On October 20 2022 21:26 pmh wrote: The US is anticipating a faster timeline for China when it comes to Taiwan. The goal is probably within the next 5 years,initially anticipating 2027 and now considering 2023 or even 2022.
3 days old story. Ww3 or whatever it will be called in history books has already started. Everyone is just waiting untill the inevitable happens (with inevitable i dont mean nuclear war by the way,ww3 could be conventional). Maybe i misjudge the situation,i can only hope so.
WW3 couldn’t be conventional. The only powers capable of projection on a scale needed for there to be a world war are nuclear.
On October 20 2022 21:26 pmh wrote: The US is anticipating a faster timeline for China when it comes to Taiwan. The goal is probably within the next 5 years,initially anticipating 2027 and now considering 2023 or even 2022.
3 days old story. Ww3 or whatever it will be called in history books has already started. Everyone is just waiting untill the inevitable happens (with inevitable i dont mean nuclear war by the way,ww3 could be conventional). Maybe i misjudge the situation,i can only hope so.
China attacking Taiwan in 2022 is just click bait, there is no way the PLA can attack Taiwan in 2022. The hardware are not ready, let alone software / manpower and other aspect. Fighting a real life war is not like playing RTS, no one can just press a button and expect to win.
Whether China want to attack Taiwan much earlier than 2027 is another matter. I guess it will be more to do with Russia-Ukraine war, and the chip development, and may be (if any) deal(s) with other countries. But I am no expert in this area, so I will try to refrain from commenting too much on this issue.
As for WW3, we might already be in one, given how much resources Russia, USA, NATO etc had thrown into the Russia-Ukraine war. Also, for the past few years, the USA (and its subordinates) more or less waged a full on cold war on China, all we are missing is a full scale military clash in the pacific region to formally declare WW3.
Why talk about WW3? Both Russia and the US have had terrible and recent experiences with war. China is a regime whose mandate for power lies as a guarantist for stability for a population still haunted with the chaos under Mao.
A full scale war is a threat to that stability, so they stay out of them.
On October 21 2022 00:29 Slydie wrote: Why talk about WW3? Both Russia and the US have had terrible and recent experiences with war. China is a regime whose mandate for power lies as a guarantist for stability for a population still haunted with the chaos under Mao.
A full scale war is a threat to that stability, so they stay out of them.
Yet they scream and yell about how they're going to start a war to take Taiwan. Everyone expects them to try for it in the next decade. They tell their people how they're going to take back taiwan. They make movies just like America has done for war propaganda.
The problem isn't that they don't want war its that they think the other side won't want war. They think that they'll be able to take taiwan and that the USA isn't going to honor its treaties by defending it. Just like Putin thought that he would be able to take Kyiv in 3 days and that Zelensky would flee. They think that the capitalist world order would value stable world trade over defending Taiwan.
On October 21 2022 00:29 Slydie wrote: Why talk about WW3? Both Russia and the US have had terrible and recent experiences with war. China is a regime whose mandate for power lies as a guarantist for stability for a population still haunted with the chaos under Mao.
A full scale war is a threat to that stability, so they stay out of them.
Yet they scream and yell about how they're going to start a war to take Taiwan. Everyone expects them to try for it in the next decade. They tell their people how they're going to take back taiwan. They make movies just like America has done for war propaganda.
It is the only right thing to do. Taiwan and the US are perfect distractions from dramatic domestic problems, like COVID used as a terribly expensive excuse for more surveillance and the incoming real estate collapse.
Xi Jinpings predecessor Hu Jintao got escorted out of the party congress today. In the video you can see he doesn't want to leave at all. Lots of speculation on the reason.
Take this with a mountain of salt but my guess is that Xi did this to show the party elders he won't accept any interference and to get rid of a rival faction.
Chinese former President Hu Jintao was unexpectedly escorted out of the closing ceremony of a congress of the ruling Communist Party on Saturday.
Hu, 79, Xi Jinping's immediate predecessor, was seated to the left of Xi. He was led off the stage of the main auditorium of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing by two stewards, a Reuters witness at the congress said.
Video footage published by AFP showed a steward repeatedly trying to lift Hu from his seat, drawing concerned looks from officials seated nearby. Hu then put his hand on a sheet of paper placed on Xi's folder but Xi quickly put his hand on the sheet.
The new Politburo standing committee is introduced. Key takeaways: - No clear successor to Xi - Only Xi loyalists - All the relative moderates are out and the conservatives / hardliners are left.
BEIJING, Oct 23 (Reuters) - China's Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third leadership term on Sunday and introduced a new top governing body stacked with loyalists, cementing his place as the country's most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong.
Shanghai Communist Party chief Li Qiang, 63, followed Xi onto the stage at the Great Hall of the People as the new Politburo Standing Committee was introduced, putting him in line to succeed Li Keqiang as premier when he retires in
The other members of the seven-man Standing Committee are Zhao Leji and Wang Huning, who return from the previous committee, and newcomers Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang and Li Xi. Li Qiang is also new to the Standing Committee.
All are seen by analysts to have close allegiance to Xi, 69, the son of a Communist Party revolutionary who has taken China in a more authoritarian direction since rising to power in 2012.
"This is a leadership that will be focused on achieving Xi’s political goals, rather than pursuing their own agendas for what they think is best for the country," said Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. "There is only one correct way to govern, and that is Xi’s way."
The unveiling of the Standing Committee and the larger 24-member Politburo comes a day after the closing of the ruling Communist Party's 20th Congress, where amendments were added to the party charter cementing the core status of Xi and the guiding role of his political thought within the party.
...
CONSPICUOUS ABSENCES
The unveiling comes a day after Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, seen by analysts as relative moderates that were young enough to serve longer in top decision-making bodies, were excluded from the wider Central Committee. Both have ties with the Communist Youth League, a once-influential group that experts say has lost power under Xi.
Another conspicuous absence from Sunday's unveiling was Hu Chunhua, a vice premier who had been considered by some party-watchers as a candidate for the premiership and who also has Youth League roots. Hu, 59, was not chosen to return to the Politburo, which now has 24 members, one fewer than usual.
Also missing from the Politburo: any women. The lone woman on the last Politburo, Sun Chunlan, retired.
Recently there have been plenty of violent protests regarding the 0 COVID policy, with people being outraged at all the lockdowns and other bullshit. It seems that now it has reached the tipping point where people of China have had enough. They were really stumped when they saw footage from the World Cup with thousands of cheering fans, none of whom were wearing masks etc. It went against everything the CCP were telling them, that everywhere outside of China people are suffering horribly due to COVID and only China is safe due to their strict policies. It probably wasn't the main contributor but I would assume that it could provide this one more spark that tipped the scales.
Anyway, all across China there are now protests that are unprecedented since Tiananmen square, where people are for the first time attacking the Chinese government directly, shouting for Xi Jinping to step down, CCP to go eff itself etc. Government officials are being abducted from the government buildings, police stations are being torn down, people are in the streets everywhere, from big cities like Shanghai and Beijing to even small towns all across China. Police and PLA (army) have been deployed to quell the protests.
This is absolutely massive. I wonder how it'll develop but we need to keep a close eye on it.
Recently there have been plenty of violent protests regarding the 0 COVID policy, with people being outraged at all the lockdowns and other bullshit. It seems that now it has reached the tipping point where people of China have had enough. They were really stumped when they saw footage from the World Cup with thousands of cheering fans, none of whom were wearing masks etc. It went against everything the CCP were telling them, that everywhere outside of China people are suffering horribly due to COVID and only China is safe due to their strict policies. It probably wasn't the main contributor but I would assume that it could provide this one more spark that tipped the scales.
Anyway, all across China there are now protests that are unprecedented since Tiananmen square, where people are for the first time attacking the Chinese government directly, shouting for Xi Jinping to step down, CCP to go eff itself etc. Government officials are being abducted from the government buildings, police stations are being torn down, people are in the streets everywhere, from big cities like Shanghai and Beijing to even small towns all across China. Police and PLA (army) have been deployed to quell the protests.
This is absolutely massive. I wonder how it'll develop but we need to keep a close eye on it.
Well, lies and deception can only get them so far. However, I'm pessimistic that anything substantial will come out of this. Communists are known for brutality, so they'll likely crack down on protests.
On November 27 2022 22:09 xM(Z wrote: they showed (couple)hundreds of people max? ...; where are the tens(hundreds, upper estimates) of thousands to rival Tienanmen?.
You have to keep in mind that this all pretty much started today/yesterday. Couple of hundred of people protesting in dozens of places all across the country gives you thousands in total. We'll have to wait and see, it's probably not that easy to get an accurate footage from China anyway, especially if what they're saying is true in that the police are bringing jammers to the scene, disabling people's phones so no footage or messages can be shared. And that's on top of their standard censoring and filtration.
In any case, hundreds of people in all the major cities and in smaller towns too is no small protest.
On November 27 2022 22:09 xM(Z wrote: they showed (couple)hundreds of people max? ...; where are the tens(hundreds, upper estimates) of thousands to rival Tienanmen?.
Yes, people forget that the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong had more than two million participants back in mid 2019. Oddly enough, COVID-19 kicking off in early 2020 was the thing that stopped those huge protests in their tracks. Hong Kong is in a far worse state now than it was three years ago sadly.
They will blame the protests for spreading the virus, everyone knows the playbook by now.Hopefully the protesters don't get taken to those huge quarantine camps they've constructed, who knows what will happen.
So, most people don't know but there's been horrific flooding in China this past weekend. Beijing was swallowed by water, bridges collapsing and even the Forbidden City has been flooded for the first time in 140 years.
Footage coming out from there is absolutely horrifying. CCP states that there are 27 people missing and 11 killed or something ridiculous like that but judging from the snippets I think the casualties are definitely in the thousands if not millions. Beijing is a city of 22 million people and when you have flood water come in as high as 6m, considering their poor drainage and taking into account past floods where thousands of people died just from being in the underground tunnel in their car the fallout from this will be massive. There are pictures of submarines being thrown onto the shore, whole trucks and busses being swept by water and other nightmares like that. I don't even want to think what happened in the metro and underground tunnels this time around...
Millions of people displaced as numerous villages get flooded. Some of them got flooded on purpose as they were used to discharge water from Beijing.
I do wonder what might be the fallout after it's all over. So many families without homes, food shortages, sickness... I'm also trying to dig up some reports on how crops might've been affected because it'll be harvest season soon and if a lot of crops have been destroyed it might be a very harsh year for China.
The Social Credit system that is often fear mongered about in Western media is just that: fear mongering.
In a new video by Ed, popular myths about China’s social credit “system” are debunked, and clarity is given to its actual origins and nature. Revealing that it is not top-down, authoritarian, or invasive, but is instead a popular reform supported by the people to reign in illegal and poor business practices. Breaking down the popular, local, and decentralized way in which social credit works in China. Showing that continuous feedback from the people informs the way in which social credit works in any given province.
On August 08 2023 10:37 captainwaffles wrote: The Social Credit system that is often fear mongered about in Western media is just that: fear mongering.
In a new video by Ed, popular myths about China’s social credit “system” are debunked, and clarity is given to its actual origins and nature. Revealing that it is not top-down, authoritarian, or invasive, but is instead a popular reform supported by the people to reign in illegal and poor business practices. Breaking down the popular, local, and decentralized way in which social credit works in China. Showing that continuous feedback from the people informs the way in which social credit works in any given province.
I'm not sure I'd trust a channel that has videos like "The Democratic Legacy of Stalin" and "Proof that Stalin and Mao were libertarians". Dude even describes himself as libertarian stalinist, which is mind-boggling to say the least.
If you want to see an objective evaluation of the freedom Chinese people experience in their own country, just take a quick look at the freedom rating China receives on Freedom House and compare it to other countries. In 2022, China ranks 9/100 while Germany ranks 94/100 and the US ranks 83/100. This low score for China results from a (NEGATIVE!!!) -2/40 score on political rights and 11/60 on civil liberties.
EPT
