EPTTL Mafia XLVII - Page 97
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:24 syllogism wrote: Thankfully I don't have to discuss this with you as palmar is much smarter and doesn't care the slightest about what you think about this, so I'll just go back to ignoring you wbg I don't care for your constant personal insults on my intelligence. It doesn't further your argument and it never has. You call this a game of statistics and you even admit that it would be optimal to use the double lynches later than day 2, but because you don't actually care about town objectives you're destroying the credibility of everyone who disagrees with you. Congratulations, you're now the most anti-town player in the game. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:27 supersoft wrote: wbg seriously, why do you trust palmar like that. I don't want to lynch him, I even voted him as mayor and I think I'd do it again, but I still can't trust him 100%. I don't trust anyone. | ||
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:27 wherebugsgo wrote: I don't care for your constant personal insults on my intelligence. It doesn't further your argument and it never has. You call this a game of statistics and you even admit that it would be optimal to use the double lynches later than day 2, but because you don't actually care about town objectives you're destroying the credibility of everyone who disagrees with you. Congratulations, you're now the most anti-town player in the game. thats not true. He admits, that doublelynching later in the game is optimal if the mayor is condirmed town. Since noone is confirmed, that plan is not the optimal plan anymore. You have to take the risks into consideration. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:27 wherebugsgo wrote: and you even admit that it would be optimal to use the double lynches later than day 2 please quote this directly. quote directly where syllo said that its optimal to use double lynch later than day 2? | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
no i dont | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:22 syllogism wrote: WBG have you been reading? I know it's optimal for town to delay double lynches if we are guaranteed to get to use them all, but as we don't know that, it's safer to not delay The caveat is "if we are guaranteed to use them all" If we don't double lynch on day 3 then we kill Palmar. That's how simple the solution is. If there are two scum in office then we will never get to use double lynches, ever. But if there is even one town in office we will get all of them. Syllo is fear mongering. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
IF IF IF he didnt say it was optimal to use double lynches later than day 2! why did you just blatantly attempt to mislead people with your highly fallacious characterization? | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:30 supersoft wrote: thats not true. He admits, that doublelynching later in the game is optimal if the mayor is condirmed town. Since noone is confirmed, that plan is not the optimal plan anymore. You have to take the risks into consideration. use your brain. We have four double lynches. We will last long enough even if Palmar is scum and he doesn't double lynch day 3 to use them all. As I just said, if Palmar doesn't double lynch day 3 we lynch him. It's actually more beneficial for him as scum to double lynch on day 3, because it preserves his own life. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:33 annul wrote: IF IF IF IF he didnt say it was optimal to use double lynches later than day 2! why did you just blatantly attempt to mislead people with your highly fallacious characterization? It's not fallacious because regardless of the mayor/sheriff's alignment combination (other than two scum) we will get all the double lynches! Double lynching on day 2 is moronic, there will be way too many players left. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
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xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:22 syllogism wrote: WBG have you been reading? I know it's optimal for town to delay double lynches if we are guaranteed to get to use them all, but as we don't know that, it's safer to not delay unless I'm reading it wrong, his concern is that assuming that Palmar will live long enough to use all double lynches is too much of a risk because we have no reason to believe he's a townie (for now) and thus we are likely to lynch him soon | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
We single lynch tomorrow. If we kill a townie, whatever, it's one townie. On day 3 the pool of players will be considerably smaller. We double lynch then. If Palmar doesn't double lynch on day 3 we kill him the next day. In that case he will probably be scum, and if BC is town we use the double lynch on day 4 and every day after. We will get all of them as long as one of the officials is town. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:36 annul wrote: it is fallacious because you said that he said it was optimal to wait until after day 2 to use the double lynch. he did not actually say this. no. YOUR argument is fallacious because it assumes that if Palmar is scum we lose some of the double lynches. I sincerely hope no one listens to you, because it's honestly shocking you actually think you make sense. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
no more blues will be coming out. we will not have DT information. we will have 16 clues and thus, only one clue on each member of the red team (so no overlapping clues yet, so no better info than otherwise). except on day 2 if you do not double lynch, the town loses 16 instead of 15. palmar did not address this when i asked him to. its funny how he shirks away from the shit i call him out on, just like on day 1 | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:37 xtfftc wrote: (+/- 1 KP for mafia on night 2 won't change the game that dramatically) are you fucking serious? FOS xtfftc | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
the difference between day 2 and day 3 is that the DTs actually have a chance at knowing their sanities on day 3. The difference between day 2 and day 3 is that (on average) at least a half dozen more dead people will exist on day 3 than day 2. The difference between day 2 and day 3 is that we are statistically drastically more likely to hit scum than town on day 3 than day 2. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:39 annul wrote: what is the difference between day 2 and day 3? no more blues will be coming out. we will not have DT information. we will have 16 clues and thus, only one clue on each member of the red team (so no overlapping clues yet, so no better info than otherwise). except on day 2 if you do not double lynch, the town loses 16 instead of 15. palmar did not address this when i asked him to. its funny how he shirks away from the shit i call him out on, just like on day 1 except you're assuming we'll hit two scum on day 2 with our double lynch, and judging from your logic, I'm pretty sure we'll hit two town instead. If people like you are town, we will certainly hit two townies if we try to double lynch today. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:27 wherebugsgo wrote: and you even admit that it would be optimal to use the double lynches later than day 2 On November 27 2011 20:30 annul wrote: please quote this directly. quote directly where syllo said that its optimal to use double lynch later than day 2? he specifically said "its safer to not delay." he SPECIFICALLY said exactly the opposite of what you are claiming he said. you took syllo arguing a conditional that does not exist and then saying he is making that case for the current scenario... even when he said outright he is not doing so. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
It is optimal for town regardless of Palmar's alignment to wait until day 3 to double lynch. If you cannot see this, I am not surprised, but I am not wasting my effort trying to convince you to see that. I'll simply be putting my effort into more productive things, like, for example, getting people like you lynched tomorrow. | ||
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