EPTTL Mafia XLVII - Page 96
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annul
United States2841 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:11 syllogism wrote: Yes, but that is irrelevant LOL | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:11 syllogism wrote: Yes, but that is irrelevant That's the answer I needed. To myself I am confirmed town, and we agree it's optimal to wait until day 3 assuming a confirmed town in the mayor seat. Unless I hear very compelling arguments as for why I should double lynch today, I am very much open to reason. If I was presented with two very convincing cases for scum, I'd change my mind. You see, I don't actually care if you threaten to lynch me day 2 because I do not comply with what you want. I want to play optimally, and I think day 3 double lynch and onwards is optimal play for town. If BC is town and I somehow get lynched tomorrow it doesn't matter much, as he can easily activate the double lynches. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
I know you are quite thick, but there is no way for him to be "modconfirmed town" by day 2 | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:16 Palmar wrote: That's the answer I needed. To myself I am confirmed town, and we agree it's optimal to wait until day 3 assuming a confirmed town in the mayor seat. Unless I hear very compelling arguments as for why I should double lynch today, I am very much open to reason. If I was presented with two very convincing cases for scum, I'd change my mind. You see, I don't actually care if you threaten to lynch me day 2 because I do not comply with what you want. I want to play optimally, and I think day 3 double lynch and onwards is optimal play for town. If BC is town and I somehow get lynched tomorrow it doesn't matter much, as he can easily activate the double lynches. Do you think the slight information gains outweigh the time wasted when town spends all day arguing about whether you are scum or not for refusing to comply? | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
It's optimal for town to single lynch day 2. That's pretty much a given. | ||
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xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:10 syllogism wrote: Uh, if you are scum and town decides you are scum, you will just stop double lynching and there is nothing we can do about it but hope BC isn't scum as well. If we lynch Palmar for not using double lynches, a mafia BC will be left with two options: using double lynch immediately or being lynched for doing the same thing Palmar got lynched for. It's not a good situation for town but at least the mafia team would have the give up something. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:12 annul wrote: i wouldnt support it if you were confirmed town, but i wouldnt push your day 2 lynch. id probably just mentally note never to play with you You haven't proven anything. You presented math by Kitaman that completely ignored lurker banes, hatters, vigs, the mayor triple vote, and the possibility of using a double lynch later. Then without ever presenting a case yourself, you suggest we'll have no hard time lynching 2 scum tomorrow based on clues only. Prove it. I have no problem with using the double lynch today. | ||
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Tyrran
France777 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:11 annul wrote: WE WILL HAVE EIGHT CLUES TOMORROW. why are you going to give the mafia team a better chance at winning? with a double lynch up tomorrow we have a direct chance to save one more player on night 2 by taking out two reds with double lynch. they go to 14 =7 kp and not 15 = 8 kp this 1 player could spell the difference in the end, since the math is already very tight for us as it is The math does not take blues into account, so it is already irrelevant. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
For one, there will be multiple more dead people. Based on statistics alone it is far more useful to use a double lynch on day 3 than day 2. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:17 wherebugsgo wrote: Palmar you still have avoided commenting on my list of 10 players. I haven't had the time, sorry. I will do in a few hours. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
lol. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:16 Palmar wrote: That's the answer I needed. To myself I am confirmed town, and we agree it's optimal to wait until day 3 assuming a confirmed town in the mayor seat. Unless I hear very compelling arguments as for why I should double lynch today, I am very much open to reason. If I was presented with two very convincing cases for scum, I'd change my mind. You see, I don't actually care if you threaten to lynch me day 2 because I do not comply with what you want. I want to play optimally, and I think day 3 double lynch and onwards is optimal play for town. If BC is town and I somehow get lynched tomorrow it doesn't matter much, as he can easily activate the double lynches. i love how you have systematically ignored me for the last page and a half, responding only to syllogism. i have made compelling arguments. you ignore them. but you're red, so i guess it makes sense. hence, you go on day 2. period. also, you are NOT confirmed town. you asked syllo about MOD confirmed township. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
If you believe Palmar is mafia, then make a case on him and lynch him tomorrow. Otherwise, stop spouting nonsense. | ||
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
On November 27 2011 20:16 Palmar wrote: very compelling arguments On November 27 2011 20:11 annul wrote: WE WILL HAVE EIGHT CLUES TOMORROW. Palmar, I think it's better to use a doublelynch tomorrow. We have to work together and if we do so, I guess we can catch scum tomorrow. You have to admit, that the situation is a little bit scary for us, if you don't do what we say. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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annul
United States2841 Posts
no blues can kill tonight, right? no night 1 vigs, etc. this means that unless we double lynch tomorrow and are successful, it is ONE HUNDRED PERCENT THE CASE that, unless one of the modkills is a red, we will have mafia at 8 KP tonight AND mafia at 8 KP tomorrow. however, if we double lynch and win, mafia only has 7 KP tomorrow night. since the presumption is we will use all double lynches eventually, there is absolutely no coherent reason why we should not try to save 1 more townie using the town's logical redhunting skills (and not rely solely on the blue guys). we will have eight clues. reds gonna die. argue against this logic SPECIFICALLY, now, palmar. why do you want 16 dead instead of 15? | ||
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