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WombaT
Northern Ireland25977 Posts
People put forward critiques and alternatives, they’re out there. In the more specific domain of this topic’s subject it’s less a matter of regrettable political leanings, although that’s not ideal either, but him talking utter bollocks on all sorts of hot political topics. | ||
KwarK
United States43201 Posts
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Uldridge
Belgium4949 Posts
We're in a cult era due to online and hyper rich fandom, reach and idolisation. It's very disturbing and it's not only happening on the right. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On December 22 2024 02:25 Uldridge wrote: It seems like you're all misunderstanding the far right 'fascism' uprising. The reason they're becoming popular is because there's a big issue. Not because everything is going swimmingly. You don't need an appeal to authoritarianism or populism or large overhauls or paradigm shift when life is chugging along. People feel unsafe and unheard. Whether facts map onto experience 1:1 is not important at all. Experiences = facts especially for humans. See 10 brown people and the cities are swarming with immigrants. See one of them rolling around in an expensive car and they must be stealing tax money, or rather, the government is using tax money to give immigrant unrightful amounts of money so they get a huge lead on the natives. Sadly, the rhetoric is corrosive and needlessly antagonistic. However, how would you feel of you've seen your situation deteriorate relative to other in society with no fault of your own. You've just been living your life, doing your grocieries and doing your job. How is it somehow worst than 10 - 20 years ago? Btw: I'm not agreeing with their conclusions or with their rhetoric at all. I'm saying simple people come to unfounded conclusions based on flawed analysis. They need a better alternative and the left isn't seemingly offering one. I'm trying to find understanding for why these movement became the way they became so that we can start countering it effectively. The general crime rate in Germany was on a strong decline since 2015 and well into the pandemic. It returned to normal levels after the pandemic. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101190/crimes-recorded-by-police-per-100000-inhabitants-germany Violent crime specifically was declining between 2007 and 2021. Then it rose sharply, approaching (but not quite reaching) the fifteen-year high. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101220/violent-crime-cases-numbers-police-record-germany/ In other words in 2023 it was roughly 1.09x (+9%) of the 23-year average. Let me put that into perspective by drawing a comparison to the US. The US has (and always had) a much higher violent crime rate than Germany. In 2023 it was 376 (per 100 000) compared to Germany's 214. That means Germany's rate was 43% lower than the US'. I think you can see how Germany has been quite effective at keeping violent crime low for several decades. Germany's lowest rate was 164 in 2021. The US' lowest violent crime rate was 297 in 2021 (likely because of the pandemic). Over the last fifteen years they're usually around 350-400. Their downtrend started with Clinton. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/americas-violent-crime-rate-1986-2023/ Over this the AfD has been making a fuss? Seriously? They have no argument. They only have their typical far-right alarmism. Always making an elephant out of a mouse. Hyper-selective scaremongering. Furthermore, there are valid reasons why general crime in Germany by non-Germans is generally reported higher. The reasons are similar as in the US. Black youths in the US aren't inherently more criminal, but instead they're more often arrested for criminal offenses. This leads to a higher recorded rate of various crimes and is one of several reasons why there is a crime disparity. What the AfD also doesn't tell you is that 90% of attacks against asylum shelters are driven by the far-right. That's only one of several statistics I can quote on the horrible effect of the Nazi AfD ideology on violent crime. For example attacks against refugees increased by 75% between 2022 and 2023. That by itself ruined years of a consistent decline. https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/60311/behind-the-statistics-crime-migration-and-labor-shortages-in-germany Why is the AfD not scaremongering that? Why are they silent about the effect their rhetoric has on attacks against refugees? If you want to reduce violent crime, the best idea is to keep the AfD far away from all positions of power. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
The 50 y/o Magdeburg suspect Taleb A who drove his car into a crowd and killed five people is a Saudi ex-Muslim turned anti-Muslim who supports the AfD because Germany is too Muslim-friendly (yes, you read all of that correctly). He has lived in (East) Germany for two decades and is a specialist in psychiatry and psychotherapy (shoutout to Jordan Peterson). Supporter of AfD, the same AfD that Elon Musk supports, killing people and wounding hundreds before Christmas. You can't make this up. https://apnews.com/article/germany-christmas-market-attack-magdeburg-taleb-31987cebcd72ab6781da2edf15dc6538 | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1870739695950594302 | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
On December 22 2024 04:59 Magic Powers wrote: The general crime rate in Germany was on a strong decline since 2015 and well into the pandemic. It returned to normal levels after the pandemic. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101190/crimes-recorded-by-police-per-100000-inhabitants-germany Violent crime specifically was declining between 2007 and 2021. Then it rose sharply, approaching (but not quite reaching) the fifteen-year high. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101220/violent-crime-cases-numbers-police-record-germany/ In other words in 2023 it was roughly 1.09x (+9%) of the 23-year average. Let me put that into perspective by drawing a comparison to the US. The US has (and always had) a much higher violent crime rate than Germany. In 2023 it was 376 (per 100 000) compared to Germany's 214. That means Germany's rate was 43% lower than the US'. I think you can see how Germany has been quite effective at keeping violent crime low for several decades. Germany's lowest rate was 164 in 2021. The US' lowest violent crime rate was 297 in 2021 (likely because of the pandemic). Over the last fifteen years they're usually around 350-400. Their downtrend started with Clinton. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/americas-violent-crime-rate-1986-2023/ Over this the AfD has been making a fuss? Seriously? They have no argument. They only have their typical far-right alarmism. Always making an elephant out of a mouse. Hyper-selective scaremongering. Furthermore, there are valid reasons why general crime in Germany by non-Germans is generally reported higher. The reasons are similar as in the US. Black youths in the US aren't inherently more criminal, but instead they're more often arrested for criminal offenses. This leads to a higher recorded rate of various crimes and is one of several reasons why there is a crime disparity. What the AfD also doesn't tell you is that 90% of attacks against asylum shelters are driven by the far-right. That's only one of several statistics I can quote on the horrible effect of the Nazi AfD ideology on violent crime. For example attacks against refugees increased by 75% between 2022 and 2023. That by itself ruined years of a consistent decline. https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/60311/behind-the-statistics-crime-migration-and-labor-shortages-in-germany Why is the AfD not scaremongering that? Why are they silent about the effect their rhetoric has on attacks against refugees? If you want to reduce violent crime, the best idea is to keep the AfD far away from all positions of power. I decided to venture a bit into German crime statistic as well. Overall population of Germany https://www.statista.com/statistics/672608/development-population-numbers-germany/ 2014 - 81,2 mil 2020 - 83,16 mil 2023 - 84,67 mil Foreigner population of Germany https://www.statista.com/statistics/886209/foreigner-numbers-germany/ 2014 - 8,15 mil - 10% of population 2020 - 11,43 mil - 13.7% of population 2023 - 13,9 mil - 16,4% of population Ergo number of German nationals in Germany would be 2014 - 73,05 mil 2020 - 71,73 mil 2023 - 70,77 mil Now for the crime statistic. The tricky question is if how number of "Non-German suspects" is divided between foreigners who live there regularly and short-time visitors, like tourists. But my opinion on that is that tourists and other short term visitors are the minority in that regard, and more on that below. Now for the stats - took 2014, 2020 (to check trend during COVID) and 2023 (file "Cases - Basic Table in every link"). https://www.bka.de/EN/CurrentInformation/Statistics/PoliceCrimeStatistics/2014/pcs2014_node.html https://www.bka.de/EN/CurrentInformation/Statistics/PoliceCrimeStatistics/2020/pcs2020_node.html https://www.bka.de/EN/CurrentInformation/Statistics/PoliceCrimeStatistics/2023/pcs2023_node.html So, for number of crimes overall - indeed, by 2020 it was downward trend, which got up by 2023: 2014 - 6 082 064 2020 - 5 310 621 2023 - 5 940 667 However, the problem in question is less about crime-rate overall, and more about nationality of a perpetrator (German/non-German). And here is the onion. If we check the row "total offences, excluding offences against the Residence Act, the Asylum Procedures Act, and the Freedom of Movement Act/E.U" (because excluded offences are basically 100% migrant-related and will negatively inflate stats for non-Germans) and the column "non-German suspect in %", we'll see the following: 2014 - 24,3% 2020 - 29,9% 2023 - 34,4% So percentage of overal crimes (excluding violation of immigration/movement laws) commited by non-Germans grows steadily. If we specify violent crimes by the same metric, then: 2014 - 28,8% 2020 - 38,2% 2023 - 41,5% Crimes against life: 2014 - 25,7% 2020 - 34,4% 2023 - 38% Street crimes: 2014 - 25% 2020 - 31,6% 2023 - 37,4% And etc. etc. Now why I believe that majority of these crimes commited by foreigners living in Germany, rather than visiting, is because 2020 saw a big hit on tourism and any kind of short-term visiting the country https://www.statista.com/statistics/1090016/guest-arrivals-travel-accommodation-germany/ However growing trend of crimed commited by non-Germans remained and coincided heavily with growing number of non-German residents in Germany given above. So I conclude that they are the main influence on the crime statistics. Indeed growth of crime rate by non-Germans is kinds slower than their increase within the population. In 2014-2023 period percentage of non-Germans in Germany increased by 64% (from 10 to 16,4% of the population) while percent of non-German suspects in, for example, aforementioned crimes grew by 40-50%. However level of crimes commited by non-Germans is still much higher than commited by Germans. So if we have 16,4% of population commiting 34,4% of crimes. Or 41,5% of violent crimes. So non-German resident is 2,7 more times likely to commit a crime (or, well, be suspect of one) than German. Or 3,6 more times likely to commit violent crime/be suspect of one than German. As for negative prejudice towards non-Germans resulting in disproportionately higher number of them being falsely accused - are there any stats backing that up, like lower clearance rate for crimes commited by non-Germans? | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On December 23 2024 06:59 Ardias wrote: I decided to venture a bit into German crime statistic as well. Overall population of Germany https://www.statista.com/statistics/672608/development-population-numbers-germany/ 2014 - 81,2 mil 2020 - 83,16 mil 2023 - 84,67 mil Foreigner population of Germany https://www.statista.com/statistics/886209/foreigner-numbers-germany/ 2014 - 8,15 mil - 10% of population 2020 - 11,43 mil - 13.7% of population 2023 - 13,9 mil - 16,4% of population Ergo number of German nationals in Germany would be 2014 - 73,05 mil 2020 - 71,73 mil 2023 - 70,77 mil Now for the crime statistic. The tricky question is if how number of "Non-German suspects" is divided between foreigners who live there regularly and short-time visitors, like tourists. But my opinion on that is that tourists and other short term visitors are the minority in that regard, and more on that below. Now for the stats - took 2014, 2020 (to check trend during COVID) and 2023 (file "Cases - Basic Table in every link"). https://www.bka.de/EN/CurrentInformation/Statistics/PoliceCrimeStatistics/2014/pcs2014_node.html https://www.bka.de/EN/CurrentInformation/Statistics/PoliceCrimeStatistics/2020/pcs2020_node.html https://www.bka.de/EN/CurrentInformation/Statistics/PoliceCrimeStatistics/2023/pcs2023_node.html So, for number of crimes overall - indeed, by 2020 it was downward trend, which got up by 2023: 2014 - 6 082 064 2020 - 5 310 621 2023 - 5 940 667 However, the problem in question is less about crime-rate overall, and more about nationality of a perpetrator (German/non-German). And here is the onion. If we check the row "total offences, excluding offences against the Residence Act, the Asylum Procedures Act, and the Freedom of Movement Act/E.U" (because excluded offences are basically 100% migrant-related and will negatively inflate stats for non-Germans) and the column "non-German suspect in %", we'll see the following: 2014 - 24,3% 2020 - 29,9% 2023 - 34,4% So percentage of overal crimes (excluding violation of immigration/movement laws) commited by non-Germans grows steadily. If we specify violent crimes by the same metric, then: 2014 - 28,8% 2020 - 38,2% 2023 - 41,5% Crimes against life: 2014 - 25,7% 2020 - 34,4% 2023 - 38% Street crimes: 2014 - 25% 2020 - 31,6% 2023 - 37,4% And etc. etc. Now why I believe that majority of these crimes commited by foreigners living in Germany, rather than visiting, is because 2020 saw a big hit on tourism and any kind of short-term visiting the country https://www.statista.com/statistics/1090016/guest-arrivals-travel-accommodation-germany/ However growing trend of crimed commited by non-Germans remained and coincided heavily with growing number of non-German residents in Germany given above. So I conclude that they are the main influence on the crime statistics. Indeed growth of crime rate by non-Germans is kinds slower than their increase within the population. In 2014-2023 period percentage of non-Germans in Germany increased by 64% (from 10 to 16,4% of the population) while percent of non-German suspects in, for example, aforementioned crimes grew by 40-50%. However level of crimes commited by non-Germans is still much higher than commited by Germans. So if we have 16,4% of population commiting 34,4% of crimes. Or 41,5% of violent crimes. So non-German resident is 2,7 more times likely to commit a crime (or, well, be suspect of one) than German. Or 3,6 more times likely to commit violent crime/be suspect of one than German. As for negative prejudice towards non-Germans resulting in disproportionately higher number of them being falsely accused - are there any stats backing that up, like lower clearance rate for crimes commited by non-Germans? Thank you for the breakdown, this is basically confirming what we know. As to why non-Germans have higher crime rates, the last article in my post goes into that. Rate of policing and reporting for example artificially drives numbers up or down in different neighborhoods. Such bias leads to different rates of arrest. Economic uncertainty can also lead to frustration and thus more violence, which makes it important to process migrants faster and not put pointless hurdles in front of them. Violence from non-Germans is also more often directed at other non-Germans, which is another important factor to consider. There's plenty to analyze, but one thing is certain: the statistics are not easily interpreted from a distance. It's important to have an understanding of the situation on the ground, which the numbers alone can't give us. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
- Rate of policing and reporting for example artificially drives numbers up or down in different neighborhoods. Such bias leads to different rates of arrest. - Economic uncertainty can also lead to frustration and thus more violence - Violence from non-Germans is also more often directed at other non-Germans, which is another important factor to consider. I believe these are all points against immigration? And what does Musk have to do with this? | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25977 Posts
On December 23 2024 08:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: Are you for real tbh? - Rate of policing and reporting for example artificially drives numbers up or down in different neighborhoods. Such bias leads to different rates of arrest. - Economic uncertainty can also lead to frustration and thus more violence - Violence from non-Germans is also more often directed at other non-Germans, which is another important factor to consider. I believe these are all points against immigration? And what does Musk have to do with this? Because he’s posting kneejerk reactions on his platform, to millions of Now, it may turn out that this is incorrect too, but there’s no harm on waiting for some established facts to come out. Patience is a virtue as they say and Musk apparently has none. We’re mere months from him posting about a race war in the UK after riots that were precipitated by incorrect information spread most widely on his own platform Maybe he should shut the fuck up about political matters and stick to his successful business ventures Stick to your lane as it were. He has a skillset but that ain’t it, he’s just so consistently wrong, and so consistently makes harmonious relations less likely he should just fuck up But he won’t because he believes the status of super genius that he’s been conferred by his fanboys and girls to be a correct assessment. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On December 23 2024 08:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: Are you for real tbh? - Rate of policing and reporting for example artificially drives numbers up or down in different neighborhoods. Such bias leads to different rates of arrest. - Economic uncertainty can also lead to frustration and thus more violence - Violence from non-Germans is also more often directed at other non-Germans, which is another important factor to consider. I believe these are all points against immigration? And what does Musk have to do with this? Two groups have the exact same true rate of crimes. However, group A faces more policing and produces more reports than group B. Therefore group A experiences more arrests despite not being any more criminally active. Or vica versa group B experiences fewer arrests despite not being any less criminally active. This is a hypothetical scenario explaining a larger than expected disparity in arrests between two groups. Economic uncertainty should be addressed by not putting migrants through a pointless process that puts them in limbo. Economic uncertainty can be reduced by handling migrants more productively. In-group violence is logical. The point is that Germans aren't the ones who are predominantly on the receiving end of greater than expected rates of violence. It is directed towards other non-Germans, thus neither cause nor solution are what groups such as the AfD claim it to be. None of these are arguments against immigration. The argument is to improve immigration. I explained in previous posts what Elon has to do with it. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On December 23 2024 09:26 WombaT wrote: Because he’s posting kneejerk reactions on his platform, to millions of Now, it may turn out that this is incorrect too, but there’s no harm on waiting for some established facts to come out. Patience is a virtue as they say and Musk apparently has none. We’re mere months from him posting about a race war in the UK after riots that were precipitated by incorrect information spread most widely on his own platform Maybe he should shut the fuck up about political matters and stick to his successful business ventures Stick to your lane as it were. He has a skillset but that ain’t it, he’s just so consistently wrong, and so consistently makes harmonious relations less likely he should just fuck up But he won’t because he believes the status of super genius that he’s been conferred by his fanboys and girls to be a correct assessment. I agree, but please do not post something that is also misleading, like you did before. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On December 23 2024 09:44 Magic Powers wrote: Two groups have the exact same true rate of crimes. However, group A faces more policing and produces more reports than group B. Therefore group A experiences more arrests despite not being any more criminally active. Or vica versa group B experiences fewer arrests despite not being any less criminally active. This is a hypothetical scenario explaining a larger than expected disparity in arrests between two groups. Economic uncertainty should be addressed by not putting migrants through a pointless process that puts them in limbo. Economic uncertainty can be reduced by handling migrants more productively. In-group violence is logical. The point is that Germans aren't the ones who are predominantly on the receiving end of greater than expected rates of violence. It is directed towards other non-Germans, thus neither cause nor solution are what groups such as the AfD claim it to be. None of these are arguments against immigration. The argument is to improve immigration. I explained in previous posts what Elon has to do with it. I never claimed anything like this. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On December 23 2024 10:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: I never claimed anything like this. What? These are MY explanations for the reported numbers. Also, Wombat didn't post anything misleading. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On December 23 2024 10:36 Magic Powers wrote: What? These are MY explanations for the reported numbers. Also, Wombat didn't post anything misleading. Okay, you can read the statistics as you may.. It seems like we don't have the same outcome in the statistics. We can read the statistics as we please. We can also read the outcome in like last 10 years as we please. You can use words as you do, but the outcome doesn't get better or worse. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On December 23 2024 10:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay, you can read the statistics as you may.. It seems like we don't have the same outcome in the statistics. We can read the statistics as we please. We can also read the outcome in like last 10 years as we please. You can use words as you do, but the outcome doesn't get better or worse. What are you even talking about? Several of the arguments I'm presenting are also presented in the article I linked. These are very well known explanations for disparities in crime statistics. In the US for example it's an accepted fact among academics that black people face significantly more policing, reporting, profiling etc. than white people do, leading to a large disparity in arrests. The same is true in other countries with various groups. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25977 Posts
On December 23 2024 10:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: I agree, but please do not post something that is also misleading, like you did before. If I posted something misleading well my bad, but if you don’t correct me I can’t correct myself | ||
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PurE)Rabbit-SF
United States674 Posts
And no one is perfect, we are just human, the higher they stand, the harder they will fail when shit crash down, like when they make mistakes. Many of these billionaire success I used to rave about, I have learned my lesson, is just a matter of time something stupid happen and all of that aura will be gone. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25977 Posts
On December 24 2024 12:24 PurE)Rabbit-SF wrote: honestly, why do we even bother with these stuff, countless billionaire have done stupid things, most of them did it in the back and behind curtain. Elon is just an out spoken one. And no one is perfect, we are just human, the higher they stand, the harder they will fail when shit crash down, like when they make mistakes. Many of these billionaire success I used to rave about, I have learned my lesson, is just a matter of time something stupid happen and all of that aura will be gone. Precisely because he chooses to stick himself out front and centre, buy popular social media platforms to run on his whim and generally luxuriate in the glow his supposed genius generates. Or injecting himself into frontline politics. Nobody’s asking or remotely expecting perfection, just don’t be fucking shit. Don’t post nonsense about UK politics when you don’t know what the fuck you’re talking about. Don’t post about foreigners ruining Germany with their differing beliefs in the immediate aftermath of a tragedy when oh, apparently the guy was a zealot supporter of the party you championed It’s really not a high bar and he doesn’t fucking clear it | ||
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PurE)Rabbit-SF
United States674 Posts
On December 24 2024 13:20 WombaT wrote: Precisely because he chooses to stick himself out front and centre, buy popular social media platforms to run on his whim and generally luxuriate in the glow his supposed genius generates. Or injecting himself into frontline politics. Nobody’s asking or remotely expecting perfection, just don’t be fucking shit. Don’t post nonsense about UK politics when you don’t know what the fuck you’re talking about. Don’t post about foreigners ruining Germany with their differing beliefs in the immediate aftermath of a tragedy when oh, apparently the guy was a zealot supporter of the party you championed It’s really not a high bar and he doesn’t fucking clear it From what I can tell, and from what I hear, he probably has bi-polar as well, and he take a tranquilizer with him around. Well, you've seen how stupid I can become sometimes on this forum as someone with bi-polar :S I think sometime we are way more impulsive and draw conclusion and observation that a normal person wouldn't due to the logic doesn't add up together in all corner and stuff. Well... unhinged sometime you know. I mean the thoughts sometime just jumps around, and jumping the gun is much more frequent than a normal person would. And I think he is just a business man capturing the market because there's a market need for the kind of things he is doing, that was suppressed before he did some of these things. As for his political takes and opinion, I mean if he can be correct with all the rocket stuff and other business things he is doing would be amazing already, plus he is a gamer grinding a lot.... I do agree with you the bar is not very high to clear, but I also think we ourselves probably shouldn't give him that much attention and credit. But sadly, we love "idols" :D Anyhow, merry Christmas, and for the shit Elon says that isn't right, may the SpaceX dragon shoot it to mars with Elon himself, so you don't have to see him in your face, hahaha. | ||
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