- there are no trustworthy players (for now), so it's hard for town to pick one
- discussion is good for town. it might turn into a problem if there's so many people posting that it's easier to just tag along with a few posts - but it would still give us something to analyse, while a lack of discussion wouldn't
- optimal play for mafia: not attracting too much attention (although one of the reasons to have elections in the first place is to provide an incentive for mafia to come out from the shadows from the very beginning of the game)
- vigilanties can't shoot on night one even if they want to
- checking someone who is likely to die is good for DTs because it helps with determining whether they are sane/insane/naive/paranoid
- medics should protect veteran players as the mafia would like to get rid of them as soon as possible. of course, mafia might decide not to go for veterans in order to kill more townies - but that's worth it for town because having the veterans around means that we would be more likely to lynch mafia. bear in mind that usually town loses most of their veterans after the first few nights
TL Mafia XLVII - Page 73
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
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intrigue
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Washington, D.C9933 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES49496 Posts
On November 26 2011 20:58 intrigue wrote: veterans as in the role, right? or veterans as in frequent TL mafia player? or do they overlap somewhere? l o l vets at TL mafia. | ||
vaderseven
United States2556 Posts
prplhz- I find his campaign scummy more so not. I would say if 50% was undecided and 0% was scum I have him at around a 45-47.5% right now. He is extremely interested in directing the game. This is alarming to me this early on because one usually is not wanting to take that level of direction and order giving unless they have information. At this point in the game, the only ones with 0 information are the town players. Things like: [quote=prplhz]As mayor I will encourage everybody to stick to these guidelines. They are all good for town. I will also enforce the following policies[/quote] and [quote=prplhz]I might not the best scum hunter here, but I can see a bad lynch on a newbie townie from miles/kilometers away and I will do everything I can to prevent those from happening.[/quote] to me sound like things that would be more likely to come out of a player that knows something about who is which side combined with a desire to use that information to direct the town in ways that will help whatever side he is on. I would also go on to say that he never hints at a desire for input from more sources on the things that he is pushing. Compare it to the next guy Erandorr and this will be easier to understand. Sadly at this time there is no way that the town can have info like that so I see his entire approach to have a almost subliminal scum vibe to it. Erandorr- If I rated this guy on that same percent scale he would be right at 52.5-55%. I think he is more likely to be town than scum. His tone that I am keying in on that makes me say this can be seen in things like: [quote=Erandorr]All right. First of, about the election : I will be voting for Palmar. He pushed a very solid campaign from the start and put a lot of effort in it. The effort part is actually important when trying to figure out his alignment. He kept activity high, engaged the new players in the conversation and discussed basicly every topic that got brought up. Thats more pro town than I have ever seen him play[/quote] Erandorr goes completely back on what he pushed in his campaign post by completely endorsing someone else that he finds to be good and active. I know he says he is pro town but if you read the sentence, " He kept activity high, engaged the new players in the conversation and discussed basically every topic that got brought up," you can sense that he got a warm glowly feeling by seeing a player he respects as 'good at mafia' being active and informative. I would conclude that Erandorr knows very little about who is who and is almost re-leaved to see an active good player to follow. I don't see this as trully strong or weak town play just kinda noisy that doesn't accomplish much except through out an endorsement to an established player that is showing interest in the game. Nothing about those motivations really fit with a scummy mind set and I cant see or conclude that Erandorr is thinking any differently. He puts in some additional scum hunting after this that I can't really get a read on because it is a bit hard to keep all the players in my head in a organized web at this moment. Youngminii- lol this guy is mad about losing to a specific player in the past. Classic case of it. If that isn't the case then god damn it really looks like it and wtf are you sure he isn't mad. He is either bad town or is a semi new scum and Palmer is on his scum team and this is the most epic fail of a bus I have ever seen. I don't have a formed opinion on this guy yet but he is now *'ed in my notes because I need to pay attention to his play to see wtf is going on. That is all of course without really having taken ANY time to re read past games and I can tell these 3 have played here before. I will honestly avoid doing that level of thinking (the player style metagame thinking) until the game has shrunk a bit. If any wants to metagame me go ahead and check out my more recent games at http://forum.solidstatesquad.com/index.php?s=527f9d44f5a52f2e8a60befc4e1af5b5&showforum=27 On November 26 2011 19:22 sandroba wrote: @vaderseven so you rather throw away your vote and make yourself irrelevant. How exactly does that increases your chance of electing a town mayor if you are town? I do not see a likely candidate that I feel is a truly pro town choice at this game state so my mind is basically blank as to how to elect something. Until a more creative / higher chance to help town solution arises to my game theory image of this moment I can only go on and vote for what I know. I don't see this as irrelevant as much as a game design choice that doesn't have a favorable approach to as town side so I am just fulfilling the requirements to vote so as to not get myself mod killed. I assure you, I value my vote very much and am placing it where I feel is truly best in an abstract and logical sense. Good night thread. | ||
xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
Yes, experienced players. | ||
vaderseven
United States2556 Posts
You choose good ones for me to read at least. They weren't lurkers or people that leave me asking am I sure the mod said no jesters. prplhz- I find his campaign scummy more so not. I would say if 50% was undecided and 0% was scum I have him at around a 45-47.5% right now. He is extremely interested in directing the game. This is alarming to me this early on because one usually is not wanting to take that level of direction and order giving unless they have information. At this point in the game, the only ones with 0 information are the town players. Things like: As mayor I will encourage everybody to stick to these guidelines. They are all good for town. I will also enforce the following policies and I might not the best scum hunter here, but I can see a bad lynch on a newbie townie from miles/kilometers away and I will do everything I can to prevent those from happening. to me sound like things that would be more likely to come out of a player that knows something about who is which side combined with a desire to use that information to direct the town in ways that will help whatever side he is on. I would also go on to say that he never hints at a desire for input from more sources on the things that he is pushing. Compare it to the next guy Erandorr and this will be easier to understand. Sadly at this time there is no way that the town can have info like that so I see his entire approach to have a almost subliminal scum vibe to it. Erandorr- If I rated this guy on that same percent scale he would be right at 52.5-55%. I think he is more likely to be town than scum. His tone that I am keying in on that makes me say this can be seen in things like: All right. First of, about the election : I will be voting for Palmar. He pushed a very solid campaign from the start and put a lot of effort in it. The effort part is actually important when trying to figure out his alignment. He kept activity high, engaged the new players in the conversation and discussed basicly every topic that got brought up. Thats more pro town than I have ever seen him play Erandorr goes completely back on what he pushed in his campaign post by completely endorsing someone else that he finds to be good and active. I know he says he is pro town but if you read the sentence, " He kept activity high, engaged the new players in the conversation and discussed basically every topic that got brought up," you can sense that he got a warm glowly feeling by seeing a player he respects as 'good at mafia' being active and informative. I would conclude that Erandorr knows very little about who is who and is almost re-leaved to see an active good player to follow. I don't see this as trully strong or weak town play just kinda noisy that doesn't accomplish much except through out an endorsement to an established player that is showing interest in the game. Nothing about those motivations really fit with a scummy mind set and I cant see or conclude that Erandorr is thinking any differently. He puts in some additional scum hunting after this that I can't really get a read on because it is a bit hard to keep all the players in my head in a organized web at this moment. Youngminii- lol this guy is mad about losing to a specific player in the past. Classic case of it. If that isn't the case then god damn it really looks like it and wtf are you sure he isn't mad. He is either bad town or is a semi new scum and Palmer is on his scum team and this is the most epic fail of a bus I have ever seen. I don't have a formed opinion on this guy yet but he is now *'ed in my notes because I need to pay attention to his play to see wtf is going on. That is all of course without really having taken ANY time to re read past games and I can tell these 3 have played here before. I will honestly avoid doing that level of thinking (the player style metagame thinking) until the game has shrunk a bit. If any wants to metagame me go ahead and check out my more recent games at http://forum.solidstatesquad.com/index.php?s=527f9d44f5a52f2e8a60befc4e1af5b5&showforum=27 On November 26 2011 19:22 sandroba wrote: @vaderseven so you rather throw away your vote and make yourself irrelevant. How exactly does that increases your chance of electing a town mayor if you are town? I do not see a likely candidate that I feel is a truly pro town choice at this game state so my mind is basically blank as to how to elect something. Until a more creative / higher chance to help town solution arises to my game theory image of this moment I can only go on and vote for what I know. I don't see this as irrelevant as much as a game design choice that doesn't have a favorable approach to as town side so I am just fulfilling the requirements to vote so as to not get myself mod killed. I assure you, I value my vote very much and am placing it where I feel is truly best in an abstract and logical sense. Good night thread. Click spoiler for cleaned / edited version of above post opps broken tags. | ||
xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
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vaderseven
United States2556 Posts
On November 26 2011 21:17 xtfftc wrote: Just one more thing I should probably clarify: because the mafia knows that medics are likely to protect the more experienced players, they (the mafia) might decide not to kill them in order not to waste shots. This is, however, not very likely - especially when considering that it is pretty hard for a medic to save someone during the first night or two. To futher explain, this idea can applied to almost every action in the game that either side can take. It is called a WIFOM situation. Wine in front of me. I have two glass one wine and one has poison. I want to kill you. I offer you a glass. You can now take either of the glasses, the one I offered or the one in my other hand. Did I offer the non poison so that you outsmart yourself? WIFOM is a way to chase your tail in mafia. You will get nowhere and you will often begin to ignore early situations and clues because your logic endless circles around a present time issue. Be aware of WIFOM as just the obviousness that ever move that has a counter move can be played both ways for good reason. I beg of TL not to overthink WIFOM it always makes me cry when I see a 3 page player vs player fight and they are just looking at WIFOM. | ||
layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On November 24 2011 15:28 sandroba wrote: I'll be running for mayor. My premise is that I'm town and I'll lynch scum on a regular basis. Also the clues that would point towards me are supposed to be ridiculously easy, since I didn't put anything on my profile, so if was scum no one would have a problem identifying it. Vote for me. I'll add more to my campaign later and I'll make my lynch target clear to everyone after I decide on who. @BC You told me before the game started that he had a very good strategy for mafia this game, but didn't reveal what it was. You also said that if town was smart it can be countered, so reveal the counter to it. I want full disclosure from you and be warned that I can smell bull from a mile away. looking at your filter i fail to see what you have added On November 26 2011 03:05 sandroba wrote: If I'm elected I'm going to lynch sinani206. Yes, this is the guy who normally is suspicious as fuck regardless of alignment, posts a lot of one liners and says scummy things all the time. As town he calls people scum or town for no reason whatsoever, but he speaks his mind. But that's not what we are seeing from him this game. He is straight up TROLLING with no purpose behind his posts.This is a common tactic for mafia to have one or more of their members do to shit up the thread, especially in a huge game where the importance of each member to the team as a whole is reduced. sinani206 is the perfect candidate for that kind of stuff, since everyone that has played with him normally cuts him some slack for saying scummy shit. This behaviour can also be observed in the first game he played on TL where he was mafia (mafia XXXIX) when he acted like he was dumb to get away with posting nonsense. This is typical sinani206 scum behaviour and a complete shift in his meta from when he is town. It is a shift in a very mafia oriented way, since as town he has absolutely no reason to post like he has been doing and he is not known to troll regardless of alignment. His behaviour only helps him to hide, because his normal play would most likely get him lynched regardless of alignment. so far this is all you have offered for a potential lynch candidate, some people have pointed out why this might be suspicious and you then said that you would reconsider here: On November 26 2011 08:21 sandroba wrote: K, this angle does make sense. I shall reconsider. currently it is unclear who would you lynch day 1 and what exactly you have added to your campaign, so can you tell me who would you lynch day1 why else should players vote for you and can you back this up with extensive analysis? | ||
prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On November 26 2011 21:21 vaderseven wrote: To futher explain, this idea can applied to almost every action in the game that either side can take. It is called a WIFOM situation. Wine in front of me. I have two glass one wine and one has poison. I want to kill you. I offer you a glass. You can now take either of the glasses, the one I offered or the one in my other hand. Did I offer the non poison so that you outsmart yourself? WIFOM is a way to chase your tail in mafia. You will get nowhere and you will often begin to ignore early situations and clues because your logic endless circles around a present time issue. Be aware of WIFOM as just the obviousness that ever move that has a counter move can be played both ways for good reason. I beg of TL not to overthink WIFOM it always makes me cry when I see a 3 page player vs player fight and they are just looking at WIFOM. You rated people 52 on a scale from 0 to 100 where 50 is "No fucking clue", and then you wrote a huge post explaining a concept that has already been explained several times thus far. Jesus christ, are you trying to say that you're not reading the thread at all and that you have nothing to add or what? This is useless, and not in the sinani206 way where you try to contribute but do it in a terrible way, you're trying not to contribute and you're doing it in a carefully constructed way. | ||
annul
United States2841 Posts
On November 26 2011 19:17 wherebugsgo wrote: If YM has a history of being useless as town, if people very easily agree to lynching YM (and have done so in the past) with very minimal reasoning, and if YM becomes completely inactive with no clear behavioral indications of either alignment, then yeah, he probably is an easy lynch too. holy fuck dude, what a massive mafia tell grats on #1 target for me. in my sights now. | ||
annul
United States2841 Posts
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annul
United States2841 Posts
its not the specific person i care about, its the logic you use here. the logic is horribly mafia-sided | ||
xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
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Drazerk
United Kingdom31255 Posts
Dislike 206's claim but I guess scum was probably never going to shoot him if he is town and if he is scum this is just going to further the distractions. If you are town your extra life is pretty useless now as scum will just role block and take you out the moment you start making sense and scum hunt properly. I still like both Palmar and Sandroba as candidates and believe they are both town, my old third choice prplhz however I am leaning towards scum. I still dislike WBG I like Annul | ||
layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On November 26 2011 21:52 annul wrote: also dont try to evade it by saying "i said none of these things are true" its not the specific person i care about, its the logic you use here. the logic is horribly mafia-sided please explain why, because that seems like a unsubstantiated generalisation that you are making to stop poeple from listening to what he is saying. | ||
prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On Palmar's Run I already said why this is a bad idea; the guy has deliberately been down playing his scum play and attacking youngminii who called him out on it. If you are voting for him because you think he is townie then you are a moron. His campaign has consisted of him posted one liners answering silly questions from newbies and discussing a DT plan for many a pages. None of this says anything about his alignment, it only says something about his activity and [s]activity is not necessarily a townie tell. Answering questions about WIFOM and Mafia/scum and redirecting people to wikis and spreadsheets of filters (you should add ¤tpage=All do those links) is not a townie tell. Whether or not this DT plan really is beneficial for us, is extremely hard to tell and one thing is very certain: I am a bit weirded out by the momentum Palmar's campaign has gained so far. I can't tell if it is because his campaign is so well executed or if there's anything fishy going on. I think in a game like this newbies will bandwagon on a guy they feel safe about, disregarding the grim perspective that he might be a wolf in sheep's clothing. The only thing that might say anything about Palmar's alignment is who he decides to lynch but I am very much against this youngminii lynch. He called Palmar out early on for downplaying his scum capabilities, and then Palmar viciously attacked him right back, even though Palmar knew that youngminii was actually right. youngminii went out on a limb to say something that all players here knows: Palmar is a strong player, no matter what his alignment is. Maybe he didn't have his numbers ready (I found those for him later) but Palmar just attacks him even know Palmar indubitably has to know that he's actually won a lot of his mafia games. I mean, the guy has his profile full of his results, I'm sure he has looked at them from time to time. If you are voting Palmar because you think he is town, then you are a moron. (I am not saying that Palmar is scum, I am saying that nothing he's done so far has pushed him so much in one direction or another that you can say anything reliably about his alignment) If you are voting for Palmar because you want a DT plan implemented, then you are a moron. If you think that the DT plan is going to help town out, then you might be right but this is extremely hard to say anything about in a closed setup like this. If you are voting because you think he is active, then you should hold him up on his activity. I doubt this will be a problem though since he's always active. On sandroba's Run sandroba and syllogism banded up in last game, but that was a PM game and syllogism executed some cheap trick to make sandroba trust him. His platform on lynching sinani206 and no DT plans is very noncommittal. I can say nothing about his alignment so far. I don't think sandroba has any concept of whether sinani206 is scum or not, I have no idea why he is targeting him. Actually sinani206 looks like he did last game I played with him, terrible but nothing to pin him as scum at all, but as in last game, I don't care much if he's gone 'cause he doesn't look like he's going to be of much help and you know what, he might actually just be scum since he is insisting on continuing with his FUCK YEAH campaign even though he should just shut the fuck up about it. People who say that they know one is town or one is scum because of meta are stupid. Meta is not a tool for determining alignment, it's a tool for supporting opinions and directing your attention. People aren't town on meta and they're not scum on meta. Not even when it's syllogism judging sandroba. I still recommend that everybody votes GreYMisT but I'd rather have sandroba in office than Palmar. In the end they're both gonna end up winning today so whatever. I hope you realize that Palmar has made you all vote for him for no reason other than his activity today, this really serves as evidence of just how good he is at seducing the masses. Also, sinani206: raving lunatic or misunderstood genius? We may never know.[/u] | ||
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + I'm gonna echo a weak form of Kenpachi's Law, day1 is kinda useless. On Palmar's Run I already said why this is a bad idea; the guy has deliberately been down playing his scum play and attacking youngminii who called him out on it. If you are voting for him because you think he is townie then you are a moron. His campaign has consisted of him posted one liners answering silly questions from newbies and discussing a DT plan for many a pages. None of this says anything about his alignment, it only says something about his activity and activity is not necessarily a townie tell. Answering questions about WIFOM and Mafia/scum and redirecting people to wikis and spreadsheets of filters (you should add ¤tpage=All do those links) is not a townie tell. Whether or not this DT plan really is beneficial for us, is extremely hard to tell and one thing is very certain: we cannot hold him up on not implementing it because he can not control detectives, he can only ask them to do something. Being mayor does not make it easier for Palmar to implement this plan, and in my opinion the plan is of questionable usability anyway. Until now the only thing it has done is that it has made people vote for Palmar. I am a bit weirded out by the momentum Palmar's campaign has gained so far. I can't tell if it is because his campaign is so well executed or if there's anything fishy going on. I think in a game like this newbies will bandwagon on a guy they feel safe about, disregarding the grim perspective that he might be a wolf in sheep's clothing. The only thing that might say anything about Palmar's alignment is who he decides to lynch but I am very much against this youngminii lynch. He called Palmar out early on for downplaying his scum capabilities, and then Palmar viciously attacked him right back, even though Palmar knew that youngminii was actually right. youngminii went out on a limb to say something that all players here knows: Palmar is a strong player, no matter what his alignment is. Maybe he didn't have his numbers ready (I found those for him later) but Palmar just attacks him even know Palmar indubitably has to know that he's actually won a lot of his mafia games. I mean, the guy has his profile full of his results, I'm sure he has looked at them from time to time. If you are voting Palmar because you think he is town, then you are a moron. (I am not saying that Palmar is scum, I am saying that nothing he's done so far has pushed him so much in one direction or another that you can say anything reliably about his alignment) If you are voting for Palmar because you want a DT plan implemented, then you are a moron. If you think that the DT plan is going to help town out, then you might be right but this is extremely hard to say anything about in a closed setup like this. If you are voting because you think he is active, then you should hold him up on his activity. I doubt this will be a problem though since he's always active. On sandroba's Run sandroba and syllogism banded up in last game, but that was a PM game and syllogism executed some cheap trick to make sandroba trust him. His platform on lynching sinani206 and no DT plans is very noncommittal. I can say nothing about his alignment so far. I don't think sandroba has any concept of whether sinani206 is scum or not, I have no idea why he is targeting him. Actually sinani206 looks like he did last game I played with him, terrible but nothing to pin him as scum at all, but as in last game, I don't care much if he's gone 'cause he doesn't look like he's going to be of much help and you know what, he might actually just be scum since he is insisting on continuing with his FUCK YEAH campaign even though he should just shut the fuck up about it. People who say that they know one is town or one is scum because of meta are stupid. Meta is not a tool for determining alignment, it's a tool for supporting opinions and directing your attention. People aren't town on meta and they're not scum on meta. Not even when it's syllogism judging sandroba. I still recommend that everybody votes GreYMisT but I'd rather have sandroba in office than Palmar. In the end they're both gonna end up winning today so whatever. I hope you realize that Palmar has made you all vote for him for no reason other than his activity today, this really serves as evidence of just how good he is at seducing the masses. Also, sinani206: raving lunatic or misunderstood genius? We may never know. | ||
annul
United States2841 Posts
On November 26 2011 22:06 layabout wrote: please explain why, because that seems like a unsubstantiated generalisation that you are making to stop poeple from listening to what he is saying. "if we have no reads on him, EASY LYNCH TARGET!" no. this is a horrible and terribad idea. you dont lynch people because you have no alignment read on them. this is retarded and is what mafia wants, not town. like i said it could be any name in there, not just YM. the logic itself is flawed. | ||
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