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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 301

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany7033 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-11-07 12:24:01
November 07 2022 12:16 GMT
#6001
And where would these Leopard 2 come from exactly? Makeiev seems to continue exactly where Melnyk left of...
It's not like we have an abundance of working Leopards 2 standing around somewhere.
I believe Poland for example has more working Leopards 2 than Germany. Why not ask them?

And how about some Swiss bashing for not delivering ammunition for a change?
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
Artesimo
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany565 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-11-07 14:05:34
November 07 2022 13:53 GMT
#6002
On November 07 2022 21:16 Harris1st wrote:
And where would these Leopard 2 come from exactly? Makeiev seems to continue exactly where Melnyk left of...
It's not like we have an abundance of working Leopards 2 standing around somewhere.
I believe Poland for example has more working Leopards 2 than Germany. Why not ask them?

And how about some Swiss bashing for not delivering ammunition for a change?


The difference is the tone, that the demands don't change is to be expected and okay. The problem with Melnyk was that towards the end, his unorthodox style seemed to have been more counterproductive when it came to public support. His harsh tone initially drove home the point and I defended it in this thread, even though I found some of his statements questionable. But later on it seemed the general public got tired of it/offended and it did more harm than good.


Swiss neutrality has to be expected and respected. It is unfortunate for ukraine, but it has been a consistent position for them. Furthermore, switzerlands role of neutrality has been of importance many times, being an acceptable mediator or place to meet for talks, many neutral organisations operate from there. Its feels shit in this position, but in the long run its probably much more important than having some more gepard ammo.

And the 12.500 shot from switzerland feel not that important anyway, given that the originally delivered 60.000 was considered to be scandalously low. It would be better to have them ofc, but if 60k is way too little, adding ~1/5th more to that doesn't really seem to change much. Hopefully this can be resolved in some other way. I know that switzerland has arms manufacturing outside of switzerland, which they have been scaling back over the past years. Maybe there is some swiss owned ammunition production ouside of switzerland that could be up for grabs to produce ammunition for the gepard by a different country.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11720 Posts
November 07 2022 15:40 GMT
#6003
On November 07 2022 21:16 Harris1st wrote:
And where would these Leopard 2 come from exactly? Makeiev seems to continue exactly where Melnyk left of...
It's not like we have an abundance of working Leopards 2 standing around somewhere.
I believe Poland for example has more working Leopards 2 than Germany. Why not ask them?

And how about some Swiss bashing for not delivering ammunition for a change?


However, i think a good step would be to say "Whoever wants to send Leopard 2 to Ukraine, can do so". At least then we wouldn't be the scapegoat for other countries not sending their shit.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9268 Posts
November 07 2022 16:20 GMT
#6004
Some cool, relatively fresh graphs of aid promised to Ukraine by country. Can use them to avoid pointing fingers in the wrong direction.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/?cookieLevel=not-set

I think we discussed data from the same source in the first months of the war.
You're now breathing manually
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17613 Posts
November 07 2022 22:12 GMT
#6005


Combat footage.

WARNING: some of it is pretty drastic.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
r00ty
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany1059 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-11-07 23:25:56
November 07 2022 23:17 GMT
#6006
I also don't get why people hate on Germany so much. Yeah we should do more, but i have yet to see somebody criticise France the same way and as often, whose overall support for Ukraine by % of GDP was about half that of Germany. France: 0,43% (1.145bn) compared to Germany: 0,85% (3.3bn). Don't want to point fingers just being realistic.
Maybe it's Macron being way more charismatic than Scholz? Or is it that we're the main target of Russian misinformation campaigns in Europe? I really don't know.

Source, the page Sent. posted: + Show Spoiler +
www.ifw-kiel.de
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5739 Posts
November 07 2022 23:57 GMT
#6007
Agreed. No point singling out Germany. Most countries helping Ukraine could do more. Probably all except the Baltics, who are punching way above their weight.
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation617 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-11-08 01:16:49
November 08 2022 01:15 GMT
#6008
On November 08 2022 08:17 r00ty wrote:
I also don't get why people hate on Germany so much. Yeah we should do more, but i have yet to see somebody criticise France the same way and as often, whose overall support for Ukraine by % of GDP was about half that of Germany. France: 0,43% (1.145bn) compared to Germany: 0,85% (3.3bn). Don't want to point fingers just being realistic.
Maybe it's Macron being way more charismatic than Scholz? Or is it that we're the main target of Russian misinformation campaigns in Europe? I really don't know.

Source, the page Sent. posted: + Show Spoiler +
www.ifw-kiel.de

Position on weapon sales I guess. I can think of a few points for that opinion in particular (if we compare with France):
1) Bundeswehr is still often percieved as top-1 ground force of Europe (though in reality this may not exactly be the case). So people expect more from such a big player.
2) While France is bigger arms exporter than Germany, French primary export is naval and air stuff (ships, planes, helos, anti-ship missiles, torpedoes etc.). Germany has that too, but their ground arms export component is much more prevalent (you may check stats here, just pick supplying countries and years).
https://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/trade_register.php
This may also be seen by the amount of countries operating German vehicles (especially Leopard 2). So with Ukraine war being mostly ground war people expect Germany to send more of this ground stuff they usually export.
3) Germany had much less participation in armed conflicts in recent years, unlike France which was regularly involved in African warfare (Mali, CAR, etc.) So they expected to have more stocks than France.
4) Many cases of Sholz and/or parliament blocking initiatives to send already present stuff to Ukraine (like those Marders Rheinmetal offered to send).
5) Questionable policies of sending modern vehicles (it's mostly about Leo 2) to Eastern European countries so they would send their old Soviet stuff to Ukraine. Understandable in short term, but now, when war is in attrition phase, logistical problems of delivery, training and maintenance is less of an excuse. Especially considering France and other countries with non-Soviet armaments sending their stuff directly.
6) A lot of stuff that Germany promised to Ukraine is only to be delivered in months/years.
For detailes on all that you may check this list, a ton of info there
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17613 Posts
November 08 2022 01:41 GMT
#6009
On November 08 2022 10:15 Ardias wrote:
3) Germany had much less participation in armed conflicts in recent years, unlike France which was regularly involved in African warfare (Mali, CAR, etc.) So they expected to have more stocks than France.

5) Questionable policies of sending modern vehicles (it's mostly about Leo 2) to Eastern European countries so they would send their old Soviet stuff to Ukraine. Understandable in short term, but now, when war is in attrition phase, logistical problems of delivery, training and maintenance is less of an excuse. Especially considering France and other countries with non-Soviet armaments sending their stuff directly.


Ad 3: I think Germany is more timid in such matters because of WWII. We all know it's in the past and Germany isn't really the same country any more but I guess some stigma still remains and everyone is watching any German involvement in any war rather warily. Might explain their reluctance.

Ad 5: Like it was mentioned previously, Leo 2 supply couldn't even meet demand before this war started (we're talking half a decade waiting lines for any potential deliveries). I imagine it isn't an easy task to send tanks into a warzone when you have multiple parties waiting for them to be delivered to them. Sure, everyone wants to help Ukraine, but we're talking multi-year multi-million international trade agreements here, not everyone would want to jeopardize that, put it on hold etc. Then you have not only involved nations to deal with but also citizens (as those deals are usually funded by tax money) who might be asking how their taxes are being spent and why ongoing war somewhere is being prioritized over strengthening their own army.

None of what I wrote above might be true but I thought I'd share my thoughts on the matter and how I see those things. I'm going to give Germany the benefit of the doubt as a rational player on the international scene and won't be assuming duplicitous intent. Perhaps one day we'll learn the full truth behind all of this.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11720 Posts
November 08 2022 06:15 GMT
#6010
Regarding Ardias' point 1:

1) Bwahahahahahaha. Literally no one in Germany perceives the Bundeswehr as a top tier military force, let alone the top military force in Europe.
Striker.superfreunde
Profile Joined May 2010
Germany1120 Posts
November 08 2022 06:37 GMT
#6011
On November 08 2022 10:41 Manit0u wrote:

Ad 3: I think Germany is more timid in such matters because of WWII. We all know it's in the past and Germany isn't really the same country any more but I guess some stigma still remains and everyone is watching any German involvement in any war rather warily. Might explain their reluctance.



Iirc, since ww2 germany was not allowed to have an army anymore. It changed a few decades later and we were allowed to have an army to protect oursels and partners. A devensive army. And it never changed since then.
And that is the reason why we werent involved in as many conflicts as other countrys. If we were involved we also did take the part of the supporter role. E.g in Afghanistan we took mainly care of medicinal aid, scouting and humanity aid for locals and kafor partners.
Additionel, we have a principal of proportionality. It basicly means that we only bring weapons to war which are _not_excessivly overpower the gear of the opposite (because we are just defending [ground, values]).
And thats the reason we never send the leo2 to any conflict at all. Its just meant to defend our country and partners (nato). So we never needed them thus far and thus they are very rare and out of shape.
'Your ak is pretty... uhm... dank!'
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation617 Posts
November 08 2022 06:50 GMT
#6012
On November 08 2022 10:41 Manit0u wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 08 2022 10:15 Ardias wrote:
3) Germany had much less participation in armed conflicts in recent years, unlike France which was regularly involved in African warfare (Mali, CAR, etc.) So they expected to have more stocks than France.

5) Questionable policies of sending modern vehicles (it's mostly about Leo 2) to Eastern European countries so they would send their old Soviet stuff to Ukraine. Understandable in short term, but now, when war is in attrition phase, logistical problems of delivery, training and maintenance is less of an excuse. Especially considering France and other countries with non-Soviet armaments sending their stuff directly.


Ad 3: I think Germany is more timid in such matters because of WWII. We all know it's in the past and Germany isn't really the same country any more but I guess some stigma still remains and everyone is watching any German involvement in any war rather warily. Might explain their reluctance.

Ad 5: Like it was mentioned previously, Leo 2 supply couldn't even meet demand before this war started (we're talking half a decade waiting lines for any potential deliveries). I imagine it isn't an easy task to send tanks into a warzone when you have multiple parties waiting for them to be delivered to them. Sure, everyone wants to help Ukraine, but we're talking multi-year multi-million international trade agreements here, not everyone would want to jeopardize that, put it on hold etc. Then you have not only involved nations to deal with but also citizens (as those deals are usually funded by tax money) who might be asking how their taxes are being spent and why ongoing war somewhere is being prioritized over strengthening their own army.

None of what I wrote above might be true but I thought I'd share my thoughts on the matter and how I see those things. I'm going to give Germany the benefit of the doubt as a rational player on the international scene and won't be assuming duplicitous intent. Perhaps one day we'll learn the full truth behind all of this.

3. I'm not blaming Germany or something here, just saying that people would expect more hefty stocks from them, in terms of ammunition at least, than from France. IIRC one French parliamentary, being head of some arms commitee, said in April that they have ammunition for 2-3 days of large-scale warfare. Combined with later info about only 6000 shells per year production for CAESAR, this seems real enough.

5. If we are talking about long-term contracts, maybe, but I believe at least with Slovenian T-55 and Greek BMP-1 there were no previous agreements about vehicle supplies, Germany only promised to send their vehicles to both countries if they send they Soviet-era stuff to Ukraine during the war. Considering how Marder 1A3 is superior to old BMP-1, the question "why those Marders weren't just sent to Ukraine directly?" isn't unreasonable. It wouldn't add much more strain to logistics, than there already is. Just a list from memory of what foreign vehicles Ukraine already has (not even including modified Soviet vehicles from Eastern Europe):
Self-propelled Arty: M109, Krab, PzH2000, CAESAR, DANA, Zuzana
MLRS: HIMARS, MARS, some French MLRS of 227mm caliber
Recon vehicle: Scimitar
Tracked APC: M113, YPR-765, Spartan
Wheeled APC: VAB, Saxon, XA-185, ACSV
MRAP: Wolfhound, Kipri, Bushmaster, MaxxPro, Mastiff

Won't even count HMMWV, Iveco and other automobile vehicles.

On November 08 2022 15:15 Simberto wrote:
Regarding Ardias' point 1:

1) Bwahahahahahaha. Literally no one in Germany perceives the Bundeswehr as a top tier military force, let alone the top military force in Europe.

Since we are talking about "blaming the Germany", it's more about outside perception of Germany and its Armed Forces, and a lot of people who aren't digging in Bundeswehr issues still percieve it as a mighty force from the 80's.
Though I agree with you about actual level of readiness of it.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10834 Posts
November 08 2022 07:43 GMT
#6013
No serious source had any praise for the german military in decades. I don't know where you read or heard that bs but its comically inaccurate.
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria835 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-11-08 08:58:14
November 08 2022 08:46 GMT
#6014
Yeah, I'm not sure what sources you read Ardias but as a European I never thought of German army as strong after WW2. Germany doesn't even have nukes unlike UK and France. If German army was any good, Scholz & co wouldn't have announced huge budget to modernise Germany's army.

E.g. have a look here in terms of numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO#Military_personnel
Germany's military spending is well below NATO's 2% target. Even Bulgaria with poorer economy has a higher % in terms of spending.

Spending: statista

Edit: I don't know why Germany spends less, I can only guess it's due to WW2 history. Maybe Germans who follow news more closely could confirm/deny this.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11720 Posts
November 08 2022 09:06 GMT
#6015
There are two factors to this:

Firstly, we felt safe. All of our neighbours are allies or Switzerland. We simply did not really see a need for a big military for defense, and thus any money spent on it was seen as a waste and was hugely unpopular here.

Secondly, the military is simply not that popular. A military which intervenes abroad is not something we feel comfortable with due to history, and we only do it in absolutely clear-cut cases, or in those cases where our alliances force us to. The military is not totally unpopular either, but the whole "serve the country" thing is not how we view it. And once again, this means that we don't like to spend money on the military that could be spend on literally anything else.
StorrZerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States13919 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-11-08 10:34:29
November 08 2022 10:32 GMT
#6016
1 is a poor point. Just because Germany isnt adjacent to an unfriendly state doest mean they should be delinquent on their military. Kind of a shit thing to do to your allies. Join a defense pact and not meet your minimum spending requirements on military. I get why it was unpopular and why it was easy to become complacent. However since Germany is such a prosperous European country, id love to see them taking a bigger stand. Send the tanks.
Hwaseung Oz fan for life. Swing out, always swing out.
r00ty
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany1059 Posts
November 08 2022 10:37 GMT
#6017
On November 08 2022 18:06 Simberto wrote:
There are two factors to this:

Firstly, we felt safe. All of our neighbours are allies or Switzerland. We simply did not really see a need for a big military for defense, and thus any money spent on it was seen as a waste and was hugely unpopular here.

Secondly, the military is simply not that popular. A military which intervenes abroad is not something we feel comfortable with due to history, and we only do it in absolutely clear-cut cases, or in those cases where our alliances force us to. The military is not totally unpopular either, but the whole "serve the country" thing is not how we view it. And once again, this means that we don't like to spend money on the military that could be spend on literally anything else.


This. But the history plays a big role too of course. When it started i couldn't even imagine Germany sending weapons to Ukraine to fight Russians. My family was very much involved in WW2 and warcrimes in the east and it freaked me out. That changed of course and i'm all for sending anything necessary to end this war as soon as possible.

Sorry to all the eastern European guys who expected more support in the beginnning, but it's complicated...
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany7033 Posts
November 08 2022 12:16 GMT
#6018
On November 08 2022 19:32 StorrZerg wrote:
1 is a poor point. Just because Germany isnt adjacent to an unfriendly state doest mean they should be delinquent on their military. Kind of a shit thing to do to your allies. Join a defense pact and not meet your minimum spending requirements on military. I get why it was unpopular and why it was easy to become complacent. However since Germany is such a prosperous European country, id love to see them taking a bigger stand. Send the tanks.


I believe Trump was up our ass for a long time because of the subpar spending on military.
Fact is, the Bundeswehr is in shambles and has been for decades. Germany couldn't have defended its territory like UA did without ample warning time.
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria835 Posts
November 08 2022 13:21 GMT
#6019


I see huge intellectual decline here. Even if Russia decided to be good from tomorrow, it would take decades to get some of population educated and properly thinking. Problem of Russia isn't that it needs more land (they won't get Ukraine). Instead, it's that education is bad (too much TV brainwashing going on) and democracy is at very low level. "Be silent and live your life" seems to be lifestyle over there based on what I've seen so far. It's disgusting to me listen to people like the ones from interview above, it's like I'm listening to Goebbels or some nazi bs.
Broetchenholer
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany1950 Posts
November 08 2022 13:26 GMT
#6020
Also, the 2 % spending is a guideline that is not as relevant for everyone. Not every nation needs the same from a defensive pact. Germany has no overseas areas to defend for example. For the States to ask Germany to increase their military spending was seen, rightfully so, as ridiculous, because Germany only wants to protect the northatlantic and itself, not project power to the chinese sea or to the middle east. However, seeing how close to our "sphere of influence" conflict has come and how woefully unprepared our forces are, german popular opinion has shifted and political will therefore as well. I think it is fair for european countries to ask for similar commitments to defense, but even then the different size of the budget does not mean every country needs the same percentage of that budget.
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