NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
On December 09 2022 19:54 0x64 wrote: Maybe I am stupid, but one way of solving the conflict would be to announce that Ukraine has now nuclear missiles? Doesn't that stops any threat of nuclear retaliation from Russia?
It would be such a huge overstepping over all red lines and beyond, that I think it would work. Because suddenly, russian population would be scared of actions in Ukraine, and that fear would be enough.
Lack of fear of consequences is what is keeping Putin in power.
now, this is only naïve speculation, but who Russia would retaliate to, if it couldn't know who gave the nukes, where they are, and are they real?
Announcing something and actually having it are different things.
If what you're talking about is giving Ukraine nuclear weapons, it's a massive technological transfer that just can't happen short term, and even if it could, MAD would still not be a thing because you'd have to give Ukraine a lot of nuclear weapons to match Russia, and even if you could do that then what? At best you freeze the conflict with the lines as they stand, but now you have a nuclear armed Ukraine.
The was once a time where nuclear deterrance was discussed as a tool that might be available for more than just security council nations, but such times have passed because of both the realization of massive inherent risks in having such weapons and interests of nuclear armed countries in maintaining their exclusivity.
On December 09 2022 19:54 0x64 wrote: Maybe I am stupid, but one way of solving the conflict would be to announce that Ukraine has now nuclear missiles? Doesn't that stops any threat of nuclear retaliation from Russia?
It would be such a huge overstepping over all red lines and beyond, that I think it would work. Because suddenly, russian population would be scared of actions in Ukraine, and that fear would be enough.
Lack of fear of consequences is what is keeping Putin in power.
now, this is only naïve speculation, but who Russia would retaliate to, if it couldn't know who gave the nukes, where they are, and are they real?
Problem with Russia is not only that they have nukes, but also that it is one of the 2 countries in the world who can use them without much fear of retaliation. If bolded happened Putin, deranged as he is, may just nuke Europe. When it comes to Russian population it would give him the platform to claim that this is the very reason he started this war. Because in propaganda truth doesnt matter.
Apparently a few inmates recruited for Wagner have deserted and now a manhunt is underway.
Russia’s most deranged gambit in its war against Ukraine is rapidly turning into a crisis as military leaders lose control over the prison inmates freed in exchange for a stint on the battlefield.
About 20 armed inmates fled from the frontline in occupied Donetsk in recent days and the Russian military was forced to launch a manhunt for members of its own team, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Thursday. Three of the “fugitives” were killed in the ensuing search, Ukrainian authorities said, wryly noting: “Beat your own, so that others are afraid, as they say.”
The hunt was reportedly still on for the other fleeing inmates. The news comes just two days after a suspected Russian deserter fleeing the battlefield in Ukraine’s occupied Donbas crossed the border into Russia before opening fire and injuring two police officers. Independent media outlets identified the gunman as a prison inmate recruited to fight in the war.
While many experts saw the prison-recruitment scheme for what it was from the get-go—a convenient way to bolster Russia’s fledgling troops using men deemed easily disposable—it seems many of the inmates are themselves finally coming around to that realization.
The public sledgehammer-execution of Wagner defector Yevgeny Nuzhin last month certainly didn’t help matters, no matter how much Yevgeny Prigozhin, the mastermind behind the prison recruitment scheme, told inmates they’d go down in history as “heroes.”
Now, Russian inmates say there have been other executions carried out against those perceived to have “betrayed” the mercenary group—and wannabe recruits are shown videos of it.
One inmate at a penal colony in the Far East told the BBC’s Russian service that Wagner recruiters showed execution videos to inmates in the facility’s recreation room.
In one video played for a group of inmates who expressed an interest in joining Wagner, he said, a man told the camera, “‘I, such and such, am a traitor and a bitch, I abandoned my own on the frontline,’ and then they shoot him in the back of the head.”
Another inmate in a different colony told the BBC he’d also been shown another video in which a person was hung from an iron beam.
Sources close to Wagner were quoted telling the BBC there have been at least three such executions, with one calling them “training videos.”
Olga Romanova, the head of the human rights group Russia Behind Bars, has said inmates have reported a few dozen extrajudicial killings of prisoners tossed into the war.
Russian inmates captured by Ukraine have now also reportedly begun begging not to be handed back over to Russia as part of any prisoner swaps, fearing they’d be executed just like Nuzhin was.
An inmate who signed up to fight for Wagner in Ukraine and was subsequently captured by the Ukrainian side was seen in a video pleading not to be sent back over the weekend.
Identified by the independent Russian outlet Verstka as Alexander Bolchev, he told a Ukrainian journalist, “I don’t want a swap because they’ll immediately kill me. I know they’ll kill me.”
One of his female relatives told the BBC the same thing, saying: “It’s good that he’s alive, but they’ll hand him over and he’ll be killed, he’ll definitely be killed.”
Experts also say the prison recruiting could prove to be a “catastrophe” for ordinary Russians.
“The social situation in the country may seriously suffer after these prisoners return from the war zone and have their sentences reduced or get released for ‘atonement’ of their crimes with blood,” Alexander Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military expert, told iStories. “And they will return not just with the baggage of crimes committed in Russia and Ukraine, but also with post-traumatic stress disorder, which no psychologists will treat.”
I'd honestly be shocked if any real criminals recruited by Wagner get out alive. If the meatgrinder of the war doesn't kill them then either Wagner will refuse to let them go or quietly kill them.
I'm looking at the weather forecast in Bakhmut for the next two weeks. If it holds true, temperatures will dip below freezing on 18 December. Am I right in thinking that the ground could freeze around then? My thought is that once the ground freezes, new trenches would be extremely difficult to dig and defensive lines wouldn't move much. Ukraine holding another ~10 days will be a difficult task, though
On December 10 2022 06:31 plasmidghost wrote: I'm looking at the weather forecast in Bakhmut for the next two weeks. If it holds true, temperatures will dip below freezing on 18 December. Am I right in thinking that the ground could freeze around then? My thought is that once the ground freezes, new trenches would be extremely difficult to dig and defensive lines wouldn't move much. Ukraine holding another ~10 days will be a difficult task, though
Generally speaking frozen ground is good for the offensive, compared to muddy ground at least. Can actually move equipment around and it isn't as hard to stay warm when moving around.
On December 10 2022 06:31 plasmidghost wrote: I'm looking at the weather forecast in Bakhmut for the next two weeks. If it holds true, temperatures will dip below freezing on 18 December. Am I right in thinking that the ground could freeze around then? My thought is that once the ground freezes, new trenches would be extremely difficult to dig and defensive lines wouldn't move much. Ukraine holding another ~10 days will be a difficult task, though
Also you'll need a long cold spell for ground to freeze. A few days below zero doesn't do it.
Its a lot a lot easier to dig in around freezing temperatures than anything to a few degrees above it. Dirt starts clumping easier and dries out fast. I always get my wood work out back done after the first frost for that reason.
Truly frozen ground is a significant number below zero. Till then a pick and mattock can really flourish. That's of course assuming that you have an en trenching tool to begin with. Cold mud and dirt is a lot worse than warm dirt or snow. The kind of stuff that sticks to you and doesn't brush off easy is a real killer.
Pretty sure that until it is under zero for a few days running, the problem won't be the cold for digging trenches, but the rain. When it rains, all the mud sticks to everything. When it's dry you can generally dig okay. Snow is much much easier to work in than rain (sleet is worse still).
This is super informative, especially since it never froze back in Houston lmao
I wonder if Ukraine is realizing how dire Bakhmut is and deciding to strike elsewhere. Given the scattered attacks on Russian forces, it would make sense to me
On December 10 2022 22:10 plasmidghost wrote: This is super informative, especially since it never froze back in Houston lmao
I wonder if Ukraine is realizing how dire Bakhmut is and deciding to strike elsewhere. Given the scattered attacks on Russian forces, it would make sense to me
Bakhmut has been in a dire situation for months and has not fallen. Russians took a small strip of land and now everyone in this thread seem to think it has days left? I haven't seen any indication of further progress and the next steps are hard.
And Ukraine is "prepping" the south with deep rocket strikes while trying to take Svatove and Kreminna. Towns with real strategic value... I think now that the frost has settled in that is the goal during the winter. You don't have much advantage as an attacker but you can decide where to strike and if Ukraine takes those two cities now they open up a lot of potential targets that Russia has to defend (Trotiske, Starobilisk, Sievrodonetsk along with Donetsk counter offensives and of course the long awaited southern offensive towards Melitopol).
Ukraine has been very good with giving themselves multiple options during the war and then hitting the one that is defended the weakest.
On December 10 2022 22:10 plasmidghost wrote: This is super informative, especially since it never froze back in Houston lmao
I wonder if Ukraine is realizing how dire Bakhmut is and deciding to strike elsewhere. Given the scattered attacks on Russian forces, it would make sense to me
Bakhmut has been in a dire situation for months and has not fallen. Russians took a small strip of land and now everyone in this thread seem to think it has days left? I haven't seen any indication of further progress and the next steps are hard.
And Ukraine is "prepping" the south with deep rocket strikes while trying to take Svatove and Kreminna. Towns with real strategic value... I think now that the frost has settled in that is the goal during the winter. You don't have much advantage as an attacker but you can decide where to strike and if Ukraine takes those two cities now they open up a lot of potential targets that Russia has to defend (Trotiske, Starobilisk, Sievrodonetsk along with Donetsk counter offensives and of course the long awaited southern offensive towards Melitopol).
Ukraine has been very good with giving themselves multiple options during the war and then hitting the one that is defended the weakest.
I hope so. I just see a lot of the OSINT and reporting accounts talking about it
Russia has almost reached the main defensive line at Bakhmut. That is how I understand things are going. They are also trying to cut off logistics and surrounding strong points with decent progress but n success yet.
The list written in red on the board to the right looks a lot like the list of units, who take part in combat around Bakhmut (it's literally written "Бахмут" - "Bakhmut" on the top left on the list). Hard to be sure if it's some sort of intentional desinformation, or it really slipped into the video due to bad edit or mistake of the operator. But if it's the latter, the list tells a lot about AFU force disposition there:
5. "НГУ БРОП" - means National Guard Rapid Reaction Brigade. Unclear which one, but below there is a number A3018. which belongs to 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade (yeah, the one who fought Russian paratroopers in Hostomel). So it may be the one. 6. Same row - "+3030". If it means "military unit 3030" - then it is 25th Public Security Protection Brigade 7. A row below there is something called BTRG "Yastreb"("Hawk"). That's kinda odd, since in Ukrainian it's written "Yastrub", not "Yastreb" (latter is Russian word). Not exactly shure what is meant here, could be some recently formed or temporary unit, most likely a battalion tactical (reconnaissance?) group. 8. Can't get a reliable prooflink here, but "Берлинго" ("Berlingo") seems to be 210th Separate Rifle Battalion, a recently formed unit. 9. 3027 - if it is, again a "military unit 3027" - then this is a 1st (Presidential) Rapid Reaction Brigade of Ukrainian National Guard. Number "A3027" reappears in the bottom of the list as well. 10. "A0536 - 53 бр" - 53rd Mechanized Brigade In a row below: "А3488 - Айдар("Aidar")". - military unit A3488 - it's a 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar", under command of 53rd Mech Brigade. 11. To the right of A0536 there is number "A1736" - this is 57th Motorized Brigade. 12. "A4080 - 43 об". - most likely means "43rd Separate Battalion", and only confirmantion I've met is this video (it's in Ukrainian, so take my word for it, but on 00:04-00:09 he says "вiйськовослужбовцi сорок третьего окремого стрілецького батальйону, військова частина А сорок восьмидесят, мiсто Житомир" - "military personnel of the forty-third separate rifle battalion, military unit A forty-eighty, the city of Zhytomyr". 13. "A4247" - only found this link regarding charity football match, but the guy who made the decyphering of the list first said that it was 243rd Territorial Defence Battalion. 14. "А4374" - this number seem to be unclear so I'm not sure. A4374 was 104th Radio Communication Center of Ukraine Navy in Crimea up to 2014, but it's unlikely to be the case here. 15. "A0693" - 54th Mechanized Brigade 16. А4612 - 69th Separate Rifle Battalion. 17. А7188 or A7181 (last figure is unclear). Both are TDF Battalions, А7188 - it's 95th battalion from 107th TDF Brigade, A7181 – a Shepetiivka TDF battalion from the 106th TDF Brigade 18. "109 ТРО(TRO, Territorialnaya oborona, Territorial Defence)" - seem to be 109th Territorial Defence Brigade 19. The most odd one. Looks like «94 бр» (94 br, “br” generally means “Brigade”). But there is no brigade in AFU with such number.
All in all - 3 Mechanized, 2 Motorized, 3 National Guard, 1 Territorial Defence Brigade, plus unknown brigade in the last row (closest guess is 95th Air Assault), plus a bunch of separate battalions. Manpower wise it should be similar to a smaller Army Corps by Cold War NATO standards. Full army brigade (not sure about National Guard) in peacetime is around 3000 men if full, plus during the war each brigade seem to get at least 1 additional rifle battalion from the mobilized men. Add to that different support and logisitcs - and I would put the AFU numbers in Bakhmut and near it to around 40 000-45 000 men, if these units are close to be full, which may not be the case, considering the scale of the fighting.
I've also saw estimations, that after mobilization Ukraine possess around 450-500 infantry battalions. Forces listed above have around 40-50 infantry battalions (no clear info how much new battalions were created within regular brigades, but it's implied that there were at least one per brigade), so battalion number-wise Ukraine has at least 10% of all their military units around Bakhmut.
Ukraine has hit a building that is said to be the HQ for the Wagner group.
Ukrainian forces have struck a headquarters of Russia's Wagner mercenary group in eastern Ukraine, Luhansk's Ukrainian governor has said.
Serhiy Haidai said a hotel where the group was based in Kadiivka, Luhansk region, was hit. He added there were major Russian losses.
The BBC was unable to independently verify Wagner's presence at the hotel.
Wagner are state-sponsored mercenaries who act in the Kremlin's interests, according to Western experts.
The private military company, set up by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former restaurateur and close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly been accused of war crimes and human rights abuses.
Wagner units have previously been deployed in Crimea, Syria, Libya, Mali and the Central African Republic.
In the Kadiivka strike, Mr Haidai said Russia had suffered "significant losses" and he expected "at least 50%" of the surviving forces to die due to a lack of medical treatment."
The hit on the hotel came as the conflict also raged in Ukraine's south - with Russia launching drones at Odesa and Ukraine fighting back in Melitopol.
On Saturday, the Ukrainian army said it had shot down 10 drones, with another five hitting energy facilities - leaving some 1.5 million people without power.
"The situation in the Odesa region is very difficult," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly video address.
"Unfortunately the hits were critical, so it takes more than just time to restore electricity. It doesn't take hours, but a few days."
Key infrastructure was hit by Russia's Iran-made drones, according to Ukrainian officials.
In Melitopol, pro-Moscow authorities said a Ukrainian missile attack had killed two people and injured 10. Images shared by a Moscow-installed official there showed a big fire.
"Air defence systems destroyed two missiles, four reached their targets," Yevgeny Balitsky, the Russia-installed governor of the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region, said on the Telegram messaging app.
He added that a "recreation centre" where people were dining had been destroyed in the attack, and that Ukrainian forces had used US-supplied Himars rocket launchers.
This weapon has played a key role in Ukraine's counter-offensive, being used to target locations away from the frontlines, including Russia's command posts.
Ivan Fedorov, Melitopol's exiled mayor, said scores of "invaders" had been killed.
Melitopol has been under occupation since early March and is a major logistics hub for the Russian forces in the south-east.
The city, in the Zaporizhzhia region, is strategically located between Mariupol to the east, Kherson and the Dnipro River to the west, and Crimea to the south.
Ukraine says its efforts to retake occupied territory are continuing, despite the arrival of winter.
In recent weeks, most of the fighting has taken place in the east of the country, especially around the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.
But on Saturday night, Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to President Zelensky, indicated that Melitopol could be a main target of Ukrainian forces.
"If Melitopol falls, the entire defence line all the way to Kherson collapses," he said in an interview.
If that happened, he added, "Ukrainian forces would gain a direct route to Crimea," the peninsula Russia invaded and annexed in 2014 and that the Ukrainians have vowed to retake.
EPT
