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On October 05 2010 10:55 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Anyway, no. DT if you find a red bloke, I want you to build an argument for why he is mafia. Tell us what he is/is not doing that is/is not helping to town. I want you to lay into him. Be relentless. Don't pull no fucking punches. If his mama's a tramp, I want you to let us know. Shiaaaaaaat.
So ignore this kid's advice. It's weak sauce. -___-
Quiet people often get sniped by mafia toooooo. (Unless Radfield/Ace/L are playing)
Eh...Kinda got the Village idiot post. It was pretty smart thinking with Village Idiot/Mafia win....So we do gotta be careful, cuz if village idiot is down to last 3 "Hai I'm VI, lynch me!!" Mafia just have to wait for him to vote for himself. Lol.
I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie.
I'm going to assume that last part was directed to me. This kind of situation was common on the site I used to go on and made the Village Idiot all that more dangerous. This reinforces the reasoning that I had for saving the vig shot until we're sure that we've got either the idiot or the GF.
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I'm in favor of voting inactives. It forces people to talk, leading to more communication. As mentioned before, communication is a step forward in helping us to determine scum.
I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie.
As for the DTs, I agree with most of this. A DT that plays the role of a proactive townie will be diffused amongst the crowd, instead of being a sitting duck to the mafia's quiet-sniping tendencies.
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I'm here. I just started my first day of work, so I don't know if I'll be able to be as active as I have in the past. Haven't gotten to read the thread yet, as I just worked a twelve hour day, but I promise I'll make an informed post tomorrow.
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On October 05 2010 08:31 ghrur wrote:
Speaking of lynching, do we have to accuse before we can vote on the person? Or can we just type ##vote xxxxxxx?
If we don't need to accuse, should we do so anyway in the thread to start a discussion?
Also, I support the idea of non-random lynching. Random lynching has a greater chance of hitting blue or green instead of red. Random lynching also doesn't promote discussion which means there's less of a posting trail for later in the game.
For non-random lynching, I suggest lynching a suspicious active instead of an inactive. Inactives could be simply bored by the Day1 stuff, but become really useful later. An example would be the recent RAM game where Xelin was inactive in the beginning, but found a mafia member on his first accusation.
You technically can vote without any reason, but I always accuse along with vote. Voting without any analysis is pretty scummy in my book. Right now, I have some hunches on whos mafia, but I'm gonna hold back til there are more posts to work with. So, I'm probably going to vote for an inactive, unless something major happens.
On October 05 2010 09:29 SouthRawrea wrote:
This game:
There are several differences in this setup than regular mafia games in case you can't be bothered to read the role descriptions.
1) Detective must wait until Night 2 for investigation which is frankly not helpful as it is 1 less report overall per detective.
2) Vigilante gets their shot or bat back if they overlap with mafia. Not a huge deal as an overlap isn't that likely.
3) Godfather can fake Village Idiot. Frankly as some have stated before this may be a bit OP and is a very good reason for Vigilante to save their bat.
4) Roleblocker now cannot block someone twice in a row which make DT claiming a little more viable especially once mafia loses a KP.
5) Mafia can practically save a KP for the next day while the poisoner is still alive.
Three huge things to watch out for
1) Like stated earlier, the Vigilante must not shoot until we get a Village Idiot report as it is the only way of safely killing a potential Village Idiot/Godfather as town.
2) Mafia can continuously use poison from any point in the game and have on of their players claim hit Veteran. The mafia will then be able to unleash 3 NK at any one night from that point onwards while having 1 NK the night before the claim and 2 NK for every night in between. This can be dangerous if town is too trusting of the hit claim and/or forgets about the 3 NK.
Ex: Night 2 : 1 poison 1 shot
Day 2: 1 death, mafia claims hit
Night 3: 1 poison 1 shot
Day 3: 2 deaths
Night 4 1 poison 1 shot
Day 4: 2 deaths
Night 5: 2 shot
Day 5: 3 deaths
3) Finally in a Lylo situation with Village idiot still alive, mafia can have a joint-win with the Village Idiot by lynching him. This will result in the day ending with both the Village Idiot and the Mafia's win requirements being fulfilled. (VI gets lynched and mafia # = town #)
Detectives seem to have less of a role in this game. They can't make town circles and they lose a turn of finding red. Protactinium stated that detectives should shout out once they find a red. I think I agree with this as 1) there is a huge lynch target that day and 2) medics can protect the dectective, so effectively, we have a "town circle" without the need of PMs.
Vilgilante hits that overlap with mafia would probably indicate that the person getting hit is acting like the VI, since lynching the VI leads to both the town and the mafia loss. I don't know how this helps, but thats my thought.
Godfather as VI doesn't make much sense to me, just because there are vigilantes in the game (we should probably assume this as BB and Artanis making a game without vigilantes in games with a VI is pretty unlikely... that really would be OP). I think the biggest concern is if Godfather claims bulletproof. Vig wouldn't want to waste their hit trying to see if the claim is true because of the possibility of a VI, and a bulletproof is beneficial to the town and is an unlikely lynch target because the mafia can't kill (except poison).
Aye! I forgot about roleblockers. So above, if DT claims a red, its pretty much assured that mafia will roleblock the DT. I've personally never seen roleblockers do anything that turned the tide of the game, so I'm not exactly sure how important this is. One thing to note is that roleblockers can get rid of the bulletproof vest, so if you are one, dont claim in the thread, unless you get shot. (Just realized this kinda contridicts what I said before where godfather would claim bulletproof... but if godfather claims bulletproof in thread, its likely that a medic will try and save him)
I agree with SR. I think that its gonna be really suspicious to anyone who claims to get hit Night 1 though. Of course, claim if you really do get hit as veteran, but be prepared to defend yourself. Do we get to know who gets poisoned to death and who gets shot to death?
The VI and mafia collaboration thing only will happen late game for them to have a joint win, is that correct?
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On October 05 2010 12:12 Bill Murray wrote:
I'm here. I just started my first day of work, so I don't know if I'll be able to be as active as I have in the past. Haven't gotten to read the thread yet, as I just worked a twelve hour day, but I promise I'll make an informed post tomorrow.
Yea, uh huh. I believe it, but come on BM!
On October 05 2010 12:03 Crisis_ wrote:I'm in favor of voting inactives. It forces people to talk, leading to more communication. As mentioned before, communication is a step forward in helping us to determine scum. Show nested quote +I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie. As for the DTs, I agree with most of this. A DT that plays the role of a proactive townie will be diffused amongst the crowd, instead of being a sitting duck to the mafia's quiet-sniping tendencies.
K, I'll be voting you in a second Crisis_....
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On October 04 2010 15:13 CynanMachae wrote:
Well if random pick is chosen, how would you suggest doing it so that it's fair and objective?
And Misder, there isn't really much red hunting possible on the first day...
Discouraging hunting? And not bothering to come up with a fair RNG? Pick four to eight people have them RNG a number each 1 - 25, Average the number, Round up/down any decimal?
Found a way that's fair and almost arguably the most objective.
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I'd rather you post your suspects now Mr. Misder?
What if mafia slay you at night?
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On October 05 2010 12:47 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'd rather you post your suspects now Mr. Misder?
What if mafia slay you at night?
=/
I think I rather wait. First, my suspicions aren't really big; they could be comepletely wrong, and I don't really have strong evidence. Plus, I'm still looking at different play styles from previous games. Second, this way, the mafia doesn't know whether I'm right or wrong, so if they really are scared, they're going to have to kill me  If you guys really want, I'll post my suspicions, maybe to generate discussion or something on day 1.
Which reminds me, how do we decide which inactive to lynch?
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Village Idiot and Mafia cannot joint win.
Edit: To clarify who would win in the proposed scenario, VI's win condition trumps all others. So, in the situation posed, VI would win and mafia would lose. Likewise, if the last mafia member and the VI are double lynched simultaneously (for whatever reason), VI would win and town would lose.
On October 05 2010 08:31 ghrur wrote:
Speaking of lynching, do we have to accuse before we can vote on the person? Or can we just type ##vote xxxxxxx?
If we don't need to accuse, should we do so anyway in the thread to start a discussion?
This is a standard game, so feel free to just vote in the voting thread. However, be advised that the minimum requirement to avoid modkill is one post in the main thread, as well as a vote in the voting thread, so you can't just vote and then wait for the day to end.
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On October 05 2010 12:39 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 12:12 Bill Murray wrote:
I'm here. I just started my first day of work, so I don't know if I'll be able to be as active as I have in the past. Haven't gotten to read the thread yet, as I just worked a twelve hour day, but I promise I'll make an informed post tomorrow. Yea, uh huh. I believe it, but come on BM! Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 12:03 Crisis_ wrote:I'm in favor of voting inactives. It forces people to talk, leading to more communication. As mentioned before, communication is a step forward in helping us to determine scum. I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie. As for the DTs, I agree with most of this. A DT that plays the role of a proactive townie will be diffused amongst the crowd, instead of being a sitting duck to the mafia's quiet-sniping tendencies. K, I'll be voting you in a second Crisis_....
How nice of you to vote for me. Glad to know that your vote will be a waste, since:
1. I am participating in active discussion to try to help town and give advice to the DT, I wouldn't be doing this if I were scum.
2. There are better candidates to be lynched, i.e. inactives.
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On October 05 2010 14:05 Crisis_ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 12:39 ~OpZ~ wrote:On October 05 2010 12:12 Bill Murray wrote:
I'm here. I just started my first day of work, so I don't know if I'll be able to be as active as I have in the past. Haven't gotten to read the thread yet, as I just worked a twelve hour day, but I promise I'll make an informed post tomorrow. Yea, uh huh. I believe it, but come on BM! On October 05 2010 12:03 Crisis_ wrote:I'm in favor of voting inactives. It forces people to talk, leading to more communication. As mentioned before, communication is a step forward in helping us to determine scum. I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie. As for the DTs, I agree with most of this. A DT that plays the role of a proactive townie will be diffused amongst the crowd, instead of being a sitting duck to the mafia's quiet-sniping tendencies. K, I'll be voting you in a second Crisis_.... How nice of you to vote for me. Glad to know that your vote will be a waste, since: 1. I am participating in active discussion to try to help town and give advice to the DT, I wouldn't be doing this if I were scum. 2. There are better candidates to be lynched, i.e. inactives.
you should probably keep in mind the vote is more likely nothing more than a place holder. However your defense is laughable.
1. I can think of alot more reasons that a mafia would want to do this than not, ie look pro town, after all the best way to look pro town is to BE pro town! Empty advice like this can't really harm you as a mafia, unless it was game breaking or something
2. It's great that you say there are people, but who are they?!!?
not saying they dont exist just, be stronger!
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On October 05 2010 14:05 Crisis_ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 12:39 ~OpZ~ wrote:On October 05 2010 12:12 Bill Murray wrote:
I'm here. I just started my first day of work, so I don't know if I'll be able to be as active as I have in the past. Haven't gotten to read the thread yet, as I just worked a twelve hour day, but I promise I'll make an informed post tomorrow. Yea, uh huh. I believe it, but come on BM! On October 05 2010 12:03 Crisis_ wrote:I'm in favor of voting inactives. It forces people to talk, leading to more communication. As mentioned before, communication is a step forward in helping us to determine scum. I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie. As for the DTs, I agree with most of this. A DT that plays the role of a proactive townie will be diffused amongst the crowd, instead of being a sitting duck to the mafia's quiet-sniping tendencies. K, I'll be voting you in a second Crisis_.... How nice of you to vote for me. Glad to know that your vote will be a waste, since: 1. I am participating in active discussion to try to help town and give advice to the DT, I wouldn't be doing this if I were scum. 2. There are better candidates to be lynched, i.e. inactives.
I would highly suggest being careful about how you analyze for the rest of the game. You're in for a full-on assault from Opz now. Shitlisted!!!
So half the town just isn't aware of the game going on right now? We need the other 12+ players to contribute...
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On October 05 2010 20:38 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 14:05 Crisis_ wrote:On October 05 2010 12:39 ~OpZ~ wrote:On October 05 2010 12:12 Bill Murray wrote:
I'm here. I just started my first day of work, so I don't know if I'll be able to be as active as I have in the past. Haven't gotten to read the thread yet, as I just worked a twelve hour day, but I promise I'll make an informed post tomorrow. Yea, uh huh. I believe it, but come on BM! On October 05 2010 12:03 Crisis_ wrote:I'm in favor of voting inactives. It forces people to talk, leading to more communication. As mentioned before, communication is a step forward in helping us to determine scum. I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie. As for the DTs, I agree with most of this. A DT that plays the role of a proactive townie will be diffused amongst the crowd, instead of being a sitting duck to the mafia's quiet-sniping tendencies. K, I'll be voting you in a second Crisis_.... How nice of you to vote for me. Glad to know that your vote will be a waste, since: 1. I am participating in active discussion to try to help town and give advice to the DT, I wouldn't be doing this if I were scum. 2. There are better candidates to be lynched, i.e. inactives. I would highly suggest being careful about how you analyze for the rest of the game. You're in for a full-on assault from Opz now. Shitlisted!!! So half the town just isn't aware of the game going on right now? We need the other 12+ players to contribute...
Shh, He's new and sarcasm isn't funny when it's at my expense.
=(
Who are these better candidates Crisis? What have you added to the discussion? Advice to the DT? DT's probably away from the game.
And Cynan...Wherefore art thou? I quoted your only post besides your /in post....Come come now....Speaketh to the DT.
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Woot no joint wins!  )))
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On October 05 2010 08:13 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Someone will always get lynched, an absolute majority is not required. The person with the most votes will die. If it is tied, the person who reached this amount of votes first will get their head chopped off.
Well damn, what a huge waste of time my analysis was ... lol.
Well, here are some other numbers to keep in mind:
a) Assuming 1 cop out of 25 people, and the worst case scenario that we don't kill a mafia in any of our lynchings, we have a minimum of 5 days (round 1: 25 ppl, r2: 22, r3: 19, r4: 16, r5: 13), and 4 nights. The cop starts out with a 10.5% chance of getting killed on the first night, night 2: 12.5%, night 3: 15%, night 4: 20%, for a cumulative random probability of 48% chance the cop dies in 4 nights. For everyone's rough estimation purposes, the chance that a cop has died increases by 10-14% per night.
b) Interestingly, if there is 1 veteran and 1 bulletproof, they each add a 48% chance that the mafia will pick one of them at least once in 4 nights, effectively adding an extra life to townies in 4 nights. This means we will likely have 14 people going into Day 5. However, it's important to note that we must have killed at least 1 mafia going into Day 6 even this happens, because if there are 11 total people and 5 mafia by then, the game is already over (Day 7 will result in 8 total people and 4 mafia due to the 2 hits at night, which is a loss).
c) Assuming a veteran/bulletproof took a bullet and the cop survives to day 5, he will only have 3 checks. He has a 20% chance of ID'ing at least 1 mafia by then, or has a max of 4 innocents amongst a crowd of 14 people (but there's a 38% chance that on one night, the cop will check someone the mafia kills)... So 38% * (5/10) + 72% * (5/11) = 47% chance of killing the mafia on Day 5 by random lynching. So basically, if the cop survives to the last day and reveals his info, we have a 67% likelihood that we will kill a mafia by Day 5.
d) One last thing -- because the cop's check doesn't start until night 2, the cop cannot auto-win until Day 7 at the earliest. By day 6, he will only have 4 checks out of 11 people (or 5 possible innocents including himself). The auto-win scenario has a 30% chance of happening.
Conclusion:
Looking over my numbers, it seems that when the days start to really get crucial is Day 5 (14 people). At that point, we must lynch 1 mafia on Day 5 and another one consecutively on Day 6 (11 people), otherwise the mafia will win. I think that's a fairly difficult task to do, so I would recommend the cop reveal himself on Day 5, and only then, since he has a 56% survival rate of living through 4 nights. But after Day 5, the odds significantly ramp up that he will die by then. (Night 5, 6, and 7 each have 20-30% chance of the cop dying each night, so his survival rate goes way down after Day 5!)
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Here is the list of people that have not posted so far, so we can get an idea of who the inactives are
1. JeeJee
2. bumatlarge
3. Bill Murray
10.SINiquity
11.XeliN
12.kane]deth[
15.infinitestory
16.cSc
20.drag_
21.CynanMachine
I did not count 1 line post with no real content. A bit less then half the people have posted by now with most of the content from a small group of people(~OpZ~,Amber[LighT].Divinek and Misder and some others) If we choose to vote inactive, we currently have quite the pool to choose from
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On October 05 2010 22:57 NukeTheBunnys wrote:
Here is the list of people that have not posted so far, so we can get an idea of who the inactives are
1. JeeJee
2. bumatlarge
3. Bill Murray
10.SINiquity
11.XeliN
12.kane]deth[
15.infinitestory
16.cSc
20.drag_
21.CynanMachine
I did not count 1 line post with no real content. A bit less then half the people have posted by now with most of the content from a small group of people(~OpZ~,Amber[LighT].Divinek and Misder and some others) If we choose to vote inactive, we currently have quite the pool to choose from
Yeah, I'm pretty concerned that we could potentially have 8 mod deaths by the end of today. (Not worried about Bill Murray and Cynan, it seems they're around and will post in time)
Also, in terms of accusations, I think we should start now. We only have 14 hours before the day ends, so we should give a few hours to accusations, a few hours to defending, a few hours to some townsperson deliberation, and a few hours to vote.
So inactives, now is the time for you guys to start speaking up. I'm going to point out JeeJee just 'cuz he's at the top of the inactive list, and I know he's around because I just checked his post history and his last post was 10 hrs ago (13:09 TL time). So speak up man.
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On October 05 2010 22:57 NukeTheBunnys wrote:
Here is the list of people that have not posted so far, so we can get an idea of who the inactives are
1. JeeJee
2. bumatlarge
3. Bill Murray
10.SINiquity
11.XeliN
12.kane]deth[
15.infinitestory
16.cSc
20.drag_
21.CynanMachine
I did not count 1 line post with no real content. A bit less then half the people have posted by now with most of the content from a small group of people(~OpZ~,Amber[LighT].Divinek and Misder and some others) If we choose to vote inactive, we currently have quite the pool to choose from
oh my god lol. I think besides just sheer probability alone there is more than likely at least one mafia member in there. Yes they are likely to be active on day1, but they are also likely to just stay above the threshold of activity to go unnoticed. When there's that many people inactive there's not much pressure to post more than that 1, 'im here post', and even then they wouldn't have to until some more of these people start posting.
SUP cynanmachine, you have the longest name so you stand out to me!
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On October 04 2010 15:13 CynanMachae wrote:
Well if random pick is chosen, how would you suggest doing it so that it's fair and objective?
And Misder, there isn't really much red hunting possible on the first day...
Is Cynan's only post thus far, so he is not completely inactive. However due to trying to convince people you cant hunt reds the first day, and trying to stay below the radar by posting the bare minimum, I am accusing him of being Mafia.
Defend yourself or get lynched.
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On October 05 2010 22:57 NukeTheBunnys wrote:
Here is the list of people that have not posted so far, so we can get an idea of who the inactives are
1. JeeJee
2. bumatlarge
3. Bill Murray
10.SINiquity
11.XeliN
12.kane]deth[
15.infinitestory
16.cSc
20.drag_
21.CynanMachine
I did not count 1 line post with no real content. A bit less then half the people have posted by now with most of the content from a small group of people(~OpZ~,Amber[LighT].Divinek and Misder and some others) If we choose to vote inactive, we currently have quite the pool to choose from
Well, these inactives are the candidates that I'm in favor of voting of. And yea, I'm new, so I'm probably shit at this game rofl. I wouldn't be surprised if I screwed up the whole game.
I've attempted to give advice to the DT, but now I'm not so sure if it was a great idea or not.
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EPT
