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TL Mafia XLVIII - Page 173

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Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
December 19 2011 04:46 GMT
#3441
On December 19 2011 13:41 Refallen wrote:
Thank you hosts for hosting this game

Should I have claimed medic?

Only if Palmar threatens to shoot you in the face. I prefer blowing him up though when he does that.
Life can only kill you once.
Refallen
Profile Joined August 2010
452 Posts
December 19 2011 05:20 GMT
#3442
Haha alright. I claimed in the hopes of finally getting an annul lynch but no luck
vaderseven
Profile Joined September 2008
United States2556 Posts
December 19 2011 05:44 GMT
#3443
The sad truh is I made a hidden mistake in how I used my 2nd ability. The night that palmar died I choose to make myself a vet. Ky second choice was to doc Palmar but I didnt factor in his double vote and played with a more selfish choice instrad of the choice that had same random chance to work but gained much more for town.

I tried to recover a bit of use out of my role via wifoming a few RBs at myself. That at least worked.

I made blunderous errors on day regaurding annul thay I personally believe amount to the single most significant mistake of a town player this game. I wont justify that beyond I accidentally was operating on assumed things that were clearly not reasonable in any way to assume. My bad.

I think that raw 6 to 19 numbers of the start played into he mafai being able to risk as many members as it did and still have a viable smart path to victory. In my opinion this didnt come into play due to that they coulda risked one less member and still won but talking balance this high number of riskable players at that point in time offsets the roles given to the game.

I am way too lazy to look at it from a math % chance to win given logical ways it can play out but my mind thinks that number of starting players is as big a deal as the number of blues.

I will be sitting a game or two out as I am moving soon irl and will activily follow whatevwr games occue durinf that with a full obs mode mindset.

gg wp jackal/scum
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 19 2011 07:33 GMT
#3444
Okay let me explain why I played the way I did.
I was very sure after annul claimed the shot day 2 that palmar/radfiled would not rest until they got him lynched. I was also very sure palmar would conclude I was 100% scum if I didn't vote annul. Also I already knew that radfield and a few others suspected me. My team and annul himself thought that bussing him was a bad idea so I couldn't push it full strength to get town cred, because ultimately they wanted for him to not get lynched. So I tried to push annul half heatedly in a slightly scummy way to actually dissuade the people that thought I was scum from voting him, while not really convincing others that didn't find me scummy to vote him. I really had no option but to post very little and don't add much content to annul's case. Had I pushed it full strength I'm pretty sure he would have been lynched day 2 and my team didn't want that. So it kinda worked out this way, and also gave me a reasonable explanation for being alive later since I was useless. Same thing happened day 3, I couldn't really push annul so I posted the minimum. I guess I could have started pushing random shit at that point since most people that knew me were dead already. But at that point the game was really dull for me and I wasn't really motivated because town was getting no where and it was frustrating even me lol. So day 4 I actually had quite a bit of fun, at first I thought town would never fall for that shit, since to me it would be really obvious, but I decided to give it my best shot to make it look believable since I wanted some excitement influx. It kinda worked out, but we really thought town had the same roles as mafia since that was observed in the thread (town rb day2, town jack, town floridian, town medic) so we didn't really count on jailer, we thought town had a roleblocker instead. In the end it worked out since jackal never hinted his role and the remaining town never bothered to read the thread and observe jackal's behaviour in all annul's lynches to conclude he was 100% guilty no questions asked. So we won, yay!
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
December 19 2011 07:37 GMT
#3445
sorry palmar
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22632 Posts
December 19 2011 09:26 GMT
#3446
On December 19 2011 14:44 vaderseven wrote:
The sad truh is I made a hidden mistake in how I used my 2nd ability. The night that palmar died I choose to make myself a vet. Ky second choice was to doc Palmar but I didnt factor in his double vote and played with a more selfish choice instrad of the choice that had same random chance to work but gained much more for town.

I tried to recover a bit of use out of my role via wifoming a few RBs at myself. That at least worked.

I made blunderous errors on day regaurding annul thay I personally believe amount to the single most significant mistake of a town player this game. I wont justify that beyond I accidentally was operating on assumed things that were clearly not reasonable in any way to assume. My bad.

I think that raw 6 to 19 numbers of the start played into he mafai being able to risk as many members as it did and still have a viable smart path to victory. In my opinion this didnt come into play due to that they coulda risked one less member and still won but talking balance this high number of riskable players at that point in time offsets the roles given to the game.

I am way too lazy to look at it from a math % chance to win given logical ways it can play out but my mind thinks that number of starting players is as big a deal as the number of blues.

I will be sitting a game or two out as I am moving soon irl and will activily follow whatevwr games occue durinf that with a full obs mode mindset.

gg wp jackal/scum


As much as I'd like to rage on you after this game, your sole real mistake this game was simply not attempting to think what things really do mean. You're way too focused on roles etc.

Yes, you should have protected me but not because I had the double vote. No mafia would shoot you no matter how strong your role is because you were basically helping them more than anyone from their team, they would always shoot me because I was working to get them killed. It doesn't matter at all what role I have.

Please, next time you play mafia, imagine there exist no roles in the game, you completely destroyed your play by thinking so hard about roles. Ignore them.

The numbers were fine. Mafia made some mistakes, but thanks to you and some other townies who decided to not actually read the thread and just do whatever they felt safe, mafia didn't actually get punished for it. I would recommend you jump right in and play again. When I started playing mafia, I completely fucked up in my second and third game I ever played, the fourth game I played was the first game I played really, really well in. Play again while you're still angry enough at yourself to actually improve.


Computer says mafia
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-19 10:15:10
December 19 2011 10:01 GMT
#3447
Mafia XLVIII Analysis


So firstly, a few things about the setup: there were 19 townies and 6 mafia to begin with, with each side getting a Jack, a medic, and a Floridian. The Jack had four powers, but could only use two throughout the game with no repetition; these powers were a one-shot medic power, a one-time publicly-announced dayvigilante shot, a one-cycle mason ability, and one-shot veteran/bulletproof for town/scum, respectively. The Floridian was given an extra, anonymous vote that could be used each day. The medic was standard, being informed if the target was hit, with the target being informed of a hit as well.

In addition, the town had a jailkeeper that was not informed of saves, a vigilante with two bullets, and a parity cop. Scum had a roleblocker but no framer. In total, including the Floridians, scum had four power roles and two goons, and town had six power roles and thirteen vanillas.

General comments:


For all players in the game, regardless of alignment, I think it's very important that you consider the fact that the game is closed-setup. Thus, you should be very wary of making assumptions based on the setup of the game, because, by definition, you do not know the setup. This was particularly a problem on days 2, 3, and 4. On day 2, annul claimed a hit and players speculated about there being 3 KP. Unless you are trying to trap or bait scum, making assumptions about the setup, especially that early in the game, is in general a waste of time.

The game being closed-setup does not give room for gambits through fake roleclaiming, however. Two fake claims were made in this game, one by Palmar on day 1 and one by Drazerk on night 1. Both of them were highly damaging to town. Both players were caught lying, and a very large amount of precious time was wasted by town trying to analyze these two events. I'll cover this more in depth later, but this should serve as a lesson that gambits, particularly by town, are extraordinarily high-risk and very rarely high-reward. In most circumstances, such a move is often high-risk, low-reward, which makes even entertaining the thought pointless. This is true for scum as well, though less so. Claiming a hit as scum when both KP have successfully landed is very bad. Within one cycle, town will generally kill you after a scum-claimed hit if no KP is missing.

Fake claiming in a closed setup is also risky because of the possible existence of a rolecop, or even role or claim-based vigilantes. The latter is rare, but the former is fairly common to both alignments. As scum, this means that if a fakeclaim is planned, it should only happen when absolutely necessary. No fake claims were necessary in this game, but it's a reasonable thing to keep in mind for future games. This is yet another reason never to fake claim as town. The situations in which a fake claim would be beneficial to town are so incredibly rare that it's not worth the risk. Also, most of these extremely rare situations, in my opinion, would occur very close to endgame, to counter a scum fake-claim or something of the like. Neither of these things happened, and these situations are incredibly rare to begin with. This is why Lynch-all-Liars exists, and this is also why LaL works very well.

General Town Grade: 25/100, F


To put it lightly, this town failed. It was a trainwreck from start to finish, and we all know that. So, let's analyze what went wrong from a broad perspective. I'll address specific town players after this section.

Firstly, and most importantly, the town wincon is to find and kill all the scum. In my opinion, town must do three things effectively in order to do this:

1. Begin the game strongly by establishing protocols, whether explicitly or indirectly through focused discussion, that make it difficult for mafia to hide and easy for town to work.

2. Actively establish members of town so that they can identify each other and work together. (This shouldn't really be explicit early game, like through “town lists” or whatever, but by doing things that do #1)

3. Find and lynch the most anti-town players every day through active behavioral analysis. Reanalyze after everyday with the new information given by the alignment (and less importantly role) of the target.


Note that in none of these situations are blues necessary. Roles do not have correlation with alignments, particularly in closed setup games, and really power roles are only the icing on the cake. No town should ever be relying on them to win, but instead must always analyze players with the assumption that they have no blues.

This isn't to say roleclaims should be ignored or automatically accepted, but rather that the game for town ultimately comes down to everyone pulling his or her own weight, not whether medics can land their protects, or vigilantes land their shots, or detectives find scum. All of these things help, but they should be treated like unexpected gifts.

With that said, blues do also have the responsibility of pulling their own weight. This weight is a tiny bit larger, that's all.

So, with all of that said, one can easily see that town categorically failed all three of the above points.

On day 1, it was extraordinarily easy for scum to hide. In fact, five out of six scum barely did anything at all and stayed completely out of suspicion. Chaos, particularly on day 1, is not what town needs. Chaos is often seeded by excess and irrelevant information that is thrown into the game too quickly for town to process.

This happened on day 1 several times, and served to confuse many townies. It additionally did not help that two town were dead by the end of day 1. Rash decisions led to poor results.

The day 1 lynch target, who is more often-than-not town, generally gets lynched for a lot of reasons. Most commonly, a mislynch day 1 is due to sub-par play on the part of both the target and the sheep who support the lynch. As the lynch occurs, keep an eye out for people who hesitate, but then ultimately join the wagon without adequate reason and relatively little protest. If the lynch goes through, the next day it is often these people who should be pressured.

If something crazy happens, analyze motives. Do not lynch someone just because they were wrong, unless their behavior suggests that they knew all along they would be “wrong.” Town failed to do this day 2, when several experienced town players pegged annul as scum based on his motives, but were not ultimately able to get the lynch because of a failure in motive analysis on the part of the rest of the town.

Lastly, value analysis. Forcing players to contribute is often very fruitful in finding scum, because scum must fabricate analysis while town do not. This is by far the hardest thing to do as scum. It is made nearly impossible when townies are playing well, because that means there are no real mistakes for scum to base fabricated analysis on. Remember that a fabricated, but convincing analysis on the part of scum requires either a bus or a townie who is playing in a manner that is scum-favorable. Thus, if points #1 and #2 are followed well, scum will have an incredibly hard time fabricating analysis and will be very easy to catch when they are forced to do so. They might even be forced to play against their own wincon and kill one of their own in order to live longer.

Things like this:

On December 05 2011 02:24 redFF wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2011 19:38 Palmar wrote:
Sup.

If we assume the hosts went with the most obvious way of balancing the game, two people out of this list are scum:

Radfield
Palmar
Jackal
sandroba
syllogism
redFF
posts useless list
Show nested quote +
However I would never agree with lynching based on how we perceive the hosts balance games. They could just as well have randomized it or used some other method to balance it.
the very next thing he says basically calls the list useless

Show nested quote +
What I'm more interested in is that 6/25 seems like an oddly high number of mafia for a normal setup. Do you think this is offset by lower mafia KP or multiple town power roles?
I'm not sure what the point of this question is. Nobody (except maybe scum) knows for sure. It's pointless setup speculation to look like contributing with a hint of rolefishing.

Show nested quote +
In addition, how would you feel about randomly lynching on day 1. I mean completely random, we just have some kinda rng generator choose our lynch for the day.
I'm fairly sure this isn't going to happen, dumb idea. Besides we could never trust the person generating the number to not influence it themselves in some way.



Are bad for town.

This "case" as it were, was criticized by Palmar+Radfield, but nothing was done about VE, who supported it so readily.

VE buddied very hard with redFF for the beginning of day 1. That's a strange choice of buddy.

Indeed, the good townies were on a good track on day 1. Check out this post:

On December 05 2011 05:58 Radfield wrote:
Drazerk, what do you think of Jackal? What do you think of Visceraeyes? What do you think of Risen?


That's half the scumteam. Radfield obviously found bad vibes from these players even on day 1. It was likely from just reading the thread, as all three were posting very strangely even up to that point.

Another great post:

On December 05 2011 05:56 Radfield wrote:
VisceraEyes, care to direct me to a few of your previous games, preferably one where you were scum?


We need a whole lot more chatter in here:

1. StimilantE
6. Erandorr
16. kingjames01
18. Soap
19. Lanaia
22. vaderseven
24. Hier

You folks need to get in here and start talking.


3. Refallen
7. hyshes
10. Jackal58
11. sandroba
13. TruthBringer
23. Mattchew

and you guys need to talk more.


New discussion topic:

+ Show Spoiler [ Jackal's first post] +
On December 04 2011 23:57 Jackal58 wrote:
Good morning. Role confirmed. Game on.

Random lynch on day 1 seems counterproductive to me. On day anything really. What would you perceive as a benefit to doing that Palmar?

Posting lists right out of the box about players who are likely on the scum team due to the hosts balancing reminds me a bit of Zodiac lists that have been posted in previous games. More often than not those lists were posted by scum. At least in the games I've seen them used in. You scum Palmar?

The only way to 100% establish your innocence is to die.


The last few games I've been trying to watch how scum players enter the thread. It's something I've always found a little difficult as scum. You have to somehow establish yourself in the thread, while simultaneously not draw attention... or at least that is the inclination.

This post jumped out at me, and I'm wondering if it jumped out at anyone else. The tone, the touching on every subject, the shifting of attention back onto Palmar(twice).

Anyone else or am I seeing things?


This post went completely ignored by the vast majority of town.

Value every post that is in the thread, but especially make sure to pay attention to people who have a reputation of crushing scumteams.

Players like syllo, Radfield, and sandro are not called good just because we want them to feel good about themselves. They are good because they produce results and are consistently good in doing so. Choosing to ignore them is idiocy.


Another good post:

On December 04 2011 23:09 Palmar wrote:
Establishing your innocence is the first priority over anything else.

If you scumhunt, you might catch scum

If you establish your innocence you won't be lynched. If all townies won't be lynched, then the game has been solved. So yes, that should be syllos and everyone else's main concern.


Day 1 is often more about getting townies organized together than actually finding scum, since the "finding scum" part is often very difficult day 1. Certainly, establishing innocence and finding scum go hand in hand, but on day 1 you don't have enough conclusive information (most of the time) to do all sorts of different things trying to nail scum.

Indeed, while this post was good, Palmar's actions on day 1 were retarded. One of the worst ways to establish your innocence on day 1 is to take a gambit and fake claim in order to try to catch someone you think is scum. Palmar chose to do this with respect to vaderseven and it exploded in his face.

Good ideas. Bad execution.

Now, look at this post by Toad in response to a question posed by Radfield:

On December 05 2011 08:48 Radfield wrote:
Toad, if you had to lynch someone right now, who would it be other than Palmar or Corrupt.


On December 05 2011 08:53 Toadesstern wrote:
right now? So far I got mostly things that make me think people are town
For that reason it'd probably be a lurker right now because again, so far I think those mistakes which happened (or those things I thought are mistakes) are mistakes by new players who are town for the first or second time. If you want me to give you a name I'd have to read a couple filters again but I'd obviously rather see peoples reaction before lynching them. So nothing I'd say would be for granted


This entire post made me go "what?"

This is the slipperiest thing that occurred in the thread up till that point, and no one thought anything of it. How hard is it to name one person you want to kill?

Remember that the people who struggle like this are almost always scum. It's because they really have no desire to be scumhunting, so if they aren't sheeping a case or creating one they often are lost and will be unprepared for questions like these.

Townies will often have a target they focus on. Either they will say your question is stupid because they really want X lynched (and your question excludes X) or they will provide an alternative with good reasons for said alternative.

Scum, on the other hand, will try to wriggle out of taking a stand. They will either sheep someone else's existing opinion of someone, or say they can't answer the question for some reason or other.

another big thing that people missed on day 1 (EXCEPT for syllogism, he caught onto it very quickly)

On December 05 2011 06:04 annul wrote:
im still waiting for purple haze to address his blue claim. if i saw it, mafia surely saw it too. and i saw it immediately. ;\


What incentive does a townie have for outing something they think is a blue claim?

If annul really thought prpl was blue, and annul was town, do you think he would yell in the thread, "prplhz why are you blue claiming!!??" This is a terrible idea for town, because that potentially outs a blue to the mafia, who they may not actually have noticed!


From a town perspective this post makes no sense. If a townie thought prpl was blue he would not say a thing. Syllo caught this very quickly, and pressured annul on it:

On December 05 2011 06:07 syllogism wrote:
If you think it's a blue claim, why are you highlighting it? I think it can be interpreted in two ways, one of which being that he is green and "our" job is the job of every townie, that is to say lynching scum based on analysis rather than roles. That's what I thought when I read it anyway.


Based on the types of things syllo was saying n1, it was clear he found annul suspicious. He made an excellent shot for n1, and yet he wasn't protected. Syllogism, Radfield, and supersoft were among the players who made their innocence clear day 1. In hindsight, they should have been rereading syllo's and super's filters after they died; it would have been clear then that annul was very likely to flip scum. Instead, as we know, day 2 was a waste.

Other things I liked included this following post from prpl, made in response to Radfield's question about VE. Prpl made a good post, but there's a hesitation here that is unfortunate.

On December 05 2011 11:25 prplhz wrote:
I have VisceraEyes down as suspicious.

I have only a little meta with VisceraEyes and that is from way back so I don't know if it will be of any use. It hasn't been so far.

It looks like he really wants to get Palmar lynched. He is buddying too hard with redFF and taking his case a bit too seriously. I disagree with his criticism of Drazerk and this is the only thing he's contributed to this game anyway. I think it's weird that he doesn't want to be a part of the nice town atmosphere that he points out we have right now, but he just places his vote and leaves.

Wouldn't lynch but wouldn't miss him either. He has to post more.


Nowhere in here is a good reason for you to avoid lynching someone who you find suspicious due to so many different things.

Actions speak louder than words, and based on VE's actions (and your own analysis of him) he was likely to flip scum. So then why choose not to lynch him? You had no better reads at the time. What incentive does a townie have to buddy with redFF? If you disagree with his criticism of Drazerk, what about it did you disagree? If he's not willing to be a part of town atmosphere, doesn't that tell us something about his alignment?

All of these things were in favor of VE being scum day 1, but they were lost. Townies were suspecting him, but they didn't go far enough.

On December 05 2011 21:44 syllogism wrote:
My post initially actually said I would be choosing between VE/Hier/Jackal but I was wrong about him in lotr on day 1 so I decided against it.


syllo posted that he suspected VE; Radfield asked about VE; prpl said he suspected VE.

syllo and Radfield also both suspected Jackal. Coincidences?

One thing I learned from PYP is that, collectively, when good players all think another is scum, that person is probably scum. This is not true so much for the average townie, but with players like Radfield or syllo, it's almost always the case.

This happened on day 2 in particular and annul still didn't get lynched.

Anyway, I'm going to end the examples of good town posts/things you should have caught here, since I could go on forever. Some rereading of days 1 and 2 especially will give you all a lot of insight into what types of mistakes the scumteam made and got away with. They're actually pretty bad; it's actually hilarious what some of them got away with.

On to:

Individual Town Grades


Town MVPs: syllogism and Radfield

Best new players: Zephirdd, xsksc and Refallen

+ Show Spoiler [syllogism] +
Grade: 80/100, B

You played well, the best out of all the townies. Thus, you made a good n1 shot for scum. They knew you were a threat. The other players failed to realize that you had good ideas on day 1, and they additionally failed to realize that only you would've shot annul, and so your death was very bad for town.

However, I chose to grade you at 80 instead of a higher grade because I think your play day 1 was too lazy, and that you telegraphed your hit on annul too much. There was no way you would have known that scum had a medic, so the telegraphing of the hit isn't a big deal, but the laziness on day 1 meant that you didn't play to your full potential. Town could have used your effort in the minimal amount of time you were alive. The Hier lynch wasn't a huge issue, as he was playing somewhat badly, but I think if you had put in more effort you might have seen that it was probably a bad lynch.


+ Show Spoiler [Radfield] +
Grade: 80/100, B

You had an excellent start by almost immediately suspecting Jackal. I had the impression that you fell off a bit after the events of day 1 and night 1, however, perhaps due to real life obligations you had, or perhaps something else. It didn't look very game-related to me, as it was uncharacteristic of you. You were unable to convince town on day 2, but I think you shouldn't have given up. You should have fought for that lynch as hard as you could have, despite how demoralizing it was to see the rest of town basically flop. This should have been especially true in the night following the lynch, since you knew you'd be a very high priority target. With only 24 hours remaining, you should have hammered in the idea that annul HAD to be lynched.

Otherwise, relatively decent play. Not your best, and I'm sure you'll agree, but the odds were stacked against you.


+ Show Spoiler [Palmar] +
Grade: 60/100, D

You know as well as anyone that this was not a very good game for you. You turned it around drastically after the mess of day 1, but unfortunately it was too late.

I know that you are the type of player to take big risks in trying to catch scum. It's just not worth it, especially because you look like an idiot if you fail and you lose all credibility for the rest of the game. Even if you succeed, there are still ways you can get shafted, but that's not even important because the number of ways you can fail a gambit far exceeds the possible successes.

Perhaps you didn't think through the consequences of fake claiming dayvig day 1 in a closed-setup game. Perhaps you didn't fully consider alternate options to figuring out vaderseven's alignment. Perhaps you thought that townies would recognize that there wasn't necessarily any alignment-relevant information in the claim you made. Whatever it was, the decision you made day 1 was poor. You were part of the reason a townie died to the vig shot and part of the reason for the very unproductive day 1. You made a valiant effort at redeeming yourself, but the mistake was too big and town refused to listen to you because of it. I cannot fault you entirely for the lack of cohesion among the majority of townies, since some of those who performed toward the better half actually recognized that you were town and that you were right, but in this game, unlike Steamship, you made a destructive impact on town day 1.


+ Show Spoiler [xsksc] +
Grade: 60/100, D

Plusses: you were the first to correctly and publicly identify annul as scum and Toad as his medic. This is why I put you up there as one of the best new players.

Other than that, though, you didn't do anything. You were never a threat to scum because you had no influence. You were not particularly active nor articulate, and so, despite having a good read, you afforded town no benefit beyond your single vote.

You should definitely post more and attempt to influence town more in future games. This game is about persuasion AND accuracy, not one or the other. Since you weren't vocal at all, I cannot tell if it was a fluke that you caught two scum who played relatively badly while no one else really saw the connection.

Keep up the good reads. If you need confidence, build it by actively pushing your opinions. Support what you think is beneficial for town and crush whatever you think is not.

It's nice to see you improving.


+ Show Spoiler [Refallen] +
Grade: 60/100, D]

You had some of the same problems a lot of other new players had. You weren't particularly active in the thread, and you sheeped bad lynches. However, for playing your role fairly decently, I think you deserve some recognition. Your protect of Palmar was very good. However, your night 1 protect wasn't so great.

Yes, Drazerk claimed something, that, if it were real, would possibly warrant protection. However, the lesson to be learned here is that you never base an action solely on someone's role, because their role is far less important than their alignment. You always base your protection on behavior first and role second. Your initial night 1 protect was prplhz. This is not a good protect either, but it was probably motivated by behavioral concerns, which is better than role-based concerns. You didn't have much time to consider the claim, but let's think about this from a behavioral perspective now:

Drazerk claimed role-block immune medic that has to claim n1. As someone mentioned (I believe it was Palmar), Drazerk offered no name for his role. The claim itself didn't make sense, and it seemingly had no prior motivation. In what way was it believable? Did Drazerk act pro-town prior to this roleclaim? Would scum believe it? Most importantly, does the timing make sense?

You have to consider all of these things. In this situation, the simple ridiculousness of the claim should suggest to you that Drazerk wants to get shot, and thus is probably a veteran or trolling. Neither of these warrant a protection. If you think the claim isn't ridiculous, it still doesn't make sense because the timing is atrocious. If Drazerk were forced to claim n1 why wouldn't he claim 1 minute before the deadline, so as to avoid getting shot? In this case, he wasn't a medic nor a veteran, he just wanted to martyr himself, and thought it out very poorly. Yes, 80% of this is Drazerk's own fail, but part of the responsibility is on you because you are the agent of the medic protection action.

Night 1 the protection you should've made should have been one on syllogism or Radfield. A syllogism protect would have resulted in success.

I also didn't particularly agree with your roleclaim on day 3 (or whenever it was). This is one thing Mattchew had on you; he remained hidden longer because he did not claim his role despite calls for a mass roleclaim. Remember that, as a medic, you can easily be shot and you cannot rely on there being another medic to save you. Indeed, you can be roleblocked as well, which means that either you or your target will die, and if you get roleblocked you BOTH can die.

Confirmed townies are cool, but if there is no danger of the person you protected being lynched then there's no reason to claim. You only claim in order to save yourself or your target (who you strongly suspect of being town) from lynch.

Beyond that, you played your role decently and I have high hopes that you enjoyed this game of mafia and will continue to improve and play more.


+ Show Spoiler [Zephirdd] +
Grade: 60/100, D

Parity cop is a hard role to play. You played okay, though. Failure on your part, along with the rest of town, in actually pushing the lynch of annul to completion, made you look bad. You let a no-lynch on day 2 happen and were the 6th vote on redFF on day 3.

I think your checks could have been a bit better, too. Remember that a parity cop is most useful if you get a “different” check. The easiest way to do this, IMO, is to check the towniest person you can think of n1. If they die, you have a confirmed town check on n1 and you will function like a regular cop from n2 onward. Thus, your target should have been the same as if you were a medic on n1. Syllo or Radfield would have been excellent choices.

On n2 is when you look for the scum and try to check one. After the events of day 2, though, N2 should have been either an annul check or one of the relatively inactive players. A redFF check would've worked too so that a lynch on him the next day could be diverted if he was town or confirmed if he was scum.

Finally, I disagreed with your claim. It wasn't necessary, because neither of the people you picked were in danger of being lynched and you basically called on yourself to be roleblocked/shot.

Overall, as this was (I think, correct me if I'm wrong) your first game as town, you did okay. Hopefully you learned some good things and enjoyed what you could. Hope to see you play more!


+ Show Spoiler [prplhz] +
Grade: 35/100, F

You've been improving, but this game was a bit of a regression, IMO. You were correct day 2 that annul was mafia (after initially being wrong for quite a bit of time) but you were unable to convince people of that. I attribute a lot of this to your inordinate focus on Radfield. You focused a lot of your attention on Radfield and never actually made a case on annul. If you push Radfield and you think annul is certainly scum but don't post any explanation as to why he is, no one is going to listen to you, and you end up being another sheep.

Your read on Palmar was good but almost everything else was bad. Why push Radfield? What about Radfield's behavior was scum-motivated? It seemed that your entire case on him was “I feel something is wrong about Radfield.” That's not a reason for someone to be scum. That just means you have some subjective reason about Radfield's play being weird, which could be an indication of anything from his dog dying to an impairment of your judgment due to having a sinus infection.

Less hunch, more logic, and you'll do better and probably look less like scum. Annul wouldn't have been able to shoot you if there wasn't a (bad) case on you to begin with.


+ Show Spoiler [Mattchew] +
Grade: 5/100, F

dude....what were you doing all game? Make sure you read the thread.

I really didn't understand the consecutive redFF protects. Jailkeeper functions like a medic; you should protect those who think will get shot. The n2 shots were super obvious and had you protected one of Radfield/Palmar there was a possibility that they would have been completely nullified.

Town couldn't believe there was a town jailkeeper because your roleblocks made no sense. Granted, they should've figured out that redFF wouldn't get blocked by scum either, but as the jailkeeper you need to ensure that you get proper protects off. That's your number 1 priority in terms of night actions.

Forgetting about night actions for a bit, you appeared very scummy in thread and didn't do much of anything to hunt scum. You should forget that you are blue, since that's not as important as finding scum. If all the townies try to find scum, the scum can't effectively blue hunt because there is less difference between the town players. In addition, it makes their job during the day that much harder.

Try to think about behavior and perspective when attacking players in thread. Whose side does your target help more with his/her actions? Answering this question will lead you to what you want to find.

Most importantly though, read the thread.

If you have any questions, feel free to ask.


+ Show Spoiler [hyshes] +
Grade: 0/100, F

I forgot you were playing.

You did nothing to help your side and were even a target of a mislynch.

You should try to be more active, since without activity I can't actually suggest anything to you. I can't address the aspects of your play if you actually aren't playing to begin with. Start with reading the thread and posting more.


+ Show Spoiler [Lanaia] +
Grade: 1/100, F

Your reads were phenomenally bad. You had no assertiveness nor confidence, and at no point were you ever a threat to scum, but rather a liability for town.

I think at one point you were right about Palmar being town, and for that I gave you a point. Otherwise, I don't think you did anything.

What's most important is that you analyze behavior, as I have said to others in this post already. Why would annul ever pass his shot off to someone else? Why wouldn't he just shoot who he thought was scum, and take responsibility for it?
Your complacency, along with the complacency and incompetence of the rest of the townies who played like you, cost town the game. Keep this in mind for future games. Don't get discouraged, but don't be so complacent and ignorant of what's going on either. Build cases so that other people can see your logic, and make sure you read read read read read the thread.


+ Show Spoiler [redFF] +
Grade: 0/100, F

You pushed Palmar day 1 and then called your own bandwagon bad.

I'm pretty sure every read you ever had in this game was wrong.

Your entire filter was garbage one liner posts that were a pain in the ass to read or deal with.

I received a PM from someone who asked me to modkill you due to excessive spam and distraction.

When pushed as an easy lynch because of your terrible play, you proceeded to post additional one liners in all caps, followed by doing nothing and then dying.

You should read the thread, consolidate your posts, and actually use logic and reason in identifying scum through analysis, rather than defecating on the thread repeatedly because people don't listen to you. Generally, people don't listen to you when you're consistently wrong and bad. Start improving by reading the thread more carefully.


+ Show Spoiler [Erandorr/bumatlarge] +
Grade: 10/100, F

There isn't much to say here, neither of you did much, and this grade perhaps is artificially low because Erandorr was sick. Bum, you did okay for replacing someone who more or less did nothing the entire game. However, the game was already lost by that point, and I think you knew that.

I really don't have anything much to say here, neither of you was particularly influential on town affairs, but I don't think I can necessarily fault you for that.


+ Show Spoiler [Truthbringer] +
Grade: 5/100, F

What were you doing all game? At no point did I see a post from you that made it apparent that you were making sense.

Make sure you read the thread and think about alignment motivations when you accuse people of being scum. If you haven't done those two things, you're almost guaranteed to be making wrong calls.


+ Show Spoiler [vaderseven] +
Grade: 0/100, F

Dude...dude...dude...I don't really know what to say. I'll keep this as short as possible, since I know you already know most of everything I'm about to tell you.

Your shot day 1 wasn't super terrible. But it wasn't good either, it wasn't even mediocre. It was bad.

It seemed as if you only shot day 1 just to prove to Palmar and everyone else that you actually were a dayvig. Who cares? That's a terrible reason to shoot. You buckled under pressure exactly like scum would, which made it extremely hard for other townies to get a read on you. This, followed by your atrocious day 2 and day 3 play due to your faulty premise that same role = same alignment resulted in more townie deaths.

In addition to being wrong, you were vocal about things you believed with very faulty reasoning. I can say from experience that this is by far the worst thing you can do as a townie. You should have analyzed annul based on BEHAVIOR and behavior ALONE, and not on his role. His role had nothing to do with his alignment, as has been proven by his flip that was 99% identical to yours.

Keep this in mind for next time, and play the actual game of behavioral analysis, instead of relying on roles. Roles are next to useless if you can't actually find the scum to begin with.


+ Show Spoiler [kingjames01] +
Grade: 0/100, F

No idea what you were doing. Your votes were always last in the day and they were always on townies. Even if you were right, you had no chance of lynching who you voted for because every single time you voted near the end of the day on someone that had next to no discussion.

Next time you should participate in town discussion and actually focus on the candidates brought up for lynch. Choosing to vote random people you've been tunneling all game (with no one agreeing with you) is essentially an exercise in the abstention of your vote.


+ Show Spoiler [supersoft] +
Grade: N/A

You didn't really do much since you died n1. Your death had very little impact on town but you made a good kill for scum because you were making sense.

Nothing really much to comment here, since your time was so short.


+ Show Spoiler [Drazerk] +
Grade: 0/100, F

I don't really know what to say, man. You say you fake claimed because you made a blunder day 1, but that doesn't make any sense. How does making a blunder entice you into making an even bigger blunder to try and fix it?

I don't even know what you messed up day 1 that urged you to try and “fix” it. The claim was so poorly thought out that everyone knew you were crazy. It was so incredibly anti-town that the only reason you didn't get lynched was because annul screwed up and claimed the hit and then proceeded to derp around for a while afterward by shooting prplhz on Toad's orders.

You enticed a new medic to protect you instead of protecting a far more valuable target like syllo. You ruined hours of discussion and helped annul achieve a no-lynch. You even had terrible reads to top it all off, saying annul had to be town with repeated assertions of your opinions without evidence.

Not once were you right, nor did it seem like you had the intention of helping town. Emo trolling is not helpful, it never has, and never will be.

If you are burned out from mafia, definitely take a break. However, in the future, don't gambit so hard when all you have to do is read the thread and post in a way that is coherent and understandable.

So many townies don't do that, it's mind boggling. Chaos helps scum. Fake claiming creates chaos. When you get caught lying, which is inevitable when your claim is “roleblock immune medic that has to claim night one,” you screw yourself and town in one fell swoop.

You're experienced, far more experienced than a lot of the players in this game. But you played like it was your first game ever, with a bunch of meta trolling that was just a slap to the face of many of the townies. Come on, you know better.


+ Show Spoiler [Soap] +
Grade: 0/100, F

Long story short, you got shot because you played badly.

Vaderseven should've never taken the shot, and you got a free pass out of a trainwreck of a game. However, had your play been decent on day 1 I don't think you would've been shot.

Hopefully you read the game and saw what not to do, ever. This game was a good learning tool, if a little bit of an embarrassment for the level of play involved. I hope you can join more games in the future and get some experience.


+ Show Spoiler [Hier] +
Grade: 0/100, F

Same boat as Soap, man. I know this was only your second game so far, but in both games you've played you rolled town and you looked like scum. You should work on the way you phrase things, you should read the thread more carefully, and you should more carefully think about the logic you use. In general, if people don't make sense in a game of mafia, they will die very early. Day 1 lynches are often hit-or-miss because there isn't enough information to go on a lot of the time, or the information cannot be processed fast enough for town to use it. In these types of situations the players who die most often are the weakest townies.

What is a “weak townie?” Well, it's a townie that tends to play at such a level that he looks like the average scum. On the surface, you made a good lynch because you weren't making sense. The other players can't divine your alignment; you need to prove your alignment to them. You do this through clear reasoning and effective argumentation and scumhunting. If you can't do that, but instead end up looking like scum, you die.


If I missed anyone, let me know.

I'm willing to chime in on the scum side of things if anyone so desires, but mostly I think the scumteam knows what they did wrong and what they did well. Overall, I'd give the scumteam a 45 out of 100. I would rate them higher if it wasn't for the 5 member sacrifice and the total fail on the part of Toad/annul through days 2 and 4. It was incredibly shocking to see town repeatedly fail to lynch annul despite his best efforts to gift himself as a lynch.

However, I do think that there was a decent performance from Jackal. As with most scum lately, though, this scumteam didn't need to do anything, since town self destructed repeatedly, despite the abort sequence being initiated more than once by scum themselves. In some ways, it was almost comical; in others, it was sad.

If you have any questions/comments, let me know.
Refallen
Profile Joined August 2010
452 Posts
December 19 2011 10:06 GMT
#3448
Thank you for that wherebugsgo, was really helpful.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22632 Posts
December 19 2011 10:16 GMT
#3449
Technically it's impossible to lose credibility in mafia games. Also, it's straight up false to say I had anything to do with v7 shooting soap.

Reason you can't lose credibility is because it's irrelevant who writes stuff.
Computer says mafia
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
December 19 2011 10:21 GMT
#3450
On December 19 2011 19:16 Palmar wrote:
Technically it's impossible to lose credibility in mafia games. Also, it's straight up false to say I had anything to do with v7 shooting soap.

Reason you can't lose credibility is because it's irrelevant who writes stuff.


Well, I think it's fairly obvious that people were far less likely to listen to you after you obviously lied (despite being an advocate of LaL)

There's oddly a level of trust, I've noticed, that's involved in mafia games. A lot of townies don't tend to listen to people they think they can't trust, and lying destroys that semblance of trust.

It's like dating a girl and then cheating on her. She might take you back if you're phenomenal (you know..) but then she'll always look at you weird and she'll never trust you again.

Refallen
Profile Joined August 2010
452 Posts
December 19 2011 10:23 GMT
#3451
And yeah wbg, I really wasn't sure at all who to protect at day 1. Had no idea who the good players were (besides Palmar since he featured prominently in XLVII, the only mafia thread i read). I went with my town read on prplhz, which was then thrown into chaos after Drazerk claimed and I immediately decided to tunnel protect him without considering the motivations behind his claim.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22632 Posts
December 19 2011 10:25 GMT
#3452
On December 19 2011 19:21 wherebugsgo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 19 2011 19:16 Palmar wrote:
Technically it's impossible to lose credibility in mafia games. Also, it's straight up false to say I had anything to do with v7 shooting soap.

Reason you can't lose credibility is because it's irrelevant who writes stuff.


Well, I think it's fairly obvious that people were far less likely to listen to you after you obviously lied (despite being an advocate of LaL)

There's oddly a level of trust, I've noticed, that's involved in mafia games. A lot of townies don't tend to listen to people they think they can't trust, and lying destroys that semblance of trust.

It's like dating a girl and then cheating on her. She might take you back if you're phenomenal (you know..) but then she'll always look at you weird and she'll never trust you again.



Well yeah, your analysis is "Palmar, you forgot to account for stupidity" and yes, that's essentially correct.

And while it should be impossible to lose credibility in mafia games because it's simply irrelevant who writes cases etc, because if the case is written against a townie, it must be wrong by definition, so it doesn't actually matter who writes it because if you analyse the content well enough you will necessarily always reach the correct conclusion.

However, that doesn't change the fact I DID lose credibility because most people play this game incorrectly in this regard (they actually try to analyse people based on shit other people do), and thus you are very much correct about where I did go wrong.
Computer says mafia
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-19 10:33:48
December 19 2011 10:32 GMT
#3453
This was the highlight of the game for me


On December 08 2011 01:04 prplhz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2011 00:54 sandroba wrote:
Pretty damn obvious that syllo shot annul and no retard in his right mind would protect him night1. VOTE ANNUL RIGHT NOW IF YOU VOTE ANYONE ELSE YOU MAFIA.


Holy fuck.

##Vote annul

Sandroba does his compulsory bussing post with as little effort as possible and immediately convinces a townie

e: well actually there was a funnier post but I don't want to be mean
vaderseven
Profile Joined September 2008
United States2556 Posts
December 19 2011 10:33 GMT
#3454
Dont worry palmar Ill be jumping right back in when I can. Probably sometime mid january.

I agree that my play was too role focused. It is actually an insightful statement for not because the concept is new but because my play usually lacks as a blue were it is generally good as green or red. Look at my playstyle as scum in the 80 person game that was before this and you will see a playstyle 100% focused on behavior with a bit of helpfullness thrown in.

I have no fear or shame about playing again, I have gotten past that with gaming over a decade ago. So I lost and it was vecause I persinally played poorly. Great! Just means I have a clear path to mentally take to improve. I very much look forward to playing this game much better on my next run here on TL.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
December 19 2011 10:34 GMT
#3455
On December 19 2011 19:23 Refallen wrote:
And yeah wbg, I really wasn't sure at all who to protect at day 1. Had no idea who the good players were (besides Palmar since he featured prominently in XLVII, the only mafia thread i read). I went with my town read on prplhz, which was then thrown into chaos after Drazerk claimed and I immediately decided to tunnel protect him without considering the motivations behind his claim.


yeah, protecting vets isn't foolproof but it's far easier that way.

The only time I was ever a protective role, I succeeded n1 and then failed/succeeded n2, practically for the same reasons you succeeded/failed but backwards.

This was Ace's Some Mafia Game about three months ago and I rolled jailkeeper. On n1, I protected the person I thought was making most sense, Zona. I didn't know who Zona was, but I figured that I must be protecting a good player! Turned out Zona was shot that night by scum (and Z was also a type of vig who shot the town NRA member that night) and I protected Z from a hit. I also protected Z from suiciding, since visiting an NRA member results in being shot.

The next day, GMarshal (playing through a smurf, also a very good player) claimed dayvig and shot a townie, iGrok. At the time I was actually completely fine with iGrok dying, and figured that GM would be shot by scum. More or less, I protected him because of his role.

Bad idea; he was actually a scum dayvig. I died that same night because the serial killer decided to be a dick. From then on I've been very wary of alignment/role distinction; I try my best not to confuse role with alignment and vice versa.

Luckily in postgame I found out that I prevented GM from shooting someone, which was nice serendipity, I guess. I had used the possibility as a rationalization for protecting him. The rationalization was basically something like this:

1. If he's a town vig and he has only one bullet, he's already used it so roleblocking him won't do anything, and he's a good target. Protect!

2. If he's a town vig and still has a bullet I'll prevent him from randomly shooting another townie tomorrow!

Ofc, in #2 you can replace "town" with "scum" and it still works (turned out exactly that way)
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22632 Posts
December 19 2011 10:35 GMT
#3456
On December 19 2011 19:33 vaderseven wrote:
I agree that my play was too role focused. It is actually an insightful statement for not because the concept is new but because my play usually lacks as a blue were it is generally good as green or red.


I've never understood this, there is exactly no difference in playing as blue or green, it's 100% exactly the same. Anyone who disagrees is dumb.
Computer says mafia
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
December 19 2011 10:35 GMT
#3457
Sorry but this post has to be highlighted for epicness and hilarity. It certainly made me smile every single time I read it:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291212&currentpage=88#1742

MAFIA!
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
December 19 2011 10:38 GMT
#3458
On December 19 2011 19:32 syllogism wrote:
This was the highlight of the game for me


Show nested quote +
On December 08 2011 01:04 prplhz wrote:
On December 08 2011 00:54 sandroba wrote:
Pretty damn obvious that syllo shot annul and no retard in his right mind would protect him night1. VOTE ANNUL RIGHT NOW IF YOU VOTE ANYONE ELSE YOU MAFIA.


Holy fuck.

##Vote annul

Sandroba does his compulsory bussing post with as little effort as possible and immediately convinces a townie

e: well actually there was a funnier post but I don't want to be mean


LOL that post made me laugh for a good while
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22632 Posts
December 19 2011 10:41 GMT
#3459
On December 19 2011 16:37 redFF wrote:
sorry palmar


haha don't worry about it man, I shot you in ptp remember.
Computer says mafia
xsksc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United Kingdom1044 Posts
December 19 2011 10:53 GMT
#3460
Thanks for the analysis wbg, I'll try and work on being more vocal and persuasive with my reads next game.
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