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Forum Index > TL Mafia
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LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
September 09 2010 01:29 GMT
#361
Here's another theory I'm thinking of.

Notice that Pandian was the Capitalist-aligned Traitor. Does that mean there is more than one anti-soviet group?

That will change my thinking a lot. Right now I'm assuming that there is only one anti-soviet group.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
Divinek
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Canada4045 Posts
September 09 2010 02:21 GMT
#362
On September 09 2010 10:29 LSB wrote:
Here's another theory I'm thinking of.

Notice that Pandian was the Capitalist-aligned Traitor. Does that mean there is more than one anti-soviet group?

That will change my thinking a lot. Right now I'm assuming that there is only one anti-soviet group.


hmm well i believe anything is possible with caller. Though i was sad to see pandain not be a man eating panda.

He said some guns were not soviet, and one was even a big hand cannon or something, so that would lead me to think 2 other groups?

Or maybe one other group and a vig? Or maybe he just implied that his own people shot him too. Those are the options that seem to make sense. However the caveat is always on my mind when thinking of these things.
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Oh goodness me, FOX tv where do you get your sight? Can't you keep track, the puck is black. That's why the ice is white.
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
September 09 2010 02:40 GMT
#363
I like how every game of Mafia on this forum, when there isn't mafia blood the first two lynches resorts to "I don't think there is mafia".....or some "two groups" argument...

There is probably an SK and mafia....

And infundi....What exactly is a Panda?
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
rastaban
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States2294 Posts
September 09 2010 02:45 GMT
#364
where is caller, I am not sure if we still have day or not. I think technically night should be about over but not sure if it will start when caller posts or be retroactive.
Tyler: "...damn it, that's StarCraft. Opening doors is what we do. Being the first to find food is the greatest pleasure a player can have!"
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
September 09 2010 02:49 GMT
#365
The Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca, literally meaning "black and white cat-foot") is a bear native to central-western and south western China. It is easily recognized by its large, distinctive black patches around the eyes, over the ears, and across its round body. Though it belongs to the order Carnivora, the Giant Panda's diet is 99% bamboo. Other parts of its diet include honey, eggs, fish, yams, shrub leaves, oranges, and bananas when available.
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Hesmyrr
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Canada5776 Posts
September 09 2010 02:59 GMT
#366
Since NKVD measures wealth of the individual, I am inclined to believe that 'worthless' is town (communist) result, especially since I don't see why one would get scum result on me. Did you check Caller about what worthless flavour actually means?

Hopefully if ~OpZ~ gets off another investigation we'll have clearer idea about the result of investigation.
"If watching the MSL finals makes you a progamer, then anyone in Korea can do it." - Ha Tae Ki
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
September 09 2010 03:00 GMT
#367
Thank your for that very thorough description Infundi. Since you are around, would you mind giving me a list of suspects, whom you think I should investigate, possibly good actions for the rest of the town to do?

I'm uncertain of what actions to take. I mean, as much as I would like the medics to PM me, I can understand why not. I'm not confirmed, or anything of the like. And the only time I would like to actually confirm myself...is well...when I find a mafia, or wind up taking a hit. I'm not going to make the same mistake SR made...Poor devil...

Infundi, plz PM me....We...should speak.
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
September 09 2010 03:33 GMT
#368
Opz, just look for scummy people. The only way you can confirm yourself is to finger us to the right person
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
September 09 2010 04:12 GMT
#369
On September 09 2010 12:00 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Thank your for that very thorough description Infundi. Since you are around, would you mind giving me a list of suspects, whom you think I should investigate, possibly good actions for the rest of the town to do?


i've been having a spot of trouble analyzing people this game. anyway this is the way i've been thinking about it:

probable town:
Hesmyrr - especially if Opz is telling the truth, though he did forget about the russian boar bear....

rastaban - very pro-town plans, like using #trial, reasoning for public vote, accused Pandain

LSB - defended bumatlarge, accused Pandain.

keeping an eye on:
xelin - inactive until i pointed out his inactivity could be a grounds for a lynch. he's started posting more pro-town recently, but some of them are based on the incorrect assumption that Pandain was mafia, when he's a traitor. this is probably an innocent mistake on his part. his latest analysis post about lakrismamma is interesting too, but not much discussion has come of it.

zeks - so inactive that it's hard to put a read on him either way. we have what Pandain said, but Pandain didn't know any roles (unless Caller changed the fundamentals of the traitor) so it's hard to base anything from that.

Opz - claimed nkvd, meaning he would be the 2nd detective in a 15 person game. Depending on role setup this is very plausible. However a mafia fake claim is a very powerful play in this setup.

deconduo - i'm neutral on him. he's active but nothing about his posts is telling to me either way. noted that he flip flopped like lakrismamma did on Pandain lynch

lakrismamma - here we have a person that has become paired with xelin, because xelin accused him. while xelin makes some good points and an okay clue analysis, he hasn't been the most innocent behaving person so it's hard to judge his motives in this post.

divinek - he's made a decent number of posts but i can't recall any that were very helpful

---

some of the players have not once publicly stated their votes. this strikes me as very suspicious: i think freedom loving communist players would have no problem with writing down their votes in the thread for all comrades to see. these players are Xelin and zeks. The other problem is that some people have stated their votes on some accusations but not all, and for all we know some just havent been voting. it's a mess keeping track of this.

One thing i will do is compile all accusations into a list and keep it updated.

----

Out of 15 players, I'm pretty sure there are 3 mafia since traditionally mafia count is 20%. Caller sometimes does wonky role stuff,but 3 mafia is reasonable. The 2 kp is strange, since that is very high KP for 15 players. It makes me think there are some stronger town roles (i believe south as the third kill was not killed by mafia). There is probably 1 special mafia role like RB or GF. So if i had to pick 3 players right now, i would pick divinek, zeks, and xelin. I am not very confident though so I'd like to see everyone else posting their thoughts. Please, agree/disagree with me and provide some insight.

---

The medic: right now I am unsure if there is a medic in this game. The reason for this is that South's death went through so quickly. So there are a few options possible:

1) there is a medic(s) and he sent in his protection quickly and it wasn't on south
2) whatever killed south was unable to be stopped by a medic, so Caller didnt have to wait for the medics action
3) there is no medic

LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
September 09 2010 04:20 GMT
#370
Also I forgot to add the town is kind of in limbo right now what with Caller MIA. I don't know if its Day or Night or if zeks is supposed to be dead or if Xelins accusation on lakrismamma counts at all. I voted no on lakrismamma just in case and voted no on zeks. However I placed this vote on zeks when I thought Pandain was mafia and didn't realize he was a traitor. I don't know if I should switch my vote and it's probably too late to do that now.
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
September 09 2010 04:26 GMT
#371
it's still day you faggots

Judgement on Zeks-Not Guilty

Pending Judgement:
lakrismamma-8 or so hours
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
September 09 2010 04:29 GMT
#372
welcome back O glorious leader
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Divinek
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Canada4045 Posts
September 09 2010 05:01 GMT
#373
first mod post thats ever made me burst out laughing from surprise
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Oh goodness me, FOX tv where do you get your sight? Can't you keep track, the puck is black. That's why the ice is white.
XeliN
Profile Joined June 2009
United Kingdom1755 Posts
September 09 2010 05:10 GMT
#374
I'm tempted to quote my accusation post but that would seem abit churlish, I'll be blunt it hasn't yet elicited the response I was hoping for, I thought I provide some strong, logical and consistent analysis on Lakris.

The clue alone on him ought be strong enough, although the speculation about Pandain blurrs the waters slightly, alot of my accusation on him was based upon the assumption that he knew Pandains role which now at least is in question.
Adonai bless
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
September 09 2010 07:39 GMT
#375
Xelin....Do you like beaaaaaaaaaaaaaaares?
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
lakrismamma
Profile Joined August 2006
Sweden543 Posts
September 09 2010 10:05 GMT
#376
On September 09 2010 07:50 ~OpZ~ wrote:
well fuck. good catch that they are all traitors. pandain guessed my role. hesmyrr is possible scum. im nkvd. will post later. hasmyrr time to roleclaim to town for you.


This is huge and it requires further explanation. Why did you decide to roleclaim now?
1. The town is in a pretty good situation with 1/3 or 1/4 mafia lynched.
2. It is not sure that the medic exists at all. The early kill day one seems to indicate that.
3. How did Pandain guess it, in PM? Even if pandain guessed it its not sure that he was in contact with the rest of the mafia. The voting seems to suggest otherwise.

On September 09 2010 08:13 ~OpZ~ wrote:
hesmyrr. he has no worth. will be more specific later. gotta check pm from caller for proper wording. page 16 bottom i called him worthless. check it out.

in class.


If you checked Hesmyrr day one why did you write he was possibly scum? What clues did you get from Caller?

On September 09 2010 12:00 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Thank your for that very thorough description Infundi. Since you are around, would you mind giving me a list of suspects, whom you think I should investigate, possibly good actions for the rest of the town to do?

I'm uncertain of what actions to take. I mean, as much as I would like the medics to PM me, I can understand why not. I'm not confirmed, or anything of the like. And the only time I would like to actually confirm myself...is well...when I find a mafia, or wind up taking a hit. I'm not going to make the same mistake SR made...Poor devil...

Infundi, plz PM me....We...should speak.


What mistake did SR make?

On September 09 2010 14:10 XeliN wrote:
I'm tempted to quote my accusation post but that would seem abit churlish, I'll be blunt it hasn't yet elicited the response I was hoping for, I thought I provide some strong, logical and consistent analysis on Lakris.

The clue alone on him ought be strong enough, although the speculation about Pandain blurrs the waters slightly, alot of my accusation on him was based upon the assumption that he knew Pandains role which now at least is in question.


You didn't, you had one clue that was pretty far fetched. And then you had me being insecure about the lynch. That was before the big post LSB made that made Pandains defense buckle.
I hear thunder but theres no rain. This type of thunder breaks walls and window panes.
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
September 09 2010 12:38 GMT
#377
On September 09 2010 19:05 lakrismamma wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2010 07:50 ~OpZ~ wrote:
well fuck. good catch that they are all traitors. pandain guessed my role. hesmyrr is possible scum. im nkvd. will post later. hasmyrr time to roleclaim to town for you.


This is huge and it requires further explanation. Why did you decide to roleclaim now?
1. The town is in a pretty good situation with 1/3 or 1/4 mafia lynched.
2. It is not sure that the medic exists at all. The early kill day one seems to indicate that.
3. How did Pandain guess it, in PM? Even if pandain guessed it its not sure that he was in contact with the rest of the mafia. The voting seems to suggest otherwise.

Show nested quote +
On September 09 2010 08:13 ~OpZ~ wrote:
hesmyrr. he has no worth. will be more specific later. gotta check pm from caller for proper wording. page 16 bottom i called him worthless. check it out.

in class.


If you checked Hesmyrr day one why did you write he was possibly scum? What clues did you get from Caller?

Show nested quote +
On September 09 2010 12:00 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Thank your for that very thorough description Infundi. Since you are around, would you mind giving me a list of suspects, whom you think I should investigate, possibly good actions for the rest of the town to do?

I'm uncertain of what actions to take. I mean, as much as I would like the medics to PM me, I can understand why not. I'm not confirmed, or anything of the like. And the only time I would like to actually confirm myself...is well...when I find a mafia, or wind up taking a hit. I'm not going to make the same mistake SR made...Poor devil...

Infundi, plz PM me....We...should speak.


What mistake did SR make?

Show nested quote +
On September 09 2010 14:10 XeliN wrote:
I'm tempted to quote my accusation post but that would seem abit churlish, I'll be blunt it hasn't yet elicited the response I was hoping for, I thought I provide some strong, logical and consistent analysis on Lakris.

The clue alone on him ought be strong enough, although the speculation about Pandain blurrs the waters slightly, alot of my accusation on him was based upon the assumption that he knew Pandains role which now at least is in question.


You didn't, you had one clue that was p
retty far fetched. And then you had me being insecure about the lynch. That was before the big post LSB made that made Pandains defense buckle.

You need to read thread better. All your questions have been answered. Someone pointed out the officers are looking for a traitor in their ranks. So we figured it made sense all mafia were traitors. I was the one suggesting otherwise up until this point.

The rest of them? Go read the other peoples posts in relation to mine. I thought Pandain was SK. And Hesmyrr was pushing for his lynch.

You haven't read anything if I gotta explain why I said Hesmyrr was POSSIBLE scum. Soviets should have "Low" as their level of wealth. But Caller PM's some fucked up shit sometimes. WE HAD A COMPLETE DISCUSSION ABOUT EVERYTHING YOU'VE ASKED ME.

LRN2READ
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
lakrismamma
Profile Joined August 2006
Sweden543 Posts
September 09 2010 14:03 GMT
#378
Chill out dude? That I ask you to explain yourself is not very strange is it?
These are you posts since your roleclaim:

On September 09 2010 08:13 ~OpZ~ wrote:
hesmyrr. he has no worth. will be more specific later. gotta check pm from caller for proper wording. page 16 bottom i called him worthless. check it out.

in class.


On September 09 2010 11:40 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I like how every game of Mafia on this forum, when there isn't mafia blood the first two lynches resorts to "I don't think there is mafia".....or some "two groups" argument...

There is probably an SK and mafia....

And infundi....What exactly is a Panda?


On September 09 2010 12:00 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Thank your for that very thorough description Infundi. Since you are around, would you mind giving me a list of suspects, whom you think I should investigate, possibly good actions for the rest of the town to do?

I'm uncertain of what actions to take. I mean, as much as I would like the medics to PM me, I can understand why not. I'm not confirmed, or anything of the like. And the only time I would like to actually confirm myself...is well...when I find a mafia, or wind up taking a hit. I'm not going to make the same mistake SR made...Poor devil...

Infundi, plz PM me....We...should speak.


On September 09 2010 16:39 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Xelin....Do you like beaaaaaaaaaaaaaaares?


How have you answered my questions? Especially the first one why you chose to roleclaim since it is a bad play imo if you are an detective?

Also the one about Southrawrea what mistake are you referring to?

How am I to believe you are a detective if you make no sense?
I hear thunder but theres no rain. This type of thunder breaks walls and window panes.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
September 09 2010 14:49 GMT
#379
Ok, big post with a lot of my random thoughts. Its kind of all over the place, but hopefully you can understand it.


+ Show Spoiler +
On September 07 2010 23:02 rastaban wrote:

## Accuse Pandain

I am going to support this. I have felt he has been playing different this game. He has been town in all the games I have played with him, and it is usually fairly obvious. This game he has been different, the biggest thing that stands out to me is that he is not looking for or pushing for town plans. He is a player who loves town plans and usually has some of his own, they range from bad to good, but he always at least propose them. I haven't seen him pushing for any plans this game. This ontop of others suspicions makes me agree this is probably a good lynch


I haven't played with Pandain before, but the seems like a pretty valid accusation. After the revalation of the Panda killer role, in my head everything lined up and I vote yes for the Pandain lynch. However I felt like Pandain defended himself quite well and made pretty good points. I (foolishly) withdrew my vote for the time being to think about it a bit more. He was dead when I next woke up >.< This game goes too fast imo. I honestly didn't think the Pandain lynch would go through, but in hindsight I'm obviously glad it did. Unfortunately, until we know more information on his role (traitor or actual maf) theres not a whole lot we can deduce from his death. We can however work off each assumption and see if anything lines up.





My thoughts on some people:

Townies:

~OpZ~
Claimed NVKD. Says Hesmyrr is poor. Seems to be legit, but I would wonder why he claimed at the time he did, especially with no evidence to show that we have medics. Pandain attempted to get him lynched.


Rastaban

I've gotten a pro town read from him for most of the game. Pushed for the Pandain lynch.


LSB
I feel is pretty townie. Pushed pretty hard with rasta for the Pandain lynch. If we can verify that Pandain was a 'proper' maf we can pretty much clear these 3 imo. Doesn't say much if he was an actual traitor though.


Hesmyrr
Pretty much cleared if Opz is legit. Could be GF though.

Neutrals:


Xelin
Can't really read him properly tbh. Interesting accusation against Lakris.


Infundibulum
Just don't have any sort of a read of him.

Zeks
Pandain pushed for his lynch, but there is an interesting quote from him after Pandain died:
On September 08 2010 12:50 zeks wrote:
once i die lynch OpZ

that is all

Considering Opz is our claimed DT, I'm not too sure what he meant by this.


Fosses:


Lakrismamma
Accused right now. Xelin has shown a pretty strong case against him.


Divinek
My current FOS. Both he and Pandain claimed Radfield suggested the bumatlarge lynch, he seemed to be pals with Pandain too. Hasn't contributed anything since the bumatlarge lynch.


The good news is that no one is lurking anymore, not to any significant extent anyway.

Finally some thoughts on our situation.

10 of us alive, and we don't really have any information on the roles. No one has stepped forward to claim for the southrawr death, so we still don't know if that was a once off or what. Apart from that it seems like the maf had 2KP, or possibly 1 KP + an SK.

Best situation, if lakris is lynched and is town:

We have a medic, and neither opz nor hesmyrr die. The pandain lynch reduced the maf KP to 1. We start tomorrow with an extra report and 8 alive. In theory this gives us 3 clears if neither are GF, 4 if the medic steps forward.

If maf still have 2 KP, same situation leaves us with 7 alive and 3-4 clears.

If hesmyrr dies it leaves us with 7 alive and 2-3 clears

If we have no medic and hes + opz dies, this leaves us in big trouble. 7 alive with a possible 3 of them being maf, (2 being more likely) and no one clear per se.

So we really need to hope we have a medic.

If lakris is a maf then we are in an awesome situation. That leaves us with maf almost certainly on 1 KP, and probably with only 1 left alive. Even if Opz dies, we are left with a probably clear in hesmyrr.

LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
September 09 2010 14:52 GMT
#380
Lak, dont worry about Opz's roleclaim yet
Lets get one more investigation from Opz before we worry about confirming our comrade

Opz, good luck hunting down some capitalists
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
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