EPTTeam Melee Mini Mafia II - Page 33
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
On September 29 2010 04:58 SouthRawrea wrote: What's stopping mafia from NKing tonight and increasing their chances of winning tomorrow because we have no choice but to lynch? You're being too naive. I don't even know what you are meaning with this. If they don't hit then it is like our medic had 100% success stopping them. What I was doing was giving advice on how the mafia is thinking about the hit, if they don't hit at all then obviously it doesn't matter who is protected. Sure the mafia could pull there hit but do you really think they would do that? The huge problem with that is that if they pull their hit then and lynch wrong, there is a 1/3 chance that the town medic blocks the hit and it is game. and really only a 1/2 chance if we are certain who the mafia is. If do you really think the mafia will try and gamble on a strategy that nearly has a built in 50% chance of losing....  | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
 . Thanks for clarifying. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
I just don't get why Bum/SR is discussing where to hit for the night. Are they trying to influence the medic save? | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
But suggesting that the mafia won't shoot anyone? Thats quiet weird. I can't see any reason why this would be used. Team two would kill Team 3, Team 3 would kill 2. Unless Incog is mafia, but as always, the possibility of that is 0% | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
On September 29 2010 04:58 SouthRawrea wrote: What's stopping mafia from NKing tonight and increasing their chances of winning tomorrow because we have no choice but to lynch? You're being too naive. The mafia have to kill every night, I asked Korynne earlier and posted it in the thread | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Day 3 Come on now children, on to your new room. Everyone walked into the new room, there were roller coaster seats around the room. Strap yourselves in, boys~ So a new day begins. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
On September 29 2010 10:02 SouthRawrea wrote: Called it... CALLED IT no you didn't. we self protected. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
Adendum: The other option is that Foolishness is mafia. Which I'm analyzing at this point, but I find extremely unlikely. | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
##Vote Team 1 | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
1) We have a medic, which doesn't make sense since they would have said something by now. 2) There is no medic. But this does not make sense either since Incognito and Infundibulum claimed to have protected themselves. If they were mafia, it'd be much more plausible for them to say they protected team 3 (or any other team maybe). This is because they'd instantly be seen as confirmed, and rastaban and I would instantly be on their side, and they'd virtually have no way of losing. Also consider that it'd be believable for the mafia to hit us (team 3), especially given that people were talking about it during the night. Long way of saying what we pretty much already know, but it's more reason not to doubt their claim, and more reason for us to focus on teams 1 through 3. I still think team 2 is mafia at the moment, but I'll be looking. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
vote team 1 I think this game was well played either way, but I still will pray. I didnt write any stuff but I may try to eek out some funny noisiness before ITS THE FINAL COUNTDOWN | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On September 29 2010 05:49 rastaban wrote: I don't even know what you are meaning with this. If they don't hit then it is like our medic had 100% success stopping them. What I was doing was giving advice on how the mafia is thinking about the hit, if they don't hit at all then obviously it doesn't matter who is protected. Sure the mafia could pull there hit but do you really think they would do that? The huge problem with that is that if they pull their hit then and lynch wrong, there is a 1/3 chance that the town medic blocks the hit and it is game. and really only a 1/2 chance if we are certain who the mafia is. If do you really think the mafia will try and gamble on a strategy that nearly has a built in 50% chance of losing.... mafia CAN'T pull their hit remember it was already asked they HAVE to try and hit someone, so incog is 100% cleared i think? ##vote team 1 | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 29 2010 13:08 Foolishness wrote: I think this confirms Incognito and Infundibulum as medic. If we assume they are mafia, then the situations as follows: 1) We have a medic, which doesn't make sense since they would have said something by now. 2) There is no medic. But this does not make sense either since Incognito and Infundibulum claimed to have protected themselves. If they were mafia, it'd be much more plausible for them to say they protected team 3 (or any other team maybe). This is because they'd instantly be seen as confirmed, and rastaban and I would instantly be on their side, and they'd virtually have no way of losing. Also consider that it'd be believable for the mafia to hit us (team 3), especially given that people were talking about it during the night. Long way of saying what we pretty much already know, but it's more reason not to doubt their claim, and more reason for us to focus on teams 1 through 3. I still think team 2 is mafia at the moment, but I'll be looking. 2) is not possible. Mafia are not allowed to no hit. The fact that nobody died last night means that a medic exists. Since nobody else has claimed, we're the medic. Night 1: Ace/BM dies. Ace's top suspect was LSB (Team 1). Night 2: Pandain/BB dies. Pandain wrote two long posts on why LSB was mafia and why Pyrr was mafia. And another one on why meeple was town. Night 3: I am targetted. I pushed Team 1 day 1. I also stated I was for sure going to vote Team 1 after Team 6 was lynched. Common thread here? People who accuse Team 1 die. 3x is more than a coincidence to me. With that said, I have reason to believe Team 1 may not be mafia. Unvote: Team 1 Pyrr/LSB have had bad activity and haven't been pro-town at all. Granted, I attacked them very close to the beginning of the game, so the townie-defense-mode kneejerk reaction might well be the case. Their recent (in)activity might just be disgust of my attacks. The night kills totally don't look good for them. However, I'm looking at the day 2 lynch. I linked Team 7 and Team 1. Why would Team 1 be so outraged at the connection if they were mafia? They would have known Team 7 is innocent. Since I was going for Team 7 for lynch instead of Team 1, Team 1 shouldn't have any worries about the Team 7 lynch because Team 7's death would discredit my connection. Pyrr has the idea that I know Pyrr is mafia, therefore YellowInk is mafia. Let's assume he believes that that was my actual argument. As mafia, why would he care if an Innocent YellowInk is lynched? He doesn't. YellowInk flipping green is good for his case. Pyrr has no reason to discredit the link there, especially since we're going after YI before Pyrr. As Foolishness also said, Team 1 accusing Team 6 day one doesn't make too much sense unless they were feeling really desperate. Team 2 doesn't make sense. I was targetted by the mafia. Given Foolishness' adamant attacks on Team 2, it doesn't make sense for Team 2 to kill me, since I would save them and kill team 1. Killing Foolishness seems the most sensible here, as the risk of Team 2 losing by Foolishness's vote is just too great to warrant using a WIFOM argument. Looking at those two teams, we find that by process of elimination, Team 3 must be mafia. However, lets still examine them a little closer: Team 3 makes sense. Team 7 blindly calls out Team 6 on day 2. Foolishness attacks this and says he'd go for it but nobody's presented any analysis on Team 6. Then on day 3, Foolishness votes Team 6 and tells us to just read their posts to see why. Something that YellowInk said the day before but Foolishness criticized. This comes after I claim medic. Now why does Foolishness decide to vote Team 6 instead of me? Even after he said he'd go after me if meeple flipped green. First of all, if he's mafia, he can't discount my statement of disgust/ragequit. He has to assume it is a trap. Foolishness probably knows that Pyrr did the same thing as mafia. It is easy for him to sit back while town viciously kills me for this "tell". Its hard for him to jump on board because that's just not his style. He isn't known for lynching off of these bogus "tells". Since he has to assume that I'm bluffing and that I'm not ragequitting, he can't safely jump on that wagon. Therefore, he has to do it by analysis. However, its hard for Foolishness to do a full post analysis of me in the context of me being mafia. If he is forced to quote all my posts, like he did for meeple, its painfully obvious that I'm town from my first few posts and the general fact that I'm the driving force of this game. So he might as well let others deduce that I'm fishy by themselves. Notice how the entire game Foolishness has been dropping posts indicating that he thinks I'm mafia. He never backs up a single one of those attacks with evidence. Interesting, given that I've dared him multiple times to analyze my posts and find me scummy. In any case, its hard for Foolishness to get away with good analysis noting why I'm mafia. Also hard for him to get away with a BS reason on why I'm mafia, as he doesn't know if my ragequit statement was planned or not. Safer for him to let other people find me scummy and lynch me, while he votes his own team mate. Notice how he never gives Pyrr a reason why he thinks RoL is more scummy than me. He also never gives inf an answer to where inf dropped "medic tells". Because quite frankly, he prefers if I'm lynched. He doesn't want to convince anyone that I'm innocent. Besides, a lot of people are going to find me suspicious. I lynched an innocent, and made funny statements. So now he's caught. He can't really lynch Team 1 or 8. Which leaves his scumbuddy and Team 2. Gunning for Team 2 doesn't make sense given his previous statements about team 6. Politically he was suspicious of Team 6 at the end of Day 2. Which makes it hard for him to vote team 2 off the bat. After RoL's fakeclaim though, notice Foolishness suggesting a switch to Team 2. Even after the fakeclaim he still can't really vote me because he'd have to have real analysis. Foolishness can't viably push Team 1 because he's opposed it all game. Perhaps he was banking on me pushing it to lead him to victory. He also can't push Team 2 given that they aren't really on anyone's radar at this point. He can't push me if he thinks I'm going to win in the analysis battle. So he has to push Team 6, who is on people's radar, and has been playing scummily. He just has to rely on either me pushing Team 1 ruthlessly, or people wanting to kill me for whatever reason. Then, if the vote is close enough, a last minute switch would win him the game. Furthermore, Foolishness hasn't been giving much analysis this game, if at all. The main piece of analysis here is on meeple. Which I previously stated was superficially agreeable yet in reality it was sketchy analysis. He does none of the usual fishing, jabs, or other provocative moves whatsoever in the thread aimed at gaining information. His only other "analytical" piece is a process of elimination move where he picks Team 2/6 for mafia. All the hits on proponents of a Team 1 lynch could be fabricated to convince me that something is up with Team 1. After all, I'm the most vocal player here so far, so convincing me of something while opposing me in thread gains him credibility when I eventually get Team 1 lynched and they flip green. My main worry right now is that I think Foolishness plays a much more passive mafia than he has played this game. Team 1's play is absolutely attrocious apart from the day 2 defense followed by a green flip. That's the main reason for me keeping them alive at this point. Note that the stuff on Team 3 isn't pure analysis. It has a lot of weird logic in it. The main reason I see for Team 3 to be mafia is that Team 1/2 doesn't really fit. Foolishness fits a lot more in my opinion. Main points: 1) Foolishness hasn't really been doing analysis, or at least, with the exception of meeple (sketchy analysis), he hasn't been posting it. 2) Foolishness hasn't been actively gathering information. 3) Pointing to Foolishness's willingness to lynch Team 6 doesn't quite work because a) he had few other options after my post-Day 2 comments. As long as he got one townie to vote me, he would still be safe with a last minute switch, winning the game. [Vote]Team 3 | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
 i guess i can pull my vote off since i won't get mod killed and think about it for a while longer ##unvote | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
He knew Team 1 was innocent. He knew how adamantly I was pushing Team 1 on day 1. He knew that opposing it could give him town cred in the future. With my accusations of team 7, it doesn't look all too suspicious for Foolishness because I'm pretty much at the head of the lynch. Causing some chaos, veering me off my course, and later trapping me with my own convictions on Team 1 gives mafia the easy win, as that's already two mislynches right there. | ||
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