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My reasoning was, I put it on you at the beginning of the day for two reasons:
1) At the beginning, you had the strongest case against you in the clues, which you have since refuted, but also in a general unease at how you have been playing so far. You really didn't do all that much before people started suspecting you, and now you're doing nothing except defending yourself.
2)I try to vote at the beginning of the day, because I know sometimes I can vanish, due to shitty internet, work, partying, life outside TL, whatever. When I do vanish, that can lead to danger of modkill if I don't get back in time. So I throw a vote on whoever I think is most likely at the start of the day, then change it as new candidates come.
So far, nobody has come forward that looks more suspicious than you, so my vote remains on you.
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Quick thoughts on Mr. Zergling:
Total posts since start of game: four. Yep. Four.
A quick look over of his profile didn't throw up any obvious clue connections, but I could have missed them easily. Jumping into his four posts:
On January 23 2011 14:54 Mr.Zergling wrote:
/confirm
Im waiting on my mayor vote till there is more than one candidate lol
Useless post, moving on:
On January 24 2011 14:46 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Still no other mayor candidates?
Still useless, moving on:
On January 25 2011 04:33 Mr.Zergling wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 03:36 LSB wrote:
Pandain and DoctorH have asked to be replaced.
Don't worry, there won't be modkills this game.
Edit: Hopefully Oh damn
Jesus, and I thought Coag was bad.
On January 26 2011 12:41 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Well, that was certainly a kick off...
Really weird not having flipping, I forgot there wasn't and came on just to see if we got a red xD
...
Verdict: I don't even know where to begin. He's successfully flown under the radar this entire game. I think we should start pressuring him to be more active, or it's the noose for him.
I'll give him the same calling-out spiel I gave Coag: Step up your game or swing tomorrow.
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He did respond to it, I think:
On January 29 2011 07:06 Nemesis wrote:Hmm, I just read over bum's analysis. I would agree with bum's analysis that I haven't really gone into too much detail into explaining some of my opinions, but I would disagree that that points to me being SK or mafia. And I have already pointed out why those clue analysis are crap. Just a couple of things to note though: Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 21:02 Nemesis wrote:
Kav, I wouldn't judge bum yet as scum. The way he is appearing to me is more of an impulsive townie as in he doesn't think before he post, and then realizes that what he was suggesting was bad.
Still I would like to see his response.
Aw, he will always be town in my heart. Doesn't mean he is though, red like to cut the strings to other people fairly quickly if they see an outcome ahead of time. If I got lynched, and then the next day we find mafia umbers are the same, nemesis can say itoldyaso. That is a rather big WIFOM. Although people were FoSing you, no one was voting for you so that means that you weren't even up for lynch, which makes it not only WIFOM, but wrong too.
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On January 29 2011 08:26 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 08:25 Node wrote:
2 and a half hours to go. Seeing as both hosts are busy and there's rampant inactivity, the night post will be delayed for two hours. That means 20:00 PST / 23:00 EST / 13:00 KST.
hardly inactive. more like rampant coag bashing.
Jesus, I've been levelheaded this entire time, but you're testing my patience. You really need to stop QQing and start playing the damn game.
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On January 29 2011 08:33 kitaman27 wrote:
Modkills hurt the town even more than usually because there will be no way to tell if our lynch was correct when there are a bunch of other deaths mixed into the census.
It's also very rare that modkills are mafia, because mafia is fun to play + they have teammates that will usually bug them to vote on time.
However, fortunately modkills don't interfere with the biggest way we're going to tell how many mafia are left in the game - counting the number of nightkills.
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Wow, I leave and RoL gets lynched. wat.
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On January 30 2011 07:50 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 07:37 d3_crescentia wrote:
I find it ridiculous that you don't take my illness seriously. I find it ridiculous that you don't take this game seriously. Don't sign up/replace if you are sick, and won't be able to post.
Dude, chill. He probably didn't know he was going to get sick when he signed up as a replacement.
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Sorry I don't really have time to talk right now, it's Saturday night, just wanted to say I was roleblocked last night.
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Jackal, stop it with the OMGUS, he's right in that clues do point to you.
Could it be possible that one of the modkills, RoL, or OriginalName was the SK, so the SK is dead already? I think next night cycle we should census the number of SKs left in the game, it would be great if we managed to nail him this early.
I'm dropping a vote on Jackal for now, he's not posting constructively + clues point to him. I'm going to throw up some analysis later, but it would be amazing if it wasn't just me + bum + Kav doing the huge analysis posts...
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People also seem to have missed this, but I was roleblocked last night.
This means mafia definitely sent something in, at least. What seems more likely to me is this scenario:
NIGHT 1: Mafia starts out with a KP of 2. SK has a KP of 1. 3 hits are sent in, 1 is blocked.
NIGHT 2: SK was lynched, part of the mass modkill, or didn't send in his hit. Mafia sends in 2 hits, 1 is blocked. This means somebody still has to post saying "yo I took a hit last night"
Does this make sense, or am I thinking about it wrong?
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On January 31 2011 04:08 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 03:51 CubEdIn wrote:On January 31 2011 03:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On January 31 2011 03:28 CubEdIn wrote:
That is, of course, if there were 2 SKs, since it's pretty clear that someone did not send in actions.
However, actions can also be mason/vig/protect/dt/etc. Yes, but those roles aren't compelled to kill anyone, and don't have clues left behind them, implying SK, see what I wrote two posts back. Yes, but only Mafia can role-block people, and BrownBear claimed he got RBed. Which means that the mafia DID send in their night hits. It's unlikely that they didn't. I mean, you'd have to have all 5 people offline, otherwise mods would've PMed them or something. And why would BrownBear claim RB? a) he is mafia and trying to confuse the town by putting himself on the radar b) he actually got RBed, which means mafia did send in their actions. You are right about the clues part, but I dunno, maybe Node/LSB decided to put clues about SK BECAUSE he didn't send in night kill. Or maybe they are joking? a) is a distinct possibility. He has 2 posts during night. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=7768796http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=7772232Both several hours before deadline. I'm not pushing it but it is a very real possibility. If mafia were all afk it would make a great amount of sense for one of them to claim RB during the night. It also took him a while to post that he was. A convenient bandwagon showed up before mafia could finish comparing notes?????
Wait, so if I am following your logic, I am scum because I didn't post last night?
And I posted it once, it was ignored, and then I posted it again. Here:
On January 30 2011 13:02 BrownBear wrote:
Sorry I don't really have time to talk right now, it's Saturday night, just wanted to say I was roleblocked last night.
This was posted the first time I signed on and saw the night actions. Then I noticed nobody was really discussing it apart from Coag going "LOL STEELERS LOL" (actually thats probably why it was ignored. Coag, just go let yourself get modkilled already, you're worse than useless). So I posted it again:
On January 31 2011 03:13 BrownBear wrote:
People also seem to have missed this, but I was roleblocked last night.
This means mafia definitely sent something in, at least. What seems more likely to me is this scenario:
NIGHT 1: Mafia starts out with a KP of 2. SK has a KP of 1. 3 hits are sent in, 1 is blocked.
NIGHT 2: SK was lynched, part of the mass modkill, or didn't send in his hit. Mafia sends in 2 hits, 1 is blocked. This means somebody still has to post saying "yo I took a hit last night"
Does this make sense, or am I thinking about it wrong?
My logic about the scenario was wrong, but the fact that I was roleblocked remains true.
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On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.
There's a pretty big issue with that, and that's that it's wasting a vig hit + possibly the power of census on the CHANCE that we nail 2 scum. Furthermore, if he doesn't die, we wasted a vig hit and now we don't know if one of them is scum or neither is scum, we just know that at least one of them isn't scum.
Ballsy plan, but I would vote against it.
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Oh christ yes we need to stop thinking about clues. They almost always end up with mafia gently encouraging town to chase red herrings anyway.
Actually, as part of the behavioral analysis, it would be fun to go back and see if I can see any people that were trying to gently encourage the steelers clue. I'll do it tomorrow though, for right now I gotta sleep.
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On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote:
Well, before things get out of hand, hold this open can of worms for me.
I am a detective
Night 1: kitaman27 is Medic
Night 2: Beneather is Vanilla Town
Night 3: LunarDestiny is [black]Serial Killer[/black] What the hell is this shit?
Life's a bitch, ain't it.
On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote:
Analyze the meaning of this dt claim and ask yourself would a town aligned player do this claim.
If Bumatlarge is telling the truth:
Because killing you = 1 less death every night? Come on.
On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote:
-The final push for this dt claim is detecting that I am SK. But why would a town want to expose the SK. Mafia wouldn't choose to hit this presumed SK and target other town.
Meanwhile, you just get to keep killing us.
On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote:
-If Bumatlarge just want to lynch me, he could just have said that Lunar is SK or Mafia (don't know why he chose the former unless he is mafia and don't want lynching me to affect the presumed mafia count=5). Then the other two pieces of information is useless. What good would exposing the medic do? Nothing except for sparing him as lynch. As of now, claiming that Beneather is vanilla town is pointless since we are not lynching because of his bodyguard status.
Medic is dead, thank you, try again. Also, it stops us from even discussing Beneather, so we don't waste our time chatting about him.
On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote:
After Deconduo's death, only 1 of the 2 dog profile left is Beneather. Since dog meat is very likely to be a clue. He is trying to protect Beneather.
Or the dog meat is a red herring. Or a number of other things. Yes, it's possible, but unlikely.
On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote:
The reason for Kitaman is medic is rolefishing. What he want Kitaman to do? Claim medic?
He can't talk, because he FUCKING DIED LAST NIGHT.
On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote:
I ask people to read his dt claim carefully and think of the motive for his claim (is it pro-town or anti-town).
I'm looking into it and reading the best thing that's happened to us all game.
So, here's what I think we should do with this nugget of information. And yes, it does account for the fact that bum could be scum fucking with us.
1) We know there are 3 KP total in the game. 5 mafia means most likely 2 mafia KP. Therefore, there should only be 1 SK in the game since 1 SK = 1 KP, and 2 SK would = 2 SK would = either people have been getting protected and not telling us, or mafia has 1 KP split between 5 people (HIGHLY unlikely)
2) Therefore, we lynch LD today. He's obviously not going to be down with this plan and will likely stir a bunch of shit up. This doesn't mean we stop talking, we should analyze other people/think about our next move from here, but we lynch him today.
3) Tonight, Kav will census the number of SKs in the town. He's guaranteed to survive due to bodyguards still being alive.
4) If the SK count returns 0, we know bum was telling the truth. If it returns 1, bum is most likely lying. If it returns 2, bum is DEFINITELY lying and also insane. 1 means we should probably still lynch bum.
So either way, we net a scum kill, either SK or mafia. Sounds like a win-win situation to me.
Now, as a disclaimer, I'm high as shit right now, so I'm not gonna try and analyze. That said, let's get some analysis going ASAP. Just because our lynch is planned for today doesn't mean we should get complacent. See what happened last time we tried that?
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On February 02 2011 14:08 Kavdragon wrote:
Uh...Really guys? Look, LunarDestiny has been one of the biggest assets to the town. Beneather had looked really freaking scummy, and has clues agianst him. (If he's GF, why the hell would the mafia send him as their hitman? Bad logic). Kitaman is dead, and can't tell us anything.
Firstly, Divinek: D3 was SK in Pokemafia and he cooperated with town. Scared the crap out of us mafia at the time. So yes, SK's CAN work with the town. It's in their best interest to work with whoever is losing.
Secondly, Are we going to lynch one of the most active and actually helpful players this game?
REGARDLESS of whether he is SK or not, he CAN be an asset to the town. As such we should NOT autovote him.
That being said, I'm not yet convinced that Bum is actually a DT.
This is all true, but the way to confirm bum as DT is to lynch LD, and I really think 1 less KP is worth having 1 less active player. Especially since now that he might be scum, it colors everything he says as potentially misleading, which is bad.
To blindly trust in bum's DT claim is bad, but to blindly trust that everything LD has said is in town's best interests is also bad. The best course of action is to figure out who's telling the truth and who's a liar.
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EBWOP: On top of what I said, you can't deny LD's defense of himself was a) kneejerk and b) pretty weak and full of holes (such as the whole not-realizing-kita-was-dead thing).
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So a guy is called out by someone who has claimed detective and rolechecked tem (which should be taken extremely seriously). Then he's like "LOL, LOOK, CLUES" and all of the sudden you all are like "wow, dude, great job! You're useful, we should ignore you and your obvious scumtitude and talk about these clues!"
LSB was right. You all really are sheeple.
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On February 03 2011 01:43 darmousseh wrote:
I see no reason to kill LD yet. If he is an SK then it is his best interest to make sure the game is balanced and doesn't sway too much to one side. At this point in the game it seems that the SK has very little choice but to help us townies if he wants to have a shot at winning. LD can act as a mini vig for us and if he goes against what town asks him to do (such as killing the wrong person) then we lynch him the next day.
My proposal:
Let LD live for today and ask him to hit someone for us.
Who to lynch? So far i'm leaning towards brownbear due to the clues. I said I would vote jackal58 today, but no one seems to be blaming him (mostly it seems due to the lack of steel-ers clues).
I still get the feeling that there is a massive conspiracy going on.
Ok, there are several things wrong with this post.
1) You're not the only person who's come up with this idea, and to be fair, it's actually not unreasonable. I'm not saying you're an idiot for thinking it, but I'm saying I really don't feel comfortable placing trust in a guy who knows he's fucked either way. Let's assume LD is 100% confirmed SK for the sake of your scenario. Either LD dies today via lynch or he dies in a few days via lynch. It's a lose-lose situation for him, so what on earth does he gain by helping town? I think it's far more likely he just goes for whoever screwed him over. That's bum. And regardless of the people saying "LOL bum probably scum LOL", he's actually most likely to be telling the truth. How would mafia have found an SK, really good secret analysis? They don't have a rolecheck.
2) Lynching LD helps us confirm 2 townies or 2 scum, as Cubed said. If bum is telling the truth, we know a couple things: Beneather is town, so kav is safe as long as beneather is protected, and bum is DT, and can continue to help us. All of a sudden, we have a DT who can check people as long as medics continue to protect him, we have a confirmed town bodyguard, mason can recruit either to the circle... we go from a kind of shitty position to an actually kind of decent one.
On the flip side, what if bum is scum. Then he exposed a) himself and b) his scum buddy beneather to lynch LD. Even if LD is blue, we're trading 2 scum for a blue. That's an amazing trade.
3) Remember what happened last time we lynched solely based on clues? Or, actually, I should say you guys, because I had nothing to do with that ridiculous Nemesis Bandwagon-O'-Idiocy. Actually, I haven't really looked at the "clues" against me, so let's take a look at them.
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Ok, so first things first, I want you all to consider the source. It's LunarDestiny, and he posted this very soon after I called to lynch him. For the noobs among us, accusing your accuser is called an OMGUS, or an Oh My God U Suck, and it's almost universally considered to be bad town play. However, scum players can actually use it to their advantage to get town to run in circles/chase it's own tail. This is a desperation defense by LD, and a pretty weak one at that.
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On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote:Did town disregard clues completely? BrownBear-Name (brownbear) -Profile pic (instrument, laughing) I did point out word matching is bad, but recurring clues needed to be pointed out.
Not a real great start, prefacing this with "well, I know these are kind of shitty, but..."
On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote:Day 1 Show nested quote +As the host brought around the drinks, as the the crowd crescendos with laughter, as the band broke out into another song... I felt something was wrong. Did the lights in the ceiling just black out? Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat?
So this seems to be touching on the fact that I'm playing a ukelele in my profile. Ok, cool, I can't deny that I am. The problem is, I'm not the only one. Hell, you're incriminating everyone who has a song in their profile in addition to me. Not really the most narrowed-down field you got there.
On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote:Day 2 Show nested quote +The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. This slightly touch on his name BrownBear.
I'm not even going to entertain this one except to say that it's the worst connection since Steel-ers.
On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote:Day 3 Show nested quote +He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked.
Nevermind, this is the worst connection since Steel-ers.
On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote:Day 4 Show nested quote +And laughing and singing the masked man ran along
And laughing and singing he shot Kitaman
And laughing and singing he ran along Laughing and singing...
And now we actually have one that could be reasonable, except it still runs into the same problem of you kind of tunnel-visioned me as the only person with a music or singing related profile.
So to reiterate what I think the best course of action is:
1: Lynch LD
2: Kav checks number of SKs
3: Based on that info we lynch or don't lynch bum and beneather.
It's really the only logical course of action, and I can't understand why this is so difficult for people to grasp.
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On February 03 2011 04:54 CubEdIn wrote:@BrownBear: I agree with most of what you said except for this: Show nested quote +1: Lynch LD
2: Kav checks number of SKs
3: Based on that info we lynch or don't lynch bum and beneather. Why check the number of SKs? I get the logic of it, since we're not lynching Mafia, census for red will stay @ 5, but we should easily be able to identify if SK died based on kill power alone, during the night, no? Wouldn't it be better to check number of DTs or something? Maybe it flips 0 and then we're sure bum is scum. The reason I'm saying this is because I believe that LD is SK, but I don't trust bum is blue. So SK number will probably return 0, but that won't give us information on bum and beneather.
Given it's already night 4, the chance of a vigi trying to hit someone is pretty high. Also, what if a medic saves someone? What if mafia chooses not to hit anyone to confuse the town? What if mafia hits a vet? There are so many variables that go into how many deaths there are per night that just counting the deaths can neither confirm nor deny anyone.
DT checking could also still flip 1 with bum not being a DT, maybe there's another out there. That's why in my opinion, the safest route is for Kav to check number of SKs tonight.
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Beneather depends on what happens to bum. If bum does turn out to be scum, that's a pretty damning implication on Beneather.
However, and this is probably WIFOM, but given beneather's status as a BG, do you think a scum bum might have fakeclaimed and said Beneather was town to throw suspicion on him? Like, say this happened:
bum is scum, beneather is town. bum fakeclaims, knowing he'll get caught. He claims beneather is town, then when he gets outed as red, it makes beneather look red too. In fact, we could take it further. What if beneather is town, and it's LunarDestiny who's the scum? That way, when bum gets found out, not only does a BG get lynched, but LD looks clean in the town's eyes.
Obviously, that's huge WIFOM. But it's something to think about.
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EPT
