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On October 03 2022 00:21 skiekai wrote: All Italian media ara saying 'Russia has cut gas forniture to Italy' etc. etc. Reality is Russian gas arrived in Austria, and Austria is blocking it for 'burocratic reasons'. But Russia is considered responsible for it. Every day it is like this: many half-truths, said in such a way as to modify their meanings
I'm Italian. And all iternational information in Italy are USA-centerd. So if I should believe Italian media, Putin is the great devil, and Usa is fighting for democracy and freedom.
But after 20 years of fact-checking (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libia, Syria), I stopped to believe to mainsteam media, because it is like living in a TV serie with a meaningless plot. Full of villains (Gheddafi, Saddam, Osama, Putin) that commit crimes without any sense and with a good protagonist (USA) who has to intervene to bring justice. It's a sad fairy tale, but is not true. And the alternative story, the one written by the other side, is even sadder (because WE are the villains), but at least is realistic.
So my humble opinion is:
- Russia has not sabotaged their own infrastructure (in the same way as Russia has not stopped to send gas to Italy).
- The atomic threat is real, but it will not be Russia to begin using it in Europe.
- There is a deliberate will to force Europe in a forced energetic crisis, indipendent of the russian war. The USA prohibition to open north stream 2, the delays in turbine repairs, the sabotage of the north stream, the price increase regardless of the Russian price, all point in the same direction
- I think it is grotesque that NATO categorically refuses to consider the possibility that Russian minorities can decide by whom they want to be governed. And continue to talk about justice and democracy. And I'm not just talking about now, but the years leading up to this war.
Just to be clear: Gazprom shut off the gas. It may be over bureaucracy involving Austria, but according to the Austrians it's the usual annual regulation update that Gazprom is refusing to sign. So either you think Austria is fucking Italy over by trying to change their regulations, or Gazprom is playing "dumb"... and intentionally stopped sending gas, citing a nonsense bureaucratic technicality.
Now I know which of those two explanations I believe...
Apparently even such obvious attempts at sowing division between EU members are somewhat effective.
Returning briefly to Nordstream, the only scenario in which gas goes down that in the next decade is a full regime change in Russia and the money from the gas being used for reparations to Ukraine. Putin likes to double down to unify support behind himself, destroying it prevents it from being used in peace talks.
On October 03 2022 01:30 KwarK wrote: Returning briefly to Nordstream, the only scenario in which gas goes down that in the next decade is a full regime change in Russia and the money from the gas being used for reparations to Ukraine. Putin likes to double down to unify support behind himself, destroying it prevents it from being used in peace talks.
I don't know, maybe I'm to pessimistic but I could see Europe essentially forgive Russia after they are out of Ukraine and being completely open to resuming the gas like nothing happened just to help get their economies back to something resembling normal.
On October 03 2022 00:21 skiekai wrote: - I think it is grotesque that NATO categorically refuses to consider the possibility that Russian minorities can decide by whom they want to be governed. And continue to talk about justice and democracy. And I'm not just talking about now, but the years leading up to this war.
It's only ever been 2 regions that Putin claimed want to be part of Russia, Luhansk and Donetsk. Yet Russia have annexed 4.
These regions that all want to join Russia just happen to include nearly all of Ukraine's coastline and ports.
And all four regions apparently had a 96% majority vote for joining Russia, despite half the population having fled the country and large parts of those areas being under the control of Ukraine's army. How is it possible for all the people in these regions to have voted?
On October 03 2022 01:30 KwarK wrote: Returning briefly to Nordstream, the only scenario in which gas goes down that in the next decade is a full regime change in Russia and the money from the gas being used for reparations to Ukraine. Putin likes to double down to unify support behind himself, destroying it prevents it from being used in peace talks.
I don't know, maybe I'm to pessimistic but I could see Europe essentially forgive Russia after they are out of Ukraine and being completely open to resuming the gas like nothing happened just to help get their economies back to something resembling normal.
I agree on a resumption of imports after the conflict ends but it won’t be unconditional. As I’ve said here a hundred times before, Russia is just as dependent on Europe. The western gas fields can’t send their gas anywhere but Europe, that’s where the pipeline goes. They either sell to Europe, burn it at the field, or cap the wells entirely. Russia’s strong preference will be to resume sales at any price to fix their economic issues. Ukraine needs funds for reparations and reconstruction, Germany needs gas but is more than willing to pay for it, Russia needs euros and a European buyer for their gas. The logical conclusion is that some of the gas sales go to Ukraine.
Looks like Ukraine is getting closer to taking back (the ruins of) Severodonetsk. Crazy how much things have changed since Ukraine withdrew from that city.
On October 03 2022 00:21 skiekai wrote: - I think it is grotesque that NATO categorically refuses to consider the possibility that Russian minorities can decide by whom they want to be governed. And continue to talk about justice and democracy. And I'm not just talking about now, but the years leading up to this war.
It's only ever been 2 regions that Putin claimed want to be part of Russia, Luhansk and Donetsk. Yet Russia have annexed 4.
These regions that all want to join Russia just happen to include nearly all of Ukraine's coastline and ports.
And all four regions apparently had a 96% majority vote for joining Russia, despite half the population having fled the country and large parts of those areas being under the control of Ukraine's army. How is it possible for all the people in these regions to have voted?
Doesn't ANY of that strike you as odd?
Yeah, that is utter nonsense. This shit is against international law, and for a good reason. You can't just invade a country, then have your soldiers do a "referendum" that determines that most people would rather be part of russia than being shot, and then declare that annexation is the will of the people.
Changing borders through referenda is hard enough to do well in peacetime. In wartime, it is absurd.
skiekai, you are either paid by Russia, or you are falling for their disinformation campaign hard. In the first case, sucks to be you, because Russia is losing. In the second case, dude. Get your shit together.
On October 03 2022 00:21 skiekai wrote: All Italian media ara saying 'Russia has cut gas forniture to Italy' etc. etc. Reality is Russian gas arrived in Austria, and Austria is blocking it for 'burocratic reasons'. But Russia is considered responsible for it. Every day it is like this: many half-truths, said in such a way as to modify their meanings
I'm Italian. And all iternational information in Italy are USA-centerd. So if I should believe Italian media, Putin is the great devil, and Usa is fighting for democracy and freedom.
But after 20 years of fact-checking (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libia, Syria), I stopped to believe to mainsteam media, because it is like living in a TV serie with a meaningless plot. Full of villains (Gheddafi, Saddam, Osama, Putin) that commit crimes without any sense and with a good protagonist (USA) who has to intervene to bring justice. It's a sad fairy tale, but is not true. And the alternative story, the one written by the other side, is even sadder (because WE are the villains), but at least is realistic.
So my humble opinion is:
- Russia has not sabotaged their own infrastructure (in the same way as Russia has not stopped to send gas to Italy).
- The atomic threat is real, but it will not be Russia to begin using it in Europe.
- There is a deliberate will to force Europe in a forced energetic crisis, indipendent of the russian war. The USA prohibition to open north stream 2, the delays in turbine repairs, the sabotage of the north stream, the price increase regardless of the Russian price, all point in the same direction
- I think it is grotesque that NATO categorically refuses to consider the possibility that Russian minorities can decide by whom they want to be governed. And continue to talk about justice and democracy. And I'm not just talking about now, but the years leading up to this war.
Piece of advice: whatever sources you are now reading: STOP! You are quite clearly being fed utter bullshit, lies and straight up russian propaganda.
The Idea that the West will be the first ones to use nukes is the most unhinged part of that. The US is already winning big and has no reason to change anything about the status quo. The war is the cheapest way to fight Russian influence in the world that it has ever seen. America massively benefits from the current status quo. Why would the US toss all its chips into the center for the tinnest reward that shutting down an already shut down Nord stream bring? Why would the west start firing nukes when its winning incredibly. Even if Ukraine is overrun in the next year Russia is seriously crippled and could never hold Ukraine for more than another year.
I'm supportive of separatist movements. Peaceful separatist movements are nothing like violent separatist movements. Northern Ireland should be allowed to join Ireland. Scotland should be allowed to vote to leave the UK. Catalonia and the basque should be allowed to vote to leave their countries. If the Southern states wanted to keep slavery more than staying in the union I would have been for allowing them to vote to do so in the Civil war. The moment they started firing on fort sumpter the situation was never going to be the same. The Donbas and Luhansk will never be the same and will never heal 100% from this long war. UN peacekeepers alongside significant Chinese and United states contingents along the border while a vote is managed after the Olympics would have been something I would have supported allowing these regions to go to russia. A Chinese-mediated end to the conflict is something You'll see me advocate for repeatedly. I do not have much love for the Chinese government, but I love peace more than any distaste I would have for this outcome.
Could you imagine the world outrage if the United States held an election in Iraq for three separate states to join the Union? If we even held a referendum for them to become the same as Puerto Rico or even just "territories of the united states".What if we just held a vote in the north for a Kurdistan nation to be formed with its capitol in Mosul in the post ISIS invasion? And we have always supported international observers for Iraqi elections.
On October 03 2022 02:46 Sermokala wrote: The Idea that the West will be the first ones to use nukes is the most unhinged part of that. The US is already winning big and has no reason to change anything about the status quo. The war is the cheapest way to fight Russian influence in the world that it has ever seen. America massively benefits from the current status quo. Why would the US toss all its chips into the center for the tinnest reward that shutting down an already shut down Nord stream bring? Why would the west start firing nukes when its winning incredibly. Even if Ukraine is overrun in the next year Russia is seriously crippled and could never hold Ukraine for more than another year.
I'm supportive of separatist movements. Peaceful separatist movements are nothing like violent separatist movements. Northern Ireland should be allowed to join Ireland. Scotland should be allowed to vote to leave the UK. Catalonia and the basque should be allowed to vote to leave their countries. If the Southern states wanted to keep slavery more than staying in the union I would have been for allowing them to vote to do so in the Civil war. The moment they started firing on fort sumpter the situation was never going to be the same. The Donbas and Luhansk will never be the same and will never heal 100% from this long war. UN peacekeepers alongside significant Chinese and United states contingents along the border while a vote is managed after the Olympics would have been something I would have supported allowing these regions to go to russia. A Chinese-mediated end to the conflict is something You'll see me advocate for repeatedly. I do not have much love for the Chinese government, but I love peace more than any distaste I would have for this outcome.
Could you imagine the world outrage if the United States held an election in Iraq for three separate states to join the Union? If we even held a referendum for them to become the same as Puerto Rico or even just "territories of the united states".What if we just held a vote in the north for a Kurdistan nation to be formed with its capitol in Mosul in the post ISIS invasion? And we have always supported international observers for Iraqi elections.
I think the Confederate take is a bad one unless the vote was open to the slave population too. Allowing a minority to make a decision to enslave the population isn’t a democracy.
So it appears the Kherson region is quite possibly becoming a route and defenses are desperately need of fortifying but can't due to supplies, or even the number of troops. With the East, South, and North fronts reportedly collapsed.
Also Denmark to send more weapons to Ukraine, not sure if this is the same that was part of the four(?) country coalition sending Howitzers or not. Or just listing it as another package entirely as they are separate.
On October 03 2022 06:04 plasmidghost wrote: Listening to Putin's speech on Friday was genuinely terrifying and put a lot of things in perspective for me.
I burned a lot of goodwill with other leftists by supporting Ukraine and as the war went on, it was rather unnerving how many of them outright supported genocide. Friday, Putin outright said that if he wins, me and every other trans person that happens to be subject to him will suffer immensely. I cannot for the life of me understand why so many leftists openly support an imperialist fascist like Putin just because Russia used to be the Soviet Union. As much as I wish it wasn't true, it's been gone for 30 years and the fascists and capitalists have completely taken over. I hope that every Russian soldier that willingly signed up to fight or killed or destroyed in Ukraine meets a fate worse than death.
It’s just contrarian philosophy disguised as liberated perspectives. If the US is fighting someone, all the edge lord leftists on Twitter assume it’s some kinda evil imperialism intended to destroy the world. I think many of these people are so entrenched in the belief that the US is evil that they aren’t able to recognize when the the US are unequivocally the good guys in a given situation.
On October 03 2022 06:04 plasmidghost wrote: Listening to Putin's speech on Friday was genuinely terrifying and put a lot of things in perspective for me.
I burned a lot of goodwill with other leftists by supporting Ukraine and as the war went on, it was rather unnerving how many of them outright supported genocide. Friday, Putin outright said that if he wins, me and every other trans person that happens to be subject to him will suffer immensely. I cannot for the life of me understand why so many leftists openly support an imperialist fascist like Putin just because Russia used to be the Soviet Union. As much as I wish it wasn't true, it's been gone for 30 years and the fascists and capitalists have completely taken over. I hope that every Russian soldier that willingly signed up to fight or killed or destroyed in Ukraine meets a fate worse than death.
The USSR was never a champions of leftist ideals. It was always a genocidal empire. It also used slave work extensively. If you wish it was still around (unless I misunderstood what you meant), you should probably do some reading:
On October 03 2022 06:04 plasmidghost wrote: Listening to Putin's speech on Friday was genuinely terrifying and put a lot of things in perspective for me.
I burned a lot of goodwill with other leftists by supporting Ukraine and as the war went on, it was rather unnerving how many of them outright supported genocide. Friday, Putin outright said that if he wins, me and every other trans person that happens to be subject to him will suffer immensely. I cannot for the life of me understand why so many leftists openly support an imperialist fascist like Putin just because Russia used to be the Soviet Union. As much as I wish it wasn't true, it's been gone for 30 years and the fascists and capitalists have completely taken over. I hope that every Russian soldier that willingly signed up to fight or killed or destroyed in Ukraine meets a fate worse than death.
I'm just curious what examples of their "outright supported genocide" or "openly support an imperialist fascist like Putin" would be?
Feels like it would take some impressive mental gymnastics for anyone on the left to advocate the genocide of Ukrainians, it has been my experience that these instances are typically more reflective of unscrupulous interpretation.
EPT
