EPTTL Mafia XXXVI
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
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CubEdIn
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It's 5 am and I don't have time to read the past 3-4 pages, so I'll start tomorrow. Dun dun duuuuuun. | ||
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Bodyguard You have been chosen by the mayor to protect their life at all costs. While you are alive, the mayor cannot be killed or roleblocked. [Mafia-aligned players chosen as bodyguards will not protect town-aligned mayors. So if mayor WILL pick scum bodyguards, they just won't be much of a body-guard. Sure it would reveal who they are if mayor turns up dead with no bodyguards dying pre-flop, but then again, it also gives a scum mayor great opportunities to: a) pick townie bodyguards and then 2-3 days later start whining that they're not dying, therefore they must be scum b) pick one townie, one scum, have their mafia buddies kill the townie and then ask for a medic to protect the other bodyguard ...etc. So, the only awesome scenario is when mayor picks BOTH bodyguards scum. And the chances of that are somewhat non-existent, since if we knew who scum were, then we might as well lynch them, not place them as bodyguards for trolling purposes. Admittedly, I do not have much experience playing in Bodyguard games with this rule, so I might be missing out on some alternatives. Also, a note for the census ability: I believe the order they should get information is: 1. Number of Mafia 2. Number of SKs 3. Number of Godfathers Being the mayor, this information can/should be posted in the thread after each night, as I believe it is useful information for everyone, correct? I can't really tell if number of godfathers is more/less important than number of mafia/sk. I am guessing less, since it's probably just 1/2 godfathers anyway. 4. Number of blues After finding out the number of blues, only share with the PM circle if you have been recruited, as it will help keeping track of the blues and the possibly-fake blues. I don't see why the entire town would need to know this, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. | ||
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Since it's the very start of the game, we cannot be sure of the alignment of anyone. So, on the bodyguard selection issue, I would have to say that RnG-ing with the option of Veto would be my choice if I ran for mayor. It would work like this, mayor randomly chooses two people (out of everyone, or specially selected groups, like say... everyone else who ran for mayor). Post their name in the thread. If said people do not wish to be BG, they can veto. This will obviously put tremendous pressure on everyone who uses veto, but the reasons can be various: a) You're a townie but too scared to be a target b) You're a blue but your role is too important to risk being targeted early c) You're a mafia and if you get picked the mayor is imba! I know it sound scummy at first, but it can also gives town useful information. Here is why: a) A clever townie can say veto and then take a hit from Mafia because they think he is blue b) A blue player can hide in BG because mafia thinks he is green c) A mafia who has accepted being BG can easily be uncovered if he is role-checked (unless he is GF but in that case mayor will live for a long time anyway) I'm just putting it out there, if you think this is too helpful for scum, then please try to come up with another solution that is not completely random and has a high chance of picking scum/non-blues as BG on day one. | ||
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On January 24 2011 05:07 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Actually, I just thought of this: What if we chose the bodyguards based on volunteers? This could protect our blues from dying, as they only have to not volunteer. I'm also sure we won't get 24 people volunteering, as most people have some self-interest or sense of self-preservation. This would be most useful if we wanted two greens to be bodyguards. Anyone who volunteers will be put under instant scrutiny, so this would discourage mafia. Also, mafia would not put more than one member into the volunteer pool, or else there would be a high chance of picking two mafia bodyguards, which isn't really good for mafia, no matter mayoral alignment. The only problem is if we get a mafia mayor, he would have two townies protecting him. This set-up would rely heavily on DTs, as they would need to check and somehow release the information about the bodyguards right away, so that we knew they were town. This would force mafia to have to waste hits on the greens, or else make it look too much like the mayor is mafia. The problem arise though, when the mafia just leave the bodyguards, who are town, to try to get us to lynch our own mayor. What do you guys think? I think that there are a few flaws with this: - the best option for a townie mayor would be to have 2 mafia BGs (or at least one), but this setup will probably lead to him having 0 mafia BGs - the town will see who doesn't volunteer, but so will the mafia, so from the left-overs, they can subtract themselves and have a pool of players, a good deal of which are probably blue Either way, it's not a bad idea. I'm sure that no matter what we choose it will still have flaws in it. It'll be a matter of luck in the end imo. | ||
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If the picks go wrong and mayor is dealt with during the first night, we will have absolutely 0 information from census. So the best scenario would be hope that one of the picks is a blue-vet. That way, it will take at least 3KPs to get to the mayor (assuming that the other BG is red). And it's not really worth saying what we should risk sacrificing for a scum until we figure out a way to pick BGs. Because if we're gonna pick volunteers, I'm pretty sure neither will be a scum. | ||
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On January 24 2011 09:08 BrownBear wrote: Actually, a thought provoking idea. Would it be worth it to have veterans claim, and select them as bodyguards? I'm not convinced that it would work that well, but I'd like to hear some debate on it. Actually, our best best case scenario is to have the SK picked as a bodyguard... I thought about that myself, but the main idea behind why vets are good is because mafia don't know that it takes two hits to kill them. If mafia doesn't know what the BGs are, then they will probably have to stack hits on them anyway, assuming that they will be protected by a medic as well. If they would know, then it's only a matter of distributing KPs. Of course, medics will be able to protect, but do you really want the medics protecting just two targets for the game and have the rest of the town picked off? Best case scenario? The SK and the GF both as bodyguards (with a blue DT mayor or something).  | ||
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Unless we try something like "we're picking volunteers" and then the mayor picks two random people out of those who did not volunteer. Which would have a higher chance of getting red/sk, but would make the rest of the town go WTF /hate. If I manage to come up with a good enough plan to do that I'll run for mayor myself lol. | ||
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But I would like to hear more about the picking of Bodyguards, because it can possibly make or break this game. From everyone, not just mayor candidates. It would be nice to cook up a plan and come up with reds as BGs, or at least a higher chance than RnG-ing. | ||
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The reason I'm not going for RoL is that, if he's mafia, the town is as good as dead. Kav may be more open to everyone's suggestions (including RoL), but I'm not sure what RoL would do. Be it scum or not. I won't deny that he's very experienced, but that would make the game incredibly difficult if he's red. Also, Kav someone semi-claimed of having a cool blue role. I don't know if that was a joke or not, but I'm gonna put a bit of trust into him. After all, if he does turn up scum-ish, we could always lynch him right? | ||
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So, it seems like Kav is gonna be our mayor. We're running out of time, so please state how BGs will be picked so we can come in with ideas while we still can. And as for census, sure, you do what you want, or what town wants, it doesn't really matter. But it makes most sense to go: - total mafia -> tell town - total SK -> tell town - total blues -> don't tell town (town doesn't need to know, unless you risk dying or something, but Mafia might benefit a lot from this piece of information) - then count doctors/dts/vigs/etc. (just in case someone checks GF, we may be able to flush him out if the blue role he fakes gets too many claims) - total GF is also ok, but let's see how many mafia there are. I doubt there will be too many GFs anyway I'd say... if anyone has a DIFFERENT idea, then feel free to share. My belief is that picking the BGs will have a much greater impact on the game. | ||
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It's not perfect, but I believe it has a good chance (20-30%ish) of hitting a red in the BGs: Step 1: RnG 8 people (out of everyone BUT mayor candidates and people who already volunteered as BG), ask them to confirm/veto if they wanna be BG Step 2: Tally up the number of vetos, and lurkers, and mayor candidates (not relevant in this case, since it's just 1-2 other ppl). Step 3: a) If the number of vetos is high (4 or more), pick 2 BGs from the people who veto-ed. Sure, some might be blues, but not all of them, so there's a high chance a Mafia/SK didn't want BG. If it's a scared townie, then you're not losing much anyway. b) If the number of vetos is low (<=3), then pick one BG from that and 1 from lurkers. This is the suckiest scenario, but it still has a decent shot of picking a Maifa out of luck. Technically, 8 ppl is about 1/3 of the players if you exclude candidates and ppl who asked for BG role, so there should be roughly 2 mafia in there. At least one. c) If the number of vetos is 0 (everyone agrees), pick 2 people out of the 8, as mafias would try to blend in, and blues that agreed would be ok (maybe vets or so). __________________________________________________________________________ Of course, this will not work if everyone knows the selection criteria, and it's not even polished. I didn't put too much thought into it as I figured I wouldn't get to use it. Also, the criteria would've been posted on a different forum or hidden somewhere with a date stamp, so that the town knows you're not just making them up AFTER you know the results of the tally. They would later be revealed to town. So I know you can't use this (especially since there's no time for people to accept/veto), but maybe I gave you some ideas. | ||
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Greens can also veto if they don't want to be targets and/or attract mafia hits, so in the end it can be a coin-flip, but my idea was that, since we ARE gonna put pressure on two BGs anyway, why not put pressure on a third of the players? It seems like a decent amount to start with. But I digress, it's not gonna work as long as the criteria are public, and it's not gonna work due to lack of time. Which brings me to your Option 6. It looks ok to me, but do we have time to set up a vote? And even if we do, I think it still helps the Mafia more, because they can push someone they want dead as a a BG and hit two birds with one stone. Townies are clueless at this point, so they'll probably random-vote anyway, and it's not like it's "better" that a BG is someone with experience, or something like that, so what criteria would we pick for votes? | ||
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On January 26 2011 05:29 darmousseh wrote: I think this one is the best. upside. Vets are tough to kill, and can be protected if necessary, mayor can live a long time. Anyone that claims to be a vet and ends up not being a vet as a bodyguard would be instantly identified as scum. Scum will probably have 1 person claim vet, in which case we can use role checks to check out the identities. Also, in the end, if vets aren't used to soak up kills, then they are wasted. By volunteering for bodyguards we can almost ensure that their abilities are used for the benefit of town. Also if we get lucky and get 2 vets then the mayor can be alive for almost the entire game if played correctly. The other thing too is that we would be less likely to lynch a vet since they will be selected as bodyguards and not in the pool of people we would want to lynch. downside. Reds can claim and mess it up, but they will be identified more quickly and it will be more of a risk since that will mean 2 reds lynched and 2 vets still in town. I'm still trying to think of the risk of an SK getting chosen to be a bodyguard. I'd have to agree with this. Just one thing though: we don't know the Mafia KPs. This is important because: a) If mafia has only 2KPs to start with, they probably won't risk hitting the Vets. This is because with one medic on them, 2KPs will not kill one person, and a night with no deaths is sad for the mafia. This will make them mow down townies until get bored (knowing that a vet is likely not among them), and then handle the vets when needed. b) If mafia have 3KPs or more, then they can easily land 2 on a vet (and if medic protted, then at least they get one life off), and one on someone else. OR, they can just go 3 on a vet and kill him right there. Actually, the 1-town 1-mafia is not so bad because we would lose mayor and kill a red. And after the first night we will know total number of reds so that helps a lot imo. But having the vets revealed, kind-of defeats the purpose of being a vet IMO. | ||
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On January 26 2011 05:44 darmousseh wrote: Well, what is the purpose of being a vet? To hope that you get randomly targeted by the mafia? or to soak up kills? Maybe a compromise would be 1 vet, 1 green. Both. You need to soak up HITS not kills. Mafia will not always know if the target that didn't die was protected by a medic, or was a vet, or who-knows-what. If they know you are vet, and it takes 2 hits to kill you, they will just use 2kp and that's that. They'll probably need to get rid of vets anyway, so it only makes it easier for them. On January 26 2011 05:46 BrownBear wrote: Honestly, I hope to god they do this. Part of the point of setting up the vote is to provide a ton of fodder for discussion and analysis, and if we notice that a group of people moved to place someone as a BG who died that night... well, that's something to work with then, isn't it? Yeah I guess you have a point, but then we get back to the question: What criteria does town vote on? Because if I were to guess right now, I'd say most of town will vote for RoL. And judging by past games, RoL will be a main target for Mafia due to him being an experienced player (which mafia likes to kill asap). So you'll end up with a bunch of people who voted for RoL because they like him and/or he's experienced and/or he volunteered already and/or they are mafia. Then, it won't be of much use. I mean, if 8 people vote for someone out of the blue, then hell yeah, but I doubt that's gonna happen. | ||
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On January 26 2011 06:45 darmousseh wrote: I don't think the sks have any motivation to be bodyguards then. I still think having at least 1 vet is good for bodyguard Nobody is denying that. The trick would be to get a Vet as BG without letting everyone (and thus, the mafia) know. That would be by far the best choice for one of the BGs. As for the other one, the Godfather, but that's not gonna happen because GF gets chosen on night 1, and BGs get chosen before that. | ||
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That being said, I dislike the option of RnG-ing mayor as well. Sorry, but it sounds like something a scum would come up with when their choice of a mayor is not winning. Now, I'm not saying that RoL is red, but maybe both candidates are blue and Mafia is desperately trying to come up with a plan to get a red on the hot chair. I'm not liking it. Maybe if the idea came out sooner, it would work, but now when there are only a few hours left, a good deal of the players won't even have time to catch up. That being said: If the majority decides to follow this, just pretend I picked 2, but I strongly suggest we just take our chances with Kav or RoL. You are right on one behalf though, Mafia would have a FCKTON to gain if they got a red mayor, and the census ability is so so sooooooo easily forged, as it can only truly be verified by mafia. Other numbers won't really come up 'till the very end of the game. To the more experienced players, a question: Were there mafia games where mayor was revealed as scum soon after he was elected? Or does it usually end in tears like when DrH was mayor/scum last time? | ||
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I scanned over the thread, got one question: Kav, why Beneather? I get GMarshal, but what was your reasoning for the second BG pick? I think it's important that we know, and I didn't see an explanation or him volunteering. I might have missed it, in which case I'm sorry, but I do believe it's crucial information. Also, I believe it's important to know number of SKs. Especially if Mafia turns up 4-5-6 people, because that could mean that there are more than one SK. Basically, in theory, mayor should be safe until at least one of the BGs die. If both BG are mafia (or Mafia+SK) then we lose mayor but get 2 good lynches, which is worth the census ability. So my point is, until at least one BG dies, then we have a bit of wiggle room with the census. Which is why we could use an SK count in night 2, imo. Also, in case you guys didn't notice, black is sort-of a recurrent theme in this game, so we shouldn't put TOO much emphasis on that when analyzing clues. I'm just saying, because this night it says there are no clues, but there are references to black anyway. | ||
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On January 26 2011 21:06 Jackal58 wrote: It will also tell them the # of vigis we have. That's not really an issue in this game. Vigilantes get to fire a shot once per game. That means that if Mafia doesn't hit a Vig before he fires, then it's useless to kill them afterwards, as they used up their power. So yeah, they could maybe tell that a Vigilante did use their power, but it's useless information if you ask me. | ||
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On January 26 2011 23:42 Kavdragon wrote: Sorry, didn't mean this as a suspect list, just as a list of people who need to post more. Beneather was the first inactive I found through random clicking on the signup list. Not the optimal selection process, but I had about 60 sec to pick. Mkay. I was asking because you soon after made a strong point about bumatlarge. I'm not denying that bumatlarge seemed scummy, I even said so earlier on, but it looked odd, considering you had power over the first lynch, AND you would like Mafia as BGs, that you neither killed or picked bum as a BG, and instead made a case against him so the town have to use a lynch. | ||
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On January 27 2011 22:52 Jackal58 wrote: So that's 3. 2 mafia 1 SK?. Yeah it seems so. And Kav said that he got 5 mafias. Now, it doesn't really matter if OM was mafia or not, we can safely assume that there are 5 mafia (kp would be #of mafia / 2 rounded down) and 1 SK. That is, if nobody else comes forward. I'll get to the post/clues analysis later, don't have much time now and it's a sh*tstorm in here anyway, but I wanted to address one issue first: Should census be used for anything else? I mean, if nobody else comes forward then we have a clear number of "reds": 6 (5+1). Which means that we don't really need to know more information at the moment. Kav should have the option to count blues or something, but not to share it with the town, maybe if he was in a town circle or something. I suggest that we use it for mafia numbers, as it's super-important to know if our lynches are on-target. Also, if I'm correct about the KPs and Kav is not lying about the mafia numbers, then we need to kill 2 mafia before we can drop their KP to 1. This may not seem important, but it means that they CAN afford to sacrifice someone to get to the mayor without losing a KP. That is, of course, if a red is among the two BGs | ||
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I mean, they would go great in mid-late game when you have like 50-60 posts to choose from and you pick the most incriminating ones, but if you analyze ALL the posts, then you're bound to find a bit of scum in everyone, but nothing very conclusive. That's my opinion on RoL's case at least. So I went back and looked at the clues. Needless too say, nothing obvious this time, but the second person showing up @ Meapak's murder site got me thinking. If two people go for one person (Mafia and SK or Mafia/Vig or SK/Vig), do we get clues on both assassins, or just the one who got there first?[/b] I think it's important to know, because if it happened during the first night, it's bound to happen again. Also, I am assuming that if mafia uses 2kp on same target, we will have indications towards two assassins as well, and information that they worked as a team, correct? (that's how it was in the first game of mafia I played). Also, I've been toying with an idea, I want to hear what the town thinks. Since we don't have information about who's what, even after they die, DTs are far more important in this game. So, I think that it's important that DTs play well. Since it's pretty safe to assume that Mafia has only 2kp (I'm thinking that that extra person was at best another SK, and that SiN is not lying, don't see WHY he would), then it's kind-of hard to kill a DT if town stacks medics upon them. That being said, I think DTs who find a red or sk, should immediately come up with it (preferably in a town circle, but since that's less likely, then to town). If we have at least two medics then it would take 3kps to kill DT, and even if they do stack them upon him, then it's probably worth losing 1 dt for 1 red. I'm saying this because if a DT finds someone important, and dies, we won't even know if he had any solid reason to push for whoever he was pushing in the thread. So, the basic idea is that we CAN'T rely purely on census this game. We need some kind of strong circle or something, to make sure that DTs can cooperate fully. That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN. Reasoning: He claimed he was hit. Scenarios: a) He is mafia. He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more. b) He is SK Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway. By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either. c) He is town This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on. The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town. | ||
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On January 28 2011 05:11 Jackal58 wrote: Scrap that. If the DT claims we don't need anything else except medic protection. And nobody knows how many of them we have. Well yes, that's why I believe that DT should only claim if they stumbled onto something important. (at the very LEAST to stop lynching a blue or something). So no claims unless it's wroth the risk. And as for SiN in town circle, I don't think that's wise. Mafia will probably try to finish him off, and since he's most likely vet (and thus, not DT), he won't have much to bring to the table in a town circle (other than being the official spokesperson or something lol). But I was just saying, at least we know we have ONE green. | ||
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On January 28 2011 05:48 LunarDestiny wrote: While I agree with you that SiNquity is not SK, I don't agree that a hit claim makes him town. He claimed to be hit, even if he is mafia, nothing can be used against him. Not even a counter claim can prove that he is lying. There's no disbenefit of claiming to be hit as mafia in this setup. While it is also likely that he is indeed town, he claimed to be hit to provided more information. The only thing I can take out of his claim is that if he die the subsequent, that he is very likely to be telling the truth and gives out more information on mafia's KP. Well, the way I see it, mafia will not hit him again. 1) because medics might protect him 2) because he might be SK (highly unlikely) 3) because of WIFOM, that you just pointed out But, assuming that there are 2 mafia kp (lowest we can assume), and 2 SK (not too much if initial setup was 5 mafia + 2sk - reasonable with 31 players), then we are, indeed, missing one hit (2 dead, one guy trailing Meapak = 3, where's the 4th?). And since nobody counter-claimed, it's unlikely that he is lying. As I said, I don't want him to claim, I don't want other people to trust him and put him in circles, etc. I'm just saying, we have very very little information to go by in this game, and since I don't see any possible benefit in the mafia claiming, then it's safest to assume he's town. Think about it, if two people claimed, they would be on the radar instantly. One of them would be very likely to be lying, and SiN said he was hit soon after the post, why would a mafia put themselves on the map like that? In the end it doesn't matter, we're not trusting him with sensitive info, we don't need to lynch him, etc. So we can see what happens, and that's that, but if we ignore things like this, we'll have mostly WIFOM to go by the hole game, and I don't want that.  | ||
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On January 28 2011 07:44 BrownBear wrote: That's actually a good point. However, using logic we should be able to deduce at least a decent guess as to how many blues we have. For example, a rule of thumb with most games played is to give town 1 fewer medics than there are KP. Assuming SIN is telling the truth, we have 3 KP in this setup (Mafia probably has 2, SK has 1), so logically, given that knowledge as well as the number of players in the game, we should have 2 medics. Problem is, we don't know how many of them have died yet. For all we know, Meapak and TheAldo were both our medics (very unlikely, I know, but still.) But you are forgetting about the person who was at the site of Meapak's murder. Since we have no "watchers"/"trackers" in this game, it's pretty safe to assume it was someone who wanted to kill meapak. So, I would guess that there are 4KPs in this game, not 3. Unless SiN is lying, then, just three. | ||
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Sorry, but I'm known for not being active during the weekend. I just get home really late, usually. I wanted to post earlier today as well, but, honestly, I don't have much to say. I don't wanna vote for anyone. I'll be honest. Also, I'm not very good at posting 500 word essays about why someone is scum based on a few posts that I picked. So I tried to focus on clues. I have someone in mind, that I would definitely kill if I were SK, or mayor on day 1, or things like that, but there's not nearly enough evidence for me to try and build a case against them. Yet. I will do it if I'll be sure of it, even if it will result in me dying the following night, but I'm saving that for later. As for the clues, I only came up with Nemesis, and that's very weak, based on his picture alone. I don't want him to die, and I don't want RoL to die. I have seen him as town before and he's not ALWAYS super-active and posting, though he will wake up when people try to get rid of him, and post some interesting stuff. However, for now, I don't think he's scum (mostly because if he were, I believe mafia would've tried to get rid of him on day one, AND because he claimed he was role-blocked, why would a scum do that and risk having other people claim as well, put himself on the map?) Coagulation... is just being coagulation. He gets irritated when people seem to disagree or push him, and he just starts raging. Now is not the time though, you said it yourself that this game is super-hard due to lack of info on death, so why are you being anti-town? If you're town, then you have to reason and make people believe that you are town, so that we do not waste a lynch on a green/blue. If you're not town, then by all means, get yourself killed. But don't -possibly- ruin the game for others just because you get pissed off easily. Kav, we really shouldn't kill. Even if he's mafia, there's not much to gain from lynching him first, other than that he could possibly be counting blues and whatnot. But if he's SK, then mafia might go for him, and that might uncover things about BGs. If he's mafia, SK might go for BG and uncover stuff about other SK/Mafia. However, as long as he can't find out which is which, then census is not THAT strong of a weapon for the mafia (strong, maybe, game-breaking, no) So that leaves Nemesis. I don't really want to vote for him, but honestly, I'd rather see him dead than RoL, and his photo does look like a shady/blurry figure, which matches the description of Meapak's murderer. I know it's weak, but I got nothing better, other that maybe voting for coag and have him figure that I must be scum because he "pointed me out" and I panicked, or something. | ||
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I'd love to vote for him, check out all my previous games. I hate lurkers. But he's most likely just someone who got green and doesn't care about the game much. Plus, he's probably gonna get mod-killed tonight anyway, so voting for him is just as "safe" as voting for yourself as "placeholder". Please. | ||
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On January 29 2011 08:26 Coagulation wrote: hardly inactive. more like rampant coag bashing. Yeah, I wonder why that is? | ||
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On January 29 2011 08:40 Barundar wrote: Lets lynch cubedin for talking bodyguards throughout day 1 and post a long apologetic post saying he doesn't have much to say -_-;; I disagree with this. | ||
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Way to "say" something. | ||
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On January 29 2011 09:17 Barundar wrote: Lol want me to pick appart your post? It's filled with so many inconsistencies it's unbelievable. And whats with the apologies, did you get called out? Or just feeling nervous? Obviously, I'm feeling nervous because so many people are targeting me. I just apologized for lack of activity during this day. You have someone on your mind you would definitely kill if SK or mayor? As far as I know those 2 have different motives for their kills, atleast if the mayor is town. Unless you have some special knowledge of Kav's allignment? And if you want someone to get vigi'd you better speak up with names, if you are sure enough to kill them yourself? You misunderstand. I meant that I would kill someone if I had complete power over one kill. If I were mayor, I'd aim for SK/Mafia. If I were SK I'd aim for other SK/Mafia. So yeah. It doesn't matter what I was (vig would work as well), but if I had a kill of my own, it would be that person. I have, as you'd call it, a hunch. A pretty good one too, but there's no REAL evidence for me to back it up with. If I were to make a case against him, it would be weak. If I were to die the night after I made the case, you guys wouldn't have enough reason to kill said person. So why rush into "analysis" and risk getting killed, when I could make a good case against said person during the next day or two days from now? You don't feel like voting anyone, yett you are voting for something you yourself call a weak wagon? And when was Kav a lynch target before your post? I already said that Nemesis kinda-sorta-fits the clue about meapak, it's a weak wagon but it's the best I found on my own anyway. I don't know what you mean. I never implied said person was Kav. I just said that it would be the kind of kill I'd make IF I were kav on day one (when he had complete power over lynch). In fact, I don't think he's red, and even if he were, I don't think killing the mayor would be a good Idea. I said this before. Mafia can't night kill SK, so by go for him you mean start a bandwagon him? Something like you just did? This whole sentence is wishy washy, what information would SK gain from killing off BG's? This may be a bit hard for you to comprehend, since you said I was "going on" about BGs on day one. But BGs are a crucial part of this game. Here's why: a) Say town lynches a BG. Night can very well be a dead mayor (since other BG may be mafia). We lose census AND we lose the power to see if initial lynch was right. We lynch BG, we have... 1 red for mayor+surprise target. b) Say both BGs are scum Town will go all game in fear of lynching them, and they will run amok. So yeah. If a bg dies, then the next night will tell us A LOT, since I'm pretty sure that if Kav is town, then mafia will go for him. Either by killing other bg, or by 'going around' if they're red. IMO, any BG death will give us useful information, but will most likely also lead us to eventually losing the game because of lack of information about anything. You posted alot of thoughts on bodyguards day 1, but I found your posts really low on other content. That is true, but I have expressed my thoughts on the lynch targets, and I have expressed opinions about the rest of the game. The only thing I didn't speak about was "post analysis", simply because I'm not good at it. I did talk about behavior analysis, mainly how people played games before this. It's the best I can do at the moment, that and focusing on clues. If you think that's good enough reason to lynch me, then by all means, vote for me. | ||
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On January 29 2011 10:19 Barundar wrote: Why do you think a SK would hit mafia? This early in the game they will be aiming for blues. I don't know, haven't been SK, but I guess it makes sense to go for town because mafia can't kill them. Though, actually, in the beginning it's ok to dim the numbers of mafia as well for some reasons: 1. There will be less mafia -> clues will be pointing more or less to same people -> less people focusing on the SK 2. Team of players will be more likely to convince town to lynch SK, especially if they targeted SK and SK didn't die => They can basically "role-check" you. In fact, it may be more ok to go for mafia in the beginning and drop their numbers to 3 or so, and then focus on town. But I haven't given it too much thought until now. And we should have some vigis around. If you feel someone should die, just suggest it to them and they can decide. You are being really wishy washy regarding 3 named persons, and extremely secretive about this person you would definitely kill. I'll hold you to this. I know what you mean, but I need a bit more time. I promise that you'll understand why if I get to post my analysis. And don't worry about it, I'll post it even if said person dies. However (and this is pointed both to you and gmarshall), I don't understand why you would vote for someone who's gonna get mod-killed anyway. I don't like lurkers either, but that seems like a safe vote that won't attract attention. I get that we should vote for who we feel is right, but your vote is useless unless he posts at the last second, in which case, sure, we lynch him next night. This seems scummier than most of the things that have been held against players so far. | ||
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On January 29 2011 10:28 Coagulation wrote: ##unvote Nemesis ##Vote zerroth What the fuck Coag? You can't act like you don't know this is extremely incriminating. So either you're: a) A really bad mafia player with Nemesis in their team b) A townie that feels like they don't wanna play anymore. You may do dumb things sometimes but I don't think you're dumb enough to be in case a). Which means that you're playing anti-town, which should be against the rules. Switching vote to someone who's gonna get mod-killed is just dumb, at least vote for yourself to show you're abstaining. | ||
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I didn't notice you had 4 votes against you, thought it was less. Then vote for some other player that's not about to get mod-killed. -__- | ||
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On January 29 2011 11:04 Coagulation wrote: should i leave my vote on someone who i dont think is likely to be mafia. i would rather abstain. I would appreciate it if you did not vote for someone who is 99% sure to get mod-killed anyway. | ||
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On January 29 2011 11:24 Nemesis wrote: Meh, I changed my vote to RoL as it gives me the best chance of survival. It's 6-6 right now, and I think since I reached 6 votes first, I will still be lynched. I'm going to tell you right now that I am just green. Just some last notes before I die: CubedIn - I think barundar might have a case against him. It's worth looking into. Brownbear - he seems to have analyzed all the lynch targets except for me. :/ Just something to note. This seems rather honest to me. The fact is, if he was a mafia trying not to get lynched he would: a) claim medic or vig b) try to get more votes on RoL, instead he's picking me, who was only picked on by one dude so far. It's like.. the least possible scenario to try and get me pushed during the last 2 hours. It can only mean that he's just trying to help town and actually thinks I'm scum. Which is fair enough. He could still be SK, maybe, but I'm gonna take my vote off him. And put it on... ummm... someone else. | ||
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Anyway, I'm gonna change to Coag. Here's to hoping that you're a really bad red player. If you are town and you're doing suspicious/scummy moves on purpose, then I'd rather you not be in the game at all, and hope that you get warned by mods. And I'm gonna go sleep. Cheers. | ||
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On January 30 2011 07:03 Coagulation wrote: A really overly negative reaction to my vote change. attacks my "mafia skills" and trys to berate my judgment in a indirect defense of his lurking scumbuddy. Oh right, because voting for someone who was on the modkill list is not scummy at all. Also, I had my vote on "my scumbuddy", until he posted some things that seemed fairly honest, which is when I changed it to you. Or are you implying that it was a master-plan to change my vote after the initial deadline in hope that mods will have moved it, and getting him off right before hang time? In which case, thanks for changing your vote AS WELL and going along with our plan scumbuddy! God your logic sucks. | ||
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a) Kav - Please give us the number of Mafias, or whatever you used Census on b) Since there were 2 or 3 hits, we're missing at least one claim c) If there are only 2 KPs, then SiN lied about being hit as well last night. And yes, you do get notified if an attempt has been made on your life. Though, I don't know if both the medic and the player gets the notice. Also, as far as I understand it, there are no clues pointing to SKs as that would be really imbalanced. Also lol @ Coag. If I were mafia I wouldn't need to kill you, you're doing a fabulous job at getting lynched by town anyway. Cheers. | ||
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On January 30 2011 20:15 Barundar wrote: Looking at Beneather's photo, what is the Master Chief part about it? Some meme I don't know about? I believe that the main character in halo is called the Master Chief. And that guy is wearing a Halo suit. Something like that, I never played halo either but I believe that's it. | ||
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On January 31 2011 03:13 BrownBear wrote: People also seem to have missed this, but I was roleblocked last night. This means mafia definitely sent something in, at least. What seems more likely to me is this scenario: NIGHT 1: Mafia starts out with a KP of 2. SK has a KP of 1. 3 hits are sent in, 1 is blocked. NIGHT 2: SK was lynched, part of the mass modkill, or didn't send in his hit. Mafia sends in 2 hits, 1 is blocked. This means somebody still has to post saying "yo I took a hit last night" Does this make sense, or am I thinking about it wrong? Yes it does makes sense, but there's two more scenarios as well. - Mafia and SK both hit people who were protected and/or vets. - Mafia hit SK and SK hit someone who was protected/vet. The fact that nobody posted that they took a hit makes me think that either they are afk or SK took a hit and is being quiet about it, trying to see who will try to out him, as based on my analysis of SK strategies a few pages ago. | ||
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However, actions can also be mason/vig/protect/dt/etc. | ||
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On January 31 2011 03:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Yes, but those roles aren't compelled to kill anyone, and don't have clues left behind them, implying SK, see what I wrote two posts back. Yes, but only Mafia can role-block people, and BrownBear claimed he got RBed. Which means that the mafia DID send in their night hits. It's unlikely that they didn't. I mean, you'd have to have all 5 people offline, otherwise mods would've PMed them or something. And why would BrownBear claim RB? a) he is mafia and trying to confuse the town by putting himself on the radar b) he actually got RBed, which means mafia did send in their actions. You are right about the clues part, but I dunno, maybe Node/LSB decided to put clues about SK BECAUSE he didn't send in night kill. Or maybe they are joking? | ||
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"It is also very possible Mafia was all afk and the SK was the only night kp." So I was trying to cover reply to both with one post. I was thinking that maybe mods were mad at more than just one-two ppl for not sending in actions. And about the clues, they may have placed clues on the SK even tho they are not supposed to, because he didn't send in hits. These are unrelated, they could both be true or neither of them, but I just wanted to clarify what I meant. | ||
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On January 31 2011 04:21 deconduo wrote: So uh, why are we not lynching Nemesis today? The clues for him are a lot more solid than the ones on Jackal. I get the impression that mafia is just diverting the lynch, everyone has forgotten about him again all of a sudden. If you ask me there are way too many people on the radar, and others are stacking up on them. This no-info-flip is horrible, we have no idea what went down so far. So far we have: - Nemesis (from yesterday) - I still disagree from voting on him because when he thought his faith was sealed, he posted very pro-town. Mafia would try to deflect onto RoL or something, he just doesn't seem like a red to me, sorry, will not vote for him. - Coagulation (from yesterday, he had 5 votes, which is a lot considering that lynch was @7) - I really don't think he's scum, but I think he's a horrible town player with really crappy logic (see post: If I die, kill X, Y, without any good reasoning, that's horrible town play). I don't want to vote for him since it would be very anti-spirit-of-the-game, as I think he's town. But I wouldn't mind seeing him play better - and it's not just me, others said he screwed up multiple times. - Beneather (based on clue analysis) - don't know what to say about him, too little information - Jackal58 (based on clue/posts analysis) - may vote for him, but his retaliation posts do make sense, so he doesn't seem scummy for now - BrownBear (based on the few posts above, might be mafia and fake-claiming so that town doesn't pick the reds from the inactive list) - possible, but unlikely IMO ...and like 5-6 others if you'll listen to Coagulation who obviously knows the entire red team based on strong facts. So yeah, and to think I wanted to bring someone else on the radar and hope to convince enough of the town to lynch them, but with 5+ candidates on the line, it's not gonna happen. | ||
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If I were DT and I've had seen Nemesis get away right before deadline, I'd have checked him. If he'd have turned green, I'd have kept quiet about - which might be the case. If he'd have turned red, I'd wait to see if he gets lynched anyway, and if he doesn't, then I'd claim and make sure town lynches a red. So if he doesn't get lynched tonight, and no DTs come up to say he's red, we can be fairly sure he's town... Though, most of the reasoning doesn't make sense if he's SK. | ||
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And the fact that people are not openly defending him also means that he's probably green. There are just too many things that don't mix with him being red. | ||
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Which means that we're just missing one hit, probably an SK who forgot to send their hits in. Or an SK that had his computer broken. *giggles* @Deconduo / Jackal = I mean yesterday, not today. Obviously. | ||
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On January 31 2011 06:41 GMarshal wrote: I'm going to point, out that that is a ridiculous claim as IIRC SK are bullet proof, If I were a SK why would I claim to have been protected. Well I was kidding, but technically, the only way to disprove you is to have all medics claim, and that's not gonna happen. So you can claim vig, you can claim protection, or you can not claim at all, it doesn't really matter. But yeah. | ||
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Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours. I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread. First of all, town sucks. Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this. We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help. Here's what I think: a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him". It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav. b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that? If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it. c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him. I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night. Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather? I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail. Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red. | ||
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As far as I understand, there's no clues towards the SK. Mafia did roleblock BB (according to him). So I think clues are about the mafia. | ||
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And I'm not gonna vote for Nemesis, sorry Jackal. | ||
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On January 29 2011 11:30 CubEdIn wrote: This seems rather honest to me. The fact is, if he was a mafia trying not to get lynched he would: a) claim medic or vig b) try to get more votes on RoL, instead he's picking me, who was only picked on by one dude so far. It's like.. the least possible scenario to try and get me pushed during the last 2 hours. It can only mean that he's just trying to help town and actually thinks I'm scum. Which is fair enough. He could still be SK, maybe, but I'm gonna take my vote off him. And put it on... ummm... someone else. Look at his post, and my reasoning below This is not how a mafia posts when he's that close to being lynched. Have you even played this game before? A vig claim, (even though it might be true for jackal), is much more effective at diverting a lynch... here's the proof in tonight's tally.. | ||
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Also, that was a horrible lynch, I hope to god Nemesis was SK because he sure as hell wasn't mafia. | ||
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On February 02 2011 02:14 Jackal58 wrote: We are going to eventually need a number on the SK population. I'd get that tonight. If we know that number it eliminates people guessing about vig shots. For now it's more important to know if we're correct about lynches. Number of kills were low, so most likely we have 2 mafia KPs and 1 SK. If the number of KPs starts fluctuating inexplicably, then sure, we could, but so far we have no idea whatsoever about who is mafia. A confirmed red kill would allow us to get a lot of information. Basically, if Nemesis wasn't mafia, we have a good deal of information on the people who pushed on him during the past two days. | ||
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Oh we have 8 blues, that's AWESOME! Just like the number of SKs, if we find out that there is 1sk or 2sk, how will that help town? At best we'll realize that there are people who did not claim hits, but then what? But if we know if our lynch is correct, it will open up new doors. | ||
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On February 02 2011 03:27 Kavdragon wrote: In regards to GMarshal being Mafia\SK: No. There's behavioral analysis behind it, not even clue analysis. It's all speculation based off the "Wouldn't it be interesting if..." It's a pointless discussion that's not going to go anywhere without behavioral analysis to support it, and right now, that analysis doesn't support it. In regards to Beneather being Mafia: Yes. It's likely that he is mafia. Yes, I regret my hasty choice, picking him as BG sucks. Remember, I screwed my self over by not realizing that the BG choices had to be submitted BEFORE I was mayor. No. We shouldn't lynch him yet. Lynching BG's this early is a bad idea, and I'm not saying that because I'm the mayor. Talking about these two will only waste time for now. Let them keep posting, and let's move our attention elsewhere for now. For at least tonight, I think we should pressure Zerroth, Papapanda, and Divinek. While I think that the posting demographic isn't super likely to have mafia in it, it's going to be the hardest demographic to analyze. If anyone else has targets to put out there, please, do so. I'd suggest doing so after daybreak, don't give mafia reasons to kill you if you come up with a strong analysis on one of them. Or SK for that matter. | ||
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Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now. I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging. Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?) Here are the options: 1) bumatlarge is SCUM Let's start with this one because it's most fun. Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason. Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him. We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*. Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us. Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever. 2. bumatlarge is DT Then he is right about SK. He will help the town further on. There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop. Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that: a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming. Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town. So, let's draw the line and think of options: 1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future 2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values. And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase. | ||
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On February 02 2011 19:02 Barundar wrote: + Show Spoiler + On February 02 2011 18:50 CubEdIn wrote: Ok, NEWBIES, time for Cube to post. Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now. I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging. Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?) Here are the options: 1) bumatlarge is SCUM Let's start with this one because it's most fun. Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason. Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him. We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*. Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us. Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever. 2. bumatlarge is DT Then he is right about SK. He will help the town further on. There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop. Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that: a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming. Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town. So, let's draw the line and think of options: 1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future 2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values. And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase. Rofl at delayed rage. Didn't feel like that yesterday? Where is that analysis you promised me? What do you mean? We only knew that he is not red when Kav posted census results. I tried to get him off the lynch several times but nobody cared. As for my analysis, do you really want me to post that now, when we have a clear pick between two people? It was directed at GMarshall and it was about how I think it's 80% sure he is SK or red. Now I got my foot stuck in my mouth, but i'll still post it after we get rid of Lunar and see if he was indeed SK. | ||
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That night post was not nearly as "absolving" as HIS post was. And nobody cared. Besides, the night post was picking at Steelers, which was tied to Jackal58 not Nemesis. Are you trying to distract town from the problem at hand? | ||
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On February 02 2011 22:57 Eti307 wrote: Brownbear seems to be really pushing for us to lynch LD... that's kinda suspicious to me. If LD is indeed SK then he's a threat to mafia as well. He might decide to help town and hit the people with the most links to clues in night posts (and Brownbear can be linked to some) Just a tought Oh God, we did this in PYP mafia and it blew. Look, nobody is saying that bumatlarge is not scum. He PROBABLY is. But they FED us a SK. And bum's claim can easily be verified. If he is scum we have SK + 2 scum targets. I don't see how that's a bad thing. | ||
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On February 03 2011 01:58 darmousseh wrote: At the same time why the heck would they role block a bodyguard unless they were planning on hitting the mayor? As far as I know, roleblocking BG doesn't mean he stops protecting the mayor. But, if BG is blue (like VIG) you can roleblock him and he can't use his power. Also, you don't have to be blue to be targeted by RB. Mafia can't know who is who, and you get informed either way, right? Now I don't know what to say about letting SK live. If the town is ok with it, I'll play along, but did he even admit he is SK? | ||
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Also, not to pick on Lunar, but why is he so valuable? Did he lead us to a mafia? Did he reveal things that nobody else could? As far as I can tell, he voted for both Nemesis and RoL, which, if you trust Kav (and you post like you do), were not red. I'm not saying he is a bad player, I think he's good actually, but you are suggesting that we kill a possible DT and keep an almost certain SK alive? How is that good for the town? @BrownBear: I agree with most of what you said except for this: 1: Lynch LD 2: Kav checks number of SKs 3: Based on that info we lynch or don't lynch bum and beneather. Why check the number of SKs? I get the logic of it, since we're not lynching Mafia, census for red will stay @ 5, but we should easily be able to identify if SK died based on kill power alone, during the night, no? Wouldn't it be better to check number of DTs or something? Maybe it flips 0 and then we're sure bum is scum. The reason I'm saying this is because I believe that LD is SK, but I don't trust bum is blue. So SK number will probably return 0, but that won't give us information on bum and beneather. | ||
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On February 03 2011 05:31 GMarshal wrote: I disagree with you I think more KP in the hands of the town are always a good thing (that's why we like having vigis),(this assumes town has good analysis, which given our track record, is a poor assumption) although your point about giving us more time is very valid. I think that just going to be a point of disagreement between us, for now I'll agree that killing LD is the best course of action, its not like he is going to flip for us anyway, we might as well hang the almost certain SK. We should still discuss what we are going to do about bum, and how to check his claim. That would be true, if you had good reason to believe town is great at hunting scum. Instead, where are we now? 12 green/blue + 5 mafia + 1 sk? If we drop KP, we will have 2 deaths per night, TOPS. If we don't, then we'll have 3 deaths per night. Let's take the best possible scenario for your reasoning, and beneather+bum are both scum. We lynch one of them tonight, sk kills the other during the night, we'll have: 11 green/blue (1 died to mafia) + 3 mafia + 1 sk. From this point on, SK is far more likely to kill town then he is to kill mafia, because, let's face it, these two hits have been handed on a platter if they're scum. So we'll have 2kp, one of which we sort-of control, and then get to one point where we have to waste one kp to get rid of the other kp. On the other hand, if we get rid of SK now, and check on bum during the night, we can still get rid of all three of them with use of Vig+next lynch, and we'll get to: 10 town + 5 + 0 tonight => 10 town + 3 mafia (1 lynched, 1vig shot) + 0 before next night. Which of these would you like? 11+3+1 or 10+3+0 Which looks better for the town for you? Of course, this is based on a lot of presumption, and I'm not even considering the fact that bum could not be scum, in which case town has a DT as well. Blah. I'm tired of explaining this, so I won't talk much tomorrow (as I got school stuff to do as well). I still believe LunarD is best lynch for town. If people decide to trust him, then we'll see what happens. | ||
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The only people who have a reason to keep quiet when hit are SKs, and the KPs do not justify more than one SK. Which, by now, it's clear that it was Lunar. Why I didn't bring up Insane? Well, first of all, PYP was like... last week, two weeks ago? Insane was what, October? I don't remember much part from me suspecting L and Ace, and Pandain winning in the end. If L did something similar, then he must've done it after I died, as I don't recall him being a 3rd party. I dunno. As for bum's analysis, I'll get to it later on, or during the night. I just can't right now, I have a final exam tomorrow morning, and after that I'll be somewhat free. Either way, I did skim through it, and I believe that the reason he's pushing me is because I kept saying he's most likely scum in my crusade to get the SK lynched. I still believe that, by the way, the only difference between him and SK is that he can easily get checked out during this night (by census, DTs, etc.). | ||
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And if you were RB last night, it only means that bum & beneather are scum, and that's how they figured out LD was SK. That makes it easier. Lynch LD tonight, vets, kill bum & beneather. EZ PZ. | ||
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On February 04 2011 06:59 Coagulation wrote: wait wait wait. hold on. this could be purely speculation still. Lunardestiny could be capitalizing on a chance to avoid getting lynched today by just telling us this because it will get his ass off the line. Think about it. What reason does LD HAVE to DENY that he was roleblocked. OF Course hes gonna say he was roleblocked to get off the block. Whether he was or not. Hm, I guess that's true. But what are the odds of Beneather (who's been targeted by the town, and who bumatlarge "confirmed") getting Role-Blocked on the same night that SK got revealed? Slim. I don't see why this should change anything though. KILL THEM ALL! | ||
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I thought we were lynching LunarD regardless of whether or not bumatlarge was scum, that was the whole freaking point of my mile-long posts explaining the maths behind this. So we went from lynching 2 mafia and sk, and leaving the reds with 1kp, to lynching only the mafia and leaving the anti-town with 2kps? And you guys think that's an awesome idea? Oh, and because I went to sleep and didn't change my vote like you did, I'm scum now, according to LD? That's fking rich. Even though I constantly pushed the idea of bum being scum and nemesis not being scum, I'm red! Yes, LunarD, I still want you dead. Deal with it. | ||
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On February 04 2011 11:21 LSB wrote: Modkill SiNiquity too! Is SiN dead or not? It says he will be modkilled in the voting thread. | ||
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On February 04 2011 07:59 darmousseh wrote: How sure are you about cubed? In mini mafia he was playing ridiculously scummy but ended up being town. Ridiculously scummy? Are you fking kidding me? All I did was find clues that pointed to Dr.H, and tried to defend myself from the clues that were so "smartly" tied to me: "Uhhh.. Raiden is god of thunder so uhh... this picture has snow in it so... uhhh... I guess that snow, is sorta-like-an-element, and thunder is... also an element (?!?) so, steps in snow can easily point to Raiden!" "Town: Yeah that's brilliant. LYNCH!" | ||
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Statistically speaking, we are far more likely to be taking down town. And even if we don't, I dread the day when town will have to waste both kps (vote to lynch SK), because that will be an awesome day for the remaining mafia. But if town trusts their scum-finding skills (which I wouldn't, based on what happened so far), then by all means, we'll keep you alive and you can go around whacking reds.  | ||
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On February 04 2011 17:04 darmousseh wrote: That was not the evidence I came up with. Well, whatever evidence you came up with, turned out to be incorrect. No? >: P | ||
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On February 04 2011 17:48 darmousseh wrote: Yes the evidence was wrong, but my analysis of your play wasn't. You play town incorrectly in order to give yourself an advantage since no one can analyze the difference between your mafia and town since you are overly aggressive. If you had simply said "Well yeah, but I think there is better evidence elsewhere" then I might not have spent as much time analyzing you and spent more time on clues to find the right mafia. The fact that you acted so overly aggressive made me think that even though the clues weren't as good as they should be, your play was terrible and you made everyone turn against you. I feel sorry for mafia if you are mafia since you constantly make yourself a prime target and bad for the rest of us who are trying to play the game in order to win and not play to improve your own "meta-game". You've been a lot quieter in this game up until this point which makes me suspect you are mafia. Actually, no. I've been just as aggressive this game when people have placed blame on me for silly reasons. In the other game, I was accused of "forging" clues, when the clues I picked as to be aiming at Dr.H were far more reasonable than the ones you guys picked as pointing on me. But I guess that it's easy to just bandwagon someone you're not sure of and go "oh... he's too aggressive, it's as if he doesn't want to die!", then to actually think and take all things into consideration (like how I didn't vote in Day 1 and risked being lynched, people don't do that if they get mafia, because the game is more interesting). But I digress. Point is, so far, your analysis on me was flat out wrong. As it is during this game as well. You suspect I am mafia because I'm being quiet, but you're downright dismissing the facts that - i tried to stop town from lynching nemesis, and I was the only one to do so - i figured out that the most likely option is that LD is SK and bum+beneather are scum since he posted the "DT check" Go see HP mafia to see how I handle myself as scum. Or don't. Also: On February 04 2011 20:22 Barundar wrote: For tonights actions, please protect GMarshal. We need Kav alive. In case I'm dead tomorrow, I think the remaining 2 mafia can be found by analysing who pushed the Lunar lynch. I also pushed the Lunar lynch. I still am. But I did so by saying that EVEN THOUGH bum+beneather are probably scum, we should still get rid of ALL THREE OF THEM. And it was pretty easy to see if bum/beneather was scum with a simple dt check on either (or both, worst case scenario). And just in case you're not realizing this, the only way for LunarD to win is to knock over townies, not mafia. If both him and the town miss lynches/shots, you might get to a situation like 5-3-1, where town will be forced to pick between lynching SK or killing off two people and risk getting to 3-3-1, in which case SK can start offing mafia. I'm just saying, I don't see why a town SK would help the town eliminate all the mafia and then sacrifice himself. It's a sure loss, and it's pretty much against the "spirit of the game", meaning, he's not playing to win. At least that's what I would do if I were sk, kill beneather tonight, then try to kill as many townies as I can without looking conspicuous. But obviously you guys know better. | ||
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But to say that I'm scum because I didn't change my vote, even though I said I'll be going to sleep due to schoolwork, is kind of a stretch. And I'm not talking about you, but at least two people accused me of that. Meh. Anyway. If mods dismiss LD these would be like.. the best 24 hours that town had in this game by far. | ||
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DON'T DO IT LUNAR, THERE'S MORE TO LIFE THAN SHOOTING PEOPLE! Can you consider becoming a shaolin monk?! | ||
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On February 05 2011 13:20 Kenpachi wrote: wait a second, is it possible for LD to be a mafia acting as SK? Yeah mean, here's what happened: Mafia decided... hey... it's been a lot of time and we're still 5 people, why don't we do this: Bum: I'll claim DT, and claim that LD is SK, and then claim Beneather is Vanilla. LD: YEAH! that sounds awesome, maybe the mods will make it so I manage do /dodge lynch and maybe the town will keep me alive forever, even though I'll never be able to prove I have an extra KP. Beneather: LOL that's fine with me I'm BG I can't die ever for I am BG. Chorus: That way, all three of us will be in epic sh*t! That'll make the game more interesting! /dance On February 05 2011 13:26 Jackal58 wrote: But one of our scum is. Indiana Jones. In a cave. With bats. Proclaiming we are all going to die. Mebbe prove it! | ||
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On February 05 2011 22:19 Jackal58 wrote: + Show Spoiler + On February 05 2011 18:25 CubEdIn wrote: Yeah mean, here's what happened: Mafia decided... hey... it's been a lot of time and we're still 5 people, why don't we do this: Bum: I'll claim DT, and claim that LD is SK, and then claim Beneather is Vanilla. LD: YEAH! that sounds awesome, maybe the mods will make it so I manage do /dodge lynch and maybe the town will keep me alive forever, even though I'll never be able to prove I have an extra KP. Beneather: LOL that's fine with me I'm BG I can't die ever for I am BG. Chorus: That way, all three of us will be in epic sh*t! That'll make the game more interesting! /dance Mebbe prove it! Working on it. + Show Spoiler + On January 24 2011 11:01 Node wrote: Day 1 It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain. I thought this pointed at Mr Zergling. But it doesn't really does it? It points at your movie scene. And you are explaining that "We're all going to die". + Show Spoiler + On February 02 2011 11:25 LSB wrote: Day 4 One place that I refuse to go. It is the caves. Those lightless caverns. I’ve tried avoiding it. So does this. The scene in your profile is from the Temple of Doom. Indy is trying to persuade whatever the chicks name is to enter the cave to throw the lever and save them. Yeah that's nice and all, but if you'd pay a bit more attention to the last few pages you'd realize that the 1st person narrative in the clues so far have been about the SK. It was the SK that killed deconduo and the aldo. Unless you mean that the SK had a clue that was referring to me somehow... o_O As for the first night, I guess that kinda makes sense, if you consider Indiana Jones to be a scary film. It is a tad of a stretch though But heck, I've been hanged for less. *cough* mini mafia *cough* | ||
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On February 05 2011 21:35 Barundar wrote: Any objections to kill lunar today? It will lower the kp we face, and the alternative is we lynch a mafia, leaving lunar to hit town, since hitting the last mafia would end the game. Also, no, we shouldn't kill lunar today. LSB clearly stated that Lunar can commit suicide. Lunar said he wanted to "retire". So technically, there's no reason to waste a lynch if Lunar just offs himself. I guess it's still a sort-of a risk, if he decides to kill someone for the lulz, but even in that case, he might hit a red, and we can lynch him afterwards. Worst case scenario, we just lose a townie. | ||
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On February 06 2011 02:13 Jackal58 wrote: That is nice and all. Both clues are in the first clue set that points to mafia. Some are first person some are not. All of LD's clues ore in the second clue set that points to the SK. You are scum. Oh, is that so? Let's review all days: Day 2: "I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. How fitting." -> Aldo was a hit claimed by LD Day 3: "The other man didn’t do anything. And because the mods frown on not submitting your night action, we’re giving you clues on him even though he didn’t kill anyone." -> No first person, no hit of SK, how strange! Day 4: "I immediately headed back to the camp in order to find help. I grabbed the first person I saw, Deconduo and asked him to help me remove ilovejohn’s body. Deconduo didn’t help me. As soon as he realized that I wanted him to go inside, he fled. He didn’t get two steps before I killed him. Serves him right." -> Deconduo was a hit claimed by LD Day 5: "I have cornered my prey. Beneather is, fittingly, beneath me. I have him pinned to the ground, and the numerous small wounds endured over the course of the chase have built up to too much. He can barely speak, but with what is left of his voice he begs and pleads for his pathetic life. He says he his sorry. I tell him it doesn’t matter. He says he can give me anything, everything. This town is full of cowards, but before me lies one of the worst." -> Beneather is the person that LD said he'd kill. So, please, show me where I am wrong, or where there is a clue to someone other than LD in first person. And make it good. | ||
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" A beast hunched over him, an alien form that I had never seen before. “I’m sorry. I do this for the greater good,” it growled, and then the ground cracked open under it, and it disappeared." That is the killer of ilovejohn. And the SK is the one looking at him. Are you saying that the location points to me? But not the killer (description/words/the fact that it disappeared?). Awesome. Even better than steelers. | ||
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A beast hunched over him, an alien form that I had never seen before. Hmm, like a zergling, or a hydralisk? “I’m sorry. I do this for the greater good,”like, you know, the overmind it growled, and then the ground cracked open under it, and it disappeared.kinda like a burrow-thing? Now let's look at papapanda's profile picture. Of course, I can understand how this is a much weaker connection than caves -> indiana jones -> caves pointing at killer but description not pointing at killer. Bravo! A+. | ||
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I mean, worst case scenario, they can't kill panda twice, right? | ||
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I mean, it's pretty clear that a zerg unit was portrayed. | ||
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As for night 4. It is clearly a zerg unit. If you can convince people that it's the caves that point to me, then I guess I deserve to be lynched. I'm not gonna bother fighting this kind of epic-detective-work again. You have the partial-clue in day one and that's all. Day 4 would not contain clues about TWO mafias, unless there were missing KPs, which there were not. So your argument resorts to: was it referring to me, or was it describing a zerg unit? Let's ask the audience! | ||
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I never claimed you are mafia though, I even said so back when we were deciding first lynch. I just don't see why you would try and push something on me even when I proved that the clue you are referring to is actually pointing at someone else. | ||
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Two clues pointing at you -> one clue sort-of pointing at you -> let's lynch you + shoot me -> lynch you, shoot divinek. Yeah. Subtle. | ||
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I think you're just scared of dying, because you're convinced that I'm scum. Sorry to disappoint. | ||
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But that's fine with me, I'll get lynched with a grin on my face if you get deadded tonight. :D | ||
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Yes, brainiac. I know I can't kill you. BECAUSE I'M NOT MAFIA. (nor am I vig). ...god, when I acted like you're acting now, in mini-mafia against Dr.H, I was lynched on the spot for being "way to aggressive", and my clue analysis was a bit more elaborated than your half-reasoned clue, after I completely destroyed your argument about night 4. But now town is going "ah, I guess you're kinda right, but let's not push it just yet". Look, I never denied that the clue CAN be interpreted as referring to me. But there were a lot of mafia kills since, do you have any other clue? Did I act like scum? No. Town has enough time to lynch both of us, so let's just DO THAT. Heck, I'll even go first. But please stop whining that nobody listens to you, because the reason they're not listening to you is that your whole case against me is based on a partial-clue back on the first night. I bet that if I go through the profiles of everyone in here I can find something that is somewhat related to a scary movie. Like, I don't know, a flaming horse head, Jesus on a dinosaur, etc. Face it, man, it's not that good of a clue, and you have no argument part from that. Let's just lynch eachother and have the town deal with the aftermath. I'll go first. | ||
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On February 09 2011 01:32 darmousseh wrote: Suspected Mafia list Impervious (same reasons as other people) Brown Bear (laughing and singing clue from the other day) cubed(scummy play in general, speed test (fast from clues) I'm less suspicious however of cubed because he turned out to be town in mini mafia V even though he played terribly. Please elaborate "Scummy play in general". I want to see posts where my attitude is clearly scummy. Also, it would be nice if you gave reasons other than "same as other people" and "clues", which state that you're just hopping on band wagons. I mean, if you're gonna point fingers, at least come up with your own reasons, like others have. Now, unless I'm imagining things, I saw a photo of an IV last night when the post came up. But now I see there are pills. Would it be possible that the IV was too much of a clue? I've been going on people's profiles but I can't find a connection to the IV so it might be in vain. Also, Kav said "I was actually legitimately Role-blocked last night, and tonight.". Does that mean you didn't get any census report? | ||
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I was just wondering because you stated yesterday that you HAVE been rb-ed, and yet you had census results. Now you have been role-blocked again and you didn't mention census. But I understand why you're not sharing blues. | ||
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On February 09 2011 05:19 Impervious wrote: The mafia need to outnumber the town to win. They can't technically outnumber the town when there is only 1 left..... I beg to disagree. The mafia need outnumber the town to win by default (since they'll control both night hits and votes), but mafia can still win with one player. So basically, if it gets to the point when there are 4 players during the day, if they do not lynch the mafia, mafia wins (3 players, one dies at night, there will be 2 players left, no vote majority, mafia wins). I was all sorts of confused when Kav said we need to only kill one mafia (I was thinking he has DT check on one of the two), but if this is what he meant, then no, we need to kill both mafia. If there's another medic left, part from Kav, do not claim. Mafia still has role-block, obviously, so protecting each other won't work. So, I guess that the clues about "medics trying to keep him alive" are not actually clues, but facts, since he was supposed to be defended by medic tonight. Kav, may I ask how mafia would know that you were medic? You have been role-blocked twice in a row now, so they were most likely sure about that. Did you claim to anyone before you claimed to town? Note that it's not possible for DT to check you while you are mayor, so the information must've come from you. I'm just saying, since I was under the impression that you are in something of a town circle or such. Think of the godfather even if the people were confirmed by DT. | ||
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On February 09 2011 05:37 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Number crunching, including today, we have four days until we get down to three people at the beginning of the day cycle. So that means that either it's two mafia, and they win, or it's two town and one mafia. Then it would be LYLO, town would have to guess the mafia right, or else 1 town lynch + mafia NK = Game Over If there were two mafia left, then it's lylo @ 6 people left (or 5, depending on how it plays out). But worst case scenario is 2 mafia left, 6 ppl during the day. If you miss-lynch then it's 5 people during the night, 4 at dawn, at which point both mafia instant-vote one of the other two, and it's gg. | ||
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On February 09 2011 05:23 Jackal58 wrote: Lynch Cubed ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/laJpO.gif) | ||
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Or so I think, we were never good at those things here in Romania. @ darmousseh: - read kingmaker mafia where I was mafia with pandain - read harry potter mafia where I was mafia and kept alive reasonably long - you still haven't shown me proof of scummy play (like, you know, posts) - you all threw rocks at me in mini-mafia because I picked on DrH with pertinent clues. I still consider they were more pertinent than what you guys had against me. But anyway, let's not go there. I didn't make myself impossible to read as town, I just get overly-aggressive in my defense, I admit that, and I'm trying to rectify it. At least appreciate the effort. + Show Spoiler + | ||
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For only one mafia, 4 people alive -> lylo. However, assuming no hits will be blocked till the end, it will be an odd number, so: If no mafia die: lylo in 3 days If one mafia dies: lylo in 4 days But think about it, there are 2 mafia left (assuming kav is not lying), there will be clues after each night, so even if they take turns, there will be at least 2 more clues pointing at one person. 2 pointing at each if you count the one from today. So at the very least, town should be able to lynch one mafia based on clues alone. I still didn't get any kind of confirmation from anyone else about the picture of the IV. Was it there or was I dreaming already (11 here is 4am my time)? Can someone humor me and see if they can tie an IV to anyone's profile? I went through them again but most profiles are just a picture, not much background to go by. As for the XTC, the only connection I see is impervious, as horse is slang for heroin. But it's kind of a stretch. And no, I didn't realize the pun 'till you pointed it out. I lol'd. | ||
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And that in all my arguments, I stated that we should kill all three of them. I later agreed with Kav that if we have 100% confirmation on all three, it was wiser to use LD to kill one mafia, and thus drop mafia KP to 1 first, and then drop SK KP to 0. But I guess it's ok to ignore some facts when drawing the line and deciding someone is red. Through all that chaos I never once said that bum/beneather should get away, just that it was wiser to lynch LD, and have them confirmed during the night. Which is practically what the whole town thought as well (see voting thread). You're talking about it as if it was something extremely divided, and LD got off at the last second, but soon after bum posted that LD is SK the voting thread was full of "lynch LunarD". I would rather focus on the ones who voted without participating, rather than the ones who actually made good arguments and try to reason the decision. | ||
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On February 09 2011 20:27 Barundar wrote: Oh lol, not the least suspecious of DivineK? Just defense of yourself and finger pointing to others. Asking for DT checks "to confirm" Bum doesn't do you any favor since it would a) force a real DT to claim, b) lead to a bunch of wifom regarding the godfather. You might have said kill them all, but you pushed for SK lynch over using him. Providing clues and arguments for lynching SK doesn't do you any favors. Thats what mafia bussing is all about. In my opinion at least 1 of Divinek and Cubed is scum, and possibly both. I am suspicious of everyone. Fear not. I didn't ask anyone to claim (in fact, if you'll read my posts I always advised against claiming), since I was under the impression that there are town circles. It could also be verified in other ways as well. And please see PYP mafia to understand why I pushed SK lynch. And if the mods wouldn't have verified him via the PM think, would you have let him kill the person who claimed DT? That's the smart town move? Are you honestly trying to say that if you had no information on bumatlarge you would've lynched the claimed DT first, because he claimed? Without trying to verify if he's even telling the truth? Or the bodyguard? Which of them was the PRO-TOWN choice? Maybe you have the 6th sense and realized they were mafia, I didn't. And I clearly explained my reasoning 10 times over. And most players agreed (like GM and Kav) that it's best to kill SK rather than have him hit one of them. I'm sure that in retrospect, it's easy to say "you were trying to save scum", but I did no such thing. Go over my posts again if you think so. And besides, I'll say this again: Me and BrownBear were the only one arguing FOR lynching LunarDestiny, but the thread was full of votes for him. What about the mass that voted for him without even bothering to explain? Why is that irrelevant? There are at least 3-4 people in this game that are just cruising along with 1-2 posts per day. That's not suspicious, right? And yeah Jackal, I know it's easy, I can do that as well, vote for you at the beginning of the day and then stay out of all town discussions. It's good that everyone is playing along and letting you be, it's not suspicious or anything. And I get it that you think I'm scum, but how about trying to find more links rather than the day one clue. Statistically speaking, I should have partaken in at least 2-3 of the kills so far, no? | ||
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@Kav: don't forget about census, just in case you're gonna live through the night. I'm not gonna tell you what to do with it, but I think checking red is best, unless you have other plans and whatnot. I'm gonna vote for Imperv mostly because of the horse->heroin connection, and also because I kinda trust Kav (if he's red, town lost anyway). | ||
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On February 10 2011 03:27 Barundar wrote: I read your posts, did you? And yeah people including myself voted for lunar, since it was clear he was anti town, but we kept the possibility of using ld open. Question was on who, not if it was a possibility. Even after it was clear that bum and beneather was scum, you and divenek pushed on for lynching LD. Kav and coag led the votes on bum/beneather, 1 is dead and the other is soon to be. Mafia didnt bus their own, town did. But mafia wouldnt let 2 of them die without a fight if they didn't bus them themselves. Only 2 people did keep trying to divert the lynch to LD, you and divinek. Now im willing to believe one of you could be a misguided town. But not both of you. Hence you both need to die. What are you talking about. I always said that if town wants to use LD I'm in. You're blaming me again for not changing my vote during the last 3 hours of the day? I posted like once and went to sleep after bum was "confirmed". I didn't push squat. This was the only post after confirmation of bum: On February 04 2011 07:00 CubEdIn wrote: SK cannot be role-blocked. And if you were RB last night, it only means that bum & beneather are scum, and that's how they figured out LD was SK. That makes it easier. Lynch LD tonight, vets, kill bum & beneather. EZ PZ. How is that pushing? How was I to know everyone would change their vote, and I'd get blamed for not playing along? Why would we not get rid or both ld and scum if we had vigs? And how would I know (even if I were mafia) that we had no vigs? Nobody claimed to be a vigilante and there were no extra KPs that could be unexplained, so it made sense that vigs would still have their power (had they been alive). ... | ||
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Throughout the game, I have suspected a lot of people who later on died. GMarshal was one of my prime suspects, actually, especially due to some things in the first part of the game. Then, I looked into Coagulation, Kenpachi, but compared to the other games they're just behaving normally. (Kenpachi has a gift for looking scummy btw, but I don't think he's scum). I didn't think that Jackal is scum, I thought it was just tunneling, and I get that you have to try and rattle people in this game. But today when he said that he'll "keep doing that until he dies", mixed with the fact that some people take him for granted makes me think that it's a really really clever way to stay out of focus. He has me to target, and he doesn't have to give any other reasons than the clue. He'll just keep voting me until one of us dies, and only after that he needs to find another target (probably Divinek), and only after THAT, people will find him suspicious, and it might be too late. (I still agree with the trade, by the way, to get us both lynched, but you seemed to have turned from "trading" to "kill them both and then maybe somewhat consider me". But that's ok. For now. Kav, I don't trust Kav. I haven't trusted kav since the beginning, but he did seem to help town in some tight spots and he figured out some things by himself (like pointing out bum before he claimed and whatnot). He also seems fishy with things like... he knew the mafia knew he was medic, but he didn't let the town know. Why? And even after the hit on him, he let people go on after clues before saying that he was protecting GM (at least I was trying to find a connection to 'the doctors couldn't help him', when in fact it was a straight-out explanation that he was medic protected but the medic was role-blocked). However, this doesn't matter, at all. If Kav was mafia he was still truthful about census, and his play would've been damn-right perfect. So if he was scum, then town has lost already. BrownBear - I like him the most, because in many points throughout the game we were pretty much saying the same things, so we somewhat think alike. I was expected to be "paired" with him as mafia, not Divinek, but I see the reasoning there. And due to the fact that I know I'm green, and we posted pretty much the same things, I'll give him a 99% green in my book. Barundar - I don't know. He poked at me twice during this game, but it seems reasonable. I'm not good at post analysis so I just do/say what I think. I didn't build up an opinion on him, but I was thinking that if he did nail some things on the mafia he'd have been dead a while back. So he might mean well but he hasn't proven as useful as Kav, for example. I would vote for easily if a clue pointed at him though. Impervious - It's not just the connection, even though it's the ONLY connection that was found in the clue, it's also Kav's post regarding you, and the fact that the town is voting for you. I really don't know who to vote for, but someone has to die, and you're more than a coinflip to me due to the clue. I know it's terrible, I said it's terrible, but it's better than nothing at all. If Kav hadn't had the hunch about you, I would've probably voted for myself tonight. However, the fact that he only reacted when I voted for him is suspicious. There are what, 4-5 votes on him already, but when I vote for him he switches focus on me? Probably because part from him, I'm most likely to get lynched, so it's the only way out. As for everyone else, I really don't have any clear thoughts on them. Mostly because they've been quiet, this includes darmousseh. I really don't like his play style, mainly because he bandwagons and FoSs only people who have been FoS-ed before. He's just sitting in a corner, laughing when everyone else is laughing, and tagging along for the ride, but he isn't even trying to bring his own contribution. In fact, the only meaningful contribution was "well, I also pushed cube in mini mafia, and he was town!". Well played there, powerful argument. So, let's end it with Divinek. I also find him as sort-of a lurker. He doesn't say much, he doesn't do much, he mostly replies when he's being targeted. But the reason I left him for last is that... there are others that do the same. There's no good reason why I would think he is scum just because of that. And if you want me to agree that rooting for LD was scummy, then I would have to admit that what I did/said was scummy as well, which is dumb. If that's your reasoning, then there are three scum in the game left, since BB did the same. That being said, it's very possible that if the mafia knew there would only be two people left, then they would take different sides. One pushing for LD, someone pushing against LD. That's what I would do in that scenario. Anyway, bottom line is that I don't really know if Divinek is scummy or not. But I don't think that his push for LD was scummy, so much as his lurking and playing along is. If he'd give out more insight he'd be ok in my book but he never does. So no, I wouldn't even bother coming up with arguments against his lynch, nor would I bother with anyone else part from Kav or BrownBear. Unless someone makes an epic post like Nemesis did, that clears him of all guilt in my eyes. ...boy that was long. Please ask me to detail if I was unclear, because I don't have time to proof-read it. Cheers. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
On February 10 2011 04:43 Impervious wrote: Ya, the more I read into his posting, the more I'm starting to agree with Jackal..... Of course you do, who else can you find that the town would consider lynching instead of you? | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
Fear not, I'm gone for good this time. | ||
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CubEdIn
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I say we lynch cubed next for not changing his vote! No, just kidding. I know you guys mean well! @Kav: Just tell us who are your top 3 lynch candidates. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
I didn't produce opinions on ANYONE. Please understand that. When I did, I produced opinions on everyone. I'm not taking sides. If you want to pick Divinek out of that, be my guest. Also, I don't want to be grouped with anyone. I just explained who I would be against lynching: Kav and BB. That's all. And I even explained why. I didn't have to "choose" between him and divinek, like you're trying to make it look. I could've went with absolutely anyone in the game and your argument would be the same. Besides, you're acting as if Divinek is sure scum. Do you know that? Why are you assuming that I tried to "defend" him, even though I didn't, and now that he flipped scum, even though he didn't, I am backing out. Please. Also, I'm glad that you're dismissing Imprevious because nobody defended him. Part from the mass of people defending me ever since I've been targeted. That is a really good argument against, because mafia is surely stupid enough to try to get their target off the lynch by being the only person against the lynch. But you know what, I'm cool with that. Here's what I'm gonna do. I'm not gonna defend myself anymore. If you wanna lynch me, that's fine, but note this: If you misslynch now, and there are two mafia left, tomrrow will be lylo time. Have fun with killing me. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
And if you're right, the night clue will have to point at me. So there's absolutely nothing you should worry about! I fought as long as the arguments were valid (like the night one clue), but now you can bend and push however you want. If you want to see how I play town, read the games where I played town. Easy. All you're doing is saying I'm scummy for defending myself, and now I'm scummy for not defending myself. I already told you who I consider scummy, the lurkers. But I guess that coming in during the last hour, voting, then disappearing is not scummy at all. You are biased, that's all. You had little reason to lynch divinek and are ignoring when a lot of other people to the same. So fine, lynch me. If game doesn't end I expect town to take jackal and you down. And I think that's fair. Let's just stop arguing and do it. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [long posts] + On January 29 2011 10:41 CubEdIn wrote: What the fuck Coag? You can't act like you don't know this is extremely incriminating. So either you're: a) A really bad mafia player with Nemesis in their team b) A townie that feels like they don't wanna play anymore. You may do dumb things sometimes but I don't think you're dumb enough to be in case a). Which means that you're playing anti-town, which should be against the rules. Switching vote to someone who's gonna get mod-killed is just dumb, at least vote for yourself to show you're abstaining. On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote: Well, I got a bit more time to check out the thread. I don't like the page-long analysis on one individual. I mean, they would go great in mid-late game when you have like 50-60 posts to choose from and you pick the most incriminating ones, but if you analyze ALL the posts, then you're bound to find a bit of scum in everyone, but nothing very conclusive. That's my opinion on RoL's case at least. So I went back and looked at the clues. Needless too say, nothing obvious this time, but the second person showing up @ Meapak's murder site got me thinking. If two people go for one person (Mafia and SK or Mafia/Vig or SK/Vig), do we get clues on both assassins, or just the one who got there first? I think it's important to know, because if it happened during the first night, it's bound to happen again. Also, I am assuming that if mafia uses 2kp on same target, we will have indications towards two assassins as well, and information that they worked as a team, correct? (that's how it was in the first game of mafia I played). Also, I've been toying with an idea, I want to hear what the town thinks. Since we don't have information about who's what, even after they die, DTs are far more important in this game. So, I think that it's important that DTs play well. Since it's pretty safe to assume that Mafia has only 2kp (I'm thinking that that extra person was at best another SK, and that SiN is not lying, don't see WHY he would), then it's kind-of hard to kill a DT if town stacks medics upon them. That being said, I think DTs who find a red or sk, should immediately come up with it (preferably in a town circle, but since that's less likely, then to town). If we have at least two medics then it would take 3kps to kill DT, and even if they do stack them upon him, then it's probably worth losing 1 dt for 1 red. I'm saying this because if a DT finds someone important, and dies, we won't even know if he had any solid reason to push for whoever he was pushing in the thread. So, the basic idea is that we CAN'T rely purely on census this game. We need some kind of strong circle or something, to make sure that DTs can cooperate fully. That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN. Reasoning: He claimed he was hit. Scenarios: a) He is mafia. He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more. b) He is SK Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway. By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either. c) He is town This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on. The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town. On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote: Hello everyone. Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours. I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread. First of all, town sucks. Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this. We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help. Here's what I think: a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him". It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav. b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that? If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it. c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him. I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night. Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather? I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail. Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red. + another bunch of posts where I was urging the town not to vote Nemesis Point is, I did stand up and made points when I thought points were to be made. Though, I admit, I have been doing that less in the past few days. Mostly because I have a much stronger feeling about who isn't scum then about who might be. Although I will say that I appreciate the fact that you bothered to go through my previous games. This is the kind of analysis I was talking about. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
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Also, please note, from Mafia forum, when asking LSB if I can guess who second medic is: Qb3 02-10-2011 04:44 PM ET (US) Either Mr.Wiggles or BrownBear. \o/ These two were most "forgiven" by the town, even though they were just as, if not more obvious than I was. Mr. Wiggles for inactivity, BB for pushing same things I was pushing. It's a pity there were so many mod kills, and it's a pity nobody DTed me to have me confirmed green. Also, Coag was killed because he said "tell your scumbuddies we're coming for them" lol. I was like "naw you didn't!". | ||
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On February 11 2011 11:51 Coagulation wrote: cubed got played. UMAD? Lol you would have soaked up a hit if you were vet. Just read the mafia forum, we were offing people at random (well, we were kinda going after experienced if possible). But you, we were sure medics would not protect you, so you were a sure hit. The taunt was just a bonus. We only started picking our hits after bum decided to claim and panda got mod-killed. And we didn't feel "safe", at least I never felt safe because I saw how mafia got shredded in Harry Potter. The main issue is that we didn't have a more experienced player to lead us. I mean, I'm fairly new at this, bum was cool but a bit erratic, and the others were way less active than me. LSB gave us useful tips, but we needed a stronger leader in order to take this imo. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
There were people who were just never placed under suspicion. And it worked too, decisions were well-directed and backed-up by town. I don't know how we could have broken that. Also, killing DT first night and having the other one die greatly reduced GF importance. I was just hoping that if I argue enough I'll get checked and confirmed inside the circle, but no luck. Also #2: So, if there are two medics tonight, one of them will most likely be on Kav. However, we can RB kav, and hit someone else. We don't actually need to kill Kav. So we can: a) rb kav hit jackal (but I am under the impression that jackal is a vet or was under protection, otherwise he wouldn't come out like he did last night) b) kit kav and pray. Practically, if there's another medic, we can only find him by rb kav and hitting everyone else. But if we do that, then census will keep going and they'll always know they miss-lynched. My guesses were decent. Maybe next time. | ||
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Romania5359 Posts
On February 11 2011 12:15 Coagulation wrote: That pm was in context to this. Haha, okay then. But as I said, as long as we didn't hit vets or protected targets, we were jolly. It worked out nice 'till the 3-deaths-in-1-night. @Kav, oh, that's not what I meant. It's just that people are more prone to protect the ones inside the circle, and it showed, during the past 2-3 days. Just look at who was targeted for lynching. And yeah, DT would've made things more interesting. @Imp, yes I was, it's in the Role list now as well. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
You have to actually convince people and provide strong arguments in order to get people that you know are scum lynched. Do you really believe that town would've followed your lead if you had died after posting those? I sincerely doubt it. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
On February 11 2011 16:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm an ego maniac so I wanna know why I was killed. Oh and GG town, really well done especially Kav. I kinda wanted you dead because we kept postponing your murder in Harry Potter and because of that, DT trusted you, there was a whole alliance built around that, which eventually lead to us being cornered out of lack of claim possibilities. If kita (i think?) wouldn't have come to you, that game would've been a bit different. So yeah, that and the fact that you are more experienced gave us enough motives. That's why I suggested you and I did the killing. ^_^ | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
I thought the town would turn against you when I realized the clue on day4 was pointing at papapanda (it was an easy search since we knew who we sent for the kill lol), like they did against me in mini mafia, but when they just ignored all my "counter-proof", and absolutely nobody thought you were scum (even though you were accused of tunneling), I figured it was pointless to argue anymore, and there was no point in trying to kill you either... Although I would have, after Kav, and whine that mafia did that so town will lynch me. And that I would never be stupid enough to do that as mafia. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
So we decided (well, bum did) that someone should claim RB so that the town doesn't figure out that that's how we knew LD was SK. So Barundar did, and then LD was informed of unsuccessful RB. But yeah, normally, mafia shouldn't have to claim RB, unless they were RBed by town or something. Normally, we could've tried to lynch LD based on clues and such, without letting him know who mafia was. But he was too favored by the town-folk to do that in a reasonable time. | ||
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