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Zurich15328 Posts
On April 28 2022 01:07 Mohdoo wrote:
I remember when Twitter commies were saying sanctions on Russia would erode western dominance because they’d find other financial means. Fast forward a bit and everyone is finding alternative sources of Russian gas ahahahaha
Tankie Twitter is my favorite source of entertainment these days. The amount of copium is out of this world.
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On April 28 2022 01:07 Mohdoo wrote:
I remember when Twitter commies were saying sanctions on Russia would erode western dominance because they’d find other financial means. Fast forward a bit and everyone is finding alternative sources of Russian gas ahahahaha
I often see the horseshoe of left and right that are united in their distaste for liberal democracy and the U.S trot out the ruble's exchange rate with the USD as proof the sanctions aren't working. Except it ignores the context of the ruble being put into the currency equivalent of a medical coma. That's not what you exactly call healthy.
They also love to mention how this war means the demise of the petrodollar and U.S. economic hegemony, which I have yet to really see. I dunno, maybe it is because I'm not well-versed in global macroeconomics, but the leaps to suggest Russia is taking no harm from sanctions is laughable. Alright, India is buying more Russian oil, but I doubt that replaces the revenue from the EU. Switching over to yuan-based payment systems isn't a quick solution and a de-dollarization pact with China and India is risky for everyone involved. Even Europe doesn't sound too afraid of divesting from Russian energy now, which was probably their strongest economic leverage over the world.
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On April 28 2022 01:43 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2022 21:28 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 27 2022 20:13 Silvanel wrote:
I honestly am not aware of nuances of Bulgaria situation, stances and policy towards Russia and Ukraine. Could elaborate a little on that? Seconding this. It's hard to get a good overview of the situation in Bulgaria. Although people seem to think RU just killed off the last chance their allies had there by cutting off gas. Here is as objective summary on the topic as you may get. I'm skipping my political bias on this one. + Show Spoiler +
Economy:
- Bulgaria is the poorest nation in the European Union, so this economic warfare is going to be costly. No joke about that.
- For reference, Bulgaria's minimum wage since 1 April 2022 is 710 leva (362 euro) per month. The average salary is 1676BGN (~855 euro) per month in December 2021.
- Inflation is rising, reportedly at 12.4% mostly due to food, transport, gas and fuel prices
Politics:
- Current government is formed by 4 parties, 1 is pro-Russia (BSP) and doesn't want any weapons exported to Ukraine. 2 are pro-west and also for helping Ukraine (PP and DB). The 4th one is a bit unclear to me, they're called ITN. It's a complicated coalition due to lack of majority in last general election.
- Previous government (GERB) paid 3 billion leva for Turk Stream for Russia to use part of our territory as transit, but we don't receive gas via this pipeline. It costs 1.5 billion in euros. It's used by Hungary and Serbia reportedly. That was taxpayer's money for us, we only benefit from transit taxes. This pipeline circumvents Ukraine.
- Previous government (GERB) finished Turk Stream remarkably quickly, but didn't finish pipeline with Greece (diversified gas) as fast which begs some questions
- Bulgaria had 3 general elections in 2021 as we couldn't form a government
Views on Russia:
- Support for Putin is declining
- Bulgaria has a decent amount of pro-Russia supporters, but also a decent amount of pro-west supporters. It's hard to say if either block significantly outnumbers the other. Higher support for Russia than usual has to do with the old regime, back in communism, among older generations imho.
- Ruling parties are so far in line with EU and NATO, but they're not hard on Russia as US is. Bulgaria tries to keep some balance of east vs west which is sometimes viewed as a weak position as "we can't choose a side"
Gas situation:
It's said we have enough capacity for 1 month. After that, we'll still manage it but with initially more expensive gas as they're looking to reduce prices. Pipeline with Greece should be finished by June-July this year.
Helping Ukraine:
- We do our bit, in line with EU sanctions, humanitarian aid, but no weapons reportedly
- Sometimes in social media you may read opinions that we should help our poor countrymen and leave Ukraine to their own devices
- We're mostly sympathetic with Ukrainian refugees I believe
Thanks, nice summary! How would it look if you included your political bias?
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On April 28 2022 05:42 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2022 01:43 SC-Shield wrote:On April 27 2022 21:28 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 27 2022 20:13 Silvanel wrote:
I honestly am not aware of nuances of Bulgaria situation, stances and policy towards Russia and Ukraine. Could elaborate a little on that? Seconding this. It's hard to get a good overview of the situation in Bulgaria. Although people seem to think RU just killed off the last chance their allies had there by cutting off gas. Here is as objective summary on the topic as you may get. I'm skipping my political bias on this one. + Show Spoiler +
Economy:
- Bulgaria is the poorest nation in the European Union, so this economic warfare is going to be costly. No joke about that.
- For reference, Bulgaria's minimum wage since 1 April 2022 is 710 leva (362 euro) per month. The average salary is 1676BGN (~855 euro) per month in December 2021.
- Inflation is rising, reportedly at 12.4% mostly due to food, transport, gas and fuel prices
Politics:
- Current government is formed by 4 parties, 1 is pro-Russia (BSP) and doesn't want any weapons exported to Ukraine. 2 are pro-west and also for helping Ukraine (PP and DB). The 4th one is a bit unclear to me, they're called ITN. It's a complicated coalition due to lack of majority in last general election.
- Previous government (GERB) paid 3 billion leva for Turk Stream for Russia to use part of our territory as transit, but we don't receive gas via this pipeline. It costs 1.5 billion in euros. It's used by Hungary and Serbia reportedly. That was taxpayer's money for us, we only benefit from transit taxes. This pipeline circumvents Ukraine.
- Previous government (GERB) finished Turk Stream remarkably quickly, but didn't finish pipeline with Greece (diversified gas) as fast which begs some questions
- Bulgaria had 3 general elections in 2021 as we couldn't form a government
Views on Russia:
- Support for Putin is declining
- Bulgaria has a decent amount of pro-Russia supporters, but also a decent amount of pro-west supporters. It's hard to say if either block significantly outnumbers the other. Higher support for Russia than usual has to do with the old regime, back in communism, among older generations imho.
- Ruling parties are so far in line with EU and NATO, but they're not hard on Russia as US is. Bulgaria tries to keep some balance of east vs west which is sometimes viewed as a weak position as "we can't choose a side"
Gas situation:
It's said we have enough capacity for 1 month. After that, we'll still manage it but with initially more expensive gas as they're looking to reduce prices. Pipeline with Greece should be finished by June-July this year.
Helping Ukraine:
- We do our bit, in line with EU sanctions, humanitarian aid, but no weapons reportedly
- Sometimes in social media you may read opinions that we should help our poor countrymen and leave Ukraine to their own devices
- We're mostly sympathetic with Ukrainian refugees I believe
Thanks, nice summary! How would it look if you included your political bias?
Yeah, thanks for the writeup, SC-Shield. My takeaway is that the EU will probably need to help Bulgaria. It's the right thing to do, as you're carrying a load bigger than you should. But it might also help you clean up some remnants of bygone eras.
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On April 28 2022 05:42 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2022 01:43 SC-Shield wrote:On April 27 2022 21:28 Ghanburighan wrote:On April 27 2022 20:13 Silvanel wrote:
I honestly am not aware of nuances of Bulgaria situation, stances and policy towards Russia and Ukraine. Could elaborate a little on that? Seconding this. It's hard to get a good overview of the situation in Bulgaria. Although people seem to think RU just killed off the last chance their allies had there by cutting off gas. Here is as objective summary on the topic as you may get. I'm skipping my political bias on this one. + Show Spoiler +
Economy:
- Bulgaria is the poorest nation in the European Union, so this economic warfare is going to be costly. No joke about that.
- For reference, Bulgaria's minimum wage since 1 April 2022 is 710 leva (362 euro) per month. The average salary is 1676BGN (~855 euro) per month in December 2021.
- Inflation is rising, reportedly at 12.4% mostly due to food, transport, gas and fuel prices
Politics:
- Current government is formed by 4 parties, 1 is pro-Russia (BSP) and doesn't want any weapons exported to Ukraine. 2 are pro-west and also for helping Ukraine (PP and DB). The 4th one is a bit unclear to me, they're called ITN. It's a complicated coalition due to lack of majority in last general election.
- Previous government (GERB) paid 3 billion leva for Turk Stream for Russia to use part of our territory as transit, but we don't receive gas via this pipeline. It costs 1.5 billion in euros. It's used by Hungary and Serbia reportedly. That was taxpayer's money for us, we only benefit from transit taxes. This pipeline circumvents Ukraine.
- Previous government (GERB) finished Turk Stream remarkably quickly, but didn't finish pipeline with Greece (diversified gas) as fast which begs some questions
- Bulgaria had 3 general elections in 2021 as we couldn't form a government
Views on Russia:
- Support for Putin is declining
- Bulgaria has a decent amount of pro-Russia supporters, but also a decent amount of pro-west supporters. It's hard to say if either block significantly outnumbers the other. Higher support for Russia than usual has to do with the old regime, back in communism, among older generations imho.
- Ruling parties are so far in line with EU and NATO, but they're not hard on Russia as US is. Bulgaria tries to keep some balance of east vs west which is sometimes viewed as a weak position as "we can't choose a side"
Gas situation:
It's said we have enough capacity for 1 month. After that, we'll still manage it but with initially more expensive gas as they're looking to reduce prices. Pipeline with Greece should be finished by June-July this year.
Helping Ukraine:
- We do our bit, in line with EU sanctions, humanitarian aid, but no weapons reportedly
- Sometimes in social media you may read opinions that we should help our poor countrymen and leave Ukraine to their own devices
- We're mostly sympathetic with Ukrainian refugees I believe
Thanks, nice summary! How would it look if you included your political bias?
Thank you.
Well, I'm not a huge fan of the current government but given parliamentary arithmetic they cannot do much more than that.
In brief, we have 240 MPs and the ruling coalition is 134/240 and it consists of 4 parties. If only 1 of parties quits, we'll probably end up with a snap general election. Considering rising prices, I suppose no one is interested in that until things get a little calmer.
As for my opinion, consider it a wish list because arithmetic cannot be worked around in this one:
Bulgaria needs to start donating weapons to Ukraine. My countrymen (those supporting Russia) need to realise that it IS our problem and it's not some distant country. If Ukraine falls, Kremlin's appetite for land won't finish there. Thank god we're in NATO so Russia cannot make plans for Bulgaria, Poland, Baltic states, etc.
Bulgaria needs to be decisive. Yes, we're at a crossroad geographically (east vs west), but we're already in the EU and NATO. We cannot play as if we like NATO and Russia equally. We did that and gas was cut off to name a very recent example. Some politicians thought that if we don't export weapons to Ukraine, we won't piss Russia off and we'll be cool. They were very wrong.
Old generations (50+ years and older) need to realise that friends with Russia != supporting Putin. They need to draw the line and realise when propaganda is propaganda, so they don't spread misinformation in social media.
I work in IT, so I'm ok financially but I see posts in social media that people struggle with inflation understandably. Therefore, current government needs to do more to make ends meet for poorer people as they seem more susceptible to Russian propaganda in this war. I mean that sometimes they express an opinion that we should do nothing so we don't raise prices further. That's naive considering that Russia added all of the EU to their unfriendly countries list, regardless if you export weapons or not.
To sum up, our top priorities right now need to be:
1. Deal with inflation.
2. Help Ukraine as much as other EU and NATO members, our allies.
3. Fight corruption inside the country. That should increase our standard of living.
After war:
4. Focus on education. Some people are too susceptible to fake news (or propaganda) in actual sense of these words. They read a random source (website) and believe in it. They cannot tell a fact from fiction.
E.g. Today I read some posts in social media claiming that Poland still receives gas when every other major media outlet says otherwise. "Oh look, our government sucks so that's why Poland receives gas again" was sort of how that post was worded. It sounds like what Kremlin intended with this gas cut-off move and some people don't take a second to think.
Our president was also spreading misleading information, implying that Austria was going to receive gas because they were going to pay in roubles. That was later proved to be incorrect.
Edit: Also, it's great news that we're going to stop importing gas from Russia. Freedom is priceless. 
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On April 28 2022 05:21 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2022 03:24 KwarK wrote:
As we saw during the pandemic slump, you can’t just switch off oil wells. Constant flow is a design assumption, if the demand stops you have to either burn off whatever comes out or cap the well. Neither are great options and both involve all the downstream industries and infrastructure withering. The idea that it could be replaced overnight with Chinese demand is ludicrous. Maybe in 10 years time they will sell to China but the maintenance team for the infrastructure won’t wait 10 years without a paycheck. China is also not doing as well with Covid and other factors hitting their economy. They have changed a lot of their targets on emissions so they can use a lot more coal. Which I would think means that they do not want to spend a ton on the infrastructure required to change energy sources. It would take very very cheap oil/LNG to make it cheaper than coal for China when you consider upfront cost and time value of money. I also think China does not want to go full cold war where it is them and Russia against the world. Also, then what happens with India which is actively fighting with China and works with Russia, most of their arms are Russian. Everything is so interconnected that unwinding and sorting out even just logistics is both a nightmare and wildly expensive. https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/china-promotes-coal-setback-efforts-cut-emissions-rcna25790
China is not doing well for very many reasons actually. I've been following more closely what's happening there for about 2-3 years now (started before covid) and it looks like a series of disasters.
For energy:
1. Ban on Australian coal, which was a big chunk of their demand and they have huge coal demand.
2. Dams starting to fail, which could cause catastrophic domino effect.
3. At least one nuclear power plant leaking.
It all had pretty big impact as even in major cities there were power cut outs, traffic lights weren't functioning, a lot of factories were closed down etc.
Domestically:
1. Housing market collapsing (and housing market in China kinda functions like their stock market).
2. Their huge network of railroads becoming immense liability as they built a lot of roads to nowhere and unprofitable routes which were being propped up by more profitable ones (which stopped being profitable when covid hit).
3. Potential for huge civil unrests when people get tired of dying from hunger because of 0-covid policy (what happens there now is quite horrible).
Then all the trouble they had internationally, with big hits to PR from hiding covid numbers, forced labor camps, threatening Taiwan or all the problems they might be facing with companies moving out of China due to supply shortages and now port blockages etc.
The list is longer than that but I guess we can leave it for now as it's a bit off-topic. In any case, China is in a world of trouble right now and I don't think they're ready to get involved in any additional economic sanctions.
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On April 28 2022 10:37 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2022 05:21 JimmiC wrote:On April 28 2022 03:24 KwarK wrote:
As we saw during the pandemic slump, you can’t just switch off oil wells. Constant flow is a design assumption, if the demand stops you have to either burn off whatever comes out or cap the well. Neither are great options and both involve all the downstream industries and infrastructure withering. The idea that it could be replaced overnight with Chinese demand is ludicrous. Maybe in 10 years time they will sell to China but the maintenance team for the infrastructure won’t wait 10 years without a paycheck. China is also not doing as well with Covid and other factors hitting their economy. They have changed a lot of their targets on emissions so they can use a lot more coal. Which I would think means that they do not want to spend a ton on the infrastructure required to change energy sources. It would take very very cheap oil/LNG to make it cheaper than coal for China when you consider upfront cost and time value of money. I also think China does not want to go full cold war where it is them and Russia against the world. Also, then what happens with India which is actively fighting with China and works with Russia, most of their arms are Russian. Everything is so interconnected that unwinding and sorting out even just logistics is both a nightmare and wildly expensive. https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/china-promotes-coal-setback-efforts-cut-emissions-rcna25790 China is not doing well for very many reasons actually. I've been following more closely what's happening there for about 2-3 years now (started before covid) and it looks like a series of disasters. For energy: 1. Ban on Australian coal, which was a big chunk of their demand and they have huge coal demand. 2. Dams starting to fail, which could cause catastrophic domino effect. 3. At least one nuclear power plant leaking. It all had pretty big impact as even in major cities there were power cut outs, traffic lights weren't functioning, a lot of factories were closed down etc. Domestically: 1. Housing market collapsing (and housing market in China kinda functions like their stock market). 2. Their huge network of railroads becoming immense liability as they built a lot of roads to nowhere and unprofitable routes which were being propped up by more profitable ones (which stopped being profitable when covid hit). 3. Potential for huge civil unrests when people get tired of dying from hunger because of 0-covid policy (what happens there now is quite horrible). Then all the trouble they had internationally, with big hits to PR from hiding covid numbers, forced labor camps, threatening Taiwan or all the problems they might be facing with companies moving out of China due to supply shortages and now port blockages etc. The list is longer than that but I guess we can leave it for now as it's a bit off-topic. In any case, China is in a world of trouble right now and I don't think they're ready to get involved in any additional economic sanctions.
China has many problems, but many of the problems you know are incorrect.
I don't want to correct you one by one, which means it's off the topic.
Last time I was banned from talking about the topic.
So please continue to come back to Ukraine.
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On April 28 2022 03:24 KwarK wrote:
As we saw during the pandemic slump, you can’t just switch off oil wells. Constant flow is a design assumption, if the demand stops you have to either burn off whatever comes out or cap the well. Neither are great options and both involve all the downstream industries and infrastructure withering. The idea that it could be replaced overnight with Chinese demand is ludicrous. Maybe in 10 years time they will sell to China but the maintenance team for the infrastructure won’t wait 10 years without a paycheck.
I don't think you read it all. They were already working on this for at least 8 years and the work is almost finished now. When you know you will start a war it's easy to plan ahead.
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On April 28 2022 16:30 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2022 03:24 KwarK wrote:
As we saw during the pandemic slump, you can’t just switch off oil wells. Constant flow is a design assumption, if the demand stops you have to either burn off whatever comes out or cap the well. Neither are great options and both involve all the downstream industries and infrastructure withering. The idea that it could be replaced overnight with Chinese demand is ludicrous. Maybe in 10 years time they will sell to China but the maintenance team for the infrastructure won’t wait 10 years without a paycheck. I don't think you read it all. They were already working on this for at least 8 years and the work is almost finished now. When you know you will start a war it's easy to plan ahead. The issue is that extra infrastructure to supply the east doesn't mean you can just redirect the flow from the west.
Are the fields that feed the east and west even entirely interconnected? do those connections have enough throughput?
Also, Russia absolutely did not plan for this all to happen. These sanctions are certainly tougher then Russia expected and this is way longer then expected.
Remember, this wasn't supposed to be a war. It was a quick operation that was supposed to finish in a matter of days.
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On April 28 2022 17:40 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2022 16:30 Harris1st wrote:On April 28 2022 03:24 KwarK wrote:
As we saw during the pandemic slump, you can’t just switch off oil wells. Constant flow is a design assumption, if the demand stops you have to either burn off whatever comes out or cap the well. Neither are great options and both involve all the downstream industries and infrastructure withering. The idea that it could be replaced overnight with Chinese demand is ludicrous. Maybe in 10 years time they will sell to China but the maintenance team for the infrastructure won’t wait 10 years without a paycheck. I don't think you read it all. They were already working on this for at least 8 years and the work is almost finished now. When you know you will start a war it's easy to plan ahead. The issue is that extra infrastructure to supply the east doesn't mean you can just redirect the flow from the west. Are the fields that feed the east and west even entirely interconnected? do those connections have enough throughput? Also, Russia absolutely did not plan for this all to happen. These sanctions are certainly tougher then Russia expected and this is way longer then expected. Remember, this wasn't supposed to be a war. It was a quick operation that was supposed to finish in a matter of days.
The special operation in UA was certainly supposed be finished in a week or two. But I believe that was just part one in Putins plan and not the whole thing.
I don't know the intricacies of the whole gas pipeline network but why would anyone build new pipelines if you can't connect them?
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On April 28 2022 17:54 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2022 17:40 Gorsameth wrote:On April 28 2022 16:30 Harris1st wrote:On April 28 2022 03:24 KwarK wrote:
As we saw during the pandemic slump, you can’t just switch off oil wells. Constant flow is a design assumption, if the demand stops you have to either burn off whatever comes out or cap the well. Neither are great options and both involve all the downstream industries and infrastructure withering. The idea that it could be replaced overnight with Chinese demand is ludicrous. Maybe in 10 years time they will sell to China but the maintenance team for the infrastructure won’t wait 10 years without a paycheck. I don't think you read it all. They were already working on this for at least 8 years and the work is almost finished now. When you know you will start a war it's easy to plan ahead. The issue is that extra infrastructure to supply the east doesn't mean you can just redirect the flow from the west. Are the fields that feed the east and west even entirely interconnected? do those connections have enough throughput? Also, Russia absolutely did not plan for this all to happen. These sanctions are certainly tougher then Russia expected and this is way longer then expected. Remember, this wasn't supposed to be a war. It was a quick operation that was supposed to finish in a matter of days. The special operation in UA was certainly supposed be finished in a week or two. But I believe that was just part one in Putins plan and not the whole thing. I don't know the intricacies of the whole gas pipeline network but why would anyone build new pipelines if you can't connect them? More pipeline to China makes sense and would allow them to sell, and therefor produce more gas in the east, not necessarily allow them to divert gas from the west.
Remember, Russia is an absolutely massive country
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Apparently the recent provocations towards Transnistria led to Moldova joining EU sanctions and supporting UA militarily. Geniuses in the Kremlin shot themselves in the foot again.
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Bulgarian government is taking a harder line, ignoring the only pro-Russia party in government wishes not to donate weapons to Ukraine. Next week there will be a vote in parliament to donate weapons. If everyone sticks to their words, including previous governing party, then vote should pass.
Would that shake coalition up a bit? Probably, but I don't expect it to fail. Ex-communists (pro-Russia party) are toothless nowadays. Only 10.07% of vote in last general election, hardly what it used to be 20-30 years ago. Their peak was in 1994 when they managed to get 43.5%.
“Among the rubble left of this apartment building there were toys. How can you say this is a military operation when the apartments of peaceful civilians are being destroyed? These people were targeted, without any reason whatsoever. In this town there is not a single military facility, there was absolutely nothing, just peaceful population,” said Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Kiril Petkov in Borodyanka, a town in the outskirts of Kyiv freed from Russian occupation, which he visited as part of the visit by a Bulgarian government delegation to Ukraine.
Bulgarian government delegation visits Kyiv
“It is We Continue the Change’s unequivocal position that Bulgaria must render Ukraine military aid, and I hope parliament will approve it next week.”
Assen Vassilev: The President’s position that by giving weapons to Ukraine we are prolonging the conflict is ignominious
“What we are hearing being said is: Do not help Ukraine so peace can come quicker. If the Russian side continues the bombardment, and if no one is able to defend themselves, is that the kind of peace we want? (…) That is not the position of the democratic world, it cannot be the position of Bulgaria,” Kiril Petkov said further.
Source: https://bnr.bg/en/post/101638824/pm-kiril-petkov-expects-parliament-to-approve-military-aid-for-ukraine
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On April 28 2022 18:17 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2022 17:54 Harris1st wrote:On April 28 2022 17:40 Gorsameth wrote:On April 28 2022 16:30 Harris1st wrote:On April 28 2022 03:24 KwarK wrote:
As we saw during the pandemic slump, you can’t just switch off oil wells. Constant flow is a design assumption, if the demand stops you have to either burn off whatever comes out or cap the well. Neither are great options and both involve all the downstream industries and infrastructure withering. The idea that it could be replaced overnight with Chinese demand is ludicrous. Maybe in 10 years time they will sell to China but the maintenance team for the infrastructure won’t wait 10 years without a paycheck. I don't think you read it all. They were already working on this for at least 8 years and the work is almost finished now. When you know you will start a war it's easy to plan ahead. The issue is that extra infrastructure to supply the east doesn't mean you can just redirect the flow from the west. Are the fields that feed the east and west even entirely interconnected? do those connections have enough throughput? Also, Russia absolutely did not plan for this all to happen. These sanctions are certainly tougher then Russia expected and this is way longer then expected. Remember, this wasn't supposed to be a war. It was a quick operation that was supposed to finish in a matter of days. The special operation in UA was certainly supposed be finished in a week or two. But I believe that was just part one in Putins plan and not the whole thing. I don't know the intricacies of the whole gas pipeline network but why would anyone build new pipelines if you can't connect them? More pipeline to China makes sense and would allow them to sell, and therefor produce more gas in the east, not necessarily allow them to divert gas from the west. Remember, Russia is an absolutely massive country
It is important to note that just connecting the pipelines isn't enough. You need to connect them with a pipeline big enough to transfer all the gas currently going west. And you need to run that pipeline all the way through russia.
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Zurich15328 Posts
On April 26 2022 17:10 zatic wrote:
At least, the pressure is strong enough that him and his party simply have to give in eventually. Last week, they agreed to replace heavy weapons delivered by allies to Ukraine. Today, they green lit delivery of German army anti aircraft guns. As the pressure mounts, expect more to come, including tanks and artillery, as well as further financial support.
Germany wants to help Ukraine, at the cost of spoiling it's relationship with the genocidal dictator of Russia. It will build back dependencies, and strengthen European security, world food supply, and hope for a rule based world order.
Germany today green lit delivery of further heavy weapons including infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, and artillery to Ukraine.
As a first step Slovenia and Chechia would send their T-72s to Ukraine which would be replaced by Germany with Western equipment. This makes sense as Ukraine won't need additional training to put those tanks to use.
Germany will also train Ukrainians on Western equipment, as I understand for future deliveries.
Currently being discussed (not agreed yet) is the delivery of up to 100 Marder IFV, 88 Leopard 1 tanks, and up to 100 PzH2000 (!) to Ukraine (By delivering from Dutch and German army arsenals and backfilling from KMW, the manufacturer). Even anything close to that number would be a game changer, especially the PzH2000. Trained crews provided they would rip through Russian positions.
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Follow up to the above, Zelensky seems to appreciate the change in DE.
P. S. Loving the Bulgarian updates.
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Russian Federation610 Posts
On April 28 2022 17:40 Gorsameth wrote:
Also, Russia absolutely did not plan for this all to happen. These sanctions are certainly tougher then Russia expected and this is way longer then expected.
Remember, this wasn't supposed to be a war. It was a quick operation that was supposed to finish in a matter of days.
Not entirely true. Russia started to build more self-sufficient economy after 2014, at least in food department it is able to fully fulfill the needs of the domestic market. As for example - 10 years ago I was buying potatoes (!) from Denmark and Israel. Now most of the veggies, cereal and animal products are domestic, the latter even local (I live in the north, so large-scale farming is tough here).
Another example is domestic payment system (Mir). We were laughing about it five years ago (like who needs it if you have Visa?), but from current perspective its creation seems much more understandable.
Same goes for military complex (though, though, of course, a bunch of high-tech stuff, for both civilian and military purposes, is impossible to replace domestically, in short-term for certain). The best example is aviation engines. Before 2014 Motor-Sich plant in Ukraine was the biggest supplier of engines for Russian air force, especially helicopter and cruise missile ones. In spring of 2014 this cooperation stopped, we had to develop/restore our own plants to produce those.
Actually, the story with this plant could be one of the reasons, why China is so cold towards Ukraine. After 2014 it was mostly Chinese investments that kept the plant alive and working. China then have repeatedly tried to cut a deal about it, so they could get access to the RnD data. The deal was cut in 2019, Chinese got 50% of the shares, but then Ukraine Security Bureau came in and put the deal to a halt. Apparently US didn't want the technologies to fall into Chinese hands, and forced Ukrainian government to block the deal. In 2020 the plant became Ukraine's government property, Chinese investors came under sanctions form Ukraine and US and they've filed two lawsuits on 8 billion dollars in total (and of course didn't get a penny to this day).
As for your latter statement - I doubt that anyone in their right mind should have expected a Russian victory within a week (even Iraqi Freedom took about a month), but yes, a lot of people (including, I believe, many in Russian High Command) overestimated Russian army strength, and underestimated of Ukrainian one.
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EPT
