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On November 27 2011 20:40 wherebugsgo wrote:
the difference between day 2 and day 3 is that the DTs actually have a chance at knowing their sanities on day 3.
the DTs might have a chance at this. THE TOWN WILL NOT. if a DT is sanity-aware he is not going to come out on day fucking 3 dude with a "HEY IM DT KILL THIS RED GUY HERE."
The difference between day 2 and day 3 is that (on average) at least a half dozen more dead people will exist on day 3 than day 2.
point being... ?
The difference between day 2 and day 3 is that we are statistically drastically more likely to hit scum than town on day 3 than day 2.
this is factually invalid for reasons stated about 800 times already
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ebwop: factually irrelevant*
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No, it isn't.
It doesn't take a genius to know that a 30% chance at hitting scum is 1.5 times more than a 20% chance at hitting scum.
And ofc a DT would claim day 3 if he's determined his sanity. We have medics for that purpose, if it turns out he was a liar we lynch him instead.
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Alright let me introduce ...
prplhz's DT plan
Woo!
This is a slight alteration of wherebugsgo's DT plan which was a modified BloodyC0bbbler's DT plan. I'm thinking that instead of the list that wherebugsgo posted, that Palmar is going to post a new version of in a second, we have DTs check into this list:
wherebugsgo
kitaman27
sandroba
syllogism
deconduo
Jackal58
annul
LSB
Coagulation
bumatlarge
"How did you pick out those people?" you ask. These are the people I know by reputation and/or experience that they can win or lose the game for town/mafia. But why pick these guys over the list wherebugsgo/Palmar posted/will post? Because then we don't have to use lynches or vig hits (or banes) to kill off the people on it. These guys will either get killed off by scum or they will come under a TON of scrutiny and their alignment determined by analysis or a possible lynch. There are still 10 people on the list so potential framers will still be just as useless for scum to manipulate DT checks as with the other list.
The guys on this list are known to make logical call so we can call them out on their actions, it is going to be hard to determine some of the alignment on wherebugsgo's list because there are a couple of newbies in there who cannot be trusted to make townie calls no matter what their alignment is. This means that we're going to waste vig hits or lynches to flip them. With my list, we will outsource the killings to the bad guys while being able to determine alignment more easily because these guys can actually be trusted to make townie calls when townies and less townie calls when scum.
Disregarding the list I made, what do you think about the plan itself?
About Double Lynches
This was the situation I was warning about. Right now syllogism doesn't trust Palmar and he has no reason to trust Palmar (he had no reason to trust sandroba either but that's another story). Palmar says that he knows that he is town so he will do what he thinks is best for town (that is, skipping early double lynches. Whether or not this is actually true I'm not going to talk about). syllogism says that he knows that he is town but he doesn't know that Palmar is town. From syllogism's town point of view Palmar should be double lynching early on. From Palmar's town point of view Palmar should not. Who is right? Nobody is right because we don't know their alignments.
I am on syllogism's side because I am in syllogism's situation. I don't see why wherebugsgo isn't on syllogism's side because he is also in syllogism's situation. If the mayor was a person who was less arrogant (sorry Palmar but you know that I am right), more easily threatened with a lynch (Palmar won election convincingly, he is not going to get lynched regardless of alignment), then he would listen to town. What we did was what I warned against, we put all our eggs in one basket and then we pushed it into the river and now we have no control anymore. Cool enough if Palmar is town, less cool if he isn't.
Palmar, what if bodyguards start dying, wouldn't you be worried about the double lynches then? That is, if BloodyC0bbler actually is scum. How do you know that BloodyC0bbler isn't scum and that you should try to use the double lynches very fast? I think the risk of these double lynches going to hell far outweighs the risk of having a double lynch on day2 as opposed to on day6. We should be able to catch scum on day2. As for delaying this to lynch into the list-of-10, look at my plan above detailing how we can outsource those killings.
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prpl the whole point of my plan was to get DTs their sanities.
Your plan doesn't really do anything unless the DTs can determine that they have the correct reads. One check on any player is totally useless.
You need multiple checks with some of those checks dying in order to determine sanity. You need at least two flips, sometimes three, in order to determine a detective's sanity.
Also, I just explained why I'm not on syllo's side.
Do the math. (it's just a bunch of counting anyway)
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On November 27 2011 20:45 wherebugsgo wrote:
It is optimal for town regardless of Palmar's alignment to wait until day 3 to double lynch.
the only way for this to be true is if the game is played 100% on random chance. we will have eight clues tomorrow.
and we are already behind. we need to save one more person from unnecessarily dying. it could very well mean the difference. like kitaman's math said, if we have eleven CONSECUTIVE, correct single lynches, we still lose without a blue save. its tight enough as it is. if you think that we are too dumb to correctly peg reds on day 2 then we are too dumb to win the game because thats EXACTLY what we need to be doing: pegging reds without any error from here on out.
and we are already losing at least 9 players (and generally speaking the inactives are veeeeeery rarely on the red team). why make our scenario harder than it needs to be, even if its by a percentage point?
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On November 27 2011 20:40 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2011 20:37 xtfftc wrote:
(+/- 1 KP for mafia on night 2 won't change the game that dramatically)
are you fucking serious? FOS xtfftc
Yes, in a game with so much KP (mafia starts with 8, mayor can doublelynch, there are probably both town and mafia vigilanties, and there are also likely to be both town and mafia lurker hunters), just one won't make that much of a difference. One of the reasons why I support double lynch on day 2 is precisely because I don't think that mislynching would be that much of a tragedy for town, so the risk is worth taking.
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apparently im awake at a time when only red team players are online
maybe in a few hours some actual good guys will log on and stop the WBG/palmar/etc circlejerk
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On November 27 2011 20:51 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2011 20:45 wherebugsgo wrote:
It is optimal for town regardless of Palmar's alignment to wait until day 3 to double lynch. the only way for this to be true is if the game is played 100% on random chance. we will have eight clues tomorrow. and we are already behind. we need to save one more person from unnecessarily dying. it could very well mean the difference. like kitaman's math said, if we have eleven CONSECUTIVE, correct single lynches, we still lose without a blue save. its tight enough as it is. if you think that we are too dumb to correctly peg reds on day 2 then we are too dumb to win the game because thats EXACTLY what we need to be doing: pegging reds without any error from here on out. and we are already losing at least 9 players (and generally speaking the inactives are veeeeeery rarely on the red team). why make our scenario harder than it needs to be, even if its by a percentage point?
you're fear mongering based on ONE mislynch.
Kitaman omitted medic protects and vig shots. Kitaman omitted double lynches which is again dumb unless there are two scum in office.
Now imagine we lynch two townies on day 2 instead of 1 townie. Oh yay, we die a day earlier!
As I have said at least three times already, if Palmar doesn't double lynch on day 3 we lynch him.
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On November 27 2011 20:37 xtfftc wrote:annul, it is optimal to use double lynches later (+/- 1 KP for mafia on night 2 won't change the game that dramatically) and syllogism did agree that Show nested quote +On November 27 2011 20:22 syllogism wrote:
WBG have you been reading? I know it's optimal for town to delay double lynches if we are guaranteed to get to use them all, but as we don't know that, it's safer to not delay unless I'm reading it wrong, his concern is that assuming that Palmar will live long enough to use all double lynches is too much of a risk because we have no reason to believe he's a townie (for now) and thus we are likely to lynch him soon
On November 27 2011 20:54 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2011 20:40 annul wrote:On November 27 2011 20:37 xtfftc wrote:
(+/- 1 KP for mafia on night 2 won't change the game that dramatically)
are you fucking serious? FOS xtfftc Yes, in a game with so much KP (mafia starts with 8, mayor can doublelynch, there are probably both town and mafia vigilanties, and there are also likely to be both town and mafia lurker hunters), just one won't make that much of a difference. One of the reasons why I support double lynch on day 2 is precisely because I don't think that mislynching would be that much of a tragedy for town, so the risk is worth taking.
whoa wtf
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On November 27 2011 20:25 annul wrote:
okay.
no blues can kill tonight, right? no night 1 vigs, etc. this means that unless we double lynch tomorrow and are successful, it is ONE HUNDRED PERCENT THE CASE that, unless one of the modkills is a red, we will have mafia at 8 KP tonight AND mafia at 8 KP tomorrow.
however, if we double lynch and win, mafia only has 7 KP tomorrow night.
since the presumption is we will use all double lynches eventually, there is absolutely no coherent reason why we should not try to save 1 more townie using the town's logical redhunting skills (and not rely solely on the blue guys). we will have eight clues. reds gonna die.
argue against this logic SPECIFICALLY, now, palmar. why do you want 16 dead instead of 15?
No problem. I'll actually just do the analysis on it right now. I want to say that I have never played in a clue game where clues have led to a successful lynch. I don't do clue analysis myself, instead relying on behavior. You seem to be pretty certain we can get a guaranteed lynch from clues only, which I find very strange.
You present the argument that using a double lynch today gives us the option of killing two people tomorrow, thus reducing mafia KP by 1. Let's consider all the possible results. I am ignoring the possibility of veterans and medics for this argument, as they should have very similar effect on both scenarios.
Scenario A - We don't double lynch:
We lose 17 players from town. 8 tonight, 8 from tomorrow night, and 1 from the mislynch.
We lose 16 players from town, 8 tonight, 8 tomorrow night and Kill 1 mafia from the correct lynch
Scenario B - We double lynch:
We lose 18 players from town, 8 tonight, 8 from tomorrow night, and 2 from the mislynches.
We lose 17 players from town, 8 tonight, 8 from tomorrow night, and 1 from the mislynch, we kill 1 mafia through correct lynch
We lose 15 players from town, 8 tonight, 7 tomorrow night, and kill 2 mafia through correct lynch.
When I look at it like that, I almost agree with annul. the worst possible scenario is losing one extra townie, but it does give us an extra chance to hit mafia. The only problem with this is that we lose the day 6 mislynch. But with 8 mafia KP, the hosts will certainly have given town a fuckton of KP roles just to be able to keep up.
Not to mention, now that I think about it, if we put down two lynches tomorrow, our vigs can possibly do something useful with their shots tomorrow night.
@WBG and Syllo: Can you please look this over and tell me if I am wrong on something? By now it looks almost optimal for me to double lynch tonight?
On November 27 2011 20:39 annul wrote:
palmar did not address this when i asked him to. its funny how he shirks away from the shit i call him out on, just like on day 1
The fact I'm tentatively agreeing with you, pending review, doesn't change the fact that I hate you for making bullshit comments like this that hold no value to the game.
What really happened is that I had to go out and pick up my daughter who stayed with her grandparents over the night.
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On November 27 2011 20:51 annul wrote:
and we are already behind. we need to save one more person from unnecessarily dying. it could very well mean the difference.
This is fearmongering, stop it.
We're not behind, no mafia game is balanced around town somehow being at a huge disadvantage from mislynching on day 1. You're actively sabotaging town with this attitude.
Btw, prplhz's idea is dumb. I almost regret not just lynching him last night.
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Every single one of our vigs should be shooting WhereBugsGo so hard tonight.
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i am happy to see that you might be seeing the light.
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On November 27 2011 21:15 deconduo wrote:
Every single one of our vigs should be shooting WhereBugsGo so hard tonight.
vigs cant shoot tonight dude
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On November 27 2011 21:14 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2011 20:51 annul wrote:
and we are already behind. we need to save one more person from unnecessarily dying. it could very well mean the difference. This is fearmongering, stop it. We're not behind, no mafia game is balanced around town somehow being at a huge disadvantage from mislynching on day 1. You're actively sabotaging town with this attitude.
the only active sabotage of the town would be a refusal to activate double lynch day 2. everything else is just debate
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On November 27 2011 21:15 deconduo wrote:
Every single one of our vigs should be shooting WhereBugsGo so hard tonight.
Incorrect, mostly because our vigis can't actually shoot tonight, but also because if WBG is scum, he'd know I'm town and thus see no reason for supporting the idea of withholding the kills, as he'd know I'd always use the double lynches as promised on days 3-6.
So the only option for WBG to be pushing mafia agenda here is if you either believe both of us are scum, or that he's scum trying to buddy up to me.
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On November 27 2011 21:19 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2011 21:14 Palmar wrote:On November 27 2011 20:51 annul wrote:
and we are already behind. we need to save one more person from unnecessarily dying. it could very well mean the difference. This is fearmongering, stop it. We're not behind, no mafia game is balanced around town somehow being at a huge disadvantage from mislynching on day 1. You're actively sabotaging town with this attitude. the only active sabotage of the town would be a refusal to activate double lynch day 2. everything else is just debate
No, activating the double lynch is a risk/reward situation that depends on how confident we are in our ability to find mafia, which is something that cannot be measurable. That's debate.
Saying we're behind when we aren't, that's not debate, that's fearmongering.
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On November 27 2011 20:40 wherebugsgo wrote:
omfg.
the difference between day 2 and day 3 is that the DTs actually have a chance at knowing their sanities on day 3.
Okay, let's say you're a DT.
You check someone on Night 1.
On Day 2 we use a single lynch.
You check someone else on Night 2 and confirm your sanity.
Then on Day 3 we use double lynch.
How does having your sanity confirmed help our lynch? Do you expect a DT to claim on day 3?
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On November 27 2011 21:15 deconduo wrote:
Every single one of our vigs should be shooting WhereBugsGo so hard tonight.
lololol
try reading the thread.
On November 27 2011 21:07 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2011 20:25 annul wrote:
okay.
no blues can kill tonight, right? no night 1 vigs, etc. this means that unless we double lynch tomorrow and are successful, it is ONE HUNDRED PERCENT THE CASE that, unless one of the modkills is a red, we will have mafia at 8 KP tonight AND mafia at 8 KP tomorrow.
however, if we double lynch and win, mafia only has 7 KP tomorrow night.
since the presumption is we will use all double lynches eventually, there is absolutely no coherent reason why we should not try to save 1 more townie using the town's logical redhunting skills (and not rely solely on the blue guys). we will have eight clues. reds gonna die.
argue against this logic SPECIFICALLY, now, palmar. why do you want 16 dead instead of 15? No problem. I'll actually just do the analysis on it right now. I want to say that I have never played in a clue game where clues have led to a successful lynch. I don't do clue analysis myself, instead relying on behavior. You seem to be pretty certain we can get a guaranteed lynch from clues only, which I find very strange. You present the argument that using a double lynch today gives us the option of killing two people tomorrow, thus reducing mafia KP by 1. Let's consider all the possible results. I am ignoring the possibility of veterans and medics for this argument, as they should have very similar effect on both scenarios. Scenario A - We don't double lynch:We lose 17 players from town. 8 tonight, 8 from tomorrow night, and 1 from the mislynch. We lose 16 players from town, 8 tonight, 8 tomorrow night and Kill 1 mafia from the correct lynch Scenario B - We double lynch:We lose 18 players from town, 8 tonight, 8 from tomorrow night, and 2 from the mislynches. We lose 17 players from town, 8 tonight, 8 from tomorrow night, and 1 from the mislynch, we kill 1 mafia through correct lynch We lose 15 players from town, 8 tonight, 7 tomorrow night, and kill 2 mafia through correct lynch.
When I look at it like that, I almost agree with annul. the worst possible scenario is losing one extra townie, but it does give us an extra chance to hit mafia. The only problem with this is that we lose the day 6 mislynch. But with 8 mafia KP, the hosts will certainly have given town a fuckton of KP roles just to be able to keep up. Not to mention, now that I think about it, if we put down two lynches tomorrow, our vigs can possibly do something useful with their shots tomorrow night. @WBG and Syllo: Can you please look this over and tell me if I am wrong on something? By now it looks almost optimal for me to double lynch tonight? Show nested quote +On November 27 2011 20:39 annul wrote:
palmar did not address this when i asked him to. its funny how he shirks away from the shit i call him out on, just like on day 1 The fact I'm tentatively agreeing with you, pending review, doesn't change the fact that I hate you for making bullshit comments like this that hold no value to the game. What really happened is that I had to go out and pick up my daughter who stayed with her grandparents over the night.
Personally I think it's still optimal to wait until day 3 because it greatly reduces the chance we hit 2 townies and increases the amount of time we have for analysis.
The reason I say this is because I think (and hope) we'll be lynching tomorrow outside of the pool of 10 players that we want to vig through the DT plan. If anyone follows through with it we'll find out on morning of day 3 which of those players are dead, if any.
Since we'll be lynching into the remaining players tomorrow, who are, by definition, our secondary scumreads, I think we should only be focusing on one person.
Now the other alternative obviously is to simply lynch two of the people who are on the DT check list, but then it kinda defeats the purpose of including them on the list in the first place.
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EPT
