EPTExperiment Mafia II - Page 10
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Random4
24 Posts
| ||
|
Orange2
103 Posts
On April 28 2011 13:12 Random4 wrote: Well, vig green, we in good shape. Id find it hard to believe neither green nor red were scum. I dislike this assumption that we have vigis | ||
|
Random4
24 Posts
RoL can we get bonus points if we can guess everyone's smurf?... I tried not figuring them out, but I can't help it some people just scream their names. Maybe I'll just PM him then for self satisfaction. | ||
|
Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
| ||
|
Pink2
23 Posts
RoL Please confirm that the above paragraph is true (allowing for flavor). Now then, here's my first contribution: An analysis of Blue1. As in-depth as I could possibly think to do. On April 26 2011 09:08 Blue1 wrote: I'm ready. Starting off the game on a serious note. This is good. If he stays with a really serious tone, I expet he'll have more invested here than a simple townie. On April 26 2011 20:51 Blue1 wrote: I agree with orange's analysis on the usage of the town power. I supose we should start with random voting session. ##Vote  rotoss1Until the next patch you have an unfair advantage. Taking initiative. See post 1. However, the RVS is the most anti-town way to begin a game that I can think of. I have never played a game of mafia where RVS produced anything productive. Particularly in a game where we can't use player metas to see how they react. On April 26 2011 23:17 Blue1 wrote: The best time to use it is before possible mylo. It comes down to if we have vigs or not, medic protection, etc, and I feel that's orange's point. Should I vote for you then terran1? [red]Lets take a quick review of the Town Power. Assuming only mislynches, no vigi shots, no medic protects, and mafia kp every night, here's how it works out: (at the start of) D1: 11, N1: 10, D2: 8, N2: 7, D3: 5, MYLO/possible LYLO. At this point, everyone should mass claim. From there, we can use logic and try to determine fake claims to decide whether its lylo or not, and what actions to take. Because of this, the best time for us to vote to use our power (assuming all of the above) is Day 2. More on this at the end. Regarding Blue, I find it a bit odd that he jumped on Terran so quickly for asking a question.[red] On April 27 2011 00:46 Blue1 wrote: I see no reason to change my vote. Obvious bandwagoner is obvious. As for the questions, the first 2 help scum way more than town. What's your reasoning behind this? Questions 3 and 4: 3)Townie. I don't like the pressure of the other roles. 4)Yes. You don't like the pressure of other roles? That interesting, and something to take note of atthe very least. On April 27 2011 01:12 Blue1 wrote: If scum knows how the majority thinks, then it's easier for them to adapt. I think RVS is a good start for generating discussion. Pressuring the lurkers is a good way too. I don't have enough experience with the questions game to know how to make it effective. Not being good at the questions game is a terrible excuse for not asking questions and simply going random. Personally, I like to think that every thing I do in a mafia game is carefully thought out beforehand. On April 27 2011 01:15 Blue1 wrote: I hate tunneling a player so early but protoss1 reeks of scum so much, I feel there's no way around it this game. + Show Spoiler [Example of Protoss1's text] + On April 27 2011 01:07 Protoss1 wrote: There's no reason to mistake my openness as scum. We are all still getting to know each other. Why would I incriminate myself so early on? Obvious mafia is obvious? I am merely new to this process and would not want to point an ill-informed finger at someone with no solid evidence or experience to back it up. Feel free to pressure me all you like, I have nothing to hide. I would hope you would not vote to lynch someone just because they are new to the town and its inner-workings. Orange, I have no answer to your questions one and two. Unfortunately I do not have the experience to answer either question. If you interpret this as scum, so be it. My favorite role would be a Townie, because I like to be an observer rather than an integral role or deciding factor in the town's outcome. I do love the companion cube, however, I'm starting to get the feeling that it does not reciprocate. Instance 1 of Tunneling on Protoss1. Interestingly, before this post I wouldn't have really considered him to be 'tunneling'. Protoss1 was a random vote, and Blue never really accuses him of anything. This is a blind, random tunnel on Protoss. On April 27 2011 03:26 Blue1 wrote: I'm being hostile because I don't like your kind in my town, scum. Why go out of your way and say "town's rules". This is a game of mafia and those are mafia's rules. You are making too much of an effort to be nice and appear town. Nice OMGUS by the way. Ok, lets look at this post from two perspectives. #1 from town: Blue thinks Protoss is acting oddly, is calling him out on it, looking at subtle grammatical clues. Now from scum perspective: Protoss is wiggling a bit to the tunnel, and so Blue is looking to press any advantage he can. IMO, Blue is making too big an appearance to be scum-hunting, when he's really just picking at bullshit. On April 27 2011 05:11 Blue1 wrote: Orange, your on character behaviour is anoying and makes your posts unecessarily difficult to read for content. That makes you suspicious in my eyes. As for protoss, he IS obviously new, but those are newbie mafia mistakes, not newbie town mistakes. He's either scum or useless so I stand by my vote to get him lynched. Still focusing on Protoss... On April 27 2011 06:03 Blue1 wrote: No lynch is terrible for town. The only way to kill mafia is to lynch. If we vote no lynch we only have a new day 1 all over again with one less townie. Also Protoss1 hinting blue in two posts annoys me greatly and I don't see how this can be pro-town. I don't believe people, newbie or not, can be this naive. Until endgame, a no-lynch would indeed be terrible for the town. I never thought Town was remotely in danger of a no-lynch though. Also, Blue continues to tunnel on Protoss. + Show Spoiler [Mini-Red Tunnel] + ] On April 27 2011 06:09 Blue1 wrote: The question is, why were you doing it? Why pop up now? Time to take the focus off your buddy? (In response to Red's Lurker claim) On April 27 2011 06:11 Blue1 wrote: You didn't answer my 2 first questions. On April 27 2011 06:23 Blue1 wrote: What would satisfy me is if you posted some opinions about who you think is scum, how do you feel about lynching inactives day1, how do you feel about red2's posts. Also read some guides if you are new and don't know what you are doing. If you are not scum your goal in this game is not to survive, it's to kill scum. On April 27 2011 06:24 Blue1 wrote: You contradict yourself. First you say you were lurking and now you say you were busy. On April 27 2011 06:35 Blue1 wrote: Care to post your opinions so far red? On April 27 2011 08:18 Blue1 wrote: This is from the op: Activity: As far as activity goes in this game, I am not using the standard rule. I hold you all tot he agreement you made and expect a commitment. I will nudge someone for inactivity to get them to post more, but I won't mod kill them. Punishments will be handed out post game with the severity and terms listed in the sign up thread. ... I will say this one more time. The two cardinal sins in this game are as follow. 1. Trying to find out AKA's of players, or who is in the game. 2. Inactivity. Neither will result in an immediate mod kill, but afterwords I will do everything in my power to make you suffer. Which can be quite a lot. I think this is incentive enough to make people post. I don't think a huge analysis at this point is necessary as I've pretty much commented on every post he's made so far and I don't feel like repeating myself. For now we have to use the info we have so far and I'm voting on the person I find most likely to be scum. Red is a close candidate though. If you don't feel the same way and have any leads on others I sugest you share it. On April 27 2011 09:14 Blue1 wrote: That's a very sound assesment orange. I'll keep your opinion on red in mind, but I see no reason to change my vote from protoss so far. My vote is not set in stone, but I see no point in waiting for info to magically appear before begining to hunt for scum. On April 27 2011 14:31 Blue1 wrote: After reading reds response I'm satisfyed with either a protoss or red lynch right now. Your "90% scum read" makes no sense to me at all and I've been much more agressive than yellow yet you OMGUS him like a boss. On April 28 2011 01:14 Blue1 wrote: Orange, your analysis of green seems to me at least as much bullshit as green's analysis of red. Also, your strategy of voting for people one at a time until they post is ridiculous if you change your vote as soon as they post any random garbage. This is no pressure at all. Protoss is playing so bad I have a hard time pinning him as either town or mafia. I don't want to hear any claims this early in the game. I'm voting red. He has been useless so far and yellow made a good point. You jumping into his defense has intrigued me. Once Red pops up, Blue immediately jumps on him. The tunnel focus was changed immediately, even though Blue did not change his vote. Although I do have to admit, I found Red to be extremely scummy as well. However, this does kind of begin where my opinion of Blue began to change. On April 28 2011 01:29 Blue1 wrote: Terran1 has not posted yet. Being inactive is a null tell. Being active while pretending to be usefull while posting nothing of value is a scum tell. On April 28 2011 01:32 Blue1 wrote: Zerg, why are you instant bandwagoning all my votes? I can't say I dissagree with your logic, because you are voting the same as me, but I'd like a bit more content from you instead of mindlessly following all my votes. Not saying they are, but I'd find it hilarious if Zerg and Blue were scumbuddies. On April 28 2011 01:51 Blue1 wrote: RoL, if a player doesn't vote, are you going to modkill? On April 28 2011 07:26 Blue1 wrote: I'm voting for red because I think he is scum. He has posted several times and has yet to make any contribution. His answer about him being lurking, then saying he was busy did not convince me. After your post, I began seing things from a different angle, but yellow's post made me question that yet again. I'm still torn between him and protoss, because he has not been active as soon as the pressure went off of him. As for seing your reaction, I'm interested in the reactions of all other players, not just yours. [red]Here, contrary to his early-game, Blue continues to play pro-town. We do in fact have to put real pressure on people (although perhaps not to his degree). I like that he's explaining his thought process here, but I know many scum do that to On April 28 2011 07:31 Blue1 wrote: Also your first example is mylo and the second is lylo. You are assuming too much either way, as town has to have some power roles for this setup to be even close to balanced. With 2 mafia, town doesn't actually need power roles to balance this game out. But, I will talk about game balance analysis at the end of this post. On April 28 2011 07:32 Blue1 wrote: The point is winning the game. You have no info on pink2 so your chance of being right is 2/11. This actually was a really good point. Even if the proper fraction was 2/10 :p On April 28 2011 07:42 Blue1 wrote: Protoss we are letting you live in the off chance you have some kind of night super powers. If you derail this lynch by voting someone who already has a vote for no apparent reason, your ass is ours on day2. If your objective is to survive I sugest you start being useful to the town. On April 28 2011 07:59 Blue1 wrote: Protoss, and how is pink not an easy vote? I'm not telling you to vote for red. I'm telling you to vote for who you think is scum. Orange, while I agree with you, I don't think you see the point here. These two posts kind of confused me, but basically, Blue is telling Protoss to man up. Everything Blue says here is actually very pro-town. I'd much rather play a game in which everyone is thinking than people are following. On April 28 2011 08:12 Blue1 wrote: Protoss, please explain to me how voting for pink is going to give you that kind of information. Are you expecting the scum team to come to the thread and say "Hello, I'm definetly scum, you can be sure you are not making a mistake if you vote for me! Have a nice day!". On April 28 2011 09:32 Blue1 wrote: Let me ask you something purple, you seem to be a vet. Do you think our chances are better if we all agree to lynch pink today, produce no information and go into day 2 with 3 less townies? Yes, maybe pink is mafia, but the chances are slim. On April 28 2011 10:30 Blue1 wrote: It's not the lynch that produces information, it's the pressure and the discussion. We get nowhere if we all agree to lynch pink. Also, how can you tell that pink and terran will keep being inactive? I'm sure RoL will smite them down with great anger if they don't start posting soon. In this setup, Blue is entirely correct. Lynching me would have done nothing as far as revealing information goes, and even if you'd voted to reveal whether or not you had hit scum, I hadn't formed any associations with anyone yet to help track down any more scum. Town is much better off lynching someone suspicious. As already noted, we have at least until Day 3, assuming no vigi kills. At first I was really suspicious of Blue. But upon final analysis, I believe that Blue1 is Town. Now, a little Game Balance Theory: As this is an experiment, I am quite certain that balance was carefully thought out beforehand. 2/11 is roughly 18% mafia. In a traditional game with the roles mentioned in the OP, 25% mafia is usually considered balanced. However, there are two things working towards mafia's favor here. #1 is the no-flip mechanic. This is a very anti-town mechanic, because they don't know who they've hit. #2 is the enhanced kp nights 1 and 2. Once again, this dramatically increases mafia power. Now, both of these statements are obvious to anyone. But lets think a bit about how it pertains to balancing a game. The most dangerous non-scum role is the Traitor. The traitor will play like a survivor, doing anything he can, to survive to Lylo, at which point he claims and mafia win by voting for the lynch. Traitors are a very anti-town role, and impossible to detect except through analysis. But there is one thing we can be thankful for: the traitor is such an anti-town role, it could not be in a balancd game unless there are large numbers of power-roles, and at least one vig. The other non-scum anti-town role is the Miller. I shouldn't have to explain how Millers work. Millers are a weaker anti-town role, in that they waste a Town KP. However, in this game time is short. Therefore, we can't afford to dick around with millers. Cops, I hate to be that guy, but odds are you won't live long enough to get a second inspect result back to the town. Here's what you should do: If you hit a guilty tonight, claim and let us know. If you hit innocent tonight: Wait until just before the day post, then reveal your innocent results. If you hit a miller, thats the price we'll have to pay. As far as the Scum roles go, Mafioso are obvious, and Godfathers may as well be Traitors, from our perspective. The only role worth mentioning is the Roleblocker, also known as the STRIPPER on certain other forums lol :Þ. Assuming a traitor, and therefore assuming a larger than normal proportion of power roles, I would be willing to guarantee that at least one scum is a Roleblocker. Possibly both. As for LYLO mechanics: As I mentioned before, worst case scenario is LYLO Day 3. But here's what happens if we block one hit (either medic or vet). We may assume that blocks always happen as early as possible, because otherwise we should proceed with a worse-case (not worst, just worse) scenario because of the urgency: Block 0 hits: D1:11, N1:10, D2:8, N2:7, D3:5 LYLO. Time to use Town Power: Day 2. You can see the pattern here. And it all depends on one thing: counting the bodies. For this reason, if you are a vig, please understand that you'll be hurting the town by shooting before mylo/lylo. Regarding mylo: we can no-lynch (I believe). Ideally, here we would all claim, setup actions, no-lynch, and then follow the logic chain the next day to find the gaps. Now, here's why we should always assume blocks happen as early as possible: Lets pretend we block 2 hits, both on night 2. Thats awesome! Go town! But look at the steps we took before that. N1 there were 2 kills, so we followed the optimum strategy for a 2kill N1: Activating day 2. Town has to assume worst-possible-case scenario, and with a 2kill N1, we must assume we will block no hits and activate. In the case of 2blocks N1, this changes the worst-possible-case to require activation on D3, which lets us see how many we block again. Anyways, I hope this has been an enlightening post. Now entering sleep-mode. //Pink2 ![[image loading]](http://fc04.deviantart.net/fs20/f/2007/244/0/0/I_heart_Pink_by_nyssi.gif) | ||
|
Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On April 28 2011 13:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: ![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/ELv9G.jpg) Well subjects I see you’ve all had a productive day, the experiment staff would like to applaud that. Now unfortunately we’ve got to get to the nasty business of lynching. As usual RoL and I would like to remind everybody that no one’s real bodies are hurt during this experiment. I’ve tallied the votes and it appears as though Red2 is to be lynched. As you see he’s now dead so if you will all please step away from the body our lab assistants will retrieve it. We’ll be turning the lights off for the next 24 hours, have a safe sleep. It is now night 1! You have 24 hours to submit night actions, night will end at 04:30 GMT (+00:00) Is this the night post? So red2 is dead? | ||
|
iGrok
United States5142 Posts
| ||
|
purple2
56 Posts
| ||
|
purple2
56 Posts
| ||
|
Pink2
23 Posts
//Pink2 | ||
|
green2
21 Posts
On April 28 2011 21:17 iGrok wrote: lol | ||
|
purple2
56 Posts
On April 28 2011 21:35 Pink2 wrote: I am not a replacement. RoL will confirm, and also confirm that it was entirely his fault :p. I was not aware that I was in this game until after Day 1 ended. //Pink2 Well then welcome aboard. What do you think of Random? And I'm not sold on your assessment of blue atm either. He may be town but I'm not leaning that way atm. And where the hell is Terran?????? | ||
|
Orange2
103 Posts
##Vote: Use our reveal power Also for the sake of discussion lets post some lists, I'll break it up into medic and dt lists, if a vigi is going to be foolish enough to shoot tonight, please gun for an inactive, theres no need for me to post a list of them, but terran is a good choice Medic Protects- pink2 - he is clearly thinking and analyzing, I am now glad we didn't end up lynching him, probably a mafia target blue1 - I dont agree with everything he has said, and I think he is overly aggressive, but hell he's posted quite a bit and I dont think he is scum. orange2 - I might be slightly biased here but I think I've been playing in the best interests of the town. Also I'm not a huge fan of being stabbed... DT checks- any of the players on the medic protect list would be a good choice, but I'm confident of our ability to analyze those players to figure out their alignment, I'd much rather you check someone who isn't posting enough or is a point of controversy, green isn't on this list because he is scum, no need to waste checks to confirm that, although if you so wish feel free to check him out random4 - something about him seems off to me, please check him out, call it my "gut" terran1- one throwaway post and then disappears, if we could afford to waste a lynch I would consider using it on him, but we can't risk a mislynch. zerg1- strong start and *poof* disappears suddenly, I have a hard time reading him, so I want to see what his alignment really is protoss1- he's been accused of being mafia and has been playing somewhat poorly, I suggest checking him out, for science and a better lynch Please discuss, who is misplaced? who needs to be on there that isn't? | ||
|
yellow1
26 Posts
Your lists look solid to me. I'm not as sold as you are about green being scum, though. | ||
|
Blue1
71 Posts
I agree with orange's list, but would like to add protoss1 to the medic list. Right now, I feel he's either scum or blue, so if he's not scum he's sure to be dead this night, because he hinted he has an important role in many of his posts. As for pink I'm sorry that you wasted all this time and analysis on me instead of scum. I also disagree with some of his points (rvs being useless, some points about balance), but I am glad we did not lynch him day1. | ||
|
Random4
24 Posts
I am not voting for role reveal. What would the use be instead of using it after the next lynch? If red pops scum, then we basically won. If he pops town, then we are in a load of shit. And it will be a massive load because we wouldn't have role reveal at a key point. Wait for the next lynchee I say. | ||
|
yellow1
26 Posts
On April 29 2011 01:47 Random4 wrote: I generally agree with pink's assessment of blue, but I'm not putting pink in the townie circle. I will have to read it again to see my own opinion of both blue and you. I couldn't fathom both zerg and blue being scum. That would be gross. I am not voting for role reveal. What would the use be instead of using it after the next lynch? If red pops scum, then we basically won. If he pops town, then we are in a load of shit. And it will be a massive load because we wouldn't have role reveal at a key point. Wait for the next lynchee I say. It also reveals whether our next lynch is mafia, that's why we use it tonight, so that we have all the information before lylo. | ||
|
Orange2
103 Posts
On April 29 2011 01:47 Random4 wrote: I generally agree with pink's assessment of blue, but I'm not putting pink in the townie circle. I will have to read it again to see my own opinion of both blue and you. I couldn't fathom both zerg and blue being scum. That would be gross. I am not voting for role reveal. What would the use be instead of using it after the next lynch? If red pops scum, then we basically won. If he pops town, then we are in a load of shit. And it will be a massive load because we wouldn't have role reveal at a key point. Wait for the next lynchee I say. If we wait for the next lynchee it provides less information, the only other time to use the power would be night 2, which would activate the power for day 3, and day 3 (assuming we mislynched both other days) we will know whether we mislynched or not as if we mislynch we automatically lose, thats a suboptimal use of the power. If we use it today we find out 1.) if red was scum and 2.) if we lynched successfully after our second lynch. | ||
|
Protoss1
47 Posts
I'm glad you made it, Pink, sorry I was rallying to boot you. I would like to reiterate: On April 29 2011 01:41 Blue1 wrote: ##Vote: Use power I agree with orange's list, but would like to add protoss1 to the medic list. Right now, I feel he's either scum or blue, so if he's not scum he's sure to be dead this night, because he hinted he has an important role in many of his posts. If everyone agrees that I am not scum, I have been saying from the beginning that keeping me in the game is in the best interest of the townies. Early on when it looked like I was going to get lynched I wanted to make it known that I was an important role so if I got off the hook, the scum would have to waste a night killing me anyway. I will (hopefully) check back later today/tonight to review all posts and post who I believe should be lynched next. Didn't want to just disappear on you all today and have you think it was intentional. | ||
|
Terran1
15 Posts
| ||
| ||
