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On May 21 2023 02:49 zeo wrote:
And with even pro-Ukraine sources confirming it we can finally say that the largest military battle in modern history has come to a close. We won't know the full extent for years to come but the numbers involved with the information we have now are staggering. This day last year Mariupol operations ended but the Kiev controlled forces and losses inside the city were no more than 8000, thats what was left inside the city when all the exits closed. This time around ten times that number was deployed at at the Soledar-Bahmut theater with massive reinforcements coming in almost continuously.
Wagner managed to single handedly break the back of the Ukrainian army mobilized for the next offensive and with the amount of reinforcements and weaponry flooding into the area on the Ukrainian side the scale of what Wagner achieved at Bahmut - now Artyomovsk, is (and I'll use the word again) staggering. The massive sacrifices of the UAF should not be played down or the lives lost in the city brushed off. Every soldier mobilized and sent to that hell should be cared for by their government while they live (edit: of course, I have no sympathy for the neo-nazis and hardcore nationalists looking only to commit crimes, but the poor people mobilized and sent to grinder did not deserve to have that happen to them and they truly are heroes). Same for everyone that served in Wagner which might not have suffered as heavy losses in hard numbers but percentage-wise they are very much spent.
As for the civilians, its been a long road since the anti-coup protests and subsequent referendum to join the DPR. For the first time since 2014 one of the founding populations centers of the Donbass Republics is back, but what life will look like there now is a question mark. There seems to be a lot of political will inside Russia to fund a Grozny like revival of what will certainly be designated a hero city after the war. Not sure if they will start any work until the Slavyansk-Kramatosk operations come to an end and the city is at a safe range.
Not sure what you're on about. Ukraine has been holding like 2 rows of blocks on the outskirt of town for a while now, while their forces are counter attacking the south and north, aiming to encircle the town. If they pulled out of those two blocks, I'm not sure I would call that a "back broken" or "lost battle for the city". Ukraine has, in fact, made huge progress these last few weeks in the area.
I suggest following this channel for detailed news about the battle(s). It's Pro-Ukrainian, but it talks fairly objectively about all the progress and regress that happens across the line
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On May 21 2023 02:47 sertas wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 02:16 Gorsameth wrote:On May 21 2023 01:47 Excludos wrote:On May 21 2023 01:30 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Why does there have to be logic for Russia to accept a loss when there was no logic to start the war in the first place. They made up a threat from Ukraine or NATO that was not there, made up stories of hatred for Ukrainian people for no reason, they made up a story that they capture it in 3 days.
Just fucking retreat stop the war and make up a new story to lie to the people about why you did win despite retreating. Turn the artillery factories into washing machine factories and live a better life. I do wish this would happen. Unfortunately, this would entail the dreaded concept of "losing face", which Putin would rather die than have happen to him Lose face with who? The ones inside Russia that wouldn't buy a lie about pulling out are already not buying the lies now. Russia's standing has been utterly destroyed. Their image as an actual world power is completely broken. Who is there to safe face for by getting another couple of hundred thousand Russians killed? There are degrees to losing, if Russia could get a peace deal now then Putin will probably be president until he dies, if he loses most of the conquered territory I doubt Putin would be president for rest of this life.
I think he will remain president for the rest of his life regardless of the outcome, if you know what I mean. ;-)
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On May 21 2023 04:14 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 02:49 zeo wrote:https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1659905529370624000And with even pro-Ukraine sources confirming it we can finally say that the largest military battle in modern history has come to a close. We won't know the full extent for years to come but the numbers involved with the information we have now are staggering. This day last year Mariupol operations ended but the Kiev controlled forces and losses inside the city were no more than 8000, thats what was left inside the city when all the exits closed. This time around ten times that number was deployed at at the Soledar-Bahmut theater with massive reinforcements coming in almost continuously. Wagner managed to single handedly break the back of the Ukrainian army mobilized for the next offensive and with the amount of reinforcements and weaponry flooding into the area on the Ukrainian side the scale of what Wagner achieved at Bahmut - now Artyomovsk, is (and I'll use the word again) staggering. The massive sacrifices of the UAF should not be played down or the lives lost in the city brushed off. Every soldier mobilized and sent to that hell should be cared for by their government while they live (edit: of course, I have no sympathy for the neo-nazis and hardcore nationalists looking only to commit crimes, but the poor people mobilized and sent to grinder did not deserve to have that happen to them and they truly are heroes). Same for everyone that served in Wagner which might not have suffered as heavy losses in hard numbers but percentage-wise they are very much spent. As for the civilians, its been a long road since the anti-coup protests and subsequent referendum to join the DPR. For the first time since 2014 one of the founding populations centers of the Donbass Republics is back, but what life will look like there now is a question mark. There seems to be a lot of political will inside Russia to fund a Grozny like revival of what will certainly be designated a hero city after the war. Not sure if they will start any work until the Slavyansk-Kramatosk operations come to an end and the city is at a safe range. Not sure what you're on about. Ukraine has been holding like 2 rows of blocks on the outskirt of town for a while now, while their forces are counter attacking the south and north, aiming to encircle the town. If they pulled out of those two blocks, I'm not sure I would call that a "back broken" or "lost battle for the city". Ukraine has, in fact, made huge progress these last few weeks in the area. I suggest following this channel for detailed news about the battle(s). It's Pro-Ukrainian, but it talks fairly objectively about all the progress and regress that happens across the line
They sacrificed a lot of soldiers in those flanking attacks so they could secure the retreat for the units still on the outskirts of the city. Wagner still pressed on and took everything. Though it was more the Ukrainian army not wanting to lose the 1000 soldiers still on the outskirts and retreating than Wagner winning any firefight. If you used to control 100% and now your claim that you control 0.5% of the city is evidence that you haven't 'lost the battle for the city'.... ehhh... Retreating in this case was the smartest move.
I'm not sure that I could name a Russian equivalent of delusion and bias like Reporting from Ukraine. I stay away from the crazies and generally look for multiple reliable sources that don't jump to be the first to cover anything and actually care about not looking like idiots. The flanking retreat theory came from watching HistoryLegends and the guy really is as non-biased as you can be on the internet in this conflict. i.e. dumping on both sides when objectively they do get their shit pushed in. RFU is almost a meme looking at the video headlines.
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On May 21 2023 04:28 maybenexttime wrote:
I think he will remain president for the rest of his life regardless of the outcome, if you know what I mean. ;-) As many mentioned here already - there's absolutely no guarantee that his successor will be much different...
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On May 21 2023 03:53 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 03:24 justanothertownie wrote:On May 21 2023 02:49 zeo wrote:https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1659905529370624000And with even pro-Ukraine sources confirming it we can finally say that the largest military battle in modern history has come to a close. We won't know the full extent for years to come but the numbers involved with the information we have now are staggering. This day last year Mariupol operations ended but the Kiev controlled forces and losses inside the city were no more than 8000, thats what was left inside the city when all the exits closed. This time around ten times that number was deployed at at the Soledar-Bahmut theater with massive reinforcements coming in almost continuously. Wagner managed to single handedly break the back of the Ukrainian army mobilized for the next offensive and with the amount of reinforcements and weaponry flooding into the area on the Ukrainian side the scale of what Wagner achieved at Bahmut - now Artyomovsk, is (and I'll use the word again) staggering. The massive sacrifices of the UAF should not be played down or the lives lost in the city brushed off. Every soldier mobilized and sent to that hell should be cared for by their government while they live (edit: of course, I have no sympathy for the neo-nazis and hardcore nationalists looking only to commit crimes, but the poor people mobilized and sent to grinder did not deserve to have that happen to them and they truly are heroes). Same for everyone that served in Wagner which might not have suffered as heavy losses in hard numbers but percentage-wise they are very much spent. As for the civilians, its been a long road since the anti-coup protests and subsequent referendum to join the DPR. For the first time since 2014 one of the founding populations centers of the Donbass Republics is back, but what life will look like there now is a question mark. There seems to be a lot of political will inside Russia to fund a Grozny like revival of what will certainly be designated a hero city after the war. Not sure if they will start any work until the Slavyansk-Kramatosk operations come to an end and the city is at a safe range. I have a very hard time considering any of those people a hero. A victim of circumstances maybe. But a hero? Quite disgusting. Being mobilized on the street and sent to die hundreds of kilometers away for a city whose population doesn't want you there is something I would personally have problems with and find very difficult. Especially being sent to die for a regime like the Zelensky one. Though you might call them necessary losses or victims of circumstance its very distasteful and a stark reminder of the toxic mindset 'to the last Ukrainian' the war mongers have adopted since the conflict started. Are they no longer people to you because they lost with a 3 to 1 advantage in manpower to a bunch of convicts with no guns and only shovels, who also have AIDS according to the sources posted on this forum? They all died fighting hard and the ones that weren't neo-nazis deserve respect They are people too, not just tools and quite frankly to see them only as tools against Russia is disgusting. The dehumanization of all parties involved is horrible to see. EDIT: I'd like to see you sitting in a trench for a month getting shelled all day every day waiting to die, then come back here and type out what you think about those people
The most deranged stuff I've read on the internet maybe ever.
Saying stuff like "Being mobilized on the street and sent to die hundreds of kilometers away for a city whose population doesn't want you there is something I would personally have problems with and find very difficult" while talking about the Ukrainian mobilized is fucking incredible. Also, what population? There's no one there. I wonder what the millions of Ukrainian refugees all across Europe think of this invasion, if they wanted Russia to come wipe out their cities and liberate them from the "Kiev regime"? Or the people who die every single day due to Russian terror attacks which serve no military purpose?
Your war heroes are literally mercenaries who came to another country to kill for money and "glory". Mercenaries whose leader publicly stated that they will take no prisoners. Mercenaries who throw barely armed convicts at Ukrainians to be shredded like meat.
As for war mongers, literally no one wanted this war except Russia. The Ukrainians aren't fighting for Zelensky, or "The West" or whatever, they're fighting for Ukraine.
As for the civilians, its been a long road since the anti-coup protests and subsequent referendum to join the DPR.
And then get annexed by Russia after an absolute fascist circus of a referendum, about six months after gaining their "independence". A long road indeed.
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On May 20 2023 23:39 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2023 23:29 0x64 wrote:On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. Also I don't see how current Ukraine government would go into any kind of talks with Putin. Many UA officials including Zelensky told that they won't discuss anything with Russia while Putin is in power. And if Putin and his government would be stripped of power by some kind of pro-western force, combined with Russian defeat/surrender on the front as well as western/Ukrainian pressure for reparations and other conditions to lift sanctions, it would undoubtely cause great turmoil within Russia, both political and economical. Like the 90's, if not worse, with rapid inflation, separatism, military coups etc. So "position 1,5" may not be an option. I think that people who think that at this point that we could simply pull out like US in Vietnam, with no further reprecaussions, are strongly mistaken. Fate of WW1 losers is a better example I think. I think international law would have been more important than locals opinion, but that was masterfully done with the conquest of Crimea. Crimea was let go to avoid this war, but now that the war is happening, why do you think the opinion of the local matters, it does not seem to have mattered in any other territory in Ukraine. Show nested quote +On May 20 2023 21:24 Excludos wrote:On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. The local's opinions didn't matter when Russia came and took it.. You can't just invade a country, take part of their land, fill it with your own people, and then claim "No, see. The locals want it to be ours!". That's not how this works. Crimea is Ukraine's, and they have every right to want it back Because russia giving up that territory is a position that has political cost, which gets a lot higher the more people living in that territory. How they ended up there is completely irrelevant in that context because it might matter for international law, but not for internal politics. I read Ardias post not as a reasoning why crimea belongs to russia or why it would be unjust to expect it to give it up, but rather why it seems politically unfeasible/very much unrealistic. Which this was about, how could russia pulling out of ukraine be achieved rather than ukraine being forced to kick them out.
At some point instead of twisting his words into something else you have to understand that Ardias in fact did mean what he actually wrote. If he was talking about it in terms of being politically unfeasible, he would have said so. Unless you believe that Russia is justified in keeping Crimea, this guy is not on the same page as you.
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On May 21 2023 04:59 Jones313 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2023 23:39 Artesimo wrote:On May 20 2023 23:29 0x64 wrote:On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. Also I don't see how current Ukraine government would go into any kind of talks with Putin. Many UA officials including Zelensky told that they won't discuss anything with Russia while Putin is in power. And if Putin and his government would be stripped of power by some kind of pro-western force, combined with Russian defeat/surrender on the front as well as western/Ukrainian pressure for reparations and other conditions to lift sanctions, it would undoubtely cause great turmoil within Russia, both political and economical. Like the 90's, if not worse, with rapid inflation, separatism, military coups etc. So "position 1,5" may not be an option. I think that people who think that at this point that we could simply pull out like US in Vietnam, with no further reprecaussions, are strongly mistaken. Fate of WW1 losers is a better example I think. I think international law would have been more important than locals opinion, but that was masterfully done with the conquest of Crimea. Crimea was let go to avoid this war, but now that the war is happening, why do you think the opinion of the local matters, it does not seem to have mattered in any other territory in Ukraine. On May 20 2023 21:24 Excludos wrote:On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. The local's opinions didn't matter when Russia came and took it.. You can't just invade a country, take part of their land, fill it with your own people, and then claim "No, see. The locals want it to be ours!". That's not how this works. Crimea is Ukraine's, and they have every right to want it back Because russia giving up that territory is a position that has political cost, which gets a lot higher the more people living in that territory. How they ended up there is completely irrelevant in that context because it might matter for international law, but not for internal politics. I read Ardias post not as a reasoning why crimea belongs to russia or why it would be unjust to expect it to give it up, but rather why it seems politically unfeasible/very much unrealistic. Which this was about, how could russia pulling out of ukraine be achieved rather than ukraine being forced to kick them out. At some point instead of twisting his words into something else you have to understand that Ardias in fact did mean what he actually wrote. If he was talking about it in terms of being politically unfeasible, he would have said so. Unless you believe that Russia is justified in keeping Crimea, this guy is not on the same page as you.
I also read it as Ardias speaking in terms of political feasibility. Please don't put words into his mouth, it's not clear anywhere that he was expressing his own desires for Russia and Ukraine.
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On May 21 2023 04:46 ZeroByte13 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 04:28 maybenexttime wrote:
I think he will remain president for the rest of his life regardless of the outcome, if you know what I mean. ;-) As many mentioned here already - there's absolutely no guarantee that his successor will be much different...
I don't have any hopes for Russia to become a normal country. Most Russians wouldn't want that. They love their mass murdering dictators, "strong leaders", as they say. ;-)
For that to happen, Russia would probably have to be broken up into smaller states and the population would have to be subjected to lengthy deprogramming. I just pity the few decent people trapped in the country. Especially the young ones, who never had a chance to help their country change course.
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"the few decent people" are probably more than enitre Poland's population.
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I don't know why so many people have the exact same information as zeo, they always say russia is killing either 3 to 1 or 7 to 1 advantage and that the war is going to plan and russia is winning, ukraine is nazis, etc. I asume this is the russian narrative? I just asumed it was russian bots but maybe it's actualy real people who belivie this stuff
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On May 21 2023 02:16 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 01:47 Excludos wrote:On May 21 2023 01:30 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Why does there have to be logic for Russia to accept a loss when there was no logic to start the war in the first place. They made up a threat from Ukraine or NATO that was not there, made up stories of hatred for Ukrainian people for no reason, they made up a story that they capture it in 3 days.
Just fucking retreat stop the war and make up a new story to lie to the people about why you did win despite retreating. Turn the artillery factories into washing machine factories and live a better life. I do wish this would happen. Unfortunately, this would entail the dreaded concept of "losing face", which Putin would rather die than have happen to him Lose face with who? The ones inside Russia that wouldn't buy a lie about pulling out are already not buying the lies now. Russia's standing has been utterly destroyed. Their image as an actual world power is completely broken. Who is there to safe face for by getting another couple of hundred thousand Russians killed?
Losing face with Russian nationalistic hardliners.
That's the turbo-patriot crowd might be a small minority in the wider society but a good part of the armed forces.
There are rumors that it's the only faction that Putin is somewhat afraid of.
It makes sense, secret police people can control the civilian population but if the military decides to coup or mutiny then they are powerless.
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On May 21 2023 05:39 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 02:16 Gorsameth wrote:On May 21 2023 01:47 Excludos wrote:On May 21 2023 01:30 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Why does there have to be logic for Russia to accept a loss when there was no logic to start the war in the first place. They made up a threat from Ukraine or NATO that was not there, made up stories of hatred for Ukrainian people for no reason, they made up a story that they capture it in 3 days.
Just fucking retreat stop the war and make up a new story to lie to the people about why you did win despite retreating. Turn the artillery factories into washing machine factories and live a better life. I do wish this would happen. Unfortunately, this would entail the dreaded concept of "losing face", which Putin would rather die than have happen to him Lose face with who? The ones inside Russia that wouldn't buy a lie about pulling out are already not buying the lies now. Russia's standing has been utterly destroyed. Their image as an actual world power is completely broken. Who is there to safe face for by getting another couple of hundred thousand Russians killed? Losing face with Russian nationalistic hardliners. That's the turbo-patriot crowd might be a small minority in the wider society but a good part of the armed forces. There are rumors that it's the only faction that Putin is somewhat afraid of. It makes sense, secret police people can control the civilian population but if the military decides to coup or mutiny then they are powerless.
I also think that "losing face" to Putin has a very high likelyhood of also costing his life. A strongman dictator who stops looking strong has a good chance of stopping to be a dictator, and a dictator who stops being a dictator has a very low chance of staying alive. I personally don't know of any ex-dictators who lived long lives afterwards.
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On May 21 2023 05:34 ZeroByte13 wrote:
"the few decent people" are probably more than enitre Poland's population.
Doubtful.
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On May 21 2023 04:45 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 04:14 Excludos wrote:On May 21 2023 02:49 zeo wrote:https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1659905529370624000And with even pro-Ukraine sources confirming it we can finally say that the largest military battle in modern history has come to a close. We won't know the full extent for years to come but the numbers involved with the information we have now are staggering. This day last year Mariupol operations ended but the Kiev controlled forces and losses inside the city were no more than 8000, thats what was left inside the city when all the exits closed. This time around ten times that number was deployed at at the Soledar-Bahmut theater with massive reinforcements coming in almost continuously. Wagner managed to single handedly break the back of the Ukrainian army mobilized for the next offensive and with the amount of reinforcements and weaponry flooding into the area on the Ukrainian side the scale of what Wagner achieved at Bahmut - now Artyomovsk, is (and I'll use the word again) staggering. The massive sacrifices of the UAF should not be played down or the lives lost in the city brushed off. Every soldier mobilized and sent to that hell should be cared for by their government while they live (edit: of course, I have no sympathy for the neo-nazis and hardcore nationalists looking only to commit crimes, but the poor people mobilized and sent to grinder did not deserve to have that happen to them and they truly are heroes). Same for everyone that served in Wagner which might not have suffered as heavy losses in hard numbers but percentage-wise they are very much spent. As for the civilians, its been a long road since the anti-coup protests and subsequent referendum to join the DPR. For the first time since 2014 one of the founding populations centers of the Donbass Republics is back, but what life will look like there now is a question mark. There seems to be a lot of political will inside Russia to fund a Grozny like revival of what will certainly be designated a hero city after the war. Not sure if they will start any work until the Slavyansk-Kramatosk operations come to an end and the city is at a safe range. Not sure what you're on about. Ukraine has been holding like 2 rows of blocks on the outskirt of town for a while now, while their forces are counter attacking the south and north, aiming to encircle the town. If they pulled out of those two blocks, I'm not sure I would call that a "back broken" or "lost battle for the city". Ukraine has, in fact, made huge progress these last few weeks in the area. I suggest following this channel for detailed news about the battle(s). It's Pro-Ukrainian, but it talks fairly objectively about all the progress and regress that happens across the line They sacrificed a lot of soldiers in those flanking attacks so they could secure the retreat for the units still on the outskirts of the city. Wagner still pressed on and took everything. Though it was more the Ukrainian army not wanting to lose the 1000 soldiers still on the outskirts and retreating than Wagner winning any firefight. If you used to control 100% and now your claim that you control 0.5% of the city is evidence that you haven't 'lost the battle for the city'.... ehhh... Retreating in this case was the smartest move. I'm not sure that I could name a Russian equivalent of delusion and bias like Reporting from Ukraine. I stay away from the crazies and generally look for multiple reliable sources that don't jump to be the first to cover anything and actually care about not looking like idiots. The flanking retreat theory came from watching HistoryLegends and the guy really is as non-biased as you can be on the internet in this conflict. i.e. dumping on both sides when objectively they do get their shit pushed in. RFU is almost a meme looking at the video headlines.
I will agree his video headlines are garbage. Sadly a lot of videos are titled like that now a days. Seems to attract more viewers than actually writing what is in the video. The content is (as far as I can tell) factually correct while being pro-Ukraine in delivery.
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On May 21 2023 05:49 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 05:35 sertas wrote:
I don't know why so many people have the exact same information as zeo, they always say russia is killing either 3 to 1 or 7 to 1 advantage and that the war is going to plan and russia is winning, ukraine is nazis, etc. I asume this is the russian narrative? I just asumed it was russian bots but maybe it's actualy real people who belivie this stuff Real people do, around here a bunch of people have moved on from the Covid is globalists plans to steal people’s freedom to Putin us the last hero of manlyness. A shocking number also do not realize that Nazis were on the “right” but think they are left. Internet + ignorance = a lot of very questionable beliefs. If the “mainstream media” is saying Putin is bad then he must be good.
I wonder how much of that is new, and how much is just more visible now.
In Germany, there is a kinda well-known video from ~200x of a guy just talking about and explaining Reichsflugscheiben, ancient technology, the sun being cold, zero-point energy and so forth (Axel Stoll, key quote "Muss man wissen!"). The video ist mostly known because it is kinda funny if you think it is satire. But it isn't, the guy was serious. So this stuff already existed before social media, and way before corona.
I also remember the crazypeople who were regularly distributing flyers at the train station.
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On May 21 2023 05:18 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 04:59 Jones313 wrote:On May 20 2023 23:39 Artesimo wrote:On May 20 2023 23:29 0x64 wrote:On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. Also I don't see how current Ukraine government would go into any kind of talks with Putin. Many UA officials including Zelensky told that they won't discuss anything with Russia while Putin is in power. And if Putin and his government would be stripped of power by some kind of pro-western force, combined with Russian defeat/surrender on the front as well as western/Ukrainian pressure for reparations and other conditions to lift sanctions, it would undoubtely cause great turmoil within Russia, both political and economical. Like the 90's, if not worse, with rapid inflation, separatism, military coups etc. So "position 1,5" may not be an option. I think that people who think that at this point that we could simply pull out like US in Vietnam, with no further reprecaussions, are strongly mistaken. Fate of WW1 losers is a better example I think. I think international law would have been more important than locals opinion, but that was masterfully done with the conquest of Crimea. Crimea was let go to avoid this war, but now that the war is happening, why do you think the opinion of the local matters, it does not seem to have mattered in any other territory in Ukraine. On May 20 2023 21:24 Excludos wrote:On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. The local's opinions didn't matter when Russia came and took it.. You can't just invade a country, take part of their land, fill it with your own people, and then claim "No, see. The locals want it to be ours!". That's not how this works. Crimea is Ukraine's, and they have every right to want it back Because russia giving up that territory is a position that has political cost, which gets a lot higher the more people living in that territory. How they ended up there is completely irrelevant in that context because it might matter for international law, but not for internal politics. I read Ardias post not as a reasoning why crimea belongs to russia or why it would be unjust to expect it to give it up, but rather why it seems politically unfeasible/very much unrealistic. Which this was about, how could russia pulling out of ukraine be achieved rather than ukraine being forced to kick them out. At some point instead of twisting his words into something else you have to understand that Ardias in fact did mean what he actually wrote. If he was talking about it in terms of being politically unfeasible, he would have said so. Unless you believe that Russia is justified in keeping Crimea, this guy is not on the same page as you. I also read it as Ardias speaking in terms of political feasibility. Please don't put words into his mouth, it's not clear anywhere that he was expressing his own desires for Russia and Ukraine.
You know what, instead of us arguing about it, to clear up any confusion let's let the man speak for himself. I'm completely on board with that.
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On May 21 2023 07:00 Jones313 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 05:18 Magic Powers wrote:On May 21 2023 04:59 Jones313 wrote:On May 20 2023 23:39 Artesimo wrote:On May 20 2023 23:29 0x64 wrote:On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. Also I don't see how current Ukraine government would go into any kind of talks with Putin. Many UA officials including Zelensky told that they won't discuss anything with Russia while Putin is in power. And if Putin and his government would be stripped of power by some kind of pro-western force, combined with Russian defeat/surrender on the front as well as western/Ukrainian pressure for reparations and other conditions to lift sanctions, it would undoubtely cause great turmoil within Russia, both political and economical. Like the 90's, if not worse, with rapid inflation, separatism, military coups etc. So "position 1,5" may not be an option. I think that people who think that at this point that we could simply pull out like US in Vietnam, with no further reprecaussions, are strongly mistaken. Fate of WW1 losers is a better example I think. I think international law would have been more important than locals opinion, but that was masterfully done with the conquest of Crimea. Crimea was let go to avoid this war, but now that the war is happening, why do you think the opinion of the local matters, it does not seem to have mattered in any other territory in Ukraine. On May 20 2023 21:24 Excludos wrote:On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. The local's opinions didn't matter when Russia came and took it.. You can't just invade a country, take part of their land, fill it with your own people, and then claim "No, see. The locals want it to be ours!". That's not how this works. Crimea is Ukraine's, and they have every right to want it back Because russia giving up that territory is a position that has political cost, which gets a lot higher the more people living in that territory. How they ended up there is completely irrelevant in that context because it might matter for international law, but not for internal politics. I read Ardias post not as a reasoning why crimea belongs to russia or why it would be unjust to expect it to give it up, but rather why it seems politically unfeasible/very much unrealistic. Which this was about, how could russia pulling out of ukraine be achieved rather than ukraine being forced to kick them out. At some point instead of twisting his words into something else you have to understand that Ardias in fact did mean what he actually wrote. If he was talking about it in terms of being politically unfeasible, he would have said so. Unless you believe that Russia is justified in keeping Crimea, this guy is not on the same page as you. I also read it as Ardias speaking in terms of political feasibility. Please don't put words into his mouth, it's not clear anywhere that he was expressing his own desires for Russia and Ukraine. You know what, instead of us arguing about it, to clear up any confusion let's let the man speak for himself. I'm completely on board with that.
Is he on trial, may I ask, and for what reason?
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On May 21 2023 06:06 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 05:49 JimmiC wrote:On May 21 2023 05:35 sertas wrote:
I don't know why so many people have the exact same information as zeo, they always say russia is killing either 3 to 1 or 7 to 1 advantage and that the war is going to plan and russia is winning, ukraine is nazis, etc. I asume this is the russian narrative? I just asumed it was russian bots but maybe it's actualy real people who belivie this stuff Real people do, around here a bunch of people have moved on from the Covid is globalists plans to steal people’s freedom to Putin us the last hero of manlyness. A shocking number also do not realize that Nazis were on the “right” but think they are left. Internet + ignorance = a lot of very questionable beliefs. If the “mainstream media” is saying Putin is bad then he must be good. I wonder how much of that is new, and how much is just more visible now. In Germany, there is a kinda well-known video from ~200x of a guy just talking about and explaining Reichsflugscheiben, ancient technology, the sun being cold, zero-point energy and so forth (Axel Stoll, key quote "Muss man wissen!"). The video ist mostly known because it is kinda funny if you think it is satire. But it isn't, the guy was serious. So this stuff already existed before social media, and way before corona. I also remember the crazypeople who were regularly distributing flyers at the train station.
Mate, you don't need to go anywhere near as niche as crazy people in train stations, magical thinking was mainstream before social media. The supposed science channels like Discovery had shows about ghosts and alien abductions, the morning news had horoscope segments, cops "working" with psychics to solve crimes, faith healers "curing" paraplegics on stadium performances and so on.
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I don't know if it's true but I've heard that cops hiring "psychics" is often a way to cover unlawfully obtained information or such.
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EPT
