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On April 29 2022 04:55 SC-Shield wrote:
Either distraction or Russia is all-in on this one by forcing others to help them against Ukraine. The latter doesn't add up as Belarus is not fighting yet. Rumour has it that Russia wants to declare victory on 9 May, so escalation is highly likely by then.
On Belarus, it's.. complicated. There were some similar claims of Ukrainian strikes on Belarusian territory a few weeks into the war and it does appear that Russia really tried to get them to send troops but just couldn't. Even Western intelligence were convinced at some point that them sending troops into Ukraine was imminent. There's two potential explanations here:
1. Lukashenko lost a lot of political capital to stay in power after the previous election fiasco and there was too much pushback from within the military and the rest of the apparatus against direct involvement.
2. He could be less of a bumbling idiot than he appears and while in public he keeps being Putin's #1 fanboy and supporting all his theories in private he may have realized that getting Belarusians killed for someone else's mismanaged war would be the death of him.
Lukashenko is now in the unique position of being a dictator that rules via police brutality and yet is openly the butt of all jokes among his countrymen. To give you an example of this there's a quote of his from a public talk with Putin that became a sensation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/And_now_I_will_show_you_where_the_attack_on_Belarus_was_prepared_from
And not just among politically active folks on the internet, I even saw a video of some guy at a football match imitate him and start doing the quote and all the random people in the crowd were belly laughing about it.
On Transnistria, the only explanation I can come up with is that Russia wants the option of having a few thousand extra meat shields for a possible push on Odessa. My impression is that they're in no position to deny a Russian request if it comes to that. There's basically only two political positions there, those who are for unification with Russia (including current leadership) and those who are for independence. The former might be willing to fight in Ukraine, the latter will likely want to flee.
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On April 29 2022 04:55 SC-Shield wrote:
Either distraction or Russia is all-in on this one by forcing others to help them against Ukraine. The latter doesn't add up as Belarus is not fighting yet.
Belarus has been fighting "all along". If you can't see it then you're probably watching the propaganda shit..
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The fight for Donbas is starting to resemble for of WWI as the Russians keep attacking and being repulsed. While the Ukrainians keep getting modern weapons and stronger. While the UA digs in and holds till the time to counter attack.
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On April 29 2022 07:04 Dan HH wrote:
On Transnistria, the only explanation I can come up with is that Russia wants the option of having a few thousand extra meat shields for a possible push on Odessa. My impression is that they're in no position to deny a Russian request if it comes to that. There's basically only two political positions there, those who are for unification with Russia (including current leadership) and those who are for independence. The former might be willing to fight in Ukraine, the latter will likely want to flee.
Spot on!
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Bulgaria to work and cooperate with Ukraine.
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Russian Federation610 Posts
On April 29 2022 09:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2022 04:55 SC-Shield wrote:
Either distraction or Russia is all-in on this one by forcing others to help them against Ukraine. The latter doesn't add up as Belarus is not fighting yet. Belarus has been fighting "all along". If you can't see it then you're probably watching the propaganda shit..
Technically you are both right. Belarus acted as our ally by providing transportation, bases, supplies, intel and acting as "force in being" over Western Ukraine during offensive on Kiev-Chernigov area. But they didn't commit their forces over Ukrainian territory. The opposition is still strong in Belarus, and they actively monitor Belarus troop movements and report them to Ukrainians. If even one Belarusian BTG crossed the border, there would have been a tremendous outrage.
There was a moment (in mid-March IIRC) when Belarusian troops in Brest area started to put red squares on their vehicles and reportedly moved south. This went all over Telegram channels, Belarusian MoD reported that these were exercises and nobody saw such markings again.
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On April 29 2022 17:51 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2022 09:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:On April 29 2022 04:55 SC-Shield wrote:
Either distraction or Russia is all-in on this one by forcing others to help them against Ukraine. The latter doesn't add up as Belarus is not fighting yet. Belarus has been fighting "all along". If you can't see it then you're probably watching the propaganda shit.. Technically you are both right. Belarus acted as our ally by providing transportation, bases, supplies, intel and acting as "force in being" over Western Ukraine during offensive on Kiev-Chernigov area. But they didn't commit their forces over Ukrainian territory. The opposition is still strong in Belarus, and they actively monitor Belarus troop movements and report them to Ukrainians. If even one Belarusian BTG crossed the border, there would have been a tremendous outrage. There was a moment (in mid-March IIRC) when Belarusian troops in Brest area started to put red squares on their vehicles and reportedly moved south. This went all over Telegram channels, Belarusian MoD reported that these were exercises and nobody saw such markings again.
Thanks for clarification.
This is what I meant as well. Russia-Belarus exercises before invasion don't count. Belarussian forces are not currently in Ukraine as far as I know, at least it's not reported by western media as far as I know.
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Poland sent Ukraine 200 T-72 tanks. Sure, it's old Soviet junk, but that's still a looooot of junk.
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Not all T-72 are junk. Many of them are modernized and are respectable even by todays standards. Unless You know for sure we sent junk?
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I don't know. I know that we didn't send PT-91s which are modernized versions of T-72. It's possible those T-72 underwent some smaller modernizations. My source in Polish (onet.pl) did not provide additional details.
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On April 29 2022 19:09 Sent. wrote:
Poland sent Ukraine 200 T-72 tanks. Sure, it's old Soviet junk, but that's still a looooot of junk.
They are not junk. They're still RU's main battle tank. And Poland's are better thanks to both modernization and better maintenance. Those 200 tanks will matter.
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There's a general feeling on the UA side that things are going better on the eastern front and some serious scepticism towards the offensive from people close to the RU military.
Below, one of their war reporters (politically connected), throwing shade at the planning of the operation, saying that the heroism of their troops won't be enough to break through UA lines.
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Russian Federation610 Posts
On April 29 2022 20:27 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2022 19:09 Sent. wrote:
Poland sent Ukraine 200 T-72 tanks. Sure, it's old Soviet junk, but that's still a looooot of junk. They are not junk. They're still RU's main battle tank. And Poland's are better thanks to both modernization and better maintenance. Those 200 tanks will matter.
There are ton of variants of T-72s. Military Balance for 2021 listed 329 T-72A/T-72M1 in Polish stockpile, and I think it's those tanks that are sent into Ukraine (since PT-91 Twardy is still in active service in Polish formations, though it's being steadily replaced by Leopard 2A4/2A5 variants). Counting Polish tank battalions and comparing them to a number of Leopards, PT-91s and old T-72s I believe the latter ones are all held in reserve (Edit: actually not, found info that some battalions still equiped with T-72M1s).
And for a good reason, because T-72A/T-72M1 (actually T-72M1 is an export version of T-72A) is, well, junk by modern standarts. While PT-91 is more or less similar to T-72B3 (which is current most used T-72 modification of Russian Army), T-72M1 is way less efficent. While they all feature basically the same gun (though T-72B3 loading mechanism was adjusted to use longer rounds, thus improving the penetration of sabot rounds), PT-91 and T-72B3 both have much more capable fire control systems, reactive armor, new engines and, most importantly - new sights, including thermal ones. T-72M1 is much more lacking in terms of visibility, especially during night combat.
Still, they will be able to provide fire support during the day (and it's summer, so days are getting longer). And at least Ukraine has capabilities to maintain, supply and repair such vehicles. Which will be much harder with the proposed delieveries of Marders, Leopards 1A5 and Weasels.
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Russian Federation610 Posts
Actually, seeing that there are a lot of Polish people here, I've got couple of questions:
1) Are there any grounds for rumors about proposed Polish-Ukrainian alliance (or even union)? Saw couple of such posts in Telegram, but don't know how serious they are.
2) Is it possible that Polish military could enter Western Ukraine as peacekeeping/buffer/whatever force, either with invitation from Ukrainian government, or without it (especially if things on the Eastern front will go badly for Ukraine)?
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Not really. I mean, historically speaking there are grounds for such thinking becuase of nostalgia for PLC times. But we live in a different age now. If we were to invade Ukraine we wouldn't be giving them tanks and support. And for peaceful union, Ukrainians would first need to want that. Which they don't. There is still some bad blood left from around WWII times.
Also if we were to go in alone, we would exit NATO umbrella which doesn't really make sense.
There were some delusional fringe people pushing such narratives at the beginning of the invasion, but they are mostly useful idiots or are in Moscows pockets. Right now, this is not part of discourse in Poland.
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On April 29 2022 22:00 Ardias wrote:
Actually, seeing that there are a lot of Polish people here, I've got couple of questions:
1) Are there any grounds for rumors about proposed Polish-Ukrainian alliance (or even union)? Saw couple of such posts in Telegram, but don't know how serious they are.
2) Is it possible that Polish military could enter Western Ukraine as peacekeeping/buffer/whatever force, either with invitation from Ukrainian government, or without it (especially if things on the Eastern front will go badly for Ukraine)?
I haven't heard anything about alliance and wouldn't consider these rumours noteworthy. Regarding your second point, I don't see possibility (and will) of any action of Polish military that would be done independently and without NATO approval. So no to both in my information bubble.
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On April 29 2022 22:00 Ardias wrote:
Actually, seeing that there are a lot of Polish people here, I've got couple of questions:
1) Are there any grounds for rumors about proposed Polish-Ukrainian alliance (or even union)? Saw couple of such posts in Telegram, but don't know how serious they are.
2) Is it possible that Polish military could enter Western Ukraine as peacekeeping/buffer/whatever force, either with invitation from Ukrainian government, or without it (especially if things on the Eastern front will go badly for Ukraine)?
I have seen some reports of russian officials saying something that Poland is getting ready to take over the Lviv region or sth, as far as I am concerned this is a made up story aimed at driving a wedge between Poland and Ukraine. Not only there is no political will in Poland to do this, our people would not stand for this if our government tried it (which they won't). Also I don't think Poland is militarily capable of capturing and holding this much territory.
A political union is also extremely unlikely seeing Ukraine's stance on sovereignty and territorial integrity. Such rumors are also propaganda or an invention of some fringe groups.
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United States42717 Posts
On April 29 2022 23:22 JimmiC wrote:
Unless you are a megalomaniac the math does not work now a days for this kind of shit anyways. It makes everyone poorer. At this point if Russia loses they gained nothing and huge costs, if they "win" they have gained territory and have to rebuild a shit ton of infrastructure with less money because of all the costs of the war and sanctions. This is why actual democracies basically never invade people for territorial gains. Even when the US rolled over Iraq they did not make it part of the US and it was the polar opposite of profitable. Things are too damn expensive and weapons do way to much damage to make this sort of thing profitable. The payback if there ever is one will be long after those in charge are dead and dynastic rule does not really happen anymore and certainly will not if you spread yourself to thin.
You don’t need an activity to be overall value creating for it to create value for specific people. It’s the classic example of the broken window. The glazier will rationally pay a child to go through the town throwing rocks at windows. The town gets poorer but the glazier and child do well.
That does not mean that in this case the war is enriching Putin but it absolutely means that capitalist democracies can and do routinely enter conflicts with a profit motive. Conflict makes one group of people very rich while making the general population poorer. If anything the problem is worse in capitalist democracies where the power is diluted between dozens of monied interests. In an autocracy the autocrat generally suffers the impact of the externalities because he’s already stolen everything, there’s less cost that he can externalize.
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EPT
