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On April 21 2022 23:59 JimmiC wrote:
Kasparov who is often critical is saying that if Putin does not win this war it will be a palace coup as the other power brokers will want to keep their status and need a scapegoat. He says this will keep Putin all in on Ukraine maybe elsewhere, even if it does not make sense.
I think he has some good points but I also think if Putin can finish taking the spots they have in Eastern Ukraine they can claim victory. They will have the land access to Crimeria, have knocked the resk of Ukraine back so it will be a long time before they can compete with Russians in quality of life and can claim they denazified since that was made up to begin with.
If they strike the right treaty and many if not all the sanctions go away because our politicans know we are not willing to sacrifice our quality of life. On top of that local parties will jump on the chance to ignore the global realities and blame their opponents for higher gas, food and so on costs.
I sadly think because of the rest of us have such self interest and short sightedness Putin can still "win" while doing terrible militarily.
Putin can't claim a win until he destroys Ukraine completely. Zelensky already said he's not going to enter any deals that would include Ukraine ceding any territory to Russia. If anything he wants Donbas and Crimea back.
Russia has to win big and quick, otherwise they're facing years of grueling warfare, for which they don't have stamina. Russia has pretty much already lost this war because even if they can conquer all of Ukraine a lot of their military might has been spent, which makes them vulnerable, their economy is in shambles and will probably take decades to recover, they lost A LOT of international goodwill and options. Personally I don't really see Russia "winning" anything in this conflict any more. They can win some battles, but they've already lost the war.
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Spain has announced they are sending 200 tons of equipment and ammunition to Ukraine.
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How expensive/hard to produce are those bombs being used by Russia to level Ukrainian neighborhoods? It's shocking how destructive they are so my mind automatically thinks they're expensive but I have no idea. I wonder how easily replaced that stuff is and how much they have stockpiled.
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On April 22 2022 02:53 Starlightsun wrote:
How expensive/hard to produce are those bombs being used by Russia to level Ukrainian neighborhoods? It's shocking how destructive they are so my mind automatically thinks they're expensive but I have no idea. I wonder how easily replaced that stuff is and how much they have stockpiled.
Do you have any specific bombs in mind? Grad rockets are relatively cheap. Russia shouldn't have problems with maintaining their production even if this war lasts for years.
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On April 22 2022 03:36 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2022 02:53 Starlightsun wrote:
How expensive/hard to produce are those bombs being used by Russia to level Ukrainian neighborhoods? It's shocking how destructive they are so my mind automatically thinks they're expensive but I have no idea. I wonder how easily replaced that stuff is and how much they have stockpiled. Do you have any specific bombs in mind? Grad rockets are relatively cheap. Russia shouldn't have problems with maintaining their production even if this war lasts for years.
I don't know any specifically, just had a hope that maybe they couldn't keep up bombardment indefinitely. It's amazing to me the amount of destruction on the ground from whatever they have been using.
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Some people have been saying that if Putin orders the Russian army to retreat, that'd be his demise. How would that happen? Would a successful coup really become so much more likely than it is now?
I think the motive of Putin's followers who'd want to see him gone is mainly economic. They want to preserve their overseas assets and so they'd have very little reason to try to get rid of Putin if he were to end the war and attempted to rebuild international relations.
Lets presume for a moment that Putin was acting on my rationale and not his own. Then he'd pull out immediately and promise not to attack Ukraine or other countries again. He'd play the angry dictator role, but without showing meaningful aggression towards other countries. This would likely appease his followers as they'd be able to rebuild their economic ties. Since he's in power, he can save face by "forgiving" his inner circle for "having failed him and the Russian people". He could claim the role of a merciful leader. He's also guaranteed to remain in power for a few more decades, so there's no political persecution that he'd have to be afraid of.
But in reality my perspective is that Putin probably doesn't believe his life to be in greater danger either way. Also, he's one of the best protected men in the world. For comparison, there were more than 600 failed assassination attempts on Fidel Castro by the CIA. I don't think Putin's worries are in regards to his personal safety.
So I think the reason why he continues his war efforts is mainly because he's hungry for power and he's delusional about his chances in Ukraine. The damage of failure would be mostly to his ego. Yes, I believe this man is driven entirely by his severely wounded ego, so he's fine with delivering great pain for its own sake, because he feels wronged by the world. This would be in line with the thinking of a psychopath, as they tend to get very angry and resentful when they lose, especially against what they thought is an inferior enemy. To me this seems to be all about his pride.
The reason why I think this matters is because Putin doesn't appear to act on the same rationale as most people would. He's exceptionally unempathetic and that means we have to adjust our perception of him. The reason why he's not willing to have peace talks is because he was never interested in peace in the first place. To him, war is just another part of (his attempts at) global domination.
The following is more speculative, but I suspect that Putin is also a sadistic man, which would add more incentive to continue the war, because I think he enjoys his brutality against innocent people (including that of Russian people).
I believe this whole line of thinking would explain his actions far better than him being worried about his own safety. He's lived a life of thrills. I'd much rather guess he's addicted to the challenge. Psychopaths get bored very, very quickly.
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On April 22 2022 04:09 Magic Powers wrote:
The following is more speculative, but I suspect that Putin is also a sadistic man, which would add more incentive to continue the war, because I think he enjoys his brutality against innocent people (including that of Russian people).
There are some rumors circulating that there's an ongoing witch hunt among the top brass of the military ordered by Putin who got furious when the generals told him they wanted to withdraw from this war.
And there's this "mysterious" death of the Russian Oligarch and his family that looks like it was takes straight out of Jason Bourne movie: https://www.newsweek.com/russian-oligarch-family-dead-spain-1699660
Investigators are reportedly trying to figure out whether the incident was a domestic murder-suicide or an organized hit. Their bodies were discovered just one day after another Russian gas boss was found dead in similar circumstances alongside his family in Moscow.
Spanish news website El Punt Avui reported the bodies of Sergey Protosenya, 55, his wife and his daughter were found at around 4 p.m. on Tuesday, April 19 at their home in the seaside resort of Lloret de Mar in Spain's Catalonia region.
It's now 2 oligarchs in a row who suddenly went on to kill their wife and daughter before committing suicide...
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On April 22 2022 02:21 Lmui wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2022 00:32 Ghanburighan wrote:
US sends 72 howitzers this time. And drones similar to switchblade specially developed to match UA needs.
The drones have pretty much zero information publicly available. I assume we'll get information in the next month as to what they actually are once videos from ukraine come out. My guess though, is a middle ground between the small and big switchblades. You need more boom than a hand grenade, but not a full on Javelin warhead, which is enough to disable lightly armoured vehicles like BMPs, or artillery.
My guess is that specifically developed for Ukrainian needs simply means lesser capability in superfluous areas, perhaps in loitering time and range, or otherwise changed to be more easily produced in greater numbers.
On April 22 2022 02:53 Starlightsun wrote:
How expensive/hard to produce are those bombs being used by Russia to level Ukrainian neighborhoods? It's shocking how destructive they are so my mind automatically thinks they're expensive but I have no idea. I wonder how easily replaced that stuff is and how much they have stockpiled. Should be easy to replace, dumb artillery shells are basic military technology and despite the level of devastation, it's not like they are throwing WW1 or WW2 levels of artillery. A shell should cost less than a normal assault rifle. Not sure what you mean by bombs, since it is mostly artillery the Russians are using.
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On April 22 2022 05:39 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Should be easy to replace, dumb artillery shells are basic military technology and despite the level of devastation, it's not like they are throwing WW1 or WW2 levels of artillery. A shell should cost less than a normal assault rifle. Not sure what you mean by bombs, since it is mostly artillery the Russians are using.
I think he was referring to some cold-war era bombs dropped on the steel plant in Mariupol in recent days. Those were some pretty big bombs (some sources claim it's the biggest bomb you can get without straying from the conventional warfare).
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On April 22 2022 05:39 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2022 02:53 Starlightsun wrote:
How expensive/hard to produce are those bombs being used by Russia to level Ukrainian neighborhoods? It's shocking how destructive they are so my mind automatically thinks they're expensive but I have no idea. I wonder how easily replaced that stuff is and how much they have stockpiled. Should be easy to replace, dumb artillery shells are basic military technology and despite the level of devastation, it's not like they are throwing WW1 or WW2 levels of artillery. A shell should cost less than a normal assault rifle. Not sure what you mean by bombs, since it is mostly artillery the Russians are using.
Yeah I guess I meant artillery... the stuff they've been using that blows the walls off entire apartment buildings. That's disheartening to hear that they can keep that up for years.
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On April 22 2022 05:39 Dangermousecatdog wrote:My guess is that specifically developed for Ukrainian needs simply means lesser capability in superfluous areas, perhaps in loitering time and range, or otherwise changed to be more easily produced in greater numbers.
New info from the Politico.
The drone can take off vertically, fly for six-plus hours searching for or tracking a target, and operate at night using its infrared sensors, Deptula said. Phoenix Ghost has a longer loitering capability than the Switchblade, which can fly for less than an hour, he said.
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On April 22 2022 05:35 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +Investigators are reportedly trying to figure out whether the incident was a domestic murder-suicide or an organized hit. Their bodies were discovered just one day after another Russian gas boss was found dead in similar circumstances alongside his family in Moscow.
Spanish news website El Punt Avui reported the bodies of Sergey Protosenya, 55, his wife and his daughter were found at around 4 p.m. on Tuesday, April 19 at their home in the seaside resort of Lloret de Mar in Spain's Catalonia region. It's now 2 oligarchs in a row who suddenly went on to kill their wife and daughter before committing suicide...
Just for completeness' sake: in this twitter thread, 4 Oligarchs are listed who fit that description, linking to respective news articles about the cases. I have no means of estimating how reliable the ruscrime.com articles are. The url itself seems like it might have a certain bias to it.. 
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Another day another threat. This time with a mention of Stalin.
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I wasn't going to post about it at first, but the evidence is mounting of a wave of sabotage across Russia:
(This is a bridge to Crimea)
I wouldn't know how to begin to speculate about what's going on.
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Along with 5 enlistment offices.
As many as five Russian military enlistment offices have been set on fire since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, independent Russian media reported Thursday.
The latest incident took place in the remote Mordovia region Monday, according to the 7x7 news website. Molotov cocktails destroyed several computers and a database of conscripts in the Zubova Polyana settlement.
"The recruitment campaign in the [local] districts was put on pause," media outlet iStories reported.
In March, local residents damaged military enlistment offices in the Voronezh, Sverdlovsk and Ivanovo regions with Molotov cocktails. Young men subsequently detained in Sverdlovsk and Ivanovo said they sought to disrupt the recruitment campaign in protest of Russia's war in Ukraine.
Four days after Russian troops entered Ukraine, a 21-year-old set fire to the enlistment office in the Moscow region town of Lukhovitsy. He said he wanted to destroy archives to prevent mobilization.
Those who have been detained face criminal charges ranging from property damage to attempted murder and terrorism.
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Russian Federation20 Posts
The main thing I've heard on the matter is about the extremely low number of conscripts in the recruitment campaign that started at 1st of April
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China is ending it's payment system cooperation with Russia.
Russia’s RBC news outlet reported earlier this week that UnionPay, China’s largest payment processing service, ended its operations in Russia over concerns that continuing to work in the country could lead it to run afoul of Western sanctions. For Russia, this cuts off a potential alternative to U.S.-based payment processors, such as Visa and Mastercard, that withdrew from the country in the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
UnionPay’s withdrawal primarily affects Sberbank, Russia’s largest commercial bank, although RBC noted that smaller banks, including Alfa Bank and Promsvyazbank, would also be negatively affected by the withdrawal of service. The report cited five anonymous officials within Russia’s banking sector, although it did not identify which banks they worked for.
Prior to the Russian invasion, Sberbank had worked with Visa and Mastercard to provide credit services to Russian customers. However, both countries pulled out of Russia immediately after the announcement of the “special military operation,” leaving Russian banks scrambling to find alternatives.
Although Russian credit cards do not work outside Russia, and foreign credit cards do not work within Russia, Russians could continue to use their credit cards for domestic purchases, with authentication provided by Russian banks. In the aftermath of the invasion, however, Russia’s major banks immediately moved to switch to UnionPay, according to Reuters.
UnionPay’s decision to withdraw from Russia was motivated by a fear that the company could be affected by “secondary sanctions,” according to the Russian network. Secondary sanctions, an extension of primary sanctions directly affecting a hostile country, restrict the ability of third countries to trade with the hostile country. For instance, China largely refrained from trade with Iran prior to the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal over concerns that Chinese companies could become the target of sanctions if they continued to conduct business in Iranian markets.
Since 2015, UnionPay has been the largest payment processing system in the world, but the overwhelming majority of its users live in China, with limited accessibility abroad. As both Russia and China’s relations with the United States have become more strained, Moscow and Beijing have grown closer together. The two countries’ leaders declared during the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing that the Sino-Russian partnership had “no limits.”
However, China has constrained its reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has refused to condone Moscow’s actions. Although Chinese media outlets have echoed Russian claims that NATO provoked the war, Beijing has abstained from most Russia-related United Nations votes and called for an end to the conflict.
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EPT
