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On April 25 2022 00:37 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The passage about Putin believing what he sees on Russian TV is very reminiscent of Donald Trump. Both are leaders heavily relying on a strong propaganda apparatus that start to believe their own deceptions in some weird feedback loop of lies.
At least i’m pretty sure Hitler knew Goebbel was lying.
I don't think that's the example to use. Hitler had a Jewish friend that survived the war to reintegrate into society but he still killed millions of them.
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Hitler was Jewish himself. Let's start with that. At least there's been such rumors, which might influence his decisions (his father being the illegitimate child of a Jew).
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Hitler was delusional at the end of 44.
He couldn't bear the bad news and thus didn't believe what he was told and found culprits for the bad news when there were none.
He believed every word he wrote in mein Kampf though, as far as I'm aware
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I repent from bringing up Hitler. Please, forgive me.
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The US Secretary of State is in Ukraine right now.
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Looks like Ukraine might start doing massive build-up near Dondas with the all toys they got... unless their loses are so catastrophic that they had use all of this for replenishements.
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Would not be surprised if Moldova invites French, and maybe even Spanish troops to station there are help reform their military (helps that those are the furthest EU nations which would ease certain parties domestically). Either that or UN troops to police certain contested areas.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials on Sunday discussed the possibility of Russian President Vladimir Putin expanding his invasion from the Donbas region of southeastern Ukraine into the neighboring nation of Moldova — another former Soviet state and non-NATO member in Eastern Europe.
“I think where they go from here remains to be seen,” deputy national security adviser Jon Finer told NBC’s “Meet the Press” in an interview, referring to Russian forces. “But they are a long way from cities like Odesa” — the Black Sea port city in southern Ukraine — “and certainly from Moldova.”
Russian forces “have a lot of fighting still to do,” Finer added, “and we think the Ukrainians are going to be very effective in fending them off.”
Pressed on how the Biden administration’s wartime strategy would change if Russia began making moves toward Moldova, Finer responded that the United States has “shown an ability to be nimble” and “to adjust our assistance and our approach as the Russian war aims have evolved.”
“We will continue to do that over time, depending on how things evolve on the battlefield,” Finer said.
Finer’s remarks came after Russian news agencies reported last Friday that Rustam Minnekayev, the deputy commander of Russia’s central military district, said Russia plans to take full control of the Donbas and the southern part of Ukraine as part of its new offensive in the country.
“Control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transdniestria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed,” Minnekayev reportedly said at a meeting in Russia’s central Sverdlovsk region.
Transdniestria, or Transnistria, is a pro-Russia breakaway region of Moldova, which borders Ukraine to the southwest. Moldova, like Ukraine, was part of the Soviet Union until Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev dissolved the sprawling communist state in 1991.
Minnekayev also reportedly said that Russia plans to establish a land corridor between the Donbas and Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula south of Ukraine that Russia seized and illegally annexed in 2014.
Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration then summoned Oleg Vasnetov, Russia’s ambassador to the country, to express “deep concern” last Friday over Minnekayev’s remarks.
“These statements are unfounded and contradict the position of the Russian Federation supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, within its internationally recognized borders,” the ministry said in a statement.
During the meeting with Vasnetov, “It was reiterated that the Republic of Moldova, in line with its Constitution, is a neutral state and this principle must be respected by all international actors, including the Russian Federation.”
Asked on Sunday about a potential Russian invasion of Moldova, Igor Zhovkva, deputy head of the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told NBC that Russian forces “can move anywhere they want, but they will not, we will not let them do this.”
“The actual war of Russia started in 2014 by capturing the Crimea and part of Donbas. So, yes, now they want to capture the whole Donbas. Yes, they want to have the connection between Donbas and the Crimea,” Zhovkva said.
“As far as the Moldova is concerned, yes, we heard those announcements of Russian officials,” Zhovkva continued. “Who knows? You never know with Russia, but … that could be a high possibility.”
After retreating from around the capital of Kyiv in northern Ukraine earlier this month, Russian forces last Monday launched their anticipated assault in the Donbas, which is home to two breakaway areas largely held by Moscow-backed separatists: the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.
In an address last Friday, Zelenskyy repeated his warning that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “was intended only as a beginning,” and that Putin then intends “to capture other countries.”
“All nations that, like us, believe in the victory of life over death must fight with us. They have to help us, because we are the first on this path. And who is next?” Zelenskyy said. “If anyone who can become next wants to stay neutral today so as not to lose anything, this is the riskiest bet. Because you will lose everything.”
Doug Lute, a retired Army lieutenant general and former U.S. ambassador to NATO, agreed with Zelenskyy’s assessment of Putin’s ambitions on Sunday.
“I think he would like to do that. President Putin would like to do that. He would like to expand the power of Russia in his neighborhood. He would like to recreate something like the old Russian empire,” Lute told ABC’s “This Week” in an interview.
However, such a restoration of the Soviet Union is “not within” Putin’s capabilities, Lute said, adding: “There’s a big gap here between his aims and his means.”
Source
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An oil depot in Bryansk, Russia just went up in flames. I suspect careless smoking.
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I think Germany bashing is not quite right regarding the Ukraine war. There are three arguments circling around:
1. German politicians on the outset of the war assumed Ukraine to be overrun in a few days and were thus not enthusiastic about sending help. The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany reported this.
- This is true, on the other hand most nations expected Kiyv to fall in a few days and what's left after that? This is more of a communication blunder that concerns optics.
2. Germany should cut its imports of energy from Russia. It is directly financing the war!
- That's a tough one since there are multiple analyses with different predictions. I think in essence it wouldn't be too great for a politician to decide to lower GDP right now in a time of inflation (economic insecurity), injuring vital industries like chemicals (and thus pharmaceuticals) and steel right after/ at the end of the COVID hit to the economy and global supply chains. The store I work at is still not able to procure most items in a reasonable time - 2 years after the first lockdown!
3. Germany doesn't send enough weapons and especially heavy weapons.
- Well that is part of true, but from what I am reading Germany doesn't have too many heavy weapons. The Bundeswehr is in shambles and military officers say as much publicly. Does anyone remember pictures of German tank crews holding broomsticks as a replacement for the main guns during joint exercises? That about sums it up. We could give away tanks for sure but replacement isn't coming in for a few years and we have obligations to NATO and to our own self-defense (in case the Danes attack /s). Also procurement of NATO standard machinery was deemed to be of no use to Ukraine for the first 1-2 months of the war since it takes a lot of time to train a tank crew, engineers and the logistics personnel to make use of it efficiently. Now that it seems the conflict will last a lot longer that may be an option.
There are valid reasons for Germanys decisions during the conflict, agree with it or not. Uninviting the German president does nothing for noone. And as for every politician in every country what our Chancellor says is 95% directed to his own electorate (and financial supporters) and 5% to foreign partners. The way Germany bashing pops up again and again I'm convinced that it stems from a combination of scapegoating, Russian trolls and moral superiority complex (this isn't a dig towards Ukrainians, but I guess almost all discussions about the war are done by people from other countries).
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On April 25 2022 17:43 schaf wrote:
I think Germany bashing is not quite right regarding the Ukraine war. There are three arguments circling around:
1. German politicians on the outset of the war assumed Ukraine to be overrun in a few days and were thus not enthusiastic about sending help. The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany reported this.
- This is true, on the other hand most nations expected Kiyv to fall in a few days and what's left after that? This is more of a communication blunder that concerns optics.
2. Germany should cut its imports of energy from Russia. It is directly financing the war!
- That's a tough one since there are multiple analyses with different predictions. I think in essence it wouldn't be too great for a politician to decide to lower GDP right now in a time of inflation (economic insecurity), injuring vital industries like chemicals (and thus pharmaceuticals) and steel right after/ at the end of the COVID hit to the economy and global supply chains. The store I work at is still not able to procure most items in a reasonable time - 2 years after the first lockdown!
3. Germany doesn't send enough weapons and especially heavy weapons.
- Well that is part of true, but from what I am reading Germany doesn't have too many heavy weapons. The Bundeswehr is in shambles and military officers say as much publicly. Does anyone remember pictures of German tank crews holding broomsticks as a replacement for the main guns during joint exercises? That about sums it up. We could give away tanks for sure but replacement isn't coming in for a few years and we have obligations to NATO and to our own self-defense (in case the Danes attack /s). Also procurement of NATO standard machinery was deemed to be of no use to Ukraine for the first 1-2 months of the war since it takes a lot of time to train a tank crew, engineers and the logistics personnel to make use of it efficiently. Now that it seems the conflict will last a lot longer that may be an option.
There are valid reasons for Germanys decisions during the conflict, agree with it or not. Uninviting the German president does nothing for noone. And as for every politician in every country what our Chancellor says is 95% directed to his own electorate (and financial supporters) and 5% to foreign partners. The way Germany bashing pops up again and again I'm convinced that it stems from a combination of scapegoating, Russian trolls and moral superiority complex (this isn't a dig towards Ukrainians, but I guess almost all discussions about the war are done by people from other countries).
Germany did decide to chain itself to Russian fossil fuels, and made little effort to change this even after Crimea.
Regardless of what you want to say about point 2 right now, that's still a valid (and quite serious) criticism.
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United States41982 Posts
On April 25 2022 20:19 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 17:43 schaf wrote:
I think Germany bashing is not quite right regarding the Ukraine war. There are three arguments circling around:
1. German politicians on the outset of the war assumed Ukraine to be overrun in a few days and were thus not enthusiastic about sending help. The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany reported this.
- This is true, on the other hand most nations expected Kiyv to fall in a few days and what's left after that? This is more of a communication blunder that concerns optics.
2. Germany should cut its imports of energy from Russia. It is directly financing the war!
- That's a tough one since there are multiple analyses with different predictions. I think in essence it wouldn't be too great for a politician to decide to lower GDP right now in a time of inflation (economic insecurity), injuring vital industries like chemicals (and thus pharmaceuticals) and steel right after/ at the end of the COVID hit to the economy and global supply chains. The store I work at is still not able to procure most items in a reasonable time - 2 years after the first lockdown!
3. Germany doesn't send enough weapons and especially heavy weapons.
- Well that is part of true, but from what I am reading Germany doesn't have too many heavy weapons. The Bundeswehr is in shambles and military officers say as much publicly. Does anyone remember pictures of German tank crews holding broomsticks as a replacement for the main guns during joint exercises? That about sums it up. We could give away tanks for sure but replacement isn't coming in for a few years and we have obligations to NATO and to our own self-defense (in case the Danes attack /s). Also procurement of NATO standard machinery was deemed to be of no use to Ukraine for the first 1-2 months of the war since it takes a lot of time to train a tank crew, engineers and the logistics personnel to make use of it efficiently. Now that it seems the conflict will last a lot longer that may be an option.
There are valid reasons for Germanys decisions during the conflict, agree with it or not. Uninviting the German president does nothing for noone. And as for every politician in every country what our Chancellor says is 95% directed to his own electorate (and financial supporters) and 5% to foreign partners. The way Germany bashing pops up again and again I'm convinced that it stems from a combination of scapegoating, Russian trolls and moral superiority complex (this isn't a dig towards Ukrainians, but I guess almost all discussions about the war are done by people from other countries). Germany did decide to chain itself to Russian fossil fuels, and made little effort to change this even after Crimea. Regardless of what you want to say about point 2 right now, that's still a valid (and quite serious) criticism.
Only as long as they keep buying it. If Germany and Russia are chained together that creates dependence both ways. I still maintain that integrating the Russian economy with the wider world weakens Russia’s ability to act as a rogue state.
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On April 25 2022 23:19 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2022 20:19 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On April 25 2022 17:43 schaf wrote:
I think Germany bashing is not quite right regarding the Ukraine war. There are three arguments circling around:
1. German politicians on the outset of the war assumed Ukraine to be overrun in a few days and were thus not enthusiastic about sending help. The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany reported this.
- This is true, on the other hand most nations expected Kiyv to fall in a few days and what's left after that? This is more of a communication blunder that concerns optics.
2. Germany should cut its imports of energy from Russia. It is directly financing the war!
- That's a tough one since there are multiple analyses with different predictions. I think in essence it wouldn't be too great for a politician to decide to lower GDP right now in a time of inflation (economic insecurity), injuring vital industries like chemicals (and thus pharmaceuticals) and steel right after/ at the end of the COVID hit to the economy and global supply chains. The store I work at is still not able to procure most items in a reasonable time - 2 years after the first lockdown!
3. Germany doesn't send enough weapons and especially heavy weapons.
- Well that is part of true, but from what I am reading Germany doesn't have too many heavy weapons. The Bundeswehr is in shambles and military officers say as much publicly. Does anyone remember pictures of German tank crews holding broomsticks as a replacement for the main guns during joint exercises? That about sums it up. We could give away tanks for sure but replacement isn't coming in for a few years and we have obligations to NATO and to our own self-defense (in case the Danes attack /s). Also procurement of NATO standard machinery was deemed to be of no use to Ukraine for the first 1-2 months of the war since it takes a lot of time to train a tank crew, engineers and the logistics personnel to make use of it efficiently. Now that it seems the conflict will last a lot longer that may be an option.
There are valid reasons for Germanys decisions during the conflict, agree with it or not. Uninviting the German president does nothing for noone. And as for every politician in every country what our Chancellor says is 95% directed to his own electorate (and financial supporters) and 5% to foreign partners. The way Germany bashing pops up again and again I'm convinced that it stems from a combination of scapegoating, Russian trolls and moral superiority complex (this isn't a dig towards Ukrainians, but I guess almost all discussions about the war are done by people from other countries). Germany did decide to chain itself to Russian fossil fuels, and made little effort to change this even after Crimea. Regardless of what you want to say about point 2 right now, that's still a valid (and quite serious) criticism. Only as long as they keep buying it. If Germany and Russia are chained together that creates dependence both ways. I still maintain that integrating the Russian economy with the wider world weakens Russia’s ability to act as a rogue state.
I agree in principle, but for that to be fully true you'd have to create a dependence on non-strategically-critical resource coming out of Russia. Oil and gas are quite hard to cut off on a short notice, especially during colder seasons. With something less critical it would be easier to create leverage by cutting off Russia's income.
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Not to defend our Chancellor or his non-action or anything but if Germany would cut gas from Russia, they would probably just sell to China. There is already one pipeline in place and another is developed.
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United States41982 Posts
On April 26 2022 00:43 Harris1st wrote:
Not to defend our Chancellor or his non-action or anything but if Germany would cut gas from Russia, they would probably just sell to China. There is already one pipeline in place and another is developed.
That’s not how any of this works. That pipeline doesn’t have infinite capacity, new pipelines can’t just be laid overnight, the logistical network to receive and distribute Russian gas can’t be built overnight, and Russia lacks the technical capability to do this. And even if it was, it’s not about the physical euros, it’s about what buying German manufactured goods with German euros for 20 years did to Russian domestic industry. Every German tractor sold in Russia hurts the Russian tank industry. The euros breed dependence.
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This is a great thread for assessing just how bad things have gone for Russia. I didn't find a number for estimated injuries to Russian forces, but it is usually around 2-3x the number killed, I believe. I really do believe that Ukraine will be able to fight off Russia and take back control of their territory, and my perhaps naive optimism is that Ukrainian victory occurs by the end of May as Russia's losses get to be far too much
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Wouldn't mind the CIA dealing with the problem by just sabotaging a ton of oil refineries in Russia.
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Trying to import fuel from a despotism that relies on fossil fuel exports to have an economy is only selectively bad when the despotism is currently doing some crazy shit. Meanwhile all the peoply yelling at Germany for keeping Nord Stream 2 are completely okay with importing their oil from Saudi Arabia, who are currently involved in a war in yemen. The other people bashing the gas imports are those that think they now have a gotcha against german exit from nuclear energy. Those exist in Germany as well. Deal with it. There is a lot to criticize about it, mainly the execution and the speed at which renewables and the network itself are improved. But the german society as a whole does not want nuclear power plants anymore. We will not go back on this. I can get calls to stop importing from Russia right now, but people claiming that we should have started that process 20 years ago because back then Russia was already a monster then i would like to know where your industries get your conflict free resources from 
In regards to sending heavy weapons, the peace movement in Germany is very prevalent and sometimes naive and impractical, but it exists and the goverment needs to respect it a bit. We are sending weapons nonetheless. I don't know how much more we could do, but suffice to say there is controversy whether we should be sending tanks and artillery. I would consider myself a pacifist and i am currently really torn how to maintain that, when it's obvious that world around europe is not simply peaceful and we don't really need an army anymore. I thougt that 20 years ago. But the awkward thing with people currently still calling for pesceful solutions only to solve the conflict is that a lot of them are very far apart politically. Some are just naive lefties that absolutely think Ukraine should just lay down their weapons and then protest peacefully. Some are right wing nuts that desperately try to find a position that is not political mainstream and is not hurting their buddy in Russia, so now they are pacifist and hate the government for supporting a war. They have to hate the government. (I know such people personally and it really hurts being around them.) And then there are a lot of people that understand that Ukraine has a right to defend themselves but can't really support a war nonetheless. And they are quite numerous.
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Think just like Russian military strength the FSB may have been overblown as well. If this is true.
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Germany was fine with selling armored vehicles and missiles to Russia up until last week. With the pacifist movement turning a blind eye because Russia can do no wrong in their eyes.
It's not about heavy weapons or not, it's that Germany and especially its politicians lied about the situation for egoistic reasons, including personal wealth in the case of Schroeder.
And let me play the world's smallest violin for your pharmaceutical companies being hurt if we stop literal genocide, you know, the thing Germany promised could Never Again happen.
But, fine, don't do any of the scary things. How about you seize oligarch Yachts or something? Oh, wait, Germany is at 300k seized versus billions and tens of billions elsewhere.
What about humanitarian support? DE donations are well below several smaller economies and roughly what the US gives in a week.
Let's face it, Germany doesn't want to help Ukraine, or spoil its relationship with the genocidal dictator in Russia. It will continue to build a one-sided dependency, instead of any meaningful economic integration, thus undermining European security, world food supply and any hope for a rule-based world order.
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Poland has "admitted" to sending Heavy Weaponry to Ukraine. Still no clue who is sending Jets.
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EPT
