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Russian Federation614 Posts
On May 20 2023 05:03 0x64 wrote:
Ardias, do you have any vision what can other countries leaders do to stop this madness apart from providing weapons to Ukraine (which won't stop anything for a long time).
What can settle all this? Are there any talk in Russia that an exit and rebuild strategy would be necessary?
Nothing. Both sides have fixed demands for peace which they won't budge from (for Ukraine its restoring their pre-2014 borders, for Russia - retaining territories they claimed their own). US, NATO and others will continue to support Ukraine, but unless they would send their own troops, it will change little in the situation. Many Asian countries (China, India, Turkey, Iran, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan etc.) benefit a lot from increased trade with Russia as a result of its shift to the east, so they could vocally support some UN resolutions condemning Russia, but would still engage in economic projects and supply necessary products to it.
US though could try to change the goverment in some countries (Turkey), or press sanctions on others (Georgia) to limit Russian options, but it's still long term play.
In Russia itself I see three major ways of thinking -
1) completely pro-western, anti-Putin (though most vocal representatives of it are abroad), which generally agree on unconditional Russian surrender on any western terms and even dissolution of Russia as a state, if it keeps European-Russian territories westernized
2) anti-western, pro-Putin, which supports decision of the current government and generally content with war ending with current status quo, don't appreciate Russia being influenced by the West
3) anti-western, anti-Putin, which considers Putin and current leadership being either weak or traitorous, calls for total economic and military mobilization with a purpose of wiping Ukraine off the map and for prolonged confrontation with NATO
I'm not including indifferent people in the list (and there are still lots of them) since they just trying to live their lives and aren't influencing the situation.
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I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1.
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Russian Federation614 Posts
On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1.
What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that.
Also I don't see how current Ukraine government would go into any kind of talks with Putin. Many UA officials including Zelensky told that they won't discuss anything with Russia while Putin is in power.
And if Putin and his government would be stripped of power by some kind of pro-western force, combined with Russian defeat/surrender on the front as well as western/Ukrainian pressure for reparations and other conditions to lift sanctions, it would undoubtely cause great turmoil within Russia, both political and economical. Like the 90's, if not worse, with rapid inflation, separatism, military coups etc.
So "position 1,5" may not be an option. I think that people who think that at this point that we could simply pull out like US in Vietnam, with no further reprecaussions, are strongly mistaken.
Fate of WW1 losers is a better example I think.
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On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that.
The local's opinions didn't matter when Russia came and took it.. You can't just invade a country, take part of their land, fill it with your own people, and then claim "No, see. The locals want it to be ours!". That's not how this works. Crimea is Ukraine's, and they have every right to want it back
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On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. Also I don't see how current Ukraine government would go into any kind of talks with Putin. Many UA officials including Zelensky told that they won't discuss anything with Russia while Putin is in power. And if Putin and his government would be stripped of power by some kind of pro-western force, combined with Russian defeat/surrender on the front as well as western/Ukrainian pressure for reparations and other conditions to lift sanctions, it would undoubtely cause great turmoil within Russia, both political and economical. Like the 90's, if not worse, with rapid inflation, separatism, military coups etc. So "position 1,5" may not be an option. I think that people who think that at this point that we could simply pull out like US in Vietnam, with no further reprecaussions, are strongly mistaken. Fate of WW1 losers is a better example I think.
I think international law would have been more important than locals opinion, but that was masterfully done with the conquest of Crimea.
Crimea was let go to avoid this war, but now that the war is happening, why do you think the opinion of the local matters, it does not seem to have mattered in any other territory in Ukraine.
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On May 20 2023 23:29 0x64 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. Also I don't see how current Ukraine government would go into any kind of talks with Putin. Many UA officials including Zelensky told that they won't discuss anything with Russia while Putin is in power. And if Putin and his government would be stripped of power by some kind of pro-western force, combined with Russian defeat/surrender on the front as well as western/Ukrainian pressure for reparations and other conditions to lift sanctions, it would undoubtely cause great turmoil within Russia, both political and economical. Like the 90's, if not worse, with rapid inflation, separatism, military coups etc. So "position 1,5" may not be an option. I think that people who think that at this point that we could simply pull out like US in Vietnam, with no further reprecaussions, are strongly mistaken. Fate of WW1 losers is a better example I think. I think international law would have been more important than locals opinion, but that was masterfully done with the conquest of Crimea. Crimea was let go to avoid this war, but now that the war is happening, why do you think the opinion of the local matters, it does not seem to have mattered in any other territory in Ukraine.
On May 20 2023 21:24 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. The local's opinions didn't matter when Russia came and took it.. You can't just invade a country, take part of their land, fill it with your own people, and then claim "No, see. The locals want it to be ours!". That's not how this works. Crimea is Ukraine's, and they have every right to want it back
Because russia giving up that territory is a position that has political cost, which gets a lot higher the more people living in that territory. How they ended up there is completely irrelevant in that context because it might matter for international law, but not for internal politics. I read Ardias post not as a reasoning why crimea belongs to russia or why it would be unjust to expect it to give it up, but rather why it seems politically unfeasible/very much unrealistic. Which this was about, how could russia pulling out of ukraine be achieved rather than ukraine being forced to kick them out.
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Yeah, I also think Ardias meant why it's not feasible from Russian government point of view.
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On May 20 2023 23:39 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2023 23:29 0x64 wrote:On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. Also I don't see how current Ukraine government would go into any kind of talks with Putin. Many UA officials including Zelensky told that they won't discuss anything with Russia while Putin is in power. And if Putin and his government would be stripped of power by some kind of pro-western force, combined with Russian defeat/surrender on the front as well as western/Ukrainian pressure for reparations and other conditions to lift sanctions, it would undoubtely cause great turmoil within Russia, both political and economical. Like the 90's, if not worse, with rapid inflation, separatism, military coups etc. So "position 1,5" may not be an option. I think that people who think that at this point that we could simply pull out like US in Vietnam, with no further reprecaussions, are strongly mistaken. Fate of WW1 losers is a better example I think. I think international law would have been more important than locals opinion, but that was masterfully done with the conquest of Crimea. Crimea was let go to avoid this war, but now that the war is happening, why do you think the opinion of the local matters, it does not seem to have mattered in any other territory in Ukraine. Show nested quote +On May 20 2023 21:24 Excludos wrote:On May 20 2023 20:25 Ardias wrote:On May 20 2023 19:38 ZeroByte13 wrote:
I know quite a few pro-western, anti-current-government Russians.
None of them want dissolution of Russia as a state, as far as I know.
So there's position #1.5 - stop the war, give back the territories, but this doesn't mean "full surrender" as in "do what you want with our country including dissolution".
And I'd think this is more popular than position #1. What territories exactly? Including Crimea? Because locals may have different opinion on that. The local's opinions didn't matter when Russia came and took it.. You can't just invade a country, take part of their land, fill it with your own people, and then claim "No, see. The locals want it to be ours!". That's not how this works. Crimea is Ukraine's, and they have every right to want it back Because russia giving up that territory is a position that has political cost, which gets a lot higher the more people living in that territory. How they ended up there is completely irrelevant in that context because it might matter for international law, but not for internal politics. I read Ardias post not as a reasoning why crimea belongs to russia or why it would be unjust to expect it to give it up, but rather why it seems politically unfeasible/very much unrealistic. Which this was about, how could russia pulling out of ukraine be achieved rather than ukraine being forced to kick them out.
Thing is, there's no middle ground to be met. Either Russia wins the war, or they get kicked out by Ukraine. Which is to say either Russia gets all of Ukraine, or Ukraine gets every part of their country back, including Crimea. If they manage to beat Russia back from the east, there's zero reasons for them to arbitrarily stop at Crimea. In fact, I'd argue at that point it would be the easiest capture in existence, as after blowing up the bridge (Which, let's be honest, is happening any day now anyways), Russia will be in no position to defend it either. There is no further political cost for Ukraine. Crimea isn't special just because it got taken first
Ukraine wants all of their territory back. Russia isn't going to be able to "hold on to some of it". They either win the war or they get nothing.
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Why does there have to be logic for Russia to accept a loss when there was no logic to start the war in the first place. They made up a threat from Ukraine or NATO that was not there, made up stories of hatred for Ukrainian people for no reason, they made up a story that they capture it in 3 days.
Just fucking retreat stop the war and make up a new story to lie to the people about why you did win despite retreating. Turn the artillery factories into washing machine factories and live a better life.
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On May 21 2023 01:30 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Why does there have to be logic for Russia to accept a loss when there was no logic to start the war in the first place. They made up a threat from Ukraine or NATO that was not there, made up stories of hatred for Ukrainian people for no reason, they made up a story that they capture it in 3 days.
Just fucking retreat stop the war and make up a new story to lie to the people about why you did win despite retreating. Turn the artillery factories into washing machine factories and live a better life.
I do wish this would happen. Unfortunately, this would entail the dreaded concept of "losing face", which Putin would rather die than have happen to him
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On May 21 2023 01:47 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 01:30 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Why does there have to be logic for Russia to accept a loss when there was no logic to start the war in the first place. They made up a threat from Ukraine or NATO that was not there, made up stories of hatred for Ukrainian people for no reason, they made up a story that they capture it in 3 days.
Just fucking retreat stop the war and make up a new story to lie to the people about why you did win despite retreating. Turn the artillery factories into washing machine factories and live a better life. I do wish this would happen. Unfortunately, this would entail the dreaded concept of "losing face", which Putin would rather die than have happen to him Lose face with who? The ones inside Russia that wouldn't buy a lie about pulling out are already not buying the lies now. Russia's standing has been utterly destroyed. Their image as an actual world power is completely broken.
Who is there to safe face for by getting another couple of hundred thousand Russians killed?
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On May 21 2023 02:16 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 01:47 Excludos wrote:On May 21 2023 01:30 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Why does there have to be logic for Russia to accept a loss when there was no logic to start the war in the first place. They made up a threat from Ukraine or NATO that was not there, made up stories of hatred for Ukrainian people for no reason, they made up a story that they capture it in 3 days.
Just fucking retreat stop the war and make up a new story to lie to the people about why you did win despite retreating. Turn the artillery factories into washing machine factories and live a better life. I do wish this would happen. Unfortunately, this would entail the dreaded concept of "losing face", which Putin would rather die than have happen to him Lose face with who? The ones inside Russia that wouldn't buy a lie about pulling out are already not buying the lies now. Russia's standing has been utterly destroyed. Their image as an actual world power is completely broken. Who is there to safe face for by getting another couple of hundred thousand Russians killed?
There are degrees to losing, if Russia could get a peace deal now then Putin will probably be president until he dies, if he loses most of the conquered territory I doubt Putin would be president for rest of this life.
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And with even pro-Ukraine sources confirming it we can finally say that the largest military battle in modern history has come to a close. We won't know the full extent for years to come but the numbers involved with the information we have now are staggering. This day last year Mariupol operations ended but the Kiev controlled forces and losses inside the city were no more than 8000, thats what was left inside the city when all the exits closed. This time around ten times that number was deployed at at the Soledar-Bahmut theater with massive reinforcements coming in almost continuously.
Wagner managed to single handedly break the back of the Ukrainian army mobilized for the next offensive and with the amount of reinforcements and weaponry flooding into the area on the Ukrainian side the scale of what Wagner achieved at Bahmut - now Artyomovsk, is (and I'll use the word again) staggering. The massive sacrifices of the UAF should not be played down or the lives lost in the city brushed off. Every soldier mobilized and sent to that hell should be cared for by their government while they live (edit: of course, I have no sympathy for the neo-nazis and hardcore nationalists looking only to commit crimes, but the poor people mobilized and sent to grinder did not deserve to have that happen to them and they truly are heroes). Same for everyone that served in Wagner which might not have suffered as heavy losses in hard numbers but percentage-wise they are very much spent.
As for the civilians, its been a long road since the anti-coup protests and subsequent referendum to join the DPR. For the first time since 2014 one of the founding populations centers of the Donbass Republics is back, but what life will look like there now is a question mark. There seems to be a lot of political will inside Russia to fund a Grozny like revival of what will certainly be designated a hero city after the war. Not sure if they will start any work until the Slavyansk-Kramatosk operations come to an end and the city is at a safe range.
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I don't think the war ends before Putin dies. And even after he dies, the war will probably continue for a while. Though I expect the fighting will be less active in the next years, as this will become a routine mostly. Just like many other wars that have been dragged for years.
A big mistake IMHO is the discussions about who wins the war. It's like people don't realize there cannot be any winners in a war. And I understand that it's just semantics. and by win we mean the retreat of invaders. But by focusing on this, people miss the opportunity to talk about some possible lessons learned.
Unfortunately very little lessons learned has happened in Russia after the WW2. All they did was to self-nourish their superiority on the back of war generations blood. They don't celebrate the end of the war, the celebrate the "victory day". Like they won something. They don't look for historical truth, they look for the history that will tell them how <insert good quality here> their parents and grand-parents were and how bad the others were. Just like a fairy tale (Unfortunately this happens in most countries in the world). The result is that it was pretty easy for their propaganda to feed into their population everything needed to start a war.
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On May 21 2023 02:49 zeo wrote:https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1659905529370624000And with even pro-Ukraine sources confirming it we can finally say that the largest military battle in modern history has come to a close. We won't know the full extent for years to come but the numbers involved with the information we have now are staggering. This day last year Mariupol operations ended but the Kiev controlled forces and losses inside the city were no more than 8000, thats what was left inside the city when all the exits closed. This time around ten times that number was deployed at at the Soledar-Bahmut theater with massive reinforcements coming in almost continuously. Wagner managed to single handedly break the back of the Ukrainian army mobilized for the next offensive and with the amount of reinforcements and weaponry flooding into the area on the Ukrainian side the scale of what Wagner achieved at Bahmut - now Artyomovsk, is (and I'll use the word again) staggering. The massive sacrifices of the UAF should not be played down or the lives lost in the city brushed off. Every soldier mobilized and sent to that hell should be cared for by their government while they live (edit: of course, I have no sympathy for the neo-nazis and hardcore nationalists looking only to commit crimes, but the poor people mobilized and sent to grinder did not deserve to have that happen to them and they truly are heroes). Same for everyone that served in Wagner which might not have suffered as heavy losses in hard numbers but percentage-wise they are very much spent. As for the civilians, its been a long road since the anti-coup protests and subsequent referendum to join the DPR. For the first time since 2014 one of the founding populations centers of the Donbass Republics is back, but what life will look like there now is a question mark. There seems to be a lot of political will inside Russia to fund a Grozny like revival of what will certainly be designated a hero city after the war. Not sure if they will start any work until the Slavyansk-Kramatosk operations come to an end and the city is at a safe range.
I have a very hard time considering any of those people a hero. A victim of circumstances maybe. But a hero?
Quite disgusting.
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On May 21 2023 02:49 zeo wrote:https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1659905529370624000And with even pro-Ukraine sources confirming it we can finally say that the largest military battle in modern history has come to a close. We won't know the full extent for years to come but the numbers involved with the information we have now are staggering. This day last year Mariupol operations ended but the Kiev controlled forces and losses inside the city were no more than 8000, thats what was left inside the city when all the exits closed. This time around ten times that number was deployed at at the Soledar-Bahmut theater with massive reinforcements coming in almost continuously. Wagner managed to single handedly break the back of the Ukrainian army mobilized for the next offensive and with the amount of reinforcements and weaponry flooding into the area on the Ukrainian side the scale of what Wagner achieved at Bahmut - now Artyomovsk, is (and I'll use the word again) staggering. The massive sacrifices of the UAF should not be played down or the lives lost in the city brushed off. Every soldier mobilized and sent to that hell should be cared for by their government while they live (edit: of course, I have no sympathy for the neo-nazis and hardcore nationalists looking only to commit crimes, but the poor people mobilized and sent to grinder did not deserve to have that happen to them and they truly are heroes). Same for everyone that served in Wagner which might not have suffered as heavy losses in hard numbers but percentage-wise they are very much spent. As for the civilians, its been a long road since the anti-coup protests and subsequent referendum to join the DPR. For the first time since 2014 one of the founding populations centers of the Donbass Republics is back, but what life will look like there now is a question mark. There seems to be a lot of political will inside Russia to fund a Grozny like revival of what will certainly be designated a hero city after the war. Not sure if they will start any work until the Slavyansk-Kramatosk operations come to an end and the city is at a safe range.
I see no Ukrainian sources saying it has fallen? All the news reports I see say Ukrainian troops claim to still be fighting for part of the town.
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On May 21 2023 03:24 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2023 02:49 zeo wrote:https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1659905529370624000And with even pro-Ukraine sources confirming it we can finally say that the largest military battle in modern history has come to a close. We won't know the full extent for years to come but the numbers involved with the information we have now are staggering. This day last year Mariupol operations ended but the Kiev controlled forces and losses inside the city were no more than 8000, thats what was left inside the city when all the exits closed. This time around ten times that number was deployed at at the Soledar-Bahmut theater with massive reinforcements coming in almost continuously. Wagner managed to single handedly break the back of the Ukrainian army mobilized for the next offensive and with the amount of reinforcements and weaponry flooding into the area on the Ukrainian side the scale of what Wagner achieved at Bahmut - now Artyomovsk, is (and I'll use the word again) staggering. The massive sacrifices of the UAF should not be played down or the lives lost in the city brushed off. Every soldier mobilized and sent to that hell should be cared for by their government while they live (edit: of course, I have no sympathy for the neo-nazis and hardcore nationalists looking only to commit crimes, but the poor people mobilized and sent to grinder did not deserve to have that happen to them and they truly are heroes). Same for everyone that served in Wagner which might not have suffered as heavy losses in hard numbers but percentage-wise they are very much spent. As for the civilians, its been a long road since the anti-coup protests and subsequent referendum to join the DPR. For the first time since 2014 one of the founding populations centers of the Donbass Republics is back, but what life will look like there now is a question mark. There seems to be a lot of political will inside Russia to fund a Grozny like revival of what will certainly be designated a hero city after the war. Not sure if they will start any work until the Slavyansk-Kramatosk operations come to an end and the city is at a safe range. I have a very hard time considering any of those people a hero. A victim of circumstances maybe. But a hero? Quite disgusting.
Being mobilized on the street and sent to die hundreds of kilometers away for a city whose population doesn't want you there is something I would personally have problems with and find very difficult. Especially being sent to die for a regime like the Zelensky one. Though you might call them necessary losses or victims of circumstance its very distasteful and a stark reminder of the toxic mindset 'to the last Ukrainian' the war mongers have adopted since the conflict started. Are they no longer people to you because they lost with a 3 to 1 advantage in manpower to a bunch of convicts with no guns and only shovels, who also have AIDS according to the sources posted on this forum? They all died fighting hard and the ones that weren't neo-nazis deserve respect
They are people too, not just tools and quite frankly to see them only as tools against Russia is disgusting. The dehumanization of all parties involved is horrible to see.
EDIT: I'd like to see you sitting in a trench for a month getting shelled all day every day waiting to die, then come back here and type out what you think about those people
On May 21 2023 03:43 JimmiC wrote:
It’s like the 4th time he claimed complete victory. I’m not sure what the celebration would be, or what fantasy world this town is going to be a city again shortly. Russia was supposed to easily take this months and months ago, instead massive losses and the shell of a town rather were dropping incineration bombs on like a week ago.
Do you have any idea what a modern army with 80.000 troops concentrated on a small sector of a front can do defensively with an endless stream of weapons, ammunition and reinforcements? In what universe was this going to be easy? Where did these soundbites come from? Everyone knew it would become a killing field way before even Soledar was taken, the sheer numbers of concentrated troops and weaponry on both sides was massive.
Give us all one source were there is a direct quote from the Russian side (name and surname) that Bahmut/Artemovsk will be taken easily. Just one source, any source. All the sources I've been reading were saying both sides will bleed heavily whatever the outcome.
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EPT
