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On December 20 2010 09:50 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2010 08:12 BrownBear wrote:On December 20 2010 07:24 Kavdragon wrote:Ok, to make sure we are all on the same page, here's the situation: We are currently at 8/5/1. By lynch, or M2's night kill, we must kill two mafia two days in a row to survive. Here is my bubble, let me know if I did anything wrong. (http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5751/mafiaendgame.jpg if you want to see it un-resized, and not blurry) ![[image loading]](http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/5751/mafiaendgame.jpg) This means that we cannot lynch M2. (For at least two nights, anyways) On December 20 2010 05:40 BrownBear wrote:
##Vote: DCLXVI
##Vote: d3_crescentia
##Vote: Double Lynch
You appear to have slipped sir. Vote Brownbear. I waited to post this to see if anyone would vote D3, Brownbear didn't disappoint. Also, this may or may not make DCLXVI less suspicious. You decide. I disagree with you, but then, I'm biased against town alliances w/ 3rd parties. They never work out well for anyone. Personally, my view is that if we know who MewTwo is, we should lynch him. End of story. You dissagree with what? Look at the possible outcomes. Now compare that with these outcomes, assuming that we lynch D3: ![[image loading]](http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/1719/mafiaendgame2.jpg) Brownbear's "Don't work with third parties" policy is handing his mafia a win. I would agree that normally third parties shouldn't be allied with, but we kinda screwed up earlier in the game, and we are in a tight spot now. We have to work with D3, or we lower our chances of survival by a good deal. Lynch Redbear.
Greenbear, fool. Have you forgotten DTA already?
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On December 20 2010 05:51 Gabriel wrote:
What do you want me to explain?
* Dinmsab has done almost no effort to play this game. If you read his posts here they fit a lot more in BCs mafia, when he was townie he just posted one liners.
* I was trying to get an idea from the claimed MH. Since he had votes he could have asked to get him lynched as Shockeyy was getting lynched anyways and i have been in the spotlight all game long. Maybe im just that sicko but if they give me a MH someday im going to put my bombs and ask town to lynch me.
Now that reread Dinmsabs posting from you im almost sure he is mafia. Just read his posts here: do they look like oneliners? The content he posts here is almost the same as BCs mafia (where he was mafia), trying to look participative (he made up a list or something about the first voters).
Conclusion: Probably town: As mafia he put some effort into his posts.???
Not that i want to go against you but just by looking at his posting here they dont look like one-liners at all. I mean if we are going to compare his activity here to BCs or Incognitos posting id say they look a lot more like the first.
Rather than mafia, you should see me more as a confused townie who does not know who to believe. In previous games there were usually very clear factions to support, this game everyone feels so detached and lynching just feels so random. The moment you get on a bad side of an argument you get lynched so I'm being very wary on what i'm going to say. If there is convincing evidence on someone and you need votes then i'll give you my vote as a responsible townie.
Regarding gabe, he really hates me and will try to make up shit to make me look bad. The reason why I might look slightly suspicious and why i'm being talked about is because i don't post often and Gabe brings my name up too often; That's about it.
So yeah Gabe, let' the town move on to more serious discussions.
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On December 20 2010 08:29 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2010 08:22 LSB wrote:On December 20 2010 08:12 BrownBear wrote:On December 20 2010 07:24 Kavdragon wrote:Ok, to make sure we are all on the same page, here's the situation: We are currently at 8/5/1. By lynch, or M2's night kill, we must kill two mafia two days in a row to survive. Here is my bubble, let me know if I did anything wrong. (http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5751/mafiaendgame.jpg if you want to see it un-resized, and not blurry) This means that we cannot lynch M2. (For at least two nights, anyways) On December 20 2010 05:40 BrownBear wrote:
##Vote: DCLXVI
##Vote: d3_crescentia
##Vote: Double Lynch
You appear to have slipped sir. Vote Brownbear. I waited to post this to see if anyone would vote D3, Brownbear didn't disappoint. Also, this may or may not make DCLXVI less suspicious. You decide. I disagree with you, but then, I'm biased against town alliances w/ 3rd parties. They never work out well for anyone. Personally, my view is that if we know who MewTwo is, we should lynch him. End of story. What do you think we should do today if we don't work with MewTwo then? Also, how will the numbers look like? Mewtwo has failed to net us a single TR kill so far. I highly doubt that he will. Lets say we lynch a TR and Mewtwo today. That will put us, after night kills, at 7 to 4. No. After night kills we will be at 6 to 4.Now, let's say we lynch 2 TRs today, That's 2 kills from them, then a kill from Mewtwo which will put us at either 7 to 3 or 6 to 3. However, that's relying on Mewtwo to actually hit a TR - something I highly doubt will happen. Again, no. If we lynch two TR today, then it's 8/3/1. After night kills it's 6/2/1 or 5/3/1. Or how about 1 TR, 1 Town. We have 8 town to 4 TR and mewtwo left, that's 4 nightkills, unless we get HUGELY lucky, we could be put in a 4-4 situation where we'd be absolutely fucked. I think you are under the assumption that there are 9 town. There are 8. In the case of lynching 1TR and 1 Town, we wold be looking at 7 to 4. After night kills, 5 to 4 or 6 to 3. That situation would depend on D3's ability to snipe a mafia. We're basically in LYLO at this point, we need to kill off the anti-town players we know. And we know d3 is anti-town.
D3 is working with us for now. I agree that he needs to go eventually, but if we assume him to be hostile, then we can assume that we've lost as well.
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You guys make it sound like I'm some sort of bad puppy.
The more I think about it the more I'm convinced Shockeyy was a sacrifice made by the mafia. Shockeyy himself gave us no leads anywhere, and if I recall no one really stepped up to defend him. Without the modkills yesterday we could've been at 12/5/1, which means you could have afforded to lynch me and some other dude that the mafia would have drawn you to, and then hopefully take the game at 8/5. But then there were the modkills, so things have changed.
I think that Shockeyy's vote list has to contain a few mafia, though it's quite possible they just split their vote between our three candidates yesterday. Note that Oceanic and dinmsab both had single votes for themselves/Gabriel respectively. Quite frankly I'm more than willing to buy that they're town - or at least, put our focus elsewhere for the time being. Did Shockeyy's death give anyone any more credibility? LSB's voted Shockeyy on Day 2, so I am thinking that should clear him as town-ish. It leaves Gabriel, deconduo, KtheZ, GGQ and Infundibulum as targets for analysis.
This would make Node most likely to be mafia, should the mafia have actually split their votes. The Node/DCLXVI conversation points to Node being more likely mafia as well. Unfortunately as mentioned I'm not sure that mafia need to risk another player at this point in time. If he dies blue today we may need to reconsider DCLXVI for tonight.
We have DCLXVI, Kavdragon, Eiii, Brownbear and Shockeyy on me yesterday. Shockeyy was scum as we found out; Kavdragon is likely town and Eiii is questionable. DCLXVI's fate is tied with Node's in my view.
As for Brownbear, if he was town and so vehemently believed that an alliance would be unfruitful, he should have been pushing for my lynch harder yesterday, because the town will be in LYLO no matter what happens to me today.
Again, this is dependent on the logic of Shockeyy being sacrificed, because I think he could have easily kept silent and let the town flounder a little longer without a target.
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On December 20 2010 13:29 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2010 08:29 BrownBear wrote:On December 20 2010 08:22 LSB wrote:On December 20 2010 08:12 BrownBear wrote:On December 20 2010 07:24 Kavdragon wrote:Ok, to make sure we are all on the same page, here's the situation: We are currently at 8/5/1. By lynch, or M2's night kill, we must kill two mafia two days in a row to survive. Here is my bubble, let me know if I did anything wrong. (http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5751/mafiaendgame.jpg if you want to see it un-resized, and not blurry) This means that we cannot lynch M2. (For at least two nights, anyways) On December 20 2010 05:40 BrownBear wrote:
##Vote: DCLXVI
##Vote: d3_crescentia
##Vote: Double Lynch
You appear to have slipped sir. Vote Brownbear. I waited to post this to see if anyone would vote D3, Brownbear didn't disappoint. Also, this may or may not make DCLXVI less suspicious. You decide. I disagree with you, but then, I'm biased against town alliances w/ 3rd parties. They never work out well for anyone. Personally, my view is that if we know who MewTwo is, we should lynch him. End of story. What do you think we should do today if we don't work with MewTwo then? Also, how will the numbers look like? Mewtwo has failed to net us a single TR kill so far. I highly doubt that he will. Lets say we lynch a TR and Mewtwo today. That will put us, after night kills, at 7 to 4. No. After night kills we will be at 6 to 4.Now, let's say we lynch 2 TRs today, That's 2 kills from them, then a kill from Mewtwo which will put us at either 7 to 3 or 6 to 3. However, that's relying on Mewtwo to actually hit a TR - something I highly doubt will happen. Again, no. If we lynch two TR today, then it's 8/3/1. After night kills it's 6/2/1 or 5/3/1. Or how about 1 TR, 1 Town. We have 8 town to 4 TR and mewtwo left, that's 4 nightkills, unless we get HUGELY lucky, we could be put in a 4-4 situation where we'd be absolutely fucked. I think you are under the assumption that there are 9 town. There are 8. In the case of lynching 1TR and 1 Town, we wold be looking at 7 to 4. After night kills, 5 to 4 or 6 to 3. That situation would depend on D3's ability to snipe a mafia. We're basically in LYLO at this point, we need to kill off the anti-town players we know. And we know d3 is anti-town. D3 is working with us for now. I agree that he needs to go eventually, but if we assume him to be hostile, then we can assume that we've lost as well.
Your math is fail, I'm afraid. Lynch one TR, that drops them to 4, which drops their KP to 2. Thus, we will have one more town then your projections.
Honestly, I don't know how you could have missed that, unless you were deliberately trying to mislead town.
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On December 20 2010 14:46 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2010 13:29 Kavdragon wrote:On December 20 2010 08:29 BrownBear wrote:On December 20 2010 08:22 LSB wrote:On December 20 2010 08:12 BrownBear wrote:On December 20 2010 07:24 Kavdragon wrote:Ok, to make sure we are all on the same page, here's the situation: We are currently at 8/5/1. By lynch, or M2's night kill, we must kill two mafia two days in a row to survive. Here is my bubble, let me know if I did anything wrong. (http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5751/mafiaendgame.jpg if you want to see it un-resized, and not blurry) This means that we cannot lynch M2. (For at least two nights, anyways) On December 20 2010 05:40 BrownBear wrote:
##Vote: DCLXVI
##Vote: d3_crescentia
##Vote: Double Lynch
You appear to have slipped sir. Vote Brownbear. I waited to post this to see if anyone would vote D3, Brownbear didn't disappoint. Also, this may or may not make DCLXVI less suspicious. You decide. I disagree with you, but then, I'm biased against town alliances w/ 3rd parties. They never work out well for anyone. Personally, my view is that if we know who MewTwo is, we should lynch him. End of story. What do you think we should do today if we don't work with MewTwo then? Also, how will the numbers look like? Mewtwo has failed to net us a single TR kill so far. I highly doubt that he will. Lets say we lynch a TR and Mewtwo today. That will put us, after night kills, at 7 to 4. No. After night kills we will be at 6 to 4.Now, let's say we lynch 2 TRs today, That's 2 kills from them, then a kill from Mewtwo which will put us at either 7 to 3 or 6 to 3. However, that's relying on Mewtwo to actually hit a TR - something I highly doubt will happen. Again, no. If we lynch two TR today, then it's 8/3/1. After night kills it's 6/2/1 or 5/3/1. Or how about 1 TR, 1 Town. We have 8 town to 4 TR and mewtwo left, that's 4 nightkills, unless we get HUGELY lucky, we could be put in a 4-4 situation where we'd be absolutely fucked. I think you are under the assumption that there are 9 town. There are 8. In the case of lynching 1TR and 1 Town, we wold be looking at 7 to 4. After night kills, 5 to 4 or 6 to 3. That situation would depend on D3's ability to snipe a mafia. We're basically in LYLO at this point, we need to kill off the anti-town players we know. And we know d3 is anti-town. D3 is working with us for now. I agree that he needs to go eventually, but if we assume him to be hostile, then we can assume that we've lost as well. Your math is fail, I'm afraid. Lynch one TR, that drops them to 4, which drops their KP to 2. Thus, we will have one more town then your projections. Honestly, I don't know how you could have missed that, unless you were deliberately trying to mislead town.
What?
8 town 5 TR 1 mewtwo.
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That makes it 6/4/0 if we lynch 1TR/1M2. Are YOU trying to mislead town?
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Putting my votes on Brownbear and dinmsab for now, both for being inactive and not really contributing anything. (Yes, I know I have been inactive as well but I can't really help it.)
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On December 20 2010 21:08 Oceanic wrote:
Putting my votes on Brownbear and dinmsab for now, both for being inactive and not really contributing anything. (Yes, I know I have been inactive as well but I can't really help it.)
With your reasoning, go vote for Node then instead of me. I've contributed a ton more than him and the only reason why i'm getting all the votes is because Gabriel is a douche and mentions my name every 5 secs without having any solid reasoning. You understand at this point a wrong lynch could mean the game for townies, if you actually care about that then change your vote. If however you refuse, and I get lynched.. remember the one who started the bandwagon against me.
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What have you contributed dinmsab?
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On December 20 2010 22:54 LSB wrote:
What have you contributed dinmsab?
I don't cause any confusion to this game as much as Gabe does, I've followed the game closely and i reply to any questions directed to me as a responsible townie. I believe i'm not a shady character. Like it or not, you'll need all the townie votes you can get to win this game. Provide me with solid proof or reasoning and I will provide you with my vote.
My actions, my voting patterns, and obviously how I act just proofs how townie I am. Lynching me because i seem inactive is bad idea at this stage of the game.
I know it doesn't sound like much, but the bottom line is.. I'm not mafia, so don't waste your votes on me. I'm a townie and I fucking want to win this game.
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On December 20 2010 15:01 d3_crescentia wrote:
That makes it 6/4/0 if we lynch 1TR/1M2. Are YOU trying to mislead town?
I count 9 Pokealliance remaining, so unless I'm missing something huge...
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Both Brownbear and dinmsab have been out of sync with what the town has been doing. And now finally on this day they show up and suddenly try to defend themselves.
I have no idea what Brownbear is doing. His proposal to kill the third party is incredibly scummy.
On December 20 2010 14:38 d3_crescentia wrote:
You guys make it sound like I'm some sort of bad puppy.
The more I think about it the more I'm convinced Shockeyy was a sacrifice made by the mafia. Shockeyy himself gave us no leads anywhere, and if I recall no one really stepped up to defend him. Without the modkills yesterday we could've been at 12/5/1, which means you could have afforded to lynch me and some other dude that the mafia would have drawn you to, and then hopefully take the game at 8/5. But then there were the modkills, so things have changed.
I think that Shockeyy's vote list has to contain a few mafia, though it's quite possible they just split their vote between our three candidates yesterday. Note that Oceanic and dinmsab both had single votes for themselves/Gabriel respectively. Quite frankly I'm more than willing to buy that they're town - or at least, put our focus elsewhere for the time being. Did Shockeyy's death give anyone any more credibility? LSB's voted Shockeyy on Day 2, so I am thinking that should clear him as town-ish. It leaves Gabriel, deconduo, KtheZ, GGQ and Infundibulum as targets for analysis.
This would make Node most likely to be mafia, should the mafia have actually split their votes. The Node/DCLXVI conversation points to Node being more likely mafia as well. Unfortunately as mentioned I'm not sure that mafia need to risk another player at this point in time. If he dies blue today we may need to reconsider DCLXVI for tonight.
We have DCLXVI, Kavdragon, Eiii, Brownbear and Shockeyy on me yesterday. Shockeyy was scum as we found out; Kavdragon is likely town and Eiii is questionable. DCLXVI's fate is tied with Node's in my view.
As for Brownbear, if he was town and so vehemently believed that an alliance would be unfruitful, he should have been pushing for my lynch harder yesterday, because the town will be in LYLO no matter what happens to me today.
Again, this is dependent on the logic of Shockeyy being sacrificed, because I think he could have easily kept silent and let the town flounder a little longer without a target.
I agree that the mafia may have bused Shockeyy... however, I think its because DCLXVI was also scum so the mafia had no choice at all.
I am left unsatisfied with DCLXVI's response, so I will be voting for him. In addition, I want to shy away from lynching dinmsab, especially since how fast the lynch was formed.
So I'm voting for DCLXVI and Brownbear.
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Wait... why is Node getting lynched?
In this setup there should be at least two DTs, and since no one has counterclaimed, isn't Node our second DT?
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On December 21 2010 03:21 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2010 15:01 d3_crescentia wrote:
That makes it 6/4/0 if we lynch 1TR/1M2. Are YOU trying to mislead town? I count 9 Pokealliance remaining, so unless I'm missing something huge...
The frontpage isn't correct. If there are only 14 players left with 5 being mafia and 1 being me, how can we have 9?
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D3, why are you pushing for the Node lynch?
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Day isn't over for a few hours. Please vote if you haven't already.
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On December 21 2010 10:24 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Day isn't over for a few hours. Please vote if you haven't already.
Oh wow LSB, way to scare me.
I think I'll vote DCLXVII and brownbear.
I agree with the comments of other people that brownbear has been doing some scummy play.
I'm not exactly sure why people are voting the person who claimed to be detective. We have conflicting roleclaims from both node and DCL, but I think voting for the hatter is safer than voting for the DT (Who in fact has had no person counterclaim).
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Seeing as nobody else has claimed Alakazam, it'd be pretty great if someone could switch their vote off me so I don't get lynched. I believe after my vote I'm tied with dinmsab, and IIRC the first player to the high number of votes (me) gets lynched.
I promise that if I don't get lynched I'll die tonight, just to satisfy you guys. <3
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EPT
