EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 440
| Forum Index > General Forum |
NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
RvB
Netherlands6191 Posts
| ||
|
pmp10
3246 Posts
On May 24 2023 09:57 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: I'm confused what does "Israeli-style protection" even mean? Also to be even remotely credible France would have to deploy troops somewhere in Ukraine. Most likely another euphemism for the 'hedgehog model'. They plan to provide weapons and training that is supposed to make Ukraine unassailable. Of course they have few weapons to spare in the mid-term, Ukraine cannot afford their upkeep and chances are they would at best restore capability that Ukraine used to have. None of this is certain to deter Russia but that's about as far as the west is willing to go. | ||
zatic
Zurich15313 Posts
On May 24 2023 14:20 RvB wrote: From what I understand it means a very close alliance with security guarantees, transfer of weapons, technology, and training. It's just one step short of joining NATO. The way I understand it it's about explicitly ruling out NATO membership, but providing far reaching security guarantees anyway. | ||
|
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The head of the Russian private army Wagner says his force lost more than 20,000 fighters in the drawn-out battle for Bakhmut, with about 20% of the 50,000 Russian convicts he recruited to fight in the 15-month war dying in the eastern Ukrainian city. The figure was in stark contrast with widely disputed claims from Moscow that it lost just over 6,000 troops in the war, and is higher than the official estimate of the Soviet losses in the Afghanistan war of 15,000 troops between 1979-89. Ukraine hasn’t said how many of its soldiers have died since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Analysts believe the nine-month fight for Bakhmut alone has cost the lives of tens of thousands of soldiers, among them convicts who reportedly received little training before being sent to the front. Russia’s invasion goal of “demilitarizing” Ukraine has backfired because Kyiv’s military has become stronger with the supply of weapons and training by its Western allies, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an interview published late Tuesday with Konstantin Dolgov, a pro-Kremlin political strategist. Prigozhin also said the Kremlin’s forces have killed civilians during the war, something Moscow has repeatedly and vehemently denied. Prigozhin, a wealthy businessman with longtime links to Russian President Vladimir Putin, is known for his bluster — often spiced with obscenities — and has previously made unverifiable claims, some of which he later backtracked on. Earlier this month, his spokespeople published a video of him shouting, swearing and pointing at about 30 uniformed bodies lying on the ground, saying they were Wagner fighters who died in a single day. He claimed the Russian Defense Ministry had starved his men of ammunition and threatened to give up the fight for Bakhmut. He also said in Tuesday’s interview it was possible that Kyiv’s anticipated counteroffensive in coming weeks, given continued Western support, might push Russian forces out of southern and eastern Ukraine as well as annexed Crimea. Source | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
zeo
Serbia6268 Posts
On May 24 2023 22:10 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Wagner boss Prigozhin has stated that he lost over 20k in attempts to secure Bakhmut. Also states that the Russian military has committed war crimes, and will could lose access to Crimea. The dude is tempting fate, or at least making himself so well known in order to avoid a certain fate. Source Interesting, Prigozhin never mentioned losing over 20,000 fighters in that interview from yesterday. A short summery from Telegram this seems to be the whole interview (in Russian): Prigozhin declares the figures of losses of the AFU 50,000 irretrievable. They practically coincide with the calculations of the War Tears project, which, according to its methodology, gave 55,000 AFU losses, based on the calculation of the established losses of the AFU units noted in Artemovsk and regional obituaries. Wagner's losses amounted to up to 20% of the total killed and up to 20% wounded. At the peak, the number of PMCs "Wagner" reached up to 50 000, according to Prigozhin. The AFU group defending Artemovsk numbered up to 82 000 people. (which coincides with the estimates that estimated the AFU grouping in the Artemovsk area was at 75-85 000 people. Prigozhin main statements from the interview: - We fought in Bakhmut against superior forces, destroyed about 50,000 AFU military and wounded up to 70,000 - The Wagner PMCs had 3.2 times fewer dead than the AFU, and about 2 times fewer wounded. - The PMCs in Artemovsk had 50,000 people at the best moments, and the AFU had 82,000, and the ratio for the assault should be 3 to 1 for the stormers. - During the operation, I selected 50,000 prisoners, 20% of them died, another 20% were injured. - The goal of Artemovsk was not Artemovsk itself, but the "Bakhmut meat grinder". And in Artemovsk, we destroyed everyone we were supposed to destroy, completed the task. - The task was completed due to the highest level of organization. - And we have our own: planes, helicopters, air defense, artillery, MLRS, reconnaissance and even our own satellite reconnaissance. A quick search and it seems this story originated from the Moscow Times, thought they make no mention in their article of the number of dead AFU or how they came to the number of 20,000. 3.2x less than 50k would be 15,625 dead (edit: 10.000 of which would be prisoners), and something like 35k wounded on the side of Wagner. He is making a pretty lofty claim here though, 50k prisoners is 10% of the Russian prison population. Prigozhin is partly to blame for this tbh, talking so much shit part of it is bound to be cherry picked and misquoted. A very interesting take on what information was extracted from this interview for that AP article though, seeing as it would be read by people with no way of easily finding out what was said in the original they could have been more.... open. One more thing 'Also states that the Russian military has committed war crimes' Do you have a direct quote of what he said exactly, the words? I can't find anything anywhere ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDIT: Also a bonus Vice article for those that have forgotten about the Belgorod filler arc already: Anti-Putin Militias Celebrating Attacks on Russia Are Filled With Neo-Nazis Pictures of RDK celebrating in Belgorod flooded social media. In one, a Russian man named Aleksandr Skachkov stands next to a captured BTR-82A with the flag of the RDK unfurled next to him. On his chest is a patch depicting a white hooded Ku Klux Klansman wielding a gun. According to reporting from Bellingcat, Ukraine arrested Skachkov in 2020 during a raid on a group of people who were translating and selling the Christchurch Shooter’s manifesto. https://www.vice.com/en/article/3akdpy/anti-putin-militias-celebrating-attacks-on-russia-are-filled-with-neo-nazis------------- In addition to being part of the RDK, Levkin is also the founder of Asgardsrei, an annual black metal festival in Ukraine that serves as a networking event for neo-Nazis. VICE interviewed Levkin in 2019 and asked him if he was a national socialist. “Yes, sure!” He replied. According to Colborne, RDK is a hardcore fascist group that does not hide its political views. “RDK describes itself (it did today) with ‘right wing conservative political views and traditional beliefs’ but at the core it's led by a Russian neo-Nazi and its most prominent members, at least in terms of getting attention and promoting themselves, are also Russian neo-Nazi,” he said. “And I don't say 'neo-Nazi' as a casual slur—these are people who have literally organized Hitler worship nights, written poems about Hitler, and lead bands whose names and songs are about Hitler. Now, as I understand it there may be increasingly non-neo-Nazis, and non-far-right, soldiers joining its small ranks, but it's clear what the RDK is rooted in.” EDIT 2: That Bellincat article mentioned in the Vice text on the Ukrainian/Russian translations of the Christchurch shooters manifesto is a wild read | ||
|
maybenexttime
Poland5452 Posts
| ||
|
schaf
Germany1326 Posts
On May 25 2023 01:49 zeo wrote: Interesting, Prigozhin never mentioned losing over 20,000 fighters in that interview from yesterday. A short summery from Telegram this seems to be the whole interview (in Russian): Prigozhin declares the figures of losses of the AFU 50,000 irretrievable. They practically coincide with the calculations of the War Tears project, which, according to its methodology, gave 55,000 AFU losses, based on the calculation of the established losses of the AFU units noted in Artemovsk and regional obituaries. Wagner's losses amounted to up to 20% of the total killed and up to 20% wounded. At the peak, the number of PMCs "Wagner" reached up to 50 000, according to Prigozhin. The AFU group defending Artemovsk numbered up to 82 000 people. (which coincides with the estimates that estimated the AFU grouping in the Artemovsk area was at 75-85 000 people. Prigozhin main statements from the interview: - We fought in Bakhmut against superior forces, destroyed about 50,000 AFU military and wounded up to 70,000 - The Wagner PMCs had 3.2 times fewer dead than the AFU, and about 2 times fewer wounded. - The PMCs in Artemovsk had 50,000 people at the best moments, and the AFU had 82,000, and the ratio for the assault should be 3 to 1 for the stormers. - During the operation, I selected 50,000 prisoners, 20% of them died, another 20% were injured. - The goal of Artemovsk was not Artemovsk itself, but the "Bakhmut meat grinder". And in Artemovsk, we destroyed everyone we were supposed to destroy, completed the task. - The task was completed due to the highest level of organization. - And we have our own: planes, helicopters, air defense, artillery, MLRS, reconnaissance and even our own satellite reconnaissance. A quick search and it seems this story originated from the Moscow Times, thought they make no mention in their article of the number of dead AFU or how they came to the number of 20,000. 3.2x less than 50k would be 15,625 dead (edit: 10.000 of which would be prisoners), and something like 35k wounded on the side of Wagner. He is making a pretty lofty claim here though, 50k prisoners is 10% of the Russian prison population. Prigozhin is partly to blame for this tbh, talking so much shit part of it is bound to be cherry picked and misquoted. A very interesting take on what information was extracted from this interview for that AP article though, seeing as it would be read by people with no way of easily finding out what was said in the original they could have been more.... open. One more thing 'Also states that the Russian military has committed war crimes' Do you have a direct quote of what he said exactly, the words? I can't find anything anywhere ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDIT: Also a bonus Vice article for those that have forgotten about the Belgorod filler arc already: Anti-Putin Militias Celebrating Attacks on Russia Are Filled With Neo-Nazis https://www.vice.com/en/article/3akdpy/anti-putin-militias-celebrating-attacks-on-russia-are-filled-with-neo-nazis EDIT 2: That Bellincat article mentioned in the Vice text on the Ukrainian/Russian translations of the Christchurch shooters manifesto is a wild read You know someone's telling the truth when they claim to have a casualty ratio of 3:1 in their favour when attacking an entrenched enemy in an urban environment with poorly trained prisoners. Also in what world is 40% of 50k not 20k? | ||
|
zeo
Serbia6268 Posts
On May 25 2023 03:41 schaf wrote: You know someone's telling the truth when they claim to have a casualty ratio of 3:1 in their favour when attacking an entrenched enemy in an urban environment with poorly trained prisoners. Also in what world is 40% of 50k not 20k? One side vastly outnumbers the other in artillery and shells for said artillery and openly stated that they were in no hurry to take the city, rather to create a killing field. Even surface level searches bring up articles from early December were the following was stated: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner group, has said his troops have primarily centered their efforts on demolishing the Ukrainian army there. “Our task is not Bakhmut itself, but the destruction of the Ukrainian army and the reduction of its combat potential, which has an extremely positive effect on other areas, which is why this operation was dubbed the ‘Bakhmut meat grinder’.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-meat-grinder-deadlock Never once did they state that they would take the town easily, rather reading and listening to their statements since operations for Soledar and Artemovsk began they knew full well how many men and equipment Ukraine had in the area and that the purpose was to pull Ukrainian forces into an unfavorable area like they had done before with Lisichansk and Severodonetsk and grind down everything as long as possible. The overwhelming majority of deaths in this conflict were caused by shelling. Look at the ruins of the city where the AFU was and when they complained about 30-40,000 shells dropping on them each day. These numbers suggest 200 AFU killed each day which is entirely plausible with the mass rotations into the town and surrounding areas daily, while proper medical treatment for the wounded got harder and harder as the battle wore on. Wagner losses are less from artillery and more from assaults and storming AFU positions. I don't know how you read 40% of 50k from the above. He clearly stated Wagner losses were three-point-two times less than the AFU. 3:1 advantage implies peer armies on equal footing. Something that clearly wasn't the case here with Russia being able to deploy their air-force with glide bombs daily during the last month. The narrative that Wagner had large losses while the AFU had none doesn't add up when you start asking yourself where did the 80.000+ Ukrainian troops stationed in the area go if Wagner had such high casualties... and then you start to think about why there is still no 'counter-offensive', those troops simply do not exist anymore. The AFU losses are staggering, they were ordered to fight to the bitter end and they did. Obviously Wagner's losses were not insignificant either. | ||
|
Sermokala
United States13753 Posts
Its Absolutly wild that you're accepting Russian estimates of Ukrainian losses as fact. No one seriously takes the Ukrainian counts for Russian losses as fact either but you think the guy who has been on social media constantly is a reputable source is just incredible. Do you want to add in the regular Russian army losses to the cost in taking the city or do you want to keep pretending that it was all and only Wagner fighting in the battle? Also just assuming that the dates of the battle being August 1st to may 21st is accurate thats 8,790,000 shells to 11,720,000 shells. All for a city of 71 thousand pre-war. And these people thought they would take Kyiv in 3 days. Ukraine has been getting more and more modern equipment and training for their troops as the war goes on while Russia keeps digging out older and older and older equipment at a rate that would make one wonder why there was only one t-34 in the last parade. Small towns in america have more tanks in their parade than russia. Entire brigades equipped and trained in the NATO standard have arrived in the time that the defenders bought with their lives. We know the Ukrainian troops saved for the counter offensive exist beacuse we have seen them arrive in country in the meantime. Russia threw out their wonder weapons on kyiv but now their window of being able to hit anything with anything is now closed with Patriot missles coming into play. | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
maybenexttime
Poland5452 Posts
On May 25 2023 04:29 zeo wrote:I don't know how you read 40% of 50k from the above. He clearly stated Wagner losses were three-point-two times less than the AFU. "During the operation, I selected 50,000 prisoners, 20% of them died, another 20% were injured." That's 20k casualties. If you made the effort to sometimes rub whatever braincells you may have there instead of mindlessly repeating Russian propaganda, you might've noticed that. ;-) | ||
|
Manit0u
Poland17202 Posts
At the peak, the number of PMCs "Wagner" reached up to 50 000, according to Prigozhin. We fought in Bakhmut against superior forces, destroyed about 50,000 AFU military and wounded up to 70,000 The Wagner PMCs had 3.2 times fewer dead than the AFU, and about 2 times fewer wounded. If all of this is true then it would mean that Wagner had 15k dead and 35k wounded, meaning they lost everyone. I wouldn't trust much what Prigozhin says, not sure how well versed he is in military matters considering his restaurateur/caterer background. | ||
|
sertas
Sweden878 Posts
| ||
|
Dan HH
Romania9020 Posts
On May 25 2023 05:48 Manit0u wrote: Those statements in general make little sense... If all of this is true then it would mean that Wagner had 15k dead and 35k wounded, meaning they lost everyone. I wouldn't trust much what Prigozhin says, not sure how well versed he is in military matters considering his restaurateur/caterer background. The wording around the 50k is that it's a snapshot at a non specific time, not the total. Not that it matters much, those ratios are pure fantasy. | ||
|
zatic
Zurich15313 Posts
| ||
|
MJG
United Kingdom792 Posts
BBC now reporting that Wagner have announced their withdrawal from Bakhmut. I suppose that this may or may not mirror what is happening on the ground given Prigozhin's loose relationship with the truth. On the numbers of casualties the BBC report that: "Around half of the 20,000 Wagner fighters to have died in Bakhmut were convicts, Mr Prigozhin said this week. Earlier this month, the US said it believed more than 20,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in the battle for Bakhmut and another 80,000 wounded. The BBC is unable to independently verify the figures." | ||
|
FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Netherlands30548 Posts
Yesterday russians released footage of the warship shooting down the demolition boat at very close range, and said they destroyed all that attacked the ship. But today there's footage from one of the boats that shows it actually reaching the warship at the rear deck. | ||
|
Excludos
Norway7967 Posts
On May 25 2023 20:10 MJG wrote: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65705733 BBC now reporting that Wagner have announced their withdrawal from Bakhmut. I suppose that this may or may not mirror what is happening on the ground given Prigozhin's loose relationship with the truth. On the numbers of casualties the BBC report that: "Around half of the 20,000 Wagner fighters to have died in Bakhmut were convicts, Mr Prigozhin said this week. Earlier this month, the US said it believed more than 20,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in the battle for Bakhmut and another 80,000 wounded. The BBC is unable to independently verify the figures." Nothing says "winning single handedly" and "breaking their backs" like immediately withdrawing from the region Seemed like Occam's Razor rung true yet again | ||
| ||
