EPTSchool is coming up soon and I don't think I'll be able to play for some time later. So, I'm giving it a shot.
2nd game btw.
Newbie Mini Mafia V
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trackd00r
Chile284 Posts
School is coming up soon and I don't think I'll be able to play for some time later. So, I'm giving it a shot. 2nd game btw. | ||
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This is my second game on this forums. My previous game was Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII. To be very honest, I played pretty bad that game T_T and I hope I can play better in this one. You can take a look and check my meta if you wish. I don't mind. The first lynch is very hard to achieve successfully due to the limited information we have at this moment. The most important thing at this phase of the game is to stay active. Usually, the mafia are able to push out a Townie lynch in Day 1 because inactive or lurkish players don't follow the rhythm of the thread and are prone to make unclear reads and staying out of contributing substantially. Therefore, they are rendered as uncooperative. Plus, they might not have the chance to defend themselves and that pretty much seals their lynch. We obviously don't want this situation to happen, so please be active. Try to post as much good content as you can. This means that you shouldn't post one liners or random fluff to clutter up the thread. Mafia is going to have an easy time hiding if we miss the direction of our goal, which is to lynch scum. This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage. Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent. About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2. I'll be on the thread for about an hour or so today. It seems that we don't have a wide variation of Time zones, so hopefully all of us can be discussing at the same time. | ||
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By the way, that's the kind of observation we need Maverick. I appreciate that. I just hope we won't have many inactive players the following hours. | ||
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Going to bed now. See you in about 9 hours. | ||
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On March 01 2012 23:13 Mementoss wrote: First game here, so maybe I don't understand completely whats going on. But i'm pretty sure Random Lynch isn't the solution.. We really have barely any information to go off of other than the people that support Random Lynching, vs the people that oppose the Random Lynch. Additionally, we can look at the way in which the people are either stating their opinion on this discussion, or rather pushing their opinion on the rest of the town. I am opposed to the general idea of the Random Lynch, it is highly risky, there will be one of us leaving no matter what. So that will put us at 8-3. -->73% Chance we get a townie, now I can see the logic for a Random Lynch, but not in this circumstance. Maybe if it was 50/50. I would say the generally, the people pushing for the Random Lynch, not just stating they agree, but saying things such as its required, or it would be stupid not to are scum. Also I am generally confused with trackd00rs play. He is the first to be active and brings up the idea of the random lynch. He pushes it by saying we lose if we don't get a good lynch early. He also pushes his "innocence" by showing his experience in play, and saying he's bad at the game (not a threat). His back and forth opinions, are possibly of a liar, or someone set to confuse the town. Lets analyze some of his filter here. + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 11:51 trackd00r wrote: This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage. Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent. About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2. ^^ Here trackd00r is all about the Random Lynch, it was his idea of course hes with it. + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 13:10 trackd00r wrote: Suffciency, If you are willing to random lynch anyone, which player it would be? I hardly see a point of RL someone later on this day because we already might have better reads in that moment. If you want to take this action, throw a name by now. I don't really like the idea though. ^^ Here trackd00r is all opposed to the Random Lynch. What is he trying to do here. He's not helping the gathering of information, hes keeping the debate of the Random Lynch alive, rather than actually looking for helpful information. Killing more of the towns time. Thats my thoughts anyways. @Memetoss: You are misinterpreting my words. In that post I never mentioned that I was in favor of a random lynch. By no means I was trying to push one. I just said that I don't want a no-lynch because we will lack of information later on. That doesn't imply that I'm giving priority to a random lynch. @Marverick: I appreciate your activity, but I need to say that making those kind of probability calculations are not really worth it IMO. It will be barely of any use later, as we are trying to not lynch someone just because of the sake of doing it. The reason why I don't like a random lynch it's because it's likely to be mafia play. Targeting someone randomly pretty much sets the fuse to chaos and instability in the thread, and then scum they can freely fall back. That's what we need to avoid. That's what I have to say at the moment. We shouldn't be talking about lynch policies too long. I'll try to post some reads later. | ||
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I can't get solid reads because there haven't any substantial situations to study here. The only exception is Sufficiency little pressure and FoS and that would be all. We need to keep up with the discussion. If not, this lynch will be a mess. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. Ok, I don't know if the bolded word is a scumslip or a newbie mistake. The second options is the most likely, but these details are the ones we should look for with the little information we have. | ||
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On March 02 2012 05:41 OtoshimonoU wrote: FYI, no word in my sentence is in Bold. I also did say I needed to go to sleep and I had school. This is exactly what I meant when suspicion is already cast upon people that don't post on first days whether due to not knowing it had begun or whatever other reason (like me) I know you didn't bold that part. I took it out and post it as a quote. What I wanted to point out is that you were refereing to the town as 'them'. If you use that conjugation, it could mean that you are mafia addressing to town. In that moment, I thought it might be probably a newbie mistake. Now you are defending yourself in a quite weird way: On March 02 2012 05:58 OtoshimonoU wrote: I'm supposed to post content over a random first day lynch? I said that in my defense because someone had attacked me for not posting overnight. I tend not to droll on and on about the same point over and over again unlike others. I didn't attack you because of your inactivity, I pointed you because you didn't contribute that much in that moment compared to other people like friedchicken or maverick. You don't really want to point fingers, or to take the lead of the opinions. It looks like you are just checking the thread. What do you think about the Sufficiency situation? Or Pablols? Getting away with one liners might be a more than enough justification of newbiness in an active mafia game, but doing it now leaves you more exposed. Even when you defended yourself, you didn't touch any other of the issues present here. That's why I'm getting more suspicious of your actions. You said you don't tend to to kick the same point over and over. You don't do it because you haven't posted substantially yet, or at least you don't appear to. It's like saying that you don't get bad grades on a certain class because you don't attend it. If you are town, prove it by taking a more active role. More posts coming up. | ||
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For one part, I think that his defense was pretty spontaneous. He doesn't recognize any contradiction in those quotes, and neither do I. I think you might be pushing too hard checking for any word that could be opposed to another. Those contradictions that mementoss explained were taken from incomplete statements. This can be really dangerous, because doing this that often can lead us to tunnel some players and lose any cred on them, just because other posters won't worry about he said, rather they'll worry how he say it. Plus, Pablols joined the thread some time after we started discussing, so it's proabable that he didn't make clear thoughts in a start and therefore, misinterpretations will take place. But... He actually wants to lynch mementoss because he claims dangerous play. He stated that twice: On March 02 2012 06:23 Pablols wrote: (...) If we were to lynch someone on day one it should probably be this guy, I do not have enough proof to say he is scum but even if he isn't we can agree he is dangerous because he either doesn't take the time to read an entire post or he is scum. On March 02 2012 06:35 Pablols wrote: As you can read on my other posts I was thinking that random post was the best option because of the lack of information, but now I think I know who I should vote for. You're dangerous to the town even if you're not scum What bugs me is that he seems so confident about lynching him without looking at other players yet. He indirectly states that there is a probability that he isn't town and even he cant show us any evidence addressing this fact. Well, if he isn't 100% that he is scum, why does he take a conclusion like that? It looks like a OMGUS for me (when you accuse a player just because he accused you). Add to that situation that he first post in his thread was drawing suspicion upon me, yet I don't see it materializes after that. On March 01 2012 16:59 Pablols wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 11:51 trackd00r wrote: Hi everyone, I hope you enjoy the game. This is my second game on this forums. My previous game was Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII. To be very honest, I played pretty bad that game T_T and I hope I can play better in this one. You can take a look and check my meta if you wish. I don't mind. The first lynch is very hard to achieve successfully due to the limited information we have at this moment. The most important thing at this phase of the game is to stay active. Usually, the mafia are able to push out a Townie lynch in Day 1 because inactive or lurkish players don't follow the rhythm of the thread and are prone to make unclear reads and staying out of contributing substantially. Therefore, they are rendered as uncooperative. Plus, they might not have the chance to defend themselves and that pretty much seals their lynch. We obviously don't want this situation to happen, so please be active. Try to post as much good content as you can. This means that you shouldn't post one liners or random fluff to clutter up the thread. Mafia is going to have an easy time hiding if we miss the direction of our goal, which is to lynch scum. This game has 9 townies and 3 scum. As you can see, this might turn out to a short game. If we can't good lynches in the first 2 days, we will be on a huge disadvantage. Don't be afraid to accuse anyone. The key is to push your cases and be consistent. About the lynch policy, I'm totally against a no-lynch, as one is the crucial step to get information. If we don't lynch today, Mafia gets a free kill the following night and we will be on the exactly the same situation as now in day 2. I'll be on the thread for about an hour or so today. It seems that we don't have a wide variation of Time zones, so hopefully all of us can be discussing at the same time. Seems really suspicious, almost like he is trying too hard to prove his innocence without real proof. He also uses "we" as if he already proved himself too be innocent, it sounds very suspicious. Suddenly dropping suspicions is a often a scum trait. I'll take a closer look to him and Oto for now. I want to hear Tiystus again as well. | ||
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On March 02 2012 11:04 OtoshimonoU wrote: Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs. I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts. I just don't understand why you jump to the thread, having like 3 people accusing you and yet you bring up a highly WIFOMy case (based on mostly speculation). It looks like you are just skimming through the thread. These kinds of traits might happen subconsciously, and the connections between players don't really represent their alignment. Often, players tend to agree with others because they like their style of posting, or just by the fact they give town reads to each other. There are another stances where we can spot any scummy link. A good example of putting this on practice is the plan brought up by mementoss. But I repeat, these connections often happen, and mafia will actually try to hide them Oto: It's kinda weird though, because you claim that others are taking the lead of the thread. The rest are the only ones that, well, can like prevent this to happen if it was actually of any problem. This includes you, and I haven't seen something substantial from your part. Please respond to my post This goes to Pablols as well, but he was posted much more than Oto, so I don't worry that much about that. | ||
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Ok, analyzing the situation right now, I think we have viable candidates for lynch this day. OtoshimonoU: He made himself present some hours ago. Yet he didn't respond to any of his accusations. This can leave us with two options: 1) He is townie not putting effort to read the thread. Rather he skims through the big posts and doesn't care about the rest. 2) He is a scum trying to avoid any accusations and making quick agreements. I think that option 2 is the most likely. He completely ignored this post and this one. I already gave my opinion about Oto. Sufficiency: I have to admit that he didn't look suspicious to me before because of the way that he got attention, something that mafia hardly would do. But, he made a succession of awkward, one-liner posts (see mementoss post) that are confusing the hell out of me. I would accept that behavior for one day, but doing it twice already just looks wrong. I don't understand why a player would play like that. I still do have the little hope that he is just a uninterested townie. It's a very tiny chance, but it is one. He is another good candidate. I don't think we might lose much by lynching him. The player I would like to lynch today is OtoshimonoU. He gets my vote by now. ##Vote: OtoshimonoU (voting is done in the voting thread, but I'll post it here as well to make it public. As for Tiystus, he promised that he would be back posting in three hours or so. He didn't. Rainmaker promised something as well. Again, no posts. I'll check the filters once again. There is a chance that I can change my vote. | ||
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The idea of a beorn lynch doesn't seem bad for me as well, but I'd to hear his opinion. Remember that if he doesn't cast it's vote today he will be modkilled. So if he doesn't want to risk that, he should better be up with a good reason to lynch someone. @Dimmuklok, why do you claim that the only useful thing about Rainmaker post is the Oto? What about the comments he made about Pablols? Plus, you say that there is no need to bring up more names. Then, what's the point FoSing him? That move was rather unnecessary. I'm currently holding vote on Oto, but as I said I'll consider anything else. This is very important. If any of these candidates are heading up to a mis-lynch (townie lynched), Mafia will try to push very hard them without leaving their hands dirty. This hasn't finished yet. We still have 7 hours so let's them wisely. | ||
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Gunman, now tell us why you want to lynch oto. You haven't given a reason why yet. @ mementoss: My vote for oto, believe it or not, isn't that early. I've waited 3 times for him to come up with a reasonable answer to my accusations and he didn't. I think that's pretty enough time to wait before casting a vote. Plus in other games, voting in the first 8-10 hours of the first day is not uncommon. Maybe yes, some of them are for just purely pressure goals, but you don't imagine what kind of wonders (scum slip ups) can happen when pressure is up to any player, no matter if it is a townie or mafia. Aside of that, casting votes too late often lead to a mis or no lynch. | ||
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Sburbbles, I'm glad you posted. Well, I agree with your read on maverick at some degree Specially when you pointed out the lists. These lists aren't really helpful. They are just an excuse to generate content most of the time. Regarding oto, I think that the lynch is pretty much on him right now. I hardly see that we are able to take a organized decision at this rate. My vote on him is not only because he didn't take a time to read or he ignored the accusations. It is to see how everyone else see this move as well. I can't make conclusions yet because there are people who haven't posted/voted by this time (cheez, it's freaking 30 mins before the deadline) I might go for a no lynch now. But the only justification for this action to happen is the enormous lack of activity around the thread. If it wasn't for that, there would be no way I'd support a NL. | ||
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Anyways, maybe we should wait until the host/mods tell us if there are any players who will be replaced or modkilled. It's very frustrating to play with 1/3 players inactive. | ||
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Ok, now that mementoss has flipped green, lets analyze and try to point what motivations lead to his death. The most likely possibility are these: - OtoshimonU is scum. Mafia took advantage of a no lynch last day to shoot one of his more consistent prosecutors, which was mementoss. Surely, there were (and currently are) many other players who are suspecting Oto, but in these case mafia got rid of the most active. - Mementoss was the most active player in the thread. So, in order to keep the activity low, mafia killed him. In this case, finding the scum who did this move will be a more thrilling and difficult task. Anyways, this situation really feels like it's day 1. With 3 replacements and a no-lynch, progress will be difficult. What still makes my head puke is that Oto dodged not only mine, but other players accusations again. I would like to hear about Rainmaker, Pablols and Willz and their stance at least in sufficiency or Oto. Any other possibilities are welcome though. @ Blubb. I'm glad you posted. I agree with your view on sufficiency. He is probably a town player who is trying to play by his own. At least, he doesn't seem to have a dangerous agenda to town, so it's not something to worry about at the moment. | ||
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I'm posting some final analysis soon. | ||
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I'm not going into details regarding Oto's case, since it's pretty much clear to many. Rainmaker5 is different type of lurker. I wouldn't label as someone as a innocent townie trying to follow the most active or rational players and easily following trends. In fact, he tries so hard to appear to contribute in the only post that he made, and then never really appear again. On March 03 2012 03:33 Rainmaker5 wrote: Ok I'm going to draft up a list and announce my vote real quick. this formatiting will be a bit wonky but I don't have time to really make shit pretty right now. going to link post #s so I don't have to explain where I'm getting information Trapdoor http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13742776 This is just a good post that I feel I can stand behind. Against a no-lynch and wants people to talk. Standard behavior for a good town player. Dimmuclock http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011 same shit, for a lynch wants people to discuss. Otoshi~~~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743011 Here's pretty suspcious to me, starts out against a lynch at all, when people say they're for it switches to random lynch. Seems pretty scummy. Up to this point I don't think people had mentioned a random lynch. Gunman Don't really have a read on him b/c he doesn't really seem sure of his own opinion would like to hear more from him but I can't really say that FoSing currently Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good Mav is seems pretty opposed to a random lynch, not to much to say after that Pablos http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13750765 going out of his way to fly off the handle when someone is suspicious, is well suspicious. Also he seems to be supporting random lynch? I'm not really sure Beorn doesn't really seem to have an opinion- no read So I don't really like Pablos's style, but he cleaned up towards the end. Mav and Memtoss are off my radar currenly because even if they're scum they're encouraging posts and moving forward that's going to hurt them. Suff is kinda sketchy- takes attention away from his rampant fingering by putting it on people who didn't react. But I really feel the guy who's generating the most noise is definitely OtoshimonoU. He feels really scummy and even if he's jsut playing poorly is the type of guy that real scum can use to keep deflecting attention. Which I guess is something you can suspect me of doing lol Anyway that's my vote and my analysis. Wish me luck on my Midterm! You would say ' well, this looks like a pro-town post and encourages discussion, right?' NO, it isn't: 1) Look how he makes a summary of the recent events. Nothing really worth to contribute. 2) Notice how does he quote certain players while others not. Tiy and fried are on the lynch train- seems good Not reasoning at all. Why would players which are constantly lurking seem good to you? Didn't you want to talk? Why would you let continue them lurking? 3) Notice how he didn't really pointed a finger on anyone. He claims that Mav and Mem are town just because if they were scum they would do X thing. Players that make justifications based that 'X guy is town because Y behavior would be backfired to scum' are very likely to flip scum. Same thing happened with Oto. In this case, he isn't 100% sure that he is mafia. He took the luxury to say that he might be just poor town play. That explanation is much more developed than his final veredict. This is the next post: On March 03 2012 17:11 Rainmaker5 wrote: lol i go take a test and head out for drink and I'm fosed twice the shit. the trick to playing town is to be honest and not mad, I made a post where I read the entire thread and made opinions while reading it. I'd love to see everyone's opinions on everyone. basically the point of mafia in my real life experience is to clear all scum. So don't get butthurt when people are suspicious. Especially early on we can't get reads. But as town we need to fucking lynch someone, just to clear out people. I've said it once and I'll say it again- if town doesn't lynch they lose. If you're town and you want to win post, and try to get reads. Otoshi is still #1 on my list because he refuses to do either except defend himself in a trashy way, but whatever I'll talk more when I'm sober. CHEERS DUDES. It's mostly fluff. He realizes that he is FoSed, but instead, he decides to dodge the attacks. Yea, you claim to be drunk. This statement is rather questionable. On March 03 2012 17:12 Rainmaker5 wrote: I'll post a detailed analysis of everyone tomorrow btw. I apologize for not talking a big part in the game so far, but lifes a bitch. He wills to post an analysis. The bad thing is that this never materializes. Rainmaker5 is a dangerous lurker. I'm voting for him now. If Oto's lynch is pretty much set, I'll change my vote though. We don't want another No-lynch. | ||
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I agree with blubb, investigating Rain would be pretty much a waste. Instead, I suggest that the vigilante (if there's one) should consider shooting him. But as he might be mod killed any now, I don't know if is better to wait for a replacement before taking any further actions. Anyways, we can't ignore him completely, since there is a very good chance that he turns scum, specially now that Oto flipped town. I have some suspicions against gunman103. Will post analysis shortly. Pablols is lurking pretty hard. | ||
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