NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
I've also read that the kamikaze drones are a lot less operable in the cold weather. Haven't been able to confirm that though.
On the note of Russian fighter jets, it appears that the Engels air force base in Russia has been bombed. It is located about 450 miles from the Ukrainian border and the current assumption is that it was drone bombed. While not a base for the fighter jets, I think I can safely assume that attacks like these are playing a role in deterring fighter jet usage
Engels air base is a base for strategic bombers (Tu-95/Tu-160). Currently there are rumors of 2 damaged airplanes, but no official statements, confirmation footage or satellite imagery yet. Whatever the damage was, it didn't stop today's missile strikes (though could have lessen the number of missiles a bit, but this is, again, a speculation).
One of the main problems with Russian jet strike capacities is low number of guided bombs. Russia has ton of cruise missiles of different variants, but lacking in guided bomb department. There are purposely-built guided bombs, like KAB-500 and KAB-1500, but they aren't produced in enough numbers, and Russian-developed version of JDAM, to make unguided bombs into guided ones, was buried in bureaucratic procedures and paperwork, and wasn't accepted into service by MoD, hence no production. I suspect one of the reason is that the most of the practical experience RuAF was getting is counter-guerillia warfare, where nothing more than a MANPADs and non-radar anti-air artillery was present, so targeting systems on the planes itself (like "Hephaestus" on Su-34) combined with huge quantities of Soviet-era ordnance were considered good enough for the job of bombing out some ISIL hideouts from 5+km altitude, where planes would be invulnerable to small AA fire, in the meanwhile being cheaper.
So when there was no need to stop AFU offensive, I assume RuAF commanders decided to lessen the risk of losing the multi-million dollar planes for nothing. Helos are better at taking out stuff like a single IFW or tank anyway.
I've also read that the kamikaze drones are a lot less operable in the cold weather. Haven't been able to confirm that though.
On the note of Russian fighter jets, it appears that the Engels air force base in Russia has been bombed. It is located about 450 miles from the Ukrainian border and the current assumption is that it was drone bombed. While not a base for the fighter jets, I think I can safely assume that attacks like these are playing a role in deterring fighter jet usage
Engels air base is a base for strategic bombers (Tu-95/Tu-160). Currently there are rumors of 2 damaged airplanes, but no official statements, confirmation footage or satellite imagery yet. Whatever the damage was, it didn't stop today's missile strikes (though could have lessen the number of missiles a bit, but this is, again, a speculation).
One of the main problems with Russian jet strike capacities is low number of guided bombs. Russia has ton of cruise missiles of different variants, but lacking in guided bomb department. There are purposely-built guided bombs, like KAB-500 and KAB-1500, but they aren't produced in enough numbers, and Russian-developed version of JDAM, to make unguided bombs into guided ones, was buried in bureaucratic procedures and paperwork, and wasn't accepted into service by MoD, hence no production. I suspect one of the reason is that the most of the practical experience RuAF was getting is counter-guerillia warfare, where nothing more than a MANPADs and non-radar anti-air artillery was present, so targeting systems on the planes itself (like "Hephaestus" on Su-34) combined with huge quantities of Soviet-era ordnance were considered good enough for the job of bombing out some ISIL hideouts from 5+km altitude, where planes would be invulnerable to small AA fire, in the meanwhile being cheaper.
So when there was no need to stop AFU offensive, I assume RuAF commanders decided to lessen the risk of losing the multi-million dollar planes for nothing. Helos are better at taking out stuff like a single IFW or tank anyway.
Thank you for the info!
Is there any chance that the expected three waves of missiles today will have a significant impact on what's left of Russia's missile supply? I am trying to find a source for the claim that Russia's first wave of missiles was around 115 launched.
Apparently Russia and Israel have had high level talks about Israel allowing weaponry to be transferred from Syria to Ukraine. Israel cant afford to rebuff Russia.
Russia has reportedly requested that Israel not intervene or impede its efforts to transfer defense equipment from Syria to Ukraine.
The Kan public broadcaster, citing an Israeli official involved in the issue, reported Sunday that Israeli and Russian officials have been holding conversations in recent days over the Kremlin’s concern.
The Russian embassy did not respond to the network’s request for comment.
While Israel and Russia have long coordinated their activities in Syrian airspace in order to avoid any clashes, ties have been strained since Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year.
Israel has conducted hundreds of strikes in Syria aimed at preventing Iran from establishing a military foothold there, and to stop its supply of advanced weapons to Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group, an Iranian proxy.
Russia, meanwhile, has provided thousands of troops and military hardware to its ally Syria, as the regime battles to suppress a grinding civil war.
In October, The New York Times reported that Russia was drawing down its forces in Syria amid supply constraints in its ongoing war in Ukraine, including removing the sophisticated S-300 air defense system that was a major threat to Israeli Air Force operations in the country.
While providing humanitarian assistance, Israel has maintained a strict policy of not providing military aid to Ukraine since Russian troops invaded on February 24, including systems that could help it intercept Russian missile and drone attacks.
One major reason for that policy appears to be Israel’s strategic need to maintain freedom of operations in Syria.
However, Jerusalem has recently seemed to warm to the idea of supplying defensive equipment, since Iran supplies the Kremlin with attack drones.
It is not clear whether presumed incoming prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will change course on the war.
I've also read that the kamikaze drones are a lot less operable in the cold weather. Haven't been able to confirm that though.
On the note of Russian fighter jets, it appears that the Engels air force base in Russia has been bombed. It is located about 450 miles from the Ukrainian border and the current assumption is that it was drone bombed. While not a base for the fighter jets, I think I can safely assume that attacks like these are playing a role in deterring fighter jet usage
Engels air base is a base for strategic bombers (Tu-95/Tu-160). Currently there are rumors of 2 damaged airplanes, but no official statements, confirmation footage or satellite imagery yet. Whatever the damage was, it didn't stop today's missile strikes (though could have lessen the number of missiles a bit, but this is, again, a speculation).
One of the main problems with Russian jet strike capacities is low number of guided bombs. Russia has ton of cruise missiles of different variants, but lacking in guided bomb department. There are purposely-built guided bombs, like KAB-500 and KAB-1500, but they aren't produced in enough numbers, and Russian-developed version of JDAM, to make unguided bombs into guided ones, was buried in bureaucratic procedures and paperwork, and wasn't accepted into service by MoD, hence no production. I suspect one of the reason is that the most of the practical experience RuAF was getting is counter-guerillia warfare, where nothing more than a MANPADs and non-radar anti-air artillery was present, so targeting systems on the planes itself (like "Hephaestus" on Su-34) combined with huge quantities of Soviet-era ordnance were considered good enough for the job of bombing out some ISIL hideouts from 5+km altitude, where planes would be invulnerable to small AA fire, in the meanwhile being cheaper.
So when there was no need to stop AFU offensive, I assume RuAF commanders decided to lessen the risk of losing the multi-million dollar planes for nothing. Helos are better at taking out stuff like a single IFW or tank anyway.
Thank you for the info!
Is there any chance that the expected three waves of missiles today will have a significant impact on what's left of Russia's missile supply? I am trying to find a source for the claim that Russia's first wave of missiles was around 115 launched.
I don't think any particular day matters regarding missile (or any other form of weapon used, actually) expenditure, since the war has been dragging for almost a year already, and missiles do fly from the day one, and strikes like today were numerous in the past. It's either we were running out of missiles for quite some time and this is a persistent issue (in that case, it should show itself soon enough), or we weren't, and this particular day, again, won't change that trend much. Of course there is no clear info on production, but I heard that many weapon production plants, including missile ones, have been working 3-shift-a-day 24/7 somewhere from spring already. If true, then that means that at least some stocks have been built in advance (since in spring Russia was still using the existing supply of missiles).
On December 05 2022 22:53 plasmidghost wrote: Fucking hell, Russia's fired a terrifying number of missiles into Ukraine in retaliation for the Engels AFB bombing. Following along with some of the war reporting accounts and it's highly worrying
Invade a country They fight back "We must retaliate"
In what world does that logic make any sense whatsoever? This whole thing is still so absurd and sad. Also, if launching those missiles would have made military sense, then Russia would already have done that before. So i guess we should be glad that they waste their capabilities on pointless terror attempts. Still horrific though.
Putin and his gang definitively deserve to be put on trial as war criminals. Sadly, that will never happen.
Update on Ukrainian estimates of the missiles fired today. Depending on the final count, this could be an interception rate of about 90%, but most likely around the 80-85% they've had up to now
On December 05 2022 22:53 plasmidghost wrote: Fucking hell, Russia's fired a terrifying number of missiles into Ukraine in retaliation for the Engels AFB bombing. Following along with some of the war reporting accounts and it's highly worrying
Invade a country They fight back "We must retaliate"
In what world does that logic make any sense whatsoever? This whole thing is still so absurd and sad. Also, if launching those missiles would have made military sense, then Russia would already have done that before. So i guess we should be glad that they waste their capabilities on pointless terror attempts. Still horrific though.
Putin and his gang definitively deserve to be put on trial as war criminals. Sadly, that will never happen.
From what I've read, those massive attacks take a few days to prepare so it wasn't in retaliation for an earlier Ukrainian attack on that airbase. It's only Russian propaganda spinning it that way to appease the pro-war crowd.
As for the timing of those attacks, it's not in Russia's best interest to throw everything at Ukraine at once. They use intervals of a few weeks because the idea is to strike shortly after Ukraine has managed to repair the damages.
If Zelensky's claim of 60 interceptions out of roughly 70 missiles is remotely accurate, that would indicate that Ukraine's AA defense has improved greatly. If further improvements can be made, it'd mean Russia's special terrorist operation is already a long-term failure, unless they ramp up the volume of missile strikes. At least that's my armchair analysis. Do we have sufficient reason to be this optimistic?
On December 06 2022 03:27 Magic Powers wrote: If Zelensky's claim of 60 interceptions out of roughly 70 missiles is remotely accurate, that would indicate that Ukraine's AA defense has improved greatly. If further improvements can be made, it'd mean Russia's special terrorist operation is already a long-term failure, unless they ramp up the volume of missile strikes. At least that's my armchair analysis. Do we have sufficient reason to be this optimistic?
I think so. Now that they got a ton of air defense systems from around the world, plus maybe Patriot systems from the US, there's a lot of reason to be optimistic
Confirmed that Russia has had to stop using Iranian drones due to the Cold weather.
Russia has stopped using Iranian-made kamikaze drones in Ukraine because they don't work in cold weather, a Ukrainian official said.
Yevgeny Silkin, of the Joint Forces Command for Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that Russia had stopped using the Iranian drones, which are made of plastic and other materials that are not frost resistant, according to Ukrainian news agency UNIAN.
The outlet said that the drones have not been used in Ukraine since November 17, which was also the first day that it snowed in Ukraine this year.
Winters in Ukraine can be cold, with mean temperatures often below freezing between December and March.
Russia started to use the Iranian drones in October, as part of a new playbook that targeted power distribution and other critical infrastructure from afar. Ukrainian civilians have also been killed by drone strikes.
Iran and Russia have denied any cooperation on weapons, but Iran later admitted that it had sent Russia weapons, adding that this was before Russia's invasion of Ukraine started.
Multiple reports and Western intelligence assessments have contradicted this.
The UK, US, and EU have put sanctions on the drone manufacturer and some individuals over supplying the weaponry to Russia.
CNN reported in November that Iran was preparing to send more weapons to Ukraine, including short range ballistic missiles. And it reported that Iran and Russia had reached an agreement for Russia to start producing the drones itself.
The UK's ministry of defense said on November 23 that Russia was likely running out of the drones, but that it could purchase more.
Multiple reports have also said that Iran has been training Russia on how to use the drones and other weapons.
On December 3rd, Avril Haines, the US National Intelligence Director, said that winter conditions are expected to slow the war, and that there was already a "reduced tempo."
That probably means we will transfer more and more of our T-72 and PT-91 to Ukraine as we receive new shipments. At the end our Leopards will go into storage and K2 and Abramses will be our core MBT.
That probably means we will transfer more and more of our T-72 and PT-91 to Ukraine as we receive new shipments. At the end our Leopards will go into storage and K2 and Abramses will be our core MBT.
I read somewhere that Poland means to buy up to 1000 Korean MBTs? Is that true and realistic? That would make Poland the largest land power in Europe pretty much.
On December 06 2022 21:49 zatic wrote: I read somewhere that Poland means to buy up to 1000 Korean MBTs? Is that true and realistic? That would make Poland the largest land power in Europe pretty much.
It's more of a technology transfer. I believe we're buying around 200 of Korean MBTs and the other 800 have the designations like K-2PL and K-9PL. This would indicate either modifications specific to Poland's needs or versions produced in Poland. This would make a lot of sense as it would be mutually beneficial for both Poland and Korea. Poland would have its own production line able to supply its needs and provide service to existing stock while Korea would have a base of operations for potential military equipment sales around Europe.
Here's a more in-depth look at it if you're interested:
From the article i posted: we intend to buy 180 K2 and 212 K9 and build 820 K2PL and 460 K9PL on license. Perhaps some of those will be for export if the agreement permits it.
On December 06 2022 21:49 zatic wrote: I read somewhere that Poland means to buy up to 1000 Korean MBTs? Is that true and realistic? That would make Poland the largest land power in Europe pretty much.
It's 'paper true' mostly to serve the next elections. In practice Poland can't afford that, couldn't man that many and lacks technical capability to produce. Plus the people calling the shots will likely change next year so we might see a complete 180 on this.
Poland bought only 180 Korean tanks. The rest are supposed to be Polish versions of the tank produced no earlier than 2026. I think our supreme leader really wants to achieve that unrealistic goal and told the government to do whatever is necessary, but it's not like we already paid for a thousand tanks.
6000 Russian soldiers are reported to have been lost in Bakhmut within just 2 weeks. An unimaginable rate. Total losses throughout the war are estimated to be 88 000.
EPT
