We are one but we are many
Newbie Mini Mafia III
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We are one but we are many | ||
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They will swing from the gallows. They will swing from the lamposts. They will swing from the slightly elevated mayor's office; and we will never surrender! For one, for all. BROMANCIPATION! | ||
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Just letting everyone know that both Jitsu and I (Probulous) have played here before. You can check out our profiles for the details if you want. We are sharing this account because of our oh so busy lives. Have no fear, we will be active and will be participating. Finally, I tend to spam, so in an effort to not swamp the thread with crap, I will be actively controlling the number of posts that come from me. I am getting it out of my system now. /Probulous "The nectar of freedom tastes like awesomeness"-someone wise | ||
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On January 25 2012 09:04 jaj22 wrote: Everyone's going to think you're scum because of your drastic style change. [checks player list for Gonzaw] I'll be PMing for the ObsQT tomorrow, assuming that there is one. Oh that's mean! <3 Gonz! People can be stupid if they want. I could care less if they think I'm scum because I'm not spamming. Stupidity begs to be ignored. Besides once Jitsu arrives that reasoning makes no sense. He doesn't spam at all so the bromance is not changing style, merely choosing. | ||
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On January 25 2012 13:28 zarepath wrote: So, the first question I think has to be this: What do we want to accomplish on Day 1? We either no-lynch or randomly lynch, as far as I can tell. We don't have much game history to draw upon as far as deciding who to cut early. I see several possible outcomes: Randomly lynch a mafia/red: This is clearly the best possible outcome. If we have worthwhile hunches to go on, it's possible we can lynch a mafia on the first Day. From what I've read it's unlikely, but still possible; it all depends on what kind of discussion we see today. Randomly lynch a townie/blue: Bad. The only upside is that we can then use the information from that lynching to determine likely mafia. Who was most excited about randomly lynching that particular person? Who bandwagonned on? Who were the last few votes who made the lynch possible? No-lynch: We don't get a mafia, or confirmation of who isn't mafia. Because there's no risk of lynching a townie/blue, this seems to be very safe. But what I wonder is this: if we don't lynch anyone today, our information for Day 2 is limited, and we give the mafia a night to kill someone. We end up with 1 dead townie before we're willing to make deductions. Maybe it's riskier to not lynch someone on the first night, because we'd have less information to go on. So what I'm suggesting is this: we lynch someone randomly. Say, by reverse-alphabetical order. There's no reason at all for us to suspect this person. But by deciding to lynch them, we'll either see a lot of defense (ie, they're mafia), or a lot of people agreeing with killing that person (ie, those people are mafia.) Once that person flips blue or red, we'll know who was who. TLDR; I suggest that we randomly lynch zelblade, or seriously discuss it, and see what happens from there. Gentlemen, First post and we are already talking about Random Lynches. I am definitely not a fan of it. Part of lynches, even if it's a miss-lynch, is that it still has the possibility of giving you information. Every little detail can give you information. I will not endorse a random lynch, especially so early in the game. + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2012 14:05 MidnightGladius wrote: And we're off! I'm looking forward to an exciting and educating game. I'd like to begin Day 1 with earnest and open discussion, with high activity and clear lines of reasoning. My style of scumhunting is to use Bayesian inference on evidence derived from the character and reasoning of peoples' posts. The base rate of being mafia is 4/13. Considering that I can confirm myself as innocent, the chance of anyone else being mafia, a priori, is 1/3. The probability distribution will change as people post and reveal their motivations, until I'm willing to lynch someone on even odds or better. Regardless, in the interests of objectivity, it is important to keep in mind the base rate, the false positive rate, and the true positive rate. Any statement can be made by either an innocent or a mafia, and the prior rate is fairly low. Thus, it is important to isolate statements that exclusively mafia would make, or at least to find examples of reasoning that lean towards indicating mafia motivations. This way, we can try to prevent suffering from confirmation bias and scumhunt more effectively. On the topic of zarepath's proposal, I find it alarming. Lynching randomly has a 1/3 chance of success, which is far too low for me to support. Your reasoning, especially, suffers from confirmation bias. In response to this plan, anyone can either a) support the lynch, b) argue against the lynch, and c) say nothing. Since saying nothing leads to modkills, we can eliminate the case. Supporting the lynch, in your argument, is evidence of being mafia. However, you claim that arguing against the lynch is also evidence of being mafia. That is inconsistent, unless you would like to claim which case is more indicative of being mafia. To continue, the "random" process used to select zelblade is also odd. Why not use either an entirely random process (RNG), or one that is motivated by initial evidence (on the basis of inactivity or level of contribution)? In conclusion, I have to defer my support for zarepath's proposal, and I am also inclined to raise suspicions towards him. His plan has a low probability of success, and his procedure for deriving information from ensuing discussion is flawed with confirmation bias. Could we instead opt to lynch on the basis of inactivity and low levels of contribution? The odds are no worse than a random selection, so long as everyone is participating properly, and this encourages the generation of more useful information than zarepath's choice of testimony would. I'm not quite sure what you are trying to say, because it's really not clear in anyway. You're talking about Bayesian inference, and yet, i'm quite sure a small majority of this game would even know what that is, let alone understand how it works. You don't even bother to explain it - you just continue on describing the in's and out's how the Theory works. But at the end of it all, it comes down to the "importance of isolating statements mafia would make," which is what happens in pretty much every mafia game. So instead of having you fall into you're own confirmation bias, are you going to let go of you're statistics theory and play the game? If you want to scum hunt more effectively, be my guest, but don't take two paragraphs describing a system of mathematical reasoning that the majority of this game probably don't understand. It amounts to nothing. You want you're reads, you're analysis, and everything you have, to be 100% clear, transparent, and easy to read for everyone to see in the thread. Trying to confuse people Day 1 and fog up everyone's view about how you are going to hunt scum isn't the way of going about it. With all that being said, on to my personal ideas about lynch targets this early. I don't think a random lynch, as I stated before, to be anything good. Information can be gleaned even from a miss-lynch. As for lynching lurkers/inactive players, it is also not effective in aiding us. What do we gain from killing a lurker? I see little gain coming from it, except with the off-chance that they flip red. I'd much rather use logical reasoning to determine who would should hang Day 1, and there is still plenty of time to do just that. | ||
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I would really like to see FakePromise get back in here. The point (I say point, because he has only one post in this game) is very valid. Things that did catch my eye is his apparent "don't care" attutude about whether the lynch is successful or not. "seems good to me." Seems good to you? I see. Get back here in defend yourself. You are already on the chopping block. On January 25 2012 15:15 MidnightGladius wrote: I'm sorry if my first post came across as unhelpful, but I want to establish first principles before getting down to the nitty-gritty. I'll try to be more clear and direct. In simpler terms, players who suggest courses of action that hurt the town's chances are suspicious, as innocents should never be making these kinds of proposals unless they have much more information than they're letting on. As it's Day 1, this is clearly impossible, so I look askance at zarepath and FakePromise, who both advocate a plan with very low expected value. The other part of my methods take a bit longer to develop, as I need to see more posts before picking up any trends. Scummy behavior is such that it betrays access to hidden information, and then does not adjust accordingly as information is made public to the town. Players who behave in this way are either not updating their beliefs properly (tunnel-vision, confirmation bias, or ignorance are common causes), or updating them according to hidden information (perhaps a blue investigative role, but overwhelmingly likely to be mafia). Does that explain my position more clearly? As for the second part of you're methods. If i'm reading it right (and I would like to think that I am, since I've read it three times now) says that players who "betray access to hidden information, and then do not adjust accordingly as information is made public to the town" is scummy behavior. So, if a Detective in this game finds someone that's Mafia, do you think he should out himself as soon as possible and tell everyone what he's found? Or should he betray the town of this information? That in combination with you're voting makes me worried: On January 25 2012 15:24 MidnightGladius wrote: With regards to your lynch proposal, I don't agree with not pressuring lurking/inactive players with the threat of a first-day lynch. Truly non-participating players can be excluded from analysis due to modkilling, and it stands to reason that more posting of positions will increase the sample size of data. Makes sense. You don't want to pressure vote on lurkers. I don't know why, but it's you're opinion. If you want the lurkers to stay lurking, that's all well and good, but it doesn't contribute anything to a town atmosphere. Yet, with you're very first vote of the game, you contradict yourself and vote on someone who has a grand total of one post, and even at that, it's one line. I would still classify that as lurking, and you vote for him. And beyond that, you even SAY that you are going to want to hear him defend himself, and he has more than enough time to defend himself. That tells me you are pretty non-committal in ACTUALLY voting to lynch him. Tell me this also - would you bet on you're life that he is mafia? | ||
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On January 26 2012 12:21 Jitsu wrote: Actually, it's not a random lynching. You laid out that there was a 30% chance of getting a Mafia. Explain why you decided to endorse it. Trying to backtrack now is a terrible idea. Right now, you dug yourself a hole with your reasoning behind the random lynch, and now you are trying to Counter Attack Sacred for catching wind of it. This was me. Sorry Qatol/Dreamflower. On January 26 2012 12:25 MidnightGladius wrote: EBWOP: I see that I've been ninja'd again. This and the quoted posts are responses to Bromancipate. While I'm here, I'd like to ask you about your views on the other players. At this point, your somewhat mishandled aggression towards me is starting to make me suspicious of your own motives. So, because I've shown aggression towards you're posting, that makes you suspicious of my motives? How is it mishandled? I don't see it as mishandled at all - infact, what you are doing is generally referred to as "Oh My God U Suck," where you get upset about a player putting aggression on you and try to throw suspicion back on them. I just read you're post again. It's pretty easy to read. It doesn't matter if it's in reference to another post, you said [and I will quote it again, for clarity]: On January 25 2012 15:24 MidnightGladius wrote: With regards to your lynch proposal, I don't agree with not pressuring lurking/inactive players with the threat of a first-day lynch. Truly non-participating players can be excluded from analysis due to modkilling, and it stands to reason that more posting of positions will increase the sample size of data.. You said, "I do not agree with pressuring lurking/inactive players with the thread of a first-day lynch." You're doing it right now. You voted a person with, at the time, one post, and expected him to come in and defend himself. That is the definition of pressure voting. Than you say "it stands to reason that more posting of positions will increase the sample size of data." I agree, you want have people to post so that we can get a better understand of their motives. So you do the only logical thing, for which you are preaching in this post as well as others...and use you're vote on a guy that has a whopping sample size of one post. Either you like to contradict yourself, or you are hiding something. Also, you never answered my second question. But, in light of clarity, you ask my position on other players, presumably to get me to stop looking at you. The latter won't happen, but the former will. I think Sacred is on to something. There is definite cohesive-ness going on between FakePromise and [zarepath?]. Not sure what it is yet, as FakePromise has JUST come back, but they are two definite players to continue to spy on. FakePromise jumped on that "random lynch" thing way too fast. Also, as said prior, zelblade doesn't look too shiny. I don't like how he is constantly trying to apologize, when there is nothing to really apologize for at the moment. In my experience, people who are too flaky to piss anyone off is trying to stay neutral for a reason. Everyone else is still gray, as there is only two pages of posts thus far, and still 24 hours left in the day. That being said, you make me curious. | ||
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Ahhh, I missed the Not and read it wrong. It's worded extremely awkwardly. That also will clear up the second question I have for you. The question was based around the fact that I missed the Not, and you already answered my follow up question of "Now that he has posted, has you're opinion changed of him." He came back for a quick second, and than disappeared into the night again. He has yet to return, again. -.- I agree that voting him does add to the discussion, however, I don't necessarily agree that not posting aggressively at him is another way of doing it. I like the second way, and while pressure voting certainly has it's benefits, I think going after people in an aggressive stance is helpful as well. RE: Fake I don't like the OMGUS thing. It's just another thing to the fire. FakePromise, respond to my post, please. | ||
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Actually, it's not a random lynching. You laid out that there was a 30% chance of getting a Mafia. Explain why you decided to endorse it. Trying to backtrack now is a terrible idea. Right now, you dug yourself a hole with your reasoning behind the random lynch, and now you are trying to Counter Attack Sacred for catching wind of it. | ||
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I am heading off to class right now, and I should be back by the time the lynch occurs. If new circumstance arise by that time, I should have sufficient time to respond. | ||
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Few things of note in my opinion. I agree with Adam in his most recent post. I will be posting my thoughts closer to the deadline. My reasoning for doing this: As it stands, we have still a few hours to decide to lynch. If I display my reads to the thread, the mafia has an equal opportunity to read it as well. Like Adam, I will wait closer to the deadline to post my reads. It provides less opportunity for mafia to make a strong hit target based on their current reads. RE: MG The reason I chose to play on a Hydra is because I have class, Monday Through Friday, all day. That alone isn't much reason to excuse inactivity. Beyond class, however, I am also in the process of moving out of my apartment that I am in, which was the deciding factor in sharing accounts. Due to the possibility of having unstable internet/actually moving, ect., I chose to play on a hydra. Probu is actually away with his ladyfriend, I believe, until this week, so i've been trying to stay as active as possible. Second, you come back to the miss-interpretation of a sentence, that I admitted I read wrong. For reference, go back and check Newbie Mafia II. I was doing the same thing with pressing constantly on a few players, not only to get reactions from them in particular, but from others as well. I find it odd you came back to this, again, after I already explained it was a oddly worded sentence. Maybe if you posted with more clarity, it would be easier to decipher what you are ACTUALLY trying to say. Beyond that, I think you're just upset that I called you out and put you in the spotlight. Hopefully Probu is coming back tomorrow, because i'm actually in the process of getting my EMT/Paramedic lisence from my local college, so as well as moving, by day will be booked mostly tomorrow. I can drop in a bit and comment here and there while i'm in between breaks. This all ok, slOosh? I'll be back at about ten of to post my reads. ~J | ||
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I like the way he is trying to generate discussion. He is activily leading things in the town, however, he is also doing it at a time when the town is most vulernable (when the mafia has the power to use their kill power.) I don’t think this is any indication of scum play, quite the contrary. I feel that his overall desire to get communication rolling is one that can only benefit the town. The more posts that fill the thread, and the more the filter pages pile on, the more we have to dissect information and figure out the cancers in the town atmosphere. Secondly, he is actively calling out players in the thread for poor play and things that he feels is scum behavior. Getting on peoples cases is another thing indicative of good town atmosphere. I just wish his transparency in to why he wants people to post so much during the night phase was something that I could agree with. I feel that there is plenty of time to post, and the time to ask these questions would be when the day hits, and for him to tunnel people hard to get the information he desires. The most important thing that I bares interest is his ability to stop what he’s doing, step back for a second, and recalculate what is going on. Sometimes it’s beneficial to pressure, pressure, pressure, stop and wait, and then step back to recalculate relevant information. That alone would have gotten me a green feel, since mafia don’t require the need to stop what they are doing, step back, and think about their actions. They have the ability to continue to pressure because they are the informed minority – they know who is town and who isn’t. They don’t need to stop and think. Strongest Scum Read – zelblade I agree with what a lot of players were saying previously about him. He’s constantly apologetic, barely posting anything of substance, and just seems to be an absence member of the thread at this point. One of the first tasks for town players is to prove their innocence. He hasn’t even come to an inch of proving this point. Top that off with his bandwagon voting of FakePromise (fourth one to vote?) and I think he would be a pretty strong lynch candidate. However, since there is already considerable negative vibes towards zelblade, my other choice would be… Second Scum Read - Balt11t Someone go back and check his filter. It’s not extremely big. Of that, is there anything in there of substance? I can’t really find much. He’s also constantly apologizing for many things that come up negative towards him, and saying sorry for playing poorly. He seems altogether TOO apologetic, almost as much as Zelblade, and like he doesn’t want to step on any toes. In my opinion, people that are afraid to piss someone off aren’t trying to draw attention to themselves for a reason. I think his general apologetic nature, as well as his lack of making any real reads and pushing anything of substance. For someone who has been lurking these Mafia games for a long time, he seems to be doing a sight less than what he should be as someone dedicated to taking the fight to the mafia. I think a strong spotlight should be on him to step up his play in the second Day and try to find someone who is playing scum. I actually can’t pull anything out of his filter because there is a significant lack of anything there. -.- | ||
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Adam has jumped up to my second most town read at the moment. I've watched him play in other games, such as Student Mafia, and it seems very similar to his play then, with better reads. + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2012 03:09 zelblade wrote: I didnt attack SS because he was an "easy targert", but because he keeps contradicting himself, dodges many of adams questions, and his posts are also difficult to understand. As for the coming out of lurking part, I really did have some IRL stuff come up, and I "came out of lurking" before the zarepath case appeared in the first place. Thus this point doesnt make sense and I really dont see what you mean by "stuff leading to me". Does this sound like a mafia bus to anyone else? I'm curious to how you shed the suspicion that was onto you already into the second day of the game when there was a good majority of people starting to want to hang you. Why were you so reluctant to switch to Zarepath until you realized that there was no way he was going to get out of being killed? Just strikes me as odd since you seem to have absolutly no opinions on the current game at all. He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town. This really sounds like Chainsaw Defense to me, or, at least, the beginning of it. You're so reluctance to vote for Zarepath, until slOosh tells you directly to do it. On January 29 2012 13:50 DoYouHas wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2012 12:46 zarepath wrote: I don't have a lot of time tonight (or much of tomorrow) to address everything individually, but one of the biggest scum reads people are making on me is my plea to be DT'd. It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated. The only mislynch I could be 100% sure of is a lynch against myself. If I'm about to be voted off, of course I request that someone just wait and confirm I'm mafia before lynching me. I even noted that it would be a waste of an investigation, except that nobody seemed to believe me otherwise. It's a tool that could establish my innocence and save the town from a mislynch; it can also ascertain a mafia player, but as the guy up for vote, I'm going to selfishly suggest the one that keeps me in the game. People are also WIFOMing that that request somehow suggests that I'm a Godfather, trying to set up a wasted investigation. Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather. Oh, and also this: no, I'm not a godfather, and not mafia, either. I'll do a better case-by-case response tomorrow afternoon/evening -- I am actually busier on weekends than during weekdays. Meanwhile I suggest an interrogation of anyone who hasn't contributed post-Night-1, like sloosh did last night. This is another opportunity for people to fly below the radar, and considering the rest of my defense isn't coming until tomorrow evening, it'll give us another data-font. "It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated." Actually it is absolutely right to say that a townie who thought it through would never ask to be rolechecked. The very possibility that a godfather is in the game means that an asked for rolecheck does not confirm innocence. It's a tool that would have failed to establish anything other than a wasted rolecheck. As for my suggestions that you are the godfather, they are not WIFOM. I based these comments on your posting, not on speculation about the setup. Even if we are in a setup with no godfather, it does not change that you have acted as I think a godfather would. Yet another defensive post with falsehoods. My case only grows stronger. I like what you have to say, DoYou, and you make a good point here. Although, I think there is something else to draw from this. Townie play lends itself to being as transparent as possible to everyone else. Seeming to have hidden agenda's and making everyone have trouble actually reading you're posts are two signs to me that someone isn't a townie player. So, this is the question I asked myself. Why would I want the Detective to waste his nightly check on a Town player? He gets a Townie check, which might also end up being the Godfather. Always a possibility. But beyond that, it also prevents the DT from finding a scum-player that night, because i'm asking the DT to confirm my role as a Townie. There really isn't any reason to do that. Good town play proves you're town in the thread. You don't need to verify with the DT. However, from a mafia standpoint, it does a number of things. Firstly, since Zarepath was already starting to drown, he could have thrown it out to prevent his other scumbuddies from being detected. Secondly, he could be the Godfather, and was trying to pull in the DT check to waste it, and "confirm" himself as a Townie. However, I think the most important thing to look at is the fact he asked the DT to do it How would the DT reveal his information to the thread? Unless he breadcrumbed and died, he would need to reveal himself, which only benefits one faction so early...the Mafia. Looking back on it with all the additional information that popped up, his desire to want to get checked keeps poking me in the arm. It's like putting a puzzle together and missing just two pieces...and BAM, there they are! They fell under the table! ##vote Zarepath | ||
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My apologies to you all for making this more difficult than it had to be. I am reading the thread and will post something more concrete soon enough. Finally my upmost apologies to Jitsu who has been a trooper about this. If you want to give our hydra crap for not posting, blame me. He has done the best he could with the time he had. Thanks for listening. /Probulous | ||
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Nice Vig shot by MG there. Not surprisingly I agree with Adam that it would have been better to claim near the day break but hopefully mafia cannot roleblock you. Alright, business time. Here are my reads. Town
Now to the important stuff SCUM SacredSystem Before I begin I would like to thank Adam in particular for providing a nice case on SS. This is by no means merely a copy of that, but I feel it appropriate to give credit where it is due. SS may not be a controversial target, but he has been vocal. My biggest concern with SS is his inconsistency and contradictory style. I am trying to avoid PBPA as I find them too long to read and prone to comfirmatory bias. Here is my summary of the filter of SacredSystem. He starts off by pointing out why random lynching is a bad idea and targets both Fake and Zare for supporting the idea. Then he straight up votes Fake promise. Fine you have to choose I have no problem with that. But when Cosmos points out that he goes from general suspicion to voting after the MG vote he blasts Cosmos with i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it He doesn’t refute what Cosmos was saying, he merely deflects it with a nice OMGUS. He doesn’t even try to explain what is wrong with what Cosmos says merely that he is making assumptions. Well, SS made the assumption that because Fake supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate he must be mafia. Balt pushes him further to explain and he asks “is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you”. Which is fine except that the reason SS gave was … Nothing. He was suspicious of Fake for the 30% thing but he never stated that was his reason for voting for him. Then he backtracks by stating i advised against making non conclusive accusations accusing fakepromise seems conclusive to me even though i probably should have waited This is daming for me. He is now taking back his reason for voting for Fakepromise. He has not explicitly stated his reasoning and when called out for it backtracks but doesn’t remove his vote. Then when zarepath (I know he was mafia but he was right) states “who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.” he flat out states that Fake IS mafia. He has provided no reasoning for his vote but is 100% certain that Fake was mafia. Why the change? Well others had started voting for Fake so he could keep pushing that wagon and get one of us lynched. Well this is all very suspicious but how does it fit with a mafia plan? Simple really, SS knew that Zarepath was mafia and knew that Fake was town. The random lynch thing was a nice way to cast suspicion on the townie proposing the idea and push for his lynch. He was being deliberately oblique and when called out for it, waves away the questions. He never actually stated his reasoning for his vote so he didn’t have to defend his logic. Then when others joined the wagon he could sit back and let MG and the rest of us push it along. But Brothers, what of Zarepath? SS made a lovely first post after the lynch. He doesn’t state anything about his decision to supply zero reasoning for lynching a townie, or to go after the other person who was supporting a random lynch, no instead he states if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? Aside from the obvious WIFOM, huh? According to my reading Fake was mafia because he was in support of random lynching despite the odds. If that is the case why would you assume that the guy who proposed the idea is not mafia? Then he attacks zelblade for apologizing and not sufficiently proving his innocence. linky How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. His reason for Chocolate being mafia “now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic”. No my friend, it does not. Your posts can be concise but provide no analysis, no clarity and be obvious attempts to deflect suspicion. In fact, it is probably easier if you don’t say much. Then Adam rightly calls out SS and he responds with this beauty and why wouldnt zarepath be suspicious of defending fakepromise you tell me why anyone would defend fakepromise Contrast this with his earlier post if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? I will go on if people want me to but I am aware that this is becoming a wall of text. TLDR SacredSystem is mafia because he has been deliberately oblique and refuses to be clear about his reasons for voting for people. He has been contradictory throwing suspicion around with no analysis to back it up. When he has been called out for this he has responded with anger and not with explanation. ##Vote SacredSystem /Probulous | ||
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I just got a PM from Qatol saying that my vote doesn't count. Doesn't change the fact that I want him lynched. | ||
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On January 30 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: Can you vote at night for the following day? If anything could you put it on Zelblade? I know some people mentioned that they don't think SacredSystem is scum. Like in the case of zarepath before, I would really like us to lynch one mafia at a time. I think we all agree zelblade is scum, and so as to avoid division and a no-lynch can we go for zelblade? In the meantime we can discuss SS since we have the time. I will take a closer look at zelblade. I am still trying to catch up on everyone's agenda here. SS just screamed mafia too me hence my case on him. I understand you wanting to consolidate lynch targets. My only caution is that this allows mafia to wagon the vote really easily. We had this in my last game where everyone (I mean everyone, including the lynch target himself) voted for Sheth. Now he turned out to be scum but the lynch gave us no info because there was no requirement to provide decent reasoning. So for now my target remains SacredScum but I will take a closer look at zelblade and come back to you. PS Jitsu is sleeping so I can't confirm what his thoughts were on zelblade. /Probulous | ||
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I am heading home now everyone. I will try and jump back online in a few hours but I can't guarantee anything. Otherwise I will be on from about 4pm your time (I think, I am terrible with timezones). You know what to do, survive the night, lynch SacredScum. /Probulous | ||
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I don't agree, I think zelblade is town and just has no credibility. He obviously opposed random lynching and then makes a nothing post about mafia KP. Sl0osh jumps on him for this and for saying "to town" which is not a case in my mind. I assumed at this point sl0osh was just presuring zelblade. Zelblade straight up explains his motivations. DYH points out that he hasn't provided his reads when in the spotlight but instead apologised. Well he explains this as his first game and then what does he do, he targets SS. He puts together a read and pushes it. Just like he was asked to do. Poor guy, he then gets blamed for deflecting attention from himself by doing exactly what he was asked to do. I don't know about Zelblade. Everything he has written has seemed geniune to me. Newb and scared of voicing his opinions sure, but when asked to provide his thoughts he did. Now people are attacking him for it. If you want a comparison, in Newbie II CatsnHats was labelled scum the whole game for exactly this behaviour. I was the only one then to stand up for him. Well he was town in the end and he was actively contributing by the final day. So with this in mind I will withold my judgement of Zelblade until I can speak with Jitsu and we can agree on our reads. It is in the spirit of transparency that I post my thoughts before consulting him. /Probulous | ||
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On January 30 2012 16:24 Simberto wrote: Ok. With the information that Zarepath is mafia, i don't think we should lynch either SacredSystem or CosmosXAM too soon, seeing as CosmosXAM was brought up as an alternative to FakePromise on day 1, which would be a pretty good thing to do to both make yourself look town by contributing original ideas, and have a lynch debate where both targets are town, which is an ideal situation for mafia to be in since they can easily honestly contribute (this might be an elaborate ruse, but i don't think so, it just feels like it would be pretty risky if Cosmos is mafia) For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia. Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case. Alright, there seems to be some suspicion on me which is fine. I would encourage people to read my filter (it's short) and let me know what you think. I will get to sl0osh in a moment. Sim this part of your post is a little weird to me. That first paragrpah is WIFOM with no conclusion. You say we shouldn't lynch Cosmos because you don't think that we could spot a mafia on Day 1? Explain. SacredSystems alignment does not hang out zelblade's flip. I have made my feelings about zelblade clear and the same for SS. But just because zelblade targeted SS does not mean they are on opposite teams. Again in Newbie II mafia used exactly this tactic so that people would make the jump you just made. I repeat the flip of zelblade does not tell you wether SS is scum or not. I believe he is based on his posting. But I don't think zelblade is scum. So if we do go ahead and lynch zelblade and he flips town, well that makes SS look bad in your eyes, which is fine with me. But don't drop suspicion of SS if zelblade turns out to be scum. | ||
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That was from me /Probulous | ||
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On January 31 2012 00:39 slOosh wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2012 14:30 Bromancipate wrote: Woohoo! A red lynch! Congrats guys, I wish I could have helped but my contribution for the next lynch is below. Nice Vig shot by MG there. Not surprisingly I agree with Adam that it would have been better to claim near the day break but hopefully mafia cannot roleblock you. Alright, business time. Here are my reads. Town
Now to the important stuff SCUM SacredSystem Before I begin I would like to thank Adam in particular for providing a nice case on SS. This is by no means merely a copy of that, but I feel it appropriate to give credit where it is due. SS may not be a controversial target, but he has been vocal. My biggest concern with SS is his inconsistency and contradictory style. I am trying to avoid PBPA as I find them too long to read and prone to comfirmatory bias. Here is my summary of the filter of SacredSystem. He starts off by pointing out why random lynching is a bad idea and targets both Fake and Zare for supporting the idea. Then he straight up votes Fake promise. Fine you have to choose I have no problem with that. But when Cosmos points out that he goes from general suspicion to voting after the MG vote he blasts Cosmos with He doesn’t refute what Cosmos was saying, he merely deflects it with a nice OMGUS. He doesn’t even try to explain what is wrong with what Cosmos says merely that he is making assumptions. Well, SS made the assumption that because Fake supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate he must be mafia. Balt pushes him further to explain and he asks “is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you”. Which is fine except that the reason SS gave was … Nothing. He was suspicious of Fake for the 30% thing but he never stated that was his reason for voting for him. Then he backtracks by stating This is daming for me. He is now taking back his reason for voting for Fakepromise. He has not explicitly stated his reasoning and when called out for it backtracks but doesn’t remove his vote. Then when zarepath (I know he was mafia but he was right) states “who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.” he flat out states that Fake IS mafia. He has provided no reasoning for his vote but is 100% certain that Fake was mafia. Why the change? Well others had started voting for Fake so he could keep pushing that wagon and get one of us lynched. Well this is all very suspicious but how does it fit with a mafia plan? Simple really, SS knew that Zarepath was mafia and knew that Fake was town. The random lynch thing was a nice way to cast suspicion on the townie proposing the idea and push for his lynch. He was being deliberately oblique and when called out for it, waves away the questions. He never actually stated his reasoning for his vote so he didn’t have to defend his logic. Then when others joined the wagon he could sit back and let MG and the rest of us push it along. But Brothers, what of Zarepath? SS made a lovely first post after the lynch. He doesn’t state anything about his decision to supply zero reasoning for lynching a townie, or to go after the other person who was supporting a random lynch, no instead he states Aside from the obvious WIFOM, huh? According to my reading Fake was mafia because he was in support of random lynching despite the odds. If that is the case why would you assume that the guy who proposed the idea is not mafia? Then he attacks zelblade for apologizing and not sufficiently proving his innocence. linky How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. His reason for Chocolate being mafia “now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic”. No my friend, it does not. Your posts can be concise but provide no analysis, no clarity and be obvious attempts to deflect suspicion. In fact, it is probably easier if you don’t say much. Then Adam rightly calls out SS and he responds with this beauty Contrast this with his earlier post I will go on if people want me to but I am aware that this is becoming a wall of text. TLDR SacredSystem is mafia because he has been deliberately oblique and refuses to be clear about his reasons for voting for people. He has been contradictory throwing suspicion around with no analysis to back it up. When he has been called out for this he has responded with anger and not with explanation. ##Vote SacredSystem /Probulous I found a 4th mafia candidate guys!!! Notice the word candidate: I invite you guys to look at him with me. Here are some reasons why he warrants a much closer look. 1) In his town reads, DoYouHas is missing. The guy who claimed he was shot, and moved to lynch the mafia. What kind of oversight is this? One that you make when you are reading a thread for the first time. DYH is town because no-one claimed a counter hit. His posting has been pretty good but in my reading of the thread he didn't jump out at me as clearly town or scum. Same for Cosmos. I was looking for scum (I am still am) hence my very short bit about who is town. You are right that I missed him but how does that make me scum? I am not pushing for his lynch, or casting doubt on him. I just straight up missed him 2) He is one of the late voters of Zarepath lynch. zarepath - 11 DoYouHas CosmosXAM slOosh SacredSystem MidnightGladius zelblade Chocolate Bromancipate Simberto Adam4167 balt11t On bandwagons against town, mafia want like the 2~6 voting spots. They don't want first since it puts them in spotlight and don't want to be last since it draws suspicion. On bandwagons against mafia, mafia want the spots a bit down the list. Maybe like 4~8. They don't want to take 2 or 3 since it can build momentum in the lynch, but when it is clear that they can't save him they have to get on otherwise it is too suspicious. A bit late due to caution to the hop on me thinks. I guess Jitsu can explain this. I admit it looks bad but this is what happens when we you don't present and push our case. Hence my case on SS. I want him lynched. I will no longer allow the brotherhood to be smeared by weak voting. 3) Votes for SacredSystem. All I have been doing is making town focus votes, and I think I was very clear that I wanted zelblade next. I would be fine if he built his analysis of Sacred and suggested we go for him after zelblade but this almost seems like an interruption / distraction from the zelblade lynch. Explained 4) I don't think SacredSystem is the 4th mafia. Say the mafia are Zarepath, zelblade, balt11t and SacredSystem. Watch the interactions between the zelblade and SacredSystem in the thread, especially after night 1 ended. This isn't bussing. Mafia aren't going to bus their remaining members. It doesn't make sense that sacred is the 4th. (This point is assuming zelblade and balt11t are mafia, but I think everyone concurs with me on this). This was actually the trigger for me. As soon as I saw that he thought it was SacredSystem I looked around and found these points. I know there are stronger analysts out there so I'm asking you guys to help me out here. Well I disagree that zelblade is mafia but it seems I am in the minority here. I find it highly ironic that he gets painted red for pushing an SS lynch when he was called out originally for not presenting his reads. Besides as I explained to Sim just because two people are having an argument does not mean that they are on opposite teams. Zel and SS could be both mafia or both town (not likely) or one town and one mafia (more likely). | ||
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On January 31 2012 01:51 slOosh wrote: (Please don't misconstrue that last line as confirmation bias. I don't think he is scum, but I do think he is worth looking into) Further general readings: I looked into Bromancipate's analysis of SacredSystem a bit more. Looking at his actions it seems like he is a new player trying to prove his innocence and frustrated that he cannot. How does this not explain zelblade's actions? I'll take a piece from the analysis: He did have a reason voting for a townie. It is very clear that he has problems with the 30% statement. So why push Fake first up? Why not zarepath? He was the one who proposed the idea. I don't like how he just happened to choose the townie of the two with reasoning that could explain a vote for the mafia. Especially that the mafia guy was the one who suggested random lynching. He doesn't even come straight out and say it. He never said "I am voting for Fakepromise because he supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate." It is one piece in the puzzle but it sets the tone. He lashes out quite passionately at Chocolate for suspecting him. Another "newbie" tell. I think I would say that a coolheaded townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. An OMGUS is not always a mafia tell, but is also natural in newbie games, especially when emotions get involved. Why do you give him a break for being a noob but not zelblade? Hell zelblade straight up said he was newb and tried to apologise for it and you used that against him. As you say this is a newbie game so you must expect people to make mistakes like that but for me Zelblade is pushing a case when asked to. SS was jumping around the place without actually trying to convince anyone to follow him. His actions say "Cast a bit of doubt here, throw some suspicion there. We can always come back and use it later." Yes he flip flops a lot, but he is very clear and transparent in his actions. Which leads me to the conclusion that he is indeed an innocent townie having difficulties and frustrations trying to prove his innocence. Gah, he is not transparent. He is simply testing the waters. He never mentioned Chocolate until Chocolate mentioned him. Then suddenly Chocolate is mafia? No thinking about it, no analysis, no real reasoning, just a straight up OMGUS. Again, he doesn't have to defend himself from this. He isn't presenting a case. I don't see why you would give him the benefit of the doubt and no-one else. Also he is 4th in voting for Zarapath. You might say 'slOosh didn't you say mafia is like 4~8 or something'? The order isn't so important as the timing. He voted when it was still not clear that Zarapath would be lynched or not. Mafia would not add additional momentum on a mafia lynch wagon that is still uncertain. Fourth. He pushed the lynch of Fakepromise because he was in support of an idea that Zarepath presented. Why did he not vote Zarepath first? He votes show that he chose a townie over a mafia when he had the exact same reason for voting for either of them. He only voted Zarepath when the wagon got going. I am not trying to be argumentative. I want to understand why you are giving SS such lee way? /Probulous | ||
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Bromancipate DoYouHas - His aggression to SS and his logical analysis confirms his alignment for me. The shot is an added bonus. sl0osh Adam4167 - Explained previously MG - Claimed Vig and if Balt dies is pretty much confirmed. Null Zelblade - I can explain his actions from both a town or mafia POV so hence he is null. Jitsu is agrees with this. CosmosXAM - Hasn't posted a lot but his early pressure on Zarepath brings me back to null. He needs to be more active. Chocolate - Not much to go on. Did call out SS early but needs to post more. Simberto - Posts a lot but there are a lot of contradictions in what he says. I can provide more info if asked. Mafia SacredSystem balt11t, probably dead That leaves one mafia in our null list. We am more inclined to think that Zelbalde is town which leaves Cosmos, Chocolate and Simberto. Jitsu and Probu had a discussion earlier. Through the talkings, Probu urged me to read through Zelblade's filter again. I did. I see a lot of play reminiscent of a gentlemen by the name of CatsnHats, who I tunneled pretty much all game once and he turned out to be town. For right now, at least, we are going to keep it at a null read until we can make a more solid read during Day3. I see a lot of medicority. What do you think slOosh? | ||
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Honestly this Simberto thing is a little hard to understand. He is a hard read because some of his defence is logical. I will take a closer look into his posting. Right now we have a few targets and little direction and it has made it difficult for me to determine who suspects who. So here is my summary of what people think of other's alignment. People who think Zelblade is scum
Simberto is scum
SacredSystem is scum
Chocolate is scum
DoYouhas is scum
I don't see anyone actively pushing for a sl0osh, Bromancipate, Cosmos or Adam lynch. Please correct me if I am wrong or I am missing something. Our target for this lynch must come from those top three otherwise we risk splitting the vote. This also helps us determine people's motivations for voting. I will be looking into both Simberto and Chocolate, I don't think zelblade is scum. The problem I have is that a zelblade lynch gives us the most information. I believe SS is scum and a townie zelblade flip would help confirm this in others minds. Simberto has also been pushing a zeblade lynch and is still pushing that wagon, so a zelblade flip would help us with him. I don't want to lynch a townie so I will not be voting for zelblade. Chocolate is an interesting one but a zelblade, SS or Simberto lynch doesn't really tell us anything about him, nor does a Chocolate lynch tells us much about the others. Yes Sim has recently been pushing a Chocolate lynch but he has been pushing zelblade harder. Like I said I will look into Chocolate's posting but for now a lynch of one of the top three gives us more info. DoYouHas was only placed under suspicion by SacredSystem(linky) so I won't consider him a candidate. So I have this conundrum where the one person on the list that looks town to me would give me the most information if he flipped. This is why I want others to make their intentions clear. In short, please let me know if I am missing some information, or have misread your "reads". sl0osh, you in particular need to make yourself clear. | ||
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On February 01 2012 07:54 Adam4167 wrote: Hang on, whaaaat. I have 'far more content' then chocolate, but I'm still considered strange due to a lack of information? Isn't that contradicting yourself in the same post? I think you better take a hard-line opinion on me, or risk being labelled as wishy-washy or vague on top of the mounting case against you. Adam, can you please give me your scum reads. From your filter it seems that you have, me (Bromancipate), Zelblade, SacredSystem, Chocolate and Simberto. That's a lot of scum! I drew up the previous list based on my reading of your more recent posts, but I can't be sure if it is correct. Thanks! | ||
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now i dont think adam is mafia, he initiated the attack, which is fine, what i am more concerned about are those that just hoped on board, zelbade, zarepath and later doyouhas. As implying DYH is the same as Zelblade and Zarepath, both of which you think are scum. Who do you think are the remaining mafia? | ||
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People who think Zelblade is scum
Simberto is scum
SacredSystem is scum
Chocolate is scum
Thanks for clarifying sl0osh. | ||
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On February 01 2012 09:00 DoYouHas wrote: Bromancipate, while it is true that a zelblade lynch would give us information, a Simberto lynch also gives us quite a bit of information as well. If Simberto flips red, it all but confirms zelblade as town (unless Simberto is operating a long con bussing scheme). Also, it would be pretty strong evidence for narrowing our search down to either SacredSystem or Chocolate for day4. If he flips green (unlikely as I see it), it broadens our view of possible scum again, which is something I would like to know I need to do earlier rather than later. But look past all this to the endgame. We are 7 town against 2 scum. In order to win this game mafia are going to have to get 3 mislynches as well as not have their hit stopped the next two nights. This tells me that one of the only real ways that mafia have to win this game is by taking control of the days. Who among the remaining players really have the potential to take that kind of control? Myself, Bromancipate, sl0osh, Simberto, and maybe Adam. So not only do I think that I have made a strong enough case to get Simberto lynched on its own merit, but we would be safeguarding our endgame by lynching him. I am still making up my mind on Simberto. As you say he is one of us who is actively contributing. On February 01 2012 09:07 Adam4167 wrote: Posting lists is scummy prob, you should know that Seriously though, I feel like of those 5 names I am mentioning, the last 2 scum are in there. Chocolate looks bad. He spends all of day 1 soft defending zarepath, jumps on the zarepath vote quite late on day 2 (hes vote number 7 with 5 required to lynch), hes nigh on inactive and when he shows up he doesn't push any cases or reads. Zelblade is an interesting case. I know people hate it when this gets said, but flipping him would provide a wealth of info. He was also fairly late on the Zarepath vote on day 2, after trying to push my case on SacredSystem. Jury is still out here, Id probably keep him alive another day while we lynch someone else and gather more information. SacredSystem I eased up on a while ago. Hes another one who can stay around while we hang someone else. Bromancipate: All I really said for you was that your post-count was lacking, but you're busy, so I get that. That and jitsu never followed up on something he said. He did however cast suspicion onto balt11t at the end of night 1 when not many people were really focused on him, so ill look elsewhere for mafia for now. Simberto I've never called scum. I just said his postcount dropping off compared to day 1 was odd. Ill put some thoughts together on him soon. At this point, I'm interested in a Chocolate lynch, and ill make my mind up on Simberto sometime in the next few hours after i finish reading. Lists are only scummy if they have no purpose and you provide nothing else. There is a very clear reason for mine, I want a succesful lynch and that requires people being aware of others intentions. We will have a real problem if we don't narrow our lynch candidates to two or at most three. Chocolate is certainly not helping himself but it is hard to tell whether he is in a similar boat to zelblade, just not sure how to post. His lurking, voting patterns and his determination to respond only when required is really what is making him look bad. He can redeem himself if he contributes as we have bigger fish to fry. SS however is still responding in an aggressive manner to being questioned and has subsequently disappeared. My updated list is spoilered for those interested + Show Spoiler + People who think Zelblade is scum
Simberto is scum
SacredSystem is scum
Chocolate is scum
Unfortunately people I have to go now. I have a black tie dinner tonight for work so I won't be able to log on until a similar time tomorrow morning. I will have finalised my position on Simberto by then and will post what I have. In the meantime Jistu may appear, I haven't heard much from him. Good luck guys, all it takes is two more succesfull lynches and the game is ours. /Probulous | ||
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Also, still reading and analyzing current events. @Cosmas, why do I get this feeling that you absolutely hate committing to anything in this game? You're last post makes me feel like you want to show initiative that you are being a townie, yet don't want any responsibility of a miss-lynch. Is it just me, or is anyone else reading that? Do cat-foot around. You seem so wishy-washy. RE: Adam I just caught that you asked me about not pressuring on MG harder. I'd like to respond to that now. The reason I pressure is to gain information not only from that person, but people around that person as well. As well, since I was busy at that time, I felt the thread was going in a different direction when I returned from class after I had spoken at Midnight, and didn't feel bringing it back to cockfighting would have been positive town atmosphere. Concentration had already turned to another source, and I felt that only going back would have damaged town atmosphere more than helping it. Beyond that, since my aggression was based off of a poorly written, miss-interpreted post, I didn't have anything else to attack with in that regard anyway. I believe this is the instance you are talking about. Does that potentially clear it up? | ||
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Besides, I would encourage you to look at every game I ever played. Maybe you could draw the conclusion that I like to play aggresive, generally speaking, if time constraints allow it. Dream/Qatol, is there the possibility of an updated, official vote count? | ||
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We are close to end game guys and we need to pick up our game. We are nearing LYLO and it is possible that one more mis-lynch loses us the game, so think long and hard about who should die tomorrow. Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases. Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game. If you don't agree, convince me otherwise. | ||
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On February 03 2012 08:07 slOosh wrote: I really don't want to post more and give the mafia a chance to misdirect. So I just want to point to things I've looked at, and maybe you'll come to same conclusions. - First, Simberto is town. I think it was a genuine mislynch. So what do mafia with a mislynch led by townies? They stay back, they don't want their hands dirty. Read day 3 again and see who is not really committed in finding out Simberto's alignment. - Second, read Simberto's posts. He is town, reading them now helps you get a clearer view on things, rather than before when you may have suspected him mafia. - Third, consider the possible mafia pairs. Who is helping who and for what reasons? Forget bussing. I repeat, forget bussing. We can worry about it if we lynch a mafia. Right now worrying about bussing is detrimental to objective town thinking. The pair I'm thinking are not bussing at all. Hopefully you get to see what I see. In any case I'll post closer to deadline my full thoughts. In the meantime I'm gonna vote for Zelblade. Alright I think I know where you are going with this and felt I should respond. Simberto's scum reads were Chocolate and myself. Like I said above, Chocolate looks bad but we have most of town analysing his play hence I will look into others players in the off chance Chocolate is town. We can't afford to lynch Chocolate and then find out he is just a really scummy townie whilst when you look at Cosmos he looks just as bad. So for now I will leave Chocolate to you guys whilst I look elsewere. As for his case on me, would you like me to respond to it? I am town so I don't need to convince myself otherwise. No-one has brought it up so I assume that others realise I have been pushing a town agenda. I have been and am always looking for scum, there is no point me defending myself against accusations that no-one believes. So again, would you like me to defend myself against his case? Thirdly, what is with the change of heart? You stated earlier that "Ok I'm talking now and will drive discussion now because staying silent for night is stupid and doesn't help us flush out mafia. " but now you won't tell us what you are thinking but instead insinuate that you think that Simberto was onto something which could only mean that you think I am scum. So if that is the case, come out and say it. Like I said earlier, I won't defend myself against cases that look flimsy to me and are just a distraction for town. But if you geniunely feel that I am scum then I will explain my actions. | ||
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On February 03 2012 08:12 slOosh wrote: Could you tell us how you two resolved the issue of Zelblade? I know that for Jitsu, Zelblade was his most prominent suspect. I would like to what happened. Simple really, a matter of my defense of zelblade and a process of elimination. Jitsu has come round to my view that whilst his play is really newb, it looks like town newb. We have to make a decision and that is the one we are making. Its not easy with us living on other sides of the globe so we don't really get to have long discussions on our reads. We just have to trust each other's judgement. Besides, when placed against Cosmos and Chocolate he looks the most town of them all. Does that answer your question? | ||
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On February 03 2012 09:48 CosmosXAM wrote: I don't see why I am suddenly a target again, but I feel a zelblade lynch would be best at this point simply based on the options left. Bromancipate bugs me but being a hydra is a pain to try and read and study, so I am not sure who is talking when or what their specific opinions are at that time. A team between the two is plausible but we can only really wait until one of them dies to make an astute conclusion about that. I have sent my response to sl0osh to Jitsu to make sure he agrees with what I am saying. I guess as a hydra we should try and make a united appearance. The problem is that doing this delays when we can respond and makes us look bad. That is why I think it is better that I post my opinions immediately. I am sure it can be a little confusing but at least it is transparent. Since you guys have complained I will try and get Jitsu's approval for stuff before we post just don't expect immediate answers. As for you being a target, you are simply a target for my analysis. I believe there is a mafia between you and Chocolate and everyone is looking at Chocolate. Hence my look at your filter. | ||
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On February 03 2012 09:31 slOosh wrote: Ok I'll come out and just say it. All the cards on the table. I think Bromanicpate is mafia along with Zelblade. I didn't want to straight up do this since I wanted others to think about this before I posted anything, as I do not have too much confidence in my ability to articulate and did not want to give you the chance to rip apart my analysis based on my poor articulation rather than reasoning. Townspeople, please focus on my reasoning. Again I want to re-emphasize, mafia pairs. Bromancipate has been playing a game of subtle persuasion, misdirecting the town as he has become more active. The reason why this is so strong is that it seems pro-town lynching suspicious people, but as I have said three times now, we cannot lynch one by one. Well I don't agree with your logic here. People play this game as individuals, sure mafia is a team but they still have to post on single accounts. We can only lynch one person at a time so making a decision about a pair is useless. To me mafia are the ones driving an agenda that is not beneficial to town. If someone is suspicious it is normally because they are driving an agenda that does this. That is why I hunt scum. I don't really care who is town because I don't have to choose to lynch a townie. I need to be sure that person is scum. Besides focusing on pairs allows you to be swayed by WIFOM. Take this circumstance right now. It is quite possible that Zelblade is scum and I am town. I know I am town so for me it comes down to my belief about zelblade. If I think he is town I will defend him. But for you, you see it that we are somehow connected simply because I am defending him. That makes no sense. This focus on pairs makes you believe that we are intrinsically linked when in fact we are not. Hence why I disregarded it as an idea. First is his redirection off Zelblade. We as a town were set against Zelblade. He slowly comes in, saying that in posts earlier that he does not think zelblade is mafia. Then he takes attention off zelblade and puts it onto SacredSystem. I stand by this. I think Zelblade is town and SS is mafia. It is WIFOM in its simplest form. I don't know if SS and Zelblade are town, and you don't know that I am town. There could be a mafia amonst us, or not. So to you because Zelblade looks scummy I must be mafia targeting a town. But what if zelblade is town. Then maybe I am a townie targeting who I think is mafia. Now, this hinges on what you believe zelblade alignment is. But bare in mind, even if Zeblade flips mafia that does not mean I am mafia and SS is town. Sure it is more evidence but that is all. This thinking that simply because I defended someone who turns out to be scum makes me scum is wrong. Everyone can make mistakes. This is effective since SacredSystem seems so mafia. However, notice SacredSystem's continous push to lynch Zelblade. I think this is not work of mafia, nor ingnorant townie. I think it is work of Detective, trying desperately hard to convince the town without straight up roleclaiming as that would not work. Why would he keep persisting, trying to bring up the same points over and over? This is beyond tunneling or bussing. So that is why you think Zelblade is scum. Because SS refuses to budge from Zelblade. You could use the same logic for my defense of zelblade. I am not claiming I am simply pointing out that unless SS straight up claims DT with a mafia check you are still making assumptions based on WIFOM. - Notice that DoYouHas is missing. Again. - Zelblade the one he says again and again is townie newb is labeled "scummy as hell". - More importantly, I posted three times that we need to consider pairs. Yet he is still going after one at a time, and tries to get town to do it as well. I don't know why DYH keeps disappearing from my lists. I just don't notice his posting. If that is what you think makes me mafia then you are going to have to try harder. You still haven't explained how this is driving a mafia agenda. I have not pushed for his lynch or even labelled him scummy. I simply missed him. Zelblade is scummy as hell, he just looks less scummy than the rest of them. I can like your arguments and agree that he looks like a mafia without believing his is mafia. Look at it differently, I can say who I think is town and then label the rest scummy. Well I don't want to be labellign scum as town so I keep that list short and label the ones that look sort of townie, as scummy. Again, this doesn't explain where the motivation is. You haven't explained how my actions are actively leading to a town loss. The only thing you have said is that I took attention away from Zelblade and pushed it onto SS. Well I stand by that, I think SS is much more likely to flip red than Zelblade. If I believe this, why wouldn't I defend Zelblade? I want us to take a step back and think big picture. Bromancipate lurks (or is genuinly busy) day 1. He jumps on Zarepath lynch (7th vote when he realizes he going to get lynched). I know you guys hate the hydra thing but I really wasn't here for that. Maybe Jitsu can explain it. Even so there were others who jumped on that wagon as well. He defends Zelblade (guy we all thought was mafia and were going to lynch) whilst attacking SacredSystem, which works well since SacredSystem is so suspicious. See above. Out of nowhere has this guy come and implanted into our thinking that he is townie without any actual contribution (just an increase in activity). Actually I would argue that trying to move a lynch off someone who I think is town to someone who is mafia is contributing, but hey don't let that cloud your judgement. He tries to keep our attention on the pool of suspicious players when I clearly state multiple times that that kind of method won't work. What is most frustrating is is how he is a hydra, with two heads that can think opposing thoughts, capable of acting on either head's thoughts without being held accountable to the other. Notice how many times they conflict and conveniently resolve, aligning with the most "pro-town" option possible. Well I don't agree with your logic on that so why should I follow it. Just because people (including myself) have labelled you town does not mean that I have to follow your instructions. Finally, how does pushing a pro-town option make me scum? Should I be pushing a mafia agenda instead? Wait, maybe I should push my own ideas. | ||
Bromancipate
Oman52 Posts
On February 03 2012 10:57 slOosh wrote: My belief that zelblade is mafia is only a support, NOT a foundation to my case against you. I want to make that clear right now. I assume you read my post and still believe that zelblade is town (despite calling him "scummy as hell"). As I have said before, a case can be made against any of the four, but it stands to reason that at least two of them MUST be town. And so if you still so strongly believe that zelblade is town, I wish for your thoughts on my post and how either Chocolate or CosmosXAM is much more likely to be mafia. I will take another look at Zelblade. I do find it weird that he hasn't responded to my defense of him. In fact he hasn't responded to me at all. As for the others, I am much more suspicious of Chocolate than Cosmos but I want to rule out us ignoring someone who hasn't contributed a ton, hence why he is still on my reading list. Sorry guys I forgot to do the sign thing. /Probulous | ||
Bromancipate
Oman52 Posts
On February 03 2012 11:07 slOosh wrote: We are at 6 town 2 mafia. In the worst case scenario: night ends: 5 town 2 mafia mislynch : 4 town 2 mafia night: 3 town 2 mafia With only 1 mislynch we approach lylo, and as I have said, there are 4 candidates whom people would lynch as individuals but we can't do this. At least 2 MUST be town. Please don't forget this point I think this is so crucial. Also I find the twice now lack of acknowledgement of DoYouHas as town very disconcerting. I agree that we have to be careful. I don't agree that the fact we have two town in there is of upmost importance. I could justify all their actions from a town point of view. That is why it is better to focus on the motivations for people's posts. There will always be circumstances where town targets town, if you use that as evidence for one being scum then mafia can sit back and laugh. Why link them at all? Much better to ascertain the reason they went after the townie. That will tell you more. Finally, I addressed your concern about DYH being missing from my town list. If this is a problem for you I will calm your mind. DoYouHas is town. | ||
Bromancipate
Oman52 Posts
On February 03 2012 11:51 slOosh wrote: This is precisely the thought process I don't want town to get. I have made it very clear. 4 suspects. 2 MUST BE TOWN. You have to accept that at least two of them are town, DESPITE their scumminess as you call it. It is very logical to consider as mafia as pairs as to help make better reads. Of course but how does that help us find scum? If you don't focus on what people say and why they say it who cares what connections there may be? I am trying hard not to get frustrated because I just can't see what is so important about there being two town in that group of four? Hell there could be three, or even four town (very unlikely). I understand that at a minimum two must be town but what does finding that tell us? We still have to vote for someone. In any case, our methods clearly differ. Well that is not a mafia agenda or motivation thing. We simply approach things differently. I don't see how you can use this against me. It does make sense to see an interaction between two players and note the relationship between them. Sure that is fair but can you please outline what you find so incriminating about me? From my reading of your case, it comes down to my opposition to your focus on TWO TOWN thing and my support for Zelblade. Aside from that there is a weak thing about me not mentioning DYH despite this not having any affect on the game and then there is my late vote for Zarepath. Well others voted late too, that is probably the only hard evidence you have presented. I have stated before that my read on Bromancipate is not solely founded upon my read on Zelblade. That is not what I said. Again, no. Bromancipate is painting an incorrect picture of my argument. So what is it then? I am trying to understand your logic but you aren't making sense. What, despite my support for Zelblade, makes me mafia? No, this is why I believe zelblade is mafia. I am not basing it off WIFOM, I have a very clear analytical basis of believing Zelblade is mafia. Sure but you went back and forth on him. I can't believe that my defense of someone who I believe was heading for a mislynch is killing me. What I wrote there was misleading and posted in frustration. I know you had a case on Zelblade, I didn't mean it to appear otherwise. This is anti-town as it plants seeds of doubt concerning one of the most town people here. I believe Simberto was a genuine mislynch. No one has counterclaimed DYH's hit. He pushed for Zarepath lynch, even when I backed off. Distrust is anti-town. Guys, please notice how again this is subtle influence over town. No it does not. I doubt anyone here thinks DYH is scum. No-one has presented a case against him. No-one has said anything to make him look bad. I even posted after you called it out the first time that I think he is town. I would wager that everyone would have missed that completely if you had not mentioned it and it would not have made them vote for DYH. The only person who mentioned DYH in a suspicious manner at all was SacredSystem which I pointed out in my list. I don't see how you can draw a conclusion that I am misleading town by not leading them. Again, Bromancipate sidesteps my reasoning. Focusing on the 4 suspects leads to town loss as we only have room to lynch two of them and two of them are TOWN. And I never said actively. I said clearly that he is subtly trying to distract & misdirect us. The last line is illogical. If you think someone is much more likely to flip red, you don't defend the other suspect, but you push forward the first suspect. You do both, which is what I said. There was no way SS was getting lynched unless I tried to show that Zelblade is town. I did post my case on SS, how can you argue that I didn't push for an SS lynch? As for your logic on the two town thing I don't see how that helps us make up our mind about who to lynch. Should we focus on two instead? How about one? How about SacredSystem? If I have a scum in my sights I will push until that man swings. Maybe you don't like my methods, but they are what they are. It's ok to disagree with my logic, but it is not town to simply ignore and brush it aside. It is more helpful to town to reason with me why you think something illogical, that both I and other townspeople would not fall into a logical mistake. He paints me in a bad light again by skewing reality. I never commanded anyone and have welcomed correction multiple times. Just because I don't agree with your methods doesn't mean I am going to spend my time explaining to town why they are bad. Maybe they work for you. I don't really care as long as your reads reflect my thoughts and you are not mafia. For you however it seems that if people disagree with your methods they must be mafia? I don't understand this at all and it is heller frustrating. You are using my opposition to your methods as proof that I am scum? I didn't want to swallow this thread is pointless arguing about stuff that doesn't find mafia. Only when you label me scum because of that am I going to point that out. I don't think you are mafia, I am almost sure you are town. So why cast unnecessary suspicion on you? Lastly he does not treat my argument seriously. He makes light of it. Throughout his response he sidesteps, he sets up scarecrows, he paints me in bad light. Notice how he ends his defense. I argued that it is not pro-town. The last two lines are condescending. Definitely not how town treat other town. Well I'm frustrated in being drawn into an argument that does not benefit us at all. I am town and I believe you are town. Responding to you distracts from ensuring the final two mafia will swing. My apologies if you took offence at my condescension. /Probulous | ||
Bromancipate
Oman52 Posts
On February 03 2012 12:03 slOosh wrote: I knew it. Adam was shot. ##Vote Zelblade. Congratulations mate! Very nice save Hopefully Adam will be in here shortly to confirm. I will look into Zelblade again. I haven't had time because I have defending myself against you. | ||
Bromancipate
Oman52 Posts
On February 03 2012 12:13 CosmosXAM wrote: If he was this makes me feel like he was on the right track with chocolate, not clearing zelblade but 1:how do you know he was shot, 2:why the instant jump to zelblade (i still feel zelblade is mafia, not trying to say he isnt) He claimed medic, that is the only way he would know if Adam was shot. I think he is sold on Zelblade. | ||
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