else will do it. Defends Trak’s usage of “accusing” and seems to support him.
Mafia Behaviors: Longest Lurker by far. First post has 0 content. Town Behaviors:
4) Your big "summary post". Great way to sound pro-town while being useless. You're just lumping absolutely everything that happened during the day into one big post. Not only is it a horrible way to pass a point across, but it can end up misleading as to what is truly important. The only situation in which this could be useful is when coming from a confirmed PR, and even then it wouldn't be a summary of what happened during the day and who agreed/disaggred with whom, it would have to be more succint. If you're really town, please don't do it like this again.
Not enough evidence here to outright call you scum, but I'm wary of you.
First, im glad to see such an informed post, it seems as if you were here the whole time.
Second, Im happy you to read into the current suspect for yourself, OtoshmonoU and not just vote because its happening. But I have one question regarding this nolynch, can you provide your reasoning why a no lynch would be better than being 100% on OtoshmonoU and getting some information out of it? Even if you don't nessecarily think he is scum, you seem to see why other people do, and I think a no lynch is a fairly weak first day. What is your opinion on this and how can it benefit the town rather than the lynch at hand?
Third, I appreciate the read on maverick, as it is the first read on him other than the mementoss/maverick mafia team conspiracy. Though I am not convinced he is scum, and that all this behaviour is scummy, it is definitily worth looking at and thinking about.
On March 03 2012 09:08 Sbrubbles wrote: Sorry guys, its a bit overwhelming trying to take in 7/8 pages of discussion, especially considering how many filler/opinion summaries there are. Frankly I think opinion "summaries" are worthless (especially from non-confirmed PRs on day 1). Accusing someone for not wanting NL/normal lynch/RL/whatever is also worthless, because all of those have merits (and statistics, which we don't have, will eventually tell us which is best) . Anyway, for the current discussion:
I don't see what Otoshi has done enough to warrant so much suspicion.
1) He first said he wanted no lynch then said would agree with a random lynch. Flip-flopping, but not a major case. 2) He comments on track's bold first post and sends a few one-liners. Suspicious? Sure. Derailing the discussion? It may have been filler, but not annoying, distracting filler, so no. 3) His tell on his 4th post. OK, I will admit this looks pretty damn suspicious, but idk, may just have been phrasing. If anything, this shows that Trackdoor is really on the ball (so far as the first day goes, he's the only one here who looks slightly trustworthy). 4) The rest of his posts he defends himself from Mementos. He doesn't put much effort into his posts, and doesn't post much. This is scumtelling, but I'm not convinced its enough.
I'm sticking with a ##Vote: No Lynch. There's already 6 votes on him and I'm not convinced enough to hammer.
On March 01 2012 14:42 Maverick32x wrote: So.. believe it or not guys.. Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency… 3 support randomly lynching…. And there are 3 mafia…. I’d like to hear more out of you guys- but the bandwagoning behind this idea is highly suspicious….
1) Slightly confusing graph (as I pointed out last post) and willing to accuse people at once just because they had an argument pro-RL (sure, Tiystus and Sufficiency were pointing fingers as well, but your enphasis was on the pro-RL). In the first day we're here to try to point out mistakes and inconsistencies, and the mafia is (probably) not stupid enough to show themselves together so easily. Your willingness to accuse 3 at once and act like you've solved the case is suspicious.
On March 01 2012 14:42 Maverick32x wrote: Trackd00r- Thank you. I agree. We need activity if we’re going to lynch successfully. What I’m most worried about is that the mafia are eyeing inactive townies and plan on trying to swing us in that direction….
2) The whole point of lynching lurkers is that they are usually scum, not usually town. There's a good chance there are 2 mafia guys going along with the discussion, but that a third one is hanging back to not endanger himself of later days. If we have to choose between two lurkers, it is up to us (town) to not be dissuaded by someone (or two) who knows which lurker is mafia and which one is town. Still, lynching lurkers is a good strategy, having no better suspect.
3) Nervous of sounding "bloodthirsty". You're not even close to the accusation center and you apologise in 3 different posts?
On March 02 2012 10:36 Maverick32x wrote: Okay guys. This is ALL of my reads over the past day. Let me know what you think. If any is inaccurate let me know, but I broke it down into looking at each player's tendency to agree/disagree with someone else to see if there are any patterns of "allegiance" that I can spot. I also looked at behaviors that can be interpreted as either Mafia or Town. I obviously couldn't hit on everything, but these were the things that jumped out at me.. feel free to agree/disagree all you'd like. Lastly, I put in some miscellaneous information that I just thought was interesting or factual about a stance that the person had.
I obviously didn't write stuff about myself, but if you'd like to create one for me, go ahead.
Agrees with: Dimx2 Disagrees with: Sufficiency. Mafia Behaviors: A kind of wishy-washy with his policy. Starts to fall to RL as a last resort if necessary. Though previously stated he wants to lynch for info, he now is considering a RL, but would prefer a ‘lurker’. Town Behaviors: Doesn’t want to lynch unless there is information to be gained. Repeats this information. Reinforces this idea a third time Misc: Against random lynching. Should only lynch for info. .
Agrees with: Maverickx2 Disagrees with: Trackd00r but takes it back. Sufficiency, OtoshimonUx3, Friedchicken, Pablols Mafia Behaviors: Possibly keeping attention off himself by focusing on others, Especially OtoshimonoU. Town Behaviors: Against Random Lynch- presents a well thought out argument. Continues to detail out his reasoning. Consistent with the people he disagrees with and the people he suspects. Misc: Claims himself as one of the most active. True?
Agrees with: Dissagrees with: Mafia Behaviors: Willing to sac a townie. Responds very late with little substancex2 Town Behaviors: Misc: Wants to move onto a new topic since random lynch has been discussed to death.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r-> takes it back(after being exonerated by him), lightly disagrees with Maverick, Mementossx4 Mafia Behaviors: Brings it back to the RL, despite everyone moving on from it. Rambles on a bit at this point. Town Behaviors: Decently argues for a move to lynch in looking at the long term perspective, willing to take a risk. Puts a lot of effort into pointing out that Mementoss if taking his words out of context. Wants to lynch for a purpose. Misc: Randomly accuses Mementoss seemingly because he is upset that he was accussed. A bit overaction.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Mementoss Mafia Behaviors: Indecisive. Encouraging risky/chaotic behaviors.Still contradictory statements. Says Dim is town, but then also accuses him of possibly being mafia. Brings back the RL discussion (though he has been mia for awhile) Town Behaviors: Would rather go with a hunch than a RL, but feels a lynch is necessary or town will lose. Misc: all for random lynch- posts that he’s reluctant. Sticks with reluctance, but again is on the “we need to do something NOW train” Back tracks and now is saying RL is a last resort. Didn't answer numerous questions directed at him.
Agrees with: Trackd00r, Mementoss Disagress with Mafia Behaviors: First post indicates a strong desire to try to push for a lynch. Town Behaviors: Still thinks we could lynch a lurker to ‘flush out mafia’, but doesn’t want to randomly do it. Recognizes that we are talking circles about Random lynching or not and wants to change topics. Misc:wants to lynch on day 1. But wants to see active posters and seems to want to decide on someone. Against random lynching though.
Mafia Behaviors: Wants to RL- pushes this hard. Accusses without any evidence or reasoning. Town Behaviors: Agrees with: Disagrees with: Gunman, OtoshimonU
Mafia Behaviors: poor logic, wants to lynch no matter what. Flips kind of. Would be willing to lynch a lurker, not necessarily random. There could be only town that are lurking however, so this could be a setup. Town Behaviors:
Agrees with: Pablols Disagrees with: Sufficiency- then flips to say he is town. OtoshimonUx2 Mafia Behaviors: Seems eager in the initial post to try to get people to accuse others right away. Uses past game as evidence of his ability to hunt down mafia to try to set up innocence. Brings up that the activity is too low, but hasn’t posted much. Town Behaviors: Initial post is encouraging and pro-town. Continues this trend, wants to hear people talk. Doesn’t want to RL Misc:Seems positive about staying active. Focuses on wording as his evidence.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r and Dim Mafia Behaviors: Wishy-washy. Willing to along with everyone, seems to be trying to lie low. Town Behaviors: Recognizes the disadvantages of a first day lynch and feels its too hasty. Misc: Against first day lynching since town is at disadvantage- but will go along if everyone else will do it. Defends Trak’s usage of “accusing” and seems to support him.
Mafia Behaviors: Longest Lurker by far. First post has 0 content. Town Behaviors:
4) Your big "summary post". Great way to sound pro-town while being useless. You're just lumping absolutely everything that happened during the day into one big post. Not only is it a horrible way to pass a point across, but it can end up misleading as to what is truly important. The only situation in which this could be useful is when coming from a confirmed PR, and even then it wouldn't be a summary of what happened during the day and who agreed/disaggred with whom, it would have to be more succint. If you're really town, please don't do it like this again.
Not enough evidence here to outright call you scum, but I'm wary of you.
First, im glad to see such an informed post, it seems as if you were here the whole time.
Second, Im happy you to read into the current suspect for yourself, OtoshmonoU and not just vote because its happening. But I have one question regarding this nolynch, can you provide your reasoning why a no lynch would be better than being 100% on OtoshmonoU and getting some information out of it? Even if you don't nessecarily think he is scum, you seem to see why other people do, and I think a no lynch is a fairly weak first day. What is your opinion on this and how can it benefit the town rather than the lynch at hand?
Third, I appreciate the read on maverick, as it is the first read on him other than the mementoss/maverick mafia team conspiracy. Though I am not convinced he is scum, and that all this behaviour is scummy, it is definitily worth looking at and thinking about.
The only information we'll gain from Otosh is if he's town or not. Also (and more importantly), if he turns out to be town, what then? Do we accuse you for starting the finger pointing at him? Do we accuse the people who went in with you? What about everyone else who joined the bandwagon?
No, it would be dismissed as a mistake given that it was his own damn fault for being lynched. So, nothing gained aside from knowing he's town or not. One big bandwagon and an easy target. Tomorrow, though, we might have a cop report and possible a vigilante shooting.
I'll be rereading what led up to his accusations, see if anyone sticks out.
On March 03 2012 09:10 trackd00r wrote: Wow, nice find mementoss.
Gunman, now tell us why you want to lynch oto. You haven't given a reason why yet.
The main reason I am voting for him is because of what he said in this post + Show Spoiler +
Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs . I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts.
"Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs"
It seems to me like he was trying to turn the town against the ones who were directing and keeping the town on track at the time. It seemed like he was trying to destabilize the whole town by getting rid of Maverick and Mementoss, allowing the mafia to just lurk as we fought among ourselves.
"I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts."
It seems as though he is defending his mafia friends using the argument that they are new and will naturally stay quiet, a weak argument imo. Even if he is town, I don't follow his logic because lurkers are almost always bad and usually shouldn't be tolerated because they add nothing to the game.
Um, this isn't good at all. There are 5 players that haven't voted yet and it's almost lynch time S:
Sburbbles, I'm glad you posted. Well, I agree with your read on maverick at some degree Specially when you pointed out the lists. These lists aren't really helpful. They are just an excuse to generate content most of the time.
Regarding oto, I think that the lynch is pretty much on him right now. I hardly see that we are able to take a organized decision at this rate. My vote on him is not only because he didn't take a time to read or he ignored the accusations. It is to see how everyone else see this move as well. I can't make conclusions yet because there are people who haven't posted/voted by this time (cheez, it's freaking 30 mins before the deadline)
I might go for a no lynch now. But the only justification for this action to happen is the enormous lack of activity around the thread. If it wasn't for that, there would be no way I'd support a NL.
I'm on break from class... But wow.. I didn't realize you guys hated organized data!! I've been tracking everyone in a word document so I wanted to share to stir up conversation... Not to confuse. I'll try to keep posts about summaries to a minimum and focus on reads and analysis.
On March 03 2012 10:40 Sbrubbles wrote: If a lot of people (in this case, 5) don't vote, what happens (given that voting is mandatory)?
They will receive a warning and be asked if they wish to be subbed out. If I don't get a response, I'll try to replace them or modkill if replacements aren't available. A second warning results in a modkill as well.
Hi Sbrubbles! For Mr. Trackd00r, I must say that I cannot answer your accusations because I cannot understand what exactly your question is and it's been getting on my nerves and I will refuse to quote them. I won't think negatively of anyone that wants to bandwagon and not think for themselves. So basing on the posts I have made I could either be an extremely dumb mafia someone who would be so transparent to give out such easy suspicion or a random townie that was trying to get a feel of the game and gets bombarded with accusation and receive more accusations for defending myself.
I will stand on my suspicion over mementoss and maverick, but also state that DimmuKlok is giving me an iffy feeling. "I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today" "##FoS: Rainmaker5" "I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency" "##Vote: OtoshimonoU"
Maybe he's just a townie that doesn't understand what he wants to do or just wants to follow the leader or someone that wants someone lynched. I can't get a clear view of him, all I see from him is throwing out random thoughts.
I don't understand Tiystus either. Hopefully someone can find what we're looking for.
And Sufficiency, you're just confused and lost your head. None of your posts making sense, but I don't find you scummy.(jk)
Well back from class... and this was very disappointing to say the least... I think a lot of us (at least me) spent some time in this thread.. and to have a third of the people not even bother voting just really is annoying....
Even among those 4 that didn't bother to vote, we also have 1 person who is brand new.. and another one who is just ridiculous (sufficiency)....
Where do we even go from here? I honestly don't know what there is to discuss at this point? I mean, I guess we can keep pointing fingers.. but that really doesn't get us closer to anything...
I guess for the sake of defending myself,
@Sbrubbles- feel free to check my limited post history outside of this thread.. I'm very long winded and analytically in my posts... As for the chart, I see the mixup... I was looking at it as the town that are influenced by the mafia.. so I took my base number as the townies.. and you took it as everyone... It really doesn't matter what the numbers are really.. it was just designed to show that RL was a bad idea.. and that in reality a no lynch would be better for us and minimize our loses... so its the concept thats important..
2) The whole point of lynching lurkers is that they are usually scum, not usually town. There's a good chance there are 2 mafia guys going along with the discussion, but that a third one is hanging back to not endanger himself of later days. If we have to choose between two lurkers, it is up to us (town) to not be dissuaded by someone (or two) who knows which lurker is mafia and which one is town. Still, lynching lurkers is a good strategy, having no better suspect.
That is one way of looking at it.. This is my thought process though- Lets say all 3 mafia players are being active at that point in the game. And one of them says "lets lynch the lurkers". Clearly the 3 mafia are aware that they aren't even being considered at this point as potential suspects.... so wouldn't they be okay with this idea? Especially with the amount of low posts at the time- This idea just seems bad. I wonder if someone who has actual contributed and agreed and disagreed with people would be better.. if we got a hit on them, it would be easy to follow them around to other people. As opposed to if we hit a lurker.. okay. we got a mafia.... but now what? And if we got a townie.. we actually accomplished nothing at all.
This is obviously my view on this generalized idea- which makes me a suspect.. how?
3) Nervous of sounding "bloodthirsty". You're not even close to the accusation center and you apologise in 3 different posts?
Yep, I actually acknowledged that as well... And I've accused multiple people at this point to stir up conversations in preparation of the vote.
4) Your big "summary post". Great way to sound pro-town while being useless. You're just lumping absolutely everything that happened during the day into one big post. Not only is it a horrible way to pass a point across, but it can end up misleading as to what is truly important. The only situation in which this could be useful is when coming from a confirmed PR, and even then it wouldn't be a summary of what happened during the day and who agreed/disaggred with whom, it would have to be more succint. If you're really town, please don't do it like this again.
I don't have any other way to possibly convey the information that is occurring... You come off extremely arrogant in all of these points with an attitude of "I know more than you" and its really off putting to me. This of course has no indication of town/scum- just something that makes it hard to agree with you.
As for the "Mementoss and Maverick" connection... That just doesn't add up... we both are taking a logical approach and are active.. it just makes sense that the active people we be talking to each other.... Its good to see that our newest addition is involved however, so we will see what happens...
This is pathetic. 4 people didn't even vote. Where is my motivation to participate when people don't even put in the time to vote for someone.
On March 03 2012 12:45 OtoshimonoU wrote: Hi Sbrubbles! For Mr. Trackd00r, I must say that I cannot answer your accusations because I cannot understand what exactly your question is and it's been getting on my nerves and I will refuse to quote them. I won't think negatively of anyone that wants to bandwagon and not think for themselves. So basing on the posts I have made I could either be an extremely dumb mafia someone who would be so transparent to give out such easy suspicion or a random townie that was trying to get a feel of the game and gets bombarded with accusation and receive more accusations for defending myself.
I will stand on my suspicion over mementoss and maverick, but also state that DimmuKlok is giving me an iffy feeling. "I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today" "##FoS: Rainmaker5" "I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency" "##Vote: OtoshimonoU"
Maybe he's just a townie that doesn't understand what he wants to do or just wants to follow the leader or someone that wants someone lynched. I can't get a clear view of him, all I see from him is throwing out random thoughts.
I don't understand Tiystus either. Hopefully someone can find what we're looking for.
And Sufficiency, you're just confused and lost your head. None of your posts making sense, but I don't find you scummy.(jk)
I'm glad you have an iffy feeling about me bro. There's not much to be worried about considering you didn't even vote. You realize that the only power the town has as a whole is lynching right? When you show you want to put forth the effort to participate in this game, then I'll put in the effort to respond to your garbage accusations.
lol i go take a test and head out for drink and I'm fosed twice the shit.
the trick to playing town is to be honest and not mad, I made a post where I read the entire thread and made opinions while reading it. I'd love to see everyone's opinions on everyone.
basically the point of mafia in my real life experience is to clear all scum. So don't get butthurt when people are suspicious. Especially early on we can't get reads. But as town we need to fucking lynch someone, just to clear out people.
I've said it once and I'll say it again- if town doesn't lynch they lose. If you're town and you want to win post, and try to get reads. Otoshi is still #1 on my list because he refuses to do either except defend himself in a trashy way, but whatever I'll talk more when I'm sober.
Lynch everyone that didn't vote see if we can get a decent late game going. Is all that I feel like right now -__- . Its been a long time and I hoped to come back to at least 3 pages of some sort of spark of discussion. Last nights no-lynch seems like a huge fuck up to me. And since there is 5 lurkers non voters, even if 3 of them are scum (doubtful maybe 1) they are ass-fucking the town. It's going to be a hard game from here.
Bubbles I understand your reasoning for the non-lynch but at least lynching OtoshmonoU woulda lynched a non-vote/someone suspicious and woulda sparked some active and productive discussion for today. As it stands, what do we have to discuss today? Who the mafia will kill? If they can even make a decision on who to kill? There is no more information to go on than during the day and I doubt the posting activity will rise. No-lynch is a shit situation cause were still at square 1 when it comes to finding out scum.
@rainmaker, there has been a couple opinions on your "analysis" post. Half the analysis was not analysis at all and just wishy washy thoughts and didn't deserve to be there. You would have been better off doing a 1-2 person analysis more in depth with related quotes etc etc. But hey, at least you voted. That seems towny, but so many people didn't vote that it just gives me a general lazy vibe. So its not really a good lead at all.
@OtoshmonoU be happy your alive. If your town at least start acting like it, and getting some posting done.
Mafia target me tonight? Good luck, if I go down I think its pretty obvious through my filter connections that can be easily made to pick out who is mafia. (The people I have targetted and actively pressured throughout the thread) --> Come at me bro
It's terrible for the game that 4 people didn't vote at all. Not voting =/= voting for no lynch because voting is mandatory as per OP. If we are to truly believe (and I'm not sure I do) that they didn't vote on purpose, thinking it meant no lynch, we have two possibilities:
1) If Otoshi ends up being mafia, there may be mafia among Pablols, Tiystus and Beorn. Then again, they may just have been townies who just forgot about the voting, thought the case was weak (like me) or refused to bandwagon. 2) If Otoshi ends up being town, we can be almost 100% sure Pablols, Tiystus, and Beorn are also town. Then again, they may have been mafia who just forgot about the voting or the mafia among them decided to not vote for Otoshi in order to build trust with the town. Still, I find both these alternatives very unlikely because a) being mafia (or a town PR, for that matter) is more exiting, so if you're gonna lurk you're gonna do it on purpose and sure as hell you aren't gonna miss a mandatory vote, risking a modkill and b) the mafia avoiding a free lynching to build up town cred is a weak idea at this point of the game.
My suggestion for the detective (if we have one) is to investigate this night: 1) Otoshi, 2) Beorn (maybe, one of the other lurkers) or 3) Maverick, who still sounds suspicious to me. Next night you can claim your role even if he's inno unless, of course, our doc (if we have one) gets killed in the night. My suggestion for the vigilante (if we have one) is refrain from shooting Otoshi until next night. You may want to shoot Beorn or one of the other lurkers (sufficiency comes to mind), but there's a good chance you'll be hitting a bad townie, which is bad but not as horrible as shooting someone who is active. Anyone else would be risky imho.
2) The whole point of lynching lurkers is that they are usually scum, not usually town. There's a good chance there are 2 mafia guys going along with the discussion, but that a third one is hanging back to not endanger himself of later days. If we have to choose between two lurkers, it is up to us (town) to not be dissuaded by someone (or two) who knows which lurker is mafia and which one is town. Still, lynching lurkers is a good strategy, having no better suspect.
That is one way of looking at it.. This is my thought process though- Lets say all 3 mafia players are being active at that point in the game. And one of them says "lets lynch the lurkers". Clearly the 3 mafia are aware that they aren't even being considered at this point as potential suspects.... so wouldn't they be okay with this idea? Especially with the amount of low posts at the time- This idea just seems bad. I wonder if someone who has actual contributed and agreed and disagreed with people would be better.. if we got a hit on them, it would be easy to follow them around to other people. As opposed to if we hit a lurker.. okay. we got a mafia.... but now what? And if we got a townie.. we actually accomplished nothing at all.
This is obviously my view on this generalized idea- which makes me a suspect.. how?
The point is that lurking is a great strategy for the mafia and we have to keep it from being so. When lurking the mafia doesn't have to expose themselves, have the same voting rights as everyone else and don't leave a trail we can follow later. Townies shouldn't lurk and townies who do shouldn't be tolerated because they give a shield behind which the lurking mafia can stay safe.
3) Nervous of sounding "bloodthirsty". You're not even close to the accusation center and you apologise in 3 different posts?
Yep, I actually acknowledged that as well... And I've accused multiple people at this point to stir up conversations in preparation of the vote.
I'm not calling attention to you sound/not sounding "bloodthirsty". I'm calling out your defensiveness about a simple word choice that no one was making a reference to (except for memetoss in one post)
4) Your big "summary post". Great way to sound pro-town while being useless. You're just lumping absolutely everything that happened during the day into one big post. Not only is it a horrible way to pass a point across, but it can end up misleading as to what is truly important. The only situation in which this could be useful is when coming from a confirmed PR, and even then it wouldn't be a summary of what happened during the day and who agreed/disaggred with whom, it would have to be more succint. If you're really town, please don't do it like this again.
I don't have any other way to possibly convey the information that is occurring... You come off extremely arrogant in all of these points with an attitude of "I know more than you" and its really off putting to me. This of course has no indication of town/scum- just something that makes it hard to agree with you.
Focus on your reads/topic at hand, not on summarizing who said what about whom and who dissagreed/agreed with whom over what. If we had everyone's opinion about everyone that would be a whopping 121 opinions, in other words, worthless. Everyone here who is taking this slightly seriously probably has their own small word document/spreadsheet with everyone else's name on it.
As for the "Mementoss and Maverick" connection... That just doesn't add up... we both are taking a logical approach and are active.. it just makes sense that the active people we be talking to each other.... Its good to see that our newest addition is involved however, so we will see what happens...
I agree that you're both probably not together. But one of you could be leading the other with good reads on bad townies instead of good reads on mafia. That sorta thing can happen on day 1 when the only thing people can do is point fingers at each other.
Well, this is pretty bad. I have no clue what we can do in this moment. I guess the only way we can progress is by applying a much more strict policy against lurkers. There's is a good chance that there is 1 scum at least around the people who didn't vote.
Anyways, maybe we should wait until the host/mods tell us if there are any players who will be replaced or modkilled. It's very frustrating to play with 1/3 players inactive.
lol day 2, where the game has completely new players seems to be the direction we're going in. But if it can promote activity and give the town a chance to get back into this game im all for it.
Ok, my suspicion is that this game is going to go on. In that case we need to move the conversation over to discussion on a way to solve the lurking problem we have, and start working towards a new lynch target.
My idea on fixing this problem is to force everyone post who they believe to be scum. All it needs to be is one person, and you don't have to put any effort into it if you don't want to. There's nothing against actually trying though.
The reason this idea works is because it's so easy. Mafia can easily participate in any way they feel fit, but they are forced to participate. It also brings back discussion with updated information. Comply or be lynched.
The only way I see this being exploited is if someone makes a simple post on someone and then lurks until it's lynching time. This behavior should be pretty easy to spot and pointed out by one of us, so I'm not too worried.
Hello everyone, new to Mafia, and I'm a college student on the east coast. I'm not sure how much time is needed to actually be a useful member, but I'll inform the thread on any times that I will be unavailable.
Nothing really major I can contribute, have to dig through the whole thread and read up. Will post later.
On March 04 2012 07:44 DimmuKlok wrote: Ok, my suspicion is that this game is going to go on. In that case we need to move the conversation over to discussion on a way to solve the lurking problem we have, and start working towards a new lynch target.
My idea on fixing this problem is to force everyone post who they believe to be scum. All it needs to be is one person, and you don't have to put any effort into it if you don't want to. There's nothing against actually trying though.
The reason this idea works is because it's so easy. Mafia can easily participate in any way they feel fit, but they are forced to participate. It also brings back discussion with updated information. Comply or be lynched.
The only way I see this being exploited is if someone makes a simple post on someone and then lurks until it's lynching time. This behavior should be pretty easy to spot and pointed out by one of us, so I'm not too worried.
This post pretty much confirms town on DimmuKlok's part. All his posts have good content in it, and the game was at a current state where lurking was the majority and mafia could sit back and laugh to victory as for almost 6 hours since the lynch nothing significant has been posted. Not that many people have been claiming DimmuKlok as mafia, but I want to go back and check who actually did call DimmuKlok mafia.
OtoshmonoU - Still feeling strong on him for the reasons stated previously in the thread. (check filter as there a couple long posts about OtoshmonoU in general.
This also makes me suspicisious of him,
On March 03 2012 12:45 OtoshimonoU wrote: I will stand on my suspicion over mementoss and maverick, but also state that DimmuKlok is giving me an iffy feeling. "I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today" "##FoS: Rainmaker5" "I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency" "##Vote: OtoshimonoU"
Maybe he's just a townie that doesn't understand what he wants to do or just wants to follow the leader or someone that wants someone lynched. I can't get a clear view of him, all I see from him is throwing out random thoughts.
As I stated he attacks Dimmu, who I strongly believe shows town. He also attacks other people similar to dimmuklok that produce thought out posts, and actively post. Such as Mementoss, and Maverick. Then he FoS, Sufficiency to blend in andor to get the attention off himself.
But I do not want a no lynch again. That being said my nuumber 2 is still Sufficiency. He makes no sense and is either a very confused townie, or a spammy derailing style mafia.
Other than that I would go with beorne just because of his 1 post count.
Everyone should post there FoS right now and we can move on from there, THIS HELPS THE TOWN. IF YOU ARE TOWN MAKE A GOOD POST, think it through. Anyone who doesn`t do this can be considered suspicious mafia or just ignoring the game completely.
On March 04 2012 08:17 kitaman27 wrote: blubbdavid has replaced Beorn1. Say hi!
Kitaman27 I would like to take this time to thank you for putting in all this effort to keep the game going and working even though almost half the roster was inactive. You`re doign a great job running/moderating the game keep it up.
On March 04 2012 08:17 kitaman27 wrote: blubbdavid has replaced Beorn1. Say hi!
Kitaman27 I would like to take this time to thank you for putting in all this effort to keep the game going and working even though almost half the roster was inactive. You`re doign a great job running/moderating the game keep it up.
Night is almost half done, Lurkers still lurking. New people I know its alot of pressure but try to read the thread as quick as possible and form your opinions in post. The town is in dire state as of late.
Based on my little list above, I would like to purpose a Plan to the Town. Since voting is in the next 24 hours, I would like every one to post their top 2 scum reads within the next 12 hours. I want to know why they are your scum reads, quoting someone elses opinion is not acceptable. Must be backed up by some evidence, filter quotes, pyscological reasons why they would say that if they were scum, why their behaviour is scummy etc. Many people have said will post later scum opinions and never have.
On March 04 2012 07:44 DimmuKlok wrote: My idea on fixing this problem is to force everyone post who they believe to be scum. All it needs to be is one person, and you don't have to put any effort into it if you don't want to. There's nothing against actually trying though.
The reason this idea works is because it's so easy. Mafia can easily participate in any way they feel fit, but they are forced to participate. It also brings back discussion with updated information. Comply or be lynched.
The only way I see this being exploited is if someone makes a simple post on someone and then lurks until it's lynching time. This behavior should be pretty easy to spot and pointed out by one of us, so I'm not too worried.
On March 04 2012 08:08 Mementoss wrote: This post pretty much confirms town on DimmuKlok's part. All his posts have good content in it, and the game was at a current state where lurking was the majority and mafia could sit back and laugh to victory as for almost 6 hours since the lynch nothing significant has been posted. Not that many people have been claiming DimmuKlok as mafia, but I want to go back and check who actually did call DimmuKlok mafia.
So DimmuKlok's proposal would have us naming scumlists, when nothing has happened and no one is going to have solid reads yet especially with all the new replacements, myself included. As shown in my quotes, this proposal is essentially one Mementoss proposed 2 days earlier. Mementoss then proceeds to support DimmuKlok as "confirmed town" with the game still at status quo. Can you elaborate on this? Throwing around confirm posts with no one being lynched or dead seems a little premature.
For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
This is all just a bit ridiculous now that we have all of these new people here. Any reads that we had on anyone are confirmed useless- since odds are the 'lack of response' was due to a lack of interest in the game. I'm not really going to bandwagon with anyone since its pretty much a very different game at this point... I'm not going to vote OtoshimonoU since he actually responded. He didn't vote yet was suspicious of people.. I think he's just bad town... I'm keeping my eyes on Sbrubbles since I'm considering that he is worried that the town are active and he wants to instill some doubt and hostility in us.. that could be because I just don't like him though? we will see what happens after the first night rolls around.
My mistake on voting early, just getting my thoughts out there. I agree with you Maverick that is just kind of a messed up situation all around with all the replacements. I think it might be more fair to just re-game if that's the majority opinion and people are frustrated.
We have 3 people just jumping in, and it puts a lot of pressure on us if we're new to post something constructive or remain a lurker.
If we are to continue playing as is, isn't it better to get rid of a bad town rather than risk a no-lynch again?
On March 04 2012 09:20 Maverick32x wrote: This is all just a bit ridiculous now that we have all of these new people here. Any reads that we had on anyone are confirmed useless- since odds are the 'lack of response' was due to a lack of interest in the game. I'm not really going to bandwagon with anyone since its pretty much a very different game at this point... I'm not going to vote OtoshimonoU since he actually responded. He didn't vote yet was suspicious of people.. I think he's just bad town... I'm keeping my eyes on Sbrubbles since I'm considering that he is worried that the town are active and he wants to instill some doubt and hostility in us.. that could be because I just don't like him though? we will see what happens after the first night rolls around.
What is your reasoning behind OtoshimonoU being bad town over scum? Also I have been keeping my eyes on bubbles too. But I was wondering your reasoning behind this as well, is this just accusing him because he was bringing up you??
My opinion on the replacements is yes its sketchy but regame is sketchy too as you'll bring all the biases of this game into it cause its the saame players yet there could be different roles. Also you can still use previous reads on people that replaced the role cause scum coulda made a big mistake before replacement and then the replacement has to cover it upo, either that or they were so lurker that there was no read on them anyways.
I actually was writing "I think he is bad town since he didn't even vote", but then that actually makes him sound more like mafia.. Its just really difficult to do much without much to go on.. I guess I want to be careful about trying to take out people who are actually active haha
He responded pretty well when pressured, which I liked... I'll have to re-read through filters to talk more about it... Its still pretty early.. its not even the 2nd day yet...
As for Bubbles.. he just came in too hot to this whole thing.. I'm sure there is a lot of pressure to be subbed in mid-game.. but his "I know more than you" attitude just made me feel like he was trying to take over the group here rather quickly... start to influence and all.. I get the feeling that townies are more "community" focused.. trying to work with each other.... he just didn't strike me as a collaborator..
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: Based on my little list above, I would like to purpose a Plan to the Town. Since voting is in the next 24 hours, I would like every one to post their top 2 scum reads within the next 12 hours. I want to know why they are your scum reads, quoting someone elses opinion is not acceptable. Must be backed up by some evidence, filter quotes, pyscological reasons why they would say that if they were scum, why their behaviour is scummy etc. Many people have said will post later scum opinions and never have.
On March 04 2012 07:44 DimmuKlok wrote: My idea on fixing this problem is to force everyone post who they believe to be scum. All it needs to be is one person, and you don't have to put any effort into it if you don't want to. There's nothing against actually trying though.
The reason this idea works is because it's so easy. Mafia can easily participate in any way they feel fit, but they are forced to participate. It also brings back discussion with updated information. Comply or be lynched.
The only way I see this being exploited is if someone makes a simple post on someone and then lurks until it's lynching time. This behavior should be pretty easy to spot and pointed out by one of us, so I'm not too worried.
On March 04 2012 08:08 Mementoss wrote: This post pretty much confirms town on DimmuKlok's part. All his posts have good content in it, and the game was at a current state where lurking was the majority and mafia could sit back and laugh to victory as for almost 6 hours since the lynch nothing significant has been posted. Not that many people have been claiming DimmuKlok as mafia, but I want to go back and check who actually did call DimmuKlok mafia.
So DimmuKlok's proposal would have us naming scumlists, when nothing has happened and no one is going to have solid reads yet especially with all the new replacements, myself included. As shown in my quotes, this proposal is essentially one Mementoss proposed 2 days earlier. Mementoss then proceeds to support DimmuKlok as "confirmed town" with the game still at status quo. Can you elaborate on this? Throwing around confirm posts with no one being lynched or dead seems a little premature.
For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
My idea and Mementoss's idea are actually very different. His idea was to force everyone into coming up with 2 very detailed cases on 2 different people. There were lots of problems with this plan. One of which he states right after he tells everyone the plan:
Important READ THIS This plan will be pointless unless ALL town posts, if even 1 town does not post, the mafia can remain silent. If all town posts this forces mafia to post and might cause a slip, if they don't post suspicion is brought upon them. Right now we have about 6 barely active players, even if they are town they aren't coming up with ideas or opinions. This hurts everyones reads on scum.
People who have already posted their reads, me, trackd00r, and maverick. Feel free to re look at your reads and repost, but this plan is more focused towards the no opinion/little content posting section.
Peace, hopefully this will further prove/enforce some of my reads.
All town need to participate and the cases need to be damn good or they will get accused. This meant that the mafia simply didn't have to participate and all it took was one town player to not put in the effort. If you were going to participate you needed to put in a lot of effort, therefor not many people contributed and the idea died. Not surprising considering 4 people didn't even put in the effort to vote, and at least one was town.
This idea has none of those problems. You can choose to benefit the town by making a more detailed post on your scum read, but you don't have to. What you do have to do is post. Don't, and we'll simply lynch you. I'm not going to lie, the major problem with this plan is that we can't lynch someone that we have a case on unless we are nearly 100% sure he is mafia. Simply because we need to have consequences for not participating, and that's getting lynched.
Even that one problem is minor, though. A townie will not want to be lynched, therefor he will at least post. That will continue to narrow down the list of lurkers until you would have to be stupid not to accuse someone in order to not get lynched. If everyone is smart, everyone will post, and we can get new information out there and everyone participating.
In the chance that we have 1-3 lurkers when it comes time to vote, we'll have to pick which we feel is the best to lynch. I don't see that happening though with how easy it is to keep yourself from getting lynched(Post a scum read). When and if there are no lurkers, we can go back to voting for who you want to lynch.
I FoS Oto for the reasons I said in my earlier post. Also, he was very suspicious of maverick and mementoss, but didn't vote. It could be that he is town but just forgot, but that's doubtful seeing as how everyone was talking about it. It's more likely that he chose not to vote. He has also not given an excuse or reason to why he didn't vote. I'm also keeping an eye on bubbles. He also was very defensive of oto and agreed with him about suspecting maverick (which no one else did). If we lynch one, then the other will most likely be the same alignment.
Just an update: Rainmaker, Pablols, myself, Sufficiency, Sbrubbles, trackd00r, Oto, and blubbdavid have yet to post a scum read. You can expect mine tonight. I'll be looking forward to everyone elses.
Hey guys, I'm sorry I didn't vote and haven't posted for like a day. I had to study last minute for 2 exams... I'm glad it's over, I'll read the thread and post actively from now on . I'm confused though, what made Oto more suspicious than someone like Sufficiency? All he did was post one liner posts with no content. Just an idea, but what if the mafia were waiting for someone to vote for a townie and then went ahead and used their votes on him? I think there are at least 2 mafia among the ones who voted for oto on day 1, because honestly there wasn't enough info in my opinion to be sure he was scum.
Well... lets look at a couple possible motivations for this kill? Mementoss was definitely seen as a threat so lets look at what he's been saying and try to piece something together...
From Mafia perspective:
Mementoss was leading the charge against Oto... maybe they want us to retaliate by going after him? Or are they just trying to protect him?
Mementoss also was pressuring Pablol's a bit early on, maybe this was a revenge kill from him?
Also there was a lot of pressure directed at Sufficiency,,,..
What we can learn as town: Mementoss had a good read on Dim- if he was mafia, they wouldn't of killed Mementoss. I agree with Mementoss on that read.
Right now, my sights are set on Oto- finish what Mementoss started!!! Or brubbles... He seemed to leap out at me- yet didn't seem to say ANYTHING to mementoss who was sharing a lot of my reads also....
GG guys im upset that im leaving so early, but my aggressiveness seemed to lead to my lead my death!! Go town, try your best you can do it! My first game must have been fucked up by being too aggressive towards mafia. I'm at least happy I got to post what I thought what best after my death!!! I will still Obs this game! GL HF!
In this first Analysis, I want to cover the two most suspected subjects Sufficiency and OtoshimonoU.
1. Sufficiency
The posting of this guy is bad. Like, really really bad. If there is something this guy is good in, then it has to be his ability to prematurely make accusations.
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Sufficiency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
He accuses gunman for suggesting no RL. But actually, gunman is not opposed to a RL, he just wants to choose a better alternative. So, although gunman is not acting scummy, Sufficiency is really fast in blaming him. Further:
On March 01 2012 13:17 Sufficiency wrote: I also FoS OtoshimonoU for being a compromiser.
Pretty fast, huh? Then, after being called out, instead of becoming defensive and trying to explain his stance, he just refers to his earlier writings. Which are as useful as a cameltoe in a Zombie Apocalypse. Furthermore, his next posts are:
On March 02 2012 10:36 Maverick32x wrote: Okay guys. This is ALL of my reads over the past day. Let me know what you think. If any is inaccurate let me know, but I broke it down into looking at each player's tendency to agree/disagree with someone else to see if there are any patterns of "allegiance" that I can spot. I also looked at behaviors that can be interpreted as either Mafia or Town. I obviously couldn't hit on everything, but these were the things that jumped out at me.. feel free to agree/disagree all you'd like. Lastly, I put in some miscellaneous information that I just thought was interesting or factual about a stance that the person had.
I obviously didn't write stuff about myself, but if you'd like to create one for me, go ahead.
Agrees with: Dimx2 Disagrees with: Sufficiency. Mafia Behaviors: A kind of wishy-washy with his policy. Starts to fall to RL as a last resort if necessary. Though previously stated he wants to lynch for info, he now is considering a RL, but would prefer a ‘lurker’. Town Behaviors: Doesn’t want to lynch unless there is information to be gained. Repeats this information. Reinforces this idea a third time Misc: Against random lynching. Should only lynch for info. .
Agrees with: Maverickx2 Disagrees with: Trackd00r but takes it back. Sufficiency, OtoshimonUx3, Friedchicken, Pablols Mafia Behaviors: Possibly keeping attention off himself by focusing on others, Especially OtoshimonoU. Town Behaviors: Against Random Lynch- presents a well thought out argument. Continues to detail out his reasoning. Consistent with the people he disagrees with and the people he suspects. Misc: Claims himself as one of the most active. True?
Agrees with: Dissagrees with: Mafia Behaviors: Willing to sac a townie. Responds very late with little substancex2 Town Behaviors: Misc: Wants to move onto a new topic since random lynch has been discussed to death.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r-> takes it back(after being exonerated by him), lightly disagrees with Maverick, Mementossx4 Mafia Behaviors: Brings it back to the RL, despite everyone moving on from it. Rambles on a bit at this point. Town Behaviors: Decently argues for a move to lynch in looking at the long term perspective, willing to take a risk. Puts a lot of effort into pointing out that Mementoss if taking his words out of context. Wants to lynch for a purpose. Misc: Randomly accuses Mementoss seemingly because he is upset that he was accussed. A bit overaction.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Mementoss Mafia Behaviors: Indecisive. Encouraging risky/chaotic behaviors.Still contradictory statements. Says Dim is town, but then also accuses him of possibly being mafia. Brings back the RL discussion (though he has been mia for awhile) Town Behaviors: Would rather go with a hunch than a RL, but feels a lynch is necessary or town will lose. Misc: all for random lynch- posts that he’s reluctant. Sticks with reluctance, but again is on the “we need to do something NOW train” Back tracks and now is saying RL is a last resort. Didn't answer numerous questions directed at him.
Agrees with: Trackd00r, Mementoss Disagress with Mafia Behaviors: First post indicates a strong desire to try to push for a lynch. Town Behaviors: Still thinks we could lynch a lurker to ‘flush out mafia’, but doesn’t want to randomly do it. Recognizes that we are talking circles about Random lynching or not and wants to change topics. Misc:wants to lynch on day 1. But wants to see active posters and seems to want to decide on someone. Against random lynching though.
Mafia Behaviors: Wants to RL- pushes this hard. Accusses without any evidence or reasoning. Town Behaviors: Agrees with: Disagrees with: Gunman, OtoshimonU
Mafia Behaviors: poor logic, wants to lynch no matter what. Flips kind of. Would be willing to lynch a lurker, not necessarily random. There could be only town that are lurking however, so this could be a setup. Town Behaviors:
Agrees with: Pablols Disagrees with: Sufficiency- then flips to say he is town. OtoshimonUx2 Mafia Behaviors: Seems eager in the initial post to try to get people to accuse others right away. Uses past game as evidence of his ability to hunt down mafia to try to set up innocence. Brings up that the activity is too low, but hasn’t posted much. Town Behaviors: Initial post is encouraging and pro-town. Continues this trend, wants to hear people talk. Doesn’t want to RL Misc:Seems positive about staying active. Focuses on wording as his evidence.
Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r and Dim Mafia Behaviors: Wishy-washy. Willing to along with everyone, seems to be trying to lie low. Town Behaviors: Recognizes the disadvantages of a first day lynch and feels its too hasty. Misc: Against first day lynching since town is at disadvantage- but will go along if everyone else will do it. Defends Trak’s usage of “accusing” and seems to support him.
Mafia Behaviors: Longest Lurker by far. First post has 0 content. Town Behaviors:
How long have you been playing mafia, Maverick32x?
Useless. Fluffy. Scummy. But then:
On March 02 2012 17:31 Sufficiency wrote: OtoshimonoU: don't you find me scummy? I did fos you without explaining much.
Why would he want to bring attention to himself? As scum? This made me start to doubt… Let’s continue:
On March 03 2012 03:03 Sufficiency wrote: Anyway, the way I see it now, Beorn, OtoshimonoU, Rainmaker5 are either indifferent towns or scums. I was pointing FoS'es like crazy everywhere and these three failed to make any responses. I am especially happy about a beorn lynch because he said almost nothing so far (in case we actually want to do a lynch today). Surely, sometimes vanilla towners can be very quiet, but if he is allowed to live for too long, in lylo situations we may hammer wrong because he has only made one post so far.
I actually think Tiystus is town. The way he defended NL was pretty towntelling for me.
Proposing a Beorn lynch. (who, btw is my predecessor) Where are his suspicions against gunman? Looks like he loses interest in people as fast as he accuses them. Now is this information sufficient (pun totally intended) to accuse him as scum? I have my doubts, because of this post:
OtoshimonoU: don't you find me scummy? I did fos you without explaining much.
Why the hell does he ask him if he’s scummy? Is this the way scum behaves, especially at the first day, where every word can be used against you? Imo, Sufficiency is just outright bad. Everyone who has read the newbie guides sees that Suff doesn’t act like a newb scum. Newb scum try to blend in and don’t want to get attention. Suff is the opposite. He’s literally screaming “Lynch me!”. But it has to be good to be true. It’s too obvious. Would scum really do this? My conclusion is: Suff is just bad and doesn’t care too much.
So:
Sufficiency, if you don’t want to step up on the gallows, then please shape up your posting. At the moment I am trying to find some goodwill for you. But if you continue to hurt town like this, you will lose it fast. Faster than you could accuse someone.
2. OtoshimonoU
He looks like a bandwagoner:
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
He opposes a Lynch. Which isn’t unsensible, but like we all know, for some reason lynching is better because we can get information.
On March 01 2012 12:30 Maverick32x wrote: I agree- We should get a first day lynch if possible. I see your point OtoshimonU about being at a disadvantage- but I think we won't be gathering any information if we DON'T lynch.... plus it gives mafia a free kill on the first night. I hope everyone stays active since that is pretty much the only way we will be able win.
One question to you Trackdoor, you say "Don't be afraid to accuse anyone", but we really don't know ANYTHING right now. I'd like to try to stick to the facts/logic that are presented. Your post sounds really bold for being a first post. I'm not saying there is anything particularly scummy about that.. just something I noticed!
I do believe that he got that quote from a Mafia Guide here on TL, and also it's his second time playing so he might have more experience that any of first timers.
Or maybe I confused his words with the mafia guide... Anyway, if everyone is willing to random lynch I will too,
Clear bandwagoning. He would cast aside his own views if the majority has other views than him. Otoshi catches the attention of some. So he tries to defend himself with this bigworded post:
On March 02 2012 11:04 OtoshimonoU wrote: Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs. I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts.
On the first glance his theory of mafia being bigmouthed may have a point. He is suspecting Maverick, who has indeed contributed much to this thread now. But if Maverick was scum, would he really make a big post about probabilities only to influence innocent townies? Would mafia make such a big effort? Furthermore, the other guy he has been suspecting, mementoss, has flipped town. So Otoshi’s theory of two scums covering eachother has lost its base and its meaning.
Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts.
Why would Maverick need to do that? It’s obvious that he’s assuming that he’s town himself, so no need for some words. Imo, his post was a ditch attempt to evade getting lynched, by blaming others and not explaining his behavior. Although he was on the verge of getting lynched, he didn’t try to explain his behavior.
On March 03 2012 12:45 OtoshimonoU wrote: Hi Sbrubbles! For Mr. Trackd00r, I must say that I cannot answer your accusations because I cannot understand what exactly your question is and it's been getting on my nerves and I will refuse to quote them. I won't think negatively of anyone that wants to bandwagon and not think for themselves. So basing on the posts I have made I could either be an extremely dumb mafia someone who would be so transparent to give out such easy suspicion or a random townie that was trying to get a feel of the game and gets bombarded with accusation and receive more accusations for defending myself.
I will stand on my suspicion over mementoss and maverick, but also state that DimmuKlok is giving me an iffy feeling. "I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today" "##FoS: Rainmaker5" "I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency" "##Vote: OtoshimonoU"
Maybe he's just a townie that doesn't understand what he wants to do or just wants to follow the leader or someone that wants someone lynched. I can't get a clear view of him, all I see from him is throwing out random thoughts.
I don't understand Tiystus either. Hopefully someone can find what we're looking for.
And Sufficiency, you're just confused and lost your head. None of your posts making sense, but I don't find you scummy.(jk)
Now look at this post, it’s a real goldmine.
I won't think negatively of anyone that wants to bandwagon and not think for themselves.
Dude, you have been one of the biggest bandwaggoner so far. -.-‘
townie that was trying to get a feel of the game and gets bombarded with accusation and receive more accusations for defending myself.
You never tried to defend yourself. The rest of his post consists of accusing two further posters.
The difference between Sufficiency and him is that Suff didn’t try to blend in at all.
It was his luck that some people didn’t vote and so therefore his demise was postponed. For now I will cast my vote on him, because he is my scum read number one. If you are able to explain something, then maybe I will overthink it, but till then, OtoshimonoU, I will have my watchful eyes on you.
Whoa, so much better then Beorn!!!!! haha, Good post! I'm totally unsure about Sufficiency.. and continue to be so....
I'm leaving for class right now and won't be back home for about another 9ish hours... I'll try to check every so often on breaks to stay up to date on the thread.
Lets try to actually get a vote this time? I'm still thinking OtoshimonU- it provoked a response from Mafia and there seems to be sufficient reasons behind it...
Ok, now that mementoss has flipped green, lets analyze and try to point what motivations lead to his death. The most likely possibility are these:
- OtoshimonU is scum. Mafia took advantage of a no lynch last day to shoot one of his more consistent prosecutors, which was mementoss. Surely, there were (and currently are) many other players who are suspecting Oto, but in these case mafia got rid of the most active.
- Mementoss was the most active player in the thread. So, in order to keep the activity low, mafia killed him. In this case, finding the scum who did this move will be a more thrilling and difficult task.
Anyways, this situation really feels like it's day 1. With 3 replacements and a no-lynch, progress will be difficult.
What still makes my head puke is that Oto dodged not only mine, but other players accusations again.
I would like to hear about Rainmaker, Pablols and Willz and their stance at least in sufficiency or Oto. Any other possibilities are welcome though.
@ Blubb. I'm glad you posted. I agree with your view on sufficiency. He is probably a town player who is trying to play by his own. At least, he doesn't seem to have a dangerous agenda to town, so it's not something to worry about at the moment.
My top suspect is now Sufficiency. I guess I was wrong about Mementoss after all. Even though I don't really suspect Oto, I think that since Mementoss got killed targeting him is a good option. And @blubbdavid
Wow amazing post. can't wait to hear more reads from you.
In this first Analysis, I want to cover the two most suspected subjects Sufficiency and OtoshimonoU. 2. OtoshimonoU
He looks like a bandwagoner:
On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already.
He opposes a Lynch. Which isn’t unsensible, but like we all know, for some reason lynching is better because we can get information.
On March 01 2012 12:30 Maverick32x wrote: I agree- We should get a first day lynch if possible. I see your point OtoshimonU about being at a disadvantage- but I think we won't be gathering any information if we DON'T lynch.... plus it gives mafia a free kill on the first night. I hope everyone stays active since that is pretty much the only way we will be able win.
One question to you Trackdoor, you say "Don't be afraid to accuse anyone", but we really don't know ANYTHING right now. I'd like to try to stick to the facts/logic that are presented. Your post sounds really bold for being a first post. I'm not saying there is anything particularly scummy about that.. just something I noticed!
I do believe that he got that quote from a Mafia Guide here on TL, and also it's his second time playing so he might have more experience that any of first timers.
Or maybe I confused his words with the mafia guide... Anyway, if everyone is willing to random lynch I will too,
Clear bandwagoning. He would cast aside his own views if the majority has other views than him. Otoshi catches the attention of some. So he tries to defend himself with this bigworded post:
On March 02 2012 11:04 OtoshimonoU wrote: Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs. I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts.
On the first glance his theory of mafia being bigmouthed may have a point. He is suspecting Maverick, who has indeed contributed much to this thread now. But if Maverick was scum, would he really make a big post about probabilities only to influence innocent townies? Would mafia make such a big effort? Furthermore, the other guy he has been suspecting, mementoss, has flipped town. So Otoshi’s theory of two scums covering eachother has lost its base and its meaning.
Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts.
Why would Maverick need to do that? It’s obvious that he’s assuming that he’s town himself, so no need for some words. Imo, his post was a ditch attempt to evade getting lynched, by blaming others and not explaining his behavior. Although he was on the verge of getting lynched, he didn’t try to explain his behavior.
On March 03 2012 12:45 OtoshimonoU wrote: Hi Sbrubbles! For Mr. Trackd00r, I must say that I cannot answer your accusations because I cannot understand what exactly your question is and it's been getting on my nerves and I will refuse to quote them. I won't think negatively of anyone that wants to bandwagon and not think for themselves. So basing on the posts I have made I could either be an extremely dumb mafia someone who would be so transparent to give out such easy suspicion or a random townie that was trying to get a feel of the game and gets bombarded with accusation and receive more accusations for defending myself.
I will stand on my suspicion over mementoss and maverick, but also state that DimmuKlok is giving me an iffy feeling. "I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today" "##FoS: Rainmaker5" "I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency" "##Vote: OtoshimonoU"
Maybe he's just a townie that doesn't understand what he wants to do or just wants to follow the leader or someone that wants someone lynched. I can't get a clear view of him, all I see from him is throwing out random thoughts.
I don't understand Tiystus either. Hopefully someone can find what we're looking for.
And Sufficiency, you're just confused and lost your head. None of your posts making sense, but I don't find you scummy.(jk)
Now look at this post, it’s a real goldmine.
I won't think negatively of anyone that wants to bandwagon and not think for themselves.
Dude, you have been one of the biggest bandwaggoner so far. -.-‘
townie that was trying to get a feel of the game and gets bombarded with accusation and receive more accusations for defending myself.
You never tried to defend yourself. The rest of his post consists of accusing two further posters.
The difference between Sufficiency and him is that Suff didn’t try to blend in at all.
It was his luck that some people didn’t vote and so therefore his demise was postponed. For now I will cast my vote on him, because he is my scum read number one. If you are able to explain something, then maybe I will overthink it, but till then, OtoshimonoU, I will have my watchful eyes on you.
After reading the latest responses, I'm now a bit baffled. The majority opinion is that either Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU are scum, and that those are our two choices for a lynch. So here are my thoughts on them.
My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?
My opinion on Sufficiency: Looking through his filter, he also seems pretty apathetic. Mostly one line responses, nothing substantial, hasn't posted on his reads at all either. He originally targets OtoshimonoU and then later switches to beorn1 a lurker who has since been replaced. Both of these are easy decisions to make to seem town, but he hasn't commented on anyone else. Still highly suspicious behavior, and I'd be more willing to lynch Sufficiency first than to stay on the majority opinion of OtoshimonoU.
If we have 48 hours for this day cycle, we need to give time for the accused to start responding, especially to the new replacements, so we can get better/updated reads.
We have to lynch someone to try and gain more information, and having two easy suspects is fine for that, but I'd be leery that this is what mafia wants, us to mis-lynch while being directed by someone who is masquerading as one of the most active town posters.
Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.
I did vote against myself to prove my innocence if anything. I haven't given up yet, but if all of you do want to lynch me I can't stop you. If you want to ask me questions write one liners please and I'll answer with whatever I will.
Now that we are on Day 2 I'll be writing some opinion soon (no, I think Day 1 analysis is utter garbage, which is why I was more willing to lynch beorn1. But it seems that blubdavid is a good player...).
My current read is that beorn1/blubdavid is town. I also have a good guess at his role.
There were 7 votes on oto yesterday and oto didn't make a move to defend himself much. This seems to me like a vanilla town behaviour. If I were him, and I were almost certain to get lynched, I would claim a PR and fish out the real PR. He didn't do that. To me, this suggests that he is either really a vanilla town or he is a poorly played scum. In case he is scum then I wouldn't be too worried. He is on everyone's radar so if he does something scummy again we will catch him.
On March 05 2012 05:31 Sufficiency wrote: Now that we are on Day 2 I'll be writing some opinion soon (no, I think Day 1 analysis is utter garbage, which is why I was more willing to lynch beorn1. But it seems that blubdavid is a good player...).
My current read is that beorn1/blubdavid is town. I also have a good guess at his role.
There were 7 votes on oto yesterday and oto didn't make a move to defend himself much. This seems to me like a vanilla town behaviour. If I were him, and I were almost certain to get lynched, I would claim a PR and fish out the real PR. He didn't do that. To me, this suggests that he is either really a vanilla town or he is a poorly played scum. In case he is scum then I wouldn't be too worried. He is on everyone's radar so if he does something scummy again we will catch him.
^ I meant that If I were him and I was scum, and I were almost certain to get lynched, I would claim a PR and fish out the real PR.
On March 05 2012 05:31 Sufficiency wrote: Now that we are on Day 2 I'll be writing some opinion soon (no, I think Day 1 analysis is utter garbage, which is why I was more willing to lynch beorn1. But it seems that blubdavid is a good player...).
My current read is that beorn1/blubdavid is town. I also have a good guess at his role.
There were 7 votes on oto yesterday and oto didn't make a move to defend himself much. This seems to me like a vanilla town behaviour. If I were him, and I were almost certain to get lynched, I would claim a PR and fish out the real PR. He didn't do that. To me, this suggests that he is either really a vanilla town or he is a poorly played scum. In case he is scum then I wouldn't be too worried. He is on everyone's radar so if he does something scummy again we will catch him.
^ I meant that If I were him and I was scum, and I were almost certain to get lynched, I would claim a PR and fish out the real PR.
On March 05 2012 07:22 blubbdavid wrote: Power roles. Like DT, medic and so on. By claiming a PR it would make people hesitate to kill him, it would be a last ditch attempt to save his ass.
Judging from that you asked what PR is, I don't assume that you have one.
On March 05 2012 07:22 blubbdavid wrote: Power roles. Like DT, medic and so on. By claiming a PR it would make people hesitate to kill him, it would be a last ditch attempt to save his ass.
Judging from that you asked what PR is, I don't assume that you have one.
We have WAY too many Lurkers right now... I would love to say/think that everyone who is lurking is Mafia, but obviously that is impossile. There are people making votes with little or no explanation of why they are voting. Lets go through the list!(Just because I know how much Brubbles hates this)
1. )gunman103 Filter @I think that you're on the right track, and I follow a lot of your logic. (Suspecting Brubbles and Oto...) You've been able to post a decent amount, but I'd really like to try to get another person in here who actually is actively making reads.
3.) Rainmaker5 Filter Lurker. Barely any posts. Can't even get a good read off this guy. Was active-ish at the start, hasn't posted much since.
4.) Pablols Filter Makes me a bit nervous- he was adament that Mementoss was scum, yet he obviously isn't. I get how he got to this conclusion however, especially with the mis-qoutes and things like that... I will 100% agree that sufficiency is on my list. I'm still not sure if he is just bad town, or if he is scum... Either way, I'd really like to focus on him after Day 2....
5.) willz22912 Filter (replaced Tiystus) @ I agree that Oto is kind of a strange situation. I defintely get that he may of "just given up", but he really has done nothing to defend himself actively. One of the reasons why I think he is scum is because the vote didn't go through on Day 1. We were 1 vote away, yet we couldn't manage to get that? I feel like if he WAS town, scum would be eager to throw their votes behind him. If he ends up being town, I think our next list of suspects would be anyone that voted for him. If he flips mafia, we have a gold mine of information and will be able to narrow down who is scum relatively easily.
6.) DimmuKlok Filter Another person who was active prior to the Mementoss kill. Its unclear where you are at in all of this. It sounds like you want the conversations to pick up, but not much else beyond that. One thing that kind of makes me feel like you're town is that you were willing to seperate yourself from Mementoss as having a unique thought- I feel like if you were scum you would want to allign yourself with him as much as possible, but you're clearly willing to state your own opinion and not bandwagon....
7.) Sufficiency Filter Accusing people of nothing. Never explaining your position. Claiming you know roles... what a mess....
8.) Sbrubbles Filter(replaced friedchicken) His lack of vote resulted in a no-lynch situation. If Oto turns out to be Mafia, this is your next target without a doubt in my mind. If Oto is not mafia, then Brubbles is 100% town.
10.) trackd00r Filter Seems okay. Nothing too revolutionary in the posts, but accurate in my opinion. You recognized that mafia killed off one of the more active players to slow down activity, we need to realize that, and be ACTIVE.
11.) OtoshimonoU Filter We need to vote this guy. The information will be extremely helpful regardless of if he is scum or town. He has dodged everything we've thrown at him and hasn't been active at all. Again with my other point, if he WAS town, mafia would of voted him off with the lynch.
12.) blubbdavid Filter(replaced beorn1)
You were able to craft one of the detailed posts in terms of why we need to lynch Oto, and that is awesome. Keep up the good work!!! ALSO, if Blubb ends up being town, I think its interesting to see the votes that randomly got thrown at him from sufficiency....
In conclusion:
We need to lynch Oto or we will not make progress.
Haha, the fear of getting killed by scum prevents me from posting more. If the others would finally shape up and actively participate, then it would look better. We need reads from everyone.
Don't be afraid to post!! I honestly anticipate that I will be the next person to get killed in Night 2.. so I want to try to get some good reads out there as soon as possible before its too late. We need the people that haven't voted yet to VOTE. I know that one of them atleast is town!!!! We just need 6 votes for a lynch.. lets do this!
Oto is either a useless towny or mafia, I'm voting for him. I tried to get more information out of him before we lynch him, but he apparently has 0 reads...
Otoshi's apathy for his own precarious situation almost makes me want to vote for him, if only because it makes it apparent that he's not taking this game seriously. But my read hasn't changed, I still think he's a bad townie who doesn't care if he dies just so he can yell "fuck yal" to the rest of us once he's lynched.
Anyway, Maverick, here's a good way for you to make your case and try to convince me and the rest who still haven't voted:
On March 06 2012 01:54 Maverick32x wrote: 11.) OtoshimonoU Filter We need to vote this guy. The information will be extremely helpful regardless of if he is scum or town. He has dodged everything we've thrown at him and hasn't been active at all. Again with my other point, if he WAS town, mafia would of voted him off with the lynch.
Explain to us how you plan to use this information. I've already given my opinion on the issue:
On March 04 2012 00:49 Sbrubbles wrote: 1) If Otoshi ends up being mafia, there may be mafia among Pablols, Tiystus and Beorn. Then again, they may just have been townies who just forgot about the voting, thought the case was weak (like me) or refused to bandwagon. 2) If Otoshi ends up being town, we can be almost 100% sure Pablols, Tiystus, and Beorn are also town. Then again, they may have been mafia who just forgot about the voting or the mafia among them decided to not vote for Otoshi in order to build trust with the town. Still, I find both these alternatives very unlikely because a) being mafia (or a town PR, for that matter) is more exiting, so if you're gonna lurk you're gonna do it on purpose and sure as hell you aren't gonna miss a mandatory vote, risking a modkill and b) the mafia avoiding a free lynching to build up town cred is a weak idea at this point of the game.
which is to say there's not much gained from him being mafia. I believe that if there's a better case for lynching him, we can always do it tommorow, or can have the detective check him for us (which I had hoped he would this night, but apparently he didn't).
I was honestly hoping our detective would have something to spurn the discussion today. Of course, there's an actual possibility that there is no detective in this game, but that would be a little strange.
For now, as for the vote itself, I'm voting for our resident lurker Rainmaker. Beorn, who came out of the closet after transforming into blubbdavid, seems to be posting at least.
Tiystus and Beorn aren't in the game anymore- therefore its not helpful to try to read into the reasons why they didn't post...
As for how I plan to use this information? If Oto turns out to be Mafia. Sufficiency and you will likely be mafia. Both of you side tracked the last vote to keep him alive....
If he turns out to be town- Sufficiency and you are likely to be town. Myself, trackd00r and rainmaker should be looked at as highly suspicious for encouraging the vote.
pushing against Oto because of similar reasons like me, also FOS'ing pablols a bit. Also suggest lynching (useless) lurkers instead one of the more active townies. leaning on green
He has been more active than others, but is suffering on the OMGUS syndrome. Accused Mementoss. Other reads are Suff and Mav. Retracts read on mementoss because of misquoting (?). I am not really sure about it, that could just be scum tactics. Then pushes against suff, but finally votes for Oto. He's on my watchlist.
Most active player till now, encouraging other players. I don't think I have to say much about him, I am pretty sure that he is town. The only downside on him is that he surely is pretty high on scums blacklist. I hope we have a medic, and if we have one, then I hope he knows what he does.
He's pretty fast in voting, but he wants to generate discussion with his actions. He is pretty much acting on his own, not bandwagoning. But I want to see especially see his opinion on the other players. Particularly what he thinks about Rainmaker now.
On March 06 2012 04:57 blubbdavid wrote: 8) Sbrubbles + Show Spoiler +
Ha, he's pushing against Mav. But isn't consequent and votes for Rainmaker out of the blue.His alignment on depends what Oto will flip, as Mav said.
Don't take my vote as inconsequential. Rain hasn't posted anything since day 1 even that was meh in terms of productiveness. Lurkers are prime suspects on my book, and Rain is the quietest of them all.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
@Willz, I actually kind of agree with you Willz- However. Like I said in my post, if he flips green, that tells us A LOT actually. If you look at the Day 1 vote, he misses being lynched by ONE vote. That means, it is highly likely that mafia are within that voting group! (or the lurkers that didn't vote). So we've pretty much narrowed our focus significantly, and odds are that the people who didn't vote for him on Day 1 (besides lurkers) are also town.
I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
As now, my top scum reads are OtoshimonU- and Rainmaker5
I'm not going into details regarding Oto's case, since it's pretty much clear to many.
Rainmaker5 is different type of lurker. I wouldn't label as someone as a innocent townie trying to follow the most active or rational players and easily following trends. In fact, he tries so hard to appear to contribute in the only post that he made, and then never really appear again.
On March 03 2012 03:33 Rainmaker5 wrote: Ok I'm going to draft up a list and announce my vote real quick. this formatiting will be a bit wonky but I don't have time to really make shit pretty right now.
going to link post #s so I don't have to explain where I'm getting information
Otoshi~~~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011 Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch.
Gunman Don't really have a read on him b/c he doesn't really seem sure of his own opinion would like to hear more from him but I can't really say that FoSing currently
Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good
Mav is seems pretty opposed to a random lynch, not to much to say after that
Beorn doesn't really seem to have an opinion- no read
So I don't really like Pablos's style, but he cleaned up towards the end. Mav and Memtoss are off my radar currenly because even if they're scum they're encouraging posts and moving forward that's going to hurt them. Suff is kinda sketchy- takes attention away from his rampant fingering by putting it on people who didn't react.
But I really feel the guy who's generating the most noise is definitely OtoshimonoU. He feels really scummy and even if he's jsut playing poorly is the type of guy that real scum can use to keep deflecting attention.
Which I guess is something you can suspect me of doing lol
Anyway that's my vote and my analysis. Wish me luck on my Midterm!
You would say ' well, this looks like a pro-town post and encourages discussion, right?' NO, it isn't:
1) Look how he makes a summary of the recent events. Nothing really worth to contribute. 2) Notice how does he quote certain players while others not.
Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good
Not reasoning at all. Why would players which are constantly lurking seem good to you? Didn't you want to talk? Why would you let continue them lurking?
3) Notice how he didn't really pointed a finger on anyone. He claims that Mav and Mem are town just because if they were scum they would do X thing. Players that make justifications based that 'X guy is town because Y behavior would be backfired to scum' are very likely to flip scum.
Same thing happened with Oto. In this case, he isn't 100% sure that he is mafia. He took the luxury to say that he might be just poor town play. That explanation is much more developed than his final veredict.
This is the next post:
On March 03 2012 17:11 Rainmaker5 wrote: lol i go take a test and head out for drink and I'm fosed twice the shit.
the trick to playing town is to be honest and not mad, I made a post where I read the entire thread and made opinions while reading it. I'd love to see everyone's opinions on everyone.
basically the point of mafia in my real life experience is to clear all scum. So don't get butthurt when people are suspicious. Especially early on we can't get reads. But as town we need to fucking lynch someone, just to clear out people.
I've said it once and I'll say it again- if town doesn't lynch they lose. If you're town and you want to win post, and try to get reads. Otoshi is still #1 on my list because he refuses to do either except defend himself in a trashy way, but whatever I'll talk more when I'm sober.
CHEERS DUDES.
It's mostly fluff. He realizes that he is FoSed, but instead, he decides to dodge the attacks. Yea, you claim to be drunk. This statement is rather questionable.
On March 03 2012 17:12 Rainmaker5 wrote: I'll post a detailed analysis of everyone tomorrow btw. I apologize for not talking a big part in the game so far, but lifes a bitch.
He wills to post an analysis. The bad thing is that this never materializes.
Rainmaker5 is a dangerous lurker. I'm voting for him now. If Oto's lynch is pretty much set, I'll change my vote though. We don't want another No-lynch.
On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote: I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get.
I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on.
I'll switch to Rainmaker if we have the votes Willz, but I won't have another No-lynch.... I get where everyone is highlighting his lurking and how he is posting very little, yet still 'active'..... The only issue with this vote, is that we haven't had as much time to get people's opinions on this. We've really stuck with Suficiency and Oto as our two main suspects....
I guess this is where I'm stuck... Would Mafia vote for someone else, KNOWING that if they voted for Oto on Day 1.. that he would be lynched? I find it hard to believe that they would pass up a chance for Town to sacrifice their own member for pretty much no risk? (an overwhelming majority of active players) This is my number one reason for voting for Oto.
I'm not concerned about this day's vote, since clearly at this point since there are enough votes, Mafia can just lay low and vote whoever they want to, bandwagon, or not vote for anyone. However I think its important to really look at that first Day's vote....
So I'll stick to my theory that Sbrubbles and Sufficiency are probably not mafia based on their opportunity to kill Oto on the first night and passing it up.. that leaves:
Note that still, we haven't lost any power roles and still have have a detective out there. I think whoever the detective is should claim right now and give us his two reports, so our medic can guarantee he lives to talk on day 3. We'll have 3 reports to work with and a good suspect list, giving us a good chance to win this.
We should discuss right now who needs to be investigated tonight. Tomorrow I'll write down my reads. Right now I'm as tired as shit.
On March 06 2012 11:41 Maverick32x wrote: So I'll stick to my theory that Sbrubbles and Sufficiency are probably not mafia based on their opportunity to kill Oto on the first night and passing it up.. that leaves:
As some of our *active* possible culprits...Obviously the lurkers make it difficult... but there's some thoughts!!
Out of all of the people you listed, Rainmaker is definetly most suspicious and the most likely to be scum. I propose that we lynch rainmaker when day 3 comes around. Even if he is town, which he probably isn't, what are we really going to lose? A useless lurker who hasn't posted anything in almost 3 real life days, who also promised an analysis that never came. I really doubt that trackdoor and maverick are scum. If we lynched either of them, it would be a loss for all of us. It is possible that dimmuklok is scum, but again, it's doubtful compared to rainmaker. As for me, make up your own mind, but I think rainmaker should certainly be the next person to look hard at.
On March 06 2012 12:11 Sbrubbles wrote: Note that still, we haven't lost any power roles and still have have a detective out there. I think whoever the detective is should claim right now and give us his two reports, so our medic can guarantee he lives to talk on day 3. We'll have 3 reports to work with and a good suspect list, giving us a good chance to win this.
We should discuss right now who needs to be investigated tonight. Tomorrow I'll write down my reads. Right now I'm as tired as shit.
Are you sure that the DT should claim? If there is no medic he will be dead before he can report to us. Isn't it better to discuss now who to investigate so that the DT can claim the next day. This will leave the risk that scum coincidentally kills our DT, but I think it's better than hoping that we have a medic.
On March 06 2012 11:41 Maverick32x wrote: So I'll stick to my theory that Sbrubbles and Sufficiency are probably not mafia based on their opportunity to kill Oto on the first night and passing it up.. that leaves:
As some of our *active* possible culprits...Obviously the lurkers make it difficult... but there's some thoughts!!
You left me out here... I don't know if I should be happy or sad. Imo, guys that would be good investigation objects: Sufficiency Pablols Dimmu Rainmaker
On March 06 2012 12:11 Sbrubbles wrote: Note that still, we haven't lost any power roles and still have have a detective out there. I think whoever the detective is should claim right now and give us his two reports, so our medic can guarantee he lives to talk on day 3. We'll have 3 reports to work with and a good suspect list, giving us a good chance to win this.
We should discuss right now who needs to be investigated tonight. Tomorrow I'll write down my reads. Right now I'm as tired as shit.
Are you sure that the DT should claim? If there is no medic he will be dead before he can report to us. Isn't it better to discuss now who to investigate so that the DT can claim the next day. This will leave the risk that scum coincidentally kills our DT, but I think it's better than hoping that we have a medic.
Well I would think it would be weird not to have a medic in the game ... idk. Still, one thing I had forgotten is that there might be a mafia roleblocker, so it might really not be worth it for the detective to claim. Bah, idk any more.
Investigate Rainmaker first and foremost. The others you guys are curious of look like you're trying to find the scum that's trying to stay in the light. If that was the case, I'd be taking a closer look at Willz... Just sayin
I do see a case for lynching Rain when day 3 comes, given his lurking habit, his lack of good posts even when he was posting and his vote for Otoshi on day 1. BUT, knowing that we can still afford a possible mis-lynch tomorrow, I think the DT should investigate Dimmu instead, and here I'll make my case:
On March 03 2012 06:50 DimmuKlok wrote: Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for.
1) Begins day 1 voting for blubbdavid, the biggest lurker at the time "just to bring him out of hiding" and, once there were 4 votes on Otoshi (thus a good chance of getting rid of him), he switches his vote "to who he originally intended"! In fact, he doesn't explain anywhere why he's voting for Otoshi, except for saying it was who he originally intended on voting for!
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: Based on my little list above, I would like to purpose a Plan to the Town. Since voting is in the next 24 hours, I would like every one to post their top 2 scum reads within the next 12 hours. I want to know why they are your scum reads, quoting someone elses opinion is not acceptable. Must be backed up by some evidence, filter quotes, pyscological reasons why they would say that if they were scum, why their behaviour is scummy etc. Many people have said will post later scum opinions and never have.
On March 04 2012 07:44 DimmuKlok wrote: My idea on fixing this problem is to force everyone post who they believe to be scum. All it needs to be is one person, and you don't have to put any effort into it if you don't want to. There's nothing against actually trying though.
The reason this idea works is because it's so easy. Mafia can easily participate in any way they feel fit, but they are forced to participate. It also brings back discussion with updated information. Comply or be lynched.
The only way I see this being exploited is if someone makes a simple post on someone and then lurks until it's lynching time. This behavior should be pretty easy to spot and pointed out by one of us, so I'm not too worried.
On March 04 2012 08:08 Mementoss wrote: This post pretty much confirms town on DimmuKlok's part. All his posts have good content in it, and the game was at a current state where lurking was the majority and mafia could sit back and laugh to victory as for almost 6 hours since the lynch nothing significant has been posted. Not that many people have been claiming DimmuKlok as mafia, but I want to go back and check who actually did call DimmuKlok mafia.
So DimmuKlok's proposal would have us naming scumlists, when nothing has happened and no one is going to have solid reads yet especially with all the new replacements, myself included. As shown in my quotes, this proposal is essentially one Mementoss proposed 2 days earlier. Mementoss then proceeds to support DimmuKlok as "confirmed town" with the game still at status quo. Can you elaborate on this? Throwing around confirm posts with no one being lynched or dead seems a little premature.
For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
My idea and Mementoss's idea are actually very different. His idea was to force everyone into coming up with 2 very detailed cases on 2 different people. There were lots of problems with this plan. One of which he states right after he tells everyone the plan:
Important READ THIS This plan will be pointless unless ALL town posts, if even 1 town does not post, the mafia can remain silent. If all town posts this forces mafia to post and might cause a slip, if they don't post suspicion is brought upon them. Right now we have about 6 barely active players, even if they are town they aren't coming up with ideas or opinions. This hurts everyones reads on scum.
People who have already posted their reads, me, trackd00r, and maverick. Feel free to re look at your reads and repost, but this plan is more focused towards the no opinion/little content posting section.
Peace, hopefully this will further prove/enforce some of my reads.
All town need to participate and the cases need to be damn good or they will get accused. This meant that the mafia simply didn't have to participate and all it took was one town player to not put in the effort. If you were going to participate you needed to put in a lot of effort, therefor not many people contributed and the idea died. Not surprising considering 4 people didn't even put in the effort to vote, and at least one was town.
This idea has none of those problems. You can choose to benefit the town by making a more detailed post on your scum read, but you don't have to. What you do have to do is post. Don't, and we'll simply lynch you. I'm not going to lie, the major problem with this plan is that we can't lynch someone that we have a case on unless we are nearly 100% sure he is mafia. Simply because we need to have consequences for not participating, and that's getting lynched.
Even that one problem is minor, though. A townie will not want to be lynched, therefor he will at least post. That will continue to narrow down the list of lurkers until you would have to be stupid not to accuse someone in order to not get lynched. If everyone is smart, everyone will post, and we can get new information out there and everyone participating.
In the chance that we have 1-3 lurkers when it comes time to vote, we'll have to pick which we feel is the best to lynch. I don't see that happening though with how easy it is to keep yourself from getting lynched(Post a scum read). When and if there are no lurkers, we can go back to voting for who you want to lynch.
2) Night 1 and Day 2, besides once again not explaining his vote for Otoshi, his posts are either filler, or the discussion he had with Mementoss about lack of participation, which is not exactly what you would call "productive". But hey! At least he hedged his bets! + Show Spoiler +
On March 06 2012 04:08 DimmuKlok wrote: Oto is either a useless towny or mafia, I'm voting for him. I tried to get more information out of him before we lynch him, but he apparently has 0 reads...
On March 06 2012 22:47 DimmuKlok wrote: Investigate Rainmaker first and foremost. The others you guys are curious of look like you're trying to find the scum that's trying to stay in the light. If that was the case, I'd be taking a closer look at Willz... Just sayin
3) Besides the potshot at Willz (who I feel is town for not lynching Otto day 1, or at the very least null), he takes to accusing Rain. But Rain is already under heavy suspicion, and is a prime target for tomorrow, so I wouldn't find it strange for at least one of his buddies to bus (sacrifice) him in order to look townish.
4) Also note that there may be a Godfather in the game. If Rain is a Godfather, it would be textbook mafia play to try to get the DT to investigate him.
So, in summary, I think we should investigate Dimmu today, possibly lynch Rain tommorow and look for the 3rd mafia.
Oh shoot, didn't think about the possibility of a Godfather. Dimmu's now randomly pointed against Willz, that's confusing. Could you please elaborate more why Willz looks suspicious?
And I feel too that a DT case against Rain would be wasted. Even if Rain returned town, how would it be helpful? "Hey look guys, we have a townie here, but one who doesn't contibute."
On March 07 2012 00:46 blubbdavid wrote: Oh shoot, didn't think about the possibility of a Godfather. Dimmu's now randomly pointed against Willz, that's confusing. Could you please elaborate more why Willz looks suspicious?
And I feel too that a DT case against Rain would be wasted. Even if Rain returned town, how would it be helpful? "Hey look guys, we have a townie here, but one who doesn't contibute."
I don't see how a DT case on Rain is wasted, or even less effective than a DT case on anyone else. Everyone has the same chance of being mafia, statistically, and Rain is the most likely to come up as Mafia in my opinion. If you investigate anyone and they turn up town, what does that tell you? Nothing, because it could be wrong, and even if it's right then you just have a confirmed town player who will continue to do what they did before that.
I agree with blubb, investigating Rain would be pretty much a waste. Instead, I suggest that the vigilante (if there's one) should consider shooting him. But as he might be mod killed any now, I don't know if is better to wait for a replacement before taking any further actions. Anyways, we can't ignore him completely, since there is a very good chance that he turns scum, specially now that Oto flipped town.
I have some suspicions against gunman103. Will post analysis shortly.
On March 04 2012 09:11 willz22912 wrote: For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new).
On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote: My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?...
...Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post.
On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote: Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.
He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this:
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote: Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of...
On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote: Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information.
On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote: I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get.
I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on.
This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up.
After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either.
I need to kind of reorientate myself to the game however, since I put a lot of my stock in Oto flipping Mafia... I think I had a lot of assumptions built up around that...
Now lets get down to some reads...
-Rainmaker is the ultimate lurker. I'm not sure if this means he is scum? But its a big problem for me. He hasn't really engaged very much in the game, but still seems to just be 'around' and off a lot of people's radars. (mine at least).
- trackd00r- An interesting player to say the least...Early on he was big into going after oto and getting that ball rolling... However, notice that on the second day he switches his vote to Rainmaker? One thing that I found 'townie' about trackd00r, is his blatent accusations. I feel like if he is mafia, these will come back to haunt him. For example, he accusses both Oto and Rainmaker very hard. If we find out that he is Mafia, chances are that he wouldn't be posting such an accusatory post at his own team... so again, we are able to narrow down our possible suspects.... Obviously his read on Rainmaker is consistent with a lot of us, and seems justified... It does make me wonder if the people who are targetting rainmaker are just using the 'lurking' as an excuse to target a townie? Though apparently the general consensus is that lurkers= scum..
Thats all I got for right now- actually need to do work at work.. (imagine that..)
One thing that I'm really banking on is that we can catch a mafia SOON.... I really think that will only take 1 to start unravelling this mess...
I guess in terms of FoS- Rainmaker? Due to excessive lurking behaviors? I'm really not committed to that however, and I've obviously was wrong on the last one.. so I'm willing to get a couple more reads before deciding on anyone....
On March 04 2012 09:11 willz22912 wrote: For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new).
On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote: My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?...
...Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post.
On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote: Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.
He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this:
As you say yourself, none of this is incriminating. What happened is that he thought there was a case against Otoshi then changed his mind, as I was hoping the rest of you would also. Saying he would gain "no information" is an obvious exageration, with which I agreed to in principle. It was not clear Otoshi was mafia, there would be little information gained from him being mafia and no point in killing him otherwise.
On March 04 2012 00:49 Sbrubbles wrote: 1) If Otoshi ends up being mafia, there may be mafia among Pablols, Tiystus and Beorn. Then again, they may just have been townies who just forgot about the voting, thought the case was weak (like me) or refused to bandwagon. 2) If Otoshi ends up being town, we can be almost 100% sure Pablols, Tiystus, and Beorn are also town. Then again, they may have been mafia who just forgot about the voting or the mafia among them decided to not vote for Otoshi in order to build trust with the town. Still, I find both these alternatives very unlikely because a) being mafia (or a town PR, for that matter) is more exiting, so if you're gonna lurk you're gonna do it on purpose and sure as hell you aren't gonna miss a mandatory vote, risking a modkill and b) the mafia avoiding a free lynching to build up town cred is a weak idea at this point of the game.
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote: Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of...
On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote: Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information.
On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote: I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get.
I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on.
This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up.
After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either.
After he changed his mind, it's pretty clear he had the same opinion as me, that Otoshi would be a mislynch. The thing is, we dissagreed in that he thought a no-lynch would be worse than lynching a townie, a view that most of you seemed to agree on.
The fact that you're trying to get someone else investigated instead of trying to rebuke my read on you is more telling to me than anything else. I have strong feelings on you and probably Rain being two of our three scums. If we have a DT, it should be pretty clear who he needs to check up on. Whichever one of you two look closer to getting lynched on day 3 already has my vote.
On March 07 2012 02:52 trackd00r wrote: Well, that lynch didn't go good.
I agree with blubb, investigating Rain would be pretty much a waste. Instead, I suggest that the vigilante (if there's one) should consider shooting him. But as he might be mod killed any now, I don't know if is better to wait for a replacement before taking any further actions. Anyways, we can't ignore him completely, since there is a very good chance that he turns scum, specially now that Oto flipped town.
I have some suspicions against gunman103. Will post analysis shortly.
Pablols is lurking pretty hard.
If we had a vigilante, there would probably have been already two deaths in one night. That or he's choosing to not shoot anyone or our medic is a miracle worker. Also, I would appreciate to hear what you say on gunman. I feel Rain and Dimmu are strongly implicated as mafia and he would fit the picture well as the third mafia (though currently I'm reading him as null, at least without taking Rain and Dimmu into account). I had suspicion on Maverick, but the way he seemed emotionally invested in taking down Otoshi took him a bit off my radar.
Brubbles- Can you explain a bit more about why you think Dim is suspicious? I see a lot of flipflopping in willz's posts, and I do see where Dim is coming from with his reasoning. I don't think that is completely fabricated....
Also I'll take a moment to look through Dim's filter.... His posts are pretty 'pro-town'... He actively defended Mementoss (who was town), and is really anti-lurker in his posts. Also he matches your suspicion on Rainmaker....
How do we start to look at a lurker such as Rainmaker to try to figure out what our next steps are? Is this dependent on a DT? If we start to look at lurkers as our next target, Rainmaker is the only one that really fits that role the best...
As for being suspicous of me- I was really stubborn with that Oto lynch, and I regret that. I tunnel-visioned my way into a town lynch and I'm not pleased with that....
On March 07 2012 05:36 Maverick32x wrote: Brubbles- Can you explain a bit more about why you think Dim is suspicious? I see a lot of flipflopping in willz's posts, and I do see where Dim is coming from with his reasoning. I don't think that is completely fabricated....
Also I'll take a moment to look through Dim's filter.... His posts are pretty 'pro-town'... He actively defended Mementoss (who was town), and is really anti-lurker in his posts. Also he matches your suspicion on Rainmaker....
How do we start to look at a lurker such as Rainmaker to try to figure out what our next steps are? Is this dependent on a DT? If we start to look at lurkers as our next target, Rainmaker is the only one that really fits that role the best...
As for being suspicous of me- I was really stubborn with that Oto lynch, and I regret that. I tunnel-visioned my way into a town lynch and I'm not pleased with that....
I wrote a big post on it yesterday. Here it is again:
On March 06 2012 23:56 Sbrubbles wrote: I do see a case for lynching Rain when day 3 comes, given his lurking habit, his lack of good posts even when he was posting and his vote for Otoshi on day 1. BUT, knowing that we can still afford a possible mis-lynch tomorrow, I think the DT should investigate Dimmu instead, and here I'll make my case:
On March 03 2012 06:50 DimmuKlok wrote: Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for.
1) Begins day 1 voting for blubbdavid, the biggest lurker at the time "just to bring him out of hiding" and, once there were 4 votes on Otoshi (thus a good chance of getting rid of him), he switches his vote "to who he originally intended"! In fact, he doesn't explain anywhere why he's voting for Otoshi, except for saying it was who he originally intended on voting for!
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: Based on my little list above, I would like to purpose a Plan to the Town. Since voting is in the next 24 hours, I would like every one to post their top 2 scum reads within the next 12 hours. I want to know why they are your scum reads, quoting someone elses opinion is not acceptable. Must be backed up by some evidence, filter quotes, pyscological reasons why they would say that if they were scum, why their behaviour is scummy etc. Many people have said will post later scum opinions and never have.
On March 04 2012 07:44 DimmuKlok wrote: My idea on fixing this problem is to force everyone post who they believe to be scum. All it needs to be is one person, and you don't have to put any effort into it if you don't want to. There's nothing against actually trying though.
The reason this idea works is because it's so easy. Mafia can easily participate in any way they feel fit, but they are forced to participate. It also brings back discussion with updated information. Comply or be lynched.
The only way I see this being exploited is if someone makes a simple post on someone and then lurks until it's lynching time. This behavior should be pretty easy to spot and pointed out by one of us, so I'm not too worried.
On March 04 2012 08:08 Mementoss wrote: This post pretty much confirms town on DimmuKlok's part. All his posts have good content in it, and the game was at a current state where lurking was the majority and mafia could sit back and laugh to victory as for almost 6 hours since the lynch nothing significant has been posted. Not that many people have been claiming DimmuKlok as mafia, but I want to go back and check who actually did call DimmuKlok mafia.
So DimmuKlok's proposal would have us naming scumlists, when nothing has happened and no one is going to have solid reads yet especially with all the new replacements, myself included. As shown in my quotes, this proposal is essentially one Mementoss proposed 2 days earlier. Mementoss then proceeds to support DimmuKlok as "confirmed town" with the game still at status quo. Can you elaborate on this? Throwing around confirm posts with no one being lynched or dead seems a little premature.
For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
My idea and Mementoss's idea are actually very different. His idea was to force everyone into coming up with 2 very detailed cases on 2 different people. There were lots of problems with this plan. One of which he states right after he tells everyone the plan:
Important READ THIS This plan will be pointless unless ALL town posts, if even 1 town does not post, the mafia can remain silent. If all town posts this forces mafia to post and might cause a slip, if they don't post suspicion is brought upon them. Right now we have about 6 barely active players, even if they are town they aren't coming up with ideas or opinions. This hurts everyones reads on scum.
People who have already posted their reads, me, trackd00r, and maverick. Feel free to re look at your reads and repost, but this plan is more focused towards the no opinion/little content posting section.
Peace, hopefully this will further prove/enforce some of my reads.
All town need to participate and the cases need to be damn good or they will get accused. This meant that the mafia simply didn't have to participate and all it took was one town player to not put in the effort. If you were going to participate you needed to put in a lot of effort, therefor not many people contributed and the idea died. Not surprising considering 4 people didn't even put in the effort to vote, and at least one was town.
This idea has none of those problems. You can choose to benefit the town by making a more detailed post on your scum read, but you don't have to. What you do have to do is post. Don't, and we'll simply lynch you. I'm not going to lie, the major problem with this plan is that we can't lynch someone that we have a case on unless we are nearly 100% sure he is mafia. Simply because we need to have consequences for not participating, and that's getting lynched.
Even that one problem is minor, though. A townie will not want to be lynched, therefor he will at least post. That will continue to narrow down the list of lurkers until you would have to be stupid not to accuse someone in order to not get lynched. If everyone is smart, everyone will post, and we can get new information out there and everyone participating.
In the chance that we have 1-3 lurkers when it comes time to vote, we'll have to pick which we feel is the best to lynch. I don't see that happening though with how easy it is to keep yourself from getting lynched(Post a scum read). When and if there are no lurkers, we can go back to voting for who you want to lynch.
2) Night 1 and Day 2, besides once again not explaining his vote for Otoshi, his posts are either filler, or the discussion he had with Mementoss about lack of participation, which is not exactly what you would call "productive". But hey! At least he hedged his bets! + Show Spoiler +
On March 06 2012 04:08 DimmuKlok wrote: Oto is either a useless towny or mafia, I'm voting for him. I tried to get more information out of him before we lynch him, but he apparently has 0 reads...
On March 06 2012 22:47 DimmuKlok wrote: Investigate Rainmaker first and foremost. The others you guys are curious of look like you're trying to find the scum that's trying to stay in the light. If that was the case, I'd be taking a closer look at Willz... Just sayin
3) Besides the potshot at Willz (who I feel is town for not lynching Otto day 1, or at the very least null), he takes to accusing Rain. But Rain is already under heavy suspicion, and is a prime target for tomorrow, so I wouldn't find it strange for at least one of his buddies to bus (sacrifice) him in order to look townish.
4) Also note that there may be a Godfather in the game. If Rain is a Godfather, it would be textbook mafia play to try to get the DT to investigate him.
So, in summary, I think we should investigate Dimmu today, possibly lynch Rain tommorow and look for the 3rd mafia.
Oh, and add to that what I see as a crappy read of Willis, based, if anything, on the fact that Willis changed his mind on Otoshi (which I outlined above). Noting, of course, that Dimmu never, at any point, explained why he was voting for Otoshi.
One issue is that Willz took over for Tiystus after Day 1.. so he couldn't of voted for Oto...
I hadn't noticed that switch after a lot of votes on Oto though.. thats a good read. So you're suggesting that he assumed that Oto would of been lynched that first day, so he just changed to avoid suspicion.. pretty much what he is accusing Willz of doing? I do get a feeling that mafia would accuse others of behaviors that they themselves are doing...
I must not of read that post thoroughly, so I appreciate the repost... fits in well with your latest.....
Well I have to agree with Sbrubbles on this case. The townier between the two players is willz imo. I especially like this post of him, where he stems himself against the odds, I am baffled that Dimmu didn't include it in his analysis.
On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote:
After reading the latest responses, I'm now a bit baffled. The majority opinion is that either Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU are scum, and that those are our two choices for a lynch. So here are my thoughts on them.
My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?
My opinion on Sufficiency: Looking through his filter, he also seems pretty apathetic. Mostly one line responses, nothing substantial, hasn't posted on his reads at all either. He originally targets OtoshimonoU and then later switches to beorn1 a lurker who has since been replaced. Both of these are easy decisions to make to seem town, but he hasn't commented on anyone else. Still highly suspicious behavior, and I'd be more willing to lynch Sufficiency first than to stay on the majority opinion of OtoshimonoU.
If we have 48 hours for this day cycle, we need to give time for the accused to start responding, especially to the new replacements, so we can get better/updated reads.
We have to lynch someone to try and gain more information, and having two easy suspects is fine for that, but I'd be leery that this is what mafia wants, us to mis-lynch while being directed by someone who is masquerading as one of the most active town posters.
Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
It states pretty much how Oto would have felt as a townie on the edge. While I see that you guys suspect him of knowing more than other, it doesn't make sense to defend Oto like that. He could have easily bandwaggoned, but chose not to.
first suspected, then defended Oto Always talks about how Oto is town, it could be that he knows more than others. But paradoxically, he doesn't use that inf against Oto, but for him.
On March 06 2012 04:08 DimmuKlok wrote: Oto is either a useless towny or mafia, I'm voting for him. I tried to get more information out of him before we lynch him, but he apparently has 0 reads...
So despite admiting that there is a chance that Oto is town, you vote for him?
aghh, I have been lurking in this thread for hours now, watching the discussion unfold. It was pretty hard to come up with something useful and make a decision. It's a pity that we only have Mav's, Dimmu's and Brubble's view on the willz case.
On March 07 2012 06:13 Maverick32x wrote: One issue is that Willz took over for Tiystus after Day 1.. so he couldn't of voted for Oto...
I hadn't noticed that switch after a lot of votes on Oto though.. thats a good read. So you're suggesting that he assumed that Oto would of been lynched that first day, so he just changed to avoid suspicion.. pretty much what he is accusing Willz of doing? I do get a feeling that mafia would accuse others of behaviors that they themselves are doing...
I must not of read that post thoroughly, so I appreciate the repost... fits in well with your latest.....
No, my line of thought is that he switched into voting for Otoshi to try to lynch him after it was clear that a bandwagon was under way (like he did day 2). Of course, it wasn't enough on day 1 because we had 3 people (discounting myself and Otoshi, of course) who failed to vote. His initial vote was Beorn. For reference:
Pablols, Tiystus, OtoshimonoU, Beorn1 have all failed to vote. I will be pming them to see if they require a replacement. If I'm unable to do so, they will be modkilled.
This analysis is not focused in wording, but rather the way he weird way the approaches and lynches and his flippy/floppy behavior in general.
I need to say that Gunman has been the least innovative player in the thread until the last post he made. By the same standards, he has been the most bandwagony as well.
His first posts in the game are the usual fluffy lynch policies stuff. I won't bother in covering that.
On March 03 2012 08:03 gunman103 wrote: ##Vote: Tiystus
I thought I would go eat and give you time to give some time to give reasoning in the thread. Its been a half hour. You'd think you would post reasoning before running straight to the vote thread. You do realize voting without trying to at least convince your case/state your opinions in the thread is very suspicious play? The below is hardly reasoning.
On March 02 2012 11:54 gunman103 wrote: #1 Tiystus- He was fine with randomly killing someone early on but then changes his mind later. Seems like one of his scum friends told him what to say. He also never seems to make a decision on anything. .
This vote seems very selfish, and mafia motivated. Give some more reasoning behind this choice and why is this vote a better vote than OtoshmonoU? Why didn't you like the OtoshmonoU evidence that was given by a couple different people in this thread. It seems like you wanted vote without bringing attention to yourself, and to split the town into a no-lynch situation.
On March 01 2012 14:11 gunman103 wrote: DimmuKlok is right. If we have to do a lynch without a strong case, lynching a lurker would be more effective than a RL seeing as how most mafia are lurkers. Also, lets wait before we decide to lynch someone because we don't need to worry about it right now.
You even said it yourself, if your going to lynch you need a strong case. What is your strong case in this situation? Later in the above quote you said lynching a lurker would be better than lynching without a strong case, however your reasoning behind voting tiystus didn't mention anything about you thinking him, because he was a lurker. And if you were to vote for a lurker, wouldn't Beorn be a better case as he has the least amount of posts, and has given no kind of read yet?
Alright, I'll change my vote. I suppose I didn't really get a good enough read on oto and focused to much on lurkers. Now that I look at his posts, he does look suspicious. I suppose I thought that lynching a lurker would be better than killing a potential town because lynching a lurker wouldn't actually hurt us all that much because they don't add anything to the discussion, where as if we he turns out to be town, we wouldn't get his input.
What is really weird here is that he didn't even tried to make any justification regarding that vote to Tiystus. He was practically overwhelmed by mementoss with a simple ''Alright, I'll change my vote.'' This is just wrong. As a town player you need to push your reads and make a clear decision.
His read on Tiystus then was weak. He claimed that he was focusing too much on lurkers. Tiystus right then was NOT the biggest lurker so far. Oto was actually worse than Tiy. He even says that he didn't really took a look to Oto. If I remember, you said you would focus on the lurkers and you completely missed Oto case. That could mean that you either did not follow the thread correctly or you knew oto was town, if you know what I mean.
I asked him for an explanation why he wants to lynch oto:
On March 03 2012 09:10 trackd00r wrote: Wow, nice find mementoss.
Gunman, now tell us why you want to lynch oto. You haven't given a reason why yet.
The main reason I am voting for him is because of what he said in this post + Show Spoiler +
Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs . I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts.
"Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs"
It seems to me like he was trying to turn the town against the ones who were directing and keeping the town on track at the time. It seemed like he was trying to destabilize the whole town by getting rid of Maverick and Mementoss, allowing the mafia to just lurk as we fought among ourselves.
"I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts."
It seems as though he is defending his mafia friends using the argument that they are new and will naturally stay quiet, a weak argument imo. Even if he is town, I don't follow his logic because lurkers are almost always bad and usually shouldn't be tolerated because they add nothing to the game.
Look how unsure is he of his actions. Why wasn't he so wishy/washy when he attempted to lynch Tiystus? I need to add that this reasoning was exactly the same as Dimmuklok and I gave. These arguments were loosely based on ours. This is not contributing, is bandwagoning.
On March 02 2012 12:45 Sufficiency wrote: I say we lynch OtoshimonoU or gunman103
Can you at least give us a reason for wanting to lynch me and Oto?
Here he called out Sufficiency. He never pressured him again after that.
On March 04 2012 10:43 gunman103 wrote: I FoS Oto for the reasons I said in my earlier post. Also, he was very suspicious of maverick and mementoss, but didn't vote. It could be that he is town but just forgot, but that's doubtful seeing as how everyone was talking about it. It's more likely that he chose not to vote. He has also not given an excuse or reason to why he didn't vote. I'm also keeping an eye on bubbles. He also was very defensive of oto and agreed with him about suspecting maverick (which no one else did). If we lynch one, then the other will most likely be the same alignment.
Now he says then he is keeping an eye on bubbles. Zero reads/analysis/cases as well
On March 06 2012 11:41 Maverick32x wrote: So I'll stick to my theory that Sbrubbles and Sufficiency are probably not mafia based on their opportunity to kill Oto on the first night and passing it up.. that leaves:
As some of our *active* possible culprits...Obviously the lurkers make it difficult... but there's some thoughts!!
Out of all of the people you listed, Rainmaker is definetly most suspicious and the most likely to be scum. I propose that we lynch rainmaker when day 3 comes around. Even if he is town, which he probably isn't, what are we really going to lose? A useless lurker who hasn't posted anything in almost 3 real life days, who also promised an analysis that never came. I really doubt that trackdoor and maverick are scum. If we lynched either of them, it would be a loss for all of us. It is possible that dimmuklok is scum, but again, it's doubtful compared to rainmaker. As for me, make up your own mind, but I think rainmaker should certainly be the next person to look hard at.
1) They very fast and openly willing way of him trying to push a lynch, compared with his previous 'accusations'. He tries to look so, but so confident trying to push this lynch. And again, me and other players already started being suspicious of him. Again, repeating the same ideas we have made.
2) Why didn't he notice that bubbles weren't on that list when he actually in the past he wanted to keep an eye on him?
3) He says that Dimmuklok could be scum, but the justification he uses is to retract his fact is rain case. He didn't even bothered to say why does he looks scummy. Instead, jumped straight out to Rain.
So, to sum it up, gunman has been really uncooperative. He doesn't push out his suspicions. He throws off names instead and jump in what's hot.
This case can be supported with the fact of Mementoss death. His previous suspicions on Gum might have triggered the alarm to mafia, rather and his activity.
It's always interesting to see a different opinion of what you wrote presented, I agree with DimmuKlok in that I do look suspicious for switching my vote so often but strongly disagree that I was trying to hide my malicious intent, my only response is to post my thought processes during each post that I have made.
On March 04 2012 09:11 willz22912 wrote: For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new).
On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote: My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?...
...Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post.
Here at the beginning, I point out that I have not played a single game of Mafia, and even worse I am a replacement coming in after a really poor Day1. I had no direct interaction with anyone, I was under the burden of making a case based on what was already written, and based on that I agreed with the OtoshimonoU case and supported it.
On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote: Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.
He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this:
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote: Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of...
Here is after OtoshimonoU finally responded (by voting for himself) after not even trying to defend himself with any critique on the analysis done against him. This changed my opinion on him to being a townie with everyone against him rather than a true Mafia. That opinion was stated, but I also acknowledge that it is suspicious of me to flip-flop by agreeing in the beginning, changing my vote to Sufficiency, and then changing back to OtoshimonoU to make sure the vote goes through. I should have been more steadfast in my opinion and continued to vote against OtoshimonoU once I made my position/thoughts clear. I now know better for the future.
On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote: Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information.
As stated above, I posted that I believed with a 90% certainty that OtoshimonoU was town based on his reactions to the accusations and keeping in mind everyone is a general newbie. I was trying to empathize with his situation and see that I would probably have done the exact same thing in his case, because the momentum was completely against me and it was already too late to convince any of the replacements of my innocence. That being said, my posts were as a response to Maverick, arguing with him over OtoshimonoU's case, and debating the amount of information to be gained. My opinion was that it was too late to try and save OtoshimonoU, even though I personally believed in his innocence. In that case, a mis-lynch would at least show that he was town, and cast suspicion on those who initially voted for him. However, I could not say with 100% certainty that he was town, so there was also a case of OtoshimonoU actually being truly Mafia, which would have justified everything and made my read incorrect. Either way, a lynch was needed to gain the information we have, whereas if I did not vote for OtoshimonoU I'm not sure the vote would have gone through, leading to no new information gained again. In the event that if I did not vote for OtoshimonoU and caused a no-lynch, leaving OtoshimonoU alive is also not a very good response, seeing as how he had 0 credibility and was still going to be the most suspicious suspect for a lot of people and seemed unenthusiastic about continuing to play in his situation.
On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote: I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get.
I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on.
This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up.
After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either.
This part, I don't really understand either. I was again disagreeing with Maverick about his opinion:
"I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles)
I was stating that in the event of OtoshimonoU flipping green (which was the case), it doesn't clear anyone of suspicion because the lynch took 2 days to accomplish and required new votes from the replacements who could or could not be Mafia. Everyone is still under scrutiny for voting for OtoshimonoU in my opinion because it was such an easy case to make to gain credibility as looking "town." In the emphasis you made about me knowing information, I felt based on my read that OtoshimonoU was green, and was continually harping on that in my discussion with Maverick. Personally, I can see the case you're trying to make against me, but it really seems like you're taking my conversation/responses to Maverick out of context more than I was trying to look innocent.
In fact, I was going to continue with Mementoss' thought that you were town, but now you have given me pause to reconsider my opinion of you. I will follow up on this with my own counter-analysis, but it involves part of what Sbrubbles already posted.
Ugh... Well this is quite bad... We have clearly been quite off.. even the town is lurking!!
Lets see who we have left- 1.) gunman103 - A bit lurky looking through his posts. Nothing major... in looking through his filters- has accused tiystus (Willz) and Pablos early on... but shifted to Mementoss. Its possible that these are more townies? Thats assuming he is scum.. which is something that we can't really guess that at this point in the game..
4.) Pablols - Another lurker.. (seeing a pattern?) Targetted Sufficiency (but who wasn't?). I'm also noticing a pattern of "you guys should participate more" and then the player actually doesn't participate in any discussions? Scum trait?
5.) willz22912 - targetting sufficiency a bit, but was defending Oto back and forth.. I know Dim built up a case against Willz, but its kinda 'meh' based off the responses....
6.) DimmuKlok - Targets Rain based off lurking... but he got modkilled.. so really I guess thats the ultimate lurking... Targets Willz based off some controversial posting, Seems suspicious of sufficiency...
7.) Sufficiency - This guy posts nothing of substance. Has pretty much not posted any suspiciouns outside of his day1 controverial FoS which made 0 sense.
10.) trackd00r - Targets Oto with a pretty large post... but its kind of 'early'.. His top 2 scum reads were Oto and Rainmaker... His accustation on Rain was a bit random.. accused him of lurker (which he was), but then followed it up by analyzing who he qoutes.. I don't like basing decisiosn off that since I don't think it really gives a lot of information.. but is rather a desperate attempt to make some behavior suspicious which really isnt.. His next targets though are Gunman and Pablols. I like his read on Gunman though actually.
12.) blubbdavid- Okay, This could be a REALLY long shot in the dark. But he throws out the following names as "You should investiage these people"- they are- Sufficiency, Pablols, Dim and Rainmaker... Rainmaker is confirmed town... He also really seems interested in trying to flush out a PR.... Lets say Blubb is mafia... It would make sense that he would want the DT to waste their last investigate (if they exist) to target one of them....AND to claim DT....
So here is my LAST thought... and this is really doubling down on this whole game.... and I'll admit that it is reckless.. but a big move may be our only chance to win...
If blubb slipped up here and screwed his team mates over.. the people who aren't listed as 'people to investigate' would be mafia....??
That is also potentially way too much of a leap- but I'm grasping at straws here!!!
One last thing.. where do we want to focus? Lurkers? Since just looking through those posts, we would want to hit gunman, pablols and sufficiency hands down... thats assuming that mafia are just lurking..
Well I didn't really propose to investigate rainmaker. We were more or less all looking into rainmakers direction, especially after gunman made pretty quick a post against him. On suff, Pablos and Dim... They are lurkers, or in Dim's case, I really don't have a good feeling. Second, I am thinking about how Scrubble's death could benefit mafia. Scrubbles FOS'd Rain and Dimmu, but maybe mafia is trying to lead us a wrong path. Third, Lurkers. They are a big problem. It wouldn't wonder me if the just ninjabandwagon the next train that comes up. By voting on one of the lurkers, maybe he will talk a bit more? Voting on gunman that he explains why he pushed rain so fast.
Thats the big issue though... I feel like we kind of have inactive town members... so I think its in the mafia's best interest to allow the lurkers to live.. but its possible they are running OUT of lurkers.. so now they want to shift to more 'active' players? I'm making a lot of assumptions right now however, and have little/nothing to back up these statements...
Pretty much I think we need to determine if we're going to focus lurkers or active players... What do we think? There are 3 predominant lurkers...
I was continuing with the read made by the late Mementoss that DimmuKlok was town. However with his attack on me, while justified in a certain degree with my behavior, I find that he has overextended himself and shown his true colors to be scum.
Now let's go over his post history. I'm not going to quote the filler posts here, so don't accuse me of picking and choosing, this post is already going to be super long without me adding everything DimmuKlok ever said added on to it. + Show Spoiler +
On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads.
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote: No, random lynch is not good at all. Better to go on some hunch. We already have a few little hunches that I would rather go on then just nothing at all. We also have someone who is inactive thus far. Those are 2 better options then random lynch.
Also, looking at Pablols filter, Stance: Random Lynch, lynch someone who opposes the lynch. --> Labels first post of the game as suspicious. 1 liner, no real logic to why its suspicious. Filler really.
--> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves.
-->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie.
-->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching. The general consensus of those without scummy tendencies have been to try and figure out a good candidate to lynch or lynch no one at all. He is really trying to push a lynch no matter what, risky play. As the townie mafia numbers get closer, the mafia advantage rises significantly. Two bad lynches could be game. Logic should be our weapon, not rolling the dice.
All in all lynching someone with no basis is an absolutely terrible option in this situation. Some circumstances in the game where you cannot risk the scum even getting 1 up, and you have no leads is a good situation to pick someone at random. This is not the case. We currently hold our people advantage and there is no desperation at this point in the game.
That being said I think we have some decent information to come up with the best lynchable candidate and we should try to keep discussing to get as much information out there as we can based on peoples post behavior.
Here are my top picks for scum right now: OtoshimonoU Pablols Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
He first establishes his credibility in the beginning by defending Mementoss, who was one of the most active posters in the thread and who was killed off Night1. If he was Mafia, he would look town by defending Mementoss, but now there's a reason that Mementoss was targetted first. By killing Mementoss off early right after he posts supporting DimmuKlok and "confirming town" he removes suspicion from himself, and can use his previous support of Mementoss to defend himself. Pretty scummy behavior here, I hope everyone else agrees.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
This is pretty amusing to me and pretty blatant suspicious behavior. You question Sufficiency, he gives a very vague response "gutty feelings", and you don't follow up on that, but then you agree with Sufficiency on lynching Beorn without question? This is even more damning when reading the following post:
@Sufficiency- Good posts!! I'm really glad to hear from you!! That being said, I truly am suspecting the following people as the most likely to be mafia at this point-
Sufficiency- Its not so much the things you said, but the reactions that I've been gathering from the bottom two. Obviously I suspected you from the start due to your poor posting. But it seems like a lot of the other people were eager to let you get by as "poor town", and you weren't confronted at all. Then all of a sudden you post that you want to get rid of the lurker, and Dim hopes right on board. You've established zero credability in this thread, if anything you were seen as a non-helpful, yet for some reason you're getting bandwagon support.....
Dim- You've spent a lot of time defending Mementoss, and bandwagoned with Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote:
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads. Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
I think this is highly suspicous behavior. Both players have bounced off each other and defended each other's actions to establish credability.
Mementos:
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Creating excuses for Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him.
You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia.
On March 03 2012 02:57 Mementoss wrote:
@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town.
Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well
On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote: Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r.
Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information.
My vote right now is committed to OtoshimonoU.
Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes.
All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia...
So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded.
Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time.
Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other.
On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more.
So now we see that DimmuKlok was agreeing with Sufficiency only to "draw Beorn out of hiding" but really he wanted to vote for OtoshimonoU the whole time, because he knew that Beorn wouldn't get enough votes and he wanted to make sure OtoshimonoU got lynched? Remember this behavior when I bring up how OtoshimonoU finally got lynched. Beorn ended up being a lurker and was replaced, targetting him was an easy move for any Mafia trying to blend in and pointing out obvious targets. The interaction between Sufficiency and DimmuKlok is pretty telling, DimmuKlok wasn't trying to bandwagon and support his fellow Mafia at all!
On March 03 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote: I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency. I can't tell if he's smart and trying to get reactions out of people with his posts, or one of the many other things I've considered. If people are interested I can make a more detailed case on my opinion of him, but even I'm not too confident in my read on him.
Pretty cute/telling here as well. He realizes that his interaction with Sufficiency has been pretty non-existant so he posts this to make sure there are no assumptions on them working together. He offers to post a more detailed case on him (which no one asks for) so he gets away scot free.
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: Based on my little list above, I would like to purpose a Plan to the Town. Since voting is in the next 24 hours, I would like every one to post their top 2 scum reads within the next 12 hours. I want to know why they are your scum reads, quoting someone elses opinion is not acceptable. Must be backed up by some evidence, filter quotes, pyscological reasons why they would say that if they were scum, why their behaviour is scummy etc. Many people have said will post later scum opinions and never have.
On March 04 2012 07:44 DimmuKlok wrote: My idea on fixing this problem is to force everyone post who they believe to be scum. All it needs to be is one person, and you don't have to put any effort into it if you don't want to. There's nothing against actually trying though.
The reason this idea works is because it's so easy. Mafia can easily participate in any way they feel fit, but they are forced to participate. It also brings back discussion with updated information. Comply or be lynched.
The only way I see this being exploited is if someone makes a simple post on someone and then lurks until it's lynching time. This behavior should be pretty easy to spot and pointed out by one of us, so I'm not too worried.
On March 04 2012 08:08 Mementoss wrote: This post pretty much confirms town on DimmuKlok's part. All his posts have good content in it, and the game was at a current state where lurking was the majority and mafia could sit back and laugh to victory as for almost 6 hours since the lynch nothing significant has been posted. Not that many people have been claiming DimmuKlok as mafia, but I want to go back and check who actually did call DimmuKlok mafia.
So DimmuKlok's proposal would have us naming scumlists, when nothing has happened and no one is going to have solid reads yet especially with all the new replacements, myself included. As shown in my quotes, this proposal is essentially one Mementoss proposed 2 days earlier. Mementoss then proceeds to support DimmuKlok as "confirmed town" with the game still at status quo. Can you elaborate on this? Throwing around confirm posts with no one being lynched or dead seems a little premature.
For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
My idea and Mementoss's idea are actually very different. His idea was to force everyone into coming up with 2 very detailed cases on 2 different people. There were lots of problems with this plan. One of which he states right after he tells everyone the plan:
Important READ THIS This plan will be pointless unless ALL town posts, if even 1 town does not post, the mafia can remain silent. If all town posts this forces mafia to post and might cause a slip, if they don't post suspicion is brought upon them. Right now we have about 6 barely active players, even if they are town they aren't coming up with ideas or opinions. This hurts everyones reads on scum.
People who have already posted their reads, me, trackd00r, and maverick. Feel free to re look at your reads and repost, but this plan is more focused towards the no opinion/little content posting section.
Peace, hopefully this will further prove/enforce some of my reads.
All town need to participate and the cases need to be damn good or they will get accused. This meant that the mafia simply didn't have to participate and all it took was one town player to not put in the effort. If you were going to participate you needed to put in a lot of effort, therefor not many people contributed and the idea died. Not surprising considering 4 people didn't even put in the effort to vote, and at least one was town.
This idea has none of those problems. You can choose to benefit the town by making a more detailed post on your scum read, but you don't have to. What you do have to do is post. Don't, and we'll simply lynch you. I'm not going to lie, the major problem with this plan is that we can't lynch someone that we have a case on unless we are nearly 100% sure he is mafia. Simply because we need to have consequences for not participating, and that's getting lynched.
Even that one problem is minor, though. A townie will not want to be lynched, therefor he will at least post. That will continue to narrow down the list of lurkers until you would have to be stupid not to accuse someone in order to not get lynched. If everyone is smart, everyone will post, and we can get new information out there and everyone participating.
In the chance that we have 1-3 lurkers when it comes time to vote, we'll have to pick which we feel is the best to lynch. I don't see that happening though with how easy it is to keep yourself from getting lynched(Post a scum read). When and if there are no lurkers, we can go back to voting for who you want to lynch.
So this was posted after Day1 and the unsuccessful lynch of OtoshimonoU. He tries to keep pretending his pro-town stance here by proposing this "everyone posts 1 scum read." It is important to see this in context as well from what we know now. Mementoss had the original idea and I called him out on this and he defended himself by saying "well it's not really the same." Sure what you wanted us to do compared to Mementoss was in the details different, but again, the general idea was posting scum reads, which was originally proposed by Mementoss. You are staying in his shadow to keep looking town.
On March 05 2012 08:27 DimmuKlok wrote: GG Mementoss, it's been fun.
OtoshimonoU, what is your read on Sufficiency? Also, who is your top scum read right now and why?
On March 06 2012 04:08 DimmuKlok wrote: Oto is either a useless towny or mafia, I'm voting for him. I tried to get more information out of him before we lynch him, but he apparently has 0 reads...
So here day 2 rolls around, Mementoss gets killed off so DimmuKlok needs to make sure the suspicion is still on OtoshimonoU. He calls him out, OtoshimonoU obviously did not respond very well, therefore there was no need for DimmuKlok to post anything except that "he is either a useless towny or mafia" as his justification. And that he "tried to get more information! But alas, OtoshimonoU was not sufficient in his defense and therefore it's still an ok lynch. Keep this in mind as well for later for when he calls me out and votes OtoshimonoU.
On March 04 2012 09:11 willz22912 wrote: For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new).
On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote: My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?...
...Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post.
On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote: Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.
He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this:
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote: Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of...
On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote: Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information.
On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote: I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get.
I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on.
This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up.
After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either.
Ahh my favorite part, where he has over-extended and now has shown his true [red]scum colors. The reasoning behind him attacking me is fairly obvious, I was being flip floppy over my vote and choices, he called me out on it. I am now a valid target for lynching day3 and an easy case to make from his opinion. However, it backfired because it was a weak argument, and I was defended by blubbdavid and Sburbbles (who was killed Night2). This leads to:
On March 07 2012 12:24 DimmuKlok wrote: GG Sbrubbles.
Looking forward to it, Willz. I admit my accusation wasn't the most solid. I stand by everything I said, but I accept the explanation you have given.
I'm going to see what I can put together with the information we gained with Sbrubbles and Rainmakers death.
So he sees that the case against me isn't going his way, more people are suspicious of him than me, realizes his mistake, and posts this in rebuttal? "Oops I guess my accusation wasn't the most solid?" This is also after Sbrubbles gets killed off, one of my strong defenders and one of the people who calls out DimmuKlok. He makes this post to bide his time and await another chance to make new accusations. If he was really town, he should be defending his stance a lot more than meekly backing down.
So finally in summary: DimmuKlok pretends to be town and proposes many pro-town things, and shields himself by defending Mementoss. Note his behavior Day1 that Sburbbles compiled: + Show Spoiler +
On March 07 2012 06:13 Maverick32x wrote: One issue is that Willz took over for Tiystus after Day 1.. so he couldn't of voted for Oto...
I hadn't noticed that switch after a lot of votes on Oto though.. thats a good read. So you're suggesting that he assumed that Oto would of been lynched that first day, so he just changed to avoid suspicion.. pretty much what he is accusing Willz of doing? I do get a feeling that mafia would accuse others of behaviors that they themselves are doing...
I must not of read that post thoroughly, so I appreciate the repost... fits in well with your latest.....
No, my line of thought is that he switched into voting for Otoshi to try to lynch him after it was clear that a bandwagon was under way (like he did day 2). Of course, it wasn't enough on day 1 because we had 3 people (discounting myself and Otoshi, of course) who failed to vote. His initial vote was Beorn. For reference:
Pablols, Tiystus, OtoshimonoU, Beorn1 have all failed to vote. I will be pming them to see if they require a replacement. If I'm unable to do so, they will be modkilled.
Rainmaker5 still need to vote. Thirty minutes remain
DimmuKlok initially votes Beorn1 a lurker agreeing with his buddy Sufficiency here. However, he sees that the vote is more likely to go in favor for OtoshimonoU and changes it accordingly. Day2 he doesn't post any new reasoning behind staying for OtoshimonoU, and calls me out for changing my vote to OtoshimonoU even though it was my opinion that OtoshimonoU would be town. Now that OtoshimonoU was successfully lynched as a mis-lynch he is looking for new targets, and the case against me is made to start suspicion for a day3 lynch.
As for the night kills and how they help DimmuKlok. DimmuKlok built his credibility by defending Mementoss, Mementoss was also one of the most active posters and even commented saying DimmuKlok was "confirmed town". By killing him that Night1, he retains his credibility and removes one of the most dangerous threats to people noticing his inconsistency. Night2, killing Sbrubbles aside from being our medic, was one of my defenders, and even called out DimmuKlok for his more suspicious behavior. Removing him would weaken any arguments I make because I could not use his future support.
I truly believe that DimmuKlok is truly [red]scum and I would highly suspect Sufficiency as well. If town is to win this game, we need to not have a single mis-lynch, and we can only do that by agreeing on the most likely suspects. I hope you agree with this case and choose to vote DimmuKlok for day3. This post was already super long, but please take a look at my supporters blubbdavid and Sbrubbles and their evidence against DimmuKlok as well.
I think most of the time the most active players are town devouring each other while scum can sit in the background because the townies don't have the balls to touch lurkers because they are unsure. Well, let's pressure those.
I'm off to class, so I wont be around for at least 8 hours to respond to anything, but if anyone has any questions or sees holes in my post, I can see where I wasn't entirely clear and I can add on to it. I just wanted to keep my promise of posting this and letting it generate discussion.
Willz, your case on me comes down to me looking like a town and behaving like a town, therefor I'm mafia in disguise. You said yourself we can't have a single mislynch, yet your proposal is to lynch the guy who's so pro town he's suspicious. The most surprising part of your post is that you were actually willing vote for me immediately after it. I'm guessing it's a scare tactic.
If I was worried about being considered mafia, I wouldn't be so open with my posting. If you look at my posts from a town point of view, it's very easy to see my agenda in every post.
I'm going to post again soon with any info I can come up with. Lets try to keep it as active as possible for this day.
Now let's go over his post history. I'm not going to quote the filler posts here, so don't accuse me of picking and choosing, this post is already going to be super long without me adding everything DimmuKlok ever said added on to it.
He first establishes his credibility in the beginning by defending Mementoss, who was one of the most active posters in the thread and who was killed off Night1. If he was Mafia, he would look town by defending Mementoss, but now there's a reason that Mementoss was targetted first. By killing Mementoss off early right after he posts supporting DimmuKlok and "confirming town" he removes suspicion from himself, and can use his previous support of Mementoss to defend himself. Pretty scummy behavior here, I hope everyone else agrees.
As for the night kills and how they help DimmuKlok. DimmuKlok built his credibility by defending Mementoss, Mementoss was also one of the most active posters and even commented saying DimmuKlok was "confirmed town". By killing him that Night1, he retains his credibility and removes one of the most dangerous threats to people noticing his inconsistency. Night2, killing Sbrubbles aside from being our medic, was one of my defenders, and even called out DimmuKlok for his more suspicious behavior. Removing him would weaken any arguments I make because I could not use his future support.
The death of Mementoss indeed built up some cred. But not so much like Otos death did for Scrubbles. Killing a townie after he supports you is a risky tactic, wouldn't it be better if Mementoss lived to support Dimmu? And by killing Scrubbles, wouldn't it make it obvious to take a look at Dimmu? I mean Scrubbles was against Dimmu. By killing Scrubbles, Dimmu would easily get the suspicion of us.
That's just something that worried me about your analysis. But I pretty much like the rest. But I will stay on gunmaker for now.
I don't think we should vote for Dim... Even if he IS mafia.. he is too ambigious at this point... He has particpated and been engaged... This is realistically our last chance to win this...... I'd be nervous voting someone who has been an integral part of this process... I'd rather target a lurker.. someone who particpated very litte..
On March 08 2012 05:04 Maverick32x wrote: I don't think we should vote for Dim... Even if he IS mafia.. he is too ambigious at this point... He has particpated and been engaged... This is realistically our last chance to win this...... I'd be nervous voting someone who has been an integral part of this process... I'd rather target a lurker.. someone who particpated very litte..
wat? And with lurker I suppose you mean Sufficieny, gunman and Pablols.
ugh, sorry, that makes no sense haha.. the dots are in the wrong place...
Here is the re-write:
I dont think we should vote for Dim. Even if he is mafia, he is too ambigious at this point. etc etc.
Basically what I'm trying to say is that he may very well be scum.. but I don't think we have as good a case against him as we do for gunman or pablols.. I'm still thinking that sufficiency is Town... call me crazy.. but that 1st day vote bought him my pseudo-support....
On March 08 2012 03:15 DimmuKlok wrote: Willz, your case on me comes down to me looking like a town and behaving like a town, therefor I'm mafia in disguise. You said yourself we can't have a single mislynch, yet your proposal is to lynch the guy who's so pro town he's suspicious. The most surprising part of your post is that you were actually willing vote for me immediately after it. I'm guessing it's a scare tactic.
If I was worried about being considered mafia, I wouldn't be so open with my posting. If you look at my posts from a town point of view, it's very easy to see my agenda in every post.
I'm going to post again soon with any info I can come up with. Lets try to keep it as active as possible for this day.
To DimmuKlok: So what's your read on Sufficiency that you promised to post if anyone asked, and can you explain what I quoted about your interaction with him Day1 and blindly agreeing with him to vote Beorn1 even though you contradict yourself later and say you were planning on voting for OtoshimonoU all along? That's town behavior in your opinion, if it is, then why'd you call me out for doing the same vote changing on OtoshimonoU?
You're still my top pick for scum, sorry.
As for everyone else, I can see trackd00r's case on gunman, but then trackd00r hasn't posted anything at all regarding DimmuKlok's accusations towards me, and neither have the other lurkers. So we take our chances picking a random lurker like gunman based off one person's case? With probably little to no rebuttal? I at least presented some serious points against DimmuKlok, but if you people want to roll the dice, then I'm not changing my vote this time.
On March 08 2012 04:13 blubbdavid wrote: Let me check some points of your post willz.
Now let's go over his post history. I'm not going to quote the filler posts here, so don't accuse me of picking and choosing, this post is already going to be super long without me adding everything DimmuKlok ever said added on to it.
He first establishes his credibility in the beginning by defending Mementoss, who was one of the most active posters in the thread and who was killed off Night1. If he was Mafia, he would look town by defending Mementoss, but now there's a reason that Mementoss was targetted first. By killing Mementoss off early right after he posts supporting DimmuKlok and "confirming town" he removes suspicion from himself, and can use his previous support of Mementoss to defend himself. Pretty scummy behavior here, I hope everyone else agrees.
As for the night kills and how they help DimmuKlok. DimmuKlok built his credibility by defending Mementoss, Mementoss was also one of the most active posters and even commented saying DimmuKlok was "confirmed town". By killing him that Night1, he retains his credibility and removes one of the most dangerous threats to people noticing his inconsistency. Night2, killing Sbrubbles aside from being our medic, was one of my defenders, and even called out DimmuKlok for his more suspicious behavior. Removing him would weaken any arguments I make because I could not use his future support.
The death of Mementoss indeed built up some cred. But not so much like Otos death did for Scrubbles. Killing a townie after he supports you is a risky tactic, wouldn't it be better if Mementoss lived to support Dimmu? And by killing Scrubbles, wouldn't it make it obvious to take a look at Dimmu? I mean Scrubbles was against Dimmu. By killing Scrubbles, Dimmu would easily get the suspicion of us.
That's just something that worried me about your analysis. But I pretty much like the rest. But I will stay on gunmaker for now.
To blubbdavid: How would killing a townie after he supports you be a risky tactic after the poor events of Day1? There was hardly any participation, the majority of players Day1 had low post counts, DimmuKlok and Mementoss were one of the most active. Would anyone have any good reason why Mementoss was targetted or any supsects? No, of course not, there was little information, and no reason to suspect DimmuKlok at this time. Do you really think that all mafia just try and lurk as much as possible? It's fairly obvious to go after lurkers, but it is not obvious to go after people who are the most active. Being active does not and should not give you the automatic feeling that someone is town, nor should it be a defense. Take a look at DimmuKlok's filter yourself and see how much useful information he really does post. It's not a lot, but hey he's active right?
By removing the only other active poster and having so much credibility, DimmuKlok dispels a lot of suspicion towards him, which is what Mafia would want! But even if you disregard how the Night kills may or may not have affected DimmuKlok, can you explain his behavior with Sufficiency, or the fact that he called me out and then retracted it with a "I guess my case wasn't that strong" when numerous people jumped to my defense? Why make a case against me at all then if you're not confident in your read.
He says my vote against him is a scare tactic, at least I'm willing to stand by my case and defend it until he posts a convincing defense besides one paragraph. In fact, I'm interested in seeing DimmuKlok's opinion on who we should vote for, considering you all believe he is still town.
We are now on a MYLO situation (if we mislynch we lose). This is my opinion about the situation right now.
I think we have to push a lurker lynch this day. And when I talk about lurker, I'm thinking about Gunman103, Pablols or Sufficiency. There is a good chance that 1 or maybe 2 players are scum, specially Gum or Pablo.
This is the reasoning behind it:
1) Look how we are now. Everyone points finger in different players. Maverick posts updated reports. Blubb pressures some players. Willz and Dimmu accusing each other. We are now in a town crisis. This leads to the idea that we are ultimately going to kill ourselves, and mafia just lurking back to see our slow death. This is what they have been doing all this time. If there was more than one active poster in the game by now, chances are that they want push a lynch in an easy target and just win the game right away. It's true to say that they might wait any longer to make this decision (since trying to risk the might end up losing 1 out of 3 mafia is pretty much a bad shot for them). The difference is that they can't do that because I don't see anything clear of any of the suspicious players. They are still laying back to see our own death.
2) These are the two players that are not having any attention by this time. We, as town, are ignoring him completely. In the situation we are now, there are probably two regular mafia posters who want to confuse us further more and the other one is not getting into the spotlight.
3) Any other case with the exception of Oto's case did not trigger any strong response so far. This is supported by the enormous lurking these last days. Now, there has been some of action, which I'll comment on soon.
Now @Willz. I actually like your case on Dimmuklok. The idea that he is using Mementoss as a justification card for everything is very convincing. I think I'm going to take a closer look on him than I did before.
Something I really disliked about him now was the way he took off all the pressure of you when he responded to your defense. I don't get why is he dropping the suspicion.
I have so many thoughts going around my head right now. I'll try to post again before I go to sleep.
On March 08 2012 09:59 trackd00r wrote: We are now on a MYLO situation (if we mislynch we lose). This is my opinion about the situation right now.
I think we have to push a lurker lynch this day. And when I talk about lurker, I'm thinking about Gunman103, Pablols or Sufficiency. There is a good chance that 1 or maybe 2 players are scum, specially Gum or Pablo.
This is the reasoning behind it:
1) Look how we are now. Everyone points finger in different players. Maverick posts updated reports. Blubb pressures some players. Willz and Dimmu accusing each other. We are now in a town crisis. This leads to the idea that we are ultimately going to kill ourselves, and mafia just lurking back to see our slow death. This is what they have been doing all this time. If there was more than one active poster in the game by now, chances are that they want push a lynch in an easy target and just win the game right away. It's true to say that they might wait any longer to make this decision (since trying to risk the might end up losing 1 out of 3 mafia is pretty much a bad shot for them). The difference is that they can't do that because I don't see anything clear of any of the suspicious players. They are still laying back to see our own death.
2) These are the two players that are not having any attention by this time. We, as town, are ignoring him completely. In the situation we are now, there are probably two regular mafia posters who want to confuse us further more and the other one is not getting into the spotlight.
3) Any other case with the exception of Oto's case did not trigger any strong response so far. This is supported by the enormous lurking these last days. Now, there has been some of action, which I'll comment on soon.
Now @Willz. I actually like your case on Dimmuklok. The idea that he is using Mementoss as a justification card for everything is very convincing. I think I'm going to take a closer look on him than I did before.
Something I really disliked about him now was the way he took off all the pressure of you when he responded to your defense. I don't get why is he dropping the suspicion.
I have so many thoughts going around my head right now. I'll try to post again before I go to sleep.
I dropped it because it wasn't solid, and I accepted his defense as a possible explanation. Everything I posted I actually felt was a possibility, but it was speculation. I didn't vote for him, I was trying to get a response out of him. There was a chance he might slip up in his response, but I thought it was acceptable so I dropped it.
I could have easily kept the pressure on and forced pages of arguing, or I could drop it and work toward a more likely lynch. In a MYLO situation, what would you have done?
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post.
On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote: Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.
He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this:
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote: Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of...
On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote: Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information.
All this ''information'' drama or pseudo contradiction that Dimmu is taking apart is rather unconvincing. Willz was sure that we wouldn't get any information off Oto's lynch. And then, he later say that we might get information because the lynch was pretty much set and he just hoped for the best. I just think his analysis that Dimmu made was nothing to bark about.
Also, I dislike his logic: Just because he wasn't 100% sure on Oto's case doesn't mean that he is mafia, or at least that's not how we should try to hunt down mafia this game.
Dimmuklok case doesn't have much substance. Now, his recent call to Pablols might see that he is trying to dig the other way and finding a path to push the killing blow to us, another mislynch.
There is like 0 interaction between Gunman and Dimmu. I think we might find a scummy couple here.
I repeat, I find weird that Dimmu has dropped the pressure onto Willz.
On March 08 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote: So what's your read on Sufficiency that you promised to post if anyone asked, and can you explain what I quoted about your interaction with him Day1 and blindly agreeing with him to vote Beorn1 even though you contradict yourself later and say you were planning on voting for OtoshimonoU all along? That's town behavior in your opinion, if it is, then why'd you call me out for doing the same vote changing on OtoshimonoU?
I already made a post explaining the vote on Beorn:
Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other.
The reason for my accusation was to get a response out of you. Check out what I posted about Mementoss earlier, and it might help explain:
On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads.
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote: No, random lynch is not good at all. Better to go on some hunch. We already have a few little hunches that I would rather go on then just nothing at all. We also have someone who is inactive thus far. Those are 2 better options then random lynch.
Also, looking at Pablols filter, Stance: Random Lynch, lynch someone who opposes the lynch. --> Labels first post of the game as suspicious. 1 liner, no real logic to why its suspicious. Filler really.
--> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves.
-->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie.
-->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching. The general consensus of those without scummy tendencies have been to try and figure out a good candidate to lynch or lynch no one at all. He is really trying to push a lynch no matter what, risky play. As the townie mafia numbers get closer, the mafia advantage rises significantly. Two bad lynches could be game. Logic should be our weapon, not rolling the dice.
All in all lynching someone with no basis is an absolutely terrible option in this situation. Some circumstances in the game where you cannot risk the scum even getting 1 up, and you have no leads is a good situation to pick someone at random. This is not the case. We currently hold our people advantage and there is no desperation at this point in the game.
That being said I think we have some decent information to come up with the best lynchable candidate and we should try to keep discussing to get as much information out there as we can based on peoples post behavior.
Here are my top picks for scum right now: OtoshimonoU Pablols Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
I really think we are pressuring the wrong guy if we are targeting Dim.... I completely agree with Trackd00r that we need to target one of those 3 lurkers.
Gunman, pablols or sufficiency... I would say the order that makes the most sense is the one I just listed... if we have a DT remaining, they should investigate sufficiency and hope hes just a regular mafia so we can set up a hit on the following day (assuming we get this next lynch correct)
My vote right now is for Gunman. I'm thinking that we are pointing fingers at each other while Mafia just slide into the background.... It seems like the remaining town are in a frenzy to try to stay alive and solve this... while the remaining people are not involved in this at all....
On March 08 2012 15:14 Maverick32x wrote: I really think we are pressuring the wrong guy if we are targeting Dim.... I completely agree with Trackd00r that we need to target one of those 3 lurkers.
Gunman, pablols or sufficiency... I would say the order that makes the most sense is the one I just listed... if we have a DT remaining, they should investigate sufficiency and hope hes just a regular mafia so we can set up a hit on the following day (assuming we get this next lynch correct)
My vote right now is for Gunman. I'm thinking that we are pointing fingers at each other while Mafia just slide into the background.... It seems like the remaining town are in a frenzy to try to stay alive and solve this... while the remaining people are not involved in this at all....
This is my assumption too. Of the three I'm thinking Gunman is the most likely candidate, but it's hard to say with them being so inactive in the late game. I have to look into this further before I vote.
I would say Sufficiency is the least likely to be mafia, but that's only if I can make the assumption that this early posts were to get reads on their reactions, and not just bad play. The posts I'm referencing:
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
To blubbdavid: How would killing a townie after he supports you be a risky tactic after the poor events of Day1? There was hardly any participation, the majority of players Day1 had low post counts, DimmuKlok and Mementoss were one of the most active. Would anyone have any good reason why Mementoss was targetted or any supsects? No, of course not, there was little information, and no reason to suspect DimmuKlok at this time. Do you really think that all mafia just try and lurk as much as possible? It's fairly obvious to go after lurkers, but it is not obvious to go after people who are the most active. Being active does not and should not give you the automatic feeling that someone is town, nor should it be a defense. Take a look at DimmuKlok's filter yourself and see how much useful information he really does post. It's not a lot, but hey he's active right?
By removing the only other active poster and having so much credibility, DimmuKlok dispels a lot of suspicion towards him, which is what Mafia would want! But even if you disregard how the Night kills may or may not have affected DimmuKlok, can you explain his behavior with Sufficiency, or the fact that he called me out and then retracted it with a "I guess my case wasn't that strong" when numerous people jumped to my defense? Why make a case against me at all then if you're not confident in your read.
He says my vote against him is a scare tactic, at least I'm willing to stand by my case and defend it until he posts a convincing defense besides one paragraph. In fact, I'm interested in seeing DimmuKlok's opinion on who we should vote for, considering you all believe he is still town.
I think that killing the most active townie while he supports you is a bad decision. Why would you kill the only player who sorta "trusts" you? As I said, I agree on your other points, especially on the interaction with Sufficiency, but the Kill policy just doesn't want to get in my head.
My vote is still on gunman right now. His fast push on rainmaker makes him suspicious.
Hey guys, I still haven't been able to read through the thread. As of now I don't feel confident enough to make any reads. I'll make sure to read through everything and vote today though, I hate midterms.
Sufficiency and gunman, now would be a good time to post.
On March 08 2012 23:12 Pablols wrote: Hey guys, I still haven't been able to read through the thread. As of now I don't feel confident enough to make any reads. I'll make sure to read through everything and vote today though, I hate midterms.
So what you're saying is you're busy, you have no reads, and it we shouldn't be surprised if we don't see any useful posts out of you up until the lynch. Got it. If you are town, this is why we're going to lose. If you're mafia, keep up the good work!
In the interest of still trying to win as town, if I drop my vote on DimmuKlok because no one will go along with it, should I be voting gunman and hoping for the best?
This is going to end either quite good, or horribly bad.
I'm voting for Gunman103. I already gave a read on him. At this point is pretty much him or a no-lynch...
Even if gunman, sufficiency or pablols flip town, their play was indeed a very deep punch for all us as town. I mean, if you are going to play a mafia game, please at least try to invest some time on it :/
Guys, don't you realize that Sufficiency went literally 2 days inactive, and no appears out of nowhere and cast his vote just 1 hour before the deadline?
Don't you believe the facts? Don't you find scummy that Sufficiency went in minutes before a lynch and just voted, ignoring completely any current discussion?
You are making no sense to me now. Neither Sufficiency is.
Mave, Willz, please. The evidence is right in front of your eyes. Change your vote
On March 09 2012 10:43 trackd00r wrote: Blubb, I'm completely serious.
Don't you believe the facts? Don't you find scummy that Sufficiency went in minutes before a lynch and just voted, ignoring completely any current discussion?
You are making no sense to me now. Neither Sufficiency is.
Mave, Willz, please. The evidence is right in front of your eyes. Change your vote
On March 09 2012 10:43 trackd00r wrote: Blubb, I'm completely serious.
Don't you believe the facts? Don't you find scummy that Sufficiency went in minutes before a lynch and just voted, ignoring completely any current discussion?
You are making no sense to me now. Neither Sufficiency is.
Mave, Willz, please. The evidence is right in front of your eyes. Change your vote
You believe your read on Gunman to be wrong?
Because if you don't, there is no reason for you to be pushing this right now. He can be lynched next. Did Sufficiency voting on Gunman last minute make Gunman innocent, or was Sufficiency making the only obvious choice?
Lord Zedd was sick of Rita's incompetence. She clearly was no match for the Power Rangers. He decided to give her one last chance to prove herself.
In an act of desperation, she summoned her secret weapon; the Green Ranger! Unfortunately for her, he never showed up. Back to the dumpster for gunman.
gunman103 the Rita Repulsa (Mafia goon) has been lynched. Pablols the Green Ranger (Miller) has been modkilled. Sucks to be Tommy.
While I'm glad this game is going to go on, it's just getting more and more frustrating to play with some people just barely contributing. I checked this thread this morning and had little activity until I checked an hour before deadline to see who to actually vote for. Then I check now and suddenly theres so many posts.
I have no other read on Sufficiency besides his lack of posting and his previous behavior, and it seems like he's our only concrete suspect at this time. Guess we'll see who gets killed off this Night...
It has been an interesting game thus far. I will definatly be watching how the game progresses. Anyway, glhf every one. Never give up, never surrender and all that good stuff. And give 'em hell for me you scummy badasses. Also, Can I still talk or look in the scum only chat?
On March 09 2012 12:47 gunman103 wrote: It has been an interesting game thus far. I will definatly be watching how the game progresses. Anyway, glhf every one. Never give up, never surrender and all that good stuff. And give 'em hell for me you scummy badasses. Also, Can I still talk or look in the scum only chat?
You may continue to observe, but communicating with your scum buddies regarding strategy is no longer allowed. Just a reminder, please limit death posts to a "gl hf". Thanks!
Now that we have a confirmed Mafia.. its really time to check those filters!! I'm going to organize this read based off who Gunman has talked about/accussed/supported.
5.) willz22912 Filter (replaced Tiystus)- Accused Tiystus (willz's double) pretty hard. Targeted him as #1..
Ok, thats it!! Wow, he really was a lurker!! haha
Since I don't want this to just be a 2 sentence post, lets look at Trackd00r a bit closer and see what we can dig up-
He does make a pretty big post against Gunman!! Which I think is really important.. given that this is before his major freakout/break near the end of the voting...
5.) willz22912 Filter (replaced Tiystus)- Targets early on... 6.) DimmuKlok Filter- Gets a little fiesty against Dim.. 7.) Sufficiency Filter- Says he thinks sufficiency is town.... Kinda starts to think that its a good idea to lynch sufficieny...But then immediatly switches to say he's 'not dangerous' Pretty wishy-washy.. 9.) Maverick32x Filter- kind of supportive early on? .. 12.) blubbdavid Filter(replaced beorn1)
Checking his filters also- he CONSISTENTLY targets Gunman... Why would he target mafia the whole time?
I'm going to give a couple general reads before the night ends.. in case I die!!
5.) willz22912 Filter Town. 6.) DimmuKlok Filter- Scum 7.) Sufficiency Filter- Scum 10.) trackd00r Filter- Town 12.) blubbdavid Filter- Town
Boom. That is what it is. I think this is the only way it can happen... Allow me to explain-
Willz- was targetting VERY early on by Gunman at a time when ANYONE could of been voted out. This would not of happened if Gunman and Willz were together...
Gunman NEVER accused any of the likely scum that I posted above. In fact he was supportive of Dim, and NEVER brought up Sufficiency despite claiming that he wanted to lynch lurkers, and sufficiency is the BIGGEST lurker of them all...
Dim- This one kind of breaks my heart because for a long time I really thought Dim was town.. but allow me to explain. Dim targetted Trackd00r at the end of this rant. That means that him and Trackd00r can not be mafia. Dim also votes randomly for Beorn for being a lurker... The only other person who voted for Beorn was... Sufficiency!! (Starting to see the connection?) He defends sufficiency- and NEVER accusses him.. Dim and Sufficiency have a connection.
Sufficiency- Just a lurker. The case against him in the things he says are weak.. its how others interact with him that is important.. though I suppose lurking is kind of evidence in itself...
Trackd00r- He had his freak out at the end which kind of paints him poorly.. HOWEVER- consider the lengthy post that he made before he freaked out that outlines a lot of reasons to target Gunman... I find this behavior suspicious.. but I don't think he was trying to change the vote.. but rather felt strongly that sufficiency was mafia (which I think he is correct in)
Blubb- Based off my above statement, If Blubb was mafia, and trackd00r was mafia, he would not of jumped on Trackd00r that much.... Leaning towards Dim, which means they are probably not the 'same' despite both being suspicious of Trackd00r....Targets sufficiency... Likely not with Sufficiency and Dim because they both voted against him (in a former life when he was Beorn)..
Either way, if I die tonight- those are my reads. and I feel VERY strongly about them. One of the biggest parts of this is that you can't really re-arrange Mafia in other way that makes sense... Check those filters and see how everyone matches up.
I never dropped my suspicion of him. I knew that he was going to be lynched, since already had reached a majority and nothing really could prevent to turn it back. Now, with a lynch which I was very sure about, I decided to check the reaction of mafia players when I bring up another candidate. The ninja vote that Sufficiency made just 1 hour before the deadline was the perfect situation to see if Mafia is bussing Gun, or just let him die without putting themselves in the spotlight.
Apparently, Maverick , Pablols and Willz seemed to not be around at that time, so it left me with Blubb and Dimu. I presented some evidence that might be tempting enough for them, If they were, to switch and provoke another no lynch, and therefore likely claim their victory at night. After checking out what reactions they did say, I switched my vote back to Gun just one minute before the deadline to avoid and tension or the threat of a massive scum vote switch.
As Gunman flipped scum, I can safely now say that either Blubbdavid or Dimmuklok is a confirmed townie. None of them tried to switch a vote in an almost 100% safe lynch to prevent the death of a scum mate.
This is mostly speculation, but in an analytic fashion:
Given A is town and B is Mafia:
1) If A attempted to switch to gunman, B would quickly switch as well.
2) If B tried to switch, A would analyse the situation or asked me further explanations before switching its vote.
Now, if both players were Mafia and switched, me and them would directly fall down into the spotlight and one of us would be a totally potential lynch candidate day 4. And then they would easily turn against me and push out the mislynch. This case is very unlikely to happen, since chances to getting mafia lynched were 2/3, very risky IMO. But given situation (1), this is way more easier to pull off, since here is 2 town / 1 scum.
But let's get back to what actually happen. None of the players switched. Why? Because one of them doing so would make so obvious that he was protecting his scum mate. In the other hand, I don't see the point why if they both were mafia, didn't prevent the scum lynch, since together that was way less riskier and more justifiable to a certain degree.
Imagine both Dim and Blubb were scum. They were obviously coordinating their moves and waiting for the deadline with high nerves. It's safe to assume they were checking the voting thread for all that time. Wouldn't the completely Sufficiency vote caught their attention and see that as a good chance to save Gum? (please note: Even if sufficiency is scum or town, all would have ended in a no lynch if switched).
Now imagine of them as Scum. Risky move to make? Hell yes. I took the initiative and checked what moves they show, to see if they continue disguising themselves as townies or go ahead and make the big push to win.
That's some of the analysis and predictions I could make about their behavior. One of them is town, the other, scum.
Anyways, Sufficiency play is one of the most intriguing I've ever seen in my time at TL mafia.
I'll give my analysis and more information later into the night so my actions are not an influence to mafia's next target.
I just looked through the filters on Dim again.. the only person that he never accused out of the remainders is Sufficiency and I guess me... but I find the sufficiency the weirdest because he was such a lurker and so many people were targetting him... when in fact Dim was defending him!!! I think we got this one :D
On March 10 2012 04:01 Maverick32x wrote: I just looked through the filters on Dim again.. the only person that he never accused out of the remainders is Sufficiency and I guess me... but I find the sufficiency the weirdest because he was such a lurker and so many people were targetting him... when in fact Dim was defending him!!! I think we got this one :D
I am lurking because I find this game way too time-consuming now than what I initially thought it would take -- furthermore I am really busy these days.
I tried to ask to have me replaced, but according to the mod there are many people in front of me who wants to be replaced. That's why I stayed...
My thoughts to trackdoor: First of, very clever. Luring scum by making fake votes, and then that kind of prisoners dilemma. On the other hand, you were kinda lucky that only Dimmu and me were on at that time.
To Sufficieny's behaviour I have to say that it happens often that someone just bandwagons in the last second. Imagine Suff would have voted for someone other than gunman, then we would be ripping his ass now. Despite that, I am willing to lynch Suff this day.
What do you think about my reads Blubb? I honestly don't see it going any other way than this- so I'm interested to hear who Dim and sufficiency think are the mafia.. because I'm 99.9% sure it is them!
I will comment your read soon Mav. To my last post I just want to say that I completely forgot the option that trackdoor himself could be scum. I was pretty sucked in by his theory. Now I have to revise my reads.
You still leave a 0.01% chance that YOU could be scum.
Boom. That is what it is. I think this is the only way it can happen... Allow me to explain-
Willz- was targetting VERY early on by Gunman at a time when ANYONE could of been voted out. This would not of happened if Gunman and Willz were together...
Gunman NEVER accused any of the likely scum that I posted above. In fact he was supportive of Dim, and NEVER brought up Sufficiency despite claiming that he wanted to lynch lurkers, and sufficiency is the BIGGEST lurker of them all...
I honestly don't see where willz pointed anything out about gunman. He followed the gunman train with this post:
On March 09 2012 09:09 willz22912 wrote: In the interest of still trying to win as town, if I drop my vote on DimmuKlok because no one will go along with it, should I be voting gunman and hoping for the best?
If you ctrl+f his filter you see him exactly three times saying gunman and almost none of them says anything against gunman. Just sayin Whereas I like willz case on Dimmu.
Dim- This one kind of breaks my heart because for a long time I really thought Dim was town.. but allow me to explain. Dim targetted Trackd00r at the end of this rant. That means that him and Trackd00r can not be mafia. Dim also votes randomly for Beorn for being a lurker... The only other person who voted for Beorn was... Sufficiency!! (Starting to see the connection?) He defends sufficiency- and NEVER accusses him.. Dim and Sufficiency have a connection.
He has been on my watchlist since early. Yes, Dimmu targeted trackdoor after that one made accusations against Suff. But rightly so, I have done this too because trackdoors accusations were really weird. And you are right that he defends Suff. But this will only make much sense if Suff is confirmed scum. We still don't know yet, altough Suff is on the top of the priority list. And I really like (read: don't like) the case Dimmu and Suff made against my predecessor, only because he was a lurker. And last, please notice the incredible amount of fluff in his posts.
Sufficiency- Just a lurker. The case against him in the things he says are weak.. its how others interact with him that is important.. though I suppose lurking is kind of evidence in itself...
Originally I thought he was a bad townie, now I think he is just bad scum. And he said he has lost interest in the game. Don't know how to interpret this. He isn't very useful and is hindering even if he were town.
Trackd00r- He had his freak out at the end which kind of paints him poorly.. HOWEVER- consider the lengthy post that he made before he freaked out that outlines a lot of reasons to target Gunman... I find this behavior suspicious.. but I don't think he was trying to change the vote.. but rather felt strongly that sufficiency was mafia (which I think he is correct in)
Ha, I like his case on me and Dimmu. It's real detective work. Or he could be scum, trying to convice some innocent townies to change their vote to Suff, then make his scum comrades change the vote in the last second and so avoiding a lynch on gun. But seeing the amount he put into his theory, I see this as unlikely. Still possible, but unlikely.
Blubb- Based off my above statement, If Blubb was mafia, and trackd00r was mafia, he would not of jumped on Trackd00r that much.... Leaning towards Dim, which means they are probably not the 'same' despite both being suspicious of Trackd00r....Targets sufficiency... Likely not with Sufficiency and Dim because they both voted against him (in a former life when he was Beorn)..
Fully agree.
tldr, I am against Suff and Dimmu.
And I almost forgot: My read on Mav: Mav's stance on gunman: Finds him wishy washy, but gets more and more convinced that gunman could be scum. Even puts the scum read on gunman higher than his suspicions against Dimmu. What can I say more, I still say that Mav is the towniest of us all. But that doesn't mean that we should let us convince us from him to much.
I haven't gotten a chance to look over what we learned from gunmans lynch. All I've done so far is read the newest posts. Trackd00r, I understand your post, and was pretty much what I was expecting. That move at the end could only have been 2 things, what you explained, or you were mafia and you tried to get everyone's vote off of your teammate last second and win the game.
Given that you initially brought up Gunman, I figured it was what you said. That's why I didn't FoS you or vote. I was only pointing out that if you thought that saying sorry was the only explanation that was needed for those actions, you were wrong.
The problem with your plan is that it almost costed us the game. Even with nearly 15mins left in voting, you were still trying to get everyone to change their vote, and it wasn't until there was 1 min left in the voting that you said you were going to go back to Gunman. This is what was the most suspicous to me, and was why I initially called you out.
About your speculation at the end, you forgot the possibility that we are both town. Did you just forget that it's possible you tried to pull that shit with 2 towns in the thread? If that were the case, it would have gone down how it did. You try to purpose your idea, and we shoot it down because it's a terrible idea.
Please vote for me if you think I'm mafia. If you're all willing to throw the game away on such a stupid idea, then I'm not going to put in the effort to help this town.
I really want to hear what sufficiency has to say on all this!! For a guy that posts everyday on other forums, he rarely posts in this thread... Also- if we have a DT, I'd say DON'T investigate Dim... he is likely the godfather if he is mafia... he would of been the only mafia that is outspoken.....
I'll throw in my opinions on everyone as well in case I get killed off this Night phase as well:
Myself: I made a poor case of defending OtoshimonoU, I overly accused DimmuKlok, and I haven't contributed to this thread much targetting any other player. My vote on gunman was bandwagoning 100%, I wanted to push DimmuKlok but could not convince the majority, and I did not disagree with the read on gunman and I didn't want to waste my vote. Objectively, I can say that this is suspicious behavior and warrants more scrutiny, I can only hope that you can see that it's more poor town play than Mafia behavior, but I freely state that I should be a valid suspect for a Day4 lynch.
Sufficiency: Probably mafia. You can see through this posts that he hasn't put that much effort. He says that playing Mafia is too time consuming, and personally I agree with that, but there is no other read to make other than either really poor town play or scum, but we can't afford a mis-lynch, so this gets tricky.
DimmuKlok: Possible suspect. I made a case against him earlier using his interaction with Sufficiency as one of my key points. I honestly don't know about him now. If he was Mafia, he definitely bus'd gunman so that we would just finish ourselves off with a mis-lynch. However, he could just be town and I misread him, I really can't say and as stated, we can't afford a mis-lynch so we have to be really sure.
Maverick23: Probably town. One of the more active posters, but a lot of his posts reading through filter were pretty useless. He was also one of the ones who tunneled really hard on OtoshimonoU, so I was initially very concerned and kept him in mind as a possible suspect. Still, looking through his behavior throughout the game, the only thing I can really accuse him of using his own words is being a too "bloodthirsty" townie. He made several good points on other people like besides OtoshimonoU that I do agree wit
trackd00r: Neutral, possible suspect. The stunt you pulled last minute was pretty annoying to me to be honest. I was trying to keep track of the thread's activity in between doing schoolwork, and was lurking the thread for a good couple of hours to keep up to date on any shenanagins. Then I wasn't on the computer close to the deadline and you made your switch case. This really set off my suspicions, but if you say it was a bait tactic, I'll have to take your word for it.
I feel like your analysis of Mafia's possible options to be pretty spot on, but I think you're discounting the fact that vote was a mis-lynch = town lose situation. In that case, I think gunman was not worth saving if he was such a strong suspect for everyone, and a radical vote change to save him would be too obvious for his teammates . All Mafia need to do at this point is lie low and drive us to a mis-lynch. So your proposal was neat, but it was highly doubtful they were going to take the bait... but if you were Mafia it would give you the opportunity to show town goodwill while still bussing gunman103, so now you're a suspect to me, or I just read everything in a too suspicious doublethink measure (been reading 1984 for class ;p)
blubbdavid: Probably town. Defended me along with Sbrubbles against DimmuKlok's case. Don't know what else to make about that behavior when he could have easily supported DimmuKlok and made me a possible lynch candidate for Day3. He also threw valid holes in my counter-case against DimmuKlok, so he isn't a blind bandwagoner, even though he did end up "liking my case" a lot. I can't read this as anything besides town behavior towards me and in general.
I'm assuming Sufficiency is one of the mafia that we have left. I'm less confident with going with someone else at the time.
Maverick, why do you suspect me of being mafia?
On March 10 2012 01:58 Maverick32x wrote: Dim- This one kind of breaks my heart because for a long time I really thought Dim was town.. but allow me to explain. Dim targetted Trackd00r at the end of this rant. That means that him and Trackd00r can not be mafia. Dim also votes randomly for Beorn for being a lurker... The only other person who voted for Beorn was... Sufficiency!! (Starting to see the connection?) He defends sufficiency- and NEVER accusses him.. Dim and Sufficiency have a connection.
Read it, and dismantled it. Multiple times might I add when it comes to the whole beorn thing. You say I defended Sufficiency, but that's not true at all. I've done nothing but try to get information out of that guy, but it's completely useless since he's given up on the game. You people keep trying to make a connection to me and Sufficiency and I'm taking note of it.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote: My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
It's past 4 in the morning here so I'm going to wait to post who I think we should lynch for in the morning. What I do want to post now is who is slipping underneath the radar... Rainmaker has posted twice so far. In his last post he said he had to head to class and that he would post his later on, which he never did. Beorn has only had one post thus far in which he agrees with the general consensus on random lynches.
Early on you pick out two people.. 1 of which is confirmed town, the other though lost interest in the game, his replacement I'm thinking is also town.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
Targeting the lurker, seems safe... however what about sufficiency?!
On March 03 2012 03:33 Rainmaker5 wrote: Ok I'm going to draft up a list and announce my vote real quick. this formatiting will be a bit wonky but I don't have time to really make shit pretty right now.
going to link post #s so I don't have to explain where I'm getting information
Otoshi~~~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011 Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch.
Gunman Don't really have a read on him b/c he doesn't really seem sure of his own opinion would like to hear more from him but I can't really say that FoSing currently
Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good
Mav is seems pretty opposed to a random lynch, not to much to say after that
Beorn doesn't really seem to have an opinion- no read
So I don't really like Pablos's style, but he cleaned up towards the end. Mav and Memtoss are off my radar currenly because even if they're scum they're encouraging posts and moving forward that's going to hurt them. Suff is kinda sketchy- takes attention away from his rampant fingering by putting it on people who didn't react.
But I really feel the guy who's generating the most noise is definitely OtoshimonoU. He feels really scummy and even if he's jsut playing poorly is the type of guy that real scum can use to keep deflecting attention.
Which I guess is something you can suspect me of doing lol
Anyway that's my vote and my analysis. Wish me luck on my Midterm!
The only useful thing about this post is your opinion on OtoshimonoU. There is no point in bringing up the names of people that are not on our current suspect list and then not even accuse them of anything. That kind of information is just taking up space. You haven't posted much up until now and that post is looking pretty suspicious to me...
##FoS: Rainmaker5
Again, confirmed townie.
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
@Sufficiency- Good posts!! I'm really glad to hear from you!! That being said, I truly am suspecting the following people as the most likely to be mafia at this point-
Sufficiency- Its not so much the things you said, but the reactions that I've been gathering from the bottom two. Obviously I suspected you from the start due to your poor posting. But it seems like a lot of the other people were eager to let you get by as "poor town", and you weren't confronted at all. Then all of a sudden you post that you want to get rid of the lurker, and Dim hopes right on board. You've established zero credability in this thread, if anything you were seen as a non-helpful, yet for some reason you're getting bandwagon support.....
Dim- You've spent a lot of time defending Mementoss, and bandwagoned with Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote:
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads. Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
I think this is highly suspicous behavior. Both players have bounced off each other and defended each other's actions to establish credability.
Mementos:
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Creating excuses for Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him.
You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia.
On March 03 2012 02:57 Mementoss wrote:
@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town.
Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well
On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote: Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r.
Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information.
My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red]
Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes.
All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia...
So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded.
Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time.
Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other.
On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more.
Kind of a strange post.. seemingly distancing yourself from sufficiency since you're starting to worry that people are connecting you... You suspect Beorn of lurking and being scum.. but again.. no mention of sufficiency...
On March 03 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote: I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency. I can't tell if he's smart and trying to get reactions out of people with his posts, or one of the many other things I've considered. If people are interested I can make a more detailed case on my opinion of him, but even I'm not too confident in my read on him.
This NEVER happens.
On March 05 2012 08:27 DimmuKlok wrote: GG Mementoss, it's been fun.
OtoshimonoU, what is your read on Sufficiency? Also, who is your top scum read right now and why?
It honestly sounds like you're trying to figure out who's the biggest threat in the town...
On March 07 2012 00:46 blubbdavid wrote: Oh shoot, didn't think about the possibility of a Godfather. Dimmu's now randomly pointed against Willz, that's confusing. Could you please elaborate more why Willz looks suspicious?
And I feel too that a DT case against Rain would be wasted. Even if Rain returned town, how would it be helpful? "Hey look guys, we have a townie here, but one who doesn't contibute."
I don't see how a DT case on Rain is wasted, or even less effective than a DT case on anyone else. Everyone has the same chance of being mafia, statistically, and Rain is the most likely to come up as Mafia in my opinion. If you investigate anyone and they turn up town, what does that tell you? Nothing, because it could be wrong, and even if it's right then you just have a confirmed town player who will continue to do what they did before that.
My opinion of Willz is after this.
Possibly directing the DT towards a town?
On March 07 2012 03:03 DimmuKlok wrote: Why I called out Willz:
On March 04 2012 09:11 willz22912 wrote: For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new).
On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote: My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?...
...Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post.
On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote: Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.
He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this:
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote: Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of...
On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote: Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information.
On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote: I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get.
I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on.
This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up.
After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either.
Why you called out Willz- to protect Sufficiency? Pretty much switching the pressure..
On March 08 2012 15:14 Maverick32x wrote: I really think we are pressuring the wrong guy if we are targeting Dim.... I completely agree with Trackd00r that we need to target one of those 3 lurkers.
Gunman, pablols or sufficiency... I would say the order that makes the most sense is the one I just listed... if we have a DT remaining, they should investigate sufficiency and hope hes just a regular mafia so we can set up a hit on the following day (assuming we get this next lynch correct)
My vote right now is for Gunman. I'm thinking that we are pointing fingers at each other while Mafia just slide into the background.... It seems like the remaining town are in a frenzy to try to stay alive and solve this... while the remaining people are not involved in this at all....
This is my assumption too. Of the three I'm thinking Gunman is the most likely candidate, but it's hard to say with them being so inactive in the late game. I have to look into this further before I vote.
I would say Sufficiency is the least likely to be mafia, but that's only if I can make the assumption that this early posts were to get reads on their reactions, and not just bad play. The posts I'm referencing:
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103?
gutty feelings.
You defend sufficiency some more....
On March 09 2012 09:46 DimmuKlok wrote: I went with Gunman. Obviously it's our only option at this point.
Defending would be too obvious.....
SO there are a couple examples of the 'connection'... I'm all for going for sufficiency first though.. so you still got time~
Lastly, who could the other 2 mafia be if not Sufficiency and Dim? Really try to answer that, and look at the connection between confirmed town and the 1 mafia that we have left.... There is a pattern of communication here- everyone left here had sufficiency in their sights at some point in the game... except Dim....
I see that I confused a lot of people here with my 'investigation' in a way.
I would like to apologize that I was an obstacle to town. I messed up with the timings and I admit it was too risky with my intentions, plus at any moment I could just had my internet not working by the time of the deadline and screw up everything, who knows...
But I'll admit that some information might be useful in the future.
@ Dimmuklok:
On March 10 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote: Please vote for me if you think I'm mafia. If you're all willing to throw the game away on such a stupid idea, then I'm not going to put in the effort to help this town.
Hey, If you are actually town, don't drop the towel now. Your last post seems like you are just interesting or unwilling to help. I don't know if you directed this to all of us or just me, but this is the worst time where you could surrender.
@Willz: So you say that blubb leans town because he defended you and evaluated your case against Dimmu. What about his behavior towards everyone in general?
He came into this thread as a replacement and with some strong analysis against Sufficiency and OtoshimonoU. As we've seen Oto flipped green, making this suspect now. Other than that, he hasn't posted that much except in my defense. He was one of the ones who started the vote against gunman, and was the one I listened to after I asked who to vote for Day3. I don't have a good read on him other than how he's interacted with me, and pointing me towards gunman seems like town behavior.
I apologize but this is my first game and I came in as a replacement. I also have been getting busier with school so I would like to wrap this up win or lose pretty fast, and I just don't have time to really read over every single world everyones ever said. I have played pretty poorly so far in my own opinion and I can't really offer much in the way of evidence against anyone except for the case that I made against DimmuKlok which is too risky to pursue until we see how Sufficiency flips.
In summary as well, I'm most likely going to vote Sufficiency Day4 unless major information is obtained on who gets killed this night that gives us a better suspect.
Sigh, I should have proofread instead of just blindly posting. In clarification, blubbdavid hasn't posted that much in terms of analysis except for what I originally said and my defense, the rest of his posts are pretty short responses. In this sense, I suppose he's a little suspicious, but I don't have enough to go on to suddenly make him the top suspect over anyone else. Sorry.
This is a lot of text, but that's because I responded to every part of Mavericks post. It's crucial that you read it in it's entirety. It became painfully obvious to me that Maverick was Mafia by the end of the post.
On March 10 2012 08:20 Maverick32x wrote: Sure, I'll break down all my reasoning.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote: My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
It's past 4 in the morning here so I'm going to wait to post who I think we should lynch for in the morning. What I do want to post now is who is slipping underneath the radar... Rainmaker has posted twice so far. In his last post he said he had to head to class and that he would post his later on, which he never did. Beorn has only had one post thus far in which he agrees with the general consensus on random lynches.
Early on you pick out two people.. 1 of which is confirmed town, the other though lost interest in the game, his replacement I'm thinking is also town.
Your first reason for me being mafia, is me defending 2 players that we later found out ended up being the correct decision...
On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103?
gutty feelings.
Fair enough... I was hoping it was something a little more elaborate, but ok.
Despite this complete dodge/slap in the face. You seem okay with taking this as answer.
I seem ok with the answer... This is your second reason for me being mafia...
I've already stated that was one of my multiple attempts at getting more info out of Sufficiency. My reaction and that face at the end was the face of me coming the realization that Sufficiency wasn't a mastermind, just someone who didn't want to put time into this thread.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
Targeting the lurker, seems safe... however what about sufficiency?!
What about him? Am I supposed to be mentioning Sufficiency in all my posts? I've explained multiple times that post was to get Beorn out of hiding and had nothing to do with Sufficiency. Sufficiency just randomly accused beorn, and I took that opportunity to try and get him to start posting.
On March 03 2012 03:33 Rainmaker5 wrote: Ok I'm going to draft up a list and announce my vote real quick. this formatiting will be a bit wonky but I don't have time to really make shit pretty right now.
going to link post #s so I don't have to explain where I'm getting information
Otoshi~~~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011 Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch.
Gunman Don't really have a read on him b/c he doesn't really seem sure of his own opinion would like to hear more from him but I can't really say that FoSing currently
Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good
Mav is seems pretty opposed to a random lynch, not to much to say after that
Beorn doesn't really seem to have an opinion- no read
So I don't really like Pablos's style, but he cleaned up towards the end. Mav and Memtoss are off my radar currenly because even if they're scum they're encouraging posts and moving forward that's going to hurt them. Suff is kinda sketchy- takes attention away from his rampant fingering by putting it on people who didn't react.
But I really feel the guy who's generating the most noise is definitely OtoshimonoU. He feels really scummy and even if he's jsut playing poorly is the type of guy that real scum can use to keep deflecting attention.
Which I guess is something you can suspect me of doing lol
Anyway that's my vote and my analysis. Wish me luck on my Midterm!
The only useful thing about this post is your opinion on OtoshimonoU. There is no point in bringing up the names of people that are not on our current suspect list and then not even accuse them of anything. That kind of information is just taking up space. You haven't posted much up until now and that post is looking pretty suspicious to me...
##FoS: Rainmaker5
Again, confirmed townie.
Him being a confirmed townie didn't make that post any more useful. I was correct in my suspicion of him. He ended up just being an inactive townie who got mod killed, instead of a mafia unwilling to contribute like I suspected.
There is no need for this to be included in your case against me. The fact that it was included should be looked upon as suspicious.
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
Still nothing on sufficiency...
Why would there be anything on Sufficiency? This was posted right after I proposed a lynch on Beorn with Sufficiency! The reason for the post was to pressure Beorn, which I explained here:
Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time.
Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other.
On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more.
You of all people should know this, considering this post was directed at you. Once again, highly suspicious that this made it into your case on me.
@Sufficiency- Good posts!! I'm really glad to hear from you!! That being said, I truly am suspecting the following people as the most likely to be mafia at this point-
Sufficiency- Its not so much the things you said, but the reactions that I've been gathering from the bottom two. Obviously I suspected you from the start due to your poor posting. But it seems like a lot of the other people were eager to let you get by as "poor town", and you weren't confronted at all. Then all of a sudden you post that you want to get rid of the lurker, and Dim hopes right on board. You've established zero credability in this thread, if anything you were seen as a non-helpful, yet for some reason you're getting bandwagon support.....
Dim- You've spent a lot of time defending Mementoss, and bandwagoned with Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote:
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads. Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
I think this is highly suspicous behavior. Both players have bounced off each other and defended each other's actions to establish credability.
Mementos:
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Creating excuses for Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him.
You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia.
On March 03 2012 02:57 Mementoss wrote:
@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town.
Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well
On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote: Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r.
Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information.
My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red]
Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes.
All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia...
So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded.
Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time.
Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other.
On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more.
Kind of a strange post.. seemingly distancing yourself from sufficiency since you're starting to worry that people are connecting you... You suspect Beorn of lurking and being scum.. but again.. no mention of sufficiency...
Um, what? This is the post that was describing my bandwagoning with Sufficiency and our so called "connection" you claim we have. "No mention of Sufficiency", not sure what you mean by this. There is no reason for me to be randomly accusing him in that post.
On March 03 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote: I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency. I can't tell if he's smart and trying to get reactions out of people with his posts, or one of the many other things I've considered. If people are interested I can make a more detailed case on my opinion of him, but even I'm not too confident in my read on him.
This NEVER happens.
Yes, actually it did. Nobody asked for it until willz, and when he did I answered his question about beorn, along with my read on Sufficiency in the next post. As I stated above, because of his inactivity it was hard to have a good case on him:
On March 08 2012 15:14 Maverick32x wrote: I really think we are pressuring the wrong guy if we are targeting Dim.... I completely agree with Trackd00r that we need to target one of those 3 lurkers.
Gunman, pablols or sufficiency... I would say the order that makes the most sense is the one I just listed... if we have a DT remaining, they should investigate sufficiency and hope hes just a regular mafia so we can set up a hit on the following day (assuming we get this next lynch correct)
My vote right now is for Gunman. I'm thinking that we are pointing fingers at each other while Mafia just slide into the background.... It seems like the remaining town are in a frenzy to try to stay alive and solve this... while the remaining people are not involved in this at all....
This is my assumption too. Of the three I'm thinking Gunman is the most likely candidate, but it's hard to say with them being so inactive in the late game. I have to look into this further before I vote.
I would say Sufficiency is the least likely to be mafia, but that's only if I can make the assumption that this early posts were to get reads on their reactions, and not just bad play. The posts I'm referencing:
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
On March 05 2012 08:27 DimmuKlok wrote: GG Mementoss, it's been fun.
OtoshimonoU, what is your read on Sufficiency? Also, who is your top scum read right now and why?
It honestly sounds like you're trying to figure out who's the biggest threat in the town...
That post is simply me trying to get more information out of Oto. How you came to that conclusion and felt it was worth including in your list of reasons I'm mafia, is beyond me.
On March 07 2012 00:46 blubbdavid wrote: Oh shoot, didn't think about the possibility of a Godfather. Dimmu's now randomly pointed against Willz, that's confusing. Could you please elaborate more why Willz looks suspicious?
And I feel too that a DT case against Rain would be wasted. Even if Rain returned town, how would it be helpful? "Hey look guys, we have a townie here, but one who doesn't contibute."
I don't see how a DT case on Rain is wasted, or even less effective than a DT case on anyone else. Everyone has the same chance of being mafia, statistically, and Rain is the most likely to come up as Mafia in my opinion. If you investigate anyone and they turn up town, what does that tell you? Nothing, because it could be wrong, and even if it's right then you just have a confirmed town player who will continue to do what they did before that.
My opinion of Willz is after this.
Possibly directing the DT towards a town?
If I was mafia, why would I care if a DT case went down on Rain? We now know he was a inactive towny, which I would have known at the time if i was mafia. Another massive slip Maverick.
On March 07 2012 03:03 DimmuKlok wrote: Why I called out Willz:
On March 04 2012 09:11 willz22912 wrote: For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new).
On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote: My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?...
...Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post.
On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote: Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.
He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this:
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote: Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of...
On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote: Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information.
On March 06 2012 09:22 willz22912 wrote:
On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote: I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get.
I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on.
This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up.
After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either.
Why you called out Willz- to protect Sufficiency? Pretty much switching the pressure..
Funny you say that now. You initial response was "Dim... I like that post.. a lot... ". Sounds like a lot of bandwagoning to me. It's obvious you're making wild assumptions.
On March 08 2012 15:14 Maverick32x wrote: I really think we are pressuring the wrong guy if we are targeting Dim.... I completely agree with Trackd00r that we need to target one of those 3 lurkers.
Gunman, pablols or sufficiency... I would say the order that makes the most sense is the one I just listed... if we have a DT remaining, they should investigate sufficiency and hope hes just a regular mafia so we can set up a hit on the following day (assuming we get this next lynch correct)
My vote right now is for Gunman. I'm thinking that we are pointing fingers at each other while Mafia just slide into the background.... It seems like the remaining town are in a frenzy to try to stay alive and solve this... while the remaining people are not involved in this at all....
This is my assumption too. Of the three I'm thinking Gunman is the most likely candidate, but it's hard to say with them being so inactive in the late game. I have to look into this further before I vote.
I would say Sufficiency is the least likely to be mafia, but that's only if I can make the assumption that this early posts were to get reads on their reactions, and not just bad play. The posts I'm referencing:
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
Later, I tried to confirm which it was, and sadly his answer was:
On March 02 2012 20:18 Sufficiency wrote:
On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103?
gutty feelings.
You defend sufficiency some more....
That was not a defense of Sufficiency. I was giving my read on him at the time and I even said in the post that I would only consider him town if his early posts were to generate reactions and responses, which he never said was the case.
On March 09 2012 09:46 DimmuKlok wrote: I went with Gunman. Obviously it's our only option at this point.
Defending would be too obvious.....
Once again you're just making the assumption I'm mafia. Saying "defending would be too obvious" isn't going to prove anything. How is this a reason I'm mafia?
On March 10 2012 08:20 Maverick32x wrote: SO there are a couple examples of the 'connection'... I'm all for going for sufficiency first though.. so you still got time~
Lastly, who could the other 2 mafia be if not Sufficiency and Dim? Really try to answer that, and look at the connection between confirmed town and the 1 mafia that we have left.... There is a pattern of communication here- everyone left here had sufficiency in their sights at some point in the game... except Dim....
How bout you, buddy? With how many slips you made in that post, it's obvious. I urge everyone to go through Mavericks filter and see for yourself.
When I say read it in it's entirety, I mean read the post maverick is quoting, as well as my response. It's crucial to see what he was commenting about when I responded to him.
Finally!! I've been waiting for someone to FoS me!!! I've been eager to step up to this challenge and prove my innocence to everyone. I dont know if this is one of those "I'm targeting you, so you're targeting me sort of things" but if you truly are town I find it hard to believe that you would try to turn this to me- as opposed to trying to side with me and convince me- as opposed to trying to get me voted out.
But okay- flip through my filters. I realize that I've made some bad calls (oto specifically), and I accused people early on to try to get some motion going. But I want you guys to take note of the fact that I spared no one in my critical analysis of every single person in here. I didn't do it to make you guys angry- I did it to get people thinking and to also think critically about what I was saying. I came into this game not trusting anyone and assuming everyone is mafia- so I would read through every post and look for the connections....
1) I just want to remind everyone that there were accusations that I was 'teaming up' with Mementoss.. a confirmed townie. 2) I also initiated the vote on the ONLY mafia that we have found so far. 3) I've been a constant presence in all of these threads in order to target mafia- and to win.
@Dim- your only 'proof' of me being mafia is the fact that I'm targeting you right now based off of what I've written. You're not my target on this next vote so don't worry... I'm aiming for sufficiency... (but you will be next)
Actually, all of your proof now that I re-read it is empty and from the assumption that I'm somehow making up all of this information?
I'd also love to hear who you think the second mafia is if you think I am one also- who have I teamed up?
I realize that a lot of you guys have taken for granted the fact that someone who posts a lot and is active in finding mafia is actually town and not trying to trick you. I appreciate your faith and trust in me- and I look forwards to seeing this through till the end...
If you're going to target someone, it only makes sense to do this in pairs... We need to look at the rest of this game from a more global perspective.. if we try to just target ONE person... we will be guessing....
If you want to convince me, you're going to have to do better than that.
1. Accusations that you and Mementoss were teaming up means nothing. Mementoss himself said that I should be a confirmed towny from there on. Also means nothing.
2. Blubbdavid was the first person to vote for gunman, not you.
3. That's your opinion.
Looking forward to you actually addressing my post in the future, Maverick.
Ok, I think that's enough lurking for everyone. It seems like everyone didn't want to post their opinion on Maverick before the night came. Understandable, but we need to begin discussion again. If you look at my counter post against Maverick, it should be pretty easy to see that he is one of the remaining mafia.
I need to hear what everyone thought about my post. Asap, because I don't want to waste time.
You're dodging... Im voting sufficiency and you're attacking me... I think you're worried that I've figured out your Mafia team and youre freaking out...
Think globally... Who have I worked with out of the remainders? What indicates my connection to them as mafia?
You think I'm mafia and I'm freaking out... You think that explains my case against you? Did you even read it? That response alone should convince people of your true alignment.
Leaving out the other mafia doesn't have anything to do with my case on you. They'll have their own case soon enough.
So you're protecting sufficiency again? I'm sensing a pattern here..
I'm interested to hear everyone else on this... We are in a lynch or lose situation and dim wants to take a gamble on one of the most pro town players in this game who has identified the remaining Mafia... Read the filters and you'll reach the same conclusion I have...
I see we are now on opposites dim.. it will be sad if you're town... But it's looking less and less likely...
On March 11 2012 11:45 DimmuKlok wrote: Ok, I think that's enough lurking for everyone. It seems like everyone didn't want to post their opinion on Maverick before the night came. Understandable, but we need to begin discussion again. If you look at my counter post against Maverick, it should be pretty easy to see that he is one of the remaining mafia.
I need to hear what everyone thought about my post. Asap, because I don't want to waste time.
Why are you rushing a vote on Maverick before Sufficiency? We have 48 hours. What time are we wasting? You bring up some interesting points yes, but why push this before someone we all agree on?
Do you still agree that Sufficiency is Mafia? If so, both of you do agree with that, so one of you is lying and willing to bus your last teammate, which is still a win for town.
Sufficiency first, and then we smoke out the last member. Otherwise this is pretty damning evidence against you DimmuKlok.
On March 11 2012 12:44 Maverick32x wrote: So you're protecting sufficiency again? I'm sensing a pattern here..
I'm interested to hear everyone else on this... We are in a lynch or lose situation and dim wants to take a gamble on one of the most pro town players in this game who has identified the remaining Mafia... Read the filters and you'll reach the same conclusion I have...
I see we are now on opposites dim.. it will be sad if you're town... But it's looking less and less likely...
Just read this post people... Defending Sufficiency, again? Haven't I already gone over this? Oh yea, you didn't read that. Or you did and you're still trying to push your dead case.
"dim wants to take a game on one of the most pro town players in this game who has identified the remaining mafia"
Who has said this guy is the most pro town player? Nobody. Identified the remaining mafia? You'd like us to think you have wouldn't you? Sufficiency isn't getting lynched. The fact that you're trying to push it will be the death of you. The only case on him is that he refuses to put in the time needed to play this game. We had the same read on the other players like that, and they were all town.
On March 11 2012 11:45 DimmuKlok wrote: Ok, I think that's enough lurking for everyone. It seems like everyone didn't want to post their opinion on Maverick before the night came. Understandable, but we need to begin discussion again. If you look at my counter post against Maverick, it should be pretty easy to see that he is one of the remaining mafia.
I need to hear what everyone thought about my post. Asap, because I don't want to waste time.
Why are you rushing a vote on Maverick before Sufficiency? We have 48 hours. What time are we wasting? You bring up some interesting points yes, but why push this before someone we all agree on?
Do you still agree that Sufficiency is Mafia? If so, both of you do agree with that, so one of you is lying and willing to bus your last teammate, which is still a win for town.
Sufficiency first, and then we smoke out the last member. Otherwise this is pretty damning evidence against you DimmuKlok.
On March 11 2012 11:45 DimmuKlok wrote: Ok, I think that's enough lurking for everyone. It seems like everyone didn't want to post their opinion on Maverick before the night came. Understandable, but we need to begin discussion again. If you look at my counter post against Maverick, it should be pretty easy to see that he is one of the remaining mafia.
I need to hear what everyone thought about my post. Asap, because I don't want to waste time.
Why are you rushing a vote on Maverick before Sufficiency? We have 48 hours. What time are we wasting? You bring up some interesting points yes, but why push this before someone we all agree on?
Do you still agree that Sufficiency is Mafia? If so, both of you do agree with that, so one of you is lying and willing to bus your last teammate, which is still a win for town.
Sufficiency first, and then we smoke out the last member. Otherwise this is pretty damning evidence against you DimmuKlok.
Too easy. Blubb, you can come out now.
Yes, in case you were wondering, that is me saying willz is the other mafia member.
So you're going to say that Willz.. the guy who tried to PREVENT an Oto lynch is going to be the next Mafia player?
Ha. That's awesome Dim.... So I guess the deciding vote will be Blubb then?
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote: Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
Willz clearly DOESN'T want to vote for Oto.. yet he will go with so that we get a lynch.. He was the only person who stepped up and tried to prevent this from happening... Is that a Mafia agenda?
I guess this is your attempt at targeting the only remaining person who has targeted you as well?
Lol, yep, and you're still unable to defend yourself. Even your best defense for Willz is that he defended Oto in one post, who he had voted prior to that post, and ultimately went with in the end. I wonder why it's so hard to come up with a sold defense for either of you...
On March 11 2012 11:45 DimmuKlok wrote: Ok, I think that's enough lurking for everyone. It seems like everyone didn't want to post their opinion on Maverick before the night came. Understandable, but we need to begin discussion again. If you look at my counter post against Maverick, it should be pretty easy to see that he is one of the remaining mafia.
I need to hear what everyone thought about my post. Asap, because I don't want to waste time.
Why are you rushing a vote on Maverick before Sufficiency? We have 48 hours. What time are we wasting? You bring up some interesting points yes, but why push this before someone we all agree on?
Do you still agree that Sufficiency is Mafia? If so, both of you do agree with that, so one of you is lying and willing to bus your last teammate, which is still a win for town.
Sufficiency first, and then we smoke out the last member. Otherwise this is pretty damning evidence against you DimmuKlok.
Too easy. Blubb, you can come out now.
Yes, in case you were wondering, that is me saying willz is the other mafia member.
Gee I'm glad your time wasn't wasted, we have ~44 hours left to vote and you immediately know who to vote for. Thanks.
I'll redo my case against you with the new evidence you kindly provided. You're being pretty desperate to pull this stuff with so much time left on the vote.
There's only 5 of us, to get a successful lynch off you need 3. Me and Maverick clearly won't vote against ourselves, which leaves you, blubb, and sufficiency. 2 of you are Mafia.
Give me a good reason why you pick me because of my post, when it could have been ANYONE town who called you out on your ridiculous notion of not wasting any time.
It wasn't calling me out that made it obvious. It wasn't even defending Maverick. What sold the deal was that you, along with Maverick, wanted to push the Sufficiency lynch. Maverick should be considered confirmed mafia after the reply I made about him. His focus first and foremost was a Sufficiency lynch. This made it obvious that he was town. The only options was you or Blubb. I had suspected that it was you after going through your filter, but I knew one of you would slip.
Blubb, go through Mavericks and Willz filters and see their relations to eachother and gunman. You'll see it.
On March 11 2012 11:45 DimmuKlok wrote: Ok, I think that's enough lurking for everyone. It seems like everyone didn't want to post their opinion on Maverick before the night came. Understandable, but we need to begin discussion again. If you look at my counter post against Maverick, it should be pretty easy to see that he is one of the remaining mafia.
I need to hear what everyone thought about my post. Asap, because I don't want to waste time.
Why are you rushing a vote on Maverick before Sufficiency? We have 48 hours. What time are we wasting? You bring up some interesting points yes, but why push this before someone we all agree on?
Do you still agree that Sufficiency is Mafia? If so, both of you do agree with that, so one of you is lying and willing to bus your last teammate, which is still a win for town.
Sufficiency first, and then we smoke out the last member. Otherwise this is pretty damning evidence against you DimmuKlok.
On March 10 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: I'm assuming Sufficiency is one of the mafia that we have left. I'm less confident with going with someone else at the time.
On March 10 2012 01:58 Maverick32x wrote: Dim- This one kind of breaks my heart because for a long time I really thought Dim was town.. but allow me to explain. Dim targetted Trackd00r at the end of this rant. That means that him and Trackd00r can not be mafia. Dim also votes randomly for Beorn for being a lurker... The only other person who voted for Beorn was... Sufficiency!! (Starting to see the connection?) He defends sufficiency- and NEVER accusses him.. Dim and Sufficiency have a connection.
Read it, and dismantled it. Multiple times might I add when it comes to the whole beorn thing. You say I defended Sufficiency, but that's not true at all. I've done nothing but try to get information out of that guy, but it's completely useless since he's given up on the game. You people keep trying to make a connection to me and Sufficiency and I'm taking note of it.
On March 10 2012 12:02 DimmuKlok wrote: This is a lot of text, but that's because I responded to every part of Mavericks post. It's crucial that you read it in it's entirety. It became painfully obvious to me that Maverick was Mafia by the end of the post.
On March 10 2012 08:20 Maverick32x wrote: Sure, I'll break down all my reasoning.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote: My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
It's past 4 in the morning here so I'm going to wait to post who I think we should lynch for in the morning. What I do want to post now is who is slipping underneath the radar... Rainmaker has posted twice so far. In his last post he said he had to head to class and that he would post his later on, which he never did. Beorn has only had one post thus far in which he agrees with the general consensus on random lynches.
Early on you pick out two people.. 1 of which is confirmed town, the other though lost interest in the game, his replacement I'm thinking is also town.
Your first reason for me being mafia, is me defending 2 players that we later found out ended up being the correct decision...
On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103?
gutty feelings.
Fair enough... I was hoping it was something a little more elaborate, but ok.
Despite this complete dodge/slap in the face. You seem okay with taking this as answer.
I seem ok with the answer... This is your second reason for me being mafia...
I've already stated that was one of my multiple attempts at getting more info out of Sufficiency. My reaction and that face at the end was the face of me coming the realization that Sufficiency wasn't a mastermind, just someone who didn't want to put time into this thread.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
Targeting the lurker, seems safe... however what about sufficiency?!
What about him? Am I supposed to be mentioning Sufficiency in all my posts? I've explained multiple times that post was to get Beorn out of hiding and had nothing to do with Sufficiency. Sufficiency just randomly accused beorn, and I took that opportunity to try and get him to start posting.
On March 03 2012 03:33 Rainmaker5 wrote: Ok I'm going to draft up a list and announce my vote real quick. this formatiting will be a bit wonky but I don't have time to really make shit pretty right now.
going to link post #s so I don't have to explain where I'm getting information
Otoshi~~~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011 Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch.
Gunman Don't really have a read on him b/c he doesn't really seem sure of his own opinion would like to hear more from him but I can't really say that FoSing currently
Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good
Mav is seems pretty opposed to a random lynch, not to much to say after that
Beorn doesn't really seem to have an opinion- no read
So I don't really like Pablos's style, but he cleaned up towards the end. Mav and Memtoss are off my radar currenly because even if they're scum they're encouraging posts and moving forward that's going to hurt them. Suff is kinda sketchy- takes attention away from his rampant fingering by putting it on people who didn't react.
But I really feel the guy who's generating the most noise is definitely OtoshimonoU. He feels really scummy and even if he's jsut playing poorly is the type of guy that real scum can use to keep deflecting attention.
Which I guess is something you can suspect me of doing lol
Anyway that's my vote and my analysis. Wish me luck on my Midterm!
The only useful thing about this post is your opinion on OtoshimonoU. There is no point in bringing up the names of people that are not on our current suspect list and then not even accuse them of anything. That kind of information is just taking up space. You haven't posted much up until now and that post is looking pretty suspicious to me...
##FoS: Rainmaker5
Again, confirmed townie.
Him being a confirmed townie didn't make that post any more useful. I was correct in my suspicion of him. He ended up just being an inactive townie who got mod killed, instead of a mafia unwilling to contribute like I suspected.
There is no need for this to be included in your case against me. The fact that it was included should be looked upon as suspicious.
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
Still nothing on sufficiency...
Why would there be anything on Sufficiency? This was posted right after I proposed a lynch on Beorn with Sufficiency! The reason for the post was to pressure Beorn, which I explained here:
Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time.
Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other.
On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more.
You of all people should know this, considering this post was directed at you. Once again, highly suspicious that this made it into your case on me.
@Sufficiency- Good posts!! I'm really glad to hear from you!! That being said, I truly am suspecting the following people as the most likely to be mafia at this point-
Sufficiency- Its not so much the things you said, but the reactions that I've been gathering from the bottom two. Obviously I suspected you from the start due to your poor posting. But it seems like a lot of the other people were eager to let you get by as "poor town", and you weren't confronted at all. Then all of a sudden you post that you want to get rid of the lurker, and Dim hopes right on board. You've established zero credability in this thread, if anything you were seen as a non-helpful, yet for some reason you're getting bandwagon support.....
Dim- You've spent a lot of time defending Mementoss, and bandwagoned with Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote:
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads. Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
I think this is highly suspicous behavior. Both players have bounced off each other and defended each other's actions to establish credability.
Mementos:
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Creating excuses for Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him.
You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia.
On March 03 2012 02:57 Mementoss wrote:
@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town.
Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well
On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote: Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r.
Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information.
My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red]
Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes.
All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia...
So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded.
Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time.
Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other.
On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more.
Kind of a strange post.. seemingly distancing yourself from sufficiency since you're starting to worry that people are connecting you... You suspect Beorn of lurking and being scum.. but again.. no mention of sufficiency...
Um, what? This is the post that was describing my bandwagoning with Sufficiency and our so called "connection" you claim we have. "No mention of Sufficiency", not sure what you mean by this. There is no reason for me to be randomly accusing him in that post.
On March 03 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote: I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency. I can't tell if he's smart and trying to get reactions out of people with his posts, or one of the many other things I've considered. If people are interested I can make a more detailed case on my opinion of him, but even I'm not too confident in my read on him.
This NEVER happens.
Yes, actually it did. Nobody asked for it until willz, and when he did I answered his question about beorn, along with my read on Sufficiency in the next post. As I stated above, because of his inactivity it was hard to have a good case on him:
On March 08 2012 15:14 Maverick32x wrote: I really think we are pressuring the wrong guy if we are targeting Dim.... I completely agree with Trackd00r that we need to target one of those 3 lurkers.
Gunman, pablols or sufficiency... I would say the order that makes the most sense is the one I just listed... if we have a DT remaining, they should investigate sufficiency and hope hes just a regular mafia so we can set up a hit on the following day (assuming we get this next lynch correct)
My vote right now is for Gunman. I'm thinking that we are pointing fingers at each other while Mafia just slide into the background.... It seems like the remaining town are in a frenzy to try to stay alive and solve this... while the remaining people are not involved in this at all....
This is my assumption too. Of the three I'm thinking Gunman is the most likely candidate, but it's hard to say with them being so inactive in the late game. I have to look into this further before I vote.
I would say Sufficiency is the least likely to be mafia, but that's only if I can make the assumption that this early posts were to get reads on their reactions, and not just bad play. The posts I'm referencing:
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
On March 05 2012 08:27 DimmuKlok wrote: GG Mementoss, it's been fun.
OtoshimonoU, what is your read on Sufficiency? Also, who is your top scum read right now and why?
It honestly sounds like you're trying to figure out who's the biggest threat in the town...
That post is simply me trying to get more information out of Oto. How you came to that conclusion and felt it was worth including in your list of reasons I'm mafia, is beyond me.
On March 07 2012 00:46 blubbdavid wrote: Oh shoot, didn't think about the possibility of a Godfather. Dimmu's now randomly pointed against Willz, that's confusing. Could you please elaborate more why Willz looks suspicious?
And I feel too that a DT case against Rain would be wasted. Even if Rain returned town, how would it be helpful? "Hey look guys, we have a townie here, but one who doesn't contibute."
I don't see how a DT case on Rain is wasted, or even less effective than a DT case on anyone else. Everyone has the same chance of being mafia, statistically, and Rain is the most likely to come up as Mafia in my opinion. If you investigate anyone and they turn up town, what does that tell you? Nothing, because it could be wrong, and even if it's right then you just have a confirmed town player who will continue to do what they did before that.
My opinion of Willz is after this.
Possibly directing the DT towards a town?
If I was mafia, why would I care if a DT case went down on Rain? We now know he was a inactive towny, which I would have known at the time if i was mafia. Another massive slip Maverick.
On March 07 2012 03:03 DimmuKlok wrote: Why I called out Willz:
On March 04 2012 09:11 willz22912 wrote: For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new).
On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote: My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?...
...Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post.
On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote: Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.
He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this:
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote: Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of...
On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote: Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information.
On March 06 2012 09:22 willz22912 wrote:
On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote: I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get.
I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on.
This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up.
After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either.
Why you called out Willz- to protect Sufficiency? Pretty much switching the pressure..
Funny you say that now. You initial response was "Dim... I like that post.. a lot... ". Sounds like a lot of bandwagoning to me. It's obvious you're making wild assumptions.
On March 08 2012 15:14 Maverick32x wrote: I really think we are pressuring the wrong guy if we are targeting Dim.... I completely agree with Trackd00r that we need to target one of those 3 lurkers.
Gunman, pablols or sufficiency... I would say the order that makes the most sense is the one I just listed... if we have a DT remaining, they should investigate sufficiency and hope hes just a regular mafia so we can set up a hit on the following day (assuming we get this next lynch correct)
My vote right now is for Gunman. I'm thinking that we are pointing fingers at each other while Mafia just slide into the background.... It seems like the remaining town are in a frenzy to try to stay alive and solve this... while the remaining people are not involved in this at all....
This is my assumption too. Of the three I'm thinking Gunman is the most likely candidate, but it's hard to say with them being so inactive in the late game. I have to look into this further before I vote.
I would say Sufficiency is the least likely to be mafia, but that's only if I can make the assumption that this early posts were to get reads on their reactions, and not just bad play. The posts I'm referencing:
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
Later, I tried to confirm which it was, and sadly his answer was:
On March 02 2012 20:18 Sufficiency wrote:
On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103?
gutty feelings.
You defend sufficiency some more....
That was not a defense of Sufficiency. I was giving my read on him at the time and I even said in the post that I would only consider him town if his early posts were to generate reactions and responses, which he never said was the case.
On March 09 2012 09:46 DimmuKlok wrote: I went with Gunman. Obviously it's our only option at this point.
Defending would be too obvious.....
Once again you're just making the assumption I'm mafia. Saying "defending would be too obvious" isn't going to prove anything. How is this a reason I'm mafia?
On March 10 2012 08:20 Maverick32x wrote: SO there are a couple examples of the 'connection'... I'm all for going for sufficiency first though.. so you still got time~
Lastly, who could the other 2 mafia be if not Sufficiency and Dim? Really try to answer that, and look at the connection between confirmed town and the 1 mafia that we have left.... There is a pattern of communication here- everyone left here had sufficiency in their sights at some point in the game... except Dim....
How bout you, buddy? With how many slips you made in that post, it's obvious. I urge everyone to go through Mavericks filter and see for yourself.
##FoS: Maverick32x
This is my point of view while reading the thread. You said you still suspected Sufficiency. Maverick still suspected Sufficiency. You now suspect Maverick. You are trying to convince other town to vote for you. By the time I came into this thread and read up tonight, you had declared your vote for Maverick and you were 100% confident. I am asking for clarification since we still have time and there is no need to rush, and you use this to justify calling me Mafia? The fact that I was willing to push a Sufficiency lynch that you yourself agreed with not more than a day ago?
It all comes to blubb in the tiebreaker and who he believes I guess. Or hell, I'll even listen to Sufficiency and see his reasons.
Ok. I don't have time to keep going back and forth I'll back in a few hours, or in the morning when I wake up. If you're curious about my views, just read my recent posts. I've explained my thinking. I'll be back.
On March 11 2012 11:45 DimmuKlok wrote: Ok, I think that's enough lurking for everyone. It seems like everyone didn't want to post their opinion on Maverick before the night came. Understandable, but we need to begin discussion again. If you look at my counter post against Maverick, it should be pretty easy to see that he is one of the remaining mafia.
I need to hear what everyone thought about my post. Asap, because I don't want to waste time.
Why are you rushing a vote on Maverick before Sufficiency? We have 48 hours. What time are we wasting? You bring up some interesting points yes, but why push this before someone we all agree on?
Do you still agree that Sufficiency is Mafia? If so, both of you do agree with that, so one of you is lying and willing to bus your last teammate, which is still a win for town.
Sufficiency first, and then we smoke out the last member. Otherwise this is pretty damning evidence against you DimmuKlok.
On March 10 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: I'm assuming Sufficiency is one of the mafia that we have left. I'm less confident with going with someone else at the time.
On March 10 2012 01:58 Maverick32x wrote: Dim- This one kind of breaks my heart because for a long time I really thought Dim was town.. but allow me to explain. Dim targetted Trackd00r at the end of this rant. That means that him and Trackd00r can not be mafia. Dim also votes randomly for Beorn for being a lurker... The only other person who voted for Beorn was... Sufficiency!! (Starting to see the connection?) He defends sufficiency- and NEVER accusses him.. Dim and Sufficiency have a connection.
Read it, and dismantled it. Multiple times might I add when it comes to the whole beorn thing. You say I defended Sufficiency, but that's not true at all. I've done nothing but try to get information out of that guy, but it's completely useless since he's given up on the game. You people keep trying to make a connection to me and Sufficiency and I'm taking note of it.
On March 10 2012 12:02 DimmuKlok wrote: This is a lot of text, but that's because I responded to every part of Mavericks post. It's crucial that you read it in it's entirety. It became painfully obvious to me that Maverick was Mafia by the end of the post.
On March 10 2012 08:20 Maverick32x wrote: Sure, I'll break down all my reasoning.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote: My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
It's past 4 in the morning here so I'm going to wait to post who I think we should lynch for in the morning. What I do want to post now is who is slipping underneath the radar... Rainmaker has posted twice so far. In his last post he said he had to head to class and that he would post his later on, which he never did. Beorn has only had one post thus far in which he agrees with the general consensus on random lynches.
Early on you pick out two people.. 1 of which is confirmed town, the other though lost interest in the game, his replacement I'm thinking is also town.
Your first reason for me being mafia, is me defending 2 players that we later found out ended up being the correct decision...
On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103?
gutty feelings.
Fair enough... I was hoping it was something a little more elaborate, but ok.
Despite this complete dodge/slap in the face. You seem okay with taking this as answer.
I seem ok with the answer... This is your second reason for me being mafia...
I've already stated that was one of my multiple attempts at getting more info out of Sufficiency. My reaction and that face at the end was the face of me coming the realization that Sufficiency wasn't a mastermind, just someone who didn't want to put time into this thread.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
Targeting the lurker, seems safe... however what about sufficiency?!
What about him? Am I supposed to be mentioning Sufficiency in all my posts? I've explained multiple times that post was to get Beorn out of hiding and had nothing to do with Sufficiency. Sufficiency just randomly accused beorn, and I took that opportunity to try and get him to start posting.
On March 03 2012 03:33 Rainmaker5 wrote: Ok I'm going to draft up a list and announce my vote real quick. this formatiting will be a bit wonky but I don't have time to really make shit pretty right now.
going to link post #s so I don't have to explain where I'm getting information
Otoshi~~~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011 Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch.
Gunman Don't really have a read on him b/c he doesn't really seem sure of his own opinion would like to hear more from him but I can't really say that FoSing currently
Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good
Mav is seems pretty opposed to a random lynch, not to much to say after that
Beorn doesn't really seem to have an opinion- no read
So I don't really like Pablos's style, but he cleaned up towards the end. Mav and Memtoss are off my radar currenly because even if they're scum they're encouraging posts and moving forward that's going to hurt them. Suff is kinda sketchy- takes attention away from his rampant fingering by putting it on people who didn't react.
But I really feel the guy who's generating the most noise is definitely OtoshimonoU. He feels really scummy and even if he's jsut playing poorly is the type of guy that real scum can use to keep deflecting attention.
Which I guess is something you can suspect me of doing lol
Anyway that's my vote and my analysis. Wish me luck on my Midterm!
The only useful thing about this post is your opinion on OtoshimonoU. There is no point in bringing up the names of people that are not on our current suspect list and then not even accuse them of anything. That kind of information is just taking up space. You haven't posted much up until now and that post is looking pretty suspicious to me...
##FoS: Rainmaker5
Again, confirmed townie.
Him being a confirmed townie didn't make that post any more useful. I was correct in my suspicion of him. He ended up just being an inactive townie who got mod killed, instead of a mafia unwilling to contribute like I suspected.
There is no need for this to be included in your case against me. The fact that it was included should be looked upon as suspicious.
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
Still nothing on sufficiency...
Why would there be anything on Sufficiency? This was posted right after I proposed a lynch on Beorn with Sufficiency! The reason for the post was to pressure Beorn, which I explained here:
Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time.
Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other.
On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more.
You of all people should know this, considering this post was directed at you. Once again, highly suspicious that this made it into your case on me.
@Sufficiency- Good posts!! I'm really glad to hear from you!! That being said, I truly am suspecting the following people as the most likely to be mafia at this point-
Sufficiency- Its not so much the things you said, but the reactions that I've been gathering from the bottom two. Obviously I suspected you from the start due to your poor posting. But it seems like a lot of the other people were eager to let you get by as "poor town", and you weren't confronted at all. Then all of a sudden you post that you want to get rid of the lurker, and Dim hopes right on board. You've established zero credability in this thread, if anything you were seen as a non-helpful, yet for some reason you're getting bandwagon support.....
Dim- You've spent a lot of time defending Mementoss, and bandwagoned with Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote:
My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss.
Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment.
On March 03 2012 03:09 Sufficiency wrote: If I have to choose from the three I listed above, however, I'd probably just lynch beorn. It feels to me that his inactivity is either because he is really scum, or his lack of power (i.e. he is probably vanilla). I really don't think he is a PR of any sort. It feels like a safe lynch to me.
In my opinion, day1 lynch is very difficult to conduct. Without any "hard" evidence (from kills, etc.) and only through talking, any mafia can be just as pro-town as anyone else.
I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today.
On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later.
Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads. Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table.
I think this is highly suspicous behavior. Both players have bounced off each other and defended each other's actions to establish credability.
Mementos:
On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote:
Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts)
Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too.
Creating excuses for Sufficiency.
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum.
No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt
Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU)
I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him.
You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia.
On March 03 2012 02:57 Mementoss wrote:
@Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town.
Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well
On March 02 2012 12:04 Maverick32x wrote: Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior.
@Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times)
Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r.
Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now.
Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet.
The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information.
My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red]
Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes.
All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia...
So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded.
Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time.
Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information.
I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here:
On March 03 2012 05:06 DimmuKlok wrote: Beorn, we're still waiting for your case on who to lynch. When you decide to start contributing, please also give me your opinion on Rainmaker and what you think about my read on him.
My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other.
On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more.
Kind of a strange post.. seemingly distancing yourself from sufficiency since you're starting to worry that people are connecting you... You suspect Beorn of lurking and being scum.. but again.. no mention of sufficiency...
Um, what? This is the post that was describing my bandwagoning with Sufficiency and our so called "connection" you claim we have. "No mention of Sufficiency", not sure what you mean by this. There is no reason for me to be randomly accusing him in that post.
On March 03 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote: I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency. I can't tell if he's smart and trying to get reactions out of people with his posts, or one of the many other things I've considered. If people are interested I can make a more detailed case on my opinion of him, but even I'm not too confident in my read on him.
This NEVER happens.
Yes, actually it did. Nobody asked for it until willz, and when he did I answered his question about beorn, along with my read on Sufficiency in the next post. As I stated above, because of his inactivity it was hard to have a good case on him:
On March 08 2012 15:14 Maverick32x wrote: I really think we are pressuring the wrong guy if we are targeting Dim.... I completely agree with Trackd00r that we need to target one of those 3 lurkers.
Gunman, pablols or sufficiency... I would say the order that makes the most sense is the one I just listed... if we have a DT remaining, they should investigate sufficiency and hope hes just a regular mafia so we can set up a hit on the following day (assuming we get this next lynch correct)
My vote right now is for Gunman. I'm thinking that we are pointing fingers at each other while Mafia just slide into the background.... It seems like the remaining town are in a frenzy to try to stay alive and solve this... while the remaining people are not involved in this at all....
This is my assumption too. Of the three I'm thinking Gunman is the most likely candidate, but it's hard to say with them being so inactive in the late game. I have to look into this further before I vote.
I would say Sufficiency is the least likely to be mafia, but that's only if I can make the assumption that this early posts were to get reads on their reactions, and not just bad play. The posts I'm referencing:
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
On March 05 2012 08:27 DimmuKlok wrote: GG Mementoss, it's been fun.
OtoshimonoU, what is your read on Sufficiency? Also, who is your top scum read right now and why?
It honestly sounds like you're trying to figure out who's the biggest threat in the town...
That post is simply me trying to get more information out of Oto. How you came to that conclusion and felt it was worth including in your list of reasons I'm mafia, is beyond me.
On March 07 2012 00:46 blubbdavid wrote: Oh shoot, didn't think about the possibility of a Godfather. Dimmu's now randomly pointed against Willz, that's confusing. Could you please elaborate more why Willz looks suspicious?
And I feel too that a DT case against Rain would be wasted. Even if Rain returned town, how would it be helpful? "Hey look guys, we have a townie here, but one who doesn't contibute."
I don't see how a DT case on Rain is wasted, or even less effective than a DT case on anyone else. Everyone has the same chance of being mafia, statistically, and Rain is the most likely to come up as Mafia in my opinion. If you investigate anyone and they turn up town, what does that tell you? Nothing, because it could be wrong, and even if it's right then you just have a confirmed town player who will continue to do what they did before that.
My opinion of Willz is after this.
Possibly directing the DT towards a town?
If I was mafia, why would I care if a DT case went down on Rain? We now know he was a inactive towny, which I would have known at the time if i was mafia. Another massive slip Maverick.
On March 07 2012 03:03 DimmuKlok wrote: Why I called out Willz:
On March 04 2012 09:11 willz22912 wrote: For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere.
##Vote OtoshimonoU
Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new).
On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote: My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS?...
...Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency.
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post.
On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote: Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.
He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this:
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote: Okay, took a look at the responses.
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.
I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...
I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.
That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.
This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of...
On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote: Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.
This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information.
On March 06 2012 09:22 willz22912 wrote:
On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote: I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours...
See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get.
I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on.
This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up.
After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either.
Why you called out Willz- to protect Sufficiency? Pretty much switching the pressure..
Funny you say that now. You initial response was "Dim... I like that post.. a lot... ". Sounds like a lot of bandwagoning to me. It's obvious you're making wild assumptions.
On March 08 2012 15:14 Maverick32x wrote: I really think we are pressuring the wrong guy if we are targeting Dim.... I completely agree with Trackd00r that we need to target one of those 3 lurkers.
Gunman, pablols or sufficiency... I would say the order that makes the most sense is the one I just listed... if we have a DT remaining, they should investigate sufficiency and hope hes just a regular mafia so we can set up a hit on the following day (assuming we get this next lynch correct)
My vote right now is for Gunman. I'm thinking that we are pointing fingers at each other while Mafia just slide into the background.... It seems like the remaining town are in a frenzy to try to stay alive and solve this... while the remaining people are not involved in this at all....
This is my assumption too. Of the three I'm thinking Gunman is the most likely candidate, but it's hard to say with them being so inactive in the late game. I have to look into this further before I vote.
I would say Sufficiency is the least likely to be mafia, but that's only if I can make the assumption that this early posts were to get reads on their reactions, and not just bad play. The posts I'm referencing:
On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though.
Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours.
I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL.
Later, I tried to confirm which it was, and sadly his answer was:
On March 02 2012 20:18 Sufficiency wrote:
On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103?
gutty feelings.
You defend sufficiency some more....
That was not a defense of Sufficiency. I was giving my read on him at the time and I even said in the post that I would only consider him town if his early posts were to generate reactions and responses, which he never said was the case.
On March 09 2012 09:46 DimmuKlok wrote: I went with Gunman. Obviously it's our only option at this point.
Defending would be too obvious.....
Once again you're just making the assumption I'm mafia. Saying "defending would be too obvious" isn't going to prove anything. How is this a reason I'm mafia?
On March 10 2012 08:20 Maverick32x wrote: SO there are a couple examples of the 'connection'... I'm all for going for sufficiency first though.. so you still got time~
Lastly, who could the other 2 mafia be if not Sufficiency and Dim? Really try to answer that, and look at the connection between confirmed town and the 1 mafia that we have left.... There is a pattern of communication here- everyone left here had sufficiency in their sights at some point in the game... except Dim....
How bout you, buddy? With how many slips you made in that post, it's obvious. I urge everyone to go through Mavericks filter and see for yourself.
##FoS: Maverick32x
This is my point of view while reading the thread. You said you still suspected Sufficiency. Maverick still suspected Sufficiency. You now suspect Maverick. You are trying to convince other town to vote for you. By the time I came into this thread and read up tonight, you had declared your vote for Maverick and you were 100% confident. I am asking for clarification since we still have time and there is no need to rush, and you use this to justify calling me Mafia? The fact that I was willing to push a Sufficiency lynch that you yourself agreed with not more than a day ago?
It all comes to blubb in the tiebreaker and who he believes I guess. Or hell, I'll even listen to Sufficiency and see his reasons.
It's not hard to understand. Mavericks case on me made it obvious he was mafia. A simple look through his filter is all it takes to confirm the suspicion. With that knowledge it was easy to see that the push to lynch Sufficiency was something that was going to cost us the game.
Looking at Sufficiency's posts, you can't be clear if he is a bad town or mafia. Either way, he's inactive. What makes it a dead give away is Mavericks eagerness to lynch him. Even with me being just as likely as a suspect in his eyes, he's willing to wait because the Sufficiency lynch was easier at the time.
When you posted with the exact same intentions, it was too obvious.
Blubb and Sufficiency, please read everything I've posted and post back.
This is all I'm going to have time for tonight, but I'll be back in the morning.
On March 11 2012 14:01 DimmuKlok wrote: It wasn't calling me out that made it obvious. It wasn't even defending Maverick. What sold the deal was that you, along with Maverick, wanted to push the Sufficiency lynch. Maverick should be considered confirmed mafia after the reply I made about him. His focus first and foremost was a Sufficiency lynch. This made it obvious that he was town. The only options was you or Blubb. I had suspected that it was you after going through your filter, but I knew one of you would slip.
Blubb, go through Mavericks and Willz filters and see their relations to eachother and gunman. You'll see it.
On March 01 2012 13:48 DimmuKlok wrote: We shouldn't need to worry about a RL and I don't see the point in discussing one. Even if we don't have a solid case on someone after the first day, we would be better off lynching a lurker than someone at random. Mafia would love to not have to contribute.
Those are your words. Yet Sufficiency literally hasn't contributed at all.. and somehow wanting to vote him off his considered "confirmed mafia?" Give me a break... you're falling all over yourself right now!!!
And whats my relationship to gunman? The fact that I was the first person who committed to Gunman's vote? I don't see how you can say otherwise when its clear that I was the person that made that shift.. in essence... SAVING you Dim.....
Now lets take a bit of a deeper look into Mafia's reasons for lynching trackd00r.... It was clear that he had already been posting negatively about Dim.. he had come up with a large list of reasons why he was mafia.... Perhaps this was an attempt to keep Dim safe from his major opposition?
First off, it was ME who pushed on gunman first, please don't forget that Mav.
Ok Dimmu, you say that by pushing Suffiency, Mav makes himself obvious as scum. Why that? That's only the case if you know whether Suff is townie. Why is pushing against a lurking, inactive player an obvious sign for scum? I am doing it myself too. And I looked through Mav's filter again, and apart from some false assumption (*cough* at the beginning of my post), his posting is very stable, contrary to your's where you FOSed willz, and now Mav. And are you additionally assuming that Suff is scum too? Who of these three players would you say is town? Could you please tell me? Hmm? You say that there is an obvious connection between them and gunman? While they both somehow bandwagoned on gunman, I don't see any defense in regard to gunman. Now please tell me where this connection is. I don't see a connection. But I see a connection between you and gunman, as pointed out from you and the others.
The case you have on Mav is ridiculous. If you had played a bit better, you would have stayed on willz. Atm Mav has his vote on Suff which is a good sign, but imo we should get rid of the more manipulating scum first.
I'll leave my vote on you, Dimmu, till you can satisfyingly answer the questions I stressed out.
On March 12 2012 05:11 blubbdavid wrote: First off, it was ME who pushed on gunman first, please don't forget that Mav.
Ok Dimmu, you say that by pushing Suffiency, Mav makes himself obvious as scum. Why that? That's only the case if you know whether Suff is townie. Why is pushing against a lurking, inactive player an obvious sign for scum? I am doing it myself too. And I looked through Mav's filter again, and apart from some false assumption (*cough* at the beginning of my post), his posting is very stable, contrary to your's where you FOSed willz, and now Mav. And are you additionally assuming that Suff is scum too? Who of these three players would you say is town? Could you please tell me? Hmm? You say that there is an obvious connection between them and gunman? While they both somehow bandwagoned on gunman, I don't see any defense in regard to gunman. Now please tell me where this connection is. I don't see a connection. But I see a connection between you and gunman, as pointed out from you and the others.
The case you have on Mav is ridiculous. If you had played a bit better, you would have stayed on willz. Atm Mav has his vote on Suff which is a good sign, but imo we should get rid of the more manipulating scum first.
I'll leave my vote on you, Dimmu, till you can satisfyingly answer the questions I stressed out.
Uhg, I'm not saying pushing Sufficiency makes Mav obvious scum... I'm saying this:
On March 11 2012 14:01 DimmuKlok wrote: It wasn't calling me out that made it obvious. It wasn't even defending Maverick. What sold the deal was that you, along with Maverick, wanted to push the Sufficiency lynch. Maverick should be considered confirmed mafia after the reply I made about him. His focus first and foremost was a Sufficiency lynch. This made it obvious that he (Sufficiency) was town. The only options was you or Blubb. I had suspected that it was you after going through your filter, but I knew one of you would slip.
Blubb, go through Mavericks and Willz filters and see their relations to eachother and gunman. You'll see it.
And this:
On March 11 2012 17:26 DimmuKlok wrote: It's not hard to understand. Mavericks case on me made it obvious he was mafia. A simple look through his filter is all it takes to confirm the suspicion. With that knowledge it was easy to see that the push to lynch Sufficiency was something that was going to cost us the game.
What connection between me and gunman that they pointed out are you referring to? They've been talking about a connection between me and Sufficiency...
Ok, sry, I meant that they were pointing out on a connection between Suff and you, while you were pointing on their alleged connection to gunman. The connection between Suff and you:
On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103?
gutty feelings.
Fair enough... I was hoping it was something a little more elaborate, but ok.
This was before you both jumped both on Beorn. You jumped BOTH oN him after this "harmless" little conversation.
Now you are suspecting both willz and Mav, saying that Suff is the most townie player of them all. Regardless of his real alignment, even a blind man could see that he is not acting townlike.
Atm you act like desperate scum, knowing that it could end any moment.
MMmmm, I disagree. I'd say I'm acting like a town player that solved the puzzle.
Explain this post please:
On March 03 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote: I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency. I can't tell if he's smart and trying to get reactions out of people with his posts, or one of the many other things I've considered. If people are interested I can make a more detailed case on my opinion of him, but even I'm not too confident in my read on him.
Why would I be so willing with posting my read on Sufficiency so early in the game, un provoked, if he and I were both mafia? It brought attention where, if we were both mafia, shouldn't be brought. Anything I say about him would eventually come back to hurt me. And when asked, I gave my honest read on him, and my explanation of using Sufficiency to pressure Beorn into posting.
But you didn't post any read.. in fact you are trying to instill doubt with that post right there.... Despite the fact that all he has done all game is lurk.. some how he's "smart"....
How is he smart? This post was made early. At the time he was getting everyone worked up with his posting. This can be pro town because it can give you reads. Obviously we can assume now it was just bad play, but at the time it was a possibility.
I posted that read, once it was requested, as stated I would. We can go in circles all day.
It's not hard to understand. Mavericks case on me made it obvious he was mafia. A simple look through his filter is all it takes to confirm the suspicion. With that knowledge it was easy to see that the push to lynch Sufficiency was something that was going to cost us the game.
Looking at Sufficiency's posts, you can't be clear if he is a bad town or mafia. Either way, he's inactive. What makes it a dead give away is Mavericks eagerness to lynch him. Even with me being just as likely as a suspect in his eyes, he's willing to wait because the Sufficiency lynch was easier at the time.
When you posted with the exact same intentions, it was too obvious.
Blubb and Sufficiency, please read everything I've posted and post back.
This is all I'm going to have time for tonight, but I'll be back in the morning.
Fine, even assuming your assumptions about Maverick are true, why is anyone going along with Sufficiency first whom I suspected more than OtoshimonoU when they were the two likely suspects = Mafia behavior? Blubbdavid( who we both agree with is town) has commented that even he agrees with the case on Sufficiency as well.
You also state here: "Looking at Sufficiency's posts, you can't be clear if he is a bad town or mafia." This is the exact same reasoning we lynched OtoshimonoU, we didn't know any better that early in the game if he was bad town or mafia. Sufficiency exhibited the exact same behavior and has hardly been present in any discussion, but now you're willing to believe in him being town late game? You were perfectly fine with lynching OtoshimonoU, but now you leap to defend Sufficiency, who isn't even active enough to contribute?
Myself, Blubbdavid and Maverick have all made various posts detailing how we were against Sufficiency because of his behavior. You have agreed with this up until now, I have quoted a post you made here that you still haven't made any comment on:
On March 10 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: I'm assuming Sufficiency is one of the mafia that we have left. I'm less confident with going with someone else at the time.
You only change your opinion after Maverick questions you, and you lump me into it based on your previous case of me + the fact that I was still willing to push sufficiency? EVEN IF YOU ARE RIGHT ABOUT MAVERICK, I asked if you still agreed with the case on Sufficiency, because in that case we should still push for that lynch and sort out the last mafia with that information. I would have been willing to hear you out regarding Maverick if you made a better case and you did not deflect my questions about your views on Sufficiency. I was asking clarification, you used that post to justify lumping me with Maverick. In your spat with Maverick before I made that post, you also posted this:
On March 10 2012 13:42 DimmuKlok wrote: What makes you think I know? I'm sure they will reveal themselves eventually. Probably in a similar fashion.
So you were setting up anyone who was going to question you with this post. This is right after you make your case against Maverick, but no one is allowed to punch holes in it? No one is allowed to comment on the suddeness of this change when you have consistently been against Sufficiency? It's either your way or Mafia?
If you have one agreed on suspect, and still have 1 more Mafia to find, and you claim to find that Mafia, why not go for the agreed on suspect first? How is that un-townlike behavior? It is still removing a Mafia if we are correct, and all evidence points against Sufficiency. You still have to convince the rest of the town to your opinion
You made the radical switch, claiming this as you "solving the puzzle". Why is this town behavior? Did you not agree with Sufficiency's case, then why keep posting that you do? We keep pointing to your "connection" with Sufficiency. The fact is, he hasn't posted enough to justify any defense of him. I tried with OtoshimonoU but still couldn't convince anyone to switch, how is this now any different? How are you willing to suggest Sufficiency is town when he hasn't posted anything worth defending. Where is his town behavior, where is his opinions on the rest of us, who does he think is Mafia? None of that exists. It could likely be Sufficiency is really town and we force a mis-lynch, but it also equally likely that Sufficiency is Mafia and we keep going, but like OtoshimonoU, we won't know until we lynch him. Unless you have inside information like being our DT or being Mafia, those are the only two explanations to really "know" what alignment he really is.
And this final quote from you is what really annoys me:
On March 10 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote: Please vote for me if you think I'm mafia. If you're all willing to throw the game away on such a stupid idea, then I'm not going to put in the effort to help this town.
This is still Mafia, this is still a my-lo situation, we still don't have concrete reads unless one of us is the DT, and he hasn't claimed. But no we can't suspect you because we would throw the game away because of your arrogant behavior. You aren't going to single handedly win this game even if you made all the correct reads if you can't convince others to support you by being supremely arrogant.
Even now though DimmuKlok, I'm willing to hold off on voting against you, because I'm trying to be objective and not use my previous angry feelings towards you. So make your case to sway my vote, I'll be back in 12 hours and I will decide then.
I'd have to have REALLY compelling evidence to not vote sufficiency.. the way I see it- if sufficiency is mafia, then we've won the game..
Lets play out a couple scenarios-
We vote out Sufficiency who is Mafia- Dim is the clear next target based off everything we have said, and his reaction so far. We vote out Willz who is Mafia- Well I guess I'd be the logical next target, and we lose, thought it could still be sufficiency or Blubbz.... We vote out Blubbz who is mafia- Well, it could be any of the remainders really... We vote out Dim who is mafia- This leaves Sufficiency or Blubbz, since either of them COULD be mafia.... And I guess for the fun of it, I get voted out and we lose.
Obviously any person we vote out and we're wrong about.. we will lose.
This is something that worries me however.. a lot.. and I was thinking about this before I went to bed...
I made my read BEFORE the night ended... yet I'm still alive and trackd00r was killed... Is it possible that I was left alive so that I would be able to mislead the town into lynching Sufficiency/Dim? Or would my death be seen as a confirmation of my theory, so I couldn't be killed or else the mafia would be sure to lose?
There are five possibilities why you are still alive, Mavz: 1. You are scum 2. They want to mislead us. 3. They don't see a threat in you. 4. Your death undermines our theories. 5. You are scum Note how the first and the last option are alike. Maybe I should stop assuming that you are town and start to look at you from a neutral point of view. The second option: I am against Suff and Dimmu too, as was trackdoor. Which leads me to the third option: trackdoor argued much stronger than you in the last round, suspecting me and Dimmu. The fourth option... honestly I don't know about that one.
In your opinion, lynching Suff is the safest way? Well, I think that Dimmu is mafia, and Suff close second. If you can convince me, I will change my vote to Suff.
I've encouraged everyone to look at me neutrally... I get the sense that people are just 'assuming' I'm town because I've been vocal since the start and type big posts.... Read them, and decide for yourself.
Trackd00r was really arguing a lot.. so maybe that is what happened? I'll try not to read too much into it I guess.. hard to guess motivations...
As for why Sufficiency is the safest over Dim.. if we vote for Dim, that leaves A LOT of possibilities open... Willz could still be mafia.. you could still be mafia... I could still be mafia....
If we vote out sufficiency.. its clear how adament Dim has defended him, and how myself, you and Willz all have targetting sufficiency much more than Dim... so logically.. thats the next step....
Either way for me, it doesn't really matter.. I'll vote for Dim or Sufficiency first.. whichever you guys think will lock down our last vote....
As daylight savings has begun, the deadline may be changed for those not in North America. As a result, I'll bump back the deadline one hour to avoid any confusion. Additionally, this allows us to maintain the 48 hour cycle. Less than 8 hours remain in the day. Lynch locks at 11:00 KST.
On March 13 2012 02:51 Maverick32x wrote: I've encouraged everyone to look at me neutrally... I get the sense that people are just 'assuming' I'm town because I've been vocal since the start and type big posts.... Read them, and decide for yourself.
Trackd00r was really arguing a lot.. so maybe that is what happened? I'll try not to read too much into it I guess.. hard to guess motivations...
As for why Sufficiency is the safest over Dim.. if we vote for Dim, that leaves A LOT of possibilities open... Willz could still be mafia.. you could still be mafia... I could still be mafia....
If we vote out sufficiency.. its clear how adament Dim has defended him, and how myself, you and Willz all have targetting sufficiency much more than Dim... so logically.. thats the next step....
Either way for me, it doesn't really matter.. I'll vote for Dim or Sufficiency first.. whichever you guys think will lock down our last vote....
Does not make a bit of sense. If I turned up mafia then that would be pretty obvious that you and Willz would be town. Suff would be the obvious next lynch, but you could debate over blubb. Lynching Suff however, would go a long way in getting people to believe you were town, or win you the game if he's town himself. Might as well make use of a inactive teammate, right?
On March 07 2012 05:36 Maverick32x wrote: Brubbles- Can you explain a bit more about why you think Dim is suspicious? I see a lot of flipflopping in willz's posts, and I do see where Dim is coming from with his reasoning. I don't think that is completely fabricated....
Guy's, I made a mistake. I don't see why Maverick would say such a thing to a teammate. There is no reason to put pressure back on Willz when you can easily bandwagon with with Brubbles.
This luckily doesn't mess up my read on Maverick. It does however lead me to believe that my read on Willz is incorrect.
There's some possibilities on the other mafia member, one of which I mentioned above(Maverick getting rid of an inactive teammate to establish credibility and win the game), but it's just one of the things I'm considering right now. I don't see the importance anyway. Me mentioning who my other mafia suspect was just Maverick trying to get me to choose incorrectly and immediately making it 3vs2.
Either way the lynch should be between me and Maverick. Lynching Suff is by far the more risky option. If anything, Maverick could have told Sufficiency that he no longer needs to defend himself and to let Maverick establish credibility be getting rid of him. Why wouldn't I try the same thing, instead of trying to defend someone as difficult as Sufficiency? Someone who still refuses to defend themselves!
If the following statement confused you: "I don't see why Maverick would say such a thing to a teammate", I was saying I don't see why Maverick would put pressure back on a mafia teammate(Willz) instead of just bandwagoning with Brubbles.
After reading it, I thought it sounded a little confusing, so I figured I would elaborate.
yeesh... okay- lets keep this in mind... we are in a lynch or lose situation.. if we screw up a lynch.. its game...
As for trying to sacrifice a mafia to establish credibility- YES!!! That is EXACTLY the problem right now!! That is why I asked you to extend your vote PAST the first person, and to look to who is also the second. You need to be right TWICE in order to win.
And that quote is an awesome example of me sticking up for you- since I saw a lot of your behaviors as pro-town. Based off my reads however- the only logical TWO (not ONE, but TWO), would be you and sufficiency.. no other players line up as well as you guys do.... I can point to every single person left and try to devise reasons why they ALONE are mafia.. However, that is not enough for us to win the game... we need to look at interactions between players and the way we all have interacted in order to come to a conclusion that WINS.
I like how you bring up that in the quote you stick up for me lol, only to say based of your reads I'm mafia. Do you think contradicting yourself is a good thing to point out? The fact that you stuck up for me, who I know is town(obviously), and at the same time put pressure on Willz, is another obvious example of the bandwagoning you've been doing through the game to get rid of town players.
Coming back to this thread, so DimmuKlok, you think that you mis-read me now since Blubbdavid won't go along with you? That's cute, but I'm sorry, but that's not enough proof to convince me of your innocence. You shouldn't have jumped so quickly if you didn't think you had an ironclad case (your assumption that my guilt lies with posting after Maverick was super flawed) and now you're backtracking because Blubb won't support you.
However, I feel like letting Sufficiency stand as it is is giving him too much power. It is a close vote as it is, 3 people needed to get a lynch, but Sufficiency is free to cast his vote when he wishes without any explanation. If we do have a DT as town, I think now's the time to claim to try and make the choice, keeping in mind they possibly also have a godfather. We make a wrong choice and it's GG, there's no point trying to save it unless you never ran a check on any of us.
I'm inclined to get rid of Sufficiency first, and if he flips Mafia, then logically go after DimmuKlok. However, if you guys think DimmuKlok is the more dangerous of the two, then I will go along with it. I'm trying to be objective in my opinion on DimmuKlok since he could possibly still be town and correct, but I'm finding it very hard after he jumped the gun on me, again.
And Dim- I'm not saying my reads are perfect by ANY stretch of the imagination.. but it shows that I make decisions based off the information I have presented at the moment..
Ok on the other hand, now that I've thought about it. Do we want to assume that Sufficiency gets modkilled to vote for our other suspect now? I feel this is too risky, but it's worth mentioning based on how inactive Sufficiency is.
I only brought it up as a possible option, I feel like it's a little too risky as I stated. It all revolves to how much we believe DimmuKlok is Mafia. I feel he is highly suspicious, but not enough to risk switching unless you and Blubb think it'd be worth it.
If Sufficiency flips red like we all think he will, then the trail points at DimmuKlok 100% so we would have a solid gameplan for the next day.
I feel we shouldn't be overconfident and rely on a modkill, only town people have gotten modkilled ;p
Blubb seems way too ok with these lynches to me. I'm just saying. I thought I put up a more compelling argument, but I may have just been high.
Either way, I guess I'll go with the popular vote that isn't me of course, lol. If you guys say me and Suff are Mafia, then by all means vote off the guy who isn't contributing and let me live to see if he was in fact mafia the whole time. I promise voting me off will lose you the game.
Whatever you think my agenda has been, I've just been giving my honest reads of people.
I agree Maverick, it's kinda problematic that we wouldn't of had a successful lynch if not for Dimm switching, since Blubb never did. Though it remains to be seen if Sufficiency was actually Mafia all along.
In any case awaiting mods eagerly and thanks for all you've done to keep this game going.
Sufficiency was too busy to post in the thread because he was devising a plan. An evil plan. It had something to do with kidnapping. The details aren't important.
By stealing the power coins, the power rangers would be powerless! The town was DOOMED!
Then the hero mod stepped in and modkilled him for not voting.
Sufficiency the Goldar (Mafia Goon) has been lynched.
One of us is going to die tonight. My guess is it will be Willz because he doesn't have a major stance. I've been against Mav, Mav against me. With Blubb being the last mafia, this would be ideal.
I'm just saying this to remind you guys you might not be able to contribute soon...
I wasn't able to change my vote, neither did I want to do it. Either way, Sufficiency was lynched modkilled?
Dimmu, are your accusations against me some OMGUS or can you elaborate it more? Seems like Dimmu left everything behind what he wrote the past 48 hours and voted for Suff. Don't know how this are +points in your book Mav. On the other hand, he prevented a no-lynch. Wondered what happened if there was a stalemate next day.
We would of lost... If Dim is mafia... I wouldn't even be mad... Just impressed... I know you said you were going to sleep blubb... But you picked an awful time to just cast your vote and leave it...
Although DimmuKlok helped us continue the game with a successful lynch on a Mafia, he could have easily just bus'd his teammate (since he hasn't contributing anyway) to gain last second credibility for the final vote. Don't take this sudden cooperation blindly without looking for possible motives why.
Blubbdavid made a post asking if he should switch to Dim or Sufficiency and we posted 20 minutes after that saying Sufficiency, but he never changed his mind. This could have potentially been a game-ender as with a no-lynch we would have lost a town for free this night and had insufficiency majority to keep going. He posted his reasoning, but still, risking a game loss because "I wasn't able to change my vote, neither did I want to do it" has to be suspicious at this point in the game.
Maverick jumped onto Sufficiency with me even though I proposed an option to go after DimmuKlok immediately (using Blubbdavid's vote that he never changed) so we would still have had the 3 neccessary. He had the opportunity if he was Mafia to prosecute a potentially innocent town and win the game, so this clears him in my mind.
And of course I know for myself I'm town, so that leaves DimmuKlok and Blubbdavid as my two likely suspects. However, I still think it's DimmuKlok and that he's the Mafia godfather because he has been too brazen with his posting for anything otherwise. Without fear from a DT check, he's pushed several cases on us without success and has had too many holes in his theories. Don't forget as well all of the town deaths have also benefited him in some way. Mementoss gave him credibility, Sbrubbles was one of his accusers and also defended me against his case, trackd00r was also in support of me and had suspicions against DimmuKlok. Out of the possible 3 Mafia, we've killed two goons, which means either it's only 3 goons, or there has been a godfather in play all along, and the only person thats left that fits the bill is DimmuKlok.
I'm fairly confident of my read on DimmuKlok being Mafia, but even if you are truly town DimmuKlok, you've lost all credibility because you've attacked all 3 of us now in some way with little to no evidence. If you didn't point fingers so wildly, we might have been more sympathetic to your posts, but not anymore. Your actions aren't the actions of a "town who's solved the puzzle", your actions are of a Mafia trying to find some desperate way to stay alive. My fingers on you and I hope the town votes you next day.
##FOS: DimmuKlok with vote to follow if I don't get killed off.
I actually have 'work' to do at work sadly.. but my one thought that I want to throw in there.. is that if Dim was mafia.. he could of stuck to his guns and voted for me... and we would of lost the game.... why bother busing anyone when he could of won straight out? I'm going to look into the remaining people a bit more when I get a chance....
I am not so sure about this "Dimmu comes to save the town" thing. It's rather bandwagoning. Think about it. There was still the threat that Mav and willz could have changed their vote any moment, to lynch Dimmu instead. By voting for Suff, he easily avoided that danger, and even earned some town cred.
Why would I get rid of a teammate, just for town cred, if winning was the other option...
My guess is blubb is the remaining mafia, based on what happened at the lynch. He kept his vote on me. If you guys would have switched, I would have came up green, and town would lose. I went with the one chance we had, me being wrong and Suff being mafia.
Honestly, if I'm still considered mafia, then I don't know what I can say to prove anything to you guys. Putting all your effort into proving I'm the remaining mafia will be a waste of your time. You should use me being a confirmed town as information, if you're willing to take that leap of faith. I'll be doing some of my own detective work.
I'm leaning heavily on you not being Mafia Dim, and I'd like the remaining people to also consider this.... Not saying that he is 100% town or anything.....
Like I said, busy day at work, but when I get home I'll make a post before the night ends in case I get killed, kind of outlining my remaining thoughts... I'll try to get a list together of what I think specific people deaths during this last night could represent and point out who I think is most suspicious!
As for what would of happened if Dim didn't change his vote... we would of lost the game... Even if Dim was trying to bus his teammate, that is so risky when he literally could of WON. Right then and there. He could of stuck to a story of ME busing my own team mate, and using that as leverage to try to kill me and win the game...
Another thing that is important for those of you looking through the filters... don't forget that some of the players are replacement players... so perhaps we could look at the things they said previously that could indicate an alignment now that we know the full story?
Generally speaking- I want to point out that it appears Myself, Dim and Willz are the most 'active' of the remainders... Blubb- looking at you to try to put some stuff together here....
Well guys, that time of the year has come: Claim time. I am the Detective. Let’s continue with a short Q&A session:
Q: Why did you claim so late? A: I didn’t have a reason till now.
Q: So why are you NOW claiming, during night, is it some kind of knee-jerk reaction? A: Now there isn’t a big chance for me of getting killed, despite claiming. Why? Because this is the last round, I can use my ability only one last time. But I have already made up my mind about the situation. That’s why I want to share with you something, before I risk being killed.
Q: Let’s check some facts, who did you investigate all the time? A: Well, in the first night there didn’t happen much because my beloved predecessor Beorn actually didn’t use his ability. Talk about bad luck. In the second night, I investigated, guess who, gunman. It was because of his hyperaggressive post against rainmaker in that night. Needlessly to say, I successfully initiated the lynch on gunman the next day. In the next night, I investigated the other guy I suspected, Dimmu. Well, and here was where I came into trouble: He returned as town to me. Now I had no one to suspect, except for Sufficiency.
Q: Cool story bro A: I wasn’t thoroughly convinced that Dimmu was town. There was still the possibility of him being godfather. But I needed evidence. That’s why I waited with my claim during the last day. First, I wanted to challenge and observe Dimmu by leaving my vote on him. Second, I wanted to see what role Suff had. Now that I know that Suff is a normal goon, and gunman too, there is a high possibility of a Godfather left. Who could be very well Dimmu. That was the secret I wanted to share with you guys.
Q: You don’t see willz and Mav as scum? A: Nope. I am pretty sure that they are town.
Q: Why didn’t you investigate Suff the whole game through? A: Bitch, when there are so interesting targets like gunman and Dimmu, then why should I investigate Suff. Regardless, I really thought for a long time that Suff was a bad townie.
Q: And if you are scum and this is all a trap? A: Don’t be silly.
And that’s it guys, FOS DimmuKlok, in case I die this night.
And here something interactive for all the guys who follow this game:
Very interesting Blubb... I'll take that DT reveal with a grain of salt though sadly...
Here is my read: @Gunman- I don't really like to do this kind of 'read' in general since I don't think it carries much weight, but I figured I may as well point it out.. Look at his beginning posts... This is WHO he is responding to...
1st: Dim- 2nd: sufficiency 3rd: Sufficiency 4th: No One 5th: Dim 6th: No one 7th: Targets one confirmed townie and Willz former life. 8th: Quotes Pablols, targets Willz and confirmed townie. Trails off here, but I just think I wanted to point that out...
Bringing up Willz's character so early on and trying to make him a target could clear Willz as mafia...? He also defends me and stats I'm town (I don't want to leave this out so you guys will jump on me for it) but I think that was more of a move to establish credibility...
@Sufficiency- Much less to be read in his posts.. Its difficult because he is so short with everyone that it doesn't give you any information...
To be honest, my decision rests between Blubb and Dim.. both of them have very convincing stories/actions that make this extremely difficult to decide between.. Willz- if you are mafia.. congratulations.. you did an awesome job...
I would be voting for Dim without a doubt if it wasn't for those most recent voting antics.. unless this really was a plan to just fool us.. I truly don't know...
Ok, I re-read everything haha.. I'm going for Dim if I live through the night.. its the only way.. literally nothing else adds up...
Blubbs- you brought up DT a LOT.. which makes me think you're saying the right thing... Willz- you targeted the mafia and stuck with it... Dim- You're latest actions were great, but I can't help to think you may of just made a mistake and tried to get into the last round?
I think DimmuKlok's actions can be explained pretty well. Look at the mod post, look at the last vote. Sufficiency was getting modkilled or lynched, he was gone one way or another. This is getting lucky for town, that Sufficiency was so inactive that he gets modkilled, but it was still going to let the game continue. Therefore DimmuKlok saving us for extra credibility is the only plausible explanation left. He could not have won by forcing a no-lynch if Sufficiency is modkilled anyway. I repeat, HE COULD NOT HAVE WON from not voting, so that claim is a last ditch effort to buy credibility.
Even now he's being super arrogant in his behavior saying that he shouldn't be considered a suspect. Really dude? You made a giant post calling out Maverick and said you were "100% confident in your read." Then you said the two Mafia teammates left were me and Maverick, which now couldn't possible be true since I checked that during the vote. If i was Mafia and I made that post saying Sufficiency was likely to get modkilled and wanted to lynch an innocent town, I would have called for it and pushed your death DimmuKlok, same with Maverick. That clears both of us if we were Mafia, since we both had a way to "win the game" just like you did, except ours was 100% and yours was entirely dependent on if Sufficiency was afk.
Honestly, I've made the posts against you DimmuKlok in my filter, you have now accused ALL of us in some way, is that somehow supposed to make us like you more as town? I've said it before, Mafia is a team game, and your behavior while possibly townlike is very very arrogant and makes us not like you. So if you were town all along, sorry but you gave us no choice.
The last suspect left is Blubbdavid and he also warrants suspicion. The last thing DimmuKlok should have tried was claiming DT as well, to cause a he said/she said split and make us vote for who is more believable. In that situation though, I think he knows that he's on everyones suspect list and that claim wouldn't fly. So I'm inclined to believe Blubbdavid's claim that he is the real DT, but I have to point out as well that this is poor timing. He already had enough credibility with town and we were already pushing for his target DimmuKlok. There is no need in this case to actually make the claim. He actually removes himself as a target because if he gets killed tonight then we are completely on DimmuKlok, but if he really is a Mafia this is the perfect way to explain not being a target and reinforce our DimmuKlok lynch.
It is highly plausible that Blubbdavid is the real Mafia, and that he wins the game with our mis-lynch on DimmuKlok. If he does, then it's very well played by him. But the overall history of this game to me has been DimmuKlok's behavior towards everyone else.
It's going to be either Maverick or I who gets killed this night, and I think it'll be me just cause DimmuKlok likes me less Any other person getting killed would leave only one plausible suspect left and be a terrible decision. In any case, ggs it was fun but time consuming, but I think I would have enjoyed this a lot more had I been in from the start instead of as a replacement.
I just wanted to say that I don't like anyone less than anyone else. Nothing personal. The people who didn't participate did piss me off a bit, but I'm over it.
I say whoever is mafia should just kill me off tonight and make things interesting.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPyusIdkKWs&feature=related Day Five
Maverick32x was placed under one of Rita's spell! (I allowed her to come back to life for the purpose of this day post). However, by thinking positive she was able to overcome her fear of heights. She then tripped and fell to her death.
Maverick32x the yellow ranger (vanilla townie) has been killed.
I know for myself I'm vanilla but wasn't sure of Mavericks role, now that he is vanilla town, then the only town role besides my vanilla is either a DT or a vigilante left, which Blubb has claimed.
However, there is the case that DT wasn't even present in this game since vigilante wasn't present, we also had a miller/medic already as well. The rules state that not all roles are present, so this is really annoying now.
So we have 3 options:
Option 1: If your theory is correct DimmuKlok, then I would have to be the Mafia this whole time if Blubb is DT and you are vanilla townie. I think my actions to this date have given my alignment to be town, but even if this wasn't enough for you I refer you to this:
On March 14 2012 09:28 willz22912 wrote: If i was Mafia and I made that post saying Sufficiency was likely to get modkilled and wanted to lynch an innocent town, I would have called for it and pushed your death DimmuKlok, same with Maverick. That clears both of us if we were Mafia, since we both had a way to "win the game" just like you did, except ours was 100% and yours was entirely dependent on if Sufficiency was afk.
I'm fairly sure that Maverick would have went along with my vote if I decided to push you DimmuKlok, in fact he even posted so. So I had the opportunity to win if I were Mafia, Maverick has flipped green, so why didn't I do it?
Option 2: Blubbdavid is the Mafia, DimmuKlok isn't lying about being a vanilla town, and we have no DT at all. This option is a valid possibility to me and I weigh it's likelyhood at around 33%.
Option 3: DimmuKlok is the Mafia godfather, Blubb is really the DT and that is why DimmuKlok returned as vanilla town in the check. The more probable possibility to me at 66%.
We have 48 hours, so I'll try and find some time to look through the filters and really dig down. But for now, I propose myself as bait: I'm going to change my vote at the last hour of the deadline, but there is still a possibility that both of you decide to continue it and lynch me anyway. If you really think I'm Mafia, go ahead, but your decision here will have a great impact on what I decide.
I'm sad neither of you took my bait, I guess it was too obvious. + Show Spoiler +
On March 14 2012 11:56 willz22912 wrote: Alright, final vote time.
I know for myself I'm vanilla but wasn't sure of Mavericks role, now that he is vanilla town, then the only town role besides my vanilla is either a DT or a vigilante left, which Blubb has claimed.
However, there is the case that DT wasn't even present in this game since vigilante wasn't present, we also had a miller/medic already as well. The rules state that not all roles are present, so this is really annoying now.
So we have 3 options:
Option 1: If your theory is correct DimmuKlok, then I would have to be the Mafia this whole time if Blubb is DT and you are vanilla townie. I think my actions to this date have given my alignment to be town, but even if this wasn't enough for you I refer you to this:
On March 14 2012 09:28 willz22912 wrote: If i was Mafia and I made that post saying Sufficiency was likely to get modkilled and wanted to lynch an innocent town, I would have called for it and pushed your death DimmuKlok, same with Maverick. That clears both of us if we were Mafia, since we both had a way to "win the game" just like you did, except ours was 100% and yours was entirely dependent on if Sufficiency was afk.
I'm fairly sure that Maverick would have went along with my vote if I decided to push you DimmuKlok, in fact he even posted so. So I had the opportunity to win if I were Mafia, Maverick has flipped green, so why didn't I do it?
Option 2: Blubbdavid is the Mafia, DimmuKlok isn't lying about being a vanilla town, and we have no DT at all. This option is a valid possibility to me and I weigh it's likelyhood at around 33%.
Option 3: DimmuKlok is the Mafia godfather, Blubb is really the DT and that is why DimmuKlok returned as vanilla town in the check. The more probable possibility to me at 66%.
We have 48 hours, so I'll try and find some time to look through the filters and really dig down. But for now, I propose myself as bait: I'm going to change my vote at the last hour of the deadline, but there is still a possibility that both of you decide to continue it and lynch me anyway. If you really think I'm Mafia, go ahead, but your decision here will have a great impact on what I decide.
##Vote: Willz22912
Can either of you see the glaring flaw in my last post that should have been called out immediately? I was hoping one of you would and it would sway my opinion but none of you have. Please comment on this suspicious behavior!
Well I was going to go with the whole voting myself is completely pointless and doesn't do anything except incur more suspicion on me, but I think I meta-thought this through too much.
The situation seems to be a 1-1 split between Blubb and DimmuKlok, with me as the swing vote, I was hoping to create a situation where I wouldn't have to be swing vote and was a valid target, but I don't think either of you think I'm Mafia right?
Oh well, sorry for the confusion, we still have 27 hours so I'm still making my final decision. This is pretty stressful for a newbie in his first Mafia game ever ;p
Willz: Pro Town: -Active poster -Sharp poster -Somewhat consistent
Anti Town: -Questionable affair about Oto -Constantly apologizes about being a newb.
Dimmu: Pro Town: -Active poster -Mistrust everyone, calls out -Helpful vote action last day
Anti Town: -Fluffy posts -Is changing his suspicions everyday -Suffers from OMGUS syndrome -Questionable affair with Sufficiency
I think you both know who I am suspecting more, and who I want to lynch. Now it looks like I have to spend the rest of the day convincing willz why it is a good idea to lynch Dimmu. Well, I think that staying on your suspicions we had since early will help us win the game. I don't think that the town will gain anything with risk by lynching me.
Will obviously try to post more on why I think that Dimmu is scum, till then I will leave my vote on him (again). Or should I try to convince (both of) you that I am really town and DT?
Oh, and in unlikely case that willz is the scum, I will leave a pre-emptive "wp" here.
You came into this thread very strong with your analysis of our top suspects at the time, OtoshimonoU and Sufficiency. You chose to view OtoshimonoU as the more suspicious person at that time.
As stated you bring up DT and PR's the most, showing you are more experienced than most in a newbie game. If you were an experienced town, wouldn't you want to assert your experience and try and drive inexperienced townies towards the right lynches (this inexperience being me and Mav who are both first time Mafia players on TL) You are being way too passive in trying to convince me against DimmuKlok, why should my opinion be as important as yours if you are the more experienced player?
Regarding your claim as DT, your DT claims are consistent with your behavior, however I'd like to point out you never made a serious case against gunman in the open. Yes you could have had inside information based on your DT check, but you never elaborated on that, you only stayed on gunman because he made attacks on Rain who flipped green. When I made my counter-case against DimmuKlok at the same time you said you were going to stay on gunman but no elaboration on why except for "his fast push on Rainmaker seems suspicious" Do you have any response for this behavior except for "I did a check on him and that's why I knew he was Mafia?" Because yes, you personally could have known but if you didnt get enough people on the gunman vote then we would have lost this game since it was in ly-lo situation already.
You also have just written your views on me and DimmuKlok, and you say that his "Mistrust everyone, calls out" is a pro-town move. It may be pro-town for him personally, but he's never going to be able to gain any credibility when he has been consistently wrong. In that case, this is actually bad for him personally because it makes him such a good target in a situation like this where either of you are the real Mafia, and a 3rd person has to be the one to weigh in and choose.
You have ~4.5 hours to explain this behavior, hope you're around.
I forgot to mention the part where you potentially screwed town over by not changing your vote from DimmuKlok to Sufficiency when you specifically asked which person we were going after, and we responded 20 minutes later. Why ask at all if you're going to disregard anything we're going to say? If DimmuKlok didn't switch, and Sufficiency actually came back in time to not get modkilled, that would have been game for town. Pretty inexcusable behavior.
Adding on to that, that also throws your DT claim into question. There was really no need to throw in the DT claim at night when you knew you were not likely to be killed, it's verging on misinformation. The two main suspects that me and Maverick were debating between were you and DimmuKlok. If you were killed off during the night, the only suspect left would be the obvious one in DimmuKlok. Conversely DimmuKlok also would not have been killed off because then we would have focused on Blubbdavid, so neither of you dying was the only valid strategy a Mafia would have.
So I know I just made chain posts saying that I found you suspicious in many ways Blubbdavid, but at this point I'm going to just save myself the stress and vote DimmuKlok and follow Occam's Razor. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one, and it would be far more complex that you fake a DT claim then DimmuKlok just really being the Mafia godfather all along.
Of the two of you, DimmuKlok has made numerous wrong calls on many people not including Otoshimono, Sufficiency, Maverick, and myself. While it is okay to be suspicious of everyone in the beginning until you can feel out who is really town, this constant claiming of Mafia has only been to his detriment, and hiding behind his godfather ability to return as green is the only good explanation. At least you Blubbdavid have been consistent about who you suspect, and your DT claim is believable, and you have been by far the better town player of the two of you.
If you have been Mafia the whole time Blubbdavid, then gg wp.
I'm going to vote for Willz. Blubbs posting has been telling me he's town. What I find the most convincing is how he helped to get rid of gunman.
I was blinded by my case on Mav. I was so sure I had gotten it right, I had to rethink things after he came up town. The reason I brought it up when I did was because I truly thought the Suff lynch would cost us the game, and had to speak up.
I realize my posting style has made me the most suspicious target. As vanilla, my reads are the only things I can go on. I'm also not very important for the same reasons. I was trying to get as much information out there, as well as my reads out before I got killed off. I guess I always figured you didn't have to worry about looking suspicious as long as you really are innocent. I can see now that's not always the case.
I'd love to do a detailed case on why Willz is mafia, and why I'm not. Problem is it's very hard from my point of view. I've dug myself this hole, and he's successfully went undetected until now. He played mafia how it should be played, and I didn't. Blubb looks innocent to me, so Willz got my vote.
Well, this is my second mafia game I am playing in my life, the first one being the Kaller game I was playing parallely to this one. But it was to big for me and not suited for a newb, so I screwed up there. But I have looked into some other games before I started playing, so you could say that I am a bit more experienced.
To the gunman lynch: Yes, maybe I should have elaborated more, but seeing that there was a big bandwagon forming, I didn't see any reason to write more on him, it only could have caught attention from scum.
To the DT claim: Why not? It was the last night, and I thought it would make it pretty sure that I am town, so town would win 100%.
To the Suff lynch: I admit, I screwed up there and shouldn't have gone risky... Well, I guess it's ok now...
And it was fun to play the game with you guys, I hope we can play together again someday. And don't worry Dimmu, noone hates you (though you are mafia).
It was time for the final showdown between DimmuKlok and willz22912. Lord Zed had infultrated the town and his identity remained a mystery. blubbdavid was left to decide the fate of the town and the Power Rangers. After a day of debate, blubbdavid had come to a decision. DimmuKlok would hang to avenge the deaths of the fallen Rangers.
Thanks to everyone for playing. Those who put in the required amount of time and effort are definitely appreciated. Special thanks to the replacements.
Also, thanks to EchelonTee for co-hosting. I couldn't have done this without you and all your hard work.
Though I'm not going to lie.. that last couple posts by you Blubb really made me second guess what you had written... be glad you killed me that last night :b
As for Dim- I'm SO SORRY!!!! !!!!! !! !! ! ! ! !
@ Willz- I knew you were townie :D
I have a general question- why in the world did everyone trust me so much?! I'll be honest- halfway through I was really wishing I was mafia....
GG, I kinda had a feeling on Blubb lying, there were several inconsistencies, but Dimm switched back to being against me, so it was too late to try and convince him and would be too self-serving.
Oh well, was a fun learning experience, gl to those of you in the aperture science game as well, do us newbies proud~
Eh, gonzaw, I think town did okay for what we had to work with, did you see how many town people were modkilled for being inactive? Then again, the fact that Sufficiency was able to coast for 4 days before getting lynched is really bad by town.
Out of all of you who voted for OtoshimonoU, try and put yourself in his shoes sometime as an innocent townie with everyone against you, Sufficiency by far was the more scummy player but everyone bandwagons too easily (myself included) on the easy lynch to try and feel useful.
You were a godfather in a game with no DT also. (EchelonTee)
Its common practice, so people cant just see one role and infer another exists because of its existence. Its a form of punishing bad play (making assumptions with flimsy reasoning).
I can think of a couple games off hand where newbie towns have won. It largely comes down to town being active and not allowing mafia any control over the thread.
GG, I didn't read this game very thoroughly, but it looked interesting enough that I will come back and give it a look after I finish Aperture.
On March 16 2012 11:51 willz22912 wrote: Eh, gonzaw, I think town did okay for what we had to work with, did you see how many town people were modkilled for being inactive? Then again, the fact that Sufficiency was able to coast for 4 days before getting lynched is really bad by town.
Out of all of you who voted for OtoshimonoU, try and put yourself in his shoes sometime as an innocent townie with everyone against you, Sufficiency by far was the more scummy player but everyone bandwagons too easily (myself included) on the easy lynch to try and feel useful.
Well, I don't really know how town did because I didn't really read this game
if anyone wants questions on their play just ask in thread or PM. I'm not the best, but I can give some general, solid feedback. alternatively, pm kitaman7
On March 16 2012 11:36 Sbrubbles wrote: Putting in a miller when there is no DT is dirty, though, kitaman.
If there is no DT doesn't the miller just become a normal townie. Hell, the miller doesn't even know they're a miller so its existence makes no difference to the game because no-one (no DT) would be relying on them being scum. If you inferred there had to be a DT when a miller flips, well that is just bad play.
I think the reason scum are winning so many newbie games is that inactivity and "lurking" is used as a reason to lynch people. If most of the town is active it becomes much easier to identify scum. Townies who are scared to post are a real detriment, especially late game.
I'm surprised there aren't more lurker-vigs in Newbie games. Yes you are more likely to hit town than scum (almost guaranteed) but at least you aren't wasting a lynch on a lurker.
Newbie games by nature are going to be mafia favored.
The information gap between town and mafia cannot be closed as easily as it can in a non-newbie game, due to newer towns lacking the practice at extracting information and gauging reactions objectively.
I still like the newbie game format as it provides a safe place without insane mechanics, where first gamers can develop the fundamentals, but the statistics tell the tale. I can only think of two town victories in newbie games, compared to the half dozen or more scum wins.
Inactivity is an issue, but it does effect both sides.
I think the best way to balance the scales is to provide an experience similar to Student Mafia with dedicated coaches that are assigned to players (as opposed to telling new players to seek out their own teachers) and possibly even the smurfing of a more experienced player, to guide the town in the right direction, but not rule the town.
The problem with inactivity is I feel it is far more detrimental to town than scum. As scum even if you lose a member to a modkill that doesn't necessarily affect the rest of your team. As town lurky players look just like scum and so create lots of opportunities for scum to hide. There have been many games especially newbie ones where scum have hidden in plain sight because anyone who contributed was automatically town. I think mechanisms to deal with lurkers are important.
As for coaches it would be awesome if there was something like a Day 1 coach whose role was to poke and prod people. To play devil's advocate and point out the commonly used bad logic in new games. Then they disappear at the first lynch. Hopefully that provides real life experience of good scum hunting techniques and sets town up well for the rest of the game. They wouldn't necessarily push particular reads but point out weaknesses in logic and try and correct misunderstandings. Individual coaches don't really work because they can't provide useful information, only general themes.
Of course you could go all out and have a coach for each player who is allowed to provide their opinions of the reads to their protege. A sort of semi-team-melee setup but that is probably going a bit far.
This was my first game, and though the inactivity was kind of annoying, I REALLY liked it.. so much that I signed up for another game!
It is a GREAT way for me to spend time at my pretty boring job- and I love being able to analyze what people are typing and try to 'solve' things... any general tips for me? I felt like I was going a bit overboard a couple times and jumping to conclusions WAY too much... I also think I just had a lot of free time to really dig into everyone's posts....
On March 16 2012 11:36 Sbrubbles wrote: Putting in a miller when there is no DT is dirty, though, kitaman.
If there is no DT doesn't the miller just become a normal townie. Hell, the miller doesn't even know they're a miller so its existence makes no difference to the game because no-one (no DT) would be relying on them being scum. If you inferred there had to be a DT when a miller flips, well that is just bad play.
I think the reason scum are winning so many newbie games is that inactivity and "lurking" is used as a reason to lynch people. If most of the town is active it becomes much easier to identify scum. Townies who are scared to post are a real detriment, especially late game.
I'm surprised there aren't more lurker-vigs in Newbie games. Yes you are more likely to hit town than scum (almost guaranteed) but at least you aren't wasting a lynch on a lurker.
Lighten up! It was my first forum-based game here on TL. I don't know what passes as "normal" here. It's one thing to not know if a role exists. It's another thing completely for a host to mislead as to the existence of a role.
I'm not saying it's good/bad fun/not fun, I'm just saying that the host purposefully throwing in a wrench in there simply wasn't on the radar for me, and mistrusting the host isn't obvious for first-timers.
Also, I'm saying this from the viewpoint of a spectator. The DT point didn't actually matter while I was alive.
On March 16 2012 11:36 Sbrubbles wrote: Putting in a miller when there is no DT is dirty, though, kitaman.
If there is no DT doesn't the miller just become a normal townie. Hell, the miller doesn't even know they're a miller so its existence makes no difference to the game because no-one (no DT) would be relying on them being scum. If you inferred there had to be a DT when a miller flips, well that is just bad play.
I think the reason scum are winning so many newbie games is that inactivity and "lurking" is used as a reason to lynch people. If most of the town is active it becomes much easier to identify scum. Townies who are scared to post are a real detriment, especially late game.
I'm surprised there aren't more lurker-vigs in Newbie games. Yes you are more likely to hit town than scum (almost guaranteed) but at least you aren't wasting a lynch on a lurker.
Lighten up! It was my first forum-based game here on TL. I don't know what passes as "normal" here. It's one thing to not know if a role exists. It's another thing completely for a host to mislead as to the existence of a role.1
I'm not saying it's good/bad fun/not fun, I'm just saying that the host purposefully throwing in a wrench in there simply wasn't on the radar for me, and mistrusting the host isn't obvious for first-timers.
Also, I'm saying this from the viewpoint of a spectator. The DT point didn't actually matter while I was alive.
Are you angry son? You're making a big call right here 1. I don't see how Kitaman mislead you at all. How exactly was he throwing in a wrench by adding a miller? To me it seems the roles were randomed. The only way Kitaman could have mislead you is if people assumed there was a DT when you flipped. This relies on town making assumptions they shouldn't make and has nothing to do with Kitaman. Can you explain your gripe a bit better?
On March 16 2012 11:36 Sbrubbles wrote: Putting in a miller when there is no DT is dirty, though, kitaman.
If there is no DT doesn't the miller just become a normal townie. Hell, the miller doesn't even know they're a miller so its existence makes no difference to the game because no-one (no DT) would be relying on them being scum. If you inferred there had to be a DT when a miller flips, well that is just bad play.
I think the reason scum are winning so many newbie games is that inactivity and "lurking" is used as a reason to lynch people. If most of the town is active it becomes much easier to identify scum. Townies who are scared to post are a real detriment, especially late game.
I'm surprised there aren't more lurker-vigs in Newbie games. Yes you are more likely to hit town than scum (almost guaranteed) but at least you aren't wasting a lynch on a lurker.
Lighten up! It was my first forum-based game here on TL. I don't know what passes as "normal" here. It's one thing to not know if a role exists. It's another thing completely for a host to mislead as to the existence of a role.1
I'm not saying it's good/bad fun/not fun, I'm just saying that the host purposefully throwing in a wrench in there simply wasn't on the radar for me, and mistrusting the host isn't obvious for first-timers.
Also, I'm saying this from the viewpoint of a spectator. The DT point didn't actually matter while I was alive.
Are you angry son? You're making a big call right here 1. I don't see how Kitaman mislead you at all. How exactly was he throwing in a wrench by adding a miller? To me it seems the roles were randomed. The only way Kitaman could have mislead you is if people assumed there was a DT when you flipped. This relies on town making assumptions they shouldn't make and has nothing to do with Kitaman. Can you explain your gripe a bit better?
It is clear now that the host made to miller in order to punish those who would see the miller flip as validation for the existence of a DT.
To believe things exists for a purpose is normal in games, but now I understand it is not so in this TL forum mafia game. The miller exists to interfere with the DT, so there is no purpose in him existing without a DT, except as a tool for host to confuse the players who make these kinds of assumptions.
On March 16 2012 11:36 Sbrubbles wrote: Putting in a miller when there is no DT is dirty, though, kitaman.
If there is no DT doesn't the miller just become a normal townie. Hell, the miller doesn't even know they're a miller so its existence makes no difference to the game because no-one (no DT) would be relying on them being scum. If you inferred there had to be a DT when a miller flips, well that is just bad play.
I think the reason scum are winning so many newbie games is that inactivity and "lurking" is used as a reason to lynch people. If most of the town is active it becomes much easier to identify scum. Townies who are scared to post are a real detriment, especially late game.
I'm surprised there aren't more lurker-vigs in Newbie games. Yes you are more likely to hit town than scum (almost guaranteed) but at least you aren't wasting a lynch on a lurker.
Lighten up! It was my first forum-based game here on TL. I don't know what passes as "normal" here. It's one thing to not know if a role exists. It's another thing completely for a host to mislead as to the existence of a role.1
I'm not saying it's good/bad fun/not fun, I'm just saying that the host purposefully throwing in a wrench in there simply wasn't on the radar for me, and mistrusting the host isn't obvious for first-timers.
Also, I'm saying this from the viewpoint of a spectator. The DT point didn't actually matter while I was alive.
Are you angry son? You're making a big call right here 1. I don't see how Kitaman mislead you at all. How exactly was he throwing in a wrench by adding a miller? To me it seems the roles were randomed. The only way Kitaman could have mislead you is if people assumed there was a DT when you flipped. This relies on town making assumptions they shouldn't make and has nothing to do with Kitaman. Can you explain your gripe a bit better?
It is clear now that the host made to miller in order to punish those who would see the miller flip as validation for the existence of a DT.
To believe things exists for a purpose is normal in games, but now I understand it is not so in this TL forum mafia game. The miller exists to interfere with the DT, so there is no purpose in him existing without a DT, except as a tool for host to confuse the players who make these kinds of assumptions.
Ok, fair enough then. I agree that a miller in a newbie game is rare. I still think the roles were randomed and that it shouldn't have an effect on your play. If nothing else you have learned a valuable lesson, don't assume unreasonable stuff. I have played/read games with framers but no DT and similarly roleblockers with no blue roles. They are there to make it harder for both mafia and town to guess what roles exist in an open setup. Sure it makes the game a little harder but it also punishes bad play. If you are learning, that is what you want.
I hope this doesn't turn you off from playing here.
Bit disappointed that town didn't win this one. Dimmu made a mistake at the end there: Blubb reported Willz as green, and given that Willz subbed in for a lurker on night 1 he was very unlikely to be a godfather (scum pick the godfather). Therefore Dimmu should have been almost 100% sure who the last mafia was.
Also the DT claim was worse than useless for town and therefore extremely suspicious.
I felt it was a pretty good town performance to get it down to the wire with so many modkills and no blue help though. Practically a moral victory
On March 16 2012 11:36 Sbrubbles wrote: Putting in a miller when there is no DT is dirty, though, kitaman.
If there is no DT doesn't the miller just become a normal townie. Hell, the miller doesn't even know they're a miller so its existence makes no difference to the game because no-one (no DT) would be relying on them being scum. If you inferred there had to be a DT when a miller flips, well that is just bad play.
I think the reason scum are winning so many newbie games is that inactivity and "lurking" is used as a reason to lynch people. If most of the town is active it becomes much easier to identify scum. Townies who are scared to post are a real detriment, especially late game.
I'm surprised there aren't more lurker-vigs in Newbie games. Yes you are more likely to hit town than scum (almost guaranteed) but at least you aren't wasting a lynch on a lurker.
Lighten up! It was my first forum-based game here on TL. I don't know what passes as "normal" here. It's one thing to not know if a role exists. It's another thing completely for a host to mislead as to the existence of a role.1
I'm not saying it's good/bad fun/not fun, I'm just saying that the host purposefully throwing in a wrench in there simply wasn't on the radar for me, and mistrusting the host isn't obvious for first-timers.
Also, I'm saying this from the viewpoint of a spectator. The DT point didn't actually matter while I was alive.
Are you angry son? You're making a big call right here 1. I don't see how Kitaman mislead you at all. How exactly was he throwing in a wrench by adding a miller? To me it seems the roles were randomed. The only way Kitaman could have mislead you is if people assumed there was a DT when you flipped. This relies on town making assumptions they shouldn't make and has nothing to do with Kitaman. Can you explain your gripe a bit better?
It is clear now that the host made to miller in order to punish those who would see the miller flip as validation for the existence of a DT.
To believe things exists for a purpose is normal in games, but now I understand it is not so in this TL forum mafia game. The miller exists to interfere with the DT, so there is no purpose in him existing without a DT, except as a tool for host to confuse the players who make these kinds of assumptions.
Ok, fair enough then. I agree that a miller in a newbie game is rare. I still think the roles were randomed and that it shouldn't have an effect on your play. If nothing else you have learned a valuable lesson, don't assume unreasonable stuff. I have played/read games with framers but no DT and similarly roleblockers with no blue roles. They are there to make it harder for both mafia and town to guess what roles exist in an open setup. Sure it makes the game a little harder but it also punishes bad play. If you are learning, that is what you want.
I hope this doesn't turn you off from playing here.
No way, I'm sticking around for at least 1 or 2 bigger games . And yeah, I'll try to have a different outlook next time.
I made a lot of mistakes, none of which mattered too much. Probably not letting town lynch Otoshi on day 1 and calling too much attention to myself (knowing I was a power role) were the only ones that made a difference, I think. Also, my misread on Dimmu might have influenced the final day (though I was long dead).
On March 16 2012 13:45 jaj22 wrote: Bit disappointed that town didn't win this one. Dimmu made a mistake at the end there: Blubb reported Willz as green, and given that Willz subbed in for a lurker on night 1 he was very unlikely to be a godfather (scum pick the godfather). Therefore Dimmu should have been almost 100% sure who the last mafia was.
Also the DT claim was worse than useless for town and therefore extremely suspicious.
I felt it was a pretty good town performance to get it down to the wire with so many modkills and no blue help though. Practically a moral victory
I thought the Godfather role was RNGed at the start of the game sometimes...?
I've seen plenty of games outside TL (and some Insane/Themed ones in here too) where the GF is a normal role given to a specific mafia with their role PM.
Maybe there are Normal games with it too. Also, I would say that the GF described in newbie games is this one as well.
I had thought that the GF was chosen before the end of Day 1, but perhaps different hosts handle it differently. It's probably one of those parameters that we shouldn't just assume, like the presence of a DT in this game.
I skimming through the obs QT I checked that I acted quite alike a DT. Why is that? I'd like to know because I don't want to get killed as town just because I looked blueish.
I don't think i'll be able to play in some months though
On March 16 2012 12:47 Maverick32x wrote: This was my first game, and though the inactivity was kind of annoying, I REALLY liked it.. so much that I signed up for another game!
It is a GREAT way for me to spend time at my pretty boring job- and I love being able to analyze what people are typing and try to 'solve' things... any general tips for me? I felt like I was going a bit overboard a couple times and jumping to conclusions WAY too much... I also think I just had a lot of free time to really dig into everyone's posts....
^^This this this. Hope to see you in a future game maverick. GG town. I thought mafia would flawless victory, but it all came down to one vote! I thought things were really weird at the end cause if Dim was mafia I don't think he woulda killed maverick to bring more suspicion to himself. Well played by Blubbdavid, good fake DT claim. Fun times, though you scum killed me first day.
On March 16 2012 12:47 Maverick32x wrote: This was my first game, and though the inactivity was kind of annoying, I REALLY liked it.. so much that I signed up for another game!
It is a GREAT way for me to spend time at my pretty boring job- and I love being able to analyze what people are typing and try to 'solve' things... any general tips for me? I felt like I was going a bit overboard a couple times and jumping to conclusions WAY too much... I also think I just had a lot of free time to really dig into everyone's posts....
^^This this this. Hope to see you in a future game maverick. GG town. I thought mafia would flawless victory, but it all came down to one vote! I thought things were really weird at the end cause if Dim was mafia I don't think he woulda killed maverick to bring more suspicion to himself. Well played by Blubbdavid, good fake DT claim. Fun times, though you scum killed me first day.
On March 16 2012 19:37 trackd00r wrote: GG mafia. Well played.
I skimming through the obs QT I checked that I acted quite alike a DT. Why is that? I'd like to know because I don't want to get killed as town just because I looked blueish.
I don't think i'll be able to play in some months though
trackd00r; if you're making good reads and looking like a DT, it is technially GOOD that you are soaking up shots; in larger games, this'll let the blue roles slip by and not get shot. Getting shot earlier is a compliment to your ability, and hopefully if there are solid medics around then u will be able to live on. this was a large improvement over your last game, i hope you know.
This game was a pretty classic state of there being not enough activity, and of the activity there were a lot of HUGE GIANT posts, which made it very hard to make clear analysis. Making large informed posts can be good, but if you don't focus your thoughts, it is too hard to make your points heard and to be clear. If you want to push someone, push them; you don't need to make cases on every single person who slightly annoys you.
blubb played well, but people should've been suspicious when he said "i pushed gunman lynch forward after getting red read on him", but if you look at his posts he didn't really push it that much; he just put his vote their and put a few lines on them. the people pushing reads stuck their necks out a lot more; blubb kind of coasted. not taking anything away from his game; he played well and utlizied the tools in front of him to achieve the win.
EPT
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/YpvJt.png)
![[image loading]](http://www.rangercentral.com/database/1993_mightymorphin/images/mmpr-m1-pudgypig.jpg)
, I'll be back in 3 hours.
![[image loading]](http://www.rangercentral.com/database/1992_zyuranger/images/zyu-vi-palace.jpg)
He isn't very useful and is hindering even if he were town.![[image loading]](http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-unLLP1lo_Vg/TbBVQMy4JpI/AAAAAAAAAqU/UvP3N9yvHHs/s640/Power+Rangers+Dino+Thunder+Red+Dino+Ranger+Fat.jpg)
