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On November 10 2011 07:34 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:28 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:22 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:20 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:16 wherebugsgo wrote:
I couldn't bus Kurumi when he and RoL both came in at extremely odd times to soft defend us.
I even repeatedly sent Kurumi PMs telling him what I wanted him to do and every single time I'd look in the thread and there'd be this random single post that would make me and Radfield look like shit.
And I disagree with you completely on the day 3 business. I really don't think I got lynched on day 3 for any fault of my own. That lynch literally could've swung either way, and all the facts were on my side.
I know for a fact I would've hated to be in GM's or super's shoes as town. We were in a good spot. Town just flipped a coin and it landed correctly.
Also follow the cop IS an issue with the parity. All they need to do is check people who don't die and they have more than enough information on day 3. We couldn't do anything about a day 1 claim. That isn't our fault at all. I completely agree that you didn't HAVE to bus, but it was the safest way to win. But yes, the problem lay in you guys already having screwed up that opportunity, leaving it down to a decision on where RedFF and Kita would stand, which was unfortunately unfavorable to you. And of course you got lynched by your own fault, you have to remember, they only know either you guys or S&G are scum, you lost that argument to supersoft and greymist because they played well enough. It basically came down to a simple duel between S&G and Chezinu, and S&G came out on top this time. lol I really do disagree with this, but I'm not going to argue about it anymore because I know I'm more than a little mad right now. This game was extremely frustrating to me because I knew as soon as kita+red claimed on day 1 that it was going to be incredibly hard to win. I did my best, and we lost. Oh well. You did your best, the rest of your team didn't. You cannot argue with what's a fact. It really did come down to a 1v1 argument where both of you raced to convince the deciding team you were town, a race you lost. You made a few mistakes, but overall you played a really solid mafia game. The problem lies in your team. The fact you defended Kurumi and RoL multiple times throughout the game because they simply couldn't be arsed looking innocent, the fact that the Radfield side of your team who could've complemented your aggressive style with big solid posts very well was for the most part missing.... Those were the things that lost the game. There is no such thing as winning a game as mafia alone, you have to do it as a team because you never know when shit hits the fan. I found this out in personality where I was happily leading town until a random watcher found me out and suddenly the rest of the team had to scramble. The setup may have been slightly town favoured, after a very successful day1/night1 cycle, mafia was in prime position to win, all they had to do was to establish themselves as town and distance, because the parity cop could NEVER have more than one check because you found the doctor. Right, but one check is all the PC needed in a day 3 situation when there are four other players left. Think about it. If the PC gets one confirmed townie, then the PC just needs to muddy the check and then figure out which one is the last townie. If the PC gets two people as the same parity in the endgame situation, game just proceeds with preceding analysis. The only situation in which the PC has less than a 50% chance to score scum on day 3 is if both the checks died. No matter how we could've played it, town would've had at least a 50% chance to score scum on day 3. All you need is one shred of analysis and a bunch of dumb luck and you win the game right there. EDIT: Plus yeah, one of us getting lynched normally wouldn't end the game but with 3 afk partners=lol
But on day3 with 3 town 2 scum you have bassically a 50% chance to hit scum anyway, regardless of the settup
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On November 10 2011 07:36 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:34 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:28 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:22 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:20 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:16 wherebugsgo wrote:
I couldn't bus Kurumi when he and RoL both came in at extremely odd times to soft defend us.
I even repeatedly sent Kurumi PMs telling him what I wanted him to do and every single time I'd look in the thread and there'd be this random single post that would make me and Radfield look like shit.
And I disagree with you completely on the day 3 business. I really don't think I got lynched on day 3 for any fault of my own. That lynch literally could've swung either way, and all the facts were on my side.
I know for a fact I would've hated to be in GM's or super's shoes as town. We were in a good spot. Town just flipped a coin and it landed correctly.
Also follow the cop IS an issue with the parity. All they need to do is check people who don't die and they have more than enough information on day 3. We couldn't do anything about a day 1 claim. That isn't our fault at all. I completely agree that you didn't HAVE to bus, but it was the safest way to win. But yes, the problem lay in you guys already having screwed up that opportunity, leaving it down to a decision on where RedFF and Kita would stand, which was unfortunately unfavorable to you. And of course you got lynched by your own fault, you have to remember, they only know either you guys or S&G are scum, you lost that argument to supersoft and greymist because they played well enough. It basically came down to a simple duel between S&G and Chezinu, and S&G came out on top this time. lol I really do disagree with this, but I'm not going to argue about it anymore because I know I'm more than a little mad right now. This game was extremely frustrating to me because I knew as soon as kita+red claimed on day 1 that it was going to be incredibly hard to win. I did my best, and we lost. Oh well. You did your best, the rest of your team didn't. You cannot argue with what's a fact. It really did come down to a 1v1 argument where both of you raced to convince the deciding team you were town, a race you lost. You made a few mistakes, but overall you played a really solid mafia game. The problem lies in your team. The fact you defended Kurumi and RoL multiple times throughout the game because they simply couldn't be arsed looking innocent, the fact that the Radfield side of your team who could've complemented your aggressive style with big solid posts very well was for the most part missing.... Those were the things that lost the game. There is no such thing as winning a game as mafia alone, you have to do it as a team because you never know when shit hits the fan. I found this out in personality where I was happily leading town until a random watcher found me out and suddenly the rest of the team had to scramble. The setup may have been slightly town favoured, after a very successful day1/night1 cycle, mafia was in prime position to win, all they had to do was to establish themselves as town and distance, because the parity cop could NEVER have more than one check because you found the doctor. Right, but one check is all the PC needed in a day 3 situation when there are four other players left. Think about it. If the PC gets one confirmed townie, then the PC just needs to muddy the check and then figure out which one is the last townie. If the PC gets two people as the same parity in the endgame situation, game just proceeds with preceding analysis. The only situation in which the PC has less than a 50% chance to score scum on day 3 is if both the checks died. No matter how we could've played it, town would've had at least a 50% chance to score scum on day 3. All you need is one shred of analysis and a bunch of dumb luck and you win the game right there. EDIT: Plus yeah, one of us getting lynched normally wouldn't end the game but with 3 afk partners=lol But on day3 with 3 town 2 scum you have bassically a 50% chance to hit scum anyway, regardless of the settup
No you don't, mathematically that makes no sense.
In any other setup there isn't a confirmed townie still living on day 3, therefore the pure chance is 40% to hit scum.
Plus, the check gives more information than just the parity difference. It also gives a bunch of other information that can be used to determine connections.
Do none of you remember that we tried killing GM and then bussing nipple? The parity check gave kita+red the information that GM and nipple were opposite parities.
At that point we were basically fucked.
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On November 10 2011 07:34 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:28 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:22 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:20 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:16 wherebugsgo wrote:
I couldn't bus Kurumi when he and RoL both came in at extremely odd times to soft defend us.
I even repeatedly sent Kurumi PMs telling him what I wanted him to do and every single time I'd look in the thread and there'd be this random single post that would make me and Radfield look like shit.
And I disagree with you completely on the day 3 business. I really don't think I got lynched on day 3 for any fault of my own. That lynch literally could've swung either way, and all the facts were on my side.
I know for a fact I would've hated to be in GM's or super's shoes as town. We were in a good spot. Town just flipped a coin and it landed correctly.
Also follow the cop IS an issue with the parity. All they need to do is check people who don't die and they have more than enough information on day 3. We couldn't do anything about a day 1 claim. That isn't our fault at all. I completely agree that you didn't HAVE to bus, but it was the safest way to win. But yes, the problem lay in you guys already having screwed up that opportunity, leaving it down to a decision on where RedFF and Kita would stand, which was unfortunately unfavorable to you. And of course you got lynched by your own fault, you have to remember, they only know either you guys or S&G are scum, you lost that argument to supersoft and greymist because they played well enough. It basically came down to a simple duel between S&G and Chezinu, and S&G came out on top this time. lol I really do disagree with this, but I'm not going to argue about it anymore because I know I'm more than a little mad right now. This game was extremely frustrating to me because I knew as soon as kita+red claimed on day 1 that it was going to be incredibly hard to win. I did my best, and we lost. Oh well. You did your best, the rest of your team didn't. You cannot argue with what's a fact. It really did come down to a 1v1 argument where both of you raced to convince the deciding team you were town, a race you lost. You made a few mistakes, but overall you played a really solid mafia game. The problem lies in your team. The fact you defended Kurumi and RoL multiple times throughout the game because they simply couldn't be arsed looking innocent, the fact that the Radfield side of your team who could've complemented your aggressive style with big solid posts very well was for the most part missing.... Those were the things that lost the game. There is no such thing as winning a game as mafia alone, you have to do it as a team because you never know when shit hits the fan. I found this out in personality where I was happily leading town until a random watcher found me out and suddenly the rest of the team had to scramble. The setup may have been slightly town favoured, after a very successful day1/night1 cycle, mafia was in prime position to win, all they had to do was to establish themselves as town and distance, because the parity cop could NEVER have more than one check because you found the doctor. Right, but one check is all the PC needed in a day 3 situation when there are four other players left. Think about it. If the PC gets one confirmed townie, then the PC just needs to muddy the check and then figure out which one is the last townie. If the PC gets two people as the same parity in the endgame situation, game just proceeds with preceding analysis. The only situation in which the PC has less than a 50% chance to score scum on day 3 is if both the checks died. No matter how we could've played it, town would've had at least a 50% chance to score scum on day 3. All you need is one shred of analysis and a bunch of dumb luck and you win the game right there.
Town had exactly 50% chance of killing scum on day 3.
last time I checked 50/50 is quite balanced isn't it? And technically it's not that bad if scum dies on day 3, you just shoot parity cop during the night, and you have another 50/50 shot to win the game. Because of your good first 2 days, you guys were set up to have 2x 50/50 chance of winning the game. That's odds anyone should take.
It's always gonna come down to it in mafia, it's what the game is about, having to convince people in a 1v1 situation. This time it was S&G vs Chezinu, each team has equal chances of convincing red/kita they're town. If Chezinu wins it ends the game, but this time S&G won the duel. But Nipple didn't have to give up.
Shoot, Red21, and then it's another 50/50 fight, where Nipple and GM fight to convince S&G they're not scum.
At this point it's perfectly balanced, in my opinion. The problem is you had to go too much out of your way earlier in the game due to lazy play by the rest of the scum, so you were already at a disadvantage.
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On November 10 2011 07:39 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:36 GreYMisT wrote:On November 10 2011 07:34 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:28 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:22 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:20 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:16 wherebugsgo wrote:
I couldn't bus Kurumi when he and RoL both came in at extremely odd times to soft defend us.
I even repeatedly sent Kurumi PMs telling him what I wanted him to do and every single time I'd look in the thread and there'd be this random single post that would make me and Radfield look like shit.
And I disagree with you completely on the day 3 business. I really don't think I got lynched on day 3 for any fault of my own. That lynch literally could've swung either way, and all the facts were on my side.
I know for a fact I would've hated to be in GM's or super's shoes as town. We were in a good spot. Town just flipped a coin and it landed correctly.
Also follow the cop IS an issue with the parity. All they need to do is check people who don't die and they have more than enough information on day 3. We couldn't do anything about a day 1 claim. That isn't our fault at all. I completely agree that you didn't HAVE to bus, but it was the safest way to win. But yes, the problem lay in you guys already having screwed up that opportunity, leaving it down to a decision on where RedFF and Kita would stand, which was unfortunately unfavorable to you. And of course you got lynched by your own fault, you have to remember, they only know either you guys or S&G are scum, you lost that argument to supersoft and greymist because they played well enough. It basically came down to a simple duel between S&G and Chezinu, and S&G came out on top this time. lol I really do disagree with this, but I'm not going to argue about it anymore because I know I'm more than a little mad right now. This game was extremely frustrating to me because I knew as soon as kita+red claimed on day 1 that it was going to be incredibly hard to win. I did my best, and we lost. Oh well. You did your best, the rest of your team didn't. You cannot argue with what's a fact. It really did come down to a 1v1 argument where both of you raced to convince the deciding team you were town, a race you lost. You made a few mistakes, but overall you played a really solid mafia game. The problem lies in your team. The fact you defended Kurumi and RoL multiple times throughout the game because they simply couldn't be arsed looking innocent, the fact that the Radfield side of your team who could've complemented your aggressive style with big solid posts very well was for the most part missing.... Those were the things that lost the game. There is no such thing as winning a game as mafia alone, you have to do it as a team because you never know when shit hits the fan. I found this out in personality where I was happily leading town until a random watcher found me out and suddenly the rest of the team had to scramble. The setup may have been slightly town favoured, after a very successful day1/night1 cycle, mafia was in prime position to win, all they had to do was to establish themselves as town and distance, because the parity cop could NEVER have more than one check because you found the doctor. Right, but one check is all the PC needed in a day 3 situation when there are four other players left. Think about it. If the PC gets one confirmed townie, then the PC just needs to muddy the check and then figure out which one is the last townie. If the PC gets two people as the same parity in the endgame situation, game just proceeds with preceding analysis. The only situation in which the PC has less than a 50% chance to score scum on day 3 is if both the checks died. No matter how we could've played it, town would've had at least a 50% chance to score scum on day 3. All you need is one shred of analysis and a bunch of dumb luck and you win the game right there. EDIT: Plus yeah, one of us getting lynched normally wouldn't end the game but with 3 afk partners=lol But on day3 with 3 town 2 scum you have bassically a 50% chance to hit scum anyway, regardless of the settup No you don't, mathematically that makes no sense. In any other setup there isn't a confirmed townie still living on day 3, therefore the pure chance is 40% to hit scum. Plus, the check gives more information than just the parity difference. It also gives a bunch of other information that can be used to determine connections. Do none of you remember that we tried killing GM and then bussing nipple? The parity check gave kita+red the information that GM and nipple were opposite parities. At that point we were basically fucked.
With 1 confirmed town in lylo it makes mathematical sense, because in a n vs n-1 situation and one of the townies is confirmed, the optional lynches are 2n-2, and there of scum are n-1, which is 50% chance.
Again, what lost this game wasn't the setup or luck or anything, it was lazy play that lead to mafia being already overstretched by day 3.
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On November 10 2011 07:41 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:34 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:28 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:22 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:20 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:16 wherebugsgo wrote:
I couldn't bus Kurumi when he and RoL both came in at extremely odd times to soft defend us.
I even repeatedly sent Kurumi PMs telling him what I wanted him to do and every single time I'd look in the thread and there'd be this random single post that would make me and Radfield look like shit.
And I disagree with you completely on the day 3 business. I really don't think I got lynched on day 3 for any fault of my own. That lynch literally could've swung either way, and all the facts were on my side.
I know for a fact I would've hated to be in GM's or super's shoes as town. We were in a good spot. Town just flipped a coin and it landed correctly.
Also follow the cop IS an issue with the parity. All they need to do is check people who don't die and they have more than enough information on day 3. We couldn't do anything about a day 1 claim. That isn't our fault at all. I completely agree that you didn't HAVE to bus, but it was the safest way to win. But yes, the problem lay in you guys already having screwed up that opportunity, leaving it down to a decision on where RedFF and Kita would stand, which was unfortunately unfavorable to you. And of course you got lynched by your own fault, you have to remember, they only know either you guys or S&G are scum, you lost that argument to supersoft and greymist because they played well enough. It basically came down to a simple duel between S&G and Chezinu, and S&G came out on top this time. lol I really do disagree with this, but I'm not going to argue about it anymore because I know I'm more than a little mad right now. This game was extremely frustrating to me because I knew as soon as kita+red claimed on day 1 that it was going to be incredibly hard to win. I did my best, and we lost. Oh well. You did your best, the rest of your team didn't. You cannot argue with what's a fact. It really did come down to a 1v1 argument where both of you raced to convince the deciding team you were town, a race you lost. You made a few mistakes, but overall you played a really solid mafia game. The problem lies in your team. The fact you defended Kurumi and RoL multiple times throughout the game because they simply couldn't be arsed looking innocent, the fact that the Radfield side of your team who could've complemented your aggressive style with big solid posts very well was for the most part missing.... Those were the things that lost the game. There is no such thing as winning a game as mafia alone, you have to do it as a team because you never know when shit hits the fan. I found this out in personality where I was happily leading town until a random watcher found me out and suddenly the rest of the team had to scramble. The setup may have been slightly town favoured, after a very successful day1/night1 cycle, mafia was in prime position to win, all they had to do was to establish themselves as town and distance, because the parity cop could NEVER have more than one check because you found the doctor. Right, but one check is all the PC needed in a day 3 situation when there are four other players left. Think about it. If the PC gets one confirmed townie, then the PC just needs to muddy the check and then figure out which one is the last townie. If the PC gets two people as the same parity in the endgame situation, game just proceeds with preceding analysis. The only situation in which the PC has less than a 50% chance to score scum on day 3 is if both the checks died. No matter how we could've played it, town would've had at least a 50% chance to score scum on day 3. All you need is one shred of analysis and a bunch of dumb luck and you win the game right there. Town had exactly 50% chance of killing scum on day 3. last time I checked 50/50 is quite balanced isn't it? And technically it's not that bad if scum dies on day 3, you just shoot parity cop during the night, and you have another 50/50 shot to win the game. Because of your good first 2 days, you guys were set up to have 2x 50/50 chance of winning the game. That's odds anyone should take. It's always gonna come down to it in mafia, it's what the game is about, having to convince people in a 1v1 situation. This time it was S&G vs Chezinu, each team has equal chances of convincing red/kita they're town. If Chezinu wins it ends the game, but this time S&G won the duel. But Nipple didn't have to give up. Shoot, Red21, and then it's another 50/50 fight, where Nipple and GM fight to convince S&G they're scum. At this point it's perfectly balanced, in my opinion. The problem is you had to go too much out of your way earlier in the game due to lazy play by the rest of the scum, so you were already at a disadvantage.
50/50 is incredibly good chances for town when they've mislynched for two days straight.
EDIT:
I mean really, put it in perspective. They mislynch twice and then suddenly they're actually FAVORED to kill scum.
Without the check it's still 50/50, but that's the cap. With the check it's higher than that because the check inherently gives way more information.
EDIT: I should say, without the check but with a confirmed townie.
The fact that the townie is confirmed PLUS has extra information is what kills it.
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we were never confirmed town btw, it could have been a 1 medic setup.
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On November 10 2011 07:47 redFF wrote:
we were never confirmed town btw, it could have been a 1 medic setup.
no but we couldn't shoot you.
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On November 10 2011 07:46 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:41 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:34 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:28 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:22 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:20 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:16 wherebugsgo wrote:
I couldn't bus Kurumi when he and RoL both came in at extremely odd times to soft defend us.
I even repeatedly sent Kurumi PMs telling him what I wanted him to do and every single time I'd look in the thread and there'd be this random single post that would make me and Radfield look like shit.
And I disagree with you completely on the day 3 business. I really don't think I got lynched on day 3 for any fault of my own. That lynch literally could've swung either way, and all the facts were on my side.
I know for a fact I would've hated to be in GM's or super's shoes as town. We were in a good spot. Town just flipped a coin and it landed correctly.
Also follow the cop IS an issue with the parity. All they need to do is check people who don't die and they have more than enough information on day 3. We couldn't do anything about a day 1 claim. That isn't our fault at all. I completely agree that you didn't HAVE to bus, but it was the safest way to win. But yes, the problem lay in you guys already having screwed up that opportunity, leaving it down to a decision on where RedFF and Kita would stand, which was unfortunately unfavorable to you. And of course you got lynched by your own fault, you have to remember, they only know either you guys or S&G are scum, you lost that argument to supersoft and greymist because they played well enough. It basically came down to a simple duel between S&G and Chezinu, and S&G came out on top this time. lol I really do disagree with this, but I'm not going to argue about it anymore because I know I'm more than a little mad right now. This game was extremely frustrating to me because I knew as soon as kita+red claimed on day 1 that it was going to be incredibly hard to win. I did my best, and we lost. Oh well. You did your best, the rest of your team didn't. You cannot argue with what's a fact. It really did come down to a 1v1 argument where both of you raced to convince the deciding team you were town, a race you lost. You made a few mistakes, but overall you played a really solid mafia game. The problem lies in your team. The fact you defended Kurumi and RoL multiple times throughout the game because they simply couldn't be arsed looking innocent, the fact that the Radfield side of your team who could've complemented your aggressive style with big solid posts very well was for the most part missing.... Those were the things that lost the game. There is no such thing as winning a game as mafia alone, you have to do it as a team because you never know when shit hits the fan. I found this out in personality where I was happily leading town until a random watcher found me out and suddenly the rest of the team had to scramble. The setup may have been slightly town favoured, after a very successful day1/night1 cycle, mafia was in prime position to win, all they had to do was to establish themselves as town and distance, because the parity cop could NEVER have more than one check because you found the doctor. Right, but one check is all the PC needed in a day 3 situation when there are four other players left. Think about it. If the PC gets one confirmed townie, then the PC just needs to muddy the check and then figure out which one is the last townie. If the PC gets two people as the same parity in the endgame situation, game just proceeds with preceding analysis. The only situation in which the PC has less than a 50% chance to score scum on day 3 is if both the checks died. No matter how we could've played it, town would've had at least a 50% chance to score scum on day 3. All you need is one shred of analysis and a bunch of dumb luck and you win the game right there. Town had exactly 50% chance of killing scum on day 3. last time I checked 50/50 is quite balanced isn't it? And technically it's not that bad if scum dies on day 3, you just shoot parity cop during the night, and you have another 50/50 shot to win the game. Because of your good first 2 days, you guys were set up to have 2x 50/50 chance of winning the game. That's odds anyone should take. It's always gonna come down to it in mafia, it's what the game is about, having to convince people in a 1v1 situation. This time it was S&G vs Chezinu, each team has equal chances of convincing red/kita they're town. If Chezinu wins it ends the game, but this time S&G won the duel. But Nipple didn't have to give up. Shoot, Red21, and then it's another 50/50 fight, where Nipple and GM fight to convince S&G they're scum. At this point it's perfectly balanced, in my opinion. The problem is you had to go too much out of your way earlier in the game due to lazy play by the rest of the scum, so you were already at a disadvantage. 50/50 is incredibly good chances for town when they've mislynched for two days straight. EDIT: I mean really, put it in perspective. They mislynch twice and then suddenly they're actually FAVORED to kill scum. Without the check it's still 50/50, but that's the cap. With the check it's higher than that because the check inherently gives way more information.
thats something you really can't fix though. if we assume a settup with 8 town and 2 scum, the town has a 20% chance to random a scum. As they fail, the scum and town numbers reach an equillibrium, bringing it close to 50%. Town doesnt truely have a favored odds to lynch scum, because if it ever reaches exactly 50% the game is over because scum can control and neutralize the lynch.
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On November 10 2011 07:46 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:41 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:34 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:28 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:22 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:20 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:16 wherebugsgo wrote:
I couldn't bus Kurumi when he and RoL both came in at extremely odd times to soft defend us.
I even repeatedly sent Kurumi PMs telling him what I wanted him to do and every single time I'd look in the thread and there'd be this random single post that would make me and Radfield look like shit.
And I disagree with you completely on the day 3 business. I really don't think I got lynched on day 3 for any fault of my own. That lynch literally could've swung either way, and all the facts were on my side.
I know for a fact I would've hated to be in GM's or super's shoes as town. We were in a good spot. Town just flipped a coin and it landed correctly.
Also follow the cop IS an issue with the parity. All they need to do is check people who don't die and they have more than enough information on day 3. We couldn't do anything about a day 1 claim. That isn't our fault at all. I completely agree that you didn't HAVE to bus, but it was the safest way to win. But yes, the problem lay in you guys already having screwed up that opportunity, leaving it down to a decision on where RedFF and Kita would stand, which was unfortunately unfavorable to you. And of course you got lynched by your own fault, you have to remember, they only know either you guys or S&G are scum, you lost that argument to supersoft and greymist because they played well enough. It basically came down to a simple duel between S&G and Chezinu, and S&G came out on top this time. lol I really do disagree with this, but I'm not going to argue about it anymore because I know I'm more than a little mad right now. This game was extremely frustrating to me because I knew as soon as kita+red claimed on day 1 that it was going to be incredibly hard to win. I did my best, and we lost. Oh well. You did your best, the rest of your team didn't. You cannot argue with what's a fact. It really did come down to a 1v1 argument where both of you raced to convince the deciding team you were town, a race you lost. You made a few mistakes, but overall you played a really solid mafia game. The problem lies in your team. The fact you defended Kurumi and RoL multiple times throughout the game because they simply couldn't be arsed looking innocent, the fact that the Radfield side of your team who could've complemented your aggressive style with big solid posts very well was for the most part missing.... Those were the things that lost the game. There is no such thing as winning a game as mafia alone, you have to do it as a team because you never know when shit hits the fan. I found this out in personality where I was happily leading town until a random watcher found me out and suddenly the rest of the team had to scramble. The setup may have been slightly town favoured, after a very successful day1/night1 cycle, mafia was in prime position to win, all they had to do was to establish themselves as town and distance, because the parity cop could NEVER have more than one check because you found the doctor. Right, but one check is all the PC needed in a day 3 situation when there are four other players left. Think about it. If the PC gets one confirmed townie, then the PC just needs to muddy the check and then figure out which one is the last townie. If the PC gets two people as the same parity in the endgame situation, game just proceeds with preceding analysis. The only situation in which the PC has less than a 50% chance to score scum on day 3 is if both the checks died. No matter how we could've played it, town would've had at least a 50% chance to score scum on day 3. All you need is one shred of analysis and a bunch of dumb luck and you win the game right there. Town had exactly 50% chance of killing scum on day 3. last time I checked 50/50 is quite balanced isn't it? And technically it's not that bad if scum dies on day 3, you just shoot parity cop during the night, and you have another 50/50 shot to win the game. Because of your good first 2 days, you guys were set up to have 2x 50/50 chance of winning the game. That's odds anyone should take. It's always gonna come down to it in mafia, it's what the game is about, having to convince people in a 1v1 situation. This time it was S&G vs Chezinu, each team has equal chances of convincing red/kita they're town. If Chezinu wins it ends the game, but this time S&G won the duel. But Nipple didn't have to give up. Shoot, Red21, and then it's another 50/50 fight, where Nipple and GM fight to convince S&G they're scum. At this point it's perfectly balanced, in my opinion. The problem is you had to go too much out of your way earlier in the game due to lazy play by the rest of the scum, so you were already at a disadvantage. 50/50 is incredibly good chances for town when they've mislynched for two days straight.
Only if the mafia already has put themselves out there. I understand you're frustrated, but you should know you played well this game, easily mafia mvp, and losing a very close game being the mvp of your team is pretty good. (You could tone down on the insults though). But you can't run out and blame external factors, you simply had too much weight to pull this game, and your team paid for it.
I've two times ended up in a similar situation, that I can remember.
1st as mafia, where I had a 50/50 shot with a confirmed townie. I managed to convince him I was town and won the game.
2nd as town, where I was the confirmed townie, and both the others had claimed, sadly the townie botched his claim, and I was really new at the time and didn't read the thread properly (there were holes in the scum's story), I went with the wrong call and gave mafia the game.
I'm not saying it's valid evidence to prove you wrong, just pointing out it can easily be done as scum. All the best mafia games come down to 3 people anyway, and one person is always technically confirmed because you as scum can't actually allow yourself to try and lynch either townie.
It's a very common situation in mafia, and I think it's pretty fair.
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On November 10 2011 07:51 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:46 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:41 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:34 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:28 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:22 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:20 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:16 wherebugsgo wrote:
I couldn't bus Kurumi when he and RoL both came in at extremely odd times to soft defend us.
I even repeatedly sent Kurumi PMs telling him what I wanted him to do and every single time I'd look in the thread and there'd be this random single post that would make me and Radfield look like shit.
And I disagree with you completely on the day 3 business. I really don't think I got lynched on day 3 for any fault of my own. That lynch literally could've swung either way, and all the facts were on my side.
I know for a fact I would've hated to be in GM's or super's shoes as town. We were in a good spot. Town just flipped a coin and it landed correctly.
Also follow the cop IS an issue with the parity. All they need to do is check people who don't die and they have more than enough information on day 3. We couldn't do anything about a day 1 claim. That isn't our fault at all. I completely agree that you didn't HAVE to bus, but it was the safest way to win. But yes, the problem lay in you guys already having screwed up that opportunity, leaving it down to a decision on where RedFF and Kita would stand, which was unfortunately unfavorable to you. And of course you got lynched by your own fault, you have to remember, they only know either you guys or S&G are scum, you lost that argument to supersoft and greymist because they played well enough. It basically came down to a simple duel between S&G and Chezinu, and S&G came out on top this time. lol I really do disagree with this, but I'm not going to argue about it anymore because I know I'm more than a little mad right now. This game was extremely frustrating to me because I knew as soon as kita+red claimed on day 1 that it was going to be incredibly hard to win. I did my best, and we lost. Oh well. You did your best, the rest of your team didn't. You cannot argue with what's a fact. It really did come down to a 1v1 argument where both of you raced to convince the deciding team you were town, a race you lost. You made a few mistakes, but overall you played a really solid mafia game. The problem lies in your team. The fact you defended Kurumi and RoL multiple times throughout the game because they simply couldn't be arsed looking innocent, the fact that the Radfield side of your team who could've complemented your aggressive style with big solid posts very well was for the most part missing.... Those were the things that lost the game. There is no such thing as winning a game as mafia alone, you have to do it as a team because you never know when shit hits the fan. I found this out in personality where I was happily leading town until a random watcher found me out and suddenly the rest of the team had to scramble. The setup may have been slightly town favoured, after a very successful day1/night1 cycle, mafia was in prime position to win, all they had to do was to establish themselves as town and distance, because the parity cop could NEVER have more than one check because you found the doctor. Right, but one check is all the PC needed in a day 3 situation when there are four other players left. Think about it. If the PC gets one confirmed townie, then the PC just needs to muddy the check and then figure out which one is the last townie. If the PC gets two people as the same parity in the endgame situation, game just proceeds with preceding analysis. The only situation in which the PC has less than a 50% chance to score scum on day 3 is if both the checks died. No matter how we could've played it, town would've had at least a 50% chance to score scum on day 3. All you need is one shred of analysis and a bunch of dumb luck and you win the game right there. Town had exactly 50% chance of killing scum on day 3. last time I checked 50/50 is quite balanced isn't it? And technically it's not that bad if scum dies on day 3, you just shoot parity cop during the night, and you have another 50/50 shot to win the game. Because of your good first 2 days, you guys were set up to have 2x 50/50 chance of winning the game. That's odds anyone should take. It's always gonna come down to it in mafia, it's what the game is about, having to convince people in a 1v1 situation. This time it was S&G vs Chezinu, each team has equal chances of convincing red/kita they're town. If Chezinu wins it ends the game, but this time S&G won the duel. But Nipple didn't have to give up. Shoot, Red21, and then it's another 50/50 fight, where Nipple and GM fight to convince S&G they're scum. At this point it's perfectly balanced, in my opinion. The problem is you had to go too much out of your way earlier in the game due to lazy play by the rest of the scum, so you were already at a disadvantage. 50/50 is incredibly good chances for town when they've mislynched for two days straight. EDIT: I mean really, put it in perspective. They mislynch twice and then suddenly they're actually FAVORED to kill scum. Without the check it's still 50/50, but that's the cap. With the check it's higher than that because the check inherently gives way more information. thats something you really can't fix though. if we assume a settup with 8 town and 2 scum, the town has a 20% chance to random a scum. As they fail, the scum and town numbers reach an equillibrium, bringing it close to 50%. Town doesnt truely have a favored odds to lynch scum, because if it ever reaches exactly 50% the game is over because scum can control and neutralize the lynch.
The only situation in which town has a 50/50 chance of lynching scum is in which at least one townie is confirmed. In every other situation, (just name one LYLO situation) the chance is lower than 50%. Confirmed townie+check is higher than 50% inherently because the confirmed townie alone gives the 50% chance. The check just adds to that.
Therefore, you CAN fix it, by punishing roleclaimers.
Mafia had no way to punish a PC claimer in this game. It was either gamble to shoot the cop (which would've been the wrong thing to do in this setup) or sacrifice a scum member by counterclaiming and hope your buddy wins in the endgame. Those were our two options on day 1.
When that didn't work our option of bussing opened up on day 3. We tried that but then the check made it impossible. It pigeonholed us. The check basically FORCED us to talk about one thing and one thing only.
That screwed us in the end because Kurumi randomly came in and started defending us when he could've stayed out of the thread and it would've made no difference.
On November 10 2011 07:52 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 07:46 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:41 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:34 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:28 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:22 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 10 2011 07:20 Palmar wrote:On November 10 2011 07:16 wherebugsgo wrote:
I couldn't bus Kurumi when he and RoL both came in at extremely odd times to soft defend us.
I even repeatedly sent Kurumi PMs telling him what I wanted him to do and every single time I'd look in the thread and there'd be this random single post that would make me and Radfield look like shit.
And I disagree with you completely on the day 3 business. I really don't think I got lynched on day 3 for any fault of my own. That lynch literally could've swung either way, and all the facts were on my side.
I know for a fact I would've hated to be in GM's or super's shoes as town. We were in a good spot. Town just flipped a coin and it landed correctly.
Also follow the cop IS an issue with the parity. All they need to do is check people who don't die and they have more than enough information on day 3. We couldn't do anything about a day 1 claim. That isn't our fault at all. I completely agree that you didn't HAVE to bus, but it was the safest way to win. But yes, the problem lay in you guys already having screwed up that opportunity, leaving it down to a decision on where RedFF and Kita would stand, which was unfortunately unfavorable to you. And of course you got lynched by your own fault, you have to remember, they only know either you guys or S&G are scum, you lost that argument to supersoft and greymist because they played well enough. It basically came down to a simple duel between S&G and Chezinu, and S&G came out on top this time. lol I really do disagree with this, but I'm not going to argue about it anymore because I know I'm more than a little mad right now. This game was extremely frustrating to me because I knew as soon as kita+red claimed on day 1 that it was going to be incredibly hard to win. I did my best, and we lost. Oh well. You did your best, the rest of your team didn't. You cannot argue with what's a fact. It really did come down to a 1v1 argument where both of you raced to convince the deciding team you were town, a race you lost. You made a few mistakes, but overall you played a really solid mafia game. The problem lies in your team. The fact you defended Kurumi and RoL multiple times throughout the game because they simply couldn't be arsed looking innocent, the fact that the Radfield side of your team who could've complemented your aggressive style with big solid posts very well was for the most part missing.... Those were the things that lost the game. There is no such thing as winning a game as mafia alone, you have to do it as a team because you never know when shit hits the fan. I found this out in personality where I was happily leading town until a random watcher found me out and suddenly the rest of the team had to scramble. The setup may have been slightly town favoured, after a very successful day1/night1 cycle, mafia was in prime position to win, all they had to do was to establish themselves as town and distance, because the parity cop could NEVER have more than one check because you found the doctor. Right, but one check is all the PC needed in a day 3 situation when there are four other players left. Think about it. If the PC gets one confirmed townie, then the PC just needs to muddy the check and then figure out which one is the last townie. If the PC gets two people as the same parity in the endgame situation, game just proceeds with preceding analysis. The only situation in which the PC has less than a 50% chance to score scum on day 3 is if both the checks died. No matter how we could've played it, town would've had at least a 50% chance to score scum on day 3. All you need is one shred of analysis and a bunch of dumb luck and you win the game right there. Town had exactly 50% chance of killing scum on day 3. last time I checked 50/50 is quite balanced isn't it? And technically it's not that bad if scum dies on day 3, you just shoot parity cop during the night, and you have another 50/50 shot to win the game. Because of your good first 2 days, you guys were set up to have 2x 50/50 chance of winning the game. That's odds anyone should take. It's always gonna come down to it in mafia, it's what the game is about, having to convince people in a 1v1 situation. This time it was S&G vs Chezinu, each team has equal chances of convincing red/kita they're town. If Chezinu wins it ends the game, but this time S&G won the duel. But Nipple didn't have to give up. Shoot, Red21, and then it's another 50/50 fight, where Nipple and GM fight to convince S&G they're scum. At this point it's perfectly balanced, in my opinion. The problem is you had to go too much out of your way earlier in the game due to lazy play by the rest of the scum, so you were already at a disadvantage. 50/50 is incredibly good chances for town when they've mislynched for two days straight. Only if the mafia already has put themselves out there. I understand you're frustrated, but you should know you played well this game, easily mafia mvp, and losing a very close game being the mvp of your team is pretty good. (You could tone down on the insults though). But you can't run out and blame external factors, you simply had too much weight to pull this game, and your team paid for it. I've two times ended up in a similar situation, that I can remember. 1st as mafia, where I had a 50/50 shot with a confirmed townie. I managed to convince him I was town and won the game. 2nd as town, where I was the confirmed townie, and both the others had claimed, sadly the townie botched his claim, and I was really new at the time and didn't read the thread properly (there were holes in the scum's story), I went with the wrong call and gave mafia the game. I'm not saying it's valid evidence to prove you wrong, just pointing out it can easily be done as scum. All the best mafia games come down to 3 people anyway, and one person is always technically confirmed because you as scum can't actually allow yourself to try and lynch either townie. It's a very common situation in mafia, and I think it's pretty fair.
Thanks, also this is for everyone: I hope you all realize that my insults aren't serious, and I actually do my best not to use insults. I just resort to calling people derps as much as possible when I see bad logic ^^ go ahead and flame me and vent your anger if I made you mad. Sorry.
I'm sure it can be done (I thought I could do it too, 50/50 is a coinflip after all) but I thought it was just unnecessarily difficult.
Like I said and I maintain this is a problem, when a roleclaim cannot be punished by mafia, there is a huge problem. Follow the cop situations are not fun because there's literally nothing scum can do about it short of brilliant play coupled with even more luck on their own part.
We needed to get lucky that kita didn't check us in order for the bus effort to work. The bus failed because kita checked us and S&G, effectively killing all chances of a bunch of scumteam possibilities.
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btw, just to give insight, what's considered the problem with this setup on mafiascum, is the fact that once only 1 scum is left, he can basically jail the other scum and act as a backup cop, because over there they get told they save a life or something. That's why no one gets notified of anything this game.
Edit: and remember on mafiascum, the cop is normal, so they can easily find a guilty on n1 and n2, thus just ending the game, and even then mafia is winning about half of the time.
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isn't 2of4 experimental and new?
also it started out with the RB'er, and the RB'er was only removed because of the potential for jailor and RB to target each other.
Which, of course, glosses over the fact that a rolecop is not an effective deterrent to a follow-the-cop situation in such a small game.
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United States22154 Posts
On November 10 2011 08:09 Palmar wrote:
btw, just to give insight, what's considered the problem with this setup on mafiascum, is the fact that once only 1 scum is left, he can basically jail the other scum and act as a backup cop, because over there they get told they save a life or something. That's why no one gets notified of anything this game.
Edit: and remember on mafiascum, the cop is normal, so they can easily find a guilty on n1 and n2, thus just ending the game, and even then mafia is winning about half of the time
They actually are not notifed, but that was a potential problem in this game too.
Imagine chaoser as a jailkeeper, and kita surviving to day 3. Jailkeeper claims. We lynch scum of off kitas check
jailkeeper roleblocks one of the remaining players, dt checks the other. if anyone dies the person who was rbed is confirmed town. If no one dies, lynch off of the dt check.
And mafiascum towns suck, terribly. Reading over their games made my eyes almost literally bleed, apparently not answering the question "what is your favorite movie" is grounds for being lynched.
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On November 10 2011 08:17 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 08:09 Palmar wrote:
btw, just to give insight, what's considered the problem with this setup on mafiascum, is the fact that once only 1 scum is left, he can basically jail the other scum and act as a backup cop, because over there they get told they save a life or something. That's why no one gets notified of anything this game.
They actually are not notifed, but that was a potential problem in this game too. Imagine chaoser as a jailkeeper, and kita surviving to day 3. Jailkeeper claims. We lynch scum of off kitas check jailkeeper roleblocks one of the remaining players, dt checks the other. if anyone dies the person who was rbed is confirmed town. If no one dies, lynch off of the dt check.
yeah, I guess.
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So Town played like shit and still won? hah interesting
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also remember mafiascum town play is bad.
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On November 10 2011 08:18 Ace wrote:
So Town played like shit and still won? hah interesting
LOL
to be fair, mafia did play pretty shit too
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On November 10 2011 08:17 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2011 08:09 Palmar wrote:
btw, just to give insight, what's considered the problem with this setup on mafiascum, is the fact that once only 1 scum is left, he can basically jail the other scum and act as a backup cop, because over there they get told they save a life or something. That's why no one gets notified of anything this game.
Edit: and remember on mafiascum, the cop is normal, so they can easily find a guilty on n1 and n2, thus just ending the game, and even then mafia is winning about half of the time
They actually are not notifed, but that was a potential problem in this game too. Imagine chaoser as a jailkeeper, and kita surviving to day 3. Jailkeeper claims. We lynch scum of off kitas check jailkeeper roleblocks one of the remaining players, dt checks the other. if anyone dies the person who was rbed is confirmed town. If no one dies, lynch off of the dt check. And mafiascum towns suck, terribly. Reading over their games made my eyes almost literally bleed, apparently not answering the question "what is your favorite movie" is grounds for being lynched.
random questions are designed to get discussion going. When games aren't 48/24 its actually fine to do it.
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United States22154 Posts
Lessons learned this game: Cops are awesome! Fever leads to terrible plays. Counterclaims should wait till day.
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Well WBG I guess you've learned an important lesson: You can play extremely well as Scum/Town and still lose due to other players. I think I've got at least 6 games on this forum where I've lost trying to carry a shitty Town to victory. Towns can also win due to bad play and stupidity.
I told WBG I didn't read the game but skimmed the thread and saw when GM said he fake claimed to protect the medic.
There should have been an instant lynch right there with no hesitation. But the Town is ridiculous.
@Palmar: If the town mislynches twice, does the wrong play and still wins - there might be something wrong with the setup. I haven't read this game or even looked at the roles yet though, I'm just commenting from skimming so far.
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EPT
