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trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 06 2012 23:36 GMT
#311
My following thoughts are regarding Gunman103.

This analysis is not focused in wording, but rather the way he weird way the approaches and lynches and his flippy/floppy behavior in general.

I need to say that Gunman has been the least innovative player in the thread until the last post he made. By the same standards, he has been the most bandwagony as well.

His first posts in the game are the usual fluffy lynch policies stuff. I won't bother in covering that.

Do you remember the sniped vote incident?

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 03 2012 08:35 Mementoss wrote:
Gunman, did you honestly think this would go un-noticed?

Show nested quote +
On March 03 2012 08:03 gunman103 wrote:
##Vote: Tiystus


I thought I would go eat and give you time to give some time to give reasoning in the thread. Its been a half hour. You'd think you would post reasoning before running straight to the vote thread. You do realize voting without trying to at least convince your case/state your opinions in the thread is very suspicious play? The below is hardly reasoning.

Show nested quote +
On March 02 2012 11:54 gunman103 wrote:
#1 Tiystus- He was fine with randomly killing someone early on but then changes his mind later. Seems like one of his scum friends told him what to say. He also never seems to make a decision on anything.
.


This vote seems very selfish, and mafia motivated. Give some more reasoning behind this choice and why is this vote a better vote than OtoshmonoU? Why didn't you like the OtoshmonoU evidence that was given by a couple different people in this thread. It seems like you wanted vote without bringing attention to yourself, and to split the town into a no-lynch situation.

Show nested quote +
On March 01 2012 14:11 gunman103 wrote:
DimmuKlok is right. If we have to do a lynch without a strong case, lynching a lurker would be more effective than a RL seeing as how most mafia are lurkers. Also, lets wait before we decide to lynch someone because we don't need to worry about it right now.


You even said it yourself, if your going to lynch you need a strong case. What is your strong case in this situation? Later in the above quote you said lynching a lurker would be better than lynching without a strong case, however your reasoning behind voting tiystus didn't mention anything about you thinking him, because he was a lurker. And if you were to vote for a lurker, wouldn't Beorn be a better case as he has the least amount of posts, and has given no kind of read yet?

Your move gunman.



His reply:

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 03 2012 08:56 gunman103 wrote:

Alright, I'll change my vote. I suppose I didn't really get a good enough read on oto and focused to much on lurkers. Now that I look at his posts, he does look suspicious. I suppose I thought that lynching a lurker would be better than killing a potential town because lynching a lurker wouldn't actually hurt us all that much because they don't add anything to the discussion, where as if we he turns out to be town, we wouldn't get his input.


What is really weird here is that he didn't even tried to make any justification regarding that vote to Tiystus. He was practically overwhelmed by mementoss with a simple ''Alright, I'll change my vote.'' This is just wrong. As a town player you need to push your reads and make a clear decision.

His read on Tiystus then was weak. He claimed that he was focusing too much on lurkers. Tiystus right then was NOT the biggest lurker so far. Oto was actually worse than Tiy. He even says that he didn't really took a look to Oto. If I remember, you said you would focus on the lurkers and you completely missed Oto case. That could mean that you either did not follow the thread correctly or you knew oto was town, if you know what I mean.

I asked him for an explanation why he wants to lynch oto:

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 03 2012 09:50 gunman103 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2012 09:10 trackd00r wrote:
Wow, nice find mementoss.

Gunman, now tell us why you want to lynch oto. You haven't given a reason why yet.


The main reason I am voting for him is because of what he said in this post
+ Show Spoiler +
Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs . I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts.


"Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs"

It seems to me like he was trying to turn the town against the ones who were directing and keeping the town on track at the time. It seemed like he was trying to destabilize the whole town by getting rid of Maverick and Mementoss, allowing the mafia to just lurk as we fought among ourselves.

"I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts."

It seems as though he is defending his mafia friends using the argument that they are new and will naturally stay quiet, a weak argument imo. Even if he is town, I don't follow his logic because lurkers are almost always bad and usually shouldn't be tolerated because they add nothing to the game.


Look how unsure is he of his actions. Why wasn't he so wishy/washy when he attempted to lynch Tiystus? I need to add that this reasoning was exactly the same as Dimmuklok and I gave. These arguments were loosely based on ours. This is not contributing, is bandwagoning.

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 02 2012 12:59 gunman103 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2012 12:45 Sufficiency wrote:
I say we lynch OtoshimonoU or gunman103

Can you at least give us a reason for wanting to lynch me and Oto?


Here he called out Sufficiency. He never pressured him again after that.

On March 04 2012 10:43 gunman103 wrote:
I FoS Oto for the reasons I said in my earlier post. Also, he was very suspicious of maverick and mementoss, but didn't vote. It could be that he is town but just forgot, but that's doubtful seeing as how everyone was talking about it. It's more likely that he chose not to vote. He has also not given an excuse or reason to why he didn't vote. I'm also keeping an eye on bubbles. He also was very defensive of oto and agreed with him about suspecting maverick (which no one else did). If we lynch one, then the other will most likely be the same alignment.


Now he says then he is keeping an eye on bubbles. Zero reads/analysis/cases as well

But this is the post that kinda blew me away:


On March 06 2012 13:40 gunman103 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2012 11:41 Maverick32x wrote:
So I'll stick to my theory that Sbrubbles and Sufficiency are probably not mafia based on their opportunity to kill Oto on the first night and passing it up.. that leaves:

trackd00r
Rainmaker5
Maverick32x
DimmuKlok
gunman103

As some of our *active* possible culprits...Obviously the lurkers make it difficult... but there's some thoughts!!

Out of all of the people you listed, Rainmaker is definetly most suspicious and the most likely to be scum. I propose that we lynch rainmaker when day 3 comes around. Even if he is town, which he probably isn't, what are we really going to lose? A useless lurker who hasn't posted anything in almost 3 real life days, who also promised an analysis that never came. I really doubt that trackdoor and maverick are scum. If we lynched either of them, it would be a loss for all of us. It is possible that dimmuklok is scum, but again, it's doubtful compared to rainmaker. As for me, make up your own mind, but I think rainmaker should certainly be the next person to look hard at.


1) They very fast and openly willing way of him trying to push a lynch, compared with his previous 'accusations'. He tries to look so, but so confident trying to push this lynch. And again, me and other players already started being suspicious of him. Again, repeating the same ideas we have made.

2) Why didn't he notice that bubbles weren't on that list when he actually in the past he wanted to keep an eye on him?

3) He says that Dimmuklok could be scum, but the justification he uses is to retract his fact is rain case. He didn't even bothered to say why does he looks scummy. Instead, jumped straight out to Rain.

So, to sum it up, gunman has been really uncooperative. He doesn't push out his suspicions. He throws off names instead and jump in what's hot.

This case can be supported with the fact of Mementoss death. His previous suspicions on Gum might have triggered the alarm to mafia, rather and his activity.

---------------------------------------------------

I'm reading Willz case now. Sorry If I took too long posting this anyways. Damn you homework...
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 08 2012 00:59 GMT
#335
We are now on a MYLO situation (if we mislynch we lose). This is my opinion about the situation right now.

I think we have to push a lurker lynch this day. And when I talk about lurker, I'm thinking about Gunman103, Pablols or Sufficiency. There is a good chance that 1 or maybe 2 players are scum, specially Gum or Pablo.

This is the reasoning behind it:

1) Look how we are now. Everyone points finger in different players. Maverick posts updated reports. Blubb pressures some players. Willz and Dimmu accusing each other. We are now in a town crisis. This leads to the idea that we are ultimately going to kill ourselves, and mafia just lurking back to see our slow death. This is what they have been doing all this time. If there was more than one active poster in the game by now, chances are that they want push a lynch in an easy target and just win the game right away. It's true to say that they might wait any longer to make this decision (since trying to risk the might end up losing 1 out of 3 mafia is pretty much a bad shot for them). The difference is that they can't do that because I don't see anything clear of any of the suspicious players. They are still laying back to see our own death.

2) These are the two players that are not having any attention by this time. We, as town, are ignoring him completely. In the situation we are now, there are probably two regular mafia posters who want to confuse us further more and the other one is not getting into the spotlight.

3) Any other case with the exception of Oto's case did not trigger any strong response so far. This is supported by the enormous lurking these last days. Now, there has been some of action, which I'll comment on soon.


Now @Willz. I actually like your case on Dimmuklok. The idea that he is using Mementoss as a justification card for everything is very convincing. I think I'm going to take a closer look on him than I did before.

Something I really disliked about him now was the way he took off all the pressure of you when he responded to your defense. I don't get why is he dropping the suspicion.

I have so many thoughts going around my head right now. I'll try to post again before I go to sleep.
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 08 2012 01:20 GMT
#337
In the other hand, I think Dimmu's case against Willz is pretty bad.

+ Show Spoiler +
He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post.

Show nested quote +
On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote:
Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information.

He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this:

Show nested quote +
On March 06 2012 08:12 willz22912 wrote:
Okay, took a look at the responses.

We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active.

I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU...

I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much.

That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it.



This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of...


Show nested quote +
On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote:
Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information.

I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake.



This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information.


All this ''information'' drama or pseudo contradiction that Dimmu is taking apart is rather unconvincing. Willz was sure that we wouldn't get any information off Oto's lynch. And then, he later say that we might get information because the lynch was pretty much set and he just hoped for the best. I just think his analysis that Dimmu made was nothing to bark about.

Also, I dislike his logic: Just because he wasn't 100% sure on Oto's case doesn't mean that he is mafia, or at least that's not how we should try to hunt down mafia this game.

Dimmuklok case doesn't have much substance. Now, his recent call to Pablols might see that he is trying to dig the other way and finding a path to push the killing blow to us, another mislynch.

There is like 0 interaction between Gunman and Dimmu. I think we might find a scummy couple here.

I repeat, I find weird that Dimmu has dropped the pressure onto Willz.
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 09 2012 00:37 GMT
#350
This is going to end either quite good, or horribly bad.

I'm voting for Gunman103. I already gave a read on him. At this point is pretty much him or a no-lynch...

Even if gunman, sufficiency or pablols flip town, their play was indeed a very deep punch for all us as town. I mean, if you are going to play a mafia game, please at least try to invest some time on it :/

+ Show Spoiler +
I just hope that my vote announcement is a worthy thing to post since I hit zealot icon with it. Please, let it be!!
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 09 2012 01:21 GMT
#353
Look who we have here now...


On March 09 2012 10:01 Sufficiency wrote:
##Vote: Gunman103


Sufficiency, why are you doing this? You saved yourself of barely getting modkilled if the game continues on. You are scum in front of my eyes.

Please, explain.

Town, if you want to win this game, lynch this guy if he doesn't come with a response.
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 09 2012 01:30 GMT
#356
Guys, don't you realize that Sufficiency went literally 2 days inactive, and no appears out of nowhere and cast his vote just 1 hour before the deadline?

Doesn't it scream scum to you?

I'm giving you one more chance. Vote sufficiency.
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 09 2012 01:43 GMT
#360
Blubb, I'm completely serious.

Don't you believe the facts? Don't you find scummy that Sufficiency went in minutes before a lynch and just voted, ignoring completely any current discussion?

You are making no sense to me now. Neither Sufficiency is.

Mave, Willz, please. The evidence is right in front of your eyes. Change your vote
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 09 2012 01:59 GMT
#364
I'll try to give more explanations later, but I'll change my vote again.
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 09 2012 02:09 GMT
#366
Wooow.... Nice.

Well, whoops sorry about that situation last pages. I just got out of control.

Going to sleep now.
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 09 2012 18:26 GMT
#375
I'm giving my explanation.

In the reality, I wanted to lynch Gunman103.

I never dropped my suspicion of him. I knew that he was going to be lynched, since already had reached a majority and nothing really could prevent to turn it back. Now, with a lynch which I was very sure about, I decided to check the reaction of mafia players when I bring up another candidate. The ninja vote that Sufficiency made just 1 hour before the deadline was the perfect situation to see if Mafia is bussing Gun, or just let him die without putting themselves in the spotlight.

Apparently, Maverick , Pablols and Willz seemed to not be around at that time, so it left me with Blubb and Dimu. I presented some evidence that might be tempting enough for them, If they were, to switch and provoke another no lynch, and therefore likely claim their victory at night. After checking out what reactions they did say, I switched my vote back to Gun just one minute before the deadline to avoid and tension or the threat of a massive scum vote switch.

As Gunman flipped scum, I can safely now say that either Blubbdavid or Dimmuklok is a confirmed townie. None of them tried to switch a vote in an almost 100% safe lynch to prevent the death of a scum mate.

This is mostly speculation, but in an analytic fashion:

Given A is town and B is Mafia:

1) If A attempted to switch to gunman, B would quickly switch as well.

2) If B tried to switch, A would analyse the situation or asked me further explanations before switching its vote.

Now, if both players were Mafia and switched, me and them would directly fall down into the spotlight and one of us would be a totally potential lynch candidate day 4. And then they would easily turn against me and push out the mislynch. This case is very unlikely to happen, since chances to getting mafia lynched were 2/3, very risky IMO. But given situation (1), this is way more easier to pull off, since here is 2 town / 1 scum.

But let's get back to what actually happen. None of the players switched. Why? Because one of them doing so would make so obvious that he was protecting his scum mate. In the other hand, I don't see the point why if they both were mafia, didn't prevent the scum lynch, since together that was way less riskier and more justifiable to a certain degree.

Imagine both Dim and Blubb were scum. They were obviously coordinating their moves and waiting for the deadline with high nerves. It's safe to assume they were checking the voting thread for all that time. Wouldn't the completely Sufficiency vote caught their attention and see that as a good chance to save Gum? (please note: Even if sufficiency is scum or town, all would have ended in a no lynch if switched).

Now imagine of them as Scum. Risky move to make? Hell yes. I took the initiative and checked what moves they show, to see if they continue disguising themselves as townies or go ahead and make the big push to win.

That's some of the analysis and predictions I could make about their behavior. One of them is town, the other, scum.

Anyways, Sufficiency play is one of the most intriguing I've ever seen in my time at TL mafia.

I'll give my analysis and more information later into the night so my actions are not an influence to mafia's next target.
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 09 2012 23:39 GMT
#391
I see that I confused a lot of people here with my 'investigation' in a way.

I would like to apologize that I was an obstacle to town. I messed up with the timings and I admit it was too risky with my intentions, plus at any moment I could just had my internet not working by the time of the deadline and screw up everything, who knows...

But I'll admit that some information might be useful in the future.

@ Dimmuklok:

On March 10 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote:
Please vote for me if you think I'm mafia. If you're all willing to throw the game away on such a stupid idea, then I'm not going to put in the effort to help this town.


Hey, If you are actually town, don't drop the towel now. Your last post seems like you are just interesting or unwilling to help. I don't know if you directed this to all of us or just me, but this is the worst time where you could surrender.

@Willz: So you say that blubb leans town because he defended you and evaluated your case against Dimmu. What about his behavior towards everyone in general?
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
March 11 2012 02:55 GMT
#406
GG

Go town! Win this game!
''They put signs, but I can't read''
trackd00r
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Chile284 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-03-16 10:38:10
March 16 2012 10:37 GMT
#520
GG mafia. Well played.

I skimming through the obs QT I checked that I acted quite alike a DT. Why is that? I'd like to know because I don't want to get killed as town just because I looked blueish.

I don't think i'll be able to play in some months though
''They put signs, but I can't read''
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