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TL Mafia XLVII - Page 100

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sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 27 2011 14:08 GMT
#1981
So you are cool at using a fuckton of vig shots early on. Please enlighten me to how this is optimal, as oposed to saving them for when we have more concrete reads. 1 vig is worth 5 DTs in this game. I hope to god that no vig is stupid enough to follow your plan.
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
November 27 2011 14:08 GMT
#1982
@sandroba

Rofl. So you want DTs, who don't know their sanity, to check into people who are impossible to read? And then you want us to lynch those people so that DTs can get to know their sanity? Because people who are impossible to read are not going to get shot by mafia. I don't know this seems like a pretty silly idea.
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 27 2011 14:13 GMT
#1983
No, if you bother to read you will realise that I didn't sugest we kill anyone who dts are checking, not only because it is impossible since we won't know who the fuck is getting checked. I didn't say impossible to read eitheir. Multiple people will die in the natural course of the game and sanities will get figure out by that event. By the time we run out of obvious scummy people to lynch, DT checks on others will help us figure out who is innocent and who is not.
If you keep sprouting nonsense I'll push you hard, I know from last game you can play very well.
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
November 27 2011 14:15 GMT
#1984
On November 27 2011 14:27 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 27 2011 14:12 annul wrote:
when are inactivity modkills gonna be revealed?

We're currently looking for replacements. Any slots we don't have replacements for should be modkilled on Day 2.


Whilst the risk of this happening should have been somewhat apparent due to the large number of players and the rapidly growing thread i feel i need to draw some attention to this issue. Namely we currently stand to lose a number of players to modkills
i have identified several possible reasons for this:
On November 27 2011 11:52 Soap wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 27 2011 11:05 wherebugsgo wrote:
3. Soap

One game-relevant post. Two posts about timestamps. Useless.

Again, an excellent lurker-bane shot.


Sorry if I didn't make myself clear in my first post. As a newbie I know nothing metagame, which is about everything this early. If I go out of my way to catch up with the veterans, bad analysis would harm town and good analysis would make mafia drop me in ten seconds flat. Once we have actual hard data to put against what I'm witnessing first hand I can make myself useful.

On November 27 2011 15:27 Mattchew wrote:
I honestly do not know what to say in this thread. I have no feelings as to who is scum and who is town, I don't want to point fingers and end up being wrong because I don't truly understand what I am reading.


there have been multiple post such as this one, we have very little information day1 and it is only natural to feel like you cannot add to discussion and at the same time you do not wish to derail it or appear "scummy" and end up making town waste a lynch and end your game because you make a mistake. This is bad! You should be contributing all you can BUT still this stance is not hard to understand

there have also been a number of players referring to past experiences or games they have shared with other players. This may well be helpful to you if your are/were involved but this shared past history makes players appear to be part often established community that is highly critical of its members and thus discourages newbies from joining in,

there have also been several aggressive shouting matches between players, this post from GM says it all
On November 25 2011 09:56 GMarshal wrote:
Any further mudslinging from either of you (wbg and redff) is going to result in my wrath. If you can't say things in a civil manner then stay the hell out of my thread. Consider this your first and only warning, lighting looms on the horizon.


lastly even though it doesn't take a genuis to figure out that this will involve a lot of reading at the time of writing this we approach the 100th page (though the first 20-24 were pre-game) and we haven't yet reached day 2.Much of this may have been useful dicussion but there is also a sizable number of one liners, unsupported and unproductive statements, trolls insults and general useless crap. I really feel that we should address this last point in particular and i feel this filter is a prime example of the useless crap that is wasting our time and costing us noobs:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=285690&user=81734

also: assume you are a noob entering your first mafia game and you get a red or a blue role! You are likely to feel important as you get to make or contribute to life or death decisions, you get to make calls in secret and you have to carefully consider your actions and their implications... the game is interesting and you get to play an interesting part in it. Contrast this with the vanilla townie role in which you have to argue with established aggressive arrogant players you feel you will be ignored and you may or may not be struggling to keep up with the thread and you are not sure what to search for when making reads because before starting you have perhaps only read LSB's newbie guide (wich bears no relation to Ver's guide) and 1-3 full games at best.i realise that modkills may hurt mafia just as much but if it favors one side to me at least it seems that modkills would be more likely to work against town.
+ Show Spoiler +
side note: if you haven't read a noob guide please do so, and if you are playing in a way that isn't helpful you might benefit from a read too


I do not feel that we have created a particularly pro-town, newbie friendly atmosphere and that creating one will very much increase our chances of victory
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
November 27 2011 14:21 GMT
#1985
reading 78 filters is hard as hell.
Computer says mafia
xtfftc
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom2343 Posts
November 27 2011 14:27 GMT
#1986
there have also been a number of players referring to past experiences or games they have shared with other players. This may well be helpful to you if your are/were involved but this shared past history makes players appear to be part often established community that is highly critical of its members and thus discourages newbies from joining in,

I posted a very similar post in my first game of mafia (this is the fourth) but pretty soon I realised that you can't expect the more experienced players not to take into account and discuss other players' histories.. That's just the way the game works. Instead of worrying about this, complete newbies can think of it as an advantage: a good player can and will attempt to change his play in order to confuse those who are familiar with him/her. The best thing one can do is simply to start playing. If you pay attention to the thread, you'll notice that even the best players' attempts to analyse are being downplayed all the time. This is all part of the game.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 27 2011 14:32 GMT
#1987
Speaking of LSB's newbie guide, where are you?
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
November 27 2011 14:37 GMT
#1988
On November 27 2011 23:02 wherebugsgo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 27 2011 22:49 sandroba wrote:
WBG is suspicious as fuck. He wants to flip 10 people by day 3, but somehow was against day 2 double lynch. Go figure.
Annul made off my list of suspects.


Read again, sandro.

I said I'm fine with the double lynch if we lynch into the list of 10.

I was mostly against double lynching day 2 because it's sub optimal, particularly when you're lynching outside of your best scumreads. If we lynch into that list of 10 before day 3 it kinda defeats the purpose of the plan.

However since I doubt lynching outside those 10 would be very productive, I said I'd support the double lynch.

Bullshit.

+ Show Spoiler +
On November 27 2011 21:22 wherebugsgo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 27 2011 21:15 deconduo wrote:
Every single one of our vigs should be shooting WhereBugsGo so hard tonight.


lololol

try reading the thread.

Show nested quote +
On November 27 2011 21:07 Palmar wrote:
On November 27 2011 20:25 annul wrote:
okay.

no blues can kill tonight, right? no night 1 vigs, etc. this means that unless we double lynch tomorrow and are successful, it is ONE HUNDRED PERCENT THE CASE that, unless one of the modkills is a red, we will have mafia at 8 KP tonight AND mafia at 8 KP tomorrow.

however, if we double lynch and win, mafia only has 7 KP tomorrow night.

since the presumption is we will use all double lynches eventually, there is absolutely no coherent reason why we should not try to save 1 more townie using the town's logical redhunting skills (and not rely solely on the blue guys). we will have eight clues. reds gonna die.

argue against this logic SPECIFICALLY, now, palmar. why do you want 16 dead instead of 15?


No problem. I'll actually just do the analysis on it right now. I want to say that I have never played in a clue game where clues have led to a successful lynch. I don't do clue analysis myself, instead relying on behavior. You seem to be pretty certain we can get a guaranteed lynch from clues only, which I find very strange.

You present the argument that using a double lynch today gives us the option of killing two people tomorrow, thus reducing mafia KP by 1. Let's consider all the possible results. I am ignoring the possibility of veterans and medics for this argument, as they should have very similar effect on both scenarios.

Scenario A - We don't double lynch:

We lose 17 players from town. 8 tonight, 8 from tomorrow night, and 1 from the mislynch.

We lose 16 players from town, 8 tonight, 8 tomorrow night and Kill 1 mafia from the correct lynch

Scenario B - We double lynch:

We lose 18 players from town, 8 tonight, 8 from tomorrow night, and 2 from the mislynches.

We lose 17 players from town, 8 tonight, 8 from tomorrow night, and 1 from the mislynch, we kill 1 mafia through correct lynch

We lose 15 players from town, 8 tonight, 7 tomorrow night, and kill 2 mafia through correct lynch.




When I look at it like that, I almost agree with annul. the worst possible scenario is losing one extra townie, but it does give us an extra chance to hit mafia. The only problem with this is that we lose the day 6 mislynch. But with 8 mafia KP, the hosts will certainly have given town a fuckton of KP roles just to be able to keep up.

Not to mention, now that I think about it, if we put down two lynches tomorrow, our vigs can possibly do something useful with their shots tomorrow night.

@WBG and Syllo: Can you please look this over and tell me if I am wrong on something? By now it looks almost optimal for me to double lynch tonight?

On November 27 2011 20:39 annul wrote:
palmar did not address this when i asked him to. its funny how he shirks away from the shit i call him out on, just like on day 1


The fact I'm tentatively agreeing with you, pending review, doesn't change the fact that I hate you for making bullshit comments like this that hold no value to the game.

What really happened is that I had to go out and pick up my daughter who stayed with her grandparents over the night.


Personally I think it's still optimal to wait until day 3 because it greatly reduces the chance we hit 2 townies and increases the amount of time we have for analysis.

The reason I say this is because I think (and hope) we'll be lynching tomorrow outside of the pool of 10 players that we want to vig through the DT plan. If anyone follows through with it we'll find out on morning of day 3 which of those players are dead, if any.

Since we'll be lynching into the remaining players tomorrow, who are, by definition, our secondary scumreads, I think we should only be focusing on one person.

Now the other alternative obviously is to simply lynch two of the people who are on the DT check list, but then it kinda defeats the purpose of including them on the list in the first place.

You say it's an alternative that defeats the purpose of your list.
Life can only kill you once.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
November 27 2011 14:40 GMT
#1989
More names for the list:

Player: Tyrran
Filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=285690&user=57176
Reason: I was expecting Tyrran to really give us something this game. I have a reason to believe he is very capable of critical thinking. Sadly he has not done anything relevant this game, he has exactly one post in the game. He hasn't simply been absent because he is posting in another game. I'm not sure how to read this complete lack of activity, but it does contrast with the way I'd expect him to play as town.

Player: bonifaceviii
Filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=285690&user=79019
Reason: All he's done this game is joke around and offer summaries of the current situation.Read through his filter, especially page 2. He has a huge post with very little content where he simply lists the candidates. His next post is some theorycrafting post about the possible outcome of the elections. His later posts are slightly better, but there is very little content in them that looks like genuine town.

I'm done with around the first third of the player list filters, those two stood out to me.

For those who want quick access to everyone's filter and have missed it so far:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Aolx7msuf_IvdDNsN1dIbnNWcXJVaEFzU1AwN05sdUE&output=html
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
November 27 2011 14:41 GMT
#1990
Btw, I'm ignoring completely inactive people unless I have a reason not to ignore them (for example: Tyrran).

I expect them to get modkilled or lurker killed.

Again, I need a break. Will be back with more names later.
Computer says mafia
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50584 Posts
November 27 2011 14:44 GMT
#1991
I'm not scum,don't waste your lynch on my please.
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
November 27 2011 14:45 GMT
#1992
On November 27 2011 23:44 BLinD-RawR wrote:
I'm not scum,don't waste your lynch on my please.


At what point in the game can we expect you to actually start playing it?
Computer says mafia
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 27 2011 14:48 GMT
#1993
Palmar tell me what you think about zeks.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
November 27 2011 14:49 GMT
#1994
Can't read right now sandroba, will do when I come back.
Computer says mafia
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
November 27 2011 14:56 GMT
#1995
On November 27 2011 23:08 sandroba wrote:
So you are cool at using a fuckton of vig shots early on. Please enlighten me to how this is optimal, as oposed to saving them for when we have more concrete reads. 1 vig is worth 5 DTs in this game. I hope to god that no vig is stupid enough to follow your plan.

ok I have to leave in about 7 mins and I haven't read the last 4 pages, will do that while I'm on the train. But that one setence suprised me. You are cooling using double lynches day 2, 3, 4, 5 to get as many kills as possible to reduce mafia kp early on (I suppose?) but you want to wait with vig / bane vig shots?
That's just not makeing sense for me.

But as mentioend, haven't ready everything yet so maybe it is already cleared. Also palmar have you seen that one post talking about one possible scumslips? What do you think about it?
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 27 2011 15:03 GMT
#1996
Lynches =/= Vig shots. Lynches produce information forcing mafia to take stances. If there were no lynches mafia would never have any reason to act in a way that would allow us to identify them, this should be obvious. Vigs act on that information eliminating people who have a high chance of being scum, but provide very little info to town, as no stance towards their alignment is required to be taken by players.
annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
November 27 2011 15:09 GMT
#1997
yo layabout

stop talking about shit in terms of "100 pages" if youre going to then turn around and say "oh but a ton of one liners"

yeah i type one liners because i can say in one line what it takes some people one paragraph.
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
November 27 2011 15:21 GMT
#1998
On November 27 2011 23:27 xtfftc wrote:
Show nested quote +
there have also been a number of players referring to past experiences or games they have shared with other players. This may well be helpful to you if your are/were involved but this shared past history makes players appear to be part often established community that is highly critical of its members and thus discourages newbies from joining in,

I posted a very similar post in my first game of mafia (this is the fourth) but pretty soon I realised that you can't expect the more experienced players not to take into account and discuss other players' histories.. That's just the way the game works. Instead of worrying about this, complete newbies can think of it as an advantage: a good player can and will attempt to change his play in order to confuse those who are familiar with him/her. The best thing one can do is simply to start playing. If you pay attention to the thread, you'll notice that even the best players' attempts to analyse are being downplayed all the time. This is all part of the game.

i agree i just think we need to be mindful of the fact that doing things like this excessively could put players off of contributing i dont think "meta" dicussion is necessarily bad but that it is simply one of the factors that are alienating newer players and if we lose to many via modkills or too many become intimidated, don't post and end up completely useless then town could suffer. + Show Spoiler +
and players may be put off joining a game in the future even though they could potentially be very good, nevertheless the focus should be on optimising our play this game
1st time players will probably make mistakes and we may be stuck with quite a few by the end of the game as no strategies come to my mind for a mafia team that would place noob townies as high-priority targets.so we should create a better atmosphere to allow them to post improve and actually be of use
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
November 27 2011 15:23 GMT
#1999
On November 28 2011 00:09 annul wrote:
yo layabout

stop talking about shit in terms of "100 pages" if youre going to then turn around and say "oh but a ton of one liners"

yeah i type one liners because i can say in one line what it takes some people one paragraph.

Poop.

I can do it in a single word bitch.
Life can only kill you once.
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
November 27 2011 15:26 GMT
#2000
On November 28 2011 00:09 annul wrote:
yo layabout

stop talking about shit in terms of "100 pages" if youre going to then turn around and say "oh but a ton of one liners"

yeah i type one liners because i can say in one line what it takes some people one paragraph.

you have however taken many posts to argue points without making a concious effort to reach a clear conclusion and instead you have had shouting matches, if you are unsure of what im talking about check the last few pages.and how many of you one liners have you supported with evidence to make a clear case for whatever it is you are saying?
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
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