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On April 27 2022 18:16 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2022 17:23 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 15:41 Ghostcom wrote:
I think Germany and friends are quickly running out of excuses for not shutting down Russian gas imports already. They have made the bed (despite numerous warnings and protests), now it is time they sleep in it. It is despicable to focus so much on their own economy at such a time. From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. My question is can Russia afford to do that? Cutting off exports is going to hurt Europe for sure, but how is Russia going to deal with the further big loss of income and having to shutdown wells when they run out of storage.
It would most likely be suicidal but if they think an oil embargo would be a fatal blow to their economy/government budget, they may as well take the EU with them.
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On April 27 2022 20:19 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2022 18:16 Gorsameth wrote:On April 27 2022 17:23 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 15:41 Ghostcom wrote:
I think Germany and friends are quickly running out of excuses for not shutting down Russian gas imports already. They have made the bed (despite numerous warnings and protests), now it is time they sleep in it. It is despicable to focus so much on their own economy at such a time. From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. My question is can Russia afford to do that? Cutting off exports is going to hurt Europe for sure, but how is Russia going to deal with the further big loss of income and having to shutdown wells when they run out of storage. It would most likely be suicidal but if they think an oil embargo would be a fatal blow to their economy/government budget, they may as well take the EU with them.
Pretty sure China will buy everything that can somehow be delivered. They are probably gonna pay less than EU but it's still enough to keep Russia afloat for a while.
And then China can sell to EU for profit even? Not sure how all the details will work but this might be plan
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On April 27 2022 20:22 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2022 20:19 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 18:16 Gorsameth wrote:On April 27 2022 17:23 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 15:41 Ghostcom wrote:
I think Germany and friends are quickly running out of excuses for not shutting down Russian gas imports already. They have made the bed (despite numerous warnings and protests), now it is time they sleep in it. It is despicable to focus so much on their own economy at such a time. From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. My question is can Russia afford to do that? Cutting off exports is going to hurt Europe for sure, but how is Russia going to deal with the further big loss of income and having to shutdown wells when they run out of storage. It would most likely be suicidal but if they think an oil embargo would be a fatal blow to their economy/government budget, they may as well take the EU with them. Pretty sure China will buy everything that can somehow be delivered. They are probably gonna pay less than EU but it's still enough to keep Russia afloat for a while
They are not making any profit on their oil exports to China, afaik. The pipe was financed from a Chinese loan. All profits are going towards paying it off. Do they have any capacity left in those pipes?
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On April 27 2022 18:45 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2022 17:38 Ghostcom wrote:On April 27 2022 17:23 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 15:41 Ghostcom wrote:
I think Germany and friends are quickly running out of excuses for not shutting down Russian gas imports already. They have made the bed (despite numerous warnings and protests), now it is time they sleep in it. It is despicable to focus so much on their own economy at such a time. From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. Yeah, that is also my understanding - what I meant was shutting down fossile fuel imports. Even if it hurts the economy - although I am hard pressed to see the "several" countries being hurt to the point where it is horrible for the economies. It seems to be mainly Germany left? Also Italy by a large margin. Nevertheless, this is very shortsighted. Denmark for example imported stuff worth 23 billion $ from Germany last year. Machines, pharma, and so on. This will all go away if Germany is gonna cut gas. I mean, I don't think anybody will freeze or starve to death. But things will change
I am fully aware of that - I am not as shortsighted as you (and others here) think. A humanitarian crisis is happening right on our doorstep and I am willing to pay the price to make it stop as soon as possible. I remain unconvinced that it will it be downright horrible for the economies - especially in the long run.
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On April 27 2022 20:23 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2022 20:22 Harris1st wrote:On April 27 2022 20:19 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 18:16 Gorsameth wrote:On April 27 2022 17:23 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 15:41 Ghostcom wrote:
I think Germany and friends are quickly running out of excuses for not shutting down Russian gas imports already. They have made the bed (despite numerous warnings and protests), now it is time they sleep in it. It is despicable to focus so much on their own economy at such a time. From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. My question is can Russia afford to do that? Cutting off exports is going to hurt Europe for sure, but how is Russia going to deal with the further big loss of income and having to shutdown wells when they run out of storage. It would most likely be suicidal but if they think an oil embargo would be a fatal blow to their economy/government budget, they may as well take the EU with them. Pretty sure China will buy everything that can somehow be delivered. They are probably gonna pay less than EU but it's still enough to keep Russia afloat for a while They are not making any profit on their oil exports to China, afaik. The pipe was financed from a Chinese loan. All profits are going towards paying it off. Do they have any capacity left in those pipes?
I'm not sure how the existing pipes fare but there is a new one almost finished between Blagoweschtschensk, Russia – Heihe, China over the river Amur and also LNG capacities by train and ship have been increased on both sides since 2015.
Source in German
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Another series of large explosions in Russia. This time an ammunition factory.
LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - Russia reported a series of blasts in the south of the country and a fire at an ammunition depot on Wednesday, the latest in a spate incidents that a top Ukrainian official described as payback and "karma" for Moscow's invasion.
Without directly admitting that Ukraine was responsible, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said it was natural that Russian regions where fuel and weapons are stored were learning about "demilitarisation".
The use of that word was a pointed reference to Moscow's stated objective for the nine-week-old war in Ukraine, which it calls a special military operation to disarm and "denazify" its neighbour.
"If you (Russians) decide to massively attack another country, massively kill everyone there, massively crush peaceful people with tanks, and use warehouses in your regions to enable the killings, then sooner or later the debts will have to be repaid," Podolyak said.
The blasts on Wednesday followed a major fire this week at a Russian oil storage facility in the Bryansk region near the border.
Earlier this month, Russia accused Ukraine of attacking a fuel depot in Belgorod with helicopters, which a top Kyiv security official denied, and opening fire on several villages in the province.
The incidents have exposed Russian vulnerabilities in areas close to Ukraine that are vital to its military logistics chains.
In the latest incidents, Belgorod regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said a fire at an ammunition depot had been extinguished and no civilians have been injured.
Roman Starovoyt, the governor of Kursk, another province that borders Ukraine, said explosions had also been heard in Kursk city early on Wednesday and that they were most likely the sounds of air defence systems firing.
He later said that a Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle was intercepted in the sky over Kursk region, adding that there were no casualties or damage.
In Voronezh, the administrative centre of another southern province, TASS news agency cited an emergencies ministry official as saying that two blasts had been heard and the authorities were investigating.
Regional governor Alexander Gusev said in the morning that an air defence system had detected and destroyed a small reconnaissance drone.
Russia said it was sending investigators to Kursk and Voronezh regions to document what it calls "illegal actions by the Ukrainian army".
Ukraine's Podolyak said it was not possible to "sit out" the Russian invasion. "And therefore, the disarmament of the Belgorod and Voronezh killers' warehouses is an absolutely natural process. Karma is a cruel thing," he said.
Source
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On April 27 2022 20:13 Silvanel wrote:
I honestly am not aware of nuances of Bulgaria situation, stances and policy towards Russia and Ukraine. Could elaborate a little on that?
Seconding this. It's hard to get a good overview of the situation in Bulgaria. Although people seem to think RU just killed off the last chance their allies had there by cutting off gas.
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EU appears to be formulating a united front on RU energy policy (if successful, this will be a major shift which has been consistently opposed by DE (cheaper RU gas than neighbours) and FR (resisting energy sharing to keep domestic prices under control).
President of the European Parliament going further, asking for a common embargo.
While unlikely, this would change the EU forever by setting a precedent for common energy policy and present a much more powerful united European front to energy producing states, including OPEC.
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On April 27 2022 20:22 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2022 20:19 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 18:16 Gorsameth wrote:On April 27 2022 17:23 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 15:41 Ghostcom wrote:
I think Germany and friends are quickly running out of excuses for not shutting down Russian gas imports already. They have made the bed (despite numerous warnings and protests), now it is time they sleep in it. It is despicable to focus so much on their own economy at such a time. From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. My question is can Russia afford to do that? Cutting off exports is going to hurt Europe for sure, but how is Russia going to deal with the further big loss of income and having to shutdown wells when they run out of storage. It would most likely be suicidal but if they think an oil embargo would be a fatal blow to their economy/government budget, they may as well take the EU with them. Pretty sure China will buy everything that can somehow be delivered. They are probably gonna pay less than EU but it's still enough to keep Russia afloat for a while. And then China can sell to EU for profit even? Not sure how all the details will work but this might be plan
It's not that easy. While oil is more easily transported by sea not all refineries can use all types of oil and it's not easy to change. It's why the US still imports oil even though they produce more than they use. Either way even if they manage to divert oil sales to other countries it'll go at a discount and hit their bottom line.
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On April 27 2022 21:44 Ghanburighan wrote:EU appears to be formulating a united front on RU energy policy (if successful, this will be a major shift which has been consistently opposed by DE (cheaper RU gas than neighbours) and FR (resisting energy sharing to keep domestic prices under control). https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1519218530914381825President of the European Parliament going further, asking for a common embargo. https://twitter.com/EP_President/status/1519265088766676992While unlikely, this would change the EU forever by setting a precedent for common energy policy and present a much more powerful united European front to energy producing states, including OPEC.
Until the names of the four countries that are paying Russia in Rubles comes out. Amazing that anybody thinks it won't.
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On April 27 2022 22:26 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2022 20:22 Harris1st wrote:On April 27 2022 20:19 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 18:16 Gorsameth wrote:On April 27 2022 17:23 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 15:41 Ghostcom wrote:
I think Germany and friends are quickly running out of excuses for not shutting down Russian gas imports already. They have made the bed (despite numerous warnings and protests), now it is time they sleep in it. It is despicable to focus so much on their own economy at such a time. From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. My question is can Russia afford to do that? Cutting off exports is going to hurt Europe for sure, but how is Russia going to deal with the further big loss of income and having to shutdown wells when they run out of storage. It would most likely be suicidal but if they think an oil embargo would be a fatal blow to their economy/government budget, they may as well take the EU with them. Pretty sure China will buy everything that can somehow be delivered. They are probably gonna pay less than EU but it's still enough to keep Russia afloat for a while. And then China can sell to EU for profit even? Not sure how all the details will work but this might be plan It's not that easy. While oil is more easily transported by sea not all refineries can use all types of oil and it's not easy to change. It's why the US still imports oil even though they produce more than they use. Either way even if they manage to divert oil sales to other countries it'll go at a discount and hit their bottom line.
China is not really in a position to buy large quantities of anything right now. Shanghai has been closed off completely (and it's the biggest port in the world) along with some other cities and even entire provinces. I guess the backlog on some key goods will be huge for a while (it's much worse than Evergreen) as they're not doing any off- or on-loading of cargo there. Around 20% of the world's container vessels are now stuck there. This might be a big blow to companies relying heavily on Chinese goods and services (Apple and Tesla come to mind).
![[image loading]](https://www.marineinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Figure-2.png.webp)
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On April 27 2022 20:22 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2022 20:19 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 18:16 Gorsameth wrote:On April 27 2022 17:23 maybenexttime wrote:On April 27 2022 15:41 Ghostcom wrote:
I think Germany and friends are quickly running out of excuses for not shutting down Russian gas imports already. They have made the bed (despite numerous warnings and protests), now it is time they sleep in it. It is despicable to focus so much on their own economy at such a time. From what I've read, oil constitutes a much larger share of the Russian government's revenues. Germany is ready to cut that off (their MFA was in Poland to discuss the details of Poland being an alternative supply). The problem is that Russia might cut off gas entirely in retaliation. An oil embargo would be such a massive blow that losing gas revenues could be seen by Russia as not making matters that much worse while being horrible for the economies of several EU countries. My question is can Russia afford to do that? Cutting off exports is going to hurt Europe for sure, but how is Russia going to deal with the further big loss of income and having to shutdown wells when they run out of storage. It would most likely be suicidal but if they think an oil embargo would be a fatal blow to their economy/government budget, they may as well take the EU with them. Pretty sure China will buy everything that can somehow be delivered. They are probably gonna pay less than EU but it's still enough to keep Russia afloat for a while. And then China can sell to EU for profit even? Not sure how all the details will work but this might be plan
Well they can continue doing what they do now. Drive a tanker with russian oil into the open ocean, mix the oil with other non-russian oil from another tanker, now suddenly the oil is less than 50% russian and can be sold as oil that does not have russian origin. Or they can go through the refineries in Latvia, where they are then sold as 'Latvia mix'.
Both of these types of mixes are happening right now and have become quite popular in the market after the war/sanctions started.
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I was wondering how long it would take them to cut off gas supply, they should do the same for the entire EU zone so we can import clean gas from the defenders of freedom.
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Defenders of freedom = ?
Who exactly is producing enough natural gas and how exactly can it be imported into Europe right now to make up for a loss in gas supply? It'll take time to build the facilities and docks for LNG, as well as to build the specialised LNG carriers themselves.
Europe should as a whole should wean itself off Russian gas and oil, but it will hurt both sides. That's kind of the point.
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On April 27 2022 23:57 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Defenders of freedom = ?
Who exactly is producing enough natural gas and how exactly can it be imported into Europe right now to make up for a loss in gas supply? It'll take time to build the facilities and docks for LNG, as well as to build the specialised LNG carriers themselves.
Europe should as a whole should wean itself off Russian gas and oil, but it will hurt both sides. That's kind of the point.
I think he is being sarcastic about US fracking gas
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Russia has cut off gas supply to Poland as we refused to pay them in Rubles. Right now it's not a big problem as our underground stores are at 75% and we have a gas port, it getting warmer also means there'll be reduced need for gas for a while, which gives us a few months of cushion before it becomes a real issue in which time we can hopefully secure a new source of gas.
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I remember when Twitter commies were saying sanctions on Russia would erode western dominance because they’d find other financial means. Fast forward a bit and everyone is finding alternative sources of Russian gas ahahahaha
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On April 27 2022 21:28 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2022 20:13 Silvanel wrote:
I honestly am not aware of nuances of Bulgaria situation, stances and policy towards Russia and Ukraine. Could elaborate a little on that? Seconding this. It's hard to get a good overview of the situation in Bulgaria. Although people seem to think RU just killed off the last chance their allies had there by cutting off gas.
Here is as objective summary on the topic as you may get. I'm skipping my political bias on this one.
Economy:
- Bulgaria is the poorest nation in the European Union, so this economic warfare is going to be costly. No joke about that.
- For reference, Bulgaria's minimum wage since 1 April 2022 is 710 leva (362 euro) per month. The average salary is 1676BGN (~855 euro) per month in December 2021.
- Inflation is rising, reportedly at 12.4% mostly due to food, transport, gas and fuel prices
Politics:
- Current government is formed by 4 parties, 1 is pro-Russia (BSP) and doesn't want any weapons exported to Ukraine. 2 are pro-west and also for helping Ukraine (PP and DB). The 4th one is a bit unclear to me, they're called ITN. It's a complicated coalition due to lack of majority in last general election.
- Previous government (GERB) paid 3 billion leva for Turk Stream for Russia to use part of our territory as transit, but we don't receive gas via this pipeline. It costs 1.5 billion in euros. It's used by Hungary and Serbia reportedly. That was taxpayer's money for us, we only benefit from transit taxes. This pipeline circumvents Ukraine.
- Previous government (GERB) finished Turk Stream remarkably quickly, but didn't finish pipeline with Greece (diversified gas) as fast which begs some questions
- Bulgaria had 3 general elections in 2021 as we couldn't form a government
Views on Russia:
- Support for Putin is declining
- Bulgaria has a decent amount of pro-Russia supporters, but also a decent amount of pro-west supporters. It's hard to say if either block significantly outnumbers the other. Higher support for Russia than usual has to do with the old regime, back in communism, among older generations imho.
- Ruling parties are so far in line with EU and NATO, but they're not hard on Russia as US is. Bulgaria tries to keep some balance of east vs west which is sometimes viewed as a weak position as "we can't choose a side"
Gas situation:
It's said we have enough capacity for 1 month. After that, we'll still manage it but with initially more expensive gas as they're looking to reduce prices. Pipeline with Greece should be finished by June-July this year.
Helping Ukraine:
- We do our bit, in line with EU sanctions, humanitarian aid, but no weapons reportedly
- Sometimes in social media you may read opinions that we should help our poor countrymen and leave Ukraine to their own devices
- We're mostly sympathetic with Ukrainian refugees I believe
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I wonder if Russian oil has stopped flowing into EU? Can someone confirm? The oil depot hit in Bryansk is also where the pipeline runs I believe and I've heard it was made inoperable because of all the fires, which would cut off EU from the Russian oil regardless of their desires.
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United States42700 Posts
As we saw during the pandemic slump, you can’t just switch off oil wells. Constant flow is a design assumption, if the demand stops you have to either burn off whatever comes out or cap the well. Neither are great options and both involve all the downstream industries and infrastructure withering. The idea that it could be replaced overnight with Chinese demand is ludicrous. Maybe in 10 years time they will sell to China but the maintenance team for the infrastructure won’t wait 10 years without a paycheck.
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EPT
