On April 12 2025 00:44 mounteast02 wrote: It is far too early to predict the "winner" (whatever it means) of the trade war between china and usa.
Personally, I believe china make the right move to confront usa the way it did, even if eventually it cost china a great deal of suffering. If china (or any country) allow the us to do whatever it want, without much if any cost, ultimately the usa will take everything.
Being in the US it feels pretty clear we're going to lose this, but yeah, China's definitely making the right call. It's basically what I was talking about back when
Kwark was trying to convince people Trump winning the election would be a sign of how the US is getting better
Even if people do buy into the childish and reductive "good guy vs bad guy" narratives, China as a competitive peer in a multi-polar world would act as desperately needed check to the US's unending "good guy flavored" invasions, coups, economic/military strong-arming, assassination attempts, ethnic cleansing campaigns, lingering colonialism, etc.
China being a socialist alternative for people around the world is definitely preferable, while also being far from certain imo. The obviously worst possible (yet overwhelmingly favored by westerners) outcome is for China to end up (arguably staying) in a subordinate capitalist role under US dominated hegemonic racial capitalism.
None of that means China is perfect btw, for anyone that needs that disclaimer.
On August 14 2023 16:25 GreenHorizons wrote: I obviously disagree with your perspective/assessment of my perspective, but considering the US is in a statistical coinflip (against someone that literally tried to forcibly and illegally keep power, ostensibly for the first time in US history) for fascism, you might at least want to temper your own confidence about it "getting less shitty".
Trump is awful, of course. But is he historically awful? + Show Spoiler +
The US has had some real monsters in charge. Plus that time it broke into two countries because half of them wanted to own people. Trump mainly just wants to force the media to suck his dick because he’s a narcissist with a gaping void where you’d expect a soul. He’s motivated entirely by ego, he lives for the rallies and the Twitter arguments and the petty name calling. Bush 2 also stole an election and then he killed a quarter million people.
On April 10 2025 19:59 Silvanel wrote: Well. EU tarrfis are paused, while US 10% remain in place... https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn4jjw30d5qt Don't know how I feel about that. On the one hand I like that we are being mature about that, but on the other I dont like being bullied.
Nothing mature about it, Trump got to place 10% blanket tariffs without a reciprocal response. Sad that the world is having to look to China of all places to teach America not to fuck around.
Me: "America has had some truly awful genocidal presidents in the past and so in terms of the historical trend they're actually trending up, not because Trump is good but because the bar used to include literal slaveowners and the people who eradicated the indigenous population"
You: "KwarK said that Trump defeating Clinton was a good thing"
But if you think that's bad then remember the time that you said
GreenHorizons wrote: The Holocaust didn't happen and that makes me sad because I really wish it did
China is calling on the UK to help stand up to Trump's irrational trade policy
China has urged Britain to stand with it in support of international trade as Beijing seeks to rally support in its fight against Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“In the face of the challenges of unilateralism and protectionism, multilateralism is the only solution,” Chinese vice-minister for commerce Ling Ji told Britain’s trade minister, Douglas Alexander, in Beijing on Friday.
“China’s countermeasures against the US are a necessary response to safeguard its own interests. China is ready to work with the UK to support the multilateral trading system, injecting more certainty and stability into the world economy.” Alexander’s visit coincided with the latest trade war announcements from Beijing, which said it would raise the duty on US goods to 125 per cent and dismissed Trump’s tariffs as “a joke”.
Ling and Alexander “exchanged views” on Trump’s measures, according to China’s Commerce Ministry, which added: “Both sides agreed to … strengthen cooperation in trade, investment and supply chains.”
The ministry added that Alexander had said Britain was willing to work with China on free trade, market opening and to “jointly address the current challenges”.
I don't expect a lot from the UK regarding efforts to "jointly address the current challenges", but China just making the ask and the UK giving it lip service is significant.
China is gaining a lot of political capital from the US. As long as Trump is president I think it unlikely any EU member (apart from Hungary) would support his diplomatic policies for free (unless they already hold that stance). Which means anything they want done will cost them more due to less pressure being put on for the policy.
I think it will be interesting to see if in 4 years China has better relations with the EU than the US has. Where they currently dislike China due to multiple issues.
China is showing itself to be a better trade partner. The question is whether that will be enough to over look their horrible record on human rights, terrible damage to the environment, imperialistic intentions and so on are enough to keep them at arms length. As the US speed runs towards China on those fronts, I hope the world decides neither is worth doing business with, but I doubt it. I think short term self interest will rule the day and things won't change as much as we think or hope.
I really wonder what was the US plan with those tariffs against China. It would make more sense if not for the fact that US has moved almost all of its manufacturing abroad. In this tariff-standoff the country with production capabilities will win because they have an option to sell their stuff somewhere else whereas if you're only a consumer there is no good out for you.
Also, China has been preparing for this scenario for years now. They've reduced their exports to the US by 25% and to other G7 countries by almost 30% in the past 5 years.
There are some interesting developments though. Don't want to spew some conspiracy theories but it seems to me that maybe CIA is involved somehow. In the recent days there have been numerous fires at Chinese factories/manufacturing facilities, several of them happened on the same day which would point to a more concerted effort than random disgruntled employee taking revenge on their workplace.
I sincerely believe there was no plan, he and they are just making it up as they go along. Even the MAGA are having hard time making up reasons why these things make sense. And Trump using words like "instinctively" on how he's picking an choosing does not give me any confidence.
I would doubt the CIA would be that bold. Maybe it is just revolutionary's who are sick of billionaires getting richer, off their slave labour and horrible working conditions?
On April 14 2025 01:41 Billyboy wrote: I sincerely believe there was no plan, he and they are just making it up as they go along. Even the MAGA are having hard time making up reasons why these things make sense. And Trump using words like "instinctively" on how he's picking an choosing does not give me any confidence.
I would doubt the CIA would be that bold. Maybe it is just revolutionary's who are sick of billionaires getting richer, off their slave labour and horrible working conditions?
If this trade war triggered another revolution in China this would really be a crazy decade... Basically a dramatic upheaval of the current world order.
What could potentially happen: 1. Russia collapse. 2. US another great depression. 3. Revolution in China.
3 global superpowers going through serious internal turmoil. We would indeed be living in "interesting times."
On April 14 2025 01:41 Billyboy wrote: I sincerely believe there was no plan, he and they are just making it up as they go along. Even the MAGA are having hard time making up reasons why these things make sense. And Trump using words like "instinctively" on how he's picking an choosing does not give me any confidence.
I would doubt the CIA would be that bold. Maybe it is just revolutionary's who are sick of billionaires getting richer, off their slave labour and horrible working conditions?
If this trade war triggered another revolution in China this would really be a crazy decade... Basically a dramatic upheaval of the current world order.
It would be, I think it is as unlikely as it triggering one in America. But we seem to have "once in a generation" events at least annually now a days so who knows.
China has urged Britain to stand with it in support of international trade as Beijing seeks to rally support in its fight against Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“In the face of the challenges of unilateralism and protectionism, multilateralism is the only solution,” Chinese vice-minister for commerce Ling Ji told Britain’s trade minister, Douglas Alexander, in Beijing on Friday.
“China’s countermeasures against the US are a necessary response to safeguard its own interests. China is ready to work with the UK to support the multilateral trading system, injecting more certainty and stability into the world economy.” Alexander’s visit coincided with the latest trade war announcements from Beijing, which said it would raise the duty on US goods to 125 per cent and dismissed Trump’s tariffs as “a joke”.
Ling and Alexander “exchanged views” on Trump’s measures, according to China’s Commerce Ministry, which added: “Both sides agreed to … strengthen cooperation in trade, investment and supply chains.”
The ministry added that Alexander had said Britain was willing to work with China on free trade, market opening and to “jointly address the current challenges”.
I don't expect a lot from the UK regarding efforts to "jointly address the current challenges", but China just making the ask and the UK giving it lip service is significant.
Maybe they're ticked off about the Scunthorpe steel mill situation?
The only way this could get worse for China is if other countries implement anti dumping tariffs when China inevitably floods their markets with stuff the USA isn't touching.Pretty decent chance.
Funny how so many here are all like china is winning.
There’s tons of videos on WeChat where orders are being pushed back to non specific date or cancelling the order in production etc with vessels not leaving the docks.
manufacturing relies heavily on leverage and debt, its high capital investment (debt) and running cost (cash flow). This hurts China far more than the US.
The entire supply chain China been building will be massively disrupted with just one or two major parts of the chain having issue. We are talking about industrial zones that have schools and public services build up for the area.
Private companies have far more powerful in settling what the final changes would be like. They are not going to wait out just for a “maybe better” or wait till trump finishes his terms. Even if the tariff thing is renegotiated, everyone knows China is being targeted and will diversify.
China has unique advantages in manufacturing, but there are lots of parts that can be done elsewhere,
I am seeing so many wrong info videos like all the tariff will be paid by US taxpayers. how much of tariff will get passed down is upto the companies get it out of their profits and how much they can squeeze from the suppliers and middlemen, switch certain parts and split across the global customers pricing (if they choose to do so)
People who think China is going to win don't mean short term. They just know that something like a trade war takes discipline, thoughtfulness, the willingness to let your population suffer to some degree and so on. Trump has none of these, all he is accomplishing is making the USA a less trust worth trade partner than China, and everyone knows Trump is going to back down to China because he and his base won't be able to deal with prices doubling, tripling or more.
China is a totalitarian dictatorship, they give few fucks what happens to their populace, just their own massive wealth (which will be fine) and the long term glory of China.
Belief in the US as a force for good falls. The proportion saying America will have an overall positive influence on world affairs has fallen in 26 out of 29 countries over the last six months. Today, almost two in three (46% on average across the 29 countries) say the US will have a positive influence, down from 59% who said the same in Sept/Oct 2024, prior to the presidential election.
The reputation of the US plummets in Canada. Only six months ago 52% of Canadians saw the US as a positive influencer; now only 19% feel the same. This 33-point fall is the largest recorded for any country. While ratings of the US did also fall among its northern neighbour during the first Trump term, this is the lowest score we have recorded for Canada since we started tracking this question in 2015.
The divided state of America. More than eight in ten (85%) Republicans currently predict their country will have a positive impact, compared to just 45% of Democrats. For Americans overall, 63% now think the US will have a positive impact on the world, which is the lowest figure we have recorded for the country in the last decade.
China is now seen as a more positive influence than the US. It’s the first time this has been the case during the ten years we have tracked this question. Across the 29 countries covered, an average of 49% say China will have positive effect on world affairs, up 10 points on six months ago. Israel and Iran remain the countries least likely to be seen as having a positive influence on the international arena. Iran’s score has however improved over the last six months, as have those of China, Pakistan, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
I guess being sensible and reasonable is more valued once you get out of the US.
Say what you want about China's awful domestic policies, on the international stage they are definitely sensible and usually fairly reasonable.
It‘s safe to assume that unlike in the US (and even Europe sometimes) they assign people to roles according to their skills.
It‘s hard to know what China does at home. I don‘t think they have to pay much heed to international regulations when it comes to technology and minorities.
Why is that safe to assume? This may have been true in China in the 2010s, but the last few reshuffles, Xi has been appointing people who are probably not bad at their job, but the primary criteria has seemingly been loyalty (to him, not the party). Obviously nobody as insanely unqualified as the entire cabinet in this Trump government, but that is a rather unique low point.
But this is probably not the thread to discuss China's policy.
Because when you have the population of China and a semi-communist regime, the odds of finding a competent person for a position and it being filled by someone with actual skill are higher.
Of course they‘re loyalists. If you‘re the party leader you don‘t fill positions with people who dislike you or the party.
Trump‘s trying to run the US like the CCP, but he fills positions with corrupt rich bozos.
Exactly this. Read up on how it works in China. Goverment positions at lower levels are cut throat. Once you get to being a somewhat higher level of management you might be the mayor of a small town of a million people. And the party expects results. Xi might pick loyalists but the talent pool is olympic high diving deep compared to the kiddie pool of US politics.
Going to be interesting to see as China starts to be increasingly be viewed as the "lesser evil" globally, whether their politics (and their functionality) get more attention, and how much of the standard "Yeah, sure, they do horrible stuff but we need them" will transfer from the US to China. Also how much of the "yeah they do good stuff, but they are terrible to their own population" will transfer to the US.
Well I assume India is happy as long as this continues since they are the primary partner in that region for relabeling goods. Russian oil has been an example for years now.
There has also been consistent rumors on the US backing down. Which means China will feel secure to just wait the US out. If that is leaked on purpose because they want this to continue while the US says they are in negotiations and China says they are not is a bit of a strange plan. Though Trump admin does strange things all the time where the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing due to quick shifts.
Turns out the US is dependent on China to maintain its military industrial complex.
The Middle East war has depleted a key part of the United States’ missile defense system in the region. To rebuild, the U.S. needs to go through China.
In just over a month of war, Iran has targeted several U.S. radar units spread across the region, cutting-edge defensive weapons that are used to detect and shoot down incoming missiles and drones. Military experts believe many have been damaged, if not destroyed. A key component of those interceptors is gallium, a critical mineral that is also used in other high-tech products like semiconductors.
China has a near total monopoly over the processing of gallium. And it has already proven willing to limit access. Increased U.S. demand for the metal to rebuild its interceptors — a process that will take years — only strengthens Beijing’s hand in the upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“Broadly does it make us more vulnerable? Yes, I think so,” said Mikhail Zeldovich, an investor focused on critical minerals. “I don’t think there’s any doubt there.”
Already, prices for gallium have increased by 32 percent in the past month, after months of lower prices following an Oct. 30 agreement between the U.S. and China. The negotiations were sparked in part by China’s near total control over the processing of critical minerals, including gallium, leverage the country used to cut off supply and force the U.S. to the negotiating table.
If the demand for critical minerals increases as the U.S. attempts to restock its weapons cache, it would only strengthen China’s hand.
“The minute you look like a demander and there’s things you want, then this relationship is at that point where the other side, then, is smelling leverage, right?” said Wendy Cutler, a former USTR negotiator. “And so [Beijing] can up their demands.”
From what I can tell they are primarily using this leverage to force the US to give up proprietary tech in exchange. Trump blowing his load on Iran probably means they can demand quite a bit more though. Also probably means the threat of US intervention with Taiwan has lost a little umph. Hence the meeting between Xi Jinping and Cheng Li-wun.
EPT
