EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 103
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
On April 26 2022 23:12 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Nitpick, they are not tanks, better described as anti-aircraft vehicles, despite their overlong German name, though I suppose the distinction is not really that important.Germany to send anti-aircraft Tanks to Ukraine. Makes me wonder if in Germany can Governments fall? Like they do in Italy, the UK? Because even German parliament are saying the country is becoming increasingly isolated on the world stage as well as Diplomatically. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-russian-plane-carry-rcna26015 P. S. For all those lobbing ad hominems, at least read the posts first of you want me to acknowledge them. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
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Ghostcom
Denmark4783 Posts
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5872 Posts
On April 27 2022 15:41 Ghostcom wrote: I think Germany and friends are quickly running out of excuses for not shutting down Russian gas imports already. They have made the bed (despite numerous warnings and protests), now it is time they sleep in it. It is despicable to focus so much on their own economy at such a time. From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. | ||
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Ghostcom
Denmark4783 Posts
On April 27 2022 17:23 maybenexttime wrote: From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. Yeah, that is also my understanding - what I meant was shutting down fossile fuel imports. Even if it hurts the economy - although I am hard pressed to see the "several" countries being hurt to the point where it is horrible for the economies. It seems to be mainly Germany left? | ||
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schaf
Germany1326 Posts
The most important consequence of the sanctions is the withdrawal of foreign companies from Russia. They can think they can do everything themselves but in reality the Russian economy is built on foreign machinery and expertise. While it is important, stopping gas imports right now will not stop the war or significantly alter the course of it. I think it is reasonable for Germany to phase it out over the next year and use it's economic power to help rebuilding Ukraine. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22648 Posts
On April 27 2022 17:23 maybenexttime wrote: My question is can Russia afford to do that?From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. Cutting off exports is going to hurt Europe for sure, but how is Russia going to deal with the further big loss of income and having to shutdown wells when they run out of storage. | ||
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Artesimo
Germany627 Posts
On April 27 2022 17:38 Ghostcom wrote: Yeah, that is also my understanding - what I meant was shutting down fossile fuel imports. Even if it hurts the economy - although I am hard pressed to see the "several" countries being hurt. Probably supply chains because if something is a big part of your economy, that usually means you are either selling it to someone else, or using it to make stuff that you sell to someone else. Being unable to do so can have severe impacts on others if they are unable to get it from somewhere else. We just had an example of that with the pandemic where supply chains got seriously disrupted. And ofc if you trade a lot with a country and their economy takes a big blow, your trade will most likely suffer as well, though this should be more of an issue for more specialised markets. Personally I am not a fan of cutting off supply until you have at least some replacement, which is what we see from most countries. The us initially did not ban any crude fossil fuel imports from russia, even incresed the volume, despite them being less than 10% of their imports. Then they had some talks with venezuela and possibly other alternatives, probably secured an alternative source and where ready to take the transitioning hit. In this thread we have seen that poland and estonia also still imported russian gas, in the case of poland until russia shut them off, and I would blame none of those countries for doing so, making sure you have an alternative is just practical sense. This is not a whataboutism, but a suggestion that if everyone else is doing things a certain way, maybe there is a good reason for it. I am happy as long as germany actually follows through on diversifying russian energy imports and doesn't walk back the suspension of nord stream2 in a year or 2. To me it is a needed step in the long run, not short term. Meanwhile I don't understand the notion of expecting a country to behave drastically different from most other countries, especially when said country has a harder time at doing so... I understand the desire for it. On April 27 2022 18:07 schaf wrote: It hits everyone. Limit your supply and you get higher prices, in Germany itself and on the world market. And if you can't get any right now some factories will close, you lose jobs and suddenly the "worker's party" SPD is the one carelessly putting people out of work. Countries aren't people. It's not like we pay a bit more and everything is gonna be OK, it's a lot more complicated than that. Wouldn't that be ironic, the SPD gets in power again after, having fallen from grace among a lot of the workers, only to alienate them again. I have not thought about this before, but sadly that might be a reason for some of the less reasonable decisions that were made in regards to this war. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany7423 Posts
On April 27 2022 17:38 Ghostcom wrote: Yeah, that is also my understanding - what I meant was shutting down fossile fuel imports. Even if it hurts the economy - although I am hard pressed to see the "several" countries being hurt to the point where it is horrible for the economies. It seems to be mainly Germany left? Also Italy by a large margin. Nevertheless, this is very shortsighted. Denmark for example imported stuff worth 23 billion $ from Germany last year. Machines, pharma, and so on. This will all go away if Germany is gonna cut gas. I mean, I don't think anybody will freeze or starve to death. But things will change | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria890 Posts
On April 27 2022 16:45 Silvanel wrote: Russia cuts gas to Poland and Bulgaria: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61224804 I also saw a tweet about Lithuania in that context. It's an obvious attempt to destabilise local government. Otherwise, it would target a lot more countries. They seek division but they won't get any of that.  | ||
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Legan
Finland597 Posts
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Lwerewolf
Bulgaria78 Posts
On April 27 2022 18:54 SC-Shield wrote: It's an obvious attempt to destabilise local government. Otherwise, it would target a lot more countries. They seek division but they won't get any of that. Not sure how stable our current gov is in the first place, for very obvious reasons to any observer. That said, I still hope that the ultra pro-russia demographic here is just a very vocal minority. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
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Harris1st
Germany7423 Posts
On April 27 2022 18:54 Silvanel wrote: Things changed when Russia invaded Ukraine. You really think there is going back to "business as usual"? I'm not saying that at all. Becoming independant from Russia must be the main goal for all countries in the long run. It's just not something that can be done short term. Cutting oil will be the next step and if our Secretary of Trade and Commerce Habeck is to be believed, it will be decided in the next days which seems like a step in the right direction | ||
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