Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 498

On July 20 2023 01:47 JimmiC wrote:
It will be interesting to see how it plays out, I’m not sure Russia has the power to enforce it and it is a wildly unpopular choice that is only going erode support. Not to mention increase western support for Ukraine.

On July 20 2023 02:45 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:


Best play could be for the rest of the world to say "Fine. You called it, now enforce it".

There are really not any rules when it comes to international politics but "paper blockades" have been considered illegal for a long time. That's when you declare a blockade but lack the power for full enforcement. Basically in order for neutral parties to consider the blockade legal you are supposed to be able to block ALL ships.

So the rest of the world could lean back and let a couple of grain ship pass through the Bosporus, hang a tight left into Romanian and Bulgarian national waters and enter Ukrainian (or international waters) within eyesight of the Ukrainian coastline. I'd hate to be the Russian captain who is supposed to stop and search a ship in that location...

Of course they could just send a radio message ordering all merchant ships in the black sea to divert to Sevastopol and start lobbing long range anti ship missiles if they don't obey. But that's not very traditional and it feels like a good way to get the entire black sea turned into a no go zone for your ships and aircraft or get into a real war with someone.

On July 20 2023 02:07 Zaros wrote:
Don’t really understand the logic of these attacks, it’s not going to impact Ukraine in military terms that all this grain is destroyed. If it’s sitting in Odessa silos then it was bound for export.

This is just going to piss off the rest of the world particularly Africa which depends on the grain. What does Russia actually gain by doing this other than destruction for destruction sake.

Maybe pushes food prices up further and encourages western support to erode, but that seems incredibly desperate.

On July 20 2023 01:47 JimmiC wrote:
It will be interesting to see how it plays out, I’m not sure Russia has the power to enforce it and it is a wildly unpopular choice that is only going erode support. Not to mention increase western support for Ukraine.

On July 20 2023 03:17 Ardias wrote:

He doesn't need to. Per RU MoD press release:
"Any ships moving through Black Sea into Ukrainian ports are considered potential transporters of military cargo".
However I agree that it's yet to be seen if it would be enforced in practice. As well as if anyone tries to go through anyway. Hugging territorial waters is an option indeed. Still, it would most likely deter many private contractors from attempting to move in.

Main Russian public concern was that ships inbound to Odessa were bringing military suppliers. Real (or main) reason - most likely to cut Ukraine from profits of grain trade, to decrease their capability to fund the war. Especially considering that Ukraine's European neighbours are still banning Ukraine's grain import as well.

Widely unpopular where? Within Russia pro-westerners do not care, and patriots of different kinds are applauding it in unison.
If it's about Africa, then Russia made a lot of steps to assure that African nations will be promptly supplied by grain and fertilizers in any case.
https://press.un.org/en/2022/sgsm21608.doc.htm
https://tass.com/politics/1625355
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/inside-russia-s-fertiliser-diplomacy-and-kenya-s-place-in-it--4257646
https://www.drycargomag.com/if-ukraine-grain-port-deal-expires-russia-to-supply-africa
https://www.africanews.com/2023/03/20/grain-deal-russia-ready-to-send-food-for-free-to-african-countries-in-need//
There certainly would be some fallout, but I'm not sure if it would be too big (if the blockade holds of course).

If it's about West, I doubt anyone in Kremlin (or even in Russia in general) cares too much at this point.

Russia will consider all vessels traveling on the Black Sea heading to Ukrainian ports as “potential military cargo carriers” starting from Thursday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday.

The ministry declared in a statement on Telegram that a number of areas in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the international waters of the Black Sea as “temporarily dangerous for navigation,” adding that the flag countries of ships traveling to Ukrainian ports will be considered parties to the conflict on Kyiv’s side.

The statement said: “In connection with the cessation of the functioning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the сlosing of the maritime humanitarian corridor, from 00.00 Moscow time on 20 July 2023, all vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo. Accordingly, the countries of such vessels will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime. In addition, a number of sea areas in the north-western and south-eastern parts of the international waters of the Black Sea have been declared temporarily dangerous for navigation. Corresponding information warnings on the withdrawal of safety guarantees to mariners have been issued in accordance with the established procedure.”

This comes as Ukraine said on Wednesday Russia damaged grain export infrastructure in overnight strikes focused on two of its Black Sea ports. The Russian attack on Odesa for the second consecutive night came after Moscow quit on Monday the Black Sea Grain initiative – a year-old deal allowing the safe passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea.

The declaration signifies a heightened level of aggression by Russia. By considering all such vessels as potential military cargo carriers, Russia is indicating its suspicion and intention to closely scrutinize and potentially interfere with their activities. By designating specific areas of the Black Sea as temporarily dangerous for navigation, Russia is asserting control over those regions and asserting its authority to monitor and potentially disrupt maritime traffic. This move effectively establishes a zone where vessels traveling to Ukrainian ports may face increased risks and encounters with Russian forces.

Russian agents who were allegedly planning to sabotage trains with weapons and humanitarian aid to Ukraine have been exposed in Poland.

According to Gazeta Polska, citing its sources, the uncovered Russian network, including its 66 case volumes, had plans to sabotage trains carrying weapons and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

The risk of direct attacks apparently prompted the Polish special services to initiate arrests. "For this reason, the first arrests were made precisely at that time, not any other. The risk of attacks was too significant to continue monitoring the group's actions," shared an anonymous source familiar with the case materials.

Journalists also learned that the intelligence network was relatively "fresh" as it was created in early 2023.

The agents reportedly were instructed directly from Moscow and were compensated mainly in cryptocurrencies for executing assigned tasks.

This exposed network is currently considered the largest of its kind in modern Polish history.

In March, Poland announced the liquidation of a spy network operating in favour of Russia. Nine individuals were initially arrested as part of the operation, later increasing to 15. Among them were citizens of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, according to media reports.

The fifteenth individual arrested was a professional Russian hockey player.

On July 21 2023 00:18 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Again would this not, if had been successful, Poland triggering Article 5....?

Also the 60 tons of Grain that Russia destroyed during the bombing of Odessa, was destined for China. While at the same time the US believes Russia has plans to attack Civilian ships in the Black Sea and blaming Ukraine.



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