EPTYou can invoke a collective response on an alliance level without that response being war.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 499
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KwarK
United States44449 Posts
You can invoke a collective response on an alliance level without that response being war. | ||
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Simberto
Germany12086 Posts
The agents reportedly were instructed directly from Moscow and were compensated mainly in cryptocurrencies for executing assigned tasks. Finally, someone found a use case for bitcoin! | ||
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Nezgar
Germany535 Posts
On July 21 2023 02:04 Excludos wrote: Russia still belives that they can just do whatever they want, and if caught, can just go "Niiiet. Not us! It vas smoll green men vho happen to speak Ruski!". They still haven't figured out that absolutely no one believes a word that is coming out of their mouths The eternal Russian innocence is one of their primary ideologies, so it doesn't matter to them whether anyone else believes it - they believe it and that is all that matters. That concept is one of their most important pillars that their dreams of Russian imperialism and fascism rests on. They have, at any cost, avoided any serious self reflection and until the world around them forces them to face that reality, this will continue. Power is the only language they understand. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22705 Posts
On July 21 2023 02:04 Excludos wrote: Russia knows no one believes them. But they also trust in no one being willing to actually seriously hurt them in return. Russia still belives that they can just do whatever they want, and if caught, can just go "Niiiet. Not us! It vas smoll green men vho happen to speak Ruski!". They still haven't figured out that absolutely no one believes a word that is coming out of their mouths And to be fair, they are right. What would the West do if Russia did actually sabotage shipments? Another saction packet? Maybe a few more missiles for Ukraine? So long as the West isn't willing to go into direct military conflict with Russia, which isn't an unreasonable position considering the potential consequences, what can you really do? Remember Russia orchestrated a chemical weapons attack in the UK in the not so distant past and we didn't go to war over that. Its kind of hard to top that. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8281 Posts
On July 21 2023 03:52 Gorsameth wrote: Russia knows no one believes them. But they also trust in no one being willing to actually seriously hurt them in return. And to be fair, they are right. What would the West do if Russia did actually sabotage shipments? Another saction packet? Maybe a few more missiles for Ukraine? So long as the West isn't willing to go into direct military conflict with Russia, which isn't an unreasonable position considering the potential consequences, what can you really do? Remember Russia orchestrated a chemical weapons attack in the UK in the not so distant past and we didn't go to war over that. Its kind of hard to top that. Depends entirely on how it happens. The chemical attack was before the conflict, when things could still be resolved peacefully through diplomats behind closed doors. An attack on a civilian ship in the middle of the conflict is not going to be resolved through diplomacy, it's going to be resolved through force. Exactly how will remain to be seen. If I was a betting man, I would bet the first attack on a civilian ship from a NATO nation would be resolved through military navy intervention in the form of escorts and overwatch and a strong warning. The second attack would be resolved through sinking the entire Russian Navy. But I'm not in the mind of leaders, so I don't know how hard they'll respond to it; but there will 100% be a response. | ||
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Yurie
12186 Posts
On July 21 2023 06:31 Excludos wrote: Depends entirely on how it happens. The chemical attack was before the conflict, when things could still be resolved peacefully through diplomats behind closed doors. An attack on a civilian ship in the middle of the conflict is not going to be resolved through diplomacy, it's going to be resolved through force. Exactly how will remain to be seen. If I was a betting man, I would bet the first attack on a civilian ship from a NATO nation would be resolved through military navy intervention in the form of escorts and overwatch and a strong warning. The second attack would be resolved through sinking the entire Russian Navy. But I'm not in the mind of leaders, so I don't know how hard they'll respond to it; but there will 100% be a response. So the proper response is to sink a few ships under non-NATO flags, preferably with no NATO citizens on board. This would drive up insurance costs and feeling of risk for employees so much that no civilian ships would travel the route. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanker_War I do not recall such measures implemented, even though it was for years and involved dozens of ships (including US ones). Also a point about NATO or non-NATO ships - most of civilian traffic runs under different banana republic flags (Panama, Liberia, Seychells and all that, due to a favorable maritime and tax legislation there) regardless of actual owner of the ship. So I wouldn't be eager to expect 6th Fleet in the Black Sea any time soon. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Also reports that Ukraine has used cluster munitions for the first time. Supposedly killed famous Russian blogger Mikhail Luchin. | ||
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pmp10
3401 Posts
If this continues there might not be any physical infrastructure to resume grain exports. Not coincidentally Putin has hinted that resumption of grain-deal is possible if Russian demands are met. The whole thing looks more and more like hard bargaining to get Russian exports excluded from sanctions. | ||
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r00ty
Germany1101 Posts
It's not perfect, the capacity is not quite there yet and we'll still have price hikes but this will hit the middle east and Africa a lot harder. I'm looking forward to see the glorious Russian navy in action. Do their anti missile systems work now? They didn't on the Moskva... I'm quite confident they'll be ruining their reputation as hard as the landforces did. | ||
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FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Netherlands30548 Posts
I think he was attacking the russian ministry of defense loads on his social media, but he's been doing that for a long time. Wonder if this is part of the defense minister taking more control of the critics or if he did anything specific that angered them too much and went over the line. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
 Edit: I have now seen some confirmation. This seems to be true. | ||
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JohnHoldsworth
2 Posts
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KwarK
United States44449 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Yurie
12186 Posts
You don't need to get most ships, get a few and then use PR to scare the rest away. Leaving only military convoys, reducing launch platforms for missiles on the Russian side. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22705 Posts
On July 21 2023 22:11 Yurie wrote: What I saw was a Ukrainian statement that was basically a direct copy of the Russian one. That any Russian vessels would be considered military shipments and suffer the risks thereof.Saw some claims that Ukraine wants to do a counter blockade against Russia. Considering they have taken down a flagship and hit a well defended bridge via the water it is a somewhat credible threat. Will be interesting if they start hitting Russian shipments as well. Forcing them to export via the west or east ports, making the trade routes for grain longer and thus more expensive. You don't need to get most ships, get a few and then use PR to scare the rest away. Leaving only military convoys, reducing launch platforms for missiles on the Russian side. https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2023/07/20/zayava-ministerstva-oboroni-ukraini/ | ||
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KwarK
United States44449 Posts
The consensus for the last 30 years was that you can trade with your enemies and as long as you both benefit from the trade you can use that relationship to keep the peace. China has done very well from that consensus, it pushed its interests and got away with breaking the HK deal etc. because the west believed in the system. Putin broke that consensus for everyone and now the West, which is still by far the strongest group of powers in the world, is thinking that they need to be ready to smash these dictators if the get out of line. And the West have the means, China can’t win that game, they preferred not to have to play. They are not appreciative of this development triggered by Putin. Lastly there’s the spectre of nuclear Japan/Taiwan. We now live in a world in which a nuclear power invaded a smaller non nuclear neighbour and threatened nuclear annihilation against everyone else if they got involved. If Russia is allowed to win then Taiwan will build an independent nuclear deterrent. They must. Basically Putin has fucked everything up for dictators of expansionist empires. | ||
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