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TL Mafia XLVII - Page 78

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annul
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2841 Posts
November 26 2011 18:20 GMT
#1541
(also remember 2nd place winner gets sheriff role, so dont let them get the sheriff role either)

its funny how active palmar is and now that he has majority he goes AWOL... curious
minus_human
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
4784 Posts
November 26 2011 18:21 GMT
#1542
Maybe I misspoke when I said 'a half assed campaign is exactly what scum would do' . It is more probable that scum made well-written campaigns, rather than scum making weak campaigns, but still, anyone who made a campaign should be at least slightly suspected, after all, the common fear is that scum are trying to steal the campaign by having as many mafia members candidate as possible.

annul, I hope this clarifies what I'm trying to say.
minus_human
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
4784 Posts
November 26 2011 18:22 GMT
#1543
On November 27 2011 03:19 annul wrote:
i think the general consensus is that no matter who the fuck you elect, get off of palm and sand

sleeptime for me motherfuckers. <3


That's the point basically, but why not include BloodyC0bler besides Palmar and sand, just to be safe?
ey215
Profile Joined June 2010
United States546 Posts
November 26 2011 18:26 GMT
#1544
On November 27 2011 02:19 minus_human wrote:
ey215, I tend to agree, even though you provide no reasoning for why you think at least 2 of Sandroba, Palmar, and BC are scum.



Right, reasoning.

First, Palamar was very opposed to BC's plan, then jumped on it when it showed some appeal. It just feels scummy to me, and possibly a ploy to get us noobs to vote for him. He's trying awfully hard to say whatever he has to to get elected. Also, if I was mafia I'd try as hard as possible to get Mayor and Sheriff and the campaigns of those three have made me feel that they are trying to lock up both slots between the three of them.

I'm not sure which two, but I do think two of the three are mafia.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
November 26 2011 18:30 GMT
#1545
If there's someone comfortable with both palmar and sandroba, please switch to sandroba because palmar is a lock already and the current #3 candidate is more likely to be scum and is quite close in votes.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
November 26 2011 18:33 GMT
#1546
And greymist is a great candidate; while he has played a few games on TL, he isn't a real veteran and not someone who has yet demonstrated capability to lead town or provide top level analysis, despite possibly being a solid player. As always, the top priority should be to elect someone who will likely get shot without protection. Of course, it's always a possibility that the person in question is scum but it's still a risk that should always be taken rather than "yielding" by electing a less qualified player. Also, I do find sandroba to be more likely town than even greymist.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
November 26 2011 18:34 GMT
#1547
Palmar if you don't vote for sandroba, I will consider you scum, without a doubt. Further, time is ticking and you aren't here to discuss your lynch
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
November 26 2011 18:39 GMT
#1548
Err greymist isn't a great candidate
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
November 26 2011 18:43 GMT
#1549
On November 27 2011 03:34 syllogism wrote:
Further, time is ticking and you aren't here to discuss your lynch

All according to his scummy mastermind plan. Not much we can do about it honestly, there's too many people sucked up in his words. What we can focus on is the sheriff.

I don't want sandroba to come second. I want someone else to be jailer. Perhaps sinani.
lalala
minus_human
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
4784 Posts
November 26 2011 18:50 GMT
#1550
@ syllogism

I do not understand at all why you think sandroba is likely town. You say you fear that Palmar and BC are scum, which makes sense, but you continuously push for sandroba as the candidate who is both a:

1. Decent player.
2. Most likely Town aligned.

To me, his alignment is absolutely crucial, as someone else was saying, I'd rather have a completely inexperienced mayor who's town, rather than take a huge chance at having a scum mayor. At this moment, sandroba and BC look equally suspicious (not to mention Palmar).

The fact that you keep pushing for sandroba out of the equally suspicious looking list of sandroba, Palmar and BC (well, maybe Palmar looks more scummy at this point) is in itself highly suspicious.
Some of the votes for the top 3 candidates are certainly scum, while the others are certainly votes of new and inexperienced players. To me it's unlikely that a veteran/good player would jump head-first and vote on either one of the most popular candidates on day 1.

I do not think you are an inexperienced player syllo, and that makes you look suspicious.
So please explain why you would take such a big risk and vote for sandroba out of the current top 3.
tnkted
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States1359 Posts
November 26 2011 18:52 GMT
#1551
On November 26 2011 20:32 intrigue wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 26 2011 19:32 supersoft wrote:
On November 26 2011 19:28 tree.hugger wrote:
Hey hey everyone, this is awkward timing, I'm in Sweden for Dreamhack (this is easily verifiable) and I'm having to run everywhere all day. I'll be back tomorrow probably, but I obviously need to explain my inactivity.


vote yourself, dont get modkilled. We will take care of you tomorrow. ;-)

who's "we"? and by "take care" do you mean you'll keep him safe? (if so why?) or is it a euphemism for killing him, because you're mafia?


since this is my first game, i'm gonna ask some stupid questions, esp because this game is so big. i've read some of the linked guides and the proportions should be similar but still, so many people makes my head spin.

here's what i think i "know" at this moment in time:
- optimal town play right now for vanilla townies and people with roles is to pick a trustworthy leader. picking a scum is not an autoloss, and an active/straight up analytical leader will generate the most discussion. even if he is scum, from live experience i think most forms of discussion are good for town anyway (true or false?). that's why i voted for palmar, though i only discovered his posts because he was already a frontrunner.

- optimal mafia play right now... well i have no idea. try to get themselves or another mafia member into the position of mayor and/or sheriff without looking suspicious? nominate incompetent townie leaders? discredit good choices for mayor? i have to consider that someone like palmar could be going through all this effort in his posts to get into a position of power as mafia, but as i stated before he generates discussion and is thorough in his arguments. we can watch for deterioration of that over the course of the game to monitor how consistent he is. mafia right now would REALLY want palmar to not get the mayor position if he is indeed a townie. if he's mafia, he's in a position of constant scrutiny and he has an established posting pattern that may reveal his role if it deviates.

- only people that should act on night one are mafia, and the town's detective (different from sheriff, right?) and medic. right? vigilante and blah blah blah don't have enough information to act... and umm. detective should check someone unlikely to die (does that mean checking the mayor would be a good choice then?) and medic should save someone... randomly? just for information, to know if somebody was targeted or not.

anyhow, sorry if this is all dumb and elementary, i wanted to get my bearings in my first TL mafia game!


This is optimal town play for all of the roles. Other people can correct me if they think I'm wrong.

1. Detectives should check whoever they find scummy. On the first day they should check people who are very polarized and likely to die if they aren't mafia (ie, palmar if he isn't elected, bc, etc). This can be vets or newer players who are making a lot of sense. They check people who are likely to die at first because they want to know their alignment. Acceptable choices also include people who are likely to get lynched the next day, After they've confirmed their alignment, they can start making real checks. Dts SHOULD NOT reveal who they are. They should crumb all their checks in their posts somewhere (breadcrumb = saying things like "I think jackal is scummy" and then writing up some sort of analysis, or dropping subtle clues). That way, when the DT dies, (because blues are usually detected by mafia at some point) there will be all of the information town needs, cleverly hidden in the filter. Just don't be obvious about your crumbs, and make sure you are careful how you record sanity. Rather than use words like 'paranoid' or 'naive' which mafia are looking for, just record every check and let town figure it out for themselves.

2. Veterans should be trying to PULL BULLETS. We want ALL of the veterans to get shot once. Why? Because mafia has limited KP and every bullet that a veteran soaks up is one less that can be used on a detective or medic. This means that veterans have, perhaps, one of the most difficult townie jobs in the game: they have to appear to be not only town (so they dont get lynched), but also BLUE, and trying to hide what their role is. They have to act like they are in the shadows so that they can get hit. The other alternative is for them to post a fuckload because they feel safe being a major town analyist because they know they have two lives. Either way is good. Does it make sense now why Siani's plan, if he really is vet, is stupid? We needed him to soak up a bullet. Now mafia isn't going to bother shooting him at all if they had been thinking he was a dt or something; they dont want to waste two shots on one townie.

On the other hand it kind of guarrentees he'll be around for awhile, because town isn't going to want to waste a lynch on him either. So go figure.

3. Medics nobody has talked about yet. Personally, I am a big believer in 'wifom coordinating' by which I mean, town provides a small list of targets for medics to protect, and then the medics decide for themselves whether to protect on that list or not. Mafia doesn't want to shoot into the list because they don't know who is protected, and are forced to shoot elsewhere, and the medics have a strong possibilty of having decided to ignore the list and therefore are able to save elsewhere.

But thats just me. Generally speaking, medics should try to save high-piority targets. Medics should not be crumbing their roles; IIRC the medic and their target are both informed if a safe is successful. Therefore it is up to the saved target to post that they were saved. Medics should just breathe a sigh of relief with the rest of town, safe in their anonymity. Just try to avoid attracting too much unwanted attention, but WHATEVER YOU DO: DO NOT GET SHOT BY A LURKER BULLET.

4. Vigilantes are pretty simple: Kill whoever you think is scum. Go ahead and claim afterwards so we don't waste time tracking down your clue. But be VERY careful, and don't claim or breadcrumb until after you end a life. For newer players, Vig can be a very scary role, but don't worry: Town probably won't lynch you for killing the detective if you own up to it and explain your reasons truthfully.

5, Lurker Banes are a new role for me! And nobodys discussed them yet. So lets do some theorycrafting.

LBs seem to be designed to wittle off inactive players. But as I read closer, I think I'm starting to realize that LB are actually an asset to mafia late game. Why? Its a role thats only purpose is to kill off useless players. Early game, thats fine: people that don't post a lot in the beginning are probably either shy, away from their computer alot, or scummy lurkey mafia. But in the later game, the entire mafia is actively participating in the thread, and town is left with a smaller pool of people to shoot. Since mafia, late game, are more likely to shoot into the active playerbase, and lurker bane is likely to shoot into the inactive playerbase, this essentially adds an extra KP into the mix that is unlikely to hit mafia.

Therefore I propose, for this new mechanic, the following rule: SHOOT EARLY, NOT LATE. Do not shoot when we are less than, say, 25 players. Let mafia use all their KP, and save it for yourself. I think also at that point its probably safe to claim, since you won't be shooting anymore and it will help town to have those clues explained. Claiming is up for debate, however, I'd like to hear what other people think about it.

6. Mad Hatters is a tricky role. If you're new to mafia, go look up dreamflower. She is well known for having precision scumsense and remarkable mad hatter skills. She has, in previous games, put her two bombs onto two mafia, posted very detailed, AND CORRECT analysis, gotten killed by mafia, and taken two of them down with her. She has preformed some of the best mafia play I've ever seen; in one game I played with her in which I was mafia, she absolutely nailed Ace, the mafia godfather, on day 2 with a very detailed and spot on analysis. I was very impressed, although it caused a lot of worry amoung my team (Kurumi, IIRC, was with me in that game).

The reason I bring dreamflower up is because I believe that she exemplifies the mad hatter role to perfection. Mad hatters should be town analysts. Why? Simple: as mad hatter, you need to KNOW who is scum. Then you need to put a bomb on that person. Then you need to start posting analysis. Its a win-win for town: town gets the benefit of your analysis, and when you get shot by mafia you take two of them down with you.

The trick is that you need to be very good, and very careful at who you think scum is. A lot of this really comes down to experience; not only in your targets meta, but more importantly in how scum behaves in general, what sort of thoughts they have to suppress while in thread, stuff like that. But newer players aren't completely shut out. Just pick someone you have a gut feeling is scummy, read ALL of their posts, meticulously analyze them, post your results in thread, get some feedback, and place a bomb. If someone you analyzed is likely to get lynched, place that bomb somewhere else so you don't lose it. And for the love of all things holy: Don't claim. Just act like a competent town analyst.

7. Rolecops are generally speaking, a role that works better for more experienced players. I'm not entirely sure how to play one, to be honest, I've never gotten this role before, nor played in many games in which one was present. I imagine that rolecop's true purpose is for checking whether people's claims are true or not. Again, like the detective above, crumb your posts, but don't be obvious about it and don't claim. If anyone has any ideas about how to play this particular role, please post them.

8. Town Roleblockers should be pretty obvious: Block shit! Try to block people who you think are scummy. Even if they don't have roles, if they are scum they will be unable to shoot anyone, which is what you want. Roleblockers should be very careful when they read the thread to look for mafia; they should be blocking the high-priority scumtargets and participating in town discussions. DO NOT LURK WITH ROLEBLOCKER.

Thoughts?
'I think "tnkted" may have justified this entire thread.' - Mjolnir
tnkted
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States1359 Posts
November 26 2011 18:52 GMT
#1552
On November 26 2011 21:32 layabout wrote:
@sandroba
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2011 15:28 sandroba wrote:
I'll be running for mayor. My premise is that I'm town and I'll lynch scum on a regular basis. Also the clues that would point towards me are supposed to be ridiculously easy, since I didn't put anything on my profile, so if was scum no one would have a problem identifying it. Vote for me. I'll add more to my campaign later and I'll make my lynch target clear to everyone after I decide on who.
@BC You told me before the game started that he had a very good strategy for mafia this game, but didn't reveal what it was. You also said that if town was smart it can be countered, so reveal the counter to it. I want full disclosure from you and be warned that I can smell bull from a mile away.

looking at your filter i fail to see what you have added
Show nested quote +
On November 26 2011 03:05 sandroba wrote:
If I'm elected I'm going to lynch sinani206.
Yes, this is the guy who normally is suspicious as fuck regardless of alignment, posts a lot of one liners and says scummy things all the time. As town he calls people scum or town for no reason whatsoever, but he speaks his mind. But that's not what we are seeing from him this game. He is straight up TROLLING with no purpose behind his posts.This is a common tactic for mafia to have one or more of their members do to shit up the thread, especially in a huge game where the importance of each member to the team as a whole is reduced. sinani206 is the perfect candidate for that kind of stuff, since everyone that has played with him normally cuts him some slack for saying scummy shit. This behaviour can also be observed in the first game he played on TL where he was mafia (mafia XXXIX) when he acted like he was dumb to get away with posting nonsense. This is typical sinani206 scum behaviour and a complete shift in his meta from when he is town. It is a shift in a very mafia oriented way, since as town he has absolutely no reason to post like he has been doing and he is not known to troll regardless of alignment. His behaviour only helps him to hide, because his normal play would most likely get him lynched regardless of alignment.

so far this is all you have offered for a potential lynch candidate, some people have pointed out why this might be suspicious and you then said that you would reconsider here:
Show nested quote +
On November 26 2011 08:21 sandroba wrote:
On November 26 2011 08:03 redFF wrote:
sinani is an incredibly easy mislynch to pull off.

sinani started the game trying to be helpful, he wanted to take charge. Sadly, everyone yelled at him and called him dumb and told him to stfu, so he started to act frustrated and troll and got a "fuck this game" attitude. He just looks like annoyed town to me.

I still think prplz is scum and don't like how he disappeared.

K, this angle does make sense. I shall reconsider.

currently it is unclear who would you lynch day 1 and what exactly you have added to your campaign,
so can you tell me who would you lynch day1 why else should players vote for you and can you back this up with extensive analysis?

I also want to know who sandroba would lynch. I don't want to lynch YM, or siani, or BC, or palmar. I want to lynch deconduo.
'I think "tnkted" may have justified this entire thread.' - Mjolnir
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
November 26 2011 18:54 GMT
#1553
Just asserting that they are all equally suspicious does not make it so; I also did not state what I think about Palmar. I've already explained why it's quite likely that sandroba is town so feel free to filter me. Your post basically does nothing to explain why you find any of the three players scummy and why you aren't voting for sandroba. If all three look equally suspicious, why are you voting for BC?
minus_human
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
4784 Posts
November 26 2011 19:10 GMT
#1554
On November 27 2011 03:54 syllogism wrote:
Just asserting that they are all equally suspicious does not make it so; I also did not state what I think about Palmar. I've already explained why it's quite likely that sandroba is town so feel free to filter me. Your post basically does nothing to explain why you find any of the three players scummy and why you aren't voting for sandroba. If all three look equally suspicious, why are you voting for BC?


I am not voting for BC, at one point I intended to do so, but I reconsidered (and explained all over last page why I did so). I also posted why I think all three of BC, Palmar and sandroba are highly suspicious, if you disagree, feel free to tell us why. I did filter you, and I can't find anything that I regard to be conclusive in support of your choice (sandroba).

That is why I asked you to explain your stance on sandroba.
minus_human
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
4784 Posts
November 26 2011 19:12 GMT
#1555
I will go out for an hour or two, but I most likely will be reading/posting more after that.
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
November 26 2011 19:13 GMT
#1556
On November 27 2011 01:49 Risen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 26 2011 23:47 Jackal58 wrote:
On November 26 2011 23:28 annul wrote:
understand this as well: there is only a ((64/80)*(16/79)) = 16.2% chance to get a mafia day 1 with mayor kill, with random chance alone.

thats nothing at all. so speak up because if everyone is scared then we lose ~5 out of every 6 times. we need to improve upon random chance. so contribute.

When I first started playing here town raped scum I'd say 8 out of 10 games. Consistently. Of course we weren't wading through 20 pages at a time of people attacking each others intelligence and abilities. How the fuck do I analyze 20 pages of "NO YOU". This is why town loses now.

I have already stated twice my thoughts on a DT plan. After some more consideration I have gone from simply believing it will never work due to the inability to control a random unknown quantity of unknown people to thinking that this plan is actually down right scummy.
It does a few things quite well for the scum team.
1 - Any list of players generated (Whether 3 or 10 doesn't matter) is simply going to generate that number of people screaming "I'm not scum!" "Why am I on that list!" etc. It doesn't foster conversation. It creates confrontation. Scum Agenda

2 - Any list put forth is easily manipulated by scum to keep their members off of it. Or to at least minimize the number of scum on it. Scum Agenda.

3 - Verification of those players alignments on the list is only accomplished by having our Vigs shoot into the list. Again Scum Agenda.

This entire plan is a scum fantasy come true. Hey guys we are getting to control DTs and Vigs this game. Woo hoo!

Just my thoughts on it at the moment.


This also feels horribly wrong. Why would any plan put into an easily followed instruction set be anti-town behavior? Calling out something like this feels like anti-town behavior to me. Shit's getting so confusing >.<


If you would care to explain to me how any of the points I make don't benefit scum I'm willing to listen.

Life can only kill you once.
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
November 26 2011 19:15 GMT
#1557
You are just ignoring or not understanding my reasoning then. As far as day 1 reads go, it's sufficiently supported and more so than any other made in support of the main candidates.
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
November 26 2011 19:16 GMT
#1558
Oh and Hi Bum.
Life can only kill you once.
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
November 26 2011 19:19 GMT
#1559
i wish this game was a PM game. It's extremely difficult to get some information...
based on the current vote patterns and Palmars absence combined with his denial to post his lynchcandidate, I get a really bad feeling

I mean if sandro or BC were scum... Syllo, what do you think is BC scum and if so, why hasn't he enough votes to beat sandro... I think it's nearly impossible that Palmar and sandro are town while BC is scum.
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
November 26 2011 19:23 GMT
#1560
Palmar - 27
Palmar
supersoft
RogerX
Cwave
IMABUNNEH
mcht
ohN
dmans
Drazerk
Toadesstern
Daymor
Benjef
StimilantE
AmericanUmlaut
Mattchew
Erandorr
DeadlyPsycho
risk.nuke
hyshes
Risen
Zeks
Unsmart
Coagulation
TheToast
Pigsquirrel
minus_human
intrigue
Match

Sandroba - 9
Ciryandor
The1stNewbie
syllogism
DeadlyPsycho
youngminii
layabout
tube
Soap
Holyflare
BLinD-RawR
Chanyman
Xtfftc
Kurumi

BloodyC0bbler - 7
Pigsquirrel
BloodyC0bbler
Kenpachi
wherebugsgo
t3tsubo
hyshes
minus_human
Kurumi


GreYMisT – 6
GreYMisT
spartan N30
Mattchew
Cosine
Prplhz
ey215
layabout


Possible scenarios:

Palmar is scum and BC and sandro are town. That would make sense. The scumvotes are mainly on Palmar then.
Palmar is town and sandro is town --> like I stated above, BC must be town, too. But where did all the votes go in this scenario?!
Palmar town and sandro scum... scumvotes partially on sandro and Palmar?!
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