EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 579
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2652 Posts
On September 13 2023 02:59 Ardias wrote: Russia is using more and more of their new JDAM kits with range of few dozen kilometers. Since they mostly target stuff on or near the frontline, short range AA of AFU can't get them, and long range AA is a) overstretched on long front and rear areas b) depleted throughout the war c) is a juicy target for Lancets if brought too close. AIM-120 missiles with airborne carriers would be a big help in that regard, as well as in contesting Russian fighter superiority. Ukraine simply doesn't have an efficient counterpart to Russian R-77 and R-37 AA missiles atm. Most of the US long range anti ground weapons are air launched which could also be important. Also air-ship missiles. RBS 15 mk III has a 200km+ range. With full radar coverage of the black sea from AWACS anti ship missiles would be ridiculously dangerous to Russian ships. | ||
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Lmui
Canada6215 Posts
Su-24s which have been heavily used to launch storm shadows (Not officially integrated, but odds are similar weaponry will be provided/integrated by the time they're available) MiG-29 used to launch Harm/JDAM It would be nice to use them for anti-air patrols, but that probably requires more aircraft than they have. Russia has 8 aircraft in the air 24/7 IIRC, just for anti-air which isn't something that the F-16s can match. Being able to threaten helicopters on the frontline would be ideal, but it's a target of opportunity more so than a primary function. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5656 Posts
https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/a-difficult-but-necessary-decision/ Russian politicians keep blabbering about the West allegedly being determined to destroy Russia. While we had no such intentions, they may eventually force us to. | ||
KwarK
United States43232 Posts
The west knows as well as anyone what a nuke is and how scary it is. The problem is that you can’t simply give into nuclear blackmail every time it’s brought up, you have to recognize that “is this worth killing everyone over” is a question for both sides, not just one. The west has been repeatedly saying “yeah, sure, whatever buddy, we’re ready to all die for this” because Russia has been saying “we’re prepared to kill everyone over this” over things which quite frankly everyone knows they’re not. The real lesson is to be honest about your nuclear red lines and don’t make threats you’re not prepared to go through with. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation612 Posts
On September 13 2023 03:56 JimmiC wrote: There is small gains being reported most days by Ukraine, or targets hit. Is that sort of news happening in Russia in the other direction? I can’t imagine a slowly losing or even stalemate is popular at home. Like I’d the Russian state media and the bloggers suggesting that they are close to a break through or is that hope to just sacrifice men and out wait the western support? What do average Russians even gain from that? I would assume at some point a quiet drum beat towards we killed the Nazis let’s go home and stop losing so much has to pick up steam no? Russia considers currently controlled Ukrainian territory as its own now, so it can't "go home", it's already at home defending. There was even an election weekend amidst all this. Russian POV in short is that Ukrainian offensive achives nothing beside few villages, and Ukraine is suffering grave losses in return. Also that there could be no peace talks until UA offensive is on, there is a steady flow of new contract soldiers, and no need for a second wave of mobilization. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5656 Posts
On September 13 2023 05:14 Ardias wrote: Russia considers currently controlled Ukrainian territory as its own now, so it can't "go home", it's already at home defending. There was even an election weekend amidst all this. Russian POV in short is that Ukrainian offensive achives nothing beside few villages, and Ukraine is suffering grave losses in return. Also that there could be no peace talks until UA offensive is on, there is a steady flow of new contract soldiers, and no need for a second wave of mobilization. None of which has any connection to reality whatsoever, lol. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11632 Posts
On September 13 2023 05:14 Ardias wrote: Russia considers currently controlled Ukrainian territory as its own now, so it can't "go home", it's already at home defending. There was even an election weekend amidst all this. Russian POV in short is that Ukrainian offensive achives nothing beside few villages, and Ukraine is suffering grave losses in return. Also that there could be no peace talks until UA offensive is on, there is a steady flow of new contract soldiers, and no need for a second wave of mobilization. Yeah, but we all know that Russia might see that Ukrainian "Russian" territory as "Russian", but they also know it is not really "Russian". Once it is no longer palpatable to defend it as if it were Russia, it will stop being Russian, and will never have been Russian. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8166 Posts
On September 13 2023 04:34 maybenexttime wrote: An opinion piece by a senior Kremlin official advocating for a preemptive nuclear strike on a NATO country (from June this year; not sure if it was already discussed here): https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/a-difficult-but-necessary-decision/ Russian politicians keep blabbering about the West allegedly being determined to destroy Russia. While we had no such intentions, they may eventually force us to. It's just the usual sabler rattling. Generally, when someone from Russia says something, the exact opposite is true, so read this as "we have no plans for preemptive strikes". Both US and Russia knows that no matter how many nukes you send, there will always be submarines and silos in other countries left around to strike back. I don't think there are many people around who are willing to end the human species. The biggest fear and close calls we've always had have never been intentional strikes, even during conflicts, but unintentional false alarms that leads to further strikes. We have been a single man deciding "nah, this is probably not right" away from nuclear conflict several times already throughout the last few decades. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Dan HH
Romania9137 Posts
On September 13 2023 05:01 KwarK wrote: One can only hope that he’s a talking head rather than someone in a position of influence because that’s some crazy shit. His argument that Russia’s constant nuclear rhetoric hasn’t worked, not because they set their red lines absurdly high but rather because the west is unaware of what a nuke is, is nuts. The west knows as well as anyone what a nuke is and how scary it is. The problem is that you can’t simply give into nuclear blackmail every time it’s brought up, you have to recognize that “is this worth killing everyone over” is a question for both sides, not just one. The west has been repeatedly saying “yeah, sure, whatever buddy, we’re ready to all die for this” because Russia has been saying “we’re prepared to kill everyone over this” over things which quite frankly everyone knows they’re not. The real lesson is to be honest about your nuclear red lines and don’t make threats you’re not prepared to go through with. His actual argument is the same one Medvedev has been yelling every other week, it's basically: "Hey Europeans, look how loco we are, you're lucky Putin has barely been able to hold us back so far, pls tell your leaders to stop helping Ukraine." Obviously if the goal were to convince Putin to preemptively nuke Poland that would have been done behind closed doors. I mean the guy even cut out the middlemen and published this directly in English, just in case you weren't sure it's meant strictly for a Western audience. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17435 Posts
On September 13 2023 07:24 Dan HH wrote: His actual argument is the same one Medvedev has been yelling every other week, it's basically: "Hey Europeans, look how loco we are, you're lucky Putin has barely been able to hold us back so far, pls tell your leaders to stop helping Ukraine." Obviously if the goal were to convince Putin to preemptively nuke Poland that would have been done behind closed doors. I mean the guy even cut out the middlemen and published this directly in English, just in case you weren't sure it's meant strictly for a Western audience. Zizek also addressed that: | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation612 Posts
On September 13 2023 06:20 JimmiC wrote: I get that is the governments public point of view, but can it not be rolled back as quickly as it was enacted? Like are Russian people really made that Ukraine has taken Russian land? It seems like they would know that is just political and could easily be talked around. Crimean seems like that would be a harder sell to give back, but it is still very recent. Depends on person in question. Some people consider these territories fully Ukrainian and occupied by Russia; some consider them Russian and thus worth defending; some recognize that majority in Donetsk/Lugansk/Crimea don't want to be a part of Ukraine anymore, but they don't want to bear economic hardships and the risk of mobilization, so they are fine with Ukraine taking them back and doing whatever they want there. A lot of people simply don't care. This conflict of opinions is probably why there is no second wave of mobilization and Kremlin relies solely on volunteers - to not stir up the public. For ordinary Russian, besides higher prices, life is basically the same as before, so many people simply aren't concerned much about what is happening, unless it affects them in particular. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany6995 Posts
On September 13 2023 04:34 maybenexttime wrote: An opinion piece by a senior Kremlin official advocating for a preemptive nuclear strike on a NATO country (from June this year; not sure if it was already discussed here): https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/a-difficult-but-necessary-decision/ Russian politicians keep blabbering about the West allegedly being determined to destroy Russia. While we had no such intentions, they may eventually force us to. I love that he writes this acrticle as if he would surely survive nuclear holocaust | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17435 Posts
On September 13 2023 14:17 Ardias wrote: Depends on person in question. Some people consider these territories fully Ukrainian and occupied by Russia; some consider them Russian and thus worth defending; some recognize that majority in Donetsk/Lugansk/Crimea don't want to be a part of Ukraine anymore, but they don't want to bear economic hardships and the risk of mobilization, so they are fine with Ukraine taking them back and doing whatever they want there. A lot of people simply don't care. This conflict of opinions is probably why there is no second wave of mobilization and Kremlin relies solely on volunteers - to not stir up the public. For ordinary Russian, besides higher prices, life is basically the same as before, so many people simply aren't concerned much about what is happening, unless it affects them in particular. I guess some things did change though. Consumer electronics in Russia went from 40% Chinese to 95% Chinese. Car imports also now mainly sourced from China. It might not be visible now since it's been only 2 years of this jump but I think it'll be more and more noticeable as reserves of western stuff dry up and Russia will be literally taken over by Chinese products. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18120 Posts
On September 13 2023 20:51 Manit0u wrote: I guess some things did change though. Consumer electronics in Russia went from 40% Chinese to 95% Chinese. Car imports also now mainly sourced from China. It might not be visible now since it's been only 2 years of this jump but I think it'll be more and more noticeable as reserves of western stuff dry up and Russia will be literally taken over by Chinese products. But does that matter to the average Russian? Surely there'll always be a repair shop where someone has figured out how.to repurpose old Philips blenders to use spare parts, as well as some creative use of 3d printing to replace the disappeared official supply of Philips spare parts. And eventually everyone will have switched from Philips to Xiaomi appliances, with no real impact on the end user... unless the sanctions of technology and science on China start to have a far greater impact on their competitive position than the little pinpricks of current sanctions. But even then we're talking at least 20 years of a new cold war for anything to be noticeable and furthermore, there's no guarantee the west can win that... the world is a very different place from the 1960s (and there was no guarantee back then either!) | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17435 Posts
On September 13 2023 22:09 JimmiC wrote: This shows musk was wrong that attacking Russian navy would trigger nuclear war. To be honest Musk hasn't been right about pretty much anything ever. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation612 Posts
On September 13 2023 20:51 Manit0u wrote: I guess some things did change though. Consumer electronics in Russia went from 40% Chinese to 95% Chinese. Car imports also now mainly sourced from China. It might not be visible now since it's been only 2 years of this jump but I think it'll be more and more noticeable as reserves of western stuff dry up and Russia will be literally taken over by Chinese products. As Acrofales correctly pointed out - there is no big change for average consumer. My wife has decided to buy a new phone recently, since previous one (Samsung) was already shabby. She went and bought ZTE, and it didn't bother her a single bit. It had better camera, more memory, etc. etc. and she was totally happy with that, despite switching from Korean to Chinese phone. Same goes for cars. Yeah, if you want brand new car that isn't Lada or UAZ (Russia does manufacture cars too, so there is competition in that), you go to Chinese brands, and people do. I've noticed rapid increase of Chery, Geely and Great Wall cars in my city. | ||
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